The Long Term Investor

A very typical short term open today.

I have come to the conclusion that the short term markets are now completely IRRATIONAL. There is rarely a day when they make any sense anymore. Is it the AI TRADING PLATFORMS? Market manipulation? Collusion? The impact of HUGE money? The big banks and insiders? Government? The rampant stupidity of people obsessed with screens and the shot term media? All of the above....none of the above?

Today is the perfect example. We know that the FED is going to start the process of rate cuts on Wednesday. All that is undecided is whether it will start with 0.50% or 0.25%. Either way it is.....overwhelmingly.......a totally a market positive.

There is no drama, no question, no doubt.....it will happen. There is also......NO.....logical reason for stocks in general to be down at the open today. BASICALLY......we.....investors....have lost the short term, competently. It is now simply irrational and beyond saving.

As a long term investor for 55+ years I have never based my financial decisions and money management on the short term. BUT.....over those many years I could at least....often...understand and recognize the reason that the markets were doing what they do short term. It made sense and was rational

NOW....that is no longer true. The short term markets are now irreversibly LOST.

This is a HUGE change in investor, media, and market behavior.....compared to the history of the markets. This is not a good thing......even if your investing style totally ignores the short term. There is no doubt that this behavior will slowly but surely INFECT the medium term and after that the longer term markets.

I am probably good for the rest of my investing lifetime....probably about 20 years. Beyond that.......anyone younger....well, you are on your own.

 

I say the above from a totally CLINICAL and unemotional view. I dont care about the short term.....but....when I see the level of IRRATIONALITY....that we now are experiencing, it is not a good thing. It means that......UNKNOWN FORCES......are overwhelming the markets every day.

I suspect that a lot of what we are now seeing with this change is simply caused by the constant living on screens and social behavior of people under age 40. There has been a significant change in the thinking and behavior and culture of younger people caused by social media, living on screens, etc, etc, etc.

An interesting social and cultural phenomenon.......happening very quickly by historical norms.

 

While typing the above.....the markets have been coming back from the red. The SP500 is now green and the NASDAQ is now down by only 0.42%.....a definite improvement.

 

Poor APPLE......they are no doubt having a reaction to this little commentary today.

Apple Shares Slump as Analyst Warns of Weaker iPhone 16 Demand

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-shares-slump-analyst-warns-134026411.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

("Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. shares fell Monday after a closely followed analyst warned that demand for the firm’s new iPhone 16 Pro model has been lower than expected.

Pre-order sales, which began Friday for the phone, have tallied an estimated 37 million units, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a report. That’s down almost 13% from last year’s iPhone 15 launch and is a result of weaker-than-anticipated interest in the Pro model of the iPhone 16, says Kuo.

“One of the key factors for the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the major selling point, Apple Intelligence, is not available at launch alongside the iPhone 16 release,” Kuo said in the report.

After a weak start to the year, shares in the company rallied the past four months as investors bet Apple’s AI features would boost sales of its latest line of iPhones. They slumped about 3% to start Monday trading, paring their gain this year to roughly 12%, trailing the 15% advance in the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Analysts were largely underwhelmed after the company’s launch event last week as most of the hardware announcements were leaked beforehand. Looking past the launch event, Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring noted last week that attention will turn to “early iPhone 16 pre-order and lead time data that we will start to collect this Friday.”

The demand weakness for the iPhone 16 is not a good sign, “particularly since we’re heading into the holiday selling season soon,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. The risk of a “meaningful decline” in the shares has “risen in a material way.”

MY COMMENT

A little too early to draw any conclusions in my view. But this is what analysts are paid to do.

Apple has had a tough year. Mostly their own fault based on how they have handled AI and their inability to do proper PR around the AI issue. In the end you have to pin the blame for this on MANAGEMENT. They have done a very poor job of explaining their......"vision"....this year. Basically a very reactive approach rather than a forward looking, proactive, approach.

They are a totally DOMINANT company....but that is lost in the inability of the company to put forward a DOMINANT positive and exciting vision for their future and their products. They need a good visionary marketing person.

 

I just heard that the DOW hit an ALL TIME HIGH at the open today. Unfortunately STILL an irrelevant index compared to the SP500 and the NASDAQ.

 

Looks like a bunch of copy-cats.....are all lining up.

It’s a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/fed-boe-and-boj-its-a-big-week-for-central-bank-rate-decisions.html

 

I would say that the housing market in my area is now in the FALL LULL. I don't see much action happening....but...prices don't seem to be dropping much. If I was a buyer and did not have to buy immediately....I would probably be waiting till about January to look for a home. Mortgage rates will probably be below 6% by than and prices may weaken some over the FALL and early winter.

BUT...of course it is all.....local, local, local.

Mortgage rates fall to lowest level in over 18 months
Mortgage rates declined to their lowest point since February 2023

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-september-12-2024

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest levels in over a year and a half, but elevated rates and high home prices are still keeping would-be buyers and sellers out of the housing market.

Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.20%, down from the 6.35% reading of the past two weeks. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 7.18% a year ago.

"Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percent over the last six weeks and are at their lowest level since February 2023," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

"Rates continue to soften due to incoming economic data that is more sedate," Khater continued. "But despite the improving mortgage rate environment, prospective buyers remain on the sidelines, as they negotiate a combination of high house prices and persistent supply shortages."

Many would-be buyers and sellers are holding out to see if rates fall further. Currently, about 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%, according to a Zillow survey.

The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage declined to 5.27% from 5.47% last week. One year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 6.51%."

MY COMMENT

If the FED goes on a regular course of rate cuts....I expect rates to be in the neighborhood of 5.5% over the next 4-6 months.

We are already solidly in the NORMAL range for mortgages. If you are hoping or waiting for rates below 4.5%.....you are probably delusional.

 

That is about all I am seeing so far today and this week. In reality NOTHING is happening that is new or unexpected. We are seeing market volatility based on.....NOTHING. We are now the Seinfeld markets.....and have been for some time now.

 

I am waiting for my invoice from the Jackson Hole Art Auction to arrive some time today or tomorrow. Once I see the final figure......which will include my bid, buyers premium, taxes, and shipping/crating.....I will finalize my finances for the purchase.

I have a pretty good idea of where the number will end up since I know the sales tax rate (Texas) and buyers premium (20%) in advance and take those items into account as part of my top bid calculation. But until I see the final exact figure there is no reason to start moving money around.

For those that are interested....in this sort of major auction there is a buyers premium and a sellers premium. Usually the buyers premium is about 20% in most auctions. In some cases it can be as high as 25% to 28%. So if you bid $5000 on an item.....the amount you would actually pay is $6000 with a 20% buyers premium. This is how the auction company makes money.

When a seller puts an item into an auction there is a sellers premium. it is also often in the 20% range. So if I put an item into an auction and it sells for $5000 the amount that I would actually get is $4000. There is more leeway in the sellers premium to negotiate the fee. If you a re a good customer or have a sought after item, or there are competing auctions that are available to you, etc, etc, you can often negotiate the sellers premium down to about 15% to 10%. In some cases you might even be able to avoid the buyers premium completely...it is much more negotiable.

 

Since the markets are choosing to be BORING.....today. I will talk about the money side of art auctions.

Probably the largest Western and Wildlife auction in the world is the Coeur D'Alene Art Auction. And.....NO....it is not held in Coeur D'alene, Idaho. It started out there......but......got so big that the airports in the area could not handle all the private jets trying to fly to the auction. So it is now held every year in Reno, NV.

http://www.my-west.com/art-auctions/2011/7/14/the-coeur-dalene-art-auction-in-reno-yup-reno.html

"Founded in 1984, the Coeur d’Alene Art Auction held in Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho became a highly anticipated annual event. The auction specialized in deceased artists of the West and it turned out to be a recipe for success. Over the next fifteen years, well-heeled collectors of Western Art from all over the world flocked to Coeur d'Alene to participate in an event that is conducted with the lightening quick pace of a cattle auction. Yipps, yapps and yeehaas are barked out as the spotters move the art at a staggering one-piece-per-minute pace.

In 1999, the Coeur d’Alene Art Auction moved to Reno Nevada, because, as the Wall Street Journal reported “... 42 private jets tried to fly in, and [the airport] had to divert some [planes] to Spokane because there wasn’t room.” It was time to move to bigger venue with more parking spaces."

So......about the money involved in this sort of business......last year.....2024 the auction realized $21MILLION in sales in their SINGLE big auction of the year. So if you multiply that by the buyers premium of 20%......(I cant remember if their premium is 20% but probably)....they are bringing in about .......$4.2MILLION. Of course...that is GROSS and they have big expenses for advertising, staff, facilities, etc, etc, etc. AND....that does not include sellers premiums of 10-20% on most items. So they are bringing in a GROSS of about $6MILLION to $8MILLION.

This stuff is BIG TIME BUSINESS with huge money involved. Of course.....we are small-time bit players.

When it comes to Impressionistic art we mostly deal with Texas auction houses, and Heritage, Sotheby's, Bonham's, etc, etc, etc. These big National and International auction houses bring in HUGE money.

 

I guess I should have stayed away. My first market day back and I end up with a good loss. five of nine stocks in the green today....but they could not contain the loss that I had in NVDA, COST, AMZN, and AAPL. I lost out to the SP500 today by 1.04%.

A totally irrational day in the markets considering that the first FED rate cut is a sure thing for Wednesday.

MOVING ON.

 

The close today. A record close for the DOW.

Apple pulls down Nasdaq, while Dow hits record close with Fed rate cut on the horizon

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...th-fed-rate-cut-on-the-horizon-133109395.html

A confirmation that there was NOTHING driving the markets today.

 

As to the coming FED cuts:

Fed set to enter new era with first rate cut in 4 years Wednesday. But what comes next?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...-wednesday-but-what-comes-next-080000479.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"When the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, officials are expected to mark the end of an era as they cut interest rates for the first time in four years and chart a course for lower rates over the next two years.

“This is a big meeting,” said former Kansas City Fed president Esther George. “It’s one that’s been foreshadowed since late last year. It’s long been expected.”

The central bank is expected to lower rates by a quarter percentage point to a new range of 5.0%-5.25% from its 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday when their policy meeting concludes. The actions will officially mark the termination of the most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s.

Investors' bets on how deeply the Fed will cut rates for the first time have been fluctuating widely. As of early Monday morning, traders were pricing in an almost 60% chance of a reduction of 50 basis points, versus 40% for 25 basis points. The odds were split 50-50 on Friday, compared with an 85% backing for the smaller cut a week or so ago.

The Fed is set to cut rates roughly six weeks before the presidential election, something Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump and other Republicans have said the central bank should refrain from until after the election.

The rate cut will mark the first in a series of cuts, as the central bank's new era of easy money is expected to last through 2025 and 2026. That shift will ripple through the US economy by making it cheaper for Americans to borrow what they need to buy houses, cars, and credit card purchases.

Businesses will also have an easier time taking out loans to fund their operations.

Fed officials will release new interest rate projections, known as the "dot plot," for how many rate cuts officials see in the remainder of this year and next.

Luke Tilley, veteran chief economist for Wilmington Trust, expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points and to lay out a path to cut twice more this year, also in 25 basis point increments, followed by cuts next year at six out of the Fed’s eight policy meetings. He added that if the Fed can cut rates by 50 basis points in subsequent meetings without spooking markets, it will.

Tilley believes the Fed is behind the curve when it comes to cutting rates because “there would be no talk of 50 right now if they had just started reducing in July and they were on a slower path.” Still, Tilley said, it doesn’t matter whether the Fed lowers rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points overall this year.

“It’s more the trajectory, how they talk about it and how they frame it because their words count for more than their actions,” Tilley said, referencing markets pricing in future Fed actions.

As for ex-Kansas City Fed chief George, she expects, at a minimum, a rate cut of 25 basis points every meeting for the rest of the year. (There are three, including Wednesday's.)

She estimates the Fed will cut rates by 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points before they may pause and take stock of how the level of rates is relative to how the economy is faring. But the thing she’s really watching for is “this is a committee that will have to develop a narrative around the 50 basis point rate cut idea.”

Meanwhile, Fed governor Chris Waller has said that he’s open-minded about the size and pace of cuts based on the data — and if the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then he will support that. Waller said he was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and he will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.

The story behind the story

Officials are looking to cut rates, having gained confidence inflation is likely heading back down to their 2% target. The latest reading on inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, showed inflation continues to move down slowly, marking the fifth consecutive good inflation report. After fears inflation was stalling in the first quarter, officials had said they needed more than a quarter’s worth of good inflation data to gain confidence inflation was truly falling. Core inflation, based on CPI, rose 3.2% year over year in August and July, compared with 3.3% in June, 3.4% in May, and 3.6% in April.

Inflation expectations are also dropping. The difference in the yield on a 10-year inflation-protected government bond and a standard bond of the same maturity, a measure of expected inflation, is around the lowest since early 2021. Inflation expectations over the next two years are for CPI inflation of just 1.5%, under the Fed’s 2% target.

Job watch

At the same time, the job market is cooling as employment decelerated over the summer, with 118,000 jobs created in June, 89,000 in July, and 142,000 in August — all below the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months.

The weakening has caused Fed officials to turn more attention toward the labor market and away from inflation.

Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in late August that the Fed “will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” He noted that the Fed does not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions" and that the current level of the policy rate gives the Fed “ample room” to lower rates in response to any weakening in the job market.

Fed watchers expect Powell to reiterate many of these messages communicated in Jackson Hole.

Predictions

On Wednesday, Fed officials will also release forecasts for unemployment, inflation, and the economic outlook. Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

George said she sees a couple of scenarios, including one where Powell could set the stage for cutting by larger increments. “He could tell a story around 50,” said George. “He could come out at this meeting and say, 'We'll move more aggressively to make sure we do our part around the labor market.'"

But Wilmer Stith, bond fund manager for Wilmington Trust, said, “I think Powell plays it right down the middle.” Stith added that the Fed is very conscientious of the pain associated with a higher unemployment rate, but also conscientious of the cost of living for the average American.

EY’s chief economist Gregory Daco also agreed that "gradualism" will prevail at the meeting but said that there may be a reference to larger rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

Are recession fears still looming? There was concern at the July jobs report that the economy had entered recession, but a rebound in the August jobs tally allayed concerns.

Wilmington Trust’s Tilley expects the job market to continue expanding.

“We do not think the labor market is rolling over into a recession. That said, it is the biggest concern,” he said.

Tilley still believes the soft landing is in place, but said, “The economy is slowing and is vulnerable to a shock.”

And it wouldn’t necessarily take a big disturbance. Tilley's examples include a big oil shock that could hurt consumer spending or a plunge in the stock market that could cause businesses to pull back on hiring. He also said some policies of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — like tariffs across the board or tax hikes — could end up hitting the consumer next year."

MY COMMENT

At this point NO ONE knows what the FED is going to do. BUT....we have a very clear REALITY that they will cut either 0.25% or 0.50%. if we can avoid all the FEAR MONGERING....either one will be just fine.

It will be an intelligence test for the markets how they react on Thursday. I dont put it past the IDIOCY of the recent markets to drop on Thursday.

 

So much for the benefits of remote work.

Amazon tells employees to return to office five days a week

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/ama...ees-to-return-to-office-five-days-a-week.html

"Jassy wrote in a lengthy missive to staffers that Amazon is making the changes to strengthen its corporate culture and ensure that it remains nimble."

"“We want to operate like the world’s largest startup,” Jassy wrote. “That means having a passion for constantly inventing for customers, strong urgency (for most big opportunities, it’s a race!), high ownership, fast decision-making, scrappiness and frugality, deeply-connected collaboration (you need to be joined at the hip with your teammates when inventing and solving hard problems), and a shared commitment to each other.”"

MY COMMENT

Good for them.......a great business decision.

 

We, the shareholders, thank you for supporting APPLE Zukodany.

I am also still using an iPhone 11....with no plans to upgrade. It does everything I need.

How is your construction going and where are you in the process? Completion date?

 

I like this little article.

What Will The Fed Do?

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-what-will-the-fed-do/?src=news

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It’s Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they’ll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to produce their Summary of Economic Projections, which based on its past accuracy probably shouldn’t be capitalized. These estimates of future growth, inflation, and unemployment are intended, as best I can tell, to prove that economists were invented to make palm readers look good. I’m sure the seers (economists) at the Fed have some really intricate, complex models to help them with this exercise but it always looks to me like they just took the averages of the recent economic data and put future dates on it. So, let me save you some time and tell you, in advance, what they’ll say in the SEP. They will predict that real GDP will grow around 2% for the next three years or so, which is right about average since 2010. They will predict that inflation will fall steadily back to 2%, because…well because that’s their target and of course they’ll hit it, the only question being when. In the June SEP, they thought that would take until 2026 which only seems like a long time if you have to, you know, buy things. They will predict that unemployment will be about 4% for the next couple of years because that’s what it’s been lately. Some of their new guesses will be different from their last guesses, by a tenth of a percent or two, and pundits all over will declare it the most significant change since the last time they made a change.

The big question in the investment world last week was whether the Fed would cut the Funds rate by 25 or 50 basis points, as if the only thing standing between us and recession is a 1/4% change in the interbank overnight lending rate, even though no banks are actually borrowing from or lending to other banks overnight. Of course, if they go for 50 it could be a signal from the Fed about how bad things really are because you know they know things we don’t. Yeah, no. The Fed isn’t hiding anything about the economy and even if they had data we don’t – which they don’t – they sure haven’t made very good use of it in the past. That doesn’t mean the market won’t react to whatever the Fed does and whatever Jerome Powell says in the press conference, because it most assuredly will. The market raised expectations for a 50 basis point cut last week and if the Fed goes 25, some people are going to sell stocks because they think it makes a difference. I assure you it doesn’t. If we get a recession sometime soon, it won’t be because the Fed only cut 25 instead of 50.

The SEP and Powell’s remarks will be pored over for clues about future changes in monetary policy and some investors will make big decisions based on their interpretation of the words and figures handed down from on high. Well, for about a day or two anyway, until some other IMPORTANT DATA diverts their attention or they forget about the economy altogether because Artificial Intelligence is going to change the world this week or surely by next month. Or maybe the punditry will move on to the election and how that might change the economy and markets, not just right now but for the next four years or at least the next two until the midterm elections. As Roseanne Rosannadanna famously said, it’s always something.

The stock market rallied roughly 5% last week because the odds of a 50 basis point cut at this Fed meeting rose from 30% to 50%. Why did the odds change? It wasn’t, as far as I could tell, from any economic news but there were some monetary influencers (or as they’re also known, former Fed employees) who said they thought a larger cut was justified. That most of those former Fed employees have been dead wrong about the economy for the last few years didn’t seem to matter because, you know, this time they might have some inside dope. There was also some Twitter post from a WSJ reporter who is supposedly the Fed’s preferred outlet when they want to tell the market something but they’re in a blackout period and can’t say anything themselves. He’s known as the Fed whisperer but my guess is that he gets better access because he wrote a book about how the heroic Fed saved us from economic doom during COVID. Flattery will get you everywhere in DC.

All of this speculation about the Fed’s next move is ridiculous, a waste of time for long-term investors. There are a million things that influence the future course of the economy, the change in short-term interest rates being only one. The rate of change of economic growth and/or inflation can and is influenced by monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy, but the economy also changes independent of those things. You cannot disaggregate all the discreet influences over nominal and real economic growth. You can’t quantify the impact on the economy of a quarter or half percent change in short-term interest rates or changes in demographics or new technology developments or the make up of Congress. Economists can’t even agree on what caused past changes in the economy much less ones that haven’t happened yet.

The economic recovery from the COVID recession – I am hesitant to even call it a recession lest anyone confuse it with any of the other 7 we’ve had over the last 60 years – has been odd to say the least. A huge fiscal response, zero interest rates, QE, tangled supply chains, an inflation spike like nothing seen since the 1970s, the lowest mortgage rates ever recorded, huge cash infusions to households and corporations and more have combined to make this economy completely unmoored from the past. The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators, which worked to predict recession for decades, have stopped working. The LEI signaled recession starting in 2022 and continued to do so until about 4 months ago just about the time everyone started fretting in earnest, again, about the onset of recession. The 10/2 yield curve has recently turned positive after spending a record amount of time in negative territory and there is still no recession in sight.

And even though it is a unique period, so are all the other expansions and contractions I’ve experienced in over 30 years of investing. Some of these “surefire” economic indicators were probably nothing of the sort; we don’t have nearly enough data on, say, yield curve inversions to say for sure. The LEI is made up, mostly, of indicators about the manufacturing part of the economy which isn’t nearly as important to overall economic growth today as it was 20, 30 or 50 years ago. Or maybe the LEI isn’t working because of the uneven recovery during COVID, where goods consumption soared in the early part when everyone was stuck at home and the services part has been booming the last two years due to pent up demand that was unleashed after the introduction of vaccines. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another shift back toward goods and away from services as interest rates come back down. The aftershocks from COVID may not be over yet.

Simple rules of thumb – like the Sahm Rule or the LEI or the yield curve – are not going to cut it in this economy. Investors need to think more critically about the old ways of doing things. Be skeptical, cynical even, of pronouncements from the Fed or anyone else about the future course of the economy. Pay less attention to the Fed and the other economic soothsayers and more attention to markets. Trust the wisdom of crowds over the wisdom of the 12 people on the FOMC. And just spend more time thinking, about how things have changed and how they haven’t. The economy may have changed since COVID but markets have not. Markets are driven by emotions and those who act unemotionally can take advantage of that fact. But if you spend your time thinking about things like whether the Fed will cut 25 or 50 basis points this week, you are going to get caught in the same emotional trap as everyone else.

I don’t know when the next recession will arrive and neither does anyone else but we will have one. All I can tell you is that, based on the available data, we are not in recession right now and that won’t be changed by whatever the Fed does this week. "

MY COMMENT

YES....there is no recession......now or in the immediate future. The danger of recession will be more clear when the election is over and we see what government will be in place and how that will impact the markets and the economy.

As to the FED and rate cuts.......yes.....it is all a meaningless media frenzy and is in fact an "emotional trap". All the turmoil over the FEd is based on the assumption that they have any predictive ability or power to actually control the economy.....they dont. It is all......THE EMPERORS NEW CLOTHS.

IGNORE it all and enjoy the CIRCUS.

 

We are seeing the markets trying to do a little PRE-FED rally today. will it hold....I would think so. There is NOTHING negative about the rate cut that is going to happen tomorrow. BUT...it is just the start of a long process. No need to get too excited.

 

OMG.....a few days ago the headline writers and media were trying to fear-monger the LARGER 0.50% rate cut. It did not get much traction. So........now.....lets try this for clicks:

A larger Fed cut wouldn't spark worry — but a smaller one might

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-la...maller-one-might-morning-brief-100002484.html

UNBELIEVABLE.