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The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I find the financial moves that TSLA has made recently, very smart. They took advantage of the current high price to raise an additional $5BILLION in capital. That is a BIG chunk of cash. They were COY about the timing of when the shares would be sold.......and......than went out and raised ALL the money IMMEDIATELY. VERY SMART.........someone at that company has some REAL feel for business. Their timing was exquisite in locking in this $5BILLION strengthening of their balance sheet.

    This little article was published on September 1, 2020.........a good HIND-SIGHT view of a good financial move by TSLA.

    Tesla to sell up to $5 billion in stock amid its incredible rally

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/tesla-to-sell-up-to-5-billion-in-stock-amid-rally.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Amid Tesla’s incredible rise that has seen shares soar to new highs, the electric auto maker said Tuesday it will sell up to $5 billion in new stock.

    The additional shares will be sold “from time to time” and “at-the-market” prices, Tesla said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It said banks will sell shares based on directives from Tesla.

    We intend to use the net proceeds, if any, from this offering to further strengthen our balance sheet, as well as for general corporate purposes,” Tesla said.

    The stock briefly traded in the green on Tuesday, but moved lower throughout afternoon trading and ended the session 4.67% lower.

    The decline hardly dents shares’ rapid appreciation this year. Through Monday’s close, the electric car maker has gained nearly 500% in 2020. In the last year, shares have gained 1,004% compared with the S&P 500′s 20% rise.

    Tesla’s run-up has only gained steam since the company announced its 5-for-1 stock split on Aug. 11. In that time, Tesla shares have rallied 81.3%. That gain includes a 12.6% pop on Monday, when the split took effect. That rise came even though stock splits are purely cosmetic, meaning nothing about the company’s underlying business changes.

    Tesla’s market cap now stands around $464 billion meaning the new offering represents about 1% of the company’s value, according to FactSet.

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the capital raise a “smart move,” citing strong appetite among investors to “play the transformational EV trend through pure play Tesla over the coming years.”

    CEO Elon Musk is “raising enough capital to get the balance sheet and capital structure to further firm up its growing cash position and slowly get out of its debt situation, which throws the lingering bear thesis for Tesla out the window for now,” Ives added. Wedbush has a neutral rating on the stock and a base target of $380.

    Part of Tesla’s share appreciation is due to the company reporting its fourth straight quarter of profits in its July 22 report, which qualifies the electric auto maker for inclusion in the S&P 500. Tesla also posted better-than-expected second-quarter vehicle deliveries.

    Still, the rate at which investors have piled into the company has left many on the Street puzzled.

    Miller Tabak chief market strategist Matt Maley warned that shares are due for a pullback. Those “who buy stock in TSLA on the new $5bn equity distribution they announced this morning are going to get burned,” he said.

    “Even if this stock rallies a bit more over the next week or two, it’s going to be trading at least 30% below today’s level before the end of the year in our opinion,” he added.

    On Monday night, RBC reiterated its underperform rating on the stock, calling the automaker “fundamentally overvalued.” However, the firm did raise its price target from $170 to $290.

    Tesla last tapped capital markets in February, when it announced a $2 billion common stock offering. The announcement came just two weeks after Musk said during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call that he had no intention of raising capital.

    “We’re spending money as quickly as we can spend it sensibly,” Musk said on Jan. 29. “We are not artificially limiting our progress. Despite all that, we are still generating positive cash. In light of that, it doesn’t make sense to raise money because we expect to generate cash despite this growth level.”

    MY COMMENT

    A PERFECT financial move. That is one more reason that I like this......very young......company. They seem to make the right moves at the right time....over and over. I.......DO......consider this stock a somewhat speculative investment. SO.......it is NOT a company that I would BET THE FARM. BUT......the moves they make......continue to be very nicely done. I have NO plans to add to my position which is 60 shares.......post-split.
     
    #2041 WXYZ, Sep 8, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2020
  2. roadtonowhere08

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    When you sold, I sold. Made about 15% profit. Though none of what you say is actual financial advice, I thank you anyway :banana:
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes.......I dont give financial advice. GLAD you got out in a timely manor and made some nice money in the process.

    TERRIBLE markets today. BUT......that is part of being a long term investor. You ENJOY the good times and ride out the bad days. MY account today.......ALL RED.....except for NIKE. My single green holding. THE SP500 kicked my butt by a WHOPPING 1.6%. Understandable with my concentrated portfolio.

    I talk about MUCH day to day stuff......but.......really not relevant to long term investing. As a long term investor I KNOW there will be times......perhaps even as long as a year or two or three......when I have to just SIT through corrections and BEAR MARKETS. That is just part of the process and REALITY. NOT a bad thing because......to capture the BIG GAINS......you have to be invested and NOT trying to GUESS when to get in and out of the markets. ONE wrong guess and you can DAMAGE your long term performance by a HEFTY amount over the long term.

    OFTEN.......is is during a BEAR MARKET....that the big gains are teed up. If your stocks and funds pay dividends and capital gains you are.......of course.....reinvesting those dividends and capital gains at bargain prices. This is a BIG DRIVER of compounding and gains when the markets INEVITABLY recover. I STRONGLY believe and follow this little bit of data:

    "From 1930–2019, dividend income's contribution to the total return of the S&P 500 Index averaged 42%."

    Personally......I do NOT consider these little drops.....such as now......as corrections. I just have an issue with calling some little week or two event a correction or a bear market. I TYPICALLY use the standard definitions of a correction being a drop of 10% or more and a bear market being a drop of 20% or more......BUT......for me personally....it needs to last more than just a few days or a few weeks. NOT that it matters what you call it.
     
    #2043 WXYZ, Sep 8, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2020
  4. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Happy days - super sale days are here!!
    As expected my tech positions are down today but I’m overall still VERY pleased with ALL my tech positions and... surprise surprise.. my DIS has FINALLY made it through the pandemic losses. Woo hoo!
    So now it’s just a matter of time for me to see how low this goes... another 5%... 10%?... 15%??? I’ll just wait till Friday and decide if I add another instalment to my positions....
    As far as tsla is concerned.. well I couldn’t wait and added a few more shares today... I’m gonna go heavy on it every week now until i sense a bottom. I love tsla and made 800% profit on my initial investment so that’s good enough for me...
    Enjoy and let’s all make... no... invest money!
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes.....Zukodany.......good to be an "investor".

    HERE is the DANGER for the current Robinhood guys. YES.......you need confidence to be a good investor. BUT......that confidence MUST come from being REALITY BASED. One big factor in reality is NOT thinking you are the worlds greatest investor when YOU are simply being carried along by a MASSIVE RALLY and as a result.......can do no wrong.

    Captain of stock-market ‘retail bros’ says he’s ‘cool as the other side of the pillow’ as Nasdaq plunges into correction at record speed

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...rd-speed-11599600561?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Outspoken Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, who has suggested that he’s better suited to the current investing environment than legendary long-range investor Warren Buffett, was licking his wounds on Tuesday but appears to describe himself as bowed but unbroken in a Twitter message.

    Down $700k and cool as the other side of the pillow,” indicated Portnoy on the social-media platform, also making reference to the Twitter hashtag #DDTG, or Davey Day Trader Global.

    “It’s ugly out there but this is when the suits want you to panic. I won’t,” Portnoy also said of Tuesday’s brutal action, which extended a withering decline for the broader market and in particular the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -4.11%, which fell into correction, commonly defined as a decline of at least 10% but not more than 20% from a recent peak, marking its fastest slide from a record high to a correction in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Portnoy has become the face of the fervor for speculative appetite in this age of investing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A Financial Times story described Portnoy as prominent among a new breed of investors of the mind that stocks only move in one direction: upward. “Retail bros,” the FT calls them.

    “To steal a line from my crypto friends, you can’t have weak hands. If you have weak hands, this game is not for you, it’s not for you. Do you see my hands shaking? I’m down $700 grand. I lost like $4 million in a f—king blink,” he said, referring to speculative investors in cryptocurrencies, who embrace a uniquely aggressive buy-and-hold strategy.

    The Nasdaq Composite’s drop also came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.24% skidded 2.3% to mark its worst three-day decline since June 12, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.77% tumbled 2.8% to put it down nearly 7%, or less than 3 percentage points, from its Sept. 2 record. The broad-market index is now trading back below its Feb. 19 peak before the coronavirus crisis crumbled buying enthusiasm on Wall Street."

    MY COMMENT

    SO......he lost $700,000 today and has total losses of $4,000,000. THAT........should say something to all the FOLLOWERS......young male gamblers.......that are day trading along with him. He can probably afford to lose.......THEY probably can not. Perhaps this stock trading STUFF.........is NOT so easy after all. It is very easy to beat.......old Warren Buffett.......for a few months. NOT so easy....to beat him or any experienced investor over a longer time period. ESPECIALLY.......day trading.
     
  6. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Dave Portnoy takes the “tool” out of “barstool”. What a guy...
    Nice little open today.. but I still think we will end up in the red either by close or tomorrow.
    Quick note to all - moving companies and truck rentals are absolutely INSANE in NY right now. INSANE!
    We’re moving to Ohio to expand the business at the end of the month and my moving guy had just called me today to tell me they are having hard time securing a truck. The truck rental companies are simply out of inventory! And he went through ALL of them... hertz, budget, Penske... the works. Everyday now we are seeing more and more uhaul trucks and PODS in the street and sure enough - this happens. I would’ve be surprised if we’d see a bump with the big moving companies and even some car rentals because of that
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Hey Zukodany.

    Are you moving to Ohio to live there for good? Or just going to expand your business there and continue to live in NY? If moving to Ohio as your personal residence.......are you going to keep your property and businesses in NY?

    YES.....nice open today.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THIS.....is moving the markets.......a little bit:

    "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
    For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, September 9, 2020 USDL-20-1691
    Technical information: (202) 691-5870 • [email protected]www.bls.gov/jlt
    Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • [email protected]

    JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JULY 2020

    The number of job openings increased to 6.6 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of
    Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 5.8 million in July. Total separations was little
    changed at 5.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 2.1 percent while the layoffs and
    discharges rate decreased to 1.2 percent. These changes in the labor market reflected an ongoing
    resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
    and efforts to contain it. T
    his release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires,
    and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by four geographic regions.

    Job Openings

    On the last business day of July, the number and rate of job openings increased to 6.6 million
    (+617,000) and 4.5 percent, respectively. Job openings rose in a number of industries, with the largest
    increases in retail trade (+172,000), health care and social assistance (+146,000), and construction
    (+90,000). The number of job openings increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________
    | Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on July 2020 JOLTS Data |
    | |
    |Data collection for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey was affected by the coronavirus |
    |(COVID-19) pandemic. More information is available at the end of this news release and at |
    |www.bls.gov/covid19/job-openings-and-labor-turnover-covid19-july-2020.htm. |
    |_______________________________________________________________________________________________|

    Hires

    In July, the number and rate of hires decreased to 5.8 million (-1,183,000) and 4.1 percent, respectively.
    Over the year, the hires level was little changed. Hires decreased in a number of industries, with the
    largest fall in accommodation and food services (-599,000), followed by other services (-143,000), and
    health care and social assistance (-137,000). Hires increased in federal government (+33,000), largely
    because of Census hiring. Hires also increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+26,000). The
    number of hires decreased in all four regions. (See table 2.)

    Separations

    Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is
    referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore,
    the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and
    discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations
    due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

    In July, the number and rate of total separations was little changed at 5.0 million and 3.6 percent,
    respectively. Total separations increased in retail trade (+112,000) and in state and local government
    education (+49,000). The number of total separations decreased in durable goods manufacturing
    (-44,000). Total separations was little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

    In July, the number and rate of quits increased to 2.9 million (+344,000) and 2.1 percent, respectively.
    Quits increased in retail trade (+152,000), professional and business services (+98,000), and state and
    local government education (+35,000). The number of quits increased in the Midwest and West regions.
    (See table 4.)

    The number and rate of layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.7 million (-274,000) and 1.2 percent,
    respectively in July. The layoffs and discharges level decreased in durable goods manufacturing
    (-40,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-40,000), and wholesale trade (-21,000). The
    number of layoffs and discharges decreased in the Northeast and South regions. (See table 5.)

    The number of other separations was little changed in July at 337,000. Other separations increased in a
    few industries, with the largest increases in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+35,000) and state
    and local government education (+16,000). Other separations decreased in health care and social
    assistance (-22,000). Other separations was little changed in all four regions. (See table 6.)

    Net Change in Employment

    Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net
    employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of
    hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.
    Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even
    if the hires level is steady or rising.

    Over the 12 months ending in July, hires totaled 70.2 million and separations totaled 78.5 million,
    yielding a net employment loss of 8.2 million. These totals include workers who may have been hired
    and separated more than once during the year."

    MY COMMENT

    BOLD above is mine. ABOVE is the actual release from the US Bureau Of Labor Statistics. This is not normally a big data item........but.........whatever. I doubt that this will be a big driver of the markets one way or the other today.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    POOR BOEING........the hits just keep on coming. This company is a DISASTER. A CLASSIC case......in my opinion.....of disconnected management and management malpractice. TOO MUCH....focus on saving money.......off shoring manufacturing.......splintering manufacturing of parts and components to locations around the world........hiring FOREIGN workers and engineering and tech.......moving the ELITES (executives) from Seattle to Chicago and isolating them from their best engineers........etc, etc, etc. A classic case study in the..........temporary, hopefully..........destruction of a good company.

    Boeing discloses new flaw with 787 jet as problems mount

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/business/boeing-787-flaw-orders-deliveries/index.html

    I briefly thought about this stock a few weeks ago.......but.......after a quick look at their current situation..........RAN AWAY as quickly as i could. At some point it will be time to buy this stock.......but.......probably NOT for me, what is now apparent with this FORMER.......HIGH CLASS......company is just pathetic and a total SHAME.
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Yes we are moving out. For good!
    Our properties and business are still here in NY and they’re not going anywhere. We have a property manager watching over and he’s an incredible guy. Of course I will still be in charge of all business making decisions but all of that work is easily done on the phone and online. No need for me being there.
    I tried looking at this in any possible way and staying in NY just didn’t make any sense. instead, we are looking at expanding our business opening a new branch in Columbus area AND spoiling ourselves with buying a beautiful house. One I would never be able to afford here in the city, and if I had, I would be in the ditch for 2-3 mill.
    so boost our income by owning more properties. Pay a TON less. And most important of all ENJOY A GREAT QUALITY LIFESTYLE.
    We’re moving to Westerville which is north of Columbus and is such a pretty little town with an amazing vibe and tremendous growth potential. I wish I could say I’ll miss NY but this city has been falling in quality and taxes have not justified us staying there for ANY OTHER PURPOSE than business.
    So yeah that’s it for us. And now EVEN MOVING OUT OF NEW YORK is a challenge. So that’s another sign we’re doing the right thing
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a brilliant decision. Houses will be beautiful and large compared to NY. Your income will go WAY further. AND......(I looked it up).....what a beautiful town. No doubt.......A HUGE.....upgrade in lifestyle.

    LOL.......be sure to get a new DL and plates on your cars ASAP so people dont see you as........another New Yorker moving here. BUT.....seriously......I am sure your lifestyle and stress levels will IMPROVE DRASTICALLY......not to mention your pocketbook with the lower taxes. CONGRATULATIONS.
     
  12. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Hahaha I know!! My real estate agent in OH tells me please leave all the baggage in NY, were very friendly here. And it’s so true, i don’t want people there thinking we’re coming there to destroy their town. Such a sad story about NY. I wish I could say I will miss my friends, the places we grew up on, but THEY ARE ALL LONG GONE. All of them. Friends, family, historical entertainment venues, family diners and restaurants... All gone! I’m always the last one to follow. But better late than never. If things ever change here (I really hope so) we still have a place to live in NY but short of coming for short visits and checking with the business I seriously doubt we ever will. And hey you never know, if our new business location takes off as I project it will within the timeframe I expect it to, we may even get to TX one day :)
     
  13. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun New Member

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    I was in a similar situation Zukodany except the opposite coast in the San Francisco area. 2 years ago we decided to move to what some would label “flyover territory“ in the US south where my wife and I have roots and we don’t regret anything about the move. It’s weird waking up everyday with all the craziness in today’s world but being more stress free than I ever was trying to make it in the Metropolitan rat race. Best decision I ever made and I can now focus more on investing! Friendly people, less financial stress and a higher quality of living really makes a big difference in one’s mental health.

    Good Luck with your move!
     
    zukodany likes this.
  14. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Thank you Ragin! We’re super psyched about our move. We signed a lease for 7 months in a beautiful condominium for the first phase of our plan. This decision was based solely on the trial period of the business operating without us there. There’s absolutely no reason it shouldn’t! But I’m playing it safe. And in that time period we’re looking to close on 2 properties one commercial and one residential. So we will keep plenty busy while there. We expect to finalise our purchases and part rehab by feb-March 2021. Of course a lot of things can happen between now and then but that’s the plan. Glad things worked out for you and the family in the south. Some beautiful places down south and nothing like southern hospitality!
    Looks like I was WRONG about my projection for today.. seems like a solid green day with a nice nasdaq comeback. I’ve started watching lulu lemon. NOT something I’m looking to get into but my wife and I absolutely love this brand. They really do make quality stuff and most of our fitness wear is from them. Maybe something for the future hmmm
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......today is the "good twin" to yesterdays "evil twin". A TOTAL mirror image of yesterday. MY accounts.....EVERYTHING is green. AND today I got the SP500 back for yesterday.......beating the SP500 by 1.41%.

    I think MOST investors are pretty used to these big days up and down by now. I know I am.........I dont think twice about them.
     
  16. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yes, good luck on the move @zukodany . can't help but remember when i moved out here to southern california in 1987. there were bumper stickers that that read "native" and "welcome to california, now go home". now the natives can't get out fast enough. oh, the irony!
     
    zukodany likes this.
  17. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_20200821-235653.png
    All my life, I loved Sears. As a kid, I remember the popcorn that you can smell from the parking lot. Free popcorn. I got my first credit card from Sears. Discover, AllState, DieHard. Craftsman, Kenmore, Sears Financial. They sold some of the best products on the market. Every time I help someone else work on their house or car, they are always surprised that I have Craftsman tools. Best boots I've worn for motorcycle rides were Sears. Used to be the best car batteries and appliances. I still use a Discover Card.

    But I never bought Sears stock. I bought Bear Stearns.
     
    zukodany likes this.
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE open today. Another day.......another dollar.......HOPEFULLY.

    I am seeing a COMPLETE LACK of decent articles to post about..........ACTUAL.........investing recently. EVERYTHING is INFECTED with culture crap and the election and politics. CONSTANT, incessant, dreary, whining, hostile, etc, etc,........content. UNFORTUNATELY now that the MODERN form of.........so called......journalism is taking over the financial media there is little to no investing content. GOD help new and young investors going forward.

    As we all know MONDAY was a market holiday. YET.....on TUESDAY I saw a number of articles talking about how the markets did on.......MONDAY. They were ALL talking about the market being down, the SP500 being down, etc, etc, etc. They all had facts and figures and data and even discussion. HOWEVER when I checked the data they contained it was ALL Friday data. I even had to double check and see if I was somehow wrong and the markets had actually been open.

    These were ALL........AI.......non-human......written articles about the market results on a day when the markets were closed. These were not obscure articles.....they were on mainstream sites. AND.....they were giving FALSE information. OBVIOUSLY.......no human.....edited or reviewed any of them.....they simply automatically posted on mainstream sites like where I saw them. There was ABSOLUTELY no way to tell these were not HUMAN written articles........if it was not a CLOSED day. UNFORTUNATELY......we are quickly heading toward the day when MOST articles and content will be written by NON-HUMANS with content designed to capture views and toe certain lines without regard to NUANCE or HONESTY or TRUTH. We will be in the era of..........MACHINE MANIPULATION. THIS.....is not a good thing for the future of investing knowledge, education and ability to actually know how to invest.
     
    B Russ likes this.
  19. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_20200908-163956_kindlephoto-158612481.png Screenshot_20200908-164034_kindlephoto-158574278.png Screenshot_20200908-164039_kindlephoto-158503334.png Screenshot_20200908-164242_kindlephoto-158405135.png
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND.......I will add my comments about the INFECTION of investing articles above is.......aimed at ALL sides.
     

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