The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above two posts........do I care about this data as an investor? NOPE. It is useless and simply a joke.

    What is not a joke is the fact that the FED....relies on this data as the basis for how they are impacting business and the economy. Now that is NOT a joke.....it is SCARY.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The good open today.

    Stocks edge higher as S&P 500, Nasdaq try to build on records

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...nasdaq-try-to-build-on-records-133105087.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks nudged up early Monday ahead of a consequential week that could provide key signals for the near-term path of interest rates.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was up 0.1% after each index notched its latest record on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped about 0.5%.


    The S&P and Nasdaq are looking to build on records secured in the wake of Friday's jobs report, which signaled continued cooling in the labor market. That prompted an influx of bets on a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. About 3 in 4 traders expect a cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Several events this week could add to that growing rate-cut momentum. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to appear in Congress for semiannual testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then comes the latest Consumer Price Index print, set for release on Thursday. Economists expect headline inflation rose 3.1% over the last year, which would match the lows where the CPI started the year.

    In other market-moving events, a left-wing coalition in France garnered the most votes in the country's election, stunning a far-right that was hoping to secure a parliamentary majority. The benchmark French index (^FHCI) rose slightly.

    In corporates, Boeing (BA) pleaded guilty to a criminal conspiracy charge in relation to two fatal 737 Max crashes. Shares were up nearly 1% in early trading.

    Meanwhile Tesla stock (TSLA) erased early session losses to turn positive as shares of the EV giant were on track to extend an eight-day winning streak."

    MY COMMENT

    Not much that is really significant above.

    What is interesting is that the above TOTALLY IGNORES the start of earnings this week with a good number of big and other banks reporting. WTF?
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Danger....Danger....Will Robinson. We continue to be FOOLS.....allowing this China "stuff" to happen and take hold.

    Amazon’s Asian rival Shein wants to be supply chain giant, but some fear Chinese cyber spying inside global trade links

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/shein-to-build-supply-chain-giant-fear-china-cyber-spy.html

    Key Information
    • Shein is selling supply chain technology to companies around the world,.......and.....many fear that sensitive logistics and customer information covering U.S. citizens WILL be captured and used by the Chinese government.
    • Shein is suspect for ties to China.......DUH..... they failed in a U.S. IPO listing effort.
    • In 2022, Shein moved HQ to Singapore, TikTok's base, this lessens regulatory scrutiny, it is also......rightly..... called “Singapore washing".
    MY COMMENT

    YES.....we really are this STUPID.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND.......not a great day for the big cap tech stocks so far.....except for NVDA and TSLA.

    At least HD is having a good day......about 1.5 hours into the day.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like about the same morning market we have been seeing for weeks now. Trying to figure out here to go in general.

    NASDAQ just turned slightly red......but....there is no clear energy either direction so fat today.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been out of touch since about 11:00AM today. I had to take my sibling out car shopping. Their old car.......a 22 year old Ford Escape....finally died. Their new car......a Lexus RS 350 with all the bells and whistles.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Anyway......I did just fine today....or at least my account did without me. I had a good medium level gain.....so I made good money. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.51%.

    A good start to the week.
     
    #20647 WXYZ, Jul 8, 2024 at 8:13 PM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 12:14 AM
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is a nice little article that has much discussion about economic data along with some nice charts......especially if you are an economic data freak.

    The Fed Gets Its Wish

    https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-fed-gets-its-wish/?src=news

    NOT my cup of tea.....but I did scan it. This economic data is so flawed as to be mostly worthless.

    In fact just starting to scan various sites today.....I am seeing mostly talk about POWELL and not much else. Appears to be a very slow day in the financial media. I notice that one site that used to give me a lot of good content is now mostly scary headlines and sensationalism.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AMAZING.......not a word about the earnings that will come at the end of this week. This is all that I am seeing today.

    S&P 500 set to build on record high with Powell on deck

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ecord-high-with-powell-on-deck-112808244.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks were poised to resume their record-setting climb on Tuesday, as investors assessed concerns about a pullback as they waited for Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to speak.

    S&P 500 futures (ES=F) edged up 0.2%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way higher with a 0.4% gain. Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) futures were little changed.

    Stocks have ground out fresh all-time highs as signs of a US economic slowdown bolster bets on interest-rate cuts. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) booked its 35th record close of the year on Monday, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) took out a record of its own as chip stocks outperformed.

    Powell should shed light on the Fed's picture of the economy when he gives his twice-yearly policy update to Congress, starting Tuesday with an appearance in the Senate. Testimony to the House follows the next day, setting the stage for a key update on consumer inflation on Thursday — all potential catalysts for stocks if they confirm a cooling.

    But a note of caution is seeping into the market as the idea of a summer pullback gets more backers, with Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson calling for a 10% correction.

    Wall Street is getting cold feet about this coming earnings season, given the higher bar of expectations they face this time around. At the same time, investors are starting to question the huge inflows into AI-linked stocks that have driven the recent rally, given the tech's impact is still unproven.

    On the corporate front, BP's (BP) US-listed shares fell over 4% in pre-market trading after the energy giant warned of a refining slump and factory-linked writedown of up to $2 billion. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock slipped after Wegovy lost out to Eli Lilly's (LLY) Mounjaro in an analysis of rival weight-loss drugs."

    MY COMMENT

    In other words NOTHING going on today. Probably going to be another wishy-washy open with a mild probability for a positive day by the close. Although the futures are pricing in a more positive open than I am expecting.

    BORING.....again.
     
    #20649 WXYZ, Jul 9, 2024 at 7:46 AM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 7:53 AM
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The ART market remains strong, strong, strong....at least in what I collect. I have a single art event this month.....a meeting of a new satellite art group that we are trying to get off the ground with a chance to view collections in three homes.

    A recent auction had a SHOCKINGLY high sale of a few items.....way above estimates. A couple of big collectors with no budget limitations competing for a few items.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE.....is the topic that EVERYONE is ignoring.

    "PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines are set to post results on Thursday. Then, a slew of major banks, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, will kick off second-quarter earnings season on Friday."

    "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?".......etc, etc, etc.

    HERE is a bit of info on the soon to start earnings expectations:


    "July 3, 2024

    Key Information:
    • Earnings Growth: For Q2 2024, estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate is 8.8% for the SP500. 8.8% would
    mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported since Q1 2022 (9.4%).
    • Earnings Revisions: The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2
    2024.....9.1%. Seven sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to March 31) due to
    downward revisions to EPS estimates.
    • Earnings Guidance: For Q2 2024, 67 S&P 500 are reporting negative EPS guidance and 45 S&P 500
    companies issued positive EPS guidance.
    • Valuation: Forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500.....21.2. This is above the 5-year average
    (19.3) and the 10-year average (17.9)."


    https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_070324.pdf
     
  12. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    I like this way of buying cars and keeping them for longer than 10 years, and exploiting them until they die. Here in UK and also some other EU countries is a trend to keep financing new car for 3 years and than take a new one, which is ridiculous in my opinion. I know some people who drive expensive cars and their monthly payment, only for a car, is 50% of their salary, and then you hear the same people moan about the costs of living.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So true Strathmore.

    We dont finance cars.....we pay cash. My goal with any car is to get at least 5-6 years and at least 250,000 miles out of them. To me they are just a commodity that you use up.

    If you do finance a car......the best time is when the car is paid off and you are finally driving a "free car". The longer you can stretch that car.......with no payment..... the better. Unfortunately for their finances.....most people seem to not agree.
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  14. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Active Member

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    @Strathmore I completely agree with you on if you want to play the big boy car game (luxury, luxury sport or exotic) then don't complain about maintenance or cost. As I tell everyone that comes to me about muscle and classic cars I tell them the price of the car is most certainly not the last dime you will be putting into it. Your budget should include yearly maintenance and operational cost. Also you car costs should have ZERO impact on your day to day life, if an expense comes up I pay it without thinking about it or without it affecting any of my other financial obligations (insurance, groceries, mortgage, family costs etc).

    W, My sister had a Lexus RS350 and I loved it. Absolutely fantastic car to be in. Also Lexus has a pretty good track record for reliability which is good. From what her financial advisor has been mentioning, she can EASILY afford it. Good for her, she deserves it. Everyone is running their own race so car budget is very subjective. Should the 20 something year old with college debt but a $80k a year job buy the $75k BMW? I would say no. Should the 35 year old with the same $80k a year job but has a $3mil net worth buy the $75k BMW? I would say go for it. Cars are not an investment but do have an impact on your quality of life. If you spend 2 hours a days commuting then having a nice atmosphere to do that in may be worth it to some. End of the day the reason to make money if security and standard of living. Once you have security, then you can build up your quality of life. I will also add that for some of us the dream of a certain car motivates us to work harder, advance education, build businesses, invest and grow as individuals in order to meet that goal.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  15. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    It's funny how here in UK everything is on a smaller scale, comparing to US. Here is 100k miles top what most cars make.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEP....it is all relative. If you can afford something and it is your dream, or goal, or passion, or simply something you have wanted for a long time.......go ahead.

    We certainly dont scrimp on lifestyle choices....art, antiques, horses, dogs, houses, etc, etc, etc. We did have our time when we bought some nice cars....mostly Range Rovers and a Defender....back in the day when they were actual off road vehicles........not.....suburban SUV's.

    As Tiresmoke said......they are not cheap to maintain. BUT.....after working hard and saving and growing money....once in a while you have to treat yourself as a reward.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND......I used to have a dream car. The car that I would buy when I "made it". BUT....funny thing....once I got to the point where I could buy that car.....I no longer wanted it. I had moved on in terms of what I valued and wanted for lifestyle "things".

    In our family we work hard to save and grow money and take all the right steps.....but......we do reward ourselves.
     
    #20657 WXYZ, Jul 9, 2024 at 10:10 AM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 10:15 AM
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am having a BIG MONEY day today. Any time NVDA is over $5 per share I am making very good money. I just hope it can last for the rest of the market day.......about six hours.....YIKES.

    We are due for an EXPLOSIVE market jump. Perhaps this week will be it.

    We have gone through a number of lingering, wishy-washy weeks where the markets moved up.....but....did not seem that strong. Stealth gain weeks. Kind of a period of churning market consolidation.

    You never know when the big gains are going to happen. BUT....if you are always in the markets for the long term....you will capture them all.
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above posts....it is all about balance. It is also all about family. I do agree with much of this content:

    How to ‘live regret-free lives we can feel proud of,’ from the author of ‘You Only Die Once’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/09/how-to-live-regret-free-lives-from-you-only-die-once-author.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Of all the things I fear — spiders, needles, rejection — regrets take the cake. I have a deep-rooted fear of getting to the end and feeling woefully disappointed — not so much by the life I lived but by the life I didn’t live.

    In many ways, I have my mother to thank for waking me up and helping me course-correct. She died at 58 with a litany of regrets. After losing her,I was gripped by the fear of dying with my own laundry list of “if onlys.”

    I committed to live a regret-free life or die trying. Now I’m hell-bent on helping us all make the most of our time while we’re lucky enough to be above ground. I want us to live regret-free lives we can feel proud of.

    That’s why I left my job as a corporate executive to become a “stop squandering your life” speaker and coach. It’s why, while I was in the University of Pennsylvania’s Master of Applied Positive Psychology (MAPP) program, I wrote a 101-page thesis about “reflecting on mortality to inspire vitality and meaning in life.” And it’s why I recently published my book, “You Only Die Once: How to Make It to the End With No Regrets.”

    The 2 major kinds of regrets

    As terrifying as regrets are, they can be useful, because they can motivate us to change our behavior and improve our lives. That is, they can help us after we simmer in the uncomfortable awareness of what could have been if we’d only made a way better decision.

    We tend to value regret more than any of the negative emotions out there, studies show, because we understand its value and power.

    There are two main categories of regrets you want to pay attention to:

    1. Regrets of commission: These include things we did that we wish we hadn’t done. We tend to be able to rationalize regrets of commission through the softening of time.
    2. Regrets of omission: These include the paths we didn’t take, the things we wish we’d done that we never did. Regrets of omission tend to haunt us.
    Regrets of commission ‘cool off over time’

    Also known as hot regrets, regrets of commission tend to feel intense at first. They’re often stupid things we do that make us burn in the short run with shame, guilt, or remorse, and then cool off over time.

    Here’s a true-crime sampler from my clients and workshop attendees:

    • “Being mean to Kandy on the schoolyard in sixth grade”
    • “Having an affair”
    • “Telling that client what I really thought of them”
    • “Getting a DUI”
    • “Leaving my vintage baseball card collection at home for my mother to later throw out”
    • “Giving Tom the finger after quitting in a huff”
    • “Eating three-day-old sushi”
    Regrets of omission ‘torment us’

    Also known as wistful regrets, regrets of omission can torment us until the end of time.

    Real-life client examples include:

    • “Not backpacking across Europe after college”
    • “Not running that marathon”
    • “Not finishing law school”
    • “Not fixing my relationship with my brother”
    • “Not writing that children’s book”
    • “Not ordering desserts just for myself; I wish I’d had more pieces of cake all to myself”
    • “Not telling my first crush I loved him”
    Regrets of omission plague us mostly because these are paths not taken. They shine a glaring spotlight on the chasm between our actual selves and the person we’ve imagined as our ideal self, one that could make our dreams come true.

    How to prevent the most painful regrets

    Anticipating our regrets before they come to fruition — or what I call our“pre-grets” — gives us a chance to live a life that feels right.

    In my book, I share several exercises, assessments, and tips designed to help you identify your pre-grets and figure out how to use them to your advantage. Here’s one way to start:

    • Get comfy in bed. Yes, for real — recline your body and take a deep breath. Imagine you’re lying on your deathbed. You’re not in pain. You feel lucid and at peace. You’re near the end and reflecting back on your life. Start to zero in on your regrets of omission — not the things you did do but rather the things you didn’t do.
    • Make a list of what comes up for you.
    • Circle the entries that make your heart beat fast, or make it ache or skip a beat. Any heart-related reaction is a good indication that this one matters.
    • Pay close attention to the pre-grets that want to hide on the page because they’re fragile and afraid to be exposed. Perhaps you feel fear of failure or rejection or ridicule. That’s a sign that it’s important to protect and be kind to those dreams.
    • Start brainstorming ways to take even one step forward. Better yet, write one down right now.
    An unflinching awareness of your pre-gets can change the trajectory of your life.

    That’s because we don’t have to continue down the paths we’re on and resign ourselves to regrets of omission. We don’t have to merely imagine the paths not taken.

    We can go down entirely different paths if we choose. We just have to recognize what matters deeply to us and take action."

    MY COMMENT

    It is never a bad thing to evaluate your life and actions. AND....it is not all or nothing. You can be successful, work hard, and save for the future.....and....at the same time.....allow yourself to experience some of the things that you always wanted to do. You dont want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
     

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