The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I'm having a very good Thursday so far. NVDA is up nicely which is my main driver. I still watch AMD with my lowly 5 shares and it just reaffirms my selfoff into NVDA earlier in the year.

    "In my view the upper 25% or so of the population is driving much of the economy right now. Stocks are UP BIG and people that have high incomes are feeling good and are showing it with spending.

    In my day to day contact with......"regular people"....there is a HUGE amount of concern out there right now about prices and trying to get by."


    In my conversations with friends and customers I am seeing this same thing. It is a distinct separation without any real middle ground. Those with good paying jobs and/or investments are trucking along just fine and those with median to low incomes are getting hammered. Fast food for 2 people is nearly $30! It wasn't that long ago it was under $15! I can relate with W on his dining habits as I always try to hit up the private owned small time 1 of 1 type places. I do believe that some places have priced themselves out of business though. I'm not sure if the large price increases were too much too late or just too much in general. It would be interesting to see how they validated the additional price or if they just thought that's what they could get away with. When I get a 1.50 upcharge for a slice of processed (probably off brand Kraft) cheese to me it's about the general principal of getting taken advantage of. Just because I can afford to pay for something doesn't mean I'm going to fold. I don't mind cooking at home so that's what I usually do but with the toddler and being out and about more I have had more of a need to find some quick and easy takeout.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Very good post TireSmoke. I think what you are I are seeing is the norm all across the economy.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SO....I just looked at my actual account. It is UP nicely and doing very well today. I have five stocks in the GREEN right now....led by NVDA, of course, up by 3.28% today. The other green stocks are.....AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, and COST. A KILLER DAY.....in the neighborhood.

    AND......I recently took my last account that I manage......my siblings old IRA account.....and moved it into my Portfolio Model. Up to now it was just siting 100% in the SP500. It had now grown enough that I felt it was time to add some stocks. The portfolio is....right now.....basically my Portfolio Model.

    Actual numbers......53%.....in the SP500........47% in my USUAL nine stocks. All the stocks are about equal in weight except for NVDA which I put in as a triple weight. In this portfolio I weighted CMG and PLTR as full weight positions.

    I made the move into the individual stocks in that account on 8-12-24.......the result so far.....+17.05%......in only two months. Of course those two months include all of the DREADED month of September and the second most DREADED month of October.

    I went all in all at once on all of the above trades for the individual stocks as is my habit, and in line with the academic research.

    A very good start to the stocks in this account......but....of course it is only the SHORT TERM.

    What will matter is the long term for this account. My sibling is in the same situation that I am.......all stock market money is fully invested for life. She does not need to use or get any income from her stock markets money....since she is set with other sources of income for the rest of her life.
     
    #21763 WXYZ, Oct 17, 2024
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2024
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You know....when I look back in hindsight....we are ALL significantly impacted over our entire lives by how and where we grew up. It is part of our psychological BIAS.

    i grew up on ARMY bases. It allowed me to live in Germany and see all of Europe from 1958 to 1961. We moved around, but, due to my dads job in the military.....Medical Service Corps (not a Dr)......we got to live on one extremely large medical base....off and on..... for 12 of my first 18 years and go to the same school for all of High School.

    Everyone I knew lived on Post. Everyone knew what everyone's dad made since military pay scales were public and routinely published in the Army times newspaper. We all went to the same Army medical clinics and hospital and ALL shopped in the PX and commissary. We went to the Post movie theater and the Post sports arena and the Post Library.

    Basically EVERYTHING we did from school, to the swimming pool, to sports, to shopping, to Boy Scouts, to church, was on Post. Once in a while we would go to the Mess Hall for Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner.....when dad worked for the day in the Mess Hall so his men......... the young, unmarried troops, that were probably away from home and family for the first time in their life.... could be off for the "special" day.

    My dad was an Officer.....after his service in WWII......a Captain in the Korean war running Ambulance Companies in Korea. After that, he got his Masters Degree in Hospital Administration through the Army and worked in the military as a hospital Executive Officer in Viet Nam during the war, and Inspector General at an Army hospital after.

    As kids going to school on base we were ALL a very cohesive group. None of us worried about the rank of our fathers....we were all simply Army kids....our fathers were all Army officers, or higher ranking Sargent's, or Warrant Officers..

    In fact our schools on base were INTEGRATED racially, way before the public schools. Our small High School on base had about 100 kids in each class and about 98% of the graduates went to college.

    We tended to be OVERACHIEVERS......perhaps because being Army Kids we were outsiders in the cities where we lived and grew up in the Army. In fact....a good percentage of the kids that I grew up with, later became officers in the Army themselves after college.

    We were grouped by rank in terms of where we lived. Sargent's lived in single family homes in one area. Captains and Majors lived in one big housing area....mostly in duplexes. Lt Col and Col lived in large, nice, two story single family homes in another area. The Generals lived in BIG historic homes in another area.

    No one was rich....no one owned a business......no one owned a house. Everyone's dad was basically working toward their Military Retirement. My first contact with civilian kids and living in the civilian world was when I went to college....but I continued to live on base in the summers.

    Of course I did have a small taste of Civilian life through my Grandparents on one side that lived in isolated, dirt poor, Appalachia......and....my other well-to-do Grandparents, that lived in a big house in a medium size town in New Mexico.

    My mom was probably one of the ONLY people of anyone I knew as a kid...... that was a stock and fund investor starting in the 1950's

    The above is the life long basis for much of my thinking and personality and drive to be successful. It is the GUTS of my investing BIAS.
     
    #21764 WXYZ, Oct 17, 2024
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2024
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  5. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    I didn't know that you lived in Europe at that time. Whereabouts in Germany?
    Did you visit any countries in East/Southeast Europe?
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes....we visited West Berlin, and basically ALL of Europe that was open for travel...if Russia allowed it. Some of the Eastern countries were under Russian control and could not be visited, obviously, and it was the peak of the post war cold war.

    When we went to West Berlin....there was a single train that the Russians allowed to cross East Germany to get there and it was guarded by Russian soldiers. We were allowed to take a bus to East Berlin and the city was basically STILL a bombed out shell.....very different from West Berlin.

    It was a very old-school time in Europe. The war had only been over for a little more than ten years and Europe was STILL totally old-school Europe with very little American influence.

    We lived in Heilbronn....near Stuttgart.... and Kaiserslautern in Germany.

    It was very much an eye-opening experience to live and travel extensively over there for those three years. Something very few American adults or children had a chance to do. I am thankful that my parents saw to it that we traveled everywhere possible. To this day it gives me a very different perspective on the world and Europe compared to most people.

    Things were kind of TENSE at that time with the Russians......we had go-bags and evacuation routes and plans for all the American wives and kids. We would go to the West toward the English Channel and all the American Military men would be holding in place or going East to try to slow down the Russians and allow us to get out.

    PLUS.....it was my first introduction to GUMMI BEARS.....way before they could be bought in the USA. How I missed them when we came back to the states. If only I had been old enough to get the import rights for the USA.....sigh. They were a HUGE favorite of all the American kids.
     
    #21766 WXYZ, Oct 17, 2024
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2024
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I hung in there through the afternoon FADE to end up with a small gain today. Five stocks GREEN and four stocks RED. The red.......COST, CMG, HD, and GOOGL. I did beat the SP500 today by 0.28%.

    ANY gain is a good gain.....so we move on to the end of yet another week as we march toward ELECTION DAY and YEAR END.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    To continue with the memories...

    We flew to Germany from New York in 1958. The plane we were on was NOT a jet......it was a big four propeller plane. The flight from New York to Frankfort took about 24 hours. The entire flight was military men, wives and kids.

    I found out later when I was older, that our flight was delayed for a while. My dad was a Captain and randomly happened to be the ranking officer on the plane.

    The army wanted him to sign to be responsible for everyone on the plane and the "equipment".....by "equipment" they meant the....plane itself. He refused to sign to be responsible for a physical.......airplane.

    Eventually we left New York.....flew to Greenland to refuel......then to Ireland to refuel.....and than to Frankfort. We left one day....slept all night on the plane....and than got there the next day.
     
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  9. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    Very interesting experience.
    We spent couple of years working in Frankfurt, but after some time realized that Germany wasn't our cup of tea, so we left.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I missed the open today dealing with...."first-world-problems. My new refrigerator is not working properly. I now have a replacement scheduled for next Tuesday. At least I am UP on my stocks at the moment.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....we see if all day long every day....even with the financial media.

    Combat the doom machine with me

    https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacem...ntent=RH144OP694&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

    "Despite all this negativity, the truth is we're living in the most prosperous, peaceful time in human history.

    Every day since 1990, on average, roughly 130,000 people around the world have been lifted out of extreme poverty. That's headline material for 34 years straight!

    Yet only 1 in 20 Americans know about this incredible trend.

    The media understands fear sells, and they're peddling it like hot cakes. "If it bleeds, it leads," as they say in newsrooms. Anxiety and outrage keep you glued to the screen—and keeps their advertising dollars flowing into their pockets."

    MY COMMENT

    This "stuff" has totally infected the financial and investing media. IGNORE it all.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A very BORING day today for me trying to find and good content. BUT...at least the markets are generally doing well.....at least for me.

    Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 step higher as Netflix jumps after earnings beat

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...flix-jumps-after-earnings-beat-133101327.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks rose on Friday, with tech in the lead as investors welcomed Netflix's (NFLX) across-the-board earnings beat in the wait for the next batch of corporate results.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up roughly 0.6%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added about 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.2% after hitting a fresh record closing high.


    The major stock gauges are all on track for a sixth weekly win in a row after a strong showing by big banks to kick off earnings season.

    Netflix's results late Thursday relieved some worries that Big Tech names might struggle in the third quarter as they did in the last. The streaming giant's profit surged to outstrip Wall Street estimates, while revenue and subscriber growth also came in stronger than expected. Its shares jumped over 10% in morning trading.

    At the same time, a rebound in Chinese stock markets propelled gains in US-listed shares of Alibaba (BABA), JD.com, (JD) and PDD (PDD). The rally came amid revived optimism for more stimulus to help China's economy.

    In commodities, gold (GC=F) prices hit a new record, topping $2,700 an ounce for the first time. Concerns about the Middle East conflict and uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential election prompted a shift to less-risky assets."

    MY COMMENT

    As seen above kind of a no-news day for the markets. Stocks are generally UP but I am not sure the markets are very committed to going up today. I can see another mid to late day FADE happening today. Just seems like a listless no energy day in the markets in spite of being up right now.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I currently have eight of nine stocks in the GREEN. My single RED stock is HD. BUT....in spite of all the green I only have a medium gain so far today.

    I hope the markets can hang in there till the close and not loss all energy and momentum heading into the weekend.
     
  14. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Good afternoon all, I read mostly and haven't posted in a while. I have a question of the amount of stocks in a retirement portfolio? I have a small 9 stock portfolio which I mimic WXYZ's stocks and mind you have did pretty well. I have that retirement portfolio which i referenced that is not doing as well with more monies in it, which has about 30 stocks that are allocated along the 11 sectors. My small folio has outperformed my large retirement folio. Should I rebalance the retirement folio to fewer stock and perhaps just use my 9 stock folio as my guide. Any suggestions or not, I really appreciate this forum. Thanks
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I can not give investment advice....so no specific suggestion.

    BUT.....my general view that I follow in all my accounts that I manage.....is to beware over-diversification. I have found over the years that with the sort of BIG CAP ICONIC stocks that I invest in.....between about 10-15 stocks is my sweet spot.

    I guess one consideration Bigmaix is if this is taxable money and if changing the investment mix will result in capital gains taxes.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A very good day for me since I ended up with a nice MEDIUM level gain today. Eight of nine stocks ended GREEN....the single RED stock was HD. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.25%.

    Moving into the second half of October and relentlessly toward year end.....and.....locking in the gains for the year in the historical record.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is how we ended the week.

    DOW year to date +14.74%
    DOW five days +1.11%

    SP500 year to date +23.65%
    SP500 five days +0.60%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +22.82%
    NASDAQ 100 year to date (-0.27%)

    NASDAQ year to date +25.22%
    NASDAQ five days +0.34%

    RUSSELL year to date +13.09%
    RUSSELL five days +1.91%

    OK....I had another good week. As of the close today my entire account is UP by ......+61.78%. Last Friday I was at year to date.....+59.04%. MOVING ON UP.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.
     
  19. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Thanks for your input, I really appreciate it. That account is a IRA.
     

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