A little mixed market so far today....the DOW is red and the SP500 and NASDAQ are green. Seems like we are following the typical.....early in the day.....stock action that we have been seeing lately. I see NOTHING in the way of the POSITIVE BIAS again today. There is literally NO NEWS. Yes....we have a bit of economic news this week....but nothing is going to change the current rate cut bias of the FED. AND....no....there is not going to be a recession. I am looking for another good close by the end of the day today.
At this point a little over an hour into the market day....I am showing a nice gain. Thank you NVDA. I have five stocks up and four down. AND....it is kind of the flip side of yesterday.....some of the UP stocks yesterday are down today and some of my down stocks yesterday are up today. I really like how my current portfolio mix is performing as a whole.
I had a very good show on Monday evening. It was at a good regional venue. I got to be a "special guest" at a show with one of the best regional groups in my musical niche. I am currently doing shows at the rate of about 50-60 per year. Truly a blessing that I am still able to do this with no limits at age 75. I have lost a lot of musical friends and partners over the past 25 years.
Lots of speculation....already....on the amount of the next FED rate cut. The next cut will likely be in November after the election. I am currently seeing a lot of media speculation and financial insiders pushing the idea of another 0.50% rate cut in November. Following the Fed’s bold rate cut, what could its next move be? https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts "J.P. Morgan Research expects the Fed to cut rates by another 50 bp at its next meeting in early November." MY COMMENT I hope the FED holds firm and simply starts the long term process of 0.25% cuts over the rest of this year and next year. There is no need to go crazy and do another larger cut. The best course is to simply......slowly and surely.....cut rates on a regular schedule that allows the FED to evaluate how the cuts are being digested by the economy and by the markets. The FED needs to be very clear in laying out their rate cut process and schedule. This will be important for the economy and the markets. There is no need to allow rampant speculation every month regarding where we are heading with rates. It will just result in speculative economic turmoil. I note a number of articles today quoting some expert or Wall Street person predicting the larger cut for November. it is all PR and in my view these are "PUSH" articles attempting to "push" the big rate cut view out there.
I am doing really well today...especially compared to the general markets. Five of nine stocks up with about an hour left in the day. I am being carried today by.....NVDA, COST, MSFT, CMG, and PLTR.
Probably the story of the day. Nvidia stock edges up as industry report predicts 'unprecedented levels' of investment in AI data centers https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-investment-in-ai-data-centers-172648847.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia stock (NVDA) rose as much as 3% on Wednesday after an industry report projected "unprecedented" levels of investments in artificial intelligence, a bullish sign for the AI chipmaker. Consulting firm Bain's annual technology report published on Wednesday projects that companies will need to make "unprecedented levels of investment" in technology infrastructure to stay on top of the artificial intelligence boom. “If large data centers currently cost between $1 billion and $4 billion, costs for data centers five years from now could be between $10 billion and $25 billion,” the report said. The firm's research also states data center operators and hardware suppliers will enjoy a short-term windfall as companies and governments splurge on computing capacity. "Nvidia, for example, projected $10 billion in revenue from governments’ sovereign AI investments in 2024, up from zero last year," the report said. Over the past few months, Wall Street has been searching for clues about how long massive infrastructure spending will last and what the return on investments for AI chip buyers will look like. On Wednesday, Nvidia stock extended prior session gains after CEO Jansen Huang appeared to have finished selling shares for the time being. Over the past few months, Huang cashed in on roughly $713 million worth of shares as part of a plan to sell 6 million shares by March 2025 — a goal he reached earlier than expected. Despite his stock sale, Huang continues to hold his position as the company's biggest shareholder. Nvidia shares are up roughly 20% since Sept. 6. The stock has gained more than 150% year to date. MY COMMENT WELL.......DUH. This is totally obvious. what I cant understand is why more people are not piling into this stock. I also see it a really SILLY that the stock has been in the red for the past month. Welcome to the modern markets of the 2020's.
The SLOW FADE that we have been seeing all day today continues. Lets see if it escalates into the close or if we get a closing bump up. I have not looked at my account since about 20 minutes ago.....I hope I am able to hold onto my good gains till the close.
What a beautiful day in the markets today for me. I ended with a very good gain for the day....with five stocks in the green.....NVDA, COST, CMG, MSFT, and PLTR. I also beat the SP500 today by 1.02%. I am on a good roll against the SP500 this week.
BIG TIME....futures today as we near the open. I dont put much confidence into futures.....but it is nice to see. We....."MIGHT".....be in for one of those explosive gain days that ONLY fully invested investors get to enjoy. You have to be in the markets to capture all the gains....and....as usual....that is why I am fully invested all the time.
An We're off! Looks like the doom and gloom has temporarily subsided in the chip world and some of us get to regain some ground from the steep selloffs. Holding for the long term through the thick and thin is how you win. When it coming to dating and stocks, NEVER CHASE. Patience is king.
Be careful out there boys and girls.....scams are rampant. Even very intelligent and sophisticated people are separated from their hard earned money. Stay Safe Out There https://humbledollar.com/2024/09/stay-safe-out-there/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "SOME YEARS AGO, an elderly neighbor came to our door, asking for a favor. She was looking for packing tape because she’d sold her television and needed to ship it. She went on to say that the buyer, who she’d found on eBay, was in Nigeria. It was, of course, an obvious scam. But for whatever reason, she couldn’t see it. Today, scams like this are better known and easier to recognize. But what makes online fraud such a problem is that the crooks are always developing new tricks. Consider the latest incarnation: text messages which purport to be from Fidelity Investments. One reads: “Your investment account is locked due to unauthorized activity. Resolve before your account is suspended.” These messages look reasonably authentic, but they include a fraudulent link designed to steal users’ Fidelity login credentials. Recently, several people have forwarded me copies of messages like this, asking if they’re real. It can be difficult to know, especially because they include the Fidelity logo. How can you protect yourself from bad actors? For starters, employ all technical means available. Use a password manager to generate very long passwords. Turn on two-factor authentication, ideally using an authenticator app rather than text messages. For sites that offer passkeys—an advance over traditional usernames and passwords—I favor using this option. Depending on your bank, there may be further tools available to monitor for anything unusual. You can set up text alerts to notify you when funds are transferred out of your account or when a particularly large purchase is made with your debit or credit card. To guard against a type of fraud known as check washing, some banks allow you to preview checks online before they’re paid. Technology isn’t infallible, though, which is why I recommend other steps to toughen your defenses: To further guard against check washing, be sure to use a gel pen when writing checks. These are easy to find, and their ink is more difficult to tamper with. Don’t feel compelled to respond to inbound communications, whether it’s an email or text message. If a communication asks you for financial information—or even asks you to click on a link—don’t do it. If you aren’t sure whether the communication is authentic, call the institution using a number you have on file or look up the number on the company’s website. Even with this step, you’ll want to be careful. Fraudsters often set up sites that look just like real banks’ websites, and they even employ what’s known as search engine optimization to make their fake websites appear in search results. My advice: If you want to go to a bank’s website, enter the address directly—chase.com, for example—rather than searching for “Chase Bank.” Recognize that voices and even video can be mimicked today. So can caller ID. No matter how authentic folks might sound on the other end of the phone, be cautious. If they’re asking questions, don’t hesitate to hang up. If a communication purports to be from an institution you don’t deal with, feel free to ignore it. Also ignore communications that seem innocuous but are odd or out of the blue. A scheme known as “pig butchering” typically starts with a simple text message. One I received recently read, “I noticed your number in my contacts. Can you remind me of your name?” They’re attempting to draw people into conversation and, ultimately, into a financial trap. The best response is to simply delete the message. Depending on the messaging app you use, there may also be a link to mark the message as spam. That will help slow the spread of similar messages. Don’t panic or act in haste. Fake communications often employ urgency, warning that an account will be locked, for example. If an incoming message is asking you to move fast, instead slow down. Ask yourself whether the request really makes sense. Be wary of anything that appears implausible. Some years ago, I saw a woman send money to an address in Jamaica because she’d received a call letting her know she’d won a raffle. To claim the prize, she would just need to send a few thousand dollars in advance to cover “administrative expenses.” In this case, it made no sense because the woman hadn’t even entered a raffle—and certainly not one in Jamaica. Don’t use a debit card to make purchases. Instead, use a credit card. That way, if your card number is compromised, it won’t affect your bank account. Examine links before clicking. In the texts pretending to be from Fidelity, the links were a clear tip-off. None included “fidelity.com.” In emails, fraudulent links aren’t as easy to spot. But if you hover your mouse over a link, you should see in the lower-left corner of your screen the web address to which the link is pointing. If that address doesn’t look right in any way, don’t click. Because of past data breaches, it’s easy for crooks to acquire personal information. They might have your bank account number or even your Social Security number, and they can use that information to make themselves appear more legitimate. Don’t let them fool you. Worried that you may have already given up information to a bad actor? Depending on the situation, I suggest these steps: Change your account passwords, order a new credit or debit card, keep a close eye on transactions in your accounts, and put a fraud alert or a freeze on your credit report. To place a fraud alert, you need only contact one of the three major credit bureaus, Equifax, Experian or TransUnion. They’re then required to notify the other two. But to place a credit freeze, you’ll need to contact all three separately." MY COMMENT I am hit with this stuff nearly daily in my email accounts and once in a while by text. I NEVER click on any of them or the links they include. In addition and......MOST IMPORTANTLY.....I have had my credit FROZEN since 2007 when someone captured my checking account number when I was on tour and created fake checks which they used to run up charges of over $4000 at Victoria's Secret. (Try explaining that one to your wife or husband) In the above case the checks were nothing like my real checks, my signature was a totally obvious fake......AND....amazingly, all the check numbers were ones that had been previously used. Yet the bank accepted them all even in the face of OBVIOUS FRAUD. It was a good lesson to me that banks are totally incompetent and a live person NEVER looks at your checks. I recovered all the money from my bank. Be safe....and...protect all that hard earned money.
I do own a little HOARD of silver and gold. It sits in my siblings big safe and does nothing. Lumps of metal. BUT lately gold and silver have been on fire. Silver is now over $32 per Oz and gold is pushing toward $2700 per Oz I WILL take the gains.....,but I still dont consider this "stuff" an investment since it sits and does not compound. Silver Surges to the Highest Since 2012 as Precious Metals Rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-surges-highest-since-2012-112530682.html MY COMMENT I continue to add a single American Gold Buffalo coin to my hoard each year in January. I like this particular coin because it is US government issued and is basically 100% gold.
RECESSION......what recession. GDP: US economy grows at 3% annualized pace in second quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-...ualized-pace-in-second-quarter-123353258.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US economy grew at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, a faster pace than Wall Street had expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's third estimate of second quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged from the second estimate which had shown 3% annualized growth. Economists had estimated the reading to show annualized growth of 2.9%. The third estimate for second quarter GDP confirms that economic growth was higher than the 1.4% annualized growth seen in the first quarter. "The revisions only strengthen our conviction that the US economy will continue to expand at a decent pace over the coming year, which suggests labor market conditions are unlikely to deteriorate markedly from here," Oxford Economics deputy chief economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. Separately, data from the US Labor Department released Thursday showed 218,000 unemployment claims were filed in the week ending Sept. 21, below Wall Street's expectations for 223,000. This marked the lowest level of weekly claims since the middle of May. The data releases come a week after the Federal Reserve cut interest by half a percentage point in an effort to preserve what Fed Chair Powell described as an economy in "good shape." "[The economy is] growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down," Powell said on Sept. 18 after the rate cut decision. "The labor market is in a strong place. We want to keep it there. That's what we're doing [by cutting interest rates]." Thursday's reading on GDP is considered backward looking given it's an update to economic growth for a quarter that ended in June. But projections show the economy has been growing at a steady pace in the third quarter, which ends in September. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker currently projects the US economy is pacing for annualized growth of 2.9%. Meanwhile the economics team at Goldman Sachs is currently projecting the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the third quarter. MY COMMENT Good news for stocks and funds. Hopefully a vague indicator of good earnings to come over the next few quarters.
The (mildly) BOOMING markets today. S&P 500 rises to record on solid economic data, tech stock gains https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Thursday, regaining their footing after a mixed session, following the release of upbeat U.S. economic data. The S&P 500climbed 0.7%, hitting a fresh record, led higher by gains in Micron Technology. The Nasdaq Composite popped 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 250 points, or 0.6%. Micron traded 18% higher after issuing strong guidance for the current quarter. Results for Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter also topped analysts’ estimates. Fellow semiconductor-linked stocks Applied Materials and Lam Research both rose 6% in sympathy. A series of economic data supported a solid economy, easing fears that perhaps the Federal Reserve is cutting rates aggressively because of the economy slowing. Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, pointing to a steady labor market. Durable goods orders for August were unchanged versus economists’ expectations for a decline. And the final reading of second-quarter GDP was unrevised at a strong 3%. “If there’s a problem in the labor market, it’s not showing up in the weekly jobless claims data. As is always the case, though, the monthly jobs report will play a bigger role in defining market sentiment,” aid Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing for E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. “But until there’s evidence to the contrary, numbers like this will likely keep soft-landing hopes alive and well.” Both the S&P 500 and the Dow fell Wednesday, taking a breather from their recent strong runs. Both indexes had hit fresh all-time highs earlier in the day. Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, pinned some of Wednesday’s volatility on the upcoming presidential election." MY COMMENT GEE.....amazing that all the media fear-mongering over jobs and the economy and the FED is turning out to be.....TOTAL BS. Imagine that....who could have ever known. I say TRUST THE MARKETS and the POWER of long term investing.
About the only.....short term..... negative that I can see today is the yield on the Ten Year Treasury which is up to about 3.8%. BUT....this is simply a short term...perhaps a week or two....issue. Yields are going to continue to drop as the FED will continue to cut rates.
I have a nice....medium...gain today. The big open has moderated as we approach mid morning. I think I have five of nine stocks UP right now....but the gains are not huge in those stocks. The best of the bunch is of course....NVDA.
I have seen a few articles lately about investors "mulling over" portfolio changes based on the election outcome. Or...investors changing their strategy over the election results. Will I be changing anything following the election......NO. I have a definite person that I want to see win the election and I have a definite party that I want to win the House and the Senate.......but.....regardless of who wins what....I WILL CHANGE NOTHING. Why would I? Under my investment strategy i try to target what I consider the GREATEST companies in the world. That will not change. I will rely on the management of those companies to simply deal with whatever environment they have to live in. One of the LAST things in the world that I allow to dictate my investment strategy is......politics.
