A nice happy open for the markets today. ALL the big averages nicely green. NOW.....lets maintain this for the rest of the day.
Here is more on a little blurb that I posted last night. OpenAI Funding Round Tempts Nvidia as Big Tech Leans on ChatGPT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-discusses-joining-openai-latest-193621980.html
My PLTR continues to be mini-position. Under 200 shares. But....I am continuing to like this stock. The performance has been excellent. Up by 92% over one year. Up by 89% YTD. Up by 19% over the past month. I also like the fact that much of these gains are due to earnings success and adding new private customers as well as some nice government contracts. A nice little holding so far. In some of the other accounts that I manage.....like my kid and sibling....I have expanded the position into a more normal percentage of the account. It is not there yet....but it is starting to look like it might make the cut as a longer term holding.
Same as above with my other mini-position....CMG. Now that they have finally properly responded to the Social Media hit job campaign....they are performing well as a stock. Their earnings continue to be very good.....and.....I have no issue with the CEO leaving. I hope they make the interim CEO permanent. I still have a loss in my position.....my short term timing was not the greatest on this stock. BUT....I dont care about short term timing......I am an all in, all at once...... investor. I am confident right now....that this company will continue in my portfolio and will become a long term holding.
It is a very light news and article day today. I think all the news writers and the markets wore themselves out in the FRENZY as we approached the NVDA earnings. The inflation data today did not give them any ammunition for continued fear mongering regarding the FED. SO....we might get a good old fashioned.....NORMAL....day in the markets today. Life is good in the neighborhood.
The suspense is building....can we hold onto the gains for another 15 minutes. It seems like we have turned the corner from yesterday. YEA.... That was a HUGE waste of a GREAT earnings BEAT yesterday. Can you imagine if any other company had put up those numbers?
Looks like the markets made a good bump up in the last fifteen minutes. I had a good green day with....I think....only one red stock....AAPL. I also beat the SP500 by 0.17%. We start fresh with a new week and a new month on Tuesday. HAPPY LABOR DAY WEEKEND
The week that is now in the past DOW year to date +10.20%. DOW five days +0.88% SP500 year to date +19.09% SP500 five days +0.15% NASDAQ 100 year to date +18.30% NASDAQ 100 five days (-0.71%) NASDAQ year to date +19.96% NASDAQ five days (-0.86%) RUSSELL year to date +10.10% RUSSELL five days (-0.63%) My week this week....I ended the week with my entire portfolio being at....+42.87%...year to date. Last week my entire portfolio year to date was at.....+46.38%.
I cant resist this little article. Nvidia will grow to a $10 trillion company and the Blackwell chip will be like 'fireworks' for the stock, analyst says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-grow-10-trillion-company-230256744.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia is on track to more than triple in value, according to Beth Kindig, the lead tech analyst at I/O Fund. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Kindig said she foresees Nvidia notching a $10 trillion valuation over the long term. That implies monster gains for the $2.9 trillion AI titan, largely due to strong expected growth and gains from its next-generation AI chip, dubbed Blackwell, Kindig said. Investors on Wall Street have grown concerned that Nvidia is becoming overvalued, given its massive run-up over the past year and investors' enormous expectations for earnings growth. Nvidia shares fell as much more than 6% Thursday after the company beat earnings for the second quarter, albeit more narrowly than previous quarters. Investors also have concerns about Nvidia's Blackwell chip after industry analysts reported that the chip's launch would be postponed by two to three months due to "major issues in reaching high production volume." Kindig argues that Nvidia's results were still "great," and enough to brush off investors' concerns heading into the results. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended the progress on Blackwell in a recent interview with Bloomberg, revealing that the company made a "mass change to improve yield" and was looking to pull in "billions of dollars" in revenue from the next-gen chip. "That's why things are being revised up and they were never revised down," Kindig said of Nvidia estimates, adding that she remained positive on Blackwell's upcoming release. "They're saying Blackwell is basically on time. Blackwell is not a concern. If anything, it's extremely bullish." Kindig predicted that Nvidia's growth trajectory should become more apparent once Wall Street analysts upwardly revise fiscal estimates for the following year. That should be a "big moment" for Nvidia, followed by the release of shipping volume figures for Blackwell in 2025. "That's going to be fireworks, is how I would put it. Absolute, ultimate fireworks for Blackwell will come in Q1, with that Q2 guide," Kindig said. "Early next year will be fireworks again for Nvidia, and we will be on track for that $10 trillion." Kindig's forecast for the chip company is among the most bullish, though Wall Street is still feeling optimistic about the chipmaker. Analysts have issued an average price target of $151 per share, per Nasdaq data, implying another 27% upside for the stock over the next 12 months." MY COMMENT BULLISH....is an understatement. I will wait and watch....as usual. If this happens it will be fantastic.....but.....I am not in the business of counting chickens. Like the FED I will be guided by the data as it becomes available.....quarter by quarter. In the meantime I have no plans to buy any more NVDA.....it is already too top heavy in my portfolio. Sometimes it seems like an analyst makes an outlandish prediction to get attention or with the hope that if it is right they will be recognized as a STAR. I dont know anything about this person....but....it will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 1.5 years.
AHHHHHH....PEACE. We are done with earnings......and they were good. We are done with the FED and will in all likelihood see rate cuts start in September. We will now have 1.5 to 2 months of peace before the next earnings season starts. Economic data....at this point.....who cares. It should be a nice PEACEFUL market for the next 1.5 months.
As I was saying above. The peak interest rate era is over. Here’s what investors are watching https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/02/the...s-over-heres-what-investors-are-watching.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points In September, the U.S. Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to join the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Mexico and others in cutting key rates. Analysts are eyeing a broadly supportive environment for equities through the rest of the year and beyond, but warn of several key risks. Currency markets will continue to focus on short-term rate expectations and the extent and pace of monetary easing. Central banks around the world are set to kick off or continue interest rate cuts this fall, bringing an end to an era of historically high borrowing costs. In September, the U.S. Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to join the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Mexico and others in cutting key rates, which have been held at levels not seen since before the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. Money markets had already fully priced in a rate cut from the Fed, but last week investors gained even more confidence in the path of easing ahead. At the annual Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell not only said the “time has come for policy to adjust,” but that the central bank could now equally focus on doing “everything” it can to keep the labor market strong and continue progress on inflation. Current pricing suggests high expectations for three 25 basis point cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That will keep the Fed roughly in-line with its peers, despite it moving later. The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates by 25 basis points at least three times in total this year; and the Bank of England by the same increment a total of three times, according to LSEG data. All three central banks are seen further continuing monetary easing at least in early 2025, even as stickiness in services inflation continues to trouble policymakers. For the global economy, that means a broadly lower-rate environment next year, along with significantly reduced pressures from inflation. In the U.S., a recent spike in recession fear has largely abated, and despite where there is weakness in big manufacturing-oriented economies such as Germany, the likes of the more services-focused U.K. are recording solid growth. What all that means for markets is less clear. European stocks, as measured on the regional Stoxx 600 index, rebounded in 2023 from a downturn in 2022 and gained nearly 10% in the year-to-date to reach an intraday record high on Friday. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index is 17% higher so far in 2024. The VIX volatility index — which spiked amid the global equities downturn at the start of August — is back below average, Beat Wittmann, chairman and partner at Porta Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday. “The market, in terms of price momentum, in terms of valuations, of sentiment, has pretty much recovered, and we are going into the seasonally weak September, October period here. So I would expect choppy markets driven by various factors, geopolitics, corporate earnings, bellwethers like from the AI sector,” Wittmann said. Choppiness will also be due to an “overdue consolidation correction” and some sector rotation occuring; but “the asset class of choice here very clearly for the rest of this year, and then especially for ’25 and beyond, is equities,” Wittmann added. Even if recent Fed commentary appears supportive for stocks, data from the U.S. jobs market — with the next key report due Sept. 6 — remains important to watch, Manpreet Gill, chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday. “Our baseline is still very much that a [U.S.] soft landing is achievable... It almost becomes a little bit more binary, because as long as we avoid that downside risk, equity earnings growth is still very supportive, and we’ve had sort of the positioning clean out in the recent pullback,” Gill said. “And I think rate cuts, or at least expectation of those, really was the last piece markets were looking for. So on balance, we think it’s a positive outcome,” Gill said, referring to the risk of U.S. economic data causing volatility in the coming months. Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux, told CNBC Tuesday that bonds have had a strong summer and equities have recovered; but that investors must now take a “leap of faith” on where the U.S. economy is heading and the pace of rate cuts. “I truly think that the more rate cuts you get, the likelihood that [these cuts are] coming with negative data and hence weakening earnings momentum is very high. So it’s difficult, I think, to be too optimistic,” he said. The stock market has meanwhile shown that there is an element to which it “couldn’t care less about interest rates,” Girod added, since Big Tech has rallied across the peak rate months — which conventional wisdom states should harm growth and technology stocks. That will keep events such as Nvidia earnings as the key ones to watch, according to Girod. FX focus on rates In currency markets, attention will remain on the interplay between inflation, rate expectations and economic growth, Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, told CNBC by email. If the euro rises significantly against the dollar, “the disinflationary implication may have some impact on market expectations regarding the timing of the ECB rate cuts,” she said. Stateside, Foley continued, “the result of the U.S. election will have implications for the Fed. If Trump wins, he could use an executive order to increase tariffs fairly quickly which would spur inflation risk and could cut the Fed’s easing cycle short.” Rabobank currently sees four Fed rate cuts between September and January and then a hold for the rest of 2025, providing the U.S. dollar with the potential to strengthen into the spring. “The BOE’s hand will likely remain constrained by services sector inflation, which is a function of wage inflation. This could limit the pace of BOE rate cuts to once a quarter,” Foley added." MY COMMENT Yes.....we are heading back to a NORMAL market once we clear out the current rates. Trillions of dollars will be maturing in CD's and other safe investments over the next 1-2 years and that money will have to go somewhere. I suspect that some of it will finally come back into the stock market as rates fizzle. The continued greatest wild card.....the election......and the policies that we will have to live with for the next four years..
Nice for COST owners. Costco's first membership fee increase in 7 years now in effect Costco says price hike to effect 52 million memberships in US and Canada https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/costco-first-membership-fee-increase-7-years-now-effect (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco’s plan to raise the price of its membership for the first time in seven years took effect Sunday. The wholesale club increased annual membership fees by $5 and $10 in the U.S. and Canada, with "gold star" and business memberships up from $60 to $65, and executive memberships increasing to $130 from the earlier $120, the company said. The cost increase will impact around 52 million memberships, a little more than half of which are the club’s executive members, Costco said in a July press release. Costco last raised membership fees in June 2017. Membership with the wholesale giant comes with a multitude of perks such as testing of free samples; discounts on food, gas, home insurance, travel and grocery items; and an annual 2% reward on qualified purchases at its 882 warehouses worldwide. Costco reported $19.26 billion in net sales in the July retail month, which ended on Aug. 4. This was up 7.1% from 2023. Revenues from membership fees were up 7.6% in the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Membership fees made up 1.9% of the company's total revenue for the fiscal year." MY COMMENT A core holding of mine for many years. A great company with great management. This fee hike is money in the bank for shareholders......at the same time for members.....it was done with sensitivity and was held to a realistic amount. Here is what it means to shareholders: "In the 2024 first quarter, fee income was $1.1 billion. Assuming an 8% growth rate, in line with the third-quarter year-over-year increase, the fee income could rise to approximately $1.19 billion by the 2025 first quarter. Adding another 8% from the membership fee increase, fee income could further increase to about $1.28 billion. This projection shows how the combined effects of membership growth and the fee hike could significantly boost Costco's revenue." "Costco records membership fees as part of revenue, so it will show up as $100 million in added revenue." https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/16/how-much-costco-may-make-from-a-fee-hike/
I am already seeing a lot of media hype on this. The Reality Behind Stocks’ ‘Worst’ Month What to make of the worst calendar month for stocks? https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...mentary/the-reality-behind-stocks-worst-month (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After starting on a heck of a down note, August also brought a sharp recovery from the midsummer pullback. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4% on the month and a whisker away from July 16’s prior high. Yet some fear the real pain lies ahead, as we now move into September—historically the “worst” month for stocks. Don’t let September’s purported poor past haunt your portfolio—it is just a month, not inherently better or worse for stocks. Market history buffs may know September has the dubious honor of being the only month whose average total return is negative (-0.8%).[ii] It has also been on a losing streak recently—down in the past four years (including September 2022’s -9.2%).[iii] But take a step back. Over the past 98 years, September is still positive 51% of the time—slightly more often than not.[iv] Moreover, some huge outliers skew the monthly average.[v] The worst monthly return of all time was September 1931 (-29.6%), during the Great Depression. Another deep negative September (-8.9%) was in 2008, the month the US government intentionally dismantled Wall Street as we knew it. It sowed chaos by forcing Lehman Brothers to fail after having midwifed a Bear Stearns rescue six months prior and nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac days before … then nationalizing AIG days after Lehman. The worst month of 2022’s sentiment-driven bear market was September (-9.4%)—and a bull market began a couple weeks later. The myopic focus on some poor examples also overlooks some excellent Septembers, including 1939’s (16.9%) and 2010’s (8.9%) or 1954’s (8.7%). The upshot: The median return, which removes outliers both ways, is 0.0% (flat). Look, the numbers are the numbers, and September’s haven’t been great relative to other months. But correlation isn’t causation. Lehman Brothers didn’t collapse because the calendar flipped to September. It is also happenstance that stocks took their standard late-bear market pounding in September 2022. Other bear markets ended—and had their worst runs—at other points on the calendar. One could look at any calendar month and find bad outliers. March had two big double-digit declines in 1938 and 1939, respectively (-24.5% and -13.2%).[vi] November has one of the highest average monthly returns (1.4%); that didn’t prevent 1948’s -10.3% drop.[vii] December—one of the strongest months historically—fell -9.0% in 2018.[viii] But these months don’t have the “worst month” reputation, so no one goes back to parse bad Marches, Novembers and Decembers. Humans unconsciously seek things that support pre-existing narratives—classic confirmation bias, like all those shark sightings after Jaws came out. Exhibit 1 provides another way to look at this, displaying each month’s average return and its tally of big up and big down moves. As you will see, September isn’t a huge outlier in the big down department. Its 15 tallies of returns worse than -5.0% is the highest, but barely. August has 14, while May has 12. September’s real weakness is that it doesn’t have as many big positive returns as the other months to offset the bad times. September topped 5% just 8 times since 1926, with May next closest (with 12 instances). Amusingly, the Santa Claus Rally is the inverse of this. There were 15 Decembers greater than 5.0%, which is middle-of-the-road—but just five below -5.0%. So the bullish December phenomenon is more like a lack of Santa Crashes (not as snappy of a ring, we guess). Exhibit 1: Seasonality, Dissected Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 8/30/2024. Some argue election uncertainty may rear its head this September, making one of those bad Septembers even likelier. Sounds logical. But does it hold true? Actually, in presidential election years, September has been positive 62.5% of the time (15 of the 24 instances since 1928)—better than the month’s overall frequency and less than 1 percentage point below all months’ frequency of positive returns.[ix] Its average return is still negative, at -0.1%, but this is due primarily to the aforementioned 2008 debacle.[x] The month’s negativity far predated John McCain’s shock decision to leave the campaign trail to join Senate deliberations on the crisis. Similarly, in 2000, the presidential campaign didn’t pop the Tech bubble and cause the -5.3% September return.[xi] The median return, less skewed by outliers, is 0.3%.[xii] But here is the really critical thing: September is only a month, which likely isn’t very relevant to most investors’ actual time horizons. Shed the myopia and think bigger picture. Even with the history of some awful Septembers, stocks’ long-term average annualized return is 10.2%.[xiii] If you try to invest around the possibility of a bad September, you could miss one of the good Septembers that contributes to this return—to say nothing of knowing when to get back in. After all, people see October as an extension of September’s “Financial Hurricane Season.” So rather than get hung up on the calendar, we suggest refocusing on your long-term goals and the path likeliest to get you there. If that path includes stock exposure, then entering the month of September isn’t solid reason to veer from that." MY COMMENT YES....focus on the big picture and the long term. The particular month we happen to be in is irrelevant. It is all about TOTAL RETURN over the long term.
Here you go regarding the above. You will see this stuff repeated over and over. It makes for a great sensationalistic topic. Stormy September lies in wait for markets everywhere Treacherous September is leaving traders everywhere on edge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treacherous-september-leaving-traders-everywhere-064213055.html
Fortunately for me and many others......I am not a "TRADER". So do I care about this sort of superstition.....NO. If I did believe it.....as a long term investor.....I would be looking to put money into the market in September to get the bargain prices that the "worst month of the year" will give me.
Of course as I say the above....we are seeing ALL the big averages down today to start the month of.....September. BUT.......actually.....there is nothing happening today of any importance to the markets. And....not really much happening this week. Lots of HYPING of the jobs report on Friday. I suspect that the media is now going to have to focus on economic reports and data since most of their other fear mongering topics have now evaporated.
This little article has some good data on PLTR. Palantir Stock Rides AI Momentum As Bears, Bulls Debate Valuation https://www.investors.com/news/technology/pltr-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "There's plenty for bulls and bears to hash out over Palantir Technologies (PLTR). Bulls point to improved profitability for PLTR stock. Bears focus on whether revenue growth will reaccelerate for Palantir stock. Then, there's buzz over artificial intelligence stocks to consider for the maker of data analytics software. Also, PLTR stock has advanced 83% in 2024. And, Palantir stock ranks No. 16 on the IBD 50 roster of growth stocks. In addition, Palantir is among AI stocks to watch. According to research firm Forrester, Palantir ranks among the leading AI platforms. Further, Palantir in August hired Mike Gallagher, a former Wisconsin congressman, as head of its defense business. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings for Palantir stock topped expectations. Analysts with bearish views on Palantir stock continued to question its valuation. However, IBD doesn't put much weight on P/E ratios and other valuation metrics. On the other hand, here are some time-tested trading rules. In a rare interview, Palantir Chief Executive Alex Karp talked about AI, America's future and other topics. Palantir Stock: AI Product Ramp Palantir has already mined the AI opportunity with government customers for intelligence gathering, counterterrorism and military purposes. Now Palantir aims to use generative AI to spur growth in the commercial market. The company continues to make progress with its "Artificial Intelligence Platform," initially rolled out in early 2023. Palantir hosted its fourth AIP event on June 6. At AIPCon4, Palantir said over 70 customers presented their prototype to production-grade AI use cases via Palantir's "bootcamps," said a Jefferies report. More than 1,300 AIP bootcamps have been completed since 2023, including 900 this year and nearly 500 since March. However, Palantir has not disclosed pricing for AI products. Some analysts say Palantir needs to show more progress with generative AI commercial deployments. Additionally, Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir forged an AI partnership. PLTR Stock: Project Maven Extended Still, Wall Street analysts now do not expect software makers to monetize generative AI, or "conversational AI," in a material way until 2025. Here's a look at the enterprise AI market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Army on May 29 announced that it has extended Palantir's existing Maven Smart System (MSS) contract for five years. Palantir was one of the early contractors for Project Maven, launched in 2017. Project Maven is part of the U.S. Army's effort to bring artificial intelligence to the battlefield. The Maven contract brings in about $90 million annually, one analyst estimated. Also, Palantir announced that the Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) awarded a contract that could be worth $480 million over a 5-year period On the news front, there's plenty for investors to mull. Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir announced a cloud computing alliance. In addition, Palantir has won a new, $178 million U.S. Army contract for project TITAN, a battlefield system using artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, here's a look at Palantir's international business, including how AI is doing in Europe. Also, Palantir stock jumped 167% in 2023. The Nasdaq composite climbed 43% while the S&P 500 rose 24%. PLTR Stock Fundamentals In addition, PLTR stock trades well below the software maker's all-time intraday high of 45 set in late January 2021. The Denver-based company offers three platforms. One is Palantir Gotham, used primarily by government agencies. There's Palantir Metropolis for banks, financial services firms and hedge funds. And Palantir Foundry is used by corporate clients. Palantir gets nearly 60% of its revenue from government agencies. Decelerating revenue growth is an issue. In 2022, revenue growth slowed to 24% from 40% in 2021 and 47% in 2020. In 2023, revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $2.23 billion. Palantir Stock Technical Analysis Meanwhile, Palantir's Relative Strength Rating stands at 96 out of a best-possible 99. Also, Palantir stock holds a Composite Rating of 99 out of a best-possible 99, according to IBD Stock Check-up. IBD's Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better. PLTR stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B-plus. That rating analyzes price and volume changes in a stock over the past 13 weeks of trading. A+ signifies heavy institutional buying; E means heavy selling. Think of a C grade as neutral. As of Sept. 3, Palantir holds an entry point of 29.83, according to MarketSurge. Also, Palantir stock trades above a 5% buy zone. Some investors may want to take profits." MY COMMENT Like many young companies.....the bull versus bear debate on PLTR will continue. What will clarify the situation for this company is....TIME. My primary account holds a mini-position in this stock that was funded by a very short term trade profit that gave me 104 FREE shares. The stock has done well for me over the time I have held it....which is less than a year.....but I want to see how it does over a longer time span.....at least two years. I do like what I have seen so far from their management and their aggressive pursuit of new customers and business. I also like some of the recent partnerships they have been forging. Basically.....it is going to take a few years to see how all this AI "stuff" sorts out.
NVDA is down big today.....over 6%. In fact ALL my stocks are red today. It is a....red wave. We are seeing a NO-NEWS day today and this week.....where the scary negative headlines will create a trading frenzy for the AI HEADLINE SPEED TRADERS. A nice little self-fulfilling prophesy day today. The question is will it engulf the entire week. With earnings over and the first FED rate cut pretty much in the bag.....there is nothing left for the markets to focus on. SO....it will just basically be a SOCIAL MEDIA type market environment....all turmoil, emotion, speculation, rumor, drama queen, media fear-mongering, etc, etc, etc. After all something has to fill the news vacuum.
On a day like this....there is nothing for me to do but IGNORE the markets and just move on. It is a waste of time to try to figure out or explain the short term markets.
