I did hear earlier in the day....on TV.... that NVDA is down today because of Blackwell once again being doubted. BS....BS. I see NOTHING in the news at all on this issue that is negative. In fact all the news that I see is that Blackwell will ship in December as planned. Here is an example: "We weren't aware of the specific timelines until now, as analyst Tim Culpan has revealed what's going on behind the scenes. Mass production, from module to system assembly, will be in full swing with significant shipments by early December, sources tell me. Both Ariel boards (1x Grace, 1x Blackwell) and Bianca boards (1x Grace, 2x Blackwell) will be ready". https://wccftech.com/nvidia-blackwell-gb200-ai-servers-ready-mass-deployment-december/ MY COMMENT As I said I see ZERO sources....credible or otherwise.....in the news with negative information today. TRADER BS happening.
Ok....I closed in the RED today with my nine stocks. I also got beat by the SP500 by 1.09% today. At least we are now done with the last full week of September....we move onto October next week and the final three months of the year. We will also close out the third quarter on Monday of next week and will soon be in the thick of third quarter earnings.
Here is how things went this week. DOW year to date +12.19% DOW five days +0.60% SP500 year to date +20.99% WP500 five days +0.46% NASDAQ 100 year to date +20.91% NASDAQ 100 five days +0.79% NASDAQ year to date +22.71% NASDAQ five days +0.69% RUSSELL year to date +10.57% RUSSELL five days (-0.24%) So.....ALL the big averages ended the week with a gain....and....all are set up very nicely to end the year in three months with gains WELL above historic averages. Seeing the markets today i was afraid that I would end the week with a LOSS. But....thinking about the week I decided that was unlikely. AND....I did end the week with a net gain for the week. As of the close today my year to date for my entire account is.....+52.77%. Last Friday I was at....+51.44%. So, I guess I cant really complain about my loss today.
WELL....with my year to date gain over 50% and with all the big averages over 20%....except for the DOW (see above)....the market gods are going to have a hard time knocking us down much this year with only three months to go. I could see a nasty correction hitting us for 15% or so....but we would still end the year with hefty gains for the year. AND....I believe that the odds of a 15% correction before year end are......slight.....with the FED in rate cut mode. HERE is how the markets did this week: Dow jumps 100 points to close at a record, major averages extend rally to third week https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Exactly! But change is the only constant, so one change is that the quote you mentioned below has been amended to add: "... or in recess."
Here is what we are told is going to be important to the markets in the week to come. A critical labor report meets a stock market at record highs: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-cr...d-highs-what-to-know-this-week-113035514.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks drifted higher over the past week, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) notching several record closes as investors digested more signs of cooling inflation amid resilient economic growth data. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were up about 0.7%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped nearly 1%. In the week ahead, the September jobs report is expected to provide further clues on how quickly the labor market is cooling. Updates on job openings, activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, and consumer confidence are also on the calendar. On a company level, a deliveries update from Tesla (TSLA) and quarterly results from Nike (NKE) will be in focus. All eyes on labor The most recent reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases continue to cool toward the Fed's 2% goal, putting further focus on the Fed's other mandate: maximum employment. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Sept. 18 that the labor market is currently in "solid condition" and the central bank is cutting interest rates, in part, to keep it that way. Still, there's been a clear slowdown in the labor market. The unemployment rate has steadily crept up in 2024 and sits at 4.2%, near its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, job gains have slowed, with the US economy recording two of its lowest monthly job additions of 2024. And job openings in July were at their lowest level since January 2021. The pressing question as the release of the October jobs report on Friday morning approaches is just how quickly this slowdown in the labor market is taking place. Consensus expectations on Wall Street point to more signs of a gradual cooling rather than a rapid slowdown. The September jobs report is expected to show 130,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In August, the US economy added 142,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. Entering the labor market data dump, the most recent print on weekly jobless claims showed weekly unemployment claims were at a four-month low for the week ending Sept. 21. Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients Friday that the consistently low layoff numbers suggest that "September employment report should be decent." "The labor market is the biggest risk to our outlook," Bhave wrote. "Layoffs are the key indicator to watch: as long as they stay low, the base case will likely remain a soft landing." Best foot forward? Retail giant Nike is expected to report its fiscal first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday. Wall Street is expecting the sports apparel brand to report quarterly revenue of $11.65 billion with earnings per share of $0.52. Both metrics would represent year-over-year declines from the same quarter a year ago as the company battles to reinvigorate revenue growth. The release will mark Nike's first earnings report since it announced Elliott Hill, a former Nike executive who retired in 2020, will replace John Donahoe as CEO on Oct. 14. The announcement came as Nike shares had fallen about 25% on the year. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez wrote in a note to clients that the implications of Hill's return and the turnaround strategy at Nike will be the key focus of the earnings call. "We believe [management] likely lowers full-year 2025 guidance on weakening China macro and brand reset in that [market], as well as more conservative assumptions tied to the planned innovation-driven sales acceleration in the second half of 2025," Lejuez wrote. Tesla talk Tesla stock has been quietly rallying, with shares rising more than 24% over the past month and officially turning back positive for the year. While that move has come from little news, the fundamental story for Tesla will once again be in focus during the week ahead. The electric vehicle maker is expected to announce its third quarter delivery numbers. Analysts expect Tesla delivered about 462,000 cars in the quarter, up from 443,956 in the prior quarter and a 6% increase from the sales seen in the same quarter a year ago. The company's highly anticipated robotaxi reveal is slated for Oct. 10. NasdaqGS - Nasdaq Real Time Price • USD Investors look for 'growth' Stocks have largely chugged higher since the Federal Reserve opted for a larger interest rate cut at its most recent meeting. Investors appear to have accepted the Fed was cutting the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to preserve a currently healthy economy rather than to provide aid to a flailing one. Citihead of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser told Yahoo Finance this scenario where the Fed isn't cutting because the economy needs it is "hugely bullish" for equities. "Everything is about the growth side of the economy and everything is about the consumer," Kaiser said. "Any data that suggests consumer spending is holding in and you're not seeing the weakness that people are worried about and that the Fed is worried about, I think that's all going to be positive for equity markets." Subsequently, a bad jobs report on Friday could have the opposite impact on stocks. "If it turns out that they started cutting because they're legitimately concerned about weakness in the labor market, rate cuts aren't going to be enough to help equities in that case and you're going to trade lower," Kaiser said. "So the why [the Fed is cutting] matters here. And payrolls is going to help answer that." Kaiser's comments call back to a chart Ritholtz Wealth Management's chief market strategist Callie Cox shared in the summer edition of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Cox pointed out that the S&P 500 has had varying reaction rate cuts throughout the years. Usually, whether or not the economy enters a recession is a key driver of those returns. As Cox's work shows, only once has the S&P 500 been lower a year after rate cuts start when the economy skirts recession."" MY COMMENT Not much going on next week in reality that is of long term concern. Now that the FED is off the table as an issue the media is all focused on minor economic generalities that are insignificant to most companies. I dont see much above that is of concern to specific companies and their EARNINGS expectations. So...in other words....another simply normal week.....with the usual hand wringing that is irrelevant to long term investors.
I am very surprised that there is nothing above regarding the.....DREADED.....port strike. Now there is a topic that you can really fear-monger.
For Tiresmoke. Why Gen Zers are falling in love with car collecting https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gen-zers-are-falling-in-love-with-car-collecting-140430130.html
I see that this thread will be......SIX YEARS OLD....on October 2, next week. That means that it is now a TRUE daily journey in the life of a LONG TERM INVESTOR. At six years old.....it now covers enough of a time span to be considered long term in the investing world. During that time we have seen normal markets, a pandemic shut down of the USA economy, an extremely nasty BEAR MARKET, a roaring BULL MARKET, every economic situation you can imagine, the advent of AI and NVDA, etc, etc, etc. And in spite of it all...... anyone that has been a fully invested investor over that time in the SP500 or in RATIONAL and REASONABLE big cap companies....has done extremely well. CONGRATULATIONS to us all for having the GUTS to be long term investors and for securing the financial future for ourselves and our family. With the content that is now in this thread......and considering all the crazy "stuff" over the last six years......and even if all posting on this thread stopped tomorrow....it would be a classic LONG TERM INVESTING example and resource for investors of all levels of experience. That was my goal in starting this thread six years ago. I dont think there is much more that can be said about long term investing or the power of compounding your money that is not already in this thread. BUT......there is always something left to learn....it is a life long process. Again, CONGRATULATIONS to all of us that have participated. AND....an invitation to ANYONE....regardless of experience or investing style or opinions.....to feel free to post and participate.
Yeah if you got in 6 years ago long term some good ones you would be rolling never too late to pick someone long now
Watching the markets since the open today. They have been swinging from mixed to red. The FED rate cut.....yes a one day rally and than forgotten. Another pretty normal week this week for stocks. Not much really going on except for the.....port strike that likely to happen. The key issue on the strike will not be that it happens but how long it lasts. We are now at the last day of the third quarter....earnings will start soon. I am looking forward to them and the distraction that they will give us from the day to day IDIOCY.
GEE.....you mean it is not a good thing to try to market time or invest according to superstition? Stocks break September slump as Q3 ends https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stocks-break-september-slump-q3-133359682.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As the US stock market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) enters the final trading day of the month, it has defied the typical September trend of weakness. In fact, markets are on track for one of the strongest Septembers in over a decade as they conclude the third quarter. The next big challenge will be the upcoming jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday. Morning Brief co-hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills break down the details." MY COMMENT Seems pretty obvious to me as a long term investor......DO NOT give in to market superstition.
I see it as a minor issue this week....but....as usual the media will hype it to the max.....since they have nothing else this week. A critical labor report meets a stock market at record highs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-cr...d-highs-what-to-know-this-week-113035514.html You know....if you went back and reviewed all the media coverage of the past 50-100 weeks.....I believe you would see that the VAST MAJORITY of events and happenings that they HYPE each week turn out to either be a market positive or at worst a non-event in the markets. Especially long term. Economic reports simply do NOT have a long term impact on the markets and rarely even have much of a short term impact. As to all the other....."stuff"....that they hype and fear-monger every day......do you remember any of it now? Did any of it have much impact on the markets over the last nine months? The media is about the same as the....ECONOMISTS....and all their expectations and predictions.....virtually always wrong.
That is about it.....the above is the extent of what is going on today. Basically....NOTHING. As a result we are seeing a very mild red open today and ZERO ENERGY in the markets. We are drifting.
I have not looked at my actual account....but I know that right now I am siting with five of nine stock in the RED. I also know that I am basically at about the same loss as the SP500 at this moment for the young day. My GREEN stocks right now are.....HD, COST, AAPL, and GOOGL. It is a lazy day in the markets.....as nothing is happening....and stocks are simply drifting in the wind.
Since there is nothing going on today I think I will give up for now and go get my car inspection done. It expires today so once I get the inspection I will go to my HEB (an iconic Texas grocery store) and get my registration renewed. Perhaps something will be going on in the markets when I get back. Unfortunately I dont have a lot of hope for the markets today. I suspect we are just going to linger and end pretty much in the red when it comes to my stocks. Just a.....DULL AND BORING...day.
Fun little article on car collecting but we will see if those teenagers put their money where their dreams are once they get out into the real world. Just like day trading, car collecting isn't very profitable for most. There are always the flippers who either make the money through volume or dealers by financing. Cars take up alot of space, require climate control for anything considered 'investment grade', insurance, gas, fluid changes. They literally break while sitting. There are very few cars that will average 8% return on average yearly. I will agree they hold their value better than mostly any other hobby. I enjoy my cars and put miles on them whenever I get a free chance. I think most of my cars I could sell for more than I paid for them but nothing like the S&P500 would have returned over the long run. But since you can't do burnouts with an investment account and it's ok to enjoy life a little I guess it's ok to have some old cars and say they are part of your 'portfolio'. That's my take on car collecting as an investment. Car's as a motivator is a totally different situation and where I see the most value in them. Wanting that Ferrari or special car motivates many young people to work hard, do better in school, start businesses, start investing and other very positive things.
Sounds like my art “investment’. I have definitely made a gain…..but not near what stocks would have done. At least art doesn’t deteriorate as it sits like cars. it is a very good thing to have a hobby.
