The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OK....now that my siblings little car buying adventure is over.......and......now that my kid is done selling and buying a house......and....the final funds are all back in my siblings account........JUST a few minutes ago I bought in my siblings account:

    $20,000 CMG
    $10,000 PLTR

    In addition $16,000 will go into the SP500 Index fund at the close today.

    These are additions....not...new positions.

    The house pay-off proceeds paid to my sibling as their mortgage holder on the sold house went back into my siblings account a week or two ago.......about $420,000. Also invested in the same stocks and funds as my portfolio Model....at that time.
     
    #20661 WXYZ, Jul 9, 2024 at 11:52 AM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 12:14 PM
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will also mention that my kid and their spouse were able to add to their two brokerage accounts $140,000 from profits on the sale of their prior house. Not too bad for only owning that home for 3 years. Of course....the family financing helps.

    The money above was spread over all the same stocks that are in my Portfolio Model....except for PLTR. They dont own any PLTR.
    This takes their brokerage account money up to about $650,000 at ages 39 and 42.

    This amount should secure their future along with their great pensions, Social Security,.....plus.....what they might inherit from my sibling and me. Even if they dont invest another penny....I expect that $650,000 to grow to about $3,000,000 by age 62.....20 years.....hopefully at the minimum.

    They will continue to put $1000 per month into their SP500 Index Fund.......and....I am sure off and on there will be some additional lump sum money to add to the two brokerage accounts.

    Of course that assumes that.....in terms of investing......things continue to pretty much work out the way they have up till now. BUT.....you never know what the future will bring.
     
    #20662 WXYZ, Jul 9, 2024 at 12:01 PM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 12:17 PM
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It is nice to have the car purchase and the house transactions over and done with. Now the various accounts can go back to sitting and earning money. It will also free up a lot of my time......especially....dealing with the house sale and purchase.

    I acted as my kids realtor on the house sale....I am not a realtor, but I play one on TV. Since their house went under contract without ever being on the market, they had no realtor to negotiate for them and shepherd everything through closing. So i took that role so they would not be personally dealing with the buyers realtor.

    My final act in this deal will be to take the deed of trust and note in for recording next week. I thought I would get it done last week but the County Clerks office was closed on Thursday and Friday for the 4th of July.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Markets seem to be hanging in there....so far.

    COME ON.......SHOW ME THE MONEY.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A little bit in anticipation of earnings that start at the end of this week. Of course what will really matter is the ACTUAL earnings which we will know in about a month or two.

    A sizzling earnings season looms
    Quarterly earnings-per-share for S&P 500 companies are poised to hit a record.

    https://sherwood.news/markets/quarterly-earnings-best-season-in-years/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Corporate America is about to report the biggest jump in profits since late 2021. That’s the consensus view from Wall Street’s armies of analysts tracking companies in the S&P 500.

    Data provider FactSet tallies up, blends, weights, and averages all the earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500 companies these analysts cover. They expect earnings per share hit a quarterly record of $58.57 in the three months ended in June, up 9% from the same quarter last year.

    If history is any guide, these analysts are probably under-estimating. Typically, about 70% of S&P 500 companies beat the numbers that Wall Street predicts — according to Thomson Reuters data going back to 1994. That’s because corporate executives, whose statements tend to shape analyst estimates, prefer to underpromise and overdeliver on their results, which can generate a satisfying price bump for shares. Last quarter, profits per share exceeded expectations by a whopping 8.3% with nearly 400 firms posting better than anticipated bottom line figures, according to data from Bloomberg.

    The earnings festivities quasi-formally get underway later this week, with JPMorgan due to release its quarterly results on Friday morning.

    MY COMMENT

    I like this prediction.....although....until it happens it is simply a "prediction".

    I do expect that we will see the usual 70% or so BEATS plus a very good earnings season this time around and over the rest of the year. There is not a lot that is negative out there right now or visible over the next six months.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are well on our way to yet another round of record high closes today in the big averages. It is amazing that the SP500 is nearly at 5600 this early in the year. My prediction of 5800 at the start of the year......was pretty out there in terms of all the experts. We might hit that level well before year end.

    Although...I do not discount in the slightest the potential for a market dip or even a correction some time between now and about the end of October.
     
  7. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Active Member

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    What was W's dream car.... If I had to guess... in the 1990's it was probably a Porsche 911???

    It is funny how priorities and perspective change. Once you see what $150k can do in the market it's very hard to spend it on a toy. Also having a child I feel the duty to create some generational wealth and security for the next generation.
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It was the red Mercedes 450SL....way back in about 1977. After experiencing a few small sports cars that friends had......I quickly switched to Range Rover......which we drove from about 1990 till about 2002.

    Over that 12 years we owned four Range Rovers and a Defender 90 (1993 model) which we bought new in 1993.

    I think we paid in the neighborhood of about $25,000 for the Defender (1993 dollars). We ended up giving it to our son in about 2012. He kept it for about 8 years and ended up selling it for about $80,000. A short time later I happened to see our car online listed for sale in California for $125,000. When my son sold it......it had under 15,000 miles on it.

    It was in perfect condition with immaculate original paint.
     
    #20668 WXYZ, Jul 9, 2024 at 4:10 PM
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024 at 4:28 PM
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had a really good day in the markets today.....a borderline big or high medium gain. I had four stocks green today......NVDA, COST, AAPL and AMZN. My five RED positions included my two "small" positions....CMG and PLTR.

    I also beat the SP500 today by 0.83%.

    I am on a nice little roll this week....lets keep it going.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is what our Defender looked like......NOT our actual car:

    [​IMG]
     
    TireSmoke likes this.
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another record breaking day today.

    S&P 500, Nasdaq build on record highs as Powell testimony keeps rate cut hopes alive

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ony-keeps-rate-cut-hopes-alive-200102072.html

    "The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished just above the flatline to book its 36th record close of the year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also built on its previous record to close up about 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which seesawed throughout the trading session, closed down around 0.1%."

    ETC, etc, etc.
     
  12. mizugori

    mizugori New Member

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    I picked up AAPL, CMG, COST, HD, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR, and WMT today for the rollover IRA.

    I'm going 100% stocks at this point, except my 401k for my current job, which has to be mutual funds because that's all they offer (and a limited selection at that.) When I change jobs, I roll the 401k from the prior job into an IRA.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like you own the GUTS of the world economy Mizugori. With your long time span to retirement....those companies should do well for you over the long term.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lets hope so.

    Why Nvidia could be headed for a seismic moment: Another $3 trillion in market cap

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...other-3-trillion-in-market-cap-133122970.html

    If this happens....the company will JUMP way ahead of every other company.....in existence. What is really CRAZY is he is saying this could happen by year end.....THIS YEAR. This prediction is based on the next two earnings reports in August and November.

    That might be a little too optimistic....but.....I can see where it might happen some time over 2-3 years if the company continues to operate at the current high level.
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the markets are doing well right now. Both the SP500 and NASDAQ are up nicely for this early in the day. Where we are now reminds me of how yesterday went. As usual over the past 2-4 weeks....how you do today....will be very dependent on the particular stocks of funds that you own.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Of course.....POWELL is still talking today.....and here is the very....NORMAL....day we are seeing today.

    S&P 500 rises for a seventh straight day as traders await key inflation report

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    The S&P 500 rose slightly on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to a major U.S. inflation report.

    The broad market index traded 0.3% higher, reaching a fresh record high and on track for its seventh straight day of gains. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%, also hitting an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    hovered around the flatline.

    The June consumer price index report is slated for release Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 0.1% month-over-month advance and a 3.1% year-on-year gain. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecast to have expanded by 0.2% month over month and 3.4% year on year. The producer price index is set for release Friday.

    So far this week, stock traders have been willing to ignore or dismiss the downside risks related to evidence of a recent slowdown in economic activity indicators in the US and abroad,” Macquarie global FX & rates strategist Thierry Wizman wrote on Wednesday. “Instead, stock indexes have generally risen on the fresh liquidity that’s been driven by the premise that the Fed (and other central banks) will either start or continue to reduce their policy interest rates this year.

    Wall Street is coming off fresh record closing highs for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned on Tuesday that keeping rates elevated for too long could stunt economic growth.

    “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment,” said Powell, speaking to the Senate Banking Committee as part of his semiannual address to Congress on Tuesday. He continues his testimony Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. “More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell added."

    MY COMMENT

    As usual the CPI and PPI will be sliced and diced. I doubt that either one will have anything shocking or unexpected. Most recent economic reports have been leaning to the side of a slowing economy and lessening inflation. I expect that this will......slowly...continue.

    In the above....we are seeing a bit of talk about downside risk of an economic slowdown. I think this is a little premature. BUT......,the government and economic data is so extremely flawed....who knows what the economy is actually doing. Investors and others probably get a better view of the economy.....simply by observing their......anecdotal..... local economic conditions and consumer behavior.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am certainly having a good day so far today with six stocks currently GREEN and only three RED. today very much....reminds me of the market yesterday and over the past 2-4 weeks.

    We continue to be in a BIG CAP GROWTH STOCK market. Fine with me.

    What is nice is the fact that a HUGE amount of money is sitting on the sidelines. As we enter a time of rate cuts later this year and hopefully into next year....rates on safe investment alternatives are going to drop. Some of that money siting in safe investments will start to look for better returns.

    I do find it interesting that we are now at least 1 year to 1.5 years into the current BULL MARKET....and we are NOT seeing broad euphoria. That is a very good sign for more gains in the markets.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

    It is nice to be back to a relatively normal market. if you ignore all the commentary, fear mongering, and headlines and look at the markets over the past six months....it is simply a normal market. Long term investors will do well by being fully invested and siting and doing NOTHING. In other words disregard and detach your attention from the day to day...."stuff".

    Pick good businesses to invest in and go about your normal life. That is the key.

    How do you pick those good businesses to invest in? Simple fundamental results in earnings and business performance are the key.

    Simple fundamental results in earnings and business performance are the underlying factors in the companies that I like to invest in.....BIG CAP GROWTH STOCKS. Companies that are AMERICAN, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE SUCCESS, GREAT MANAGEMENT, etc,etc, etc.....the greatest growing companies in the world with long term staying power.

    AND....you dont have to be a stock picking genius to identify these sorts of companies.....they are simply in the news every day and obvious to anyone that cares to look. It is that simple. That is how I like to invest......by following the obvious and simple path. Complexity is the killer of investment returns.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Time to sit and let the markets do their thing today. NO news is good news.
     
  20. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    From your experience, would you say that bull markets die on euphoria?
     

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