The Long Term Investor

YEAH....well this had nothing to do with the virus or safety. I guess it was probably an attempt to capture email addresses and cell numbers to send out SPAM emails and texts......on the part of Taco Bell. OF COURSE......it is REALLY not spam......since you agree to it when you use their online tools. STILL.....seems pretty STUPID to me......refuse to sell a product to a customer......perhaps a very good customer. Even if it is a "special" product for online orders only.

 

"Try calling an order into your broker. Like in the old days"

Even in the old days........it was sometimes not easy to get a broker to do what you wanted. They would often try to talk you out of whatever you wanted to do and imply that you were stupid. Half the time you got shuffled over to an assistant, that also looked down their nose at you for "bothering" them. This was back in the days of having to deal with the BIG BOY full service brokers. FOR ME.......this all changed as soon as I switched over the Schwab........they were very responsive with their "phone based" brokers.

I had an experience with this "BIG BROKER" crap when I was a business owner. I had a Keough Plan......a type of pre-401K, pre-IRA retirement plan that was used by many small businesses. Under the plan I could put away up to $30,000 per year for myself. I ALSO had to cover all employees at the same percentage contribution. No problem........I was glad to see my many very long term employees get to build up an investment account in the Keough Plan. I would usually make the contribution and than give each employee the number of my REP at Merrill Lynch and have them call and direct where they wanted their money invested........usually a mutual fund. My broker was a VP at Merrill Lynch. This was before I switched to Schwab.

I found out one year from numerous employees that the brokers assistant was treating all my employees like crap........and borderline abusing them....... when they would call about their account investments. I ended up listening in on some of the conversations to verify and than called my VP broker at Merrill and laid it all out there. I found out the next time that I called him that the assistant had been fired. He had checked around with some of his other business clients and EVERYONE hated to deal with that assistant.......she was just abusive.

Part of it was her....but I believe that the majority of the problem was the CULTURE of the BIG BROKERS back than.

 

A new record for the......neighborhood. 3000 homes and 4 actively for sale. CRAZY stuff.......and......an insane sellers market. I do feel like the market has slowed some with October, Thanksgiving, and Christmas approaching and school now started. BUT.....the stats are NOT showing it.....so far.

 

You wonder if you can call Robinhood? APPARENTLY.......no.

"Where Robinhood falls short. ... Customer support: Many brokerage customers understandably expect phone support, and they won't find it here — Robinhood's customer support is almost exclusively done through email. The company does not publish a phone number."

My COMMENT

THIS is one BIG reason that I would NEVER do business with this or any similar company. I get the same FREE services at Schwab.........and.......I can do business by app.......at a branch office........by phone........by email......by text.......etc, etc. I can reach a phone rep 24/7 if necessary to resolve an issue. There is NO WAY I would want to do business with a broker that will not take my phone call. I have NEVER used Robinhood.......but I suspect they DO NOT have anywhere near the level of services available to me at Schwab........ALL OF WHICH.......can be linked and accessed through my one account log-in. Trust services, power of attorney, banking, multiple accounts on one log in, research services, etc, etc, etc.

 

NICE open.....compliments of NIKE. I am ENJOYING a big bump up today as NIKE pushes the markets UP.......hard.

Nike shares soar 13% as online sales jump 82%, retailer sees rebound in China

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/nike-nke-reports-fiscal-q1-2021-earnings-beat.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nike shares soared 13% in extended trading Tuesday as the company reported an 82% increase in online sales and offered up an outlook that calls for demand to grow through the holidays.

The company has used the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to accelerate its digital business, and its women’s apparel division grew nearly 200%. As parents stocked up on back-to-school items, and its business picked back up in key markets like China, Nike said its Jordan brand is looking “stronger than ever.”

The company also offered a fresh outlook for fiscal 2021, expecting sales to be up high single digits to low double digits from a year earlier. The outlook comes at a time when many of its rivals are avoiding financial guidance.

“We know that digital is the new normal. The consumer today is digitally grounded and simply will not revert back,” CEO John Donahoe said during an earnings conference call.

Here’s how the company did compared with what analysts were expecting, based on Refinitiv data:

• Earnings per share: 95 cents vs. 47 cents, expected
• Revenue: $10.59 billion vs. $9.15 billion, expected

For the first quarter ended Aug. 31, net income climbed to $1.52 billion, or 95 cents per share, from $1.37 billion, or 86 cents per share, a year earlier. That was far better than the 47 cents per share analysts were expecting.

Nike’s revenue slipped 0.6% to $10.59 billion from $10.66 billion a year earlier, but topped the $9.15 billion forecast by analysts.

Sales in China rose 6%, it said, while revenue in North America, Nike’s largest market, was down 2%. But North American sales of $4.23 billion were still ahead of analysts’ predictions for $3.39 billion.

Its latest results are a strong reversal for Nike after it experienced a bigger slump last quarter. At the end of June, Nike reported an unexpected loss, as its revenue tumbled 38% year over year, hurt by the temporary closure of stores during the pandemic.

But in the first quarter, Nike said the majority of its stores were back open even though traffic was down from year-ago levels. Like many other retailers, Nike is still limiting the number of people who can come into its stores at once, to try to help curb the spread of the virus. But when people do visit, they’re coming with the intent to buy, and Nike said conversion rates are up.

Meantime, Nike’s inventories totaled $6.7 billion at the end of the latest period, up 15% from a year earlier but down 9% from the prior quarter. The company said it “continued to strategically manage excess inventory resulting from a significant number of door closures and lower wholesale shipments globally.”

The biggest sneaker-maker in the U.S. has been investing in its website, mobile apps and owned stores, as more consumers are steering clear of department stores and shopping malls. It has been opening sprawling flagship locations in major markets as well as smaller-format shops to serve as pick-up hubs for online orders. Its investments are helping fuel its relative strength compared with other retailers that have been hit hard by the pandemic. Dozens, including Brooks Brothers, J.Crew, J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus, have filed for bankruptcy protection this year.

A number of athletic-focused brands and retailers have also reported upbeat results in recent weeks, including Lululemon, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Peloton, as consumers are looking for comfortable clothing and workout gear during the Covid-19 crisis. Nike, and its peers, have benefited from this trend.

The pandemic is clearly accelerating Nike’s digital potential. The company has said its digital sales now make up at least 30% of its total quarterly sales, a threshold Nike had previously aimed to hit by 2023.

“Nike is recovering faster based on accelerating brand momentum and digital growth,” CFO Matt Friend said Tuesday.

Looking to the first half of fiscal 2021, Friend said Nike is expecting revenue to be roughly flat compared with a year earlier. He said demand should pick up in the back-half of the year, as consumers return to buying items at full price, helping Nike meet its full-year expectations.

Nike shares as of Tuesday’s market close are up about 15% year to date. The company has a market cap of $182.5 billion."

MY COMMENT

This company has been a KEY holding for me for a very long time. I will continue to ride their success for as long as possible. HOPEFULLY.........these earnings are a HARBINGER of great things.......for the BIG CAP side of third quarter earnings. We could USE some sort of POSITIVE NEWS at the moment........since.......we have a lot of negative or potentially negative events lined up for the next three months. (NONE of which are really business related)

 

YEAH.......that nice open did not last long at all.

For the PROTECTION of ALL of us on here that own TESLA........I went out and drove their site today. It looks like the vast majority of the grading and dirt removal is done. The site is looking nice and flat. The are driving piers or pilings on one end of the site that tends to be a little wet. I would guess that they will soon be laying out and installing all the concrete drains, pipes, sewers, and other site work etc, etc, etc, to get the site fully developed PRIOR to starting the actual structures.

I know that area very well........there are often a number of bald eagles that nest along the Colorado River and a small lake that borders their site. They are located about 1/2 mile from a major electrical power plant and a sewage processing plant. Their factory will have the Texas Toll Road 130 on one side and the giant power lines from the power plant running along the back side of the factory.

Their total land has got to be at least 1000 to 1500 acres more than they are preparing right now. They will have plenty of room for future development as needed.

 

WELL........only two GOOD things about today.......NIKE and beating the SP500 by .13%. The rest can SUCK AN EGG.

Looking forward to tomorrow. Day by day we are moving forward to BETTER TIMES for investors. It will PROBABLY take a while..........3-8 months.....but we will get there sooner or later.

 

WELL.....a nice surprise today. I was busy all day and did not expect a positive day. A nice day today........a reasonable amount of GREEN in all accounts plus a nice beat of the SP500 by .10%.

I am running around preparing for some stuff that I have to do next week. Going to be in the studio for most of the week so...........I will be out of touch for most of next week. I WILL have the MacBook Pro with me and an iPad........but........will still not be paying much attention to the markets.......especially during the daytime hours.

It WILL be good to get this week over with tomorrow and move FORWARD.

 

THE markets.......continue........to disrespect GREAT earnings. As I see it......that is money in the bank down the road:

Costco clears $4 billion in earnings for first time amid record growth, but the stock is falling

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...d-growth-but-the-stock-is-falling-11600979558

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Costco Wholesale Corp. brought in $4 billion in profit for the first time in a fiscal year, thanks to a big boost from shoppers stocking up during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Costco COST, +0.68% revealed Thursday that net revenue increased 12.5% in its fiscal fourth quarter, the best gain in nearly three years, thanks to same-store sales growing at their fastest pace this millennium. Costco has steadily experienced stronger growth in recent months as the COVID-19 pandemic has continued, as mask-wearing customers became more comfortable with in-store shopping yet still wanted to stock up on supplies for the long-term.

“As people are spending less on travel, air and hotel and dining out, they seem to have redirected at least some of those dollars to categories like lawn and garden, furniture, mattresses, exercise equipment, bicycles, housewares, cookware, domestics and the like,” Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said in a conference call Thursday.

Costco reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.39 billion, or $3.13 a share, on sales of $53.4 billion, up 12.5% from $47.5 billion a year ago. Analysts on average expected adjusted earnings of $2.80 a share on sales of $52.1 billion, with sales expectations rising since Costco reported strong preliminary August sales earlier this month.

Same-store sales for Costco grew 11.4% in the fourth quarter, the largest year-over-year gain in FactSet records that date to 2000, and more than double the growth of the previous quarter. For the full year, same-store sales grew 9.2%, the highest growth since 2004.

For the full fiscal year, Costco revenue grew 9.3% to $163.2 billion from $152.7 billion, while net income also grew 9.3% to $4 billion from $3.66 billion.

“Costco’s consistent revenue growth across merchandise categories reinforces our view that the membership model is arguably the most attractive business model in hardline retail today,” Raymond James analysts said earlier this month in maintaining an outperform rating and $355 price target on the stock.

Costco shares dipped more than 2% in after-hours trading Thursday following the release of the report, after closing the regular session with a 0.7% gain at $347. The stock has returned 18.7% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.29% has returned 1.6%."

MY COMMENT

THIS is RIDICULOUS. They BLOW away ALL the past numbers and set company records in nearly EVERY category and the markets are still NOT satisfied. There is NOTHING negative in the slightest in these earnings. They TOTALLY BLEW AWAY the analyst numbers.

As I said.......for me as a long term investor.......this is money in the bank. These earnings WILL pay off over time.......in my mind a sort of PENT UP POSITIVITY for the stock. I LOVE this company and this stock.

 

OF COURSE........Costco is down about $8.50 per share right now. (See the earnings data in a post above)

This REFLECTS a level of IDIOCY taking over the markets in recent years that I have NEVER seen before. I have to think......that for long term EDUCATED investors........this will lead to AMAZING gains and compounding. The DUMBER the rest of the........so called "professionals" and amateur "investors" are.........the smarter those of us that have patience and a long term horizon will........"SEEM"....... to be in comparison.

If the rest of the investing world becomes MORONS that raises the level of intelligence level of the FEW that are outliers in comparison. Seems like investing and COMPETENCE is going the same way as EVERYTHING ELSE in society today.

OF COURSE......there will come a tipping point where being knowledgeable, educated, and knowing what you are doing will NOT matter. The IDIOCY, SUPERSTITION, and IRRATIONAL thinking will overwhelm logic and reason and will make the markets impossible to navigate if you are using any sort of reason, logic, or rational thinking.

On one hand.......I love it......human nature and human behavior is so interesting to watch. That is.......if it was not so dangerous to society and culture.

 

"They may feel that Costco has made as much as it can, has topped out, and it's time to take profit. Or they are shifting funds into other stocks."

I agree A55........and..........this is EXACTLY what I consider IDIOCY. This company is one of the most successful, long term, companies in the American economy. They have been for a long time. AND........they are still putting up HISTORIC numbers. The FUTURE for this company is very bright.

And today.......nicely GREEN and a nice beat of the SP500 by .12%.

For the week the SP500 lost .63%...........BUT.......for many on this board, including myself,..........the week was POSITIVE. Many of us showed a small gain on Monday and eliminated that DOWN day in our weekly results. THAT turns the week positive for me and many others on here.

ALL IN ALL.........I consider this a positive week for the markets. Another example of the strength of the markets when under attack from all sides. We have been filling and consolidating for the past 2-4 weeks. Sooner or later this will provide the base for the next leg UP.

 

BELOW is one take on Costco going down after HISTORIC earnings. I really think it is MOSTLY the result of program and AI trading. It does not take a........computer trading system.......to see the trend over the past 10 years of stocks drooping right after earnings are reported REGARDLESS of amazing results. AND......than the selling snowballs on itself creating a "little" one or two day.......perfect storm. The good news.......this sort of drop is meaningless and NEVER sustained.

Wall Street drills Costco stock because it's paying workers $2 more an hour during COVID-19

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...2-more-an-hour-during-covid-19-172507787.html

BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) (I have only posted the relevant portion of the article)

Then why the selloff in Costco’s stock? Simply put, analysts appear not too pleased Costco continues to pay its workers what has become known in retail as pandemic pay. Costco began paying its workers an extra $2 an hour back in March at the height of the pandemic. While other retailers such as Kroger and Target have stopped pandemic pay, the notoriously pro worker Costco has kept its practice intact.

And it took a bite out of the bottom line in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Costco realized a whopping $281 million — or 47 cents a share pre-tax — in extra costs tied to the pandemic pay and extra sanitation costs. Execs previously outlined $100 million of these extra costs for the fourth fiscal quarter.

On the earnings call, Costco CFO Richard Galanti signaled no change to pandemic pay is in the offing for now. That likely spooked sell-side analysts that have pushed up their profit estimates on Costco amid strong pandemic related shopping sales gains.

“To-date we are doing that [paying $2 an hour extra] and we've committed to doing that at least through, I believe the first eight weeks of this fiscal quarter, and again, we'll take that time and again. Our numbers have been very good, our employees are on the frontline,” Galanti said.

Jefferies analyst Christopher Mandeville said in a note to clients pandemic pay could cost Costco about $112 million in the most recent quarter.

MY COMMENT

AND.......HERE is the key for this busness....from the article:

"All in, Wall Street would be wise to look beyond the pandemic pay issue on Costco. Being generous with employee compensation has long been in the Costco DNA as a means to drive strong customer service and prevent workers from leaving for other gigs (which is a cost). Moreover, with strong sales momentum into the holidays and a looming board meeting where Costco could announce new shareholder friendly uses for all its cash — the stock does have positive catalysts on the horizon."

ACTUALLY Costco is a leader in employee relations. They have ALWAYS paid well and retained their work force. They are masters of "strong customer service" and retaining workers. It is actually a........PLEASURE.....to shop there......as a former business owner.........and watch the employees interacting with each other and the customers. They have a very highly self motivated work force..........and......obviously the people working there have a great work ethic.

THIS is what keeps a GREAT BUSINESS on top for a very long time. This is EXACTLY what I want to see in every company that I own. It is worth it to pay good wages in order to attract and retain SUPERIOR workers. It is a REAL comparison to watch the workers in Walmart versus the workers in a Costco. It is the difference between the........cheapskate........approach with workers and benefits versus the PREMIUM approach. (in my personal opinion)

 

A nice "little" article about the current correction:

The September market swoon accomplished most of what corrections are supposed to do

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/the...t-of-what-corrections-are-supposed-to-do.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The September market correction has done much of the work set out before it.

The four-week slide took the S&P 500 down 10% at last week’s low, cost the Nasdaq Composite as much as 14%, relieved grossly overextended conditions in mega-cap tech shares, punctured investor overconfidence and showed newcomers to trading that stocks don’t always go up.

So far, so good. (Or bad, depending on one’s risk exposures a month ago.)

If all that was needed after the racy summer rally was to unwind extreme chart readings and sow some self-doubt in bullish investors, it’s not clear much more of a decline is necessary.

Aside from skimming 10% from the S&P 500 and more from the biggest and most stretched growth stocks, the retreat also took the market back in time. At last week’s lows near 3200 — approached a few separate times without being breached — the index returned to where it traded June 8, the peak of reopening optimism; this was also its year-end 2019 level.



By Friday, only a quarter of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day average, right at the border of a common “oversold” reading. More than a third of the stocks in the index are at least 20% off their high.

No magic buy triggers there, but moving in the direction of a better risk/reward setup. If the main complaint through the summer was stocks had raced ahead too far too soon, this reset offers an answer to it.

These are hints that the pullback is maturing, even if it isn’t quite the case that the market is truly washed out or investor sentiment decisively pessimistic.

Investor sentiment turned quickly
The National Association of Active Investment Managers equity-exposure index has dropped from a multi-year high above 100 (meaning leveraged long stocks) on Aug. 26 down into the 50s last week, a roughly neutral reading.

Large speculators in Nasdaq index futures are now aggressively short, which has bullish mean-reversion implications. Last week, more than $25 billion flowed out of equity mutual funds and ETFs, according to Bank of America, the largest withdrawal since December 2018 – more a contrarian positive for stocks than a concern about demand for them.

Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich reported Friday that a survey of 80 institutional investor clients showed an average year-end S&P 500 target if 3350, up less than 2% and a level the market traded at the week before last. This supports the idea that expectations are muted.

The weakness helpfully broadened last week beyond the Nasdaq giants and overheated speculative tech plays — in fact, the Nasdaq nicely outperformed last week after leading the tape up in August and down in the first half of September. This is probably another plus.

Two weeks ago here, I asked, “Do professional investors who’ve been complaining for months about the narrowness of the market and the need for a pullback seem a bit too satisfied and comfortable with the way this market break has played out? Do folks need to be more scared before a reliable low takes hold?” This has happened, to a degree.

Sign of bigger problems?
Again, this is all reassuring for bullish investors if all this has been is an equity-market attitude adjustment and clean-up of crowded positioning.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics, who was looking for the market to backslide starting in late summer, last week said, “Like many equity market corrections, what began as a positioning rationalization evolved into a fundamental deterioration narrative. The Nasdaq correction morphed into a third pandemic wave, potential European lockdowns, risk of election chaos and a stalling and reversal of the economic recovery.”

He disagrees, seeing the manufacturing, housing and corporate-profit recoveries intact, and the equity setup more stable, arguing that “the irrational exuberance positioning in the winner-take-most technology, consumer discretionary and communication services companies is now balanced and…some investors are leaning short.”

For most of the month, credit markets remained firm and Treasury yields almost static, which argued against a fresh buildup of economic stress reflected in the equity weakness. That said, market-based inflation expectations have slipped, the dollar rallied, which can be read as investor doubt in the Federal Reserve’s ability to get inflation to its new, higher target and drive faster nominal growth.

And corporate bonds did weaken a bit last week, with many eyes on the flagging prices of the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) ETF as a foreboding omen. It certainly bears watching. Though Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research points out this is common near the latter part of a stock correction, and in fact when the S&P starts outperforming HYG, it often means the equity uptrend is resuming.

Is it over?
The S&P 500 was down four weeks straight, and of the last eight such streaks, seven gave way to a positive week for the index the following week. Seasonal patterns start to improve through the end of September and into early October. Yes, the Street is clenching up tightly about a possibly suspenseful election, but on the bright side, the Street is already tightly clenched over it. The tendency for a fourth-quarter rally is, if anything, a bit stronger in presidential election years, for what that’s worth.

Reassuring, perhaps, though it should be said the market didn’t exactly prove all that much with Friday’s 1.6% S&P rally, which found traction near that minus-10% threshold but nonetheless didn’t even reach Wednesday’s high by the close. The charts of the mega-cap stocks atop the index look quite disordered, with sharp peaks and broken short-term uptrends, and need to be rebuilt. There is no nearby valuation support for the index to speak of, even as earnings forecasts continue to firm up.

So further chop and mutual frustration among bulls and bears should surprise nobody. That’s how corrections tend to feel, even the benign, healthy ones.'

MY COMMENT

YES......corrections are NORMAL and healthy. Onward and upward.