And like the rest of the SOUTH......here in Texas in the old days....you would use the word "COKE" as a generic name for any soda. Someone would say......"lets get a coke".....or....."do you want a coke"......when asking if you wanted a "soda".
Can you tell I am IGNORING the markets today? NOW......all the drama is over the FED waiting too long to cut rates. GASP.....are we going into a recession. IS IT.....TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE? BROTHER......I am sure the traders LOVE IT. I am also thinking that the traders are the ones.....CREATING and PUSHING...... this SUDDEN story-line that......out of nowhere.....popped up in the MEDIA today about.....9:30 AM CT.......and tanked the markets.
LOL....I now have a single stock UP today....MSFT.....whose earnings were disrespected just two days ago. I guess there are some second thoughts. ALL my other stocks are RED. At least yesterday injected a good amount of money....on paper...into my account so I now have more of a cushion for the IDIOTIC market action we are seeing lately. As of the close yesterday I was BACK UP to about +40% year to date for my entire portfolio. Now I am giving some of that back today....but nowhere near all of it....so far. WHAT CAN I SAY.....the short term markets are STUPID.
You think someone has some advance knowledge of the earnings today? The market seems to be saying so. If not and they are big beats then we are experiencing this big drop based on……,,yes as usual…..,nothing.
AAPL earnings today. Apple sales rise 5%, topping estimates as iPad and Services revenues jump https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q3-2024.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Apple reported earnings after the bell on Thursday. iPhone, iPad, and Services revenue all beat analyst expectations. Apple reported fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations, with overall revenue rising 5%. Apple shares were flat in extended trading. Here’s how Apple did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the quarter ended June 29: EPS: $1.40 vs. $1.35 estimated Revenue: $85.78 billion vs. $84.53 billion estimated iPhone revenue: $39.30 billion vs. $38.81 billion estimated Mac revenue: $7.01 billion vs. $7.02 billion estimated iPad revenue: $7.16 billion vs. $6.61 billion estimated Wearables, Home, and Accessories revenue: $8.10 billion vs. $7.79 billion estimated Services revenue: $24.21 billion vs. $24.01 billion estimated Gross margin: 46.3% vs. 46.1% estimated Apple expects about similar overall revenue growth in the current quarter as the June quarter, which was 5%, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said on a call with analysts. Apple also expects Services to grow at about the same rate as the previous three quarters, which was about 14%. Apple expects September quarter operating expenditures between $14.2 and $14.4 billion, Maestri added. Apple said it expected September quarter gross margin to be between 45.5% and 46.5%. Apple reported $21.45 billion in net income during the quarter, versus $19.88 billion, or $1.26 per share, in the year-ago period. Apple’s most important business remains the iPhone, which accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales during the quarter. While Apple beat LSEG estimates, the product line still declined about 1% on an annual basis to $39.29 billion in revenue. “On a constant currency basis, we grew year on year. And so that’s sort of how we look at it from an operational point of view,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC’s Steve Kovach. Cook said that while Apple doesn’t know about the positive sales impact from its newly announced Apple Intelligence service until it starts shipping to customers later this fall, he said that Apple had been increasing spending to get the service ready. “What we’ve done is we’ve redeployed a lot of people on to AI that were working on other things,” Cook said. “From a data center point of view, as you know, we have a hybrid approach. So we both have our own and we partner with people. And so that capex would be in the partners’ financials, and we would be paying expense.” “Certainly embedded in our results this quarter is an increase year over year in the amount we’re spending for AI and Apple intelligence,” Cook continued. Apple showed strongest growth in its iPad division, which grew nearly 24% year-over-year to $7.16 billion in sales. Apple released new iPads during the quarter for the first time since 2022, which spurred a wave of upgrades. Cook said that about half of iPad buyers haven’t owned one before, suggesting the tablet market is not yet saturated. Apple’s Mac division reported $7 billion in sales, up about 2% from the year-ago quarter. Apple Watch sales, headphones such as Beats or AirPods, and HomePod home speakers are reported under “Wearables, Home, and Accessories.” Sales in the catch-all category declined 2% to $8.10 billion during the quarter. “A whopping two thirds of the Apple Watch buyers were new to the product. So, we’re still growing that base significantly,” Cook said. The Services business is most important growth category for Apple and includes hardware warranties, revenue from Google, monthly cloud storage subscriptions, and the company’s content subscriptions, such as Apple TV+. The company reported $24.21 billion in Services sales, up 14% and in-line with Apple’s forecast and LSEG estimates. Apple said in a statement that it had more active devices in each of its regions than it ever had before, without providing a specific number. Apple’s active device count is important because it signifies a group of existing Apple customers to which it can sell its profitable services. Apple said in February that it had 2.2 billion active devices. Apple said it had 1 billion paid subscriptions, which includes subscriptions to iPhone apps through Apple’s App Store. However, Apple sales declined 6% to $14.72 billion in greater China, a region that also includes Taiwan and Hong Kong. Apple is under pressure in mainland China as local rivals such as Huawei introduce competing products. “I don’t know how every chapter of the book reads, but we’re very confident in the long-term,” Cook said on a call with analysts. Apple said it spent $32 billion on dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. " MY COMMENT A...CLEAR BEAT. Of the categories above ONLY MAC revenue was very slightly below estimates. Of course.....it is now IMPOSSIBLE for earnings to satisfy the markets.
AS to AMZN....the usual. Amazon stock tumbles on weaker than expected sales outlook https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amaz...er-than-expected-sales-outlook-145652068.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Amazon's (AMZN) stock fell as much as 5% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company reported third quarter sales guidance that missed analyst estimates. The company guided to a range of $154 billion to $158.5 billion in sales for the period, compared to analyst forecasts of $158.43 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Even as the retail and cloud giant brought home earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, beating estimates of $1.04 and nearly doubling profits from the same period last year, investors focused instead on the report's weaknesses. Amazon generated revenue of $148 billion, a touch below the $148.8 billion that analysts expected, but even the slight miss failed to impress. The company's booming advertising segment, which has routinely grown by double-digit percentages, continued to show strength, but that segment too came in just below expectations, registering $12.8 billion in revenue versus the $13 billion expected. A bright spot of the report came from its cloud business, Amazon Web Services. AWS raked in $26.3 billion in revenue compared to the $26 billion expected and well above the $22.1 billion during the same time last year. Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky told reporters on a call after earnings that AWS is poised to generate more than $105 billion annually. Like several of its peers, Amazon is investing heavily in infrastructure to support the rapid deployment of new AI technologies and cloud services. Olsavsky said the company has spent just over $30 billion in the first half of the year on capital expenditures, owing to the growing need for AWS services, including demand for generative AI tools. Amazon expects those investments to increase for the second half of the year, he said. On the ecommerce front, the everything store has drawn increasing competition from the likes of Temu and Shein, companies that specialize in low-cost goods that rely on a direct-from-factory supply chain. Amazon is reported to be developing a discount digital storefront of its own to directly compete for fashion and lifestyle spending. “We are seeing cautious consumers," Olsavsky said. "They are looking for deals.” "Amazon’s topline growth came in short on softer consumer spending in a quarter sandwiched between two major sales events — the Big Spring Sale in March and Prime Day in July," said eMarketer principal analyst Sky Canaves in a statement. "Amazon will have to position its offerings and promotions to take advantage of these trends, such as with the reported plans to launch a Temu-like discount section in time for the holidays this year," she said. The report wrapped a wave of Big Tech results that have flashed warnings that investors have limited patience for massive AI spending. Any weakness in the core business has heightened the scrutiny on Wall Street. Amazon's report arrived days after its cloud rival and AI competitor Microsoft (MSFT) beat expectations on the top and bottom lines but missed on cloud revenue, sending shares lower. Prior to that disappointment, Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) posted lower-than-expected YouTube ad revenue, which also sent investors running. Meta (META), on the other hand, earned the applause of Wall Street, delivering better-than-expected results for revenue and profit, even as executives warned they anticipate "significant" capital expenditures in 2025. Shares gained more than 4% Thursday. Apple (AAPL) reported earnings alongside Amazon after the closing bell, beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines despite a year-over-year decline in iPhone sales." MY COMMENT Being a bull.....I dont think I would call this a MISS. I would call it a neutral report or a "push". Close to being a BEAT but not quite there. Here is the key info above: "Even as the retail and cloud giant brought home earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, beating estimates of $1.04 and nearly doubling profits from the same period last year, investors focused instead on the report's weaknesses." Typical.
EVERY one of my stocks RED today. The markets have been really "pissy" lately for the last 1-2 months. I also lagged the SP500 today by 2.07%.
What the heck are you guys doing to let this happen??? The markets the past few days have had some nutty swings. At times I think it is up and then….no it is selling out….only a day later to be up nicely and then….no it is back down and sometimes both. It has some kind of disorder. Happy one minute and straight to the looney bin the next.
I think even with all of the ups/downs…I am about unchanged for a week so far. So, really nothing, even though it seems like it would be much different.
Looking forward to our usual Friday show tomorrow. I have not played with this sort of band before....but the material is coming along. I am hearing that after three shows we are now exceeding the tightness of the prior line-up.....and....sounding better than they did. As a side-person my goal with anyone that I play with is to make them sound the best they have ever sounded. I am also getting all fired up for an art auction in the fall. The catalog for the auction has not been released yet....but....there is a particular painting that we know is going to be in the auction. It will be a big purchase if we pursue it.....probably in the mid to high five figures. The last purchase of any significance that we made.....in January.....was a bronze sculpture in the low five figure range. For a purchase like the painting above......I will probably bid by telephone since I dont want to travel to attend the auction. I expect that we will attend an early preview of the auction to see the painting and make a final decision. I have been researching the past five years of the auction to see if there are any clear price trends. I have also been researching the artist. I am hoping that the CRAZY recent stock markets might impact some bidders........by discouraging them from bidding as much as they might otherwise. It is always a big let-down to prepare for an auction and have the anticipation build for months and than not get the item. BUT.....like investing....going into an auction you have to have a plan and have a limit on what you are willing to bid. That is what is going on right now for me in the non-investment world.
Since I too am ignoring the markets, here is a short unsolicited story: I enjoy going to auctions, mainly large car auctions like Barrett Jackson and Mecum. The last auction I bought something was last year, not a car auction, but my wifes grandpas estate. Her aunts side pillaged most anything of value but he had a couple guns that I was interested in but so where they and not because they are avid shooters. I offered to buy them at market value and provided recent sales but they wanted it to go to auction. So I took a vacation day off work, drove a hour to the auction, bought the guns and a couple of his train lanterns that the wife wanted and left. One was a late 1970's 12 gauge wingmaster and the other was a .22 1950's scoremaster. Nothing of huge value but I figured it would be something cool to pass down to my son from his great grandpa. I shoot trap a couple times a year so the wingmaster will get a little use and the .22 is a great starter to learn gun safety and proper handling once he is older.
RIGHT....suddenly people care about the economic data. WE are headed to a hard landing.....run for your life....run for your life. SORRY....a FED rate cut this month would change NOTHING. SORRY....the economic data is hindsight outdated data....and is extremely corrupt and unreliable. SORRY.....the big cap tech and other big companies are NOT going to suddenly see any drop in their business. BUT......when the markets simply want to go down.....they will go down. Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions. Health care again led, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000). Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, fueling fears of a broader economic slowdown, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation barometer, increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Stock market futures added to losses following the report while Treasury yields plunged. The labor market had been a pillar of economic strength but has recently shown some trouble signs, and the July payrolls increase was well below the average of 215,000 over the past 12 months. “Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there’s no summer heatwave for the job market,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the ManpowerGroup employment agency. “With across-the-board cooling, we have lost most of the gains we saw from the first quarter of the year.” From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000). Leisure and hospitality, another leading gainer over the past few years, added 23,000. The information services sector posted a loss of 20,000. While the survey of establishments used for the headline payrolls number was discouraging, the household survey was even more so, with growth of just 67,000, while the ranks of the unemployed swelled by 352,000. The participation rate as a share of the working-age population edged higher to 62.7%. The report adds to mixed signals recently about the economy and with financial markets on edge about how the Federal Reserve will respond. Though markets on Wednesday cheered indications from the Fed that an interest rate cut could come as soon as September, that quickly turned to trepidation when economic data Thursday showed an unexpected jump in filings for unemployment benefits and a further weakening of the manufacturing sector. That triggered the worst sell-off of the year on Wall Street and renewed fears that the Fed may be waiting too long to start cutting interest rates. Easing wage gains could help policymakers feel more confident that inflation is progressing back to their 2% goal. The rise in the unemployment rate brings into play the so-called Sahm Rule, which states that the economy is in recession when the three-month average of the jobless level is half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low. In this case, the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023 before it began its gradual ascent. The three-month unemployment rate average moved up to 4.13%. “The latest snapshot of the labor market is consistent with a slowdown, not necessarily a recession,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “However, early warning signs suggest further weakness.” Roach pointed out that the ranks of those working part-time for economic reasons jumped to 4.57 million, an increase of 346,000 to the highest level since June 2021. An alternate measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons surged 0.4 percentage point to 7.8%, the highest since October 2021. Long-term unemployment also ticked higher. Those reporting being out of work for 27 weeks or more totaled 1.54 million, the most since February 2022. Wall Street had been bracing for modest gains from the July payrolls report, in part over concerns about growth but also from residual impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The storm badly damaged parts of Texas including the Houston metropolitan area. Despite some anxiety over the state of economic growth, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday expressed confidence about the “solid” economy and said easing inflation data is raising confidence that the central bank can cut soon. Markets have fully priced in a rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point at each of the three remaining Fed meetings this year. Odds are rising that the Fed even may go beyond traditional quarter point reductions. “While the labor market has remained remarkably resilient over these past two years of elevated interest rates, it’s important for the Federal Reserve to stay ahead of any further labor market slowing by proceeding with its expected September rate cut,” said Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth." MY COMMENT Can you say September rate cut? DUH. Do you really think that a small cut this week would make any difference to the above? Do you really think that waiting one month for the first cut would make any difference to the above? Answer.....NO. What we are seeing today at the open is a good old fashioned panic. Classic herd behavior triggering an AI trading FRENZY. At the same time should there be any confidence in this economic data.....NO. It defies ALL PROBABILITY that the constant monthly revisions are ALWAYS to the down side. This data is CORRUPT. It is unreliable and NOT accurate. In other words it is meaningless. In addition if anyone thinks the FED has any ability to control the economy by cutting interest rates......well....think again.
The FED.....what a joke. People attribute some god like ability to them to control inflation and/or the economy. Welcome to reality....they are powerless. About all they can do is trash-talk the markets down. How do I know this....because their inflation target of 2% to begin with is simply BS. It is a made up number with no connection to reality. A normal.....historical..... inflation target which they refuse to use would be 3-4%. In addition jerking interest rates up and down really does nothing except impact people trying to buy a house or small companies that dont have the ability to generate free cash flow. BUT HEY.....a week ago we were in a "rotation".......now......we are in a impending "recession". Quite a little trip around the economic world in simply four or five days. As to the rotation.....how are those small caps looking now? Nearly a majority of them don't make any profit. Many of them will go belly up and never make a profit. If we do have a weakening economy......NOT where I want to be invested. ALL this MEDIA drama and is BS. But that does not mean we will see a recession or a market correction. I have no doubt that the markets can talk themselves into a 10% drop. Is it rational, does it make sense......short term....who knows. We will only know in hindsight about 6-12 months from now. AND.....there is no way I will react in any way based on current market and economic events.
Anybody going to bring up INTC?!!!? It's almost like they are competing with BA to see who can completely destroy a once iconic company by making the worst possible leadership decisions.
LOL.....INTC. They used to be NVDA in the 1990's. One of the worst examples of management malpractice that I can think of. They totally squandered the huge advantage they had back than over the last 20 years. They basically made themselves irrelevant. AND....good for you TireSmoke with the guns and lanterns. You and your kids will be able to enjoy them....and they will be a nice remembrance of father and grandfather for your family. It is important for kids to understand their heritage.
Oh yes....the Ten Year Yield.....currently down to.....3.842%. LOL.....I just heard Varney say......somewhat sarcastically....."hey whats going on......I always heard that when interest rates come down big tech does well". The constant print media blather about the big cap stocks being so interest rate sensitive over the past 2-4 years......is simply one of the MOST RIDICULOUS things I have ever heard. Hopefully people are now seeing the truth.....that this is simply more BS. There is no way these companies should be interest rate sensitive.....at all. They generate so much free cash flow.....they dont care about rates at all.
