YES it is.... The stock market is off to its best start to a year since 1997 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-off-best-start-161221121.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A massive port strike is threatening America’s delicate supply chains. The Federal Reserve is rushing to prevent unemployment from spiking. And the race for the White House is coming down to the wire. Yet investors remain unrelentingly bullish, bidding the US stock market further into uncharted territory. The S&P 500 has scored 43 record highs so far in 2024. The latest milestone on Monday left the benchmark index up 20.8% on the year. That’s the strongest start to a year since 1997, according to FactSet, when the US economy was surging during the dotcom boom under President Bill Clinton. This year’s boom has been fueled by growing hopes of a soft landing for the US economy. Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said the “very impressive” market performance has been driven by “continued resilience” in the US economy and enthusiasm over Fed rate cuts. That’s not to say there aren’t concerns out there, too. Wall Street is starting the notoriously weak month of October on a negative note. US stocks retreated Tuesday after the White House warned that Iran is preparing to launch an imminent ballistic missile attack on Iran. That warning sent oil prices climbing sharply. “The Iran report is the thing scaring everyone right now,” said Michael Block, co-founder and chief operating officer at AgentSmyth. Tech stocks like Nvidia tumbled as a powerful typhoon barrels towards Taiwan and threatens to disrupt the flow of chips from the island. Still, the mood on Wall Street has improved dramatically from just two months ago. In early August, a bad jobs report sparked recession fears and markets plunged as two popular trades suddenly blew up. But markets rapidly recovered from that growth scare, quickly making new highs. The CNN Fear & Greed Index, which measures the emotions driving markets, edged into “extreme greed” territory on Monday. That is a major improvement from “extreme fear” in August. The big concern right now, according to Block, is a fear of missing out, or FOMO. “There is this fear of missing a rally. And that is driving a lot of activity,” he said. Recession predictions have proven wrong, time and again. Despite concerns that American consumers are tapped out from the high cost of living and high borrowing costs, consumer spending has proven to be surprisingly resilient. And that is key because consumer spending is the biggest driver of the US economy. The Fed has made clear that officials mean business about protecting the job market. The jumbo-sized rate cut that the central bank announced last month was driven by a desire to prevent unemployment from rising any further. “People keep saying another shoe is going to drop on consumption — but that hasn’t played out. US consumption remains strong,” Block said." MY COMMENT The obvious first........"best start to a year"....WTF......we are three quarters done with the year. This is WAY BEYOND a start to a year. AND....yes I remember very well how the media jumped on the recession fear-mongering in August. As the article says we certainly did recover from that....."growth Scare"......scare being the operative word with NOTHING to back it up. In spite of IRAN and the port strike and even the election....we are on track for a BIG TIME CLOSE at the end of this year. YES....there is still plenty of time for some bumps along the way. BUT......we are in great shape for the final quarter of the year.
With the markets mixed and FLAT so far today.....I will look elsewhere for content that is interesting. Silver Still Isn’t a Store of Value Do yourself a favor and tune down the hype. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/silver-still-isnt-a-store-of-value (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Once upon a time, there was a shiny precious metal everyone said was even better than gold. Unlike that yellow lump, they preached, this glittery wonder wasn’t just a store of value but had industrial uses and actual, rational sources of demand. Cyclical properties! This assured its future as a wonderful investment, they said. What was this allegedly perfect security? Silver, of course! And for a few weeks in 2011, it rode this hype train, booming to a record high of $48.48 that April before busting spectacularly. It never got back. We bring this up because the silver apologists are at it again, hyping the shimmery grey metal for the same reasons and extrapolating its recent returns forward. Don’t fall for it. Silver is just a commodity, nothing special. We don’t think it has much use in a long-term portfolio. It is easy to see why the silver-tongued bulls are so alluring. Who wouldn’t want something that is both a stable store of value and a beneficiary of economic cyclicality! But this pitch is your first clue to tread cautiously. It is a precious metal version of claiming a security can provide both capital preservation and growth—which is basically the financial version of world peace and calorie-free cake. A security that truly preserves capital doesn’t fall in value, ever, which means it has no volatility, ever—and no growth. A security that grows will always be subject to volatility, which entails the risk of short-term declines. Investing is about balancing these tradeoffs—long-term growth and potential short-term negativity—not eliminating all downside. If silver has cyclical traits, then—by definition—it goes down as well as up. Something that goes down is not a store of value. Silver surely isn’t. Exhibit 1 shows its history since the end of 2007. Soak it in. Exhibit 1: Silver Is Most Definitely Not a “Store of Value” Source: FactSet, as of 9/27/2024. Silver spot price (New York), 12/31/2007 – 9/27/2024. Among the things you may have noticed: It lost over -50% of its value from roughly the time of Bear Stearns’ bankruptcy that March through late November, the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ implosion and the US government’s dismantling of Wall Street as we knew it. During this chunk of the global financial crisis, it bled worse than global stocks. No store of value there. Silver’s spike in late 2010 and early 2011 was a fun ride, we suppose, but the wild crash that followed sure wasn’t. Nor was its languishing throughout most of history’s longest bull market in the 2010s. And even with its recent run, it is nowhere close to 2011’s high. Anyone who bought it during that frenzy is still waiting for it to return to the value they thought they stored in it 13 years ago. Which also guts the claims about silver having excellent cyclical properties. Something that is really, truly cyclical booms when the global economy is hot and busts when it is not. If silver actually rode economic trends, it would not have that huge flattish stretch in the 2010s, a time of rock-solid global growth. In that span, things that are actually cyclical—like stocks!—did swell. Silver? Well … did something that rhymes with swell. This tells us what silver actually is: a commodity. A pretty one that goes great with some of our skin tones. But just a commodity. Commodities don’t follow economic cycles. They follow commodity cycles, which go something like this: Demand grows faster than supply. Prices rise. Producers think about opening new mines but move slowly because up-front costs are expensive. Shortage brews. Prices keep rising. High prices finally tip the scales, producers start constructing new mines. New mines take a while, so prices keep rising, prompting more investment. Shortage reaches fever pitch. Prices peak. New mines open. Supply rises. Prices ease. New mines keep opening. Prices keep falling. And opening. And falling. Supply glut forms. Investment falls. Eventually supply and demand balance. Start cycle anew. This tells the story of metals in the 2010s, to varying degrees. Exhibit 2 shows a smattering during the 2009 – 2020 bull market. All boomed early on, amid shortages. Then they busted as new supply came online. Some started recovering later in the decade. Some didn’t. The specifics of each metal varied, but the trend was broad. And it was all tied to commodity supply and demand, not the global economic cycle. The latter affected demand, but supply swamped it. Exhibit 2: Select Metals Prices in History’s Longest Stock Bull Market Source: FactSet, as of 9/27/2024. Spot prices, 3/9/2009 – 2/19/2020. Doesn’t silver look right at home there, being just a commodity, booming and busting with its metal friends? We sure think so. That is where it belongs, dear readers, in the just-a-commodity bucket, with prices prone to all the vagaries of that bucket. For long-term growth, we think stocks stand out, even now, as they are at all-time highs. Fear of heights can make people interpret “record high” as “peak.” But only one record high in each bull market turns out to be the actual peak. The rest, and there are usually dozens, are just arbitrary mile markers on the way to it. They aren’t predictive. Stocks’ level and speed alone won’t tell you which record high is the actual peak. Lastly, we would be remiss not to point out that if you are after an investment that rides global economic trends, that is stocks! Not one-to-one, as political drivers matter and stocks are a leading, not coincident, indicator. But economic growth helps drive corporate earnings, and stocks are a share in those earnings. If you expect a thriving, growing economy, then stocks are a share in that. Much more than any metal, precious or otherwise. MY COMMENT I could not agree more. Silver is simply a commodity. I happen to own about 1000 oz of silver that we accumulated over the years buying USA Silver Eagle coins. They sit in my siblings BIG SAFE and do nothing. They pay NO dividends.....they pay NO capital gains....there is nothing produced to reinvest....there is NO compounding. At times they go up in value and at time they go down in value. YES....they are a family hoard......perhaps a bit of a hedge in the event of an extreme emergency.....but nothing else. I guess at best I think of them as an emergency fund. I certainly do not think of them as an investment...even though they have value.
A very short and sweet little article. BUT....it says it all. Where Is the Slowdown? https://www.apolloacademy.com/where-is-the-slowdown-2/ "GDP for the second quarter came in at 3.0% (see chart below), the Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate for the third quarter currently stands at 3.1%, and jobless claims are at 218,000. It is difficult to argue that the US economy is slowing down. Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist" MY COMMENT That is it.....the entire article. Pretty much says it all without any irrelevant words or content.
Talk about the basis for LONG TERM INVESTING. The stock market's astonishing returns https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/stock-market-returns (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A year ago, the 30-year return for the S&P 500 was 834%, which is to say it rose just over ninefold between the end of Q3 1993 and the end of Q3 2023. Today, the index's 30-year return is 1,135% — it's risen more than twelvefold in the past 30 years, and currently stands at an all-time high. Why it matters: The stock market has been on a tear of late — up 34% over the past year and up 20% year to date. That's the best stock-market performance in the first three quarters since 1997, and it's boosted total returns over pretty much any time horizon. By the numbers: On an annualized basis, the S&P 500 is up 8.8% per year over 30 years, 11.3% over 10 years, and 28.7% over the past three quarters. The bottom line: No matter what their holding period, passive investors should be extremely happy with their performance to date." MY COMMENT Another very short little article.....but it points out the impact of long term investing and compounding. Nearly 9% on the SP500 over the past 30 years. Sounds good to me.....but...you have to be actually invested to get those returns.
Some misc headlines: Microsoft to invest 4.3 billion euros in Italy for AI infrastructure and cloud capacity https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-invest-4-3-billion-144504292.html As a MSFT and NVDA shareholder sounds like money in the bank for me. Good news going forward. Why Nike is still in big trouble: Market Minute https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-nike-still-big-trouble-112807262.html DUH.....this company is a poster child for BAD MANAGEMENT. They have pissed off half their customers....with their smug arrogance and foray into social issues. They basically made the company captive to the China market....which screwed them. They screwed over their long time retail partners....thinking they did not need them. They brought in an outside CEO that was a disaster. Etc, etc, etc.
Some interesting numbers here. Are You A 'Rich' Retiree? Here's The Net Worth And Income You Need To Be In The Top 10% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rich-retiree-heres-net-worth-193214164.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Retirement looks different for everyone, but what does it take to be in the top 10% of wealthy retirees? It's not about flashy yachts or endless vacations. The top tier is defined by solid financial planning, diverse income streams and a clear understanding of stretching wealth beyond Social Security checks. If you're curious about where you stand, here's how to tell if you're among the top retirees of 2024. The Top 10% Net Worth: What's the Magic Number? To crack the top 10% of retirees, your net worth needs to hit around $1.9 million, according to Federal Reserve Board survey data. For those aged 65-74, that figure jumps to about $2.63 million; for retirees 75 and older, it climbs even higher to $2.86 million. This sharply contrasts the average retiree, whose net worth is much lower – closer to $280,000 on average. If you've crossed that $2 million line, you're likely looking at a very different retirement experience from the average. Top Retiree Earnings – Without a Salary Here's where things get interesting. Wealthy retirees aren't just sitting on a pile of money. They've built multiple streams of income that continue to flow well into retirement. While Social Security might pay a max of $58,476 annually (if you're lucky), top retirees are pulling in much more – without even breaking a sweat. Their income comes from investments, rental properties, pensions and sometimes businesses they've built or invested in. The average retiree earns around $75,000 annually, but the top 10% bring in significantly more. For those aged 65 to 69, the top 10% have an annual income of $200,000. They earn income from a combination of dividends, rental properties and strategic portfolios, which allows them to live comfortably without draining their principal savings. Portfolio Strategy: What Do Top Retirees Do Differently? Wealthy retirees approach investing with a long-term mindset. It's not about playing it safe; it's about balance. A typical portfolio for someone in the top 10% might hold around 60% stocks, 35% bonds and just 5% cash or cash-like investments. They're still looking for growth even in retirement, rather than shifting entirely to conservative investments. This keeps their wealth growing while also providing income. They may dial down the risk as they age, but you won't see these retirees parking all their money in low-yield savings accounts. How Location Plays Into Wealth Perception One factor that often goes overlooked in retirement is where you live. Retirees in certain cities will see their income stretch further. While retirees in high-income areas may bring in around $90,000 a year, someone in a lower-cost city might live just as well with less. For top 10% retirees, maintaining a high quality of life often comes from flexibility in where they choose to retire. Retiring in the top 10% isn't just about luck – it results from smart planning, diverse income sources and a solid investment strategy. Understanding what it takes can help you aim higher if you’re not there yet." MY COMMENT We are top 10% in terms of net worth and right at the bottom of top 10%....$200,000....in terms of income. I have seen first hand that is really is about creating INCOME STREAMS. My sibling for example.....I have created a great mix of income streams for her........income from holding two family mortgages....a deferred comp lifetime payout......a government pension....Social Security......and....three income annuities. In addition there is her big stock and fund account which I manage...set up the same way as my Portfolio Model on here. She makes way more in retirement than the government job that she held.....ever paid during her work life. BUT...she also pays a BIG BOAT LOAD of taxes in retirement. Fortunately we also have a few income streams.....six income annuities that are our main income....Social Security.....and a bit of music money. Of course we also generate dividends and capital gains in our stock account which we reinvest. We are in the position to keep 100% of our investment money invested in stocks and funds for the long term to create GROWTH. Retirement is a function of having a long term PLAN over your lifetime. You must be proactive.....leaving it to random chance is not a good thing. YOU can do it.....it is all basically common sense and a lifetime of exercising financial...... FOCUS.
Oh yes.....there is a stock market going on today. S&P 500 is little changed as shaky October start continues on escalating Middle East tensions https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 was little changed on Wednesday as the market rally continued stalling amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The broad market index added 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 57 points, or 0.1%. Nike slid more than 6% after the sneaker giant pulled full-year guidance ahead of its CEO change. Tesla dropped more than 5% after reporting delivery numbers, though the technology sector was buoyed by a rise in Nvidia. That action follows a losing session after Iran’s firing of ballistic missiles on Israel dented risk appetite and investor enthusiasm for the new trading period. Investors are readying for more uncertainty as Israel begins a ground operation into Lebanon and tensions escalated with Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s jump following the news out of the Middle East. But stocks took a leg up in Wednesday’s late morning trading as oil gains cooled from highs seen earlier in the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, remained above 19, underscoring the heightened concern among traders. Energy stocks outperformed again on Wednesday, putting the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) on track for its fourth straight winning day. “We’re really seeing the market have a little bit of a hiccup with this recent spike in geopolitical tensions,” said Lisa Erickson, head of public markets due diligence at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “While investors typically don’t worry too much about those events until there’s a clear economic impact, we’re just seeing some nervousness.” ADP data released Wednesday showed better-than-expected private payroll growth in September. That comes ahead of Friday’s closely followed nonfarm payroll report, which could play a major role in the market’s direction and the Federal Reserve’s next rate move as its cutting cycle begins." MY COMMENT As usual the short term action is focused on events and news content that is totally irrelevant to long term investment results. BUT.....as I have been typing....we have NOW moved to a GREEN market in all the big averages. As an added bonus the Ten Year Treasury is.....UP....but off the recent highs.
I am currently making back some of the money that I lost yesterday. I have six of nine stocks in the GREEN. The three that are RED are....GOOGL, MSFT, and CMG. It looks like the Middle East and the Port Strike are panning out to be 1-2 day issues.....so far. I expect that the Middle East will not be much of an issue going forward although what is happening there will last for weeks if not months. As to the Port Strike......there is potential for a pretty significant disruption of imports and a bit of an impact to the economy. We will see how long it takes for the employers to CAVE.
I am seeing kind of a FROZEN real estate market here locally in my little area of 4200 homes. We have 72 active listings. I am only seeing a handful of pending homes right now. BUT...sellers are siting tight and not lowering prices much. It is a standoff as sellers refuse to budge and buyers are waiting for lower mortgage rates compliments of the FED cuts. In my little immediate neighborhood of less than 100 homes.....we now have five listings.....three over $2MILLION and 2 just below $1.5MILLION. The highest priced homes in our little area of 4200 homes......$14MILLION and $9MILLION. The lowest home in the area.....$534,000. Amazingly prices are slightly UP on average....but...I dont see much action in any price range of our market.
I ended today with a nice medium size gain. Six stocks GREEN and three.....MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL....red. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.57%. Good...back on track.
As a shareholder...I like it. Costco adds platinum to its growing line of precious metal offerings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-adds-platinum-growing-line-152956372.html
I prefer the safety and world wide DOMINANCE of the greatest USA companies as an investor. That is my lifetime focus....BIG CAP dominant companies. Looks like I am not alone. US Dominance Continues https://www.apolloacademy.com/us-dominance-continues/ "In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap. Today it is almost 50%, see chart below. "
I like this little article. Investors Need To Follow The Golden Mean https://tonyisola.com/2024/09/investors-need-to-follow-the-golden-mean/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Pro Tip: When in doubt, avoid the extremes. Seeking the middle ground is essential to avoiding worst-case outcomes. Life is more like playing a game of tennis than a box of chocolates. Unforced errors often determine the thin line between success and failure. The amount of time you spend between the extremes clarifies your character. Without good character, nothing else matters. The Greek philosopher Aristotle spoke about this at great length. The qualities of character can be arranged in Triads. The first and last qualities will be extremes and vices; the middle quality is a virtue or excellence. So between cowardice and rashness is courage; between stinginess and extravagance is liberality; between sloth and greed is ambition; between humility and pride is modesty; between secrecy and loquacity, honesty; between moroseness and buffoonery, good humor; between quarrelsomeness and flattery, friendship. Investors can learn much from temperance. Transferring Aristotle’s ancient wisdom into actionable moderate investing behavior would benefit all investors. Some examples include: Between Fear and Greed is Nervous Patience: It’s not easy holding the line when the market takes an inevitable turn south. Being uncomfortable for a short period is far superior to bailing out or ratcheting up risk at the worst possible moments. Between Overspending and Miserliness Are Mindful Purchases: There’s nothing wrong with spending your hard-earned money. Just make sure you make purchases that give you lasting joy. The sweet spot between impulse purchases and lagging regrets about what could’ve been is the ultimate goal. Between Reckless Speculation and Risk Aversion is The Balanced Portfolio: Risk tolerance tests aren’t reliable indicators of your level to absorb market mayhem. Investors don’t know their capacity to handle market meltdowns until one happens. There’s nothing wrong with allocating half your portfolio to stocks and the remainder to high-quality Government Bonds. This portfolio is insurance against the high probability your risk tolerance score is inaccurate. Between Pricey Elite Universities and not attending College are Quality State Schools: Spending 100k on college costs is a high price for bragging rights about your kids. Many state universities offer similar outcomes to schools that cost three to four times as much. Moderate tuition sans student debt is available for those who like driving in the middle lane of life. Between Market Timing and Portfolio Neglect is Annual Rebalancing: Trying to time the market is chasing fool’s gold. On the other hand, ignoring your portfolio for decades isn’t a wise option either. Bull and Bear markets throw allocations violently out of whack. Rebalancing your investments once a year keeps things tidy and relieves the temptation to act on your short-term impulses. Like a healthy garden, the fertile Golden Mean is the best soil for your investments to take root and prosper. Seeking perfection is impossible and a colossal waste of valuable time. Not sabotaging yourself and being good enough is an underrated strategy in a world where the loudest voices win." MY COMMENT Some good observations above. The main thing for any investor is to be true to yourself and your personality. there is nothing wrong with being more conservative in your investing behavior. I really like this quote: "Not sabotaging yourself and being good enough is an underrated strategy in a world where the loudest voices win."
OK....NVDA fear-mongers. Just SHUT UP. Demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell is 'insane' - Jensen Huang https://finance.yahoo.com/news/demand-nvidias-blackwell-insane-jensen-221702225.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Investing.com — NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares added 1% after hours Wednesday after CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its Blackwell product is "insane." "Blackwell is in full production, Blackwell is as planned, and demand for Blackwell is insane," Huang said on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime Wednesday afternoon. "Everyone wants the most, and everyone wants to be first."..... MY COMMENT The above portion of this little article is the KEY INFORMATION. BELIEVE IT. Ignore the rumor-mongers.
MORE good news for NVDA shareholders. OpenAI closes funding at $157 billion valuation, as Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank join round https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/ope...on-valuation-microsoft-nvidia-join-round.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points OpenAI closed its long-awaited funding round, announcing that it raised $6.6 billion at a $157 billion post-money valuation. Led by Thrive Capital, the round also had participation from Microsoft and Nvidia, CNBC confirmed. Earlier this year, OpenAI was valued at a reported $80 billion, up from $29 billion in 2023. OpenAI has closed its long-awaited funding round at a valuation of $157 billion, including the $6.6 billion the company raised from an extensive roster of investment firms and big tech companies. While OpenAI didn’t name the investors in Wednesday’s press release, a person with knowledge of the matter said the round was led by Thrive Capital and included participation from existing backer Microsoft as well as chipmaker Nvidia, SoftBank and others. Thrive planned to invest $1 billion in the round, CNBC previously reported. OpenAI’s rapid ascent, which began with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, has been the biggest story in the tech industry over the last couple years, bringing the concept of generative artificial intelligence into the mainstream and paving the way for tens of billions of dollars of investments in AI infrastructure. “The new funding will allow us to double down on our leadership in frontier AI research, increase compute capacity, and continue building tools that help people solve hard problems,” OpenAI wrote in a blog post Wednesday. “We look forward to continuing our partnership with OpenAI,” a Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC in a statement. OpenAI generated $300 million in revenue last month, up 1,700% since the beginning of last year, CNBC confirmed last week, following reporting by The New York Times. The company expects to bring in $11.6 billion in sales next year, up from $3.7 billion in 2024, according to a person close to OpenAI who asked not to be named because the financials are confidential. But all that revenue is extremely costly, as OpenAI has to ramp up purchases of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) to train and run its large language models. The company expects to lose about $5 billion this year, the person said. Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI and is a key partner as the software giant bolsters its Azure cloud business. Earlier this year, OpenAI was valued at a reported $80 billion, up from $29 billion in 2023. Following the viral growth of ChatGPT, momentum has continued with new products for businesses and an expansion into AI-generated photos and videos. OpenAI now has 250 million weekly active users on ChatGPT, CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC in a statement. There are also 11 million ChatGPT Plus subscribers and 1 million paying business users on ChatGPT, a person close to the company said. “AI is already personalizing learning, accelerating healthcare breakthroughs, and driving productivity,” Friar said in the statement. “And this is just the start.” OpenAI is experiencing plenty of growing pains along the way, including the loss of key executives, a trend that continued through last week. Last Wednesday, OpenAI Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati, who briefly served as interim CEO, said she would be leaving after 6½ years. Shortly after that, research chief Bob McGrew and Barret Zoph, a research vice president, said they were leaving the company. In an interview the next day at Italian Tech Week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “I think this will be hopefully a great transition for everyone involved and I hope OpenAI will be stronger for it, as we are for all of our transitions.” Also on Thursday, OpenAI held an all-hands meeting, following the board’s decision to consider restructuring the company to a for-profit business, according to a separate person with knowledge of the matter. Altman said the departures were not related to the potential restructuring, contrary to some media reports. Should the change occur, the nonprofit segment would remain as a separate entity, the source said. At Thursday’s meeting, Altman denied reports of plans for him to receive a “giant equity stake” in the company, calling that information “just not true,” according to a person who was in attendance. OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor told CNBC in a statement last week that while the board has talked about the matter, no specific figures are on the table. “The board has had discussions about whether it would be beneficial to the company and our mission to have Sam be compensated with equity, but no specific figures have been discussed nor have any decisions been made,” Taylor said. The latest funding round also included participation from Khosla Ventures, Altimeter Capital, Fidelity, MGX and Tiger Global, sources told CNBC." MY COMMENT The above is good news for MSFT and NVDA....on many levels. It will be fun to see how this all plays out over the next 2-5 years. I would guess that OpenAI will become a public.....for-profit..... company. BUT....we are very early in the AI revolution. Many companies....perhaps even OpenAI.....will simply fade away over the next five years.....as the business sorts out.
This is about it for news today. We are in a MIXED market open today. There is a thin cloud of.....a bit of..... doubt hanging over the market. I see no reason for it. In fact I believe we are in the strongest position for stock and fund investors over the past FOUR years. Part of the problem is the markets STRUGGLE to adapt to the constant 24/7 media world where every day beings some new HYPED fear-mongered issue. In addition the markets struggle with the younger demographic trend for short term trading and speculation. AI program trading of news and news headlines is also a constant short term hindrance to the markets. WHATEVER.....as actual "investors" all we can do is live with the short term conditions. Here are the excuses for the market today: Dow, S&P 500 slip with focus on jobs report, wait for Mideast moves https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-report-wait-for-mideast-moves-133008665.html
We are on COLA watch for the Social Security cost of living increase for 2025. the information should be released in about 8-10 days. "Expected 2025 COLA Increase Amount Many circulating rumours claim a 2.6% increase in COLA 2025. To provide guaranteed income to the beneficiaries under social security, it is essential to consider COLA Adjustments. The Senior Citizens League has also estimated an increase of 2.65% or between 2.5% and 3% in 2025." https://www.leadingdigitalgovs.org/2025-cola-increase-amount-eligibility-payment-dates/ I suspect that....unless the data is manipulated.....we will see a increase of about 2.5% to 2.65% for 2025.
So far today is a TWO STOCK day for me. Seven stocks are RED and two.....NVDA and PLTR....are GREEN. I would say that the "probability" is for more of my stocks to turn green before the close....even though we are seeing some market weakness right now with ALL the big averages now in the RED. PATIENCE...is the operative word for the next three months to year end.
HERE is what I believe is the OVERWHELMING TRUTH regarding the current position of NVDA. BUT....of course....I am a shareholder in all my accounts that I manage....so I may be biased. Nvidia stock jumps after CEO Jensen Huang says 'demand for Blackwell is insane' https://markets.businessinsider.com...en-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia stock rose as much as 5% on Thursday after CEO Jensen Huang noted strong demand for its Blackwell GPU. Huang confirmed Blackwell chips are in full production despite earlier redesign delays. Nvidia aims to enhance GPU performance annually, impacting customer revenue and costs. Nvidia stock jumped as much as 5% on Thursday following comments from CEO Jensen Huang about the strong demand the company is experiencing for its next-generation Blackwell GPU chips. The stock pared some gains and was up about 3% to trade at $122.47 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Shares of Nvidia have been on a tear, rising 149% year-to-date, making it the second-best-performing S&P 500 stock this year. "Demand for Blackwell is insane," Huang said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday after the market close. Huang addressed the state of production for the Blackwell chip, as reports of small redesigns to the chip earlier this year led to slight delays in its rollout to customers. "Blackwell is in full production, Blackwell is as planned," Huang said. "Everybody wants to have the most and everybody wants to be first." Those comments align with the comments of some of Nvidia's biggest customers, including Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison. Earlier this month, Ellison said he and Elon Musk "begged" for more GPU chips during a dinner with Huang. Ellison said they told Huang, "Please take our money. We need you to take more of our money." In the CNBC interview on Wednesday, Huang also reiterated that the company is on track to deliver a faster and more efficient GPU chip to customers every year. "If we can increase the performance as we've done with Hopper to Blackwell by two to three times each year, we're effectively increasing the revenues or the throughput of our customers on these infrastructures by a couple times each year, or you could think about it as decreasing costs every two or three years," Huang said. He added: "We're on a path to do that and everything's on track." Huang emphasized in the interview that Nvidia has its fingerprints all over various layers of the computing stack, from GPU chips to software to networking components. "This is a brand new way of doing computing, and we're dedicated to build the entire stack and reinvent every layer of the technology stack so that... every company in the world can benefit from this revolutionary new technology we call AI," Huang said." MY COMMENT I find it TOTALLY RIDICULOUS that this company is not more sought after than it is. It is the most prominent, dominant, significant single company in the world right now. What they are doing makes what MSFT did in the 1990 to 2000 decade look like a piker. My opinion is that in spite of the MASSIVE gains we have seen so far.....it is NOTHING compared to the potential that this company is currently showing for the medium to long term future. Of course......PLEASE.....this is just my personal opinion. This thread is NOT investment advice to anyone else. Please do your own research and make an independent decision on any company mentioned in this thread. ANY investing plan must be RATIONAL...REALISTIC....and REASONABLE. These terms have very different meaning for EVERY investor. What is right for me may not be right for you.
The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir (Junior position) Chipotle Mexican Grill (Junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
