The Long Term Investor

As usual poor BOEING just can never get a break. Although most of their issues are their own fault.

Factbox-Boeing strike puts spotlight on 737 MAX customers waiting for deliveries

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-boeing-strike-puts-spotlight-150017298.html

This company is a complete DISASTER. Their own worst enemy.

 

Markets are looking really good right now for mid-morning. ALL the big averages are GREEN and it appears that there is a good chance of another market day like we have had over the rest of this week. There is really NOTHING going on and all the economic and other news has been very positive.

It has been one of those weeks when we see that the recent market weakness....especially with big tech....has been WAY OVERBLOWN. People that took advantage of the fire-sale prices are already being rewarded.

As for me....right now eight of my nine stocks GREEN....my single red stock.....CMG....is just slightly in the red and has good potential to turn green later in the day.

LIFE IS GOOD.

 

I do agree with this little article. The impact will be more PSYCHOLOGICAL than anything else. BUT....do not discount the potential market impact of "psychology".

I did note the other day that the national average for a 30 year mortgage was now at 6.2%. No doubt there will be a good likelihood of rates dropping into the 5% range over the next 2-6 months.

Don’t expect ‘immediate relief’ from the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in years, economist says. Here’s why

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/13/wha...federal-reserves-first-rate-cut-in-years.html

Key Commentary

• The Federal Reserve is going to cut rates for the first time in four years....this month, September.
• This policy shift is welcome news for consumers and the economy — but dont expect a single rate cut to deliver immediate and dramatic relief.
• See the article for a breakdown of what to expect when the Fed starts trimming its benchmark.

MY COMMENT

Rate cut timing is September 17-18 at the next FED meeting. Current FED benchmark is 5.25% to 5.50%. Unless some disaster with the economic news happens we should see this reduced into the 4% range by the start of the new year.

YES.....the BULL MARKET is alive and well and potentially could extend for another 1.5 to 2 years. Of course the largest potential fly in the ointment....the election.

 

HERE is what I was talking about earlier. This is why I have ZERO confidence in the financial media. Fear-mongers extraordinaire.

The headline today:

"Stocks rise with jumbo Fed cut back on the table"

A headline a day ago:

"Why a Big Fed Rate Cut Could Send Stocks Reeling"

 

AND......as usual....funny how all the headlines and stories about how dismal September is for investors have disappeared suddenly.

The day to day "stuff" is ......CRAZY. No place for a long term investor. So I note it on here.....but ignore it all.

AND......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

WOW....I did not notice that it was FRIDAY THE 13th.

 

I ended the day in the green. I had five stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. DOWNERS were NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, and CMG. I am happy to be in the green today with those four down. I also got beat by tthe SP500 today by 0.27%.

 

A GREAT week for the markets.

DOW year to date +9.75%
DOW five days +2.07%

SP500 year to date +18.62%
SP500 five days +3.38%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +18.07%
NASDAQ 100 five days +4.91%

NASDAQ year to date +19.76%
NASDAQ five days +5.04%

RUSSELL year to date +8.43%
RUSSELL five days +4.27%

As for me....at the close today my entire account year to date was....+43.47%. I did not do a figure for last Friday so the last result I have is for August 30th. So two Fridays ago I was at +42.87% year to date for my entire account. This data is pretty deceptive since between the 30th of August and now we went through a BIG DROP in the markets. So I had a very significant jump UP this week.

It is nice to be back into the +40% or higher gain range with only 3.5 months to go in the year.

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

 

We continue to be in a very erratic and schizophrenic market. BUT....this week was the week for the markets to SHINE.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally Friday to cap best week in 2024

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting their strongest week of 2024 ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.54% and closed at 5,626.02, less than 1% from its July all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.65% to end at 17,683.98. Both indexes posted their fifth consecutive winning day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
jumped 297.01 points, or 0.72%, closing at 41,393.78.

Utilities, communications services and industrials led the market higher on Friday, with each sector adding roughly 1%.

Investors also continued to rake up shares of megacap tech and semiconductor names, which helped drive this week’s rebound rally after tech’s recent underperformance. Powerhouse chipmakers Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings added 3.4% and 5.9%, respectively. Alphabet advanced 1.8% and Uber
jumped more than 6%.

“Investors are on guard for further bouts of volatility, particularly given the expectations surrounding the Fed meeting,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. She noted that based on historical patterns, stocks typically have their roughest performance of the year during the second half of September.

On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 rose 4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.9%, the best week this year for both indexes. The Dow has advanced 2.6% during the period.

Wall Street is now looking ahead toward the Fed’s policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, where the central bank is largely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Currently, the Fed’s target rate is sitting at 5.25% to 5.5%.

Economic data reflecting a moderation in inflation also seemed to support the case for a rate cut. The consumer price index in August came in at 2.5% on annualized basis, the lowest level since February 2021. Wholesale prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% in August, coming in line with expectations."

MY COMMENT

HOPEFULLY the first of many rate cuts next week will drive stocks higher. But who knows....the short term is CRAZY and OPAQUE. It was nice to have a record week this week (strongest week of 2024). And in September....no less. This is why you simply stay invested all the time....you never know when the explosive moves UP will happen. One week you are in the toilet....the next week you are cheering as the markets are on fire.

 

HERE is the sad story of the FALL OF NIKE......although they fail to mention the big elephant in the corner of the room.....that they pissed off half their potential customer base.

The Man Who Made Nike Uncool
Instead of transforming the sneaker giant into a high-tech powerhouse, John Donahoe pissed off partners and disappointed fans.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...9.ipsOaB_HAChuRxd8uKc5JIbBEJOP7LJf-3VBsbG_x3U

 

Last week I was visiting Jackson Hole Wyoming.

We went there for the Fall Arts Festival. We also went there to preview the art that was going to be auctioned in the Jackson Hole Art Auction.

Here is the schedule of Festival events this year......for anyone that might be interested next year:

https://www.jacksonholechamber.com/fall-arts-festival/schedule/

We had a good time in Jackson. We rented a nice upscale cabin in the Jackson Hole Golf and Tennis Club that looks right at the main Tetons. During the time we were there we participated in many Art Festival events, drove the Teton Pass, visited Driggs and Victor Idaho, drove from Jackson to Yellowstone, checked out the Teton Village ski area, and visited most of the small towns in the area.

Weather was 70's and low 80's the first five days but started to turn chilly......50's.....the last couple of days.

We also drove around the "National Elk Refuge" which is located just outside Jackson....over 24,000 acres. No Elk were in the area since they were still all up in the mountains and come down onto the refuge in the winter. They will start to trickle in over the next 2-5 weeks. We also visited the "Jackson National Fish Hatchery.......which produces native Cutthroat Trout.

It was a very nice drive out to Yellowstone....about 53 miles....but we did not go into the park since we have seen it extensively in the past.

We were lucky to get to see bears, foxes, antelope, and a moose....in the Jackson area..

Jackson is an art and outdoor paradise. There are galleries all around the main square and all over the little downtown. The art festival included a number of Gallery walks with art, artists and food from local restaurants. The area is a HUB for Western Art and Wildlife Art.....mostly paintings and bronzes. The "National Museum Of Wildlife Art" is located there and has an amazing historic collection.

A nice event held as part of the festival was the Western Design Show featuring......."artists, scholars, collectors, interior designers, architects, and fashion designers with a passion for the West. From documented American craft, to home design, to fashion the Exhibit + Sale encompasses all aspects of the best of Western design. This event celebrates functional museum-quality creations capturing the spirit of the West. During the Western Design Conference Exhibit + Sale you’ll meet the artists whose handcrafted works in leather, metal, home accents, woodworking, mixed media, jewelry, and fashion will be showcased and available for purchase at our spectacular location in beautiful Jackson Hole".

My wife had $2500 in mad money. Every year we let the cash-back build up on our credit card. This year it amounted to about $2500 which she used to buy a few small items at the Design Show. Her big purchase was a Native American Ledger Painting by Native American Artist John Isiah Pepion.

ALL IN ALL.....a good trip.....and a good preview of the auction.

Fortunately for us the FED was not there during the time we were there.......and....it was great to see that everyone on here did a very nice job of building up my account while we were gone. I followed the market generally.....but when traveling I do not ever access my actual account.

 

I did have success in the Jackson Hole Art Auction.....which was held yesterday. We were back home.....so I did my bidding by telephone. I was successful in winning the painting that we were after......with a short but ferocious bidding war.

When I bid at an auction I always have a predetermined top number. My wining bid was right at my top number and I was very surprised that I was not taken out by someone else going one bid higher. it was a real nail biter....waiting for the hammer to fall.

I will wire the funds to the auction next week and the painting will need to be crated up and shipped to us. They have enough Texas buyers in the auction that they hire an art shipper to drive a van from Jackson to Texas for painting deliveries. We are probably looking at about the first week of October for delivery.

A nice major work for our little collection.

BUT.....BUMMER....I am going to be out a CHUNK of money for this painting. SORRY.....I am not going to give specifics on the price to protect my privacy.

 

Well......now......back to the real world and real life. I am looking forward to the first FED rate cut next week. LETS HAVE A GOOD MARKET AND MAKE SOME MONEY.

 

Ok....something we have looked forward to for a long time.....no not approaching thanksgiving and Christmas......FED rate cut week. We are finally there.

AND....according the the financial media over the past 2-3 years......the BIG CAP tech companies are very interest rate sensitive.....so it should be amazing.

Fed interest rate decision looms in critical week for markets

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...markets-what-to-know-this-week-114003428.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks managed to secure solid wins ahead of a critical monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve, which has investors on edge over how aggressively the central bank will bring down interest rates.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led markets higher to nab its best week of the year, up about 6%. That weekly best was echoed by the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC), which saw an uptick of 4% as both gauges notched their fifth straight day of gains on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also ended the week in the green, up around 3%.

The positive swings come as traders have flip-flopped on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points or opt for a more robust 50 basis point cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. No matter the size, it will be the first rate cut from the Fed since early 2020.

Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said there's a "strong case" for a deeper cut as FOMC members attempt to maneuver a "soft landing" of the economy. That, along with reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal that suggested policymakers were struggling to come to a decision, have fueled expectations for a jumbo rate cut.

Outside of the Fed decision, investors will also be monitoring the health of the consumer, with retail sales for the month of August on the docket for Tuesday. The housing market will also be top of mind after mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since February 2023.

A weekly update on jobless claims is also on the schedule, as well as activity checks from the manufacturing sector.

In corporate news, quarterly reports from FedEx (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Lennar Corporation (LEN), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) will headline the earnings calendar.

FedEx will be in particular focus, as earnings from the delivery conglomerate are often viewed as a bellwether for the state of the broader US economy.

The Fed's big decision

The Fed will announce its next monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets are largely split on whether the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.0% to 5.25% or by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%.

Friday saw a significant jump in expectations for a 50 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. As of Friday afternoon, traders had placed a roughly 49% probability policymakers would commit to that larger rate cut, compared to just a 28% chance one day prior.

There's a case to be made for both. On the one hand, inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target on an annual basis with hotter-than-expected readings on monthly "core" inflation suggesting the Fed should err on the side of caution and cut by just 25 basis points.

"With core inflation coming in higher than expected, the Fed’s path to a 50 basis point cut has become more complicated," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote following Wednesday's CPI report for the month of August.

"The number is certainly not an obstacle to policy action next week, but the hawks on the committee will likely seize on [the] CPI report as evidence that the last mile of inflation needs to be handled with care and caution — a formidable reason to default to a 25 basis points reduction."

But other economic data points, including a jobs report that indicated a weakening labor market, suggest the central bank may already be behind the curve.

"We believe what the Fed should do next week is clear: recalibrate the policy rate 50bp lower to adjust for the shifting balance of risks," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "What the FOMC will do is less clear, but we’re sticking with our call that they will do the 'right' thing and cut 50bp."

Along with its policy announcement, the Fed will also release updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

In June, Fed officials saw the fed funds rate peaking at 5.1% in 2024, suggesting just one 25 basis point cut to come this year. But the narrative has shifted quite considerably since that time. And with markets now pricing in 100 basis points' worth of cuts through the end of 2024, Wednesday's dot plot will show investors whether or not central bank leaders agree.

"Our baseline still assumes 25bp cuts at every other meeting, but the odds of a faster pace has increased given the Fed's goal to prevent more weakness in the labor market," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote on Friday.

Overall, stocks could turn volatile no matter which direction the Fed takes. That makes Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-decision press conference all the more important.

"Powell’s task at 2:30pm next Wednesday will very much depend on what the Committee chooses to do at 2:00pm," Feroli said. "If it decides to cut 50bp, Powell will need to convey that the action is intended to support the outlook for sustained expansion in an environment of low inflation. If instead the FOMC opts for a 25bp cut he will need to indicate that the Fed stands ready to ease more aggressively on any sign of labor market softness."

Consumer check

A fresh reading on retail sales will also be closely tracked on Tuesday as investors wait to see whether or not July's robust rebound in sales can be sustained.

Economists expect that retail sales declined 0.2% in August from the prior month, which would mark a significant deceleration from the 1% sales growth surprise seen in July. Excluding gas and autos, expectations are for a 0.3% increase.

"The already-reported decline in vehicle sales will weigh on headline retail sales in August, but we anticipate a modest increase in core and control group sales, which will keep real consumption on track for a small gain in August," Oxford Economics' Vanden Houten said. "Real disposable incomes growth is proving resilient, and high-frequency indicators suggest consumer spending is continuing to steadily rise."

She added, "There are still no signs that weakening in the jobs market is feeding through to slower growth in consumer spending.""

MY COMMENT

BLAH, blah, blah. Who cares. The markets do not run on unreliable and often phony economic data. AND....no.....the FED really has no control of the economy. What will actually count for the markets is the.....psychology....of the whole event.

No one will remember how much the first rate cut was in a year or two. No one will care about the consumer expectations this week.

As usual it will all be about business fundamentals and business results.....for the long term.

BUT....it does make for a dramatic story line for the media. I doubt that anyone on here will be buying or selling anything based on the above information this week.

AND....I say....GO BIG OR GO HOME.....lets do a big rate cut....0.50%....and get the ball rolling. We can always back off later if needed.