A good news day all the way around. US new home sales rise to highest level in more than a year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-rise-more-141740408.html "....a drop in mortgage rates boosted demand, offering more evidence that the housing market is recovering." NOW....imagine the frenzy we are going to see then mortgage rates dip into the 5-6% range. BUT HEY....remember just a couple of weeks ago.......it was all about....RUN FOR YOUR LIFE, THE RECESSION IS HERE. YES.....there is no recession. It was all media fear-mongering and short term traders pushing the narrative. What a load of BS.
My mom was a long time investor in this company. Over 50 years her initial......14 shares.....in 1964, grew to a HUGE position. It got so big we had to quit reinvesting dividends. Altria Boosts Its Dividend for the 55th Straight Year. Yield Is Now Nearly 8% https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6262c264-d218-3d30-82fb-5a0081486454/altria-boosts-its-dividend.html
Of course.....with extremely high TEMPS.....104 to 108....one of our AC units is off. We need a new evaporator in one unit since it was found to be leaking Freon when the AC guy was here the other day. I was sure that was the case when I called to set up the service appointment. It is always something. A nice little budget hit in the sum of about $2600. The repair is scheduled for next Monday morning. We have fans going from the bedroom wing of the house and from the Primary Bedroom to try to pull cool air from those areas. We are able to keep the main part of the house....entry, dining area, living area, and kitchen......at about 75 by doing that. This is the second evaporator we have had to replace in the past month. Our house is about 7 years old and so are the AC units. So hopefully we will be all good for another 7-8 years minimum. Modern living.....BUMMER.
Never mind that the data is corrupt and worthless.....these CLOWNS can not even manage to get it out there properly. ‘It’s just atrocious’: Jobs snafu stokes fury on Wall Street https://finance.yahoo.com/news/just-atrocious-jobs-data-snafu-233036744.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) — There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now. But as traders and analysts game planned for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and then Nvidia’s earnings and economic-growth data next week, many of them were stuck on Wednesday’s botched government release of jobs data and the way it sowed chaos across stock and bond markets. And they didn’t mince words. “It’s just atrocious,” said Glen Capelo, a managing director at Mischler Financial Group. “There’s a big problem,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. “It’s crazy,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities. The problems began when the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release a key revision to jobs data at 10 a.m. New York time as had been expected. That error was compounded when BLS officials then began to provide the data — which showed that job growth estimates will be marked down significantly — to analysts who called up the agency. So for a few excruciating minutes, a handful of firms, including BNP Paribas and Mizuho Financial Group, had the data while everyone else was left in the dark as markets shot higher and lower. Rumors flew, with some regurgitating the correct number and others spreading incorrect figures. The BLS finally released the data on its website a little after 10:30 a.m., when it showed that the number of jobs created in the year through March was likely to be revised down by 818,000, the most since 2009. Brenner got ensnared in it all. He had heard an economist say on CNBC that the revised number was down 676,000 and quickly blasted it out to clients. “Then about 10 minutes later, everyone corrected me.” The government, he said, is “using backward systems and I don’t think they have a clue as to how important some of these numbers are.” The staccato swings in stocks and bonds during the delay made it difficult for anyone who had managed to get the number to profit from it but that’s little solace to Brenner. To him, the price action in some parts of the Treasuries market — like five-year and seven-year notes — made clear to him that some were trading off the data. “No question about it,” he said. The botched release is the latest in a series of embarrassing mishaps involving the Labor Department’s data releases, which have long been a crucial guide for investors trying to discern the health of the economy and the direction of interest rates. In May, the BLS inadvertently published consumer-price data 30 minutes early. A month before, records showed an agency economist answered numerous inquiries from major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and BlackRock on details of data related to the inflation gauge, raising questions about the selective release of information. And in late 2022, stock futures surged in the moments before an inflation release, spurring speculation that the number had been leaked. Hair-trigger financial markets have been rattled, of course, by all sorts of things over the years. Hoax press releases and premature corporate releases have frequently set off market moves. But US government data plays an outsized role in shaping the perception of the economy, making any breach or shortcoming a major cause of consternation. A BLS spokesperson told Bloomberg Wednesday that the agency’s inspector general has been asked to look into what happened, saying “the integrity of our data releases is BLS’s top priority and we are closely reviewing our procedures to ensure this does not happen in the future.” Representatives for BNP Paribas and Mizuho didn’t respond to phone calls and e-mails seeking comment. ‘Stone Ages’ The disgruntled on Wall Street, to be clear, aren’t directing their anger at the firms that obtained the data. They all had wanted to get it, too. Their frustration is almost solely with the government. And few on Wall Street were as caustic in their assessment as Capelo. “The fact that this was a number that had been talked about, they knew it was important and then to flub it like this,” said Capelo, who joined Mischler after stints at firms including Salomon Brothers and RBS Greenwich Capital. That these mistakes keep happening again and again is a big part of what galls Capelo. “Is it completely unfair? Absolutely. Should it be changed? Absolutely. We are not living in the stone ages. It should be pretty easy to fix.’ The jobs-revision data usually doesn’t generate much interest outside economics circles. This time, though, investors were eagerly awaiting it. Both stocks and bonds had been gaining in recent weeks on speculation the labor market is cooling so much that the Fed will finally start cutting interest rates. The data wound up helping to confirm that picture, showing that the government had actually overestimated the number of jobs that had been created. (At Jackson Hole on Friday, Powell left no doubt that rate cuts are coming soon.) The trading during the delay — and immediately after — was erratic. It was hard to parse whether the figure was ultimately positive or negative for the stock market. For bonds, the takeaway was more straight-forward. It was bullish. Yet even there, the price moves were disjointed. What was clear, though, is that trading volumes spiked around that half-hour delay. Vineer Bhansali, the founder of asset-management firm LongTail Alpha, just sat back and watched the chaos. He said he wasn’t actively trading in the Treasuries market just then. But still, he appreciated how bad it could have been for him or anyone else who had put a position on and was left waiting for the numbers. “If you get caught off-sides because you don’t have the data, you can get super screwed,” Bhansali said. And then he repeated something many others said: The government needed to take action to fix these glitches and fast. “This issue is definitely something people should be looking at.” MY COMMENT At the least INCOMPETENCE......at worst.....corruption by our government. It defies all laws of PROBABILITY that the numbers are constantly worse than initially reported. The revisions always go in one direction.....to the worse. On top of that you have the above situation where certain people get the data early....and others are left swinging in the wind. I dont need proof to "believe" that these releases are selective and are basically LEAKS. They just inadvertently happen to give the inflation data to Blackrock and JP Morgan (see above).....yeah right. This is how you have people lose FAITH in the markets. AND...."FAITH" is critical to a market system.
A good rally in the markets today. I had eight of nine stocks UP today with mini-position PLTR being my only down stock. I also beat the SP500 by 1.27%. I got back everything that I lost yesterday and a little bit more. We are all set up for next week and the NVDA earnings on Wednesday.
A good week for me and the markets. DOW year to date +9.17% DOW five days +1.24% SP500 year to date +18.80% SP500 five days +1.39% NASDAQ 100 year to date +19.23% NASDAQ 100 five days +1.04% NASDAQ year to date +21.07% NASDAQ five days +1.29% RUSSELL year to date +10.23% RUSSELL five days +3.49% A very good week fort the markets.....ALL.....the averages up by over 1% for the week. As for me......my total account is now up by +46.38% year to date. I did not post a result last Friday. the last time I did a result was on August 9, 2024 and at that time my entire account was at +32.90% year to date.
It begins.......the Ten Year Treasury is now BELOW 3.8%. As of right now it sits at 3.797%. Looking at a chart it appears to me to be the lowest in about ONE YEAR.
I still like my CMG stock.......a mini-position.....even though I currently have a loss. That is simply how it goes in the randomness of the short term. Their only issue right now is the current leadership change. My hope is that they will simply stick with the current management team and DO NOT bring in anyone new. it would be a disaster to bring in come CELEBRITY CEO. They have now finally gotten past the negative Social Media campaign that was waged against them for many months....with a very poor response or even recognition of the negative power of the issue.....by the PRIOR CEO. My preference....keep the current team in place and promote the temporary CEO......Scott Boatwright..... to the job for the long term. He has a very long history of success in the fast food and semi-fast food industry and sound like he has everything the company should want in a leader. He is the long time Operations chief. And: "The 51-year-old former Arby’s executive has decades of restaurant experience and was central to Chipotle’s efforts to resolve food-safety problems."........ "Boatwright has spent years working closely with restaurant managers, employees and franchisees, and is known for having an open-door policy, according to industry executives who have worked with him. At Arby’s, Boatwright was often dispatched to markets that needed operational help, said Melissa Strait, a former chief people officer at Arby’s who worked with Boatwright. “He could go in there and, pretty quickly, figure out what was holding a market back,” Strait said. He also has a sense of humor".......... He sounds like exactly what you want for a CEO......great experience, a good crisis manager, a great operations person that is totally in touch with the restaurants, employees and franchisees....as well as the customers. He has a huge amount of restaurant experience. AND....does not sound like an EGO-MANIAC. Chipotle’s Next Boss Has One Job: Don’t Change Too Much https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-next-boss-one-job-093000582.html
I think.....(I am too lazy to go back and find it)......my SP500 year end prediction for the SP500 back at the start of 2024 was 5800. At the time I think I was higher than any of the published experts that I was seeing. NOW.....with four months left in the year it is at......5634. Only 2.9% away from my prediction. BUT.....with four months to go......NOTHING is set in stone yet. At this moment in time the SP500 is up by 18.80% year to date. It has been a very good year....way above the historic norm......for the average of about 10-11% annual total return over the long term. The average has been ON FIRE for the past five years with the following returns: 2019 +31.44% 2020 +18.39% 2021 +28.99% 2022 (-18.11%) 2023 +24.43% AND....actually going all the way back to 2009....after we came out of the 2008/2009 near economic collapse.....it has had only a single negative year from 2009 to 2018. 2009 +26.49% 2010 +14.91% 2011 +1.97% 2012 +15.96% 2013 +32.18% 2014 +13.18% 2015 +1.25% 2016 +12.34% 2017 +21.67% 2018 (-4.52%) The above is a HUGELY SUCCESSFUL ..........fifteen year run.......for the Index. This is why the SP500 is what I measure my performance against and why it is my preferred Index for anyone that does not want to bother with owning individual stocks or managing a portfolio. AND....as we know.....just about NONE of the professional money managers and professional stock pickers can beat the SP500 long term.
A good question....but....for most people the answer is "nothing" can or should be done. How investors can prepare for lower interest rates: It’s ‘like getting a haircut,’ advisor says https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/23/fed-powell-lower-interest-rates-investing.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled on Friday that lower interest rates are ahead. It would be the first time the central bank cut rates since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors likely shouldn’t do much to prepare for that shift, advisors said. They can expect lower-risk assets like cash and short-term bonds to pay less of a return. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave the clearest indication yet that the central bank is likely to start cutting interest rates, which are currently at their highest level in two decades. If a rate cut comes in September, as experts expect, it would be the first time officials have trimmed rates in over four years, when they slashed them to near zero at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors may be wondering what to do at the precipice of this policy shift. Those who are already well diversified likely don’t need to do much right now, according to financial advisors on CNBC’s Advisor Council. “For most people, this is welcome news, but it doesn’t mean we make big changes,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. “It’s kind of like getting a haircut: We’re doing small trims here and there,” she said. Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’ Many long-term investors may not need to do anything at all — like those holding most or all of their assets in a target-date fund via their 401(k) plan, for example, advisors said. Such funds are overseen by professional asset managers equipped to make the necessary tweaks for you. “They’re doing it behind the scenes on your behalf,” said Lee Baker, a certified financial planner and founder of Claris Financial Advisors, based in Atlanta. That said, there are some adjustments that more-hands-on investors can consider. Largely, those tweaks would apply to cash and fixed income holdings, and perhaps to the types of stocks in one’s portfolio, advisors said. Lower rates are ‘positive’ for stocks In his keynote address on Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said that “the time has come” for interest-rate policy to adjust. That proclamation comes as inflation has fallen significantly from its pandemic-era peak in mid-2022. And the labor market, though still relatively healthy, has hinted at signs of weakness. Lowering rates would take some pressure off the U.S. economy. The Fed will likely be choosing between a 0.25 and 0.50 percentage-point cut at its next policy meeting in September, Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics wrote in a note Friday. Lower interest rates are “generally positive for stocks,” said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and chief executive of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Businesses may feel more comfortable expanding if borrowing costs are lower, for example, she said. But uncertainty around the number of future rate cuts, as well as their size and pace, mean investors shouldn’t make wholesale changes to their portfolios as a knee-jerk reaction to Powell’s proclamation, advisors said. “Things can change,” Sun said. Importantly, Powell didn’t commit to lowering rates, saying the trajectory depends on “incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” Considerations for cash, bonds and stocks Falling interest rates generally means investors can expect lower returns on their “safer” money, advisors said. This would include holdings with relatively low risk, like cash held in savings accounts, money market funds or certificates of deposit, and money in shorter-term bonds. High interest rates have meant investors enjoyed fairly lofty returns on these lower-risk holdings. However, such returns are expected to fall alongside declining interest rates, advisors said. They generally recommend locking in high guaranteed rates on cash now while they’re still available. “It’s probably a good time for people who are thinking about buying CDs at the bank to lock in the higher rates for the next 12 months,” said Ted Jenkin, a CFP and the CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial, based in Atlanta. “A year from now you probably won’t be able to renew at those same rates,” he said. Others may wish to park excess cash — sums that investors don’t need for short-term spending — in higher-paying fixed-income investments like longer-duration bonds, said Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. Fed Chair Powell is ‘a bit more definitive’ on rate cuts than I’d imagined, says Roger Ferguson “We’re really being aggressive about making sure clients understand the interest-rate risk they’re taking by staying in cash,” she said. “Too many people aren’t thinking about it.” “They’ll be crying in six months when interest rates are a lot lower,” she said. Bond duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes. Duration is expressed in years, and factors in the coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term. Short-duration bonds — with a term of perhaps a few years or less — generally pay lower returns but carry less risk. Investors may need to raise their duration (and risk) to keep yield in the same ballpark as it has been for the past two or so years, advisors said. Duration of five to 10 years is probably OK for many investors right now, Sun said. Advisors generally don’t recommend tweaking stock-bond allocations, however. But investors may wish to allocate more future contributions to different types of stocks, Sun said. For example, stocks of utility and home-improvement companies tend to perform better when interest rates fall, she said. Asset categories like real estate investment trusts, preferred stock and small-cap stocks also tend to do well in such an environment, Jenkin said." MY COMMENT For stock investors there is not much need to do anything. For those that have safe money, cash, or short term money....you will want to evaluate your interest needs and LOCK IN what you can now. If money is not going to be needed for multiple years you might want to extend your time span in CD's and other interest rate sensitive investments. In any event there is plenty of time to think and plan your course of action. The rate cuts are going to take at least a year to a year and a half and will be gradual.
Not a bad list below to consider..... (Fidelity Viewpoints) 1. Worrying that every market stumble is the start of a crash Sudden market pullbacks are always unnerving. And investors who are already anxious about stocks might see every market stumble—such as the ones experienced in April, July, and August of this year—as the potential start of a major downturn. But the truth is these temporary setbacks are actually routine occurrences in the stock market. “Markets don’t go up in a straight line,” says Denise Chisholm, director of quantitative market strategy for Fidelity. “Market corrections and steep pullbacks always feel like a panic. But in fact they’re very common.” Just as a mountain climber needs the occasional break to refresh, the market sometimes needs to take a breather and regroup before it continues its march. Oftentimes, these pauses or temporary declines signal that the market is processing new information and that investors are recalibrating their expectations. Far from always being bearish signs, sometimes these dips can indicate that the market is coming into better balance. (Read more about why the recent pullback may have actually created opportunity potential.) 2. Avoiding the stock market because it’s gone up Even after the market’s recent pullback, US stocks have had a strong year so far. Given the series of new all-time highs it’s made in the past few months, many investors may be wondering if it’s time to get out, not in. “After seeing the stock market rise quite a bit, many investors start to wonder whether or not this may continue,” says Naveen Malwal, institutional portfolio manager with Strategic Advisers, LLC, the investment manager for many of Fidelity’s managed accounts. “Hearing that the market has made an all-time high may even make some investors nervous enough that they avoid investing more or even cash in some of their winners.” Part of the concern may stem from misunderstandings of market history. When investors and analysts describe past market cycles, they often note that the market made a new all-time high before declining, with the all-time high marking the end of a bull market and the start of a bear market. But this can lead to a misconception that any all-time high will precede a pullback. “If you look back historically, the market making an all-time high is a very common occurrence,” says Malwal. Bull markets have often spanned multi-year periods when the market has made one all-time high after another. Investors who took every all-time high as a sell signal would have missed out on substantial gains. “It’s not true that whenever the market has made an all-time high, a correction has come around the corner,” says Malwal. “More often, the market has continued to rise.” 3. Focusing too much on a narrow group of stocks The recent bull market has been unusually concentrated, with only a few stocks accounting for an outsized portion of the market’s returns since 2022. This kind of market dynamic can be a recipe for investor distress. Investors who missed the ride can get hung up on regrets. “Many of us end up kicking ourselves for not having invested more in a space that has done remarkably well,” says Malwal. Investors who caught the wave may see their portfolios grow increasingly concentrated, and face the fraught decision of whether or when to sell. But ultimately, trying to make big bets on small groups of stocks may be very risky, and leave an investor vulnerable to a correction. Instead of fixating on recent big movers, focus on formulating a sensible and well-rounded plan for the future. “Rather than trying to guess what’s going to be the next big thing, what we have found helps investors more over the long run is to diversify and invest across a whole host of investments,” says Malwal. “Investors who are diversified may not experience so much of the booms or busts that might occur with a narrower set of investments, so they tend to have an easier time sticking with their plan, and they historically have experienced healthy growth.” 4. Holding too much in CDs and other short-term investments Short-term CDs and Treasurys have come into favor among many investors in the past 2 years as rates have risen. Many investors feel comfortable in these investments due to their low risk of default and predictable cash flows. “There are many wonderful features of short-term investments,” says Malwal. “But investors with a long-term outlook have historically often been better off in stocks.” The key challenge with short-term investments is a lack of stronger growth potential. “While it’s true that stocks may be more volatile than short-term investments or bonds in the near term, over the long run stocks have provided much higher returns,” says Malwal. Although rates on these investments may appear attractive, they may not be providing much growth after accounting for inflation. Moreover, with rates potentially poised to fall if or when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, staying in short-term positions could leave investors exposed to reinvestment risk. Says Malwal, “Investors who have time on their side can typically benefit from having a broader exposure to stocks and bonds, or a combination of the 2, as opposed to staying in short-term investments for a long time.” 5. Not factoring taxes into investing decisions Investors often think of their brokerage accounts as accounts they should use for trading stocks or pursuing their latest ideas. But because brokerage accounts are not tax-deferred, Malwal says this can lead to one of the top mistakes he sees: generating a bigger tax bill than necessary. Actions like trading a lot and holding tax-inefficient investments can increase investors’ tax bills. “Generally speaking, in taxable accounts, investing tax-efficiently and making gradual changes may help investors keep more of what they earn before taxes,” he says. Simple actions like choosing a mutual fund that trades less or keeping in mind the potential benefits of lower long-term capital gains tax rates may help investors keep more of what they potentially earn. 6. Letting the perfect be the enemy of the good Analysis paralysis can be a problem for any investor. Even if you’ve come up with a solid investing plan, it can be easy to get hung up on “what if” questions. What if I’m missing out on an even better investment option? What if the market crashes tomorrow? What if my plan just doesn’t work out? The reality is that investing is inherently uncertain. Even the most experienced investors can only work off estimates, not certainties. While investors might worry about the “right” answer to any given investing question—like what investment to buy or when to get into the market—the fact is there may be a range of reasonable solutions. But one thing has been true time and again historically: Over long periods, investors have done better by being in the market than being out of the market. If you’ve got a well-rounded, suitable plan that’s sensitive to your financial needs, then don’t let hangups about the perfect investment or the perfect time derail you from your goals. 7. Focusing too much on news headlines and politics There’s no shortage of worries or risks in the world right now. Malwal says he sees many investors staying out of the market in the hopes that the landscape will look more stable at some future time. “Some investors feel like they should wait because there’s an election happening. Or maybe they want to wait until their candidate is in the Oval Office, or until Congress is favoring their preferred issues,” he says. Others may worry about the tense state of global affairs, or risks to the economy. Rather than using news headlines or gut feeling as indicators on the market, Malwal suggests investors go deeper into the economic data that actually helps drive the stock market—like corporate earnings, economic growth, stock valuations, and consumer spending. This data may not paint as sensational a picture as news headlines, but may be a better guide to market potential. (Read more about the “vibecession,” or why investors may feel the economy is weaker than it is.) After all, the world has always been perilous. “It’s very rare for me to sit back and think, ‘There’s nothing to worry about right now,’” says Malwal. And yet, through decades of uncertainty and challenging news headlines, the market has still made big strides.
KILLER stuff above Smokie. When you boil it all down.....it is basically common sense. Just like about 95% of investing. Simple.....best. Common sense....best. Investing for the long term....best. Market timing.....bad. Trading....bad. Complexity....bad.
The markets to come: Nvidia earnings highlight a busy end of August: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-august-what-to-know-this-week-144305612.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) The market's recovery will be tested this week with earnings from AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) after the bell on Wednesday. Also reporting earnings Salesforce (CRM), Best Buy (BBY), Dell (DELL), and Lululemon (LULU) , a critical reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will top off the economic calendar. (Core PCE) MY COMMENT Cant wait.
I generally agree with your post, and it holds mostly - not completely - true for me. Simple, common sense investing for the long term: good! Absolutely agree! Market timing: bad! Simply because it's not possible, to the best of my knowledge. One comment I would add here: considering whether the market in general - or a specific stock or investment - appears to be overbought or oversold by all data and checkpoints one has available is NOT the same as market timing, and for me, is often beneficial. Trading: bad! I will say for me, trading is bad! BUT I know there are some people who are highly educated, skilled and experienced in trading who make a lot more money doing it than I will ever have. I'm not one of them. I consider them somewhat like sports stars or movie stars: not everyone can do it, and most cannot! And, as myself and a few others have mentioned in these forums, 'trading' or, in contrast, buying long shot investments for the long term, might not be 'bad' if you are doing it with a small amount of what one might consider 'play money', based on their personal financial position. Similar to NOT be a 'gambler', but while in Vegas or on a cruise ship with an onboard casino, setting aside a reasonable amount of 'play money' that can be written off as 'entertainment expense'. I usually set aside $200-$300 to play blackjack anytime I'm going to Vegas or on a cruise, for instance. I don't expect to win a lot of money, but I know going in I won't lose more than I set aside for that purpose. Complexity: bad! This is a double-edged sword. I agree that too much complexity is bad! But the opposite risk is for those who keep things TOO simple! For example, two ways of keeping it simple would be 1. hire some financial advisor to handle your investments and then don't give them much thought, except when you check in with the advisor for a review and update once every six months or a year. 2. buying an index fund (examples: FSKAX, SPY, QQQ) and then only making contributions to that fund only, and not giving it much thought or attention, otherwise. For some people, #2, a single index fund, might work out okay, if they have not the time, inclination or aptitude to deal with investing.
Someone is going to owe some BIG capital gains taxes. Babe Ruth’s ‘called shot’ was legend; jersey he wore that day just sold for staggering sum https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2...re-that-day-just-sold-for-staggering-sum.html The amount it sold for........$24.12MILLION dollars. Apparently the owners basis.....what they paid for it was......$940,000. Of course that owner was a LONG TERM investor having held the jersey since 2005.
You know.....in all my years of investing.....I have NEVER met a single person that was successful at trading. Sure some have a good run for a short time or a while.....but....long term.....nope. I have also NEVER met a single trader that takes taxes into account when they are talking about their trading wins. There may be someone, somewhere, that can do it profitably......but I have never heard of them. I would put the odds at about like winning a major lottery prize. I have no issue with someone trading with a small amount of money for enjoyment and the challenge. In fact......I have no issue with someone trading with ALL their own money. It is their money and they can do what they want. As to the SP500 and being too simple.......I consider simply putting all in the SP500 and letting it run for the long term as one of the ULTIMATE and most successful investment strategies ever. I dont do it because I happen to have a good record of beating the SP500 over the long term. BUT at the same time....this is an internet message board.....so how does anyone know what is the truth on here.....even my posts? So I try to stick with posting "stuff" on here that can be researched and found out independently to be true. AND....I would be happy to get the long term total return of the SP500 and I suspect that just about EVERY investor......professional or amateur......would have a very difficult time beating the total return of the SP500. In fact the academic research strongly proves this. BUT....Rayak.....you understand where I am coming from in saying the above. I am talking investing probability and generality. AND.....in my opinion.....EVERYONE should invest how they want and find what works for them. LOL....even if what they think works for them....does not really work in reality.....as long as someone is doing what they do with open eyes and awareness.......good for them....it is their money. Or....even if they are a complete fool and throwing their money away.....it is not up to me to tell them how to manage their own money. BUT....for purposes of this thread....I am going to support realistic and rational investing. That is one of the BIG purposes of this thread.......for others that wish to...... to learn from what people post on here. And for people to pick and choose what they want to take away from this thread and use in their own investing life. I know we are pretty similar in our thinking Rayak. BUT....even if we were not.....that is all good. I welcome anyone to post anything about any style of investing on here. It is a good learning experience for all of us. It is a good thing to have debate and give and take and many different opinions on here. I have ZERO interest in arguing with anyone about opinions on a message board. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I am not a MOD but as far as I am concerned this thread is and and should be a....TOTALLY OPEN AND TOLERANT FREE SPEECH ZONE....as to anything or any opinion as to any aspect of investing. I have not said it in a long time.....but please.....EVERYONE is entitled to and welcome to post on here. No matter if you are a trader, market timer, speculator, Technical Analysis fan, etc, etc, etc. So come on you LURKERS.....post away as much as you wish.
As good a chance of winning the lottery as long term success as a trader? I don't know. I prefer my analogy of sports stars and movie stars. In your world, WXYZ, you have almost certainly met more than your fair share of celebrities, but I have only truly MET very few sports stars in person ( I don't count situations such as saying "hello", "great game" or getting an autograph at live sports events ) and I've never met a real movie star. The closest I have come in that regard are a few TV stars (the most famous of which wasn't even an actor, Ed McMahon) and a few Broadway actors and celebrities, the most famous of which were Bette Milder, Elaine Stritch and Harold Prince. Even those three were little more than autograph signings. It's a lot easier to believe that sports stars and movie stars exist - and even meet them - because they are so visible by the very nature of their work. True successful traders are generally not the ones hawking books and classes - the real successful traders usually don't want anyone to know about them and keep very low profiles. Again, I can't do it, but I could never have been a sports star or movie star, either. And for most of us, as with successful trading, it just isn't a viable option. Doesn't mean it can't be done - just that most, including me - can't do it. I will cease and desist on the topic now, having typed my piece.
Like WXYZ said, taxes almost never gets mentioned in the same sentence as traders trying to beat the market. I often think about that. To your post, another thing never seems to get mentioned: Time. Time spent researching, analyzing charts, making trades, agonizing over timing and made mistakes. Say someone does beat the market due to skills/luck... does whatever extra they made worth all that time and worry? And if, like the motto goes "time = money", did they break even? Was it worth it over spending time doing something more... fun/exciting? I'm betting not. We only live for a short amount of time. I'm pretty sure that there has never been the utterance "I really wish I spent more time day trading" on someone's deathbed. WXYZs approach, all things considered, kicks the crap out of trading. Making money and having freedom? Can't beat that.
Nice to have some discussion above....guys. That is where the REAL.....good stuff....on here comes from.
