Nothing, nothing, nothing......to post today. What little focus there is on stocks......... rather than politics.....is all on earnings. Fine with me since we have to get ready to take a dog to a vet appointment a little later this morning.
Even the financial and business news are overwhelmed by politics, the election, and current events right now. I NEVER invest based on such stuff......so nothing for me to do. BUT.......obviously this "stuff" can have a massive impact on the markets and investors. We have seen this over my entire lifetime of investing. Imagine a world where investing was totally free of government. Where the entire focus was on business and fundamental business results. Hey.....I can dream cant I?
OK.....the markets are picking up a bit right now. We were pretty flat at the open and over the first 1.5 hours.......although the big cap tech has been having an ok day. We now have NVDA joining in the gains today......very slightly. All in all it is a mild and boring day in the markets. No real energy or enthusiasm. A dull summer day in the markets when ALL focus in on politics and news items.
This is actually a pretty good little article. Certainly LOTS of charts. Yahoo Finance Chartbook: 32 charts tell the story of markets and the economy midway through 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yaho...he-economy-midway-through-2024-095812719.html
We are GREEN across the board now......DOW, NASDAQ, SP500 and RUSSELL 2000. But the gains leading to that green are very mild and I doubt they have much behind them at this point......since the markets are generally ignoring earnings.
Well.....the markets FADED at the end of the day to end in the RED for the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ. Basically a mild and meaningless day in the markets. My account ended about the same way. I was happy to have six stocks UP today.....AMZN, PLTR, COST, AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL. BUT....NVDA was down just enough to pull my nine stocks into the RED for the day. I dont mind.....that is one amazing company and I am content to let it dominate my portfolio for 2-5 years. I did manage to very slightly beat the SP500 today by 0.01%.
Here is one of the earnings reports today that everyone is waiting for. Alphabet earnings are out – here are the numbers https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/alphabet-set-to-report-q2-earnings-results-after-the-bell.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Google parent company Alphabet reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results: Earnings: $1.89 a share vs. $1.84 per share expected Revenue: $84.74 billion vs. $84.19 billion expected Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report: YouTube advertising revenue: $8.66 billion vs. $8.93 billion, according to StreetAccount Google Cloud revenue: $10.35 billion vs. $10.20 billion, according to StreetAccount Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $13.39 billion vs. $13.54 billion, according to StreetAccount Analysts will be watching to see if Alphabet, which has outperformed other internet and software mega caps through the year, can keep posting steady growth amid tougher comparisons from the year prior. They expect modest growth in key areas such as cloud and overall revenue, after a quarter of leadership moves, AI announcements and market expansions. During the second quarter, Alphabet saw a number of expansion updates, including for its self-driving car unit Waymo, which opened its service to all San Francisco users. The move was Waymo’s second citywide rollout, following its 2020 debut in the Phoenix metropolitan area. In May, Alphabet held its annual developer conference, where it announced a slew of new artificial intelligence products including a new large language model called Gemini 1.5 Flash, which can quickly summarize conversations, caption images and videos and extract data from large documents and tables. The company also launched AI Overview, which CEO Sundar Pichai called the biggest change in search in 25 years, to a limited audience, allowing users to see a summary of answers to queries at the very top of Google search. However, the earnings period also brought criticism for some of those new products. Though Google had been working on AI Overview for more than a year, users quickly noticed that queries were returning nonsensical or inaccurate answers, and they had no way to opt out. Widely circulated results included the false statement that Barack Obama was America’s first Muslim president, a suggestion for users to try putting glue in pizza and a recommendation to try eating at least one rock per day. Though Google announced several fixes to remedy AI Overview issues, it came as the latest of several AI product launch mishaps by the search giant, which for some have called into question whether the company can safely rollout AI products at the speed of competition. It also remains unclear just how much revenue growth these new products will generate from users and advertisers alike — a key discussion topic expected on Alphabet’s earnings conference call. Google’s search head Liz Reid told employees at a recent all-hands meeting that the company “won’t always find everything” when it comes to AI mistakes, according to audio obtained by CNBC. Reid urged employees to continue pushing AI products, suggesting they can fix mistakes as users and employees find them. Alphabet also announced a new finance chief, Anat Ashkenazi, who came from Eli Lily, the world’s most valuable drugmaker. Ashkenazi begins her tenure on July 31, replacing Ruth Porat, who has taken on a new role as Alphabet president and chief investment officer. Alphabet continued belt-tightening during the quarter, including laying off more than 100 people from several teams in Google’s cloud unit, one of its fastest-growing businesses. The company also laid off at least 200 employees from its “Core” engineering teams moving some roles to India and Mexico, CNBC found. As belt-tightening and budget reallocations continued through the quarter, company leadership faced employee complaints about “a significant decline in morale,” citing lack of trust, tighter deadlines with fewer resources and diminished opportunities for internal advancement, CNBC found. The complaints have come at a time in which the company is trying to maintain a positive perception as a top employer to work for, while it pursues top tech talent during a competitive AI boom. Alphabet will also face questions about cybersecurity company Wiz, which said on Monday it walked away from a $23 billion deal with Google. The acquisition could have helped bolster Google’s cloud unit revenue." MY COMMENT Looks like a mild BEAT.....but I want to see a better breakdown of the numbers and guidance.
HERE.....is another take on GOOGL earnings. Alphabet beats analysts' expectations on top and bottom line as cloud business picks up steam https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alph...-cloud-business-picks-up-steam-201030052.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines, as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time. For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a major jump from the same period last year when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion. Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. Shares of Alphabet were flat immediately following the announcement. Alphabet shares are up 30% year to date. Shares of rivals Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are up 18% and 22% year to date, respectively. All three companies are pouring money into building out their generative AI capabilities, spending lavishly on data centers capable of powering the AI models they offer via their cloud service platforms. On the cloud front, Google saw cloud revenue of $10.35 billion and operating income of 1.17 billion. That's better than analyst expectations of $10.1 billion and operating income of $982.2 million, and higher than the $8 billion in revenue and $395 million in operating income the company reported in Q2 2023. Google still trails both Amazon and Microsoft in the cloud space, with its rivals capturing the number one and two spots, respectively. However, the segment continues to grow, and Alphabet is banking on its investments in generative AI to help power stronger revenue and customer acquisition in the future. But when exactly AI starts to generate revenue for Google’s Cloud business, let alone its ad segment, is still up in the air. “It is still too early to count on AI benefits as most [companies] remain in pilot mode, and material AI [revenue] is more likely a 2025-26 event,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote in a recent investor ahead of earnings note. Google is still trying to find its footing with AI Overview, the generative AI feature that shows up at the top of Google Search results pages. In May, the company rolled out the search function, only for users to quickly discover that its answers weren’t always accurate, with now famous responses telling users to put glue in their pizza or to eat a rock every day. Google responded by pulling back some of the gen AI features." MY COMMENT Not sure this is enough to create much BUZZZZZZZ or to move the stock much. it is a pretty clear BEAT......but I doubt the markets will really move the stock much on these numbers.......at least to the UP side. We will see after guidance and commentary.
HERE you go TSLA owners. Tesla sees surprise rise in second-quarter revenue https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-revenue-sees-surprise-rise-200629519.html Tesla reports disappointing earnings for second quarter as revenue rises 2% https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/tesla-tsla-earnings-q2-2024.html Revenue and deliveries......UP well. BUT.....Net Income way down from a year ago. The stock is down by about 4% in the after-markets. ALSO.....a miss on EPS......52cents versus 62cents expected. A would call this a TRANSITIONAL quarter for TSLA....as I expect the rest of the year to be.
For those trying to buy a house. Home prices smashed another record in June as sales slump Existing home sales plummet as prices hit another record high https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-prices-smashed-another-record-june-sales-plummet (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The cost of buying a new house just hit another all-time high, according to a new report. Data published by the National Association of Realtors shows the median existing U.S. home sale price jumped to $426,900 in June – a 4.1% increase from the same time last year. That marks the highest level on record and is the second straight month that prices topped a new high. As prices marched higher, sales of previously owned homes tumbled 5.4% to an annual rate of 3.89 million units. In a potentially good sign for buyers, however, there was an uptick in inventory last month. At the end of June, there were about 1.32 million homes for sale, according to the report, up 3.1% from the previous month and 23.4% from the same time one year ago. "We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis." Homes sold on average in about 22 days last month. That is down from the 24 days recorded in May but marks an increase from the 18 days in June 2023. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, homes typically sat on the market for about a month before being sold. At the current pace of sales, it would take roughly 4.1 months to exhaust the inventory of existing homes – the highest level since May 2020. Experts view a pace of six to seven months as a healthy level. "Even as the median home price reached a new record high, further large accelerations are unlikely," Yun said. "Supply and demand dynamics are nearing a balanced market condition." There are a number of driving forces behind the affordability crisis. Years of underbuilding fueled a shortage of homes in the country, a problem that was later exacerbated by the rapid rise in mortgage rates and expensive construction materials. Higher mortgage rates over the past three years have also created a "golden handcuff" effect in the housing market. Sellers who locked in a record-low mortgage rate of 3% or less during the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, limiting supply further and leaving few options for eager would-be buyers. Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain elevated for most of 2024 and that they will only begin to fall once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. Even then, rates are unlikely to return to the lows seen during the pandemic, with investors predicting just one or two rate reductions this year. "Some prospective buyers are simply waiting for mortgage rates to come down after the Federal Reserve cuts rates, most likely in September," said Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist. "With inflation cooling and the job market still solid, rate cuts are now almost a foregone conclusion, which means those buyers who can wait are doing so." Most homeowners say they are nearly twice as willing to sell their home if their mortgage rate is 5% or higher, according to a Zillow survey. Currently, about 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%." MY COMMENT Of course the housing markets are all....local., local, local. So I dont know if any of the above really matters. One thing is sure....it will remain a WILD AND CRAZY market. At this point it is impossible to know what housing will do over the next 6-12 months. It might remain a sellers market....it might become a CRAZY sellers market.....or....it might evolve into more of a slight buyers market. I would not count on seeing a crazy buyers market any time soon, however.
Seems like a broad based dip today. ALL the big averages are down a good amount. TSLA and GOOGL are no doubt driving the markets into the red. Most of the tech world and chip companies are down today. A reflection of the fact that the markets seem to still be extremely skittish and willing to drop in concert on any little bit of disappointment. It seems like the markets simply wants to go through a little summer correction and will take any excuse to do so.
Our obvious market today. Stocks slide as disappointing Tesla and Alphabet earnings drag tech lower: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Stocks fell Wednesday as investors were underwhelmed by quarterly reports from megacap tech companies Alphabet and Tesla. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.8%, while the S&P 500 slid 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 152 points, or 0.4%. Shares of Google parent company Alphabet fell more than 4%. Although Alphabet reported a top and bottom line beat, YouTube advertising revenue fell below the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, Tesla shares declined more than 10% on weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue. Other megacap tech stocks fell in sympathy with Alphabet and Tesla. Nvidia and Meta Platforms lost more than 3% each, while Microsoft slid 1%. Those reports mark investors’ first look at how megacap companies fared during the second quarter. Reports from these names are of special interest to Wall Street as this small cohort is responsible for the bulk of this year’s gains. “One of the fastest ways for a rotation to occur under the surface would be earnings misses for the magnificent seven,” wrote Strategas strategist Ryan Grabinski. “We have talked about for some time how eventually ‘AI Enthusiasm’ will turn to ‘AI Disappointment.’ The next two weeks will be pivotal.” So far, though, the earnings season overall is off to a strong start. More than 25% of S&P 500 companies have reported their second-quarter earnings, with roughly 80% of them topping expectations, according to FactSet data. Wall Street is coming off a losing session, with the major averages pulling back slightly. Investors have largely priced in the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Combined with rising confidence in a soft landing, the market has continued its rally, with rate-sensitive sectors such as small caps and industrials rising in recent weeks. “You’re left with an economy that continues to grow, corporations that continue to manage the environment very, very well and a market that’s reflecting that in its elevated valuations,” said Solus Alternative Asset Management chief strategist and economist Dan Greenhaus." MY COMMENT A big overreaction today in the short term markets. Typical these days with the machines controlling the short term.
YES....we will get through the next three months and move beyond it all. Stocks and the Election Journey Immediately Ahead https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ks-and-the-election-journey-immediately-ahead (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Editors’ Note: This article delves into political developments from this weekend. Please note that MarketMinder favors no politician nor any political party, assessing developments solely for their potential impact on markets. Questions abound after President Joe Biden exited the presidential race Sunday, but from an investment standpoint, the stock market is telling you everything you need to know: Uncertainty is falling and poised to fall further. The next few weeks and months will winnow things down to a nominee, a general election campaign including the respective platforms and—eventually—a winner. The emerging clarity should keep benefiting stocks, as is usual in election years’ second halves. Interpreting short-term market movement is always a perilous path. Nevertheless, we think it is fair to say that if markets viewed Biden’s departure as a political earthquake that heightened uncertainty, it would show in Monday’s returns. Stocks generally hate high and rising uncertainty, and if that is indeed what we all got, then we would expect those nerves to manifest in a lot of red, downward arrows. Instead, the S&P 500 rose 1.1% on the day. This tells us, despite the historic nature of President Biden’s stepping aside, markets weren’t caught off guard. This may seem strange, but given all the speculation, talk and urging from Democratic party bigwigs, his decision more likely drove uncertainty down a bit. Markets—not delivering an opinion on any candidate’s personality or quality, in our view—welcomed the picture fleshing out a bit. Yes, we don’t yet have full clarity. We don’t know who the Democrats’ nominee will be and how the state-level polling will respond to a new name and face versus former President Donald Trump. There are three-plus months for that to take finer form ahead. But there is a process, and stocks will see and digest it all. The Democrats begin their convention on August 19, and there they will nominate a candidate. Biden’s delegates are now, officially, unbound, rendering this technically an open convention. They could change this by holding a pre-emptive vote, but we have seen few signs that is likely now. And, given deadlines like Ohio’s September 1 mark to have a candidate on the ballot, a condensed primary doesn’t look realistic either. So an open convention, like those from 1968 and earlier, looks likely. Any candidate who gathers signatures from at least 300 delegates can enter the fray. Once the list is set, delegates will vote in as many rounds as needed to whittle the field to a single nominee. At present, the main question is how wide open this field will be. But here, too, clarity is starting to emerge. Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the race to succeed him and major Democratic politicians followed suit, including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Political analysts have long viewed both as Harris’s potential challengers, but they lined up behind her instead. Retiring Senator Joe Manchin, once a mooted candidate with the centrist No Labels group, has stated he won’t rejoin the Democratic party and run. There is some murmuring about former First Lady Michelle Obama entering the race, due partly to her massive national popularity and partly to former President Barack Obama’s stopping short of endorsing Harris. But Obama’s statement, which deferred to the party’s process, largely echoes his words in 2020. It also isn’t clear that Mrs. Obama would want to leave her many post-White House projects for a return to the horrors of party politics. Stranger things, etc., but this seems like some party surrogates’ magical thinking rather than a realistic probability. Campaign finances likely also play a role here. Getting fundraising machinery up in a hurry is a tall order. Perhaps the large Democratic donors who have openly called for a contested convention unite behind one or two challengers. But a handful have already rallied behind Harris, who also reportedly reaped $50 million in grassroots funding after Biden’s endorsement. She is also the only candidate who can use the Biden campaign’s funds, since she was co-registrant. Technically, these funds are available to her regardless of whether she is on the ticket as the presidential or vice presidential candidate. But it would be a very weird look for someone to challenge her at the convention, win, and then select her as running mate. Not impossible, but weird. At any rate, with money and endorsements sliding into place, it looks like the party is coalescing around Harris. That is a bit more uncertainty falling. It likely falls further as we get official confirmation of the nominee. From there, we will get a campaign platform. The policy guessing game playing out in Monday’s news coverage—which projects biases and borrows from Harris’s rhetoric earlier in her career—will evolve into a more concrete discussion of actual policy proposals. Meanwhile, as voters get to know the new nominee, they will tell pollsters their new voting intentions. Sites like 270toWin.com will update their maps, electoral vote counts and swing-state scenarios. We will see where the baseline is and whether the Democrats’ switch necessitates more resources diverting to states they once thought locked down. In all likelihood, though, the map won’t change much. A new nominee gives voters something to think about, but opinions of Trump (pro and con) are already hardened and unlikely to change. Third parties, which may seem like a viable protest vote at this juncture, usually flop. People understand this and want their vote to count, so they tend to drift back to the two main candidates down the home stretch. Therefore, the results will probably still hinge on each party’s ground game in a handful of swing states (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and perhaps Georgia). That is a party-level thing, not a candidate thing. After all, the idea Biden’s exit would paint California or Oregon or any of the deep-blue states red is a fantasy. So having a new Democratic nominee probably doesn’t change things much. Eventually, all of this will narrow down to a single presidential winner, as well as House and Senate results. Come November 5, investors will know which party holds the White House and whether it will have a friendly, split or opposed Congress. We will see how much gridlock is likely and whether legislation (or lack thereof) in the inaugural year is likely to ease fears or disappoint hopes. All of this will matter for stocks in 2025 and beyond. But for 2024, the simple tailwind of falling uncertainty should be the main story, helping stocks in their typical late-year climb. Don’t let volatility along the way catch you off guard. It happens as talk and speculation stir fear. But over the balance of the year, as more pieces slide into place, stocks should enjoy having fewer questions." MY COMMENT YES......the players are now mostly in place and in about three months we will know what we will be facing going forward as investors. It is not like we have any real choice.....we will just have to take what we get.......and live with it. The only alternative is to get out of the markets or cut what you own. So.....as usual....good or bad.....we will simply invest on into the future as usual.
I have now finished skimming through all my sites and sources. The above is it for today in terms of the markets. A broad sell-off due to TSLA and GOOGL.
Today is a big overreaction caused by the short term traders and speculators. On the other extreme of the markets I suspect that the vast majority of long term investors are siting and ignoring it all. There is not much in-between the two investing camps. So we get these boom and bust events as short term traders yank the markets up and down and all the rest of us sit and watch the fun. It is the big picture versus the small picture. GOOGL is a good example......they had an earnings beat in terms of the big picture....but......the drop today is due to the financial media and traders slicing and dicing the earnings and taking the negative path. This has been going on for many years now......as we have seen companies put up mostly good earnings in general.....but ........than be punished for some guidance comment or extreme focus on some particular slice of the earnings picture. Nothing can be done about this.........so......so be it. It is just the modern investing environment. It looks to me like we are all set up for an old fashioned SUMMER CORRECTION. We used to see this often in the month of August......and into early September.
I will get my CMG earnings after the close today. The stock is certainly in the middle of a nasty correction over the past month.....although still up by 15% YTD. I am content to simply own the company and wait. I do like this holding. It is a "small" holding in my portfolio.......as I continue to get a feel for the company by owning it. I plan to give this stock a lot of leeway going forward. I like the stock and am not going to judge it based on just a month or two of ownership. In fact if I had any free money I would consider buying more shares at the current price. I like the correction discount that is available right now. The current dip started on about June 18.....and....has continued for a little over a month now.
Holding true to my degenerate stock buying I picked up some more NVDA today. I wasn't planning on shopping when I woke up this morning but it looked pretty good sitting on the clearance rack.
Yes a perfect market to reference The Shinning. What a brutal horror show of a market today. AND....what is worse is that there was really not much reason for this HUGE overreaction. Even a stock like COST was down by over $21 and over (-2.5%) today. That is really MORONIC and a symptom of a market that just wanted to free fall....for the fun of it.
NOT real great timing to release this little article today. US economy showing signs of 'Goldilocks' to start third quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...dilocks-to-start-third-quarter-145525449.html Some EDITOR really screwed up big time on the timing of this article and the headline. They should have just changed the headline to......."Markets in Freefall As Stocks Plummet"......and than....just left the content of the article the same.
