I had a nice BIG gain today. NVDA alone up by 4.15%......Bummer for the IDIOT that called for it to "remain" stagnant for the rest of the year. I had six stocks in the GREEN and three in the RED. RED were COST, PLTR, and HD. A really good close after the mid morning pull back. I also beat the SP500 today by a whopping....1.92%. A good start to the week.
I assume that NVDA is at an all time high again today at the close. HERE is thee close today. Stocks Fall From Record as Earnings Set to Pick Up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-rise-wall-street-223921137.html Not much new or different.
Looks like I now have ZERO stocks reporting this week. AMZN has changed to October 31. The other two GOOGL and MSFT have changed to next week.
As you can guess by the headlines, my account is super stagnant. Only a little over 125% gain this year. The weather has been nice the past few days so I took most of the time to be outside with the family but also snuck in some end of the year time with a couple of the toys. Hopefully I will have some upgrades for my bike and c5. Both I have owned for nearly a decade.
Looks like the new CEO of NKE is not wasting any time. Nike's new CEO talks 12-year deal with NBA, WNBA as the sports giant attempts a turnaround https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike...ts-giant-attempts-a-turnaround-225209286.html I guess this is a done deal. Now they need to nail down the NFL. BUT....no.....I have no interest in this company.
I have been screwing around with my new refrigerator.......to schedule a replacement since it is not working properly..... and other issues this morning so have not had a lot of time to watch the markets. I can see that not much is really going on. From what I see in the markets I assume that I am currently in the RED with four or five stocks green.
I agree with this little article....in fact to take it further.....I dont really trust or use any economic data as an investor. My focus in on my BUSINESSES that I own and their results. The truth about jobs, layoffs and unemployment — and why investors shouldn’t sweat https://nypost.com/2024/10/21/busin...nemployment-and-why-investors-shouldnt-sweat/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Remember those bears growling through the spring and summer about rising unemployment numbers? September’s better-than-forecast jobs data finally silenced them. But any more bad reports in the months ahead, and they’ll be back. They’ll also be wrong. Again and again. Season after season. That’s because not only unemployment but also job growth are, very simply, always late-lagging indicators. They are useless as recession or stock market predictors – except for the fact that a widespread, wrongheaded fear of them in markets is bullish (Fear of a false factor is always bullish). It seems so intuitively right that rising unemployment should cause recession. Job loss is often personal. We can all imagine the pain and necessary cutbacks. Since consumer spending is 68% of US GDP, job cuts must ripple economywide, causing recession. Right? Not at all. History documents consumer spending as stunningly stable — even through truly wretched recessions. During 2007 – 2009’s deep downturn, “Personal Consumption Expenditures” — the broadest measure — fell just 4.1% from peak to trough. During 2001’s recession, they generally rose (outside September’s 9/11-related, month-to-month dip of 1.6%). The recently unemployed may skimp on luxuries. But the vast majority of consumer spending is essential, not discretionary. Shoppers dig deep to keep buying groceries, mostly pay their rent (or mortgage) and utilities. Spending rarely booms or busts big, whether hiring rises or retreats. To see this, think like a CEO. When downturns start weighing on sales, execs cut costs. They slash inventory, shrink bonuses, travel expenses, perks, cancel marketing campaigns, kill expansion plans. But cutting headcount? That is a dreaded last resort that CEOs hate. Layoffs cause bad press, disrupt firms’ cultures and workers’ lives. And experienced help is tough and costly to replace when times finally improve. Likewise, firms never hire when business first improves. They seek sustained sales gains lest they get boomeranged by some false dawn. Legendary “jobless recovery” fretting, common in early economic rebounds, perpetually misunderstands this. Jobs follow growth, never lead it, always. Examples? While 2007–2009’s recession officially ended in June 2009, unemployment peaked later, at 10% in October. Even then it only fell because discouraged workers stopped seeking work, so weren’t technically counted as unemployed (how it’s calculated). Payrolls didn’t bottom until February 2010. 4 4 By the time unemployment peaked, the S&P 500 already was up 55.3%. When payroll growth resumed? 66.8%! Unemployment stayed above 9% through September 2011, yet stocks climbed all along the way. Similarly, after the March–November 2001 recession, the unemployment rate peaked 17 months later in June 2003. Payrolls didn’t bottom until August. By then, a bull market was roaring – and the recession a distant memory. Even in 2020’s flash, lockdown-induced economic contraction, stocks bottomed in March, unemployment peaked in April and net hiring restarted in May. 4 Stocks first. Economy next. Jobs last. Always. Jobs data tell you where the economy was, not where it’s going. You don’t need me to tell you recent years took us to some bizarre places. Yes, I mean COVID. Lockdowns wreaked economic havoc — and on metrics used to gauge it. Including employment. Through September, over half of 2024’s 0.4 percentage point unemployment rate uptick stems from a growing workforce — not layoffs — heavily from those returning who left the labor force amid emotionally depressed COVID chaos. Hiring is up, but the workforce is up more. Ditto for rising unemployment across much of Europe, Canada and beyond. Yes, hiring slowed since 2021 and 2022’s rapid rise – to normal, pre-pandemic rates. Consider 2009 – 2020. After payrolls bottomed in mid-2010, year-over-year growth bounced between 1.2% and 2.3%. September’s 1.5% versus a year earlier is right about there. We struggle to recognize the post-COVID return of job data normalcy. But it is nothing to fear or cheer. Jobs data just bring up the rear." MY COMMENT Add in the constant revisions and corrections to the data.......and....the government constantly twerking ......(yes I used the word TWERKING on purpose, it is the perfect descriptive word for our government and how they act)........ how the data is collected and analyzed.....and this economic data "stuff" is simply useless. In addition....I invest based on how a single specific company is doing....not the entire USA economy which is totally different.
This is just SILLY.....but typical. "SUPPOSEDLY" the market pause today is "traders" worrying about the pace of the FED rate cuts. Stocks Decline as Wall Street Mulls Fed-Cut Pace: Markets Wrap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-set-decline-wall-222735670.html This is actually a pretty good article with much discussion about rate targets and the FED, etc, etc, etc. BUT....sorry.....the current high Ten Year Yield is not going to be able to stand up to a FED rate cutting campaign. We are holding above 4% in the rate right now but it WILL drop. What we are seeing right now in the Ten Year Yield is simply short term trading impacting the yield.....it does NOT reflect what will be the longer term reality.
This is important for all of us that....actually....pay taxes. IRS announces new federal income tax brackets for 2025 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/irs-2025-federal-income-tax-brackets.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important cocntent) "Key Points The IRS has unveiled higher federal tax brackets for 2025 to adjust for inflation. The standard deduction will increase to $30,000 for married couples filing together and $15,000 for single taxpayers. There are also changes to the long-term capital gains brackets, estate tax exemption, child tax credit eligibility and more. In its announcement Tuesday, the agency raised the income thresholds for each bracket, which applies to tax year 2025 for returns filed in 2026. The top rate of 37% applies to individuals with taxable income above $626,350 and married couples filing jointly earning $751,600 or more for 2025. The IRS also boosted figures for dozens of other provisions, including long-term capital gains brackets, estate and gift tax exemption and eligibility for the child tax credit, among others. Federal tax brackets for 2025 Federal income tax brackets show how much you owe on each part of your “taxable income,” which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income. After 2025, lower taxes enacted by former President Donald Trump will sunset without action from Congress. If the provision expires, the tax brackets will revert to 2017 levels, shifting to 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35% and 39.6%. Higher standard deduction The standard deduction will also increase in 2025, rising to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $29,200 in 2024. Starting in 2025, single filerscan claim$15,000, a bump from $14,600. Trump’s tax cuts also included higher standard deductions, which will sunset after 2025 if Congress doesn’t extend that tax break. " MY COMMENT There are charts in the article showing the actual brackets.
HERE is the new CAPITAL GAINS brackets for 2025. The IRS unveils higher capital gains tax brackets for 2025 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/irs-2025-capital-gains-brackets.html The IRS on Tuesday set out the 2025 inflation adjustments for long-term capital gains brackets, these apply to investments held a year or more.. For 2025, single filers can have $48,350 in taxable income — $96,700 (married couples filing jointly) — and the rate is 0% for long-term capital gains. You calculate taxable income by subtracting your standard/itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.
RIGHT....another robot story. Yet this think for all its advanced tech can not walk. Meet Ameca, the world’s ‘most advanced’ humanoid robot https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/16/meet-the-worlds-most-advanced-humanoid-robot.html BUT....it can do this: ".......tell jokes, respond in voices of celebrities or famous TV characters, and even dance. She even addressed concerns about whether robots pose a threat to humanity." "Most advanced"? OK.
I just saw this headline: "Here’s why Goldman Sachs’ gloomy 10-year stock market forecast is no reason panic" I cant open it since I am not a member. BUT....I have my own take on the Goldman Sach's 10 year forecast.....it is simply FATALLY WRONG. Number one it is impossible for anyone to predict the next ten market years. These morons can not even predict the next market hour....much less ten years. Number two....see number one.
Even though I have five stocks up right now and am beating the SP500.....I am still in the RED today. Compliments of NVDA being slightly down. This stock as it goes up is becoming a larger and larger percentage of the value of my entire portfolio. It is now my largest holding....BY FAR......and when it is up or down it drives my entire portfolio result. I am not super happy being captive to a single stock.....but....there is no way I am selling any shares of NVDA.
OK.....HALLELUJAH.....I had a small gain today. A good end to a mild day. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.27%. I had only three stofks in the RED. NVDA, AAPL, and HD. NVDA was up and down today but not moving much. In the end it was down by 12cents. Very happy to make some money today....every little bit counts and I am once again at an all time high. It seems like I make them all the time lately ....even if I dont post it. ONWARD AND UPWARD......to year end and beyond.
If I was opening any sort of Index Fund I would definately use an ETF. I dont care about being able to trade it during market hours. I care a bout the TAX EFFICIENCY of the ETF's. Here’s when exchange-traded funds really flex their ‘tax magic’ for investors https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/whe...eally-flex-their-tax-magic-for-investors.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Exchange-traded funds can help reduce annual tax bills for investors relative to mutual funds. ETF managers can generally avoid distributing capital gains taxes to shareholders. The tax savings apply to investors in nonretirement accounts. Those holding U.S. stocks tend to benefit most. Investors can generally reduce their tax losses in a portfolio by using exchange-traded funds over mutual funds, experts said. “ETFs come with tax magic that’s unrivaled by mutual funds,” Bryan Armour, Morningstar’s director of passive strategies research for North America and editor of its ETFInvestor newsletter, wrote earlier this year. But certain investments benefit more from that so-called magic than others. Tax savings are moot in retirement accounts ETFs’ tax savings are typically greatest for investors in taxable brokerage accounts. They’re a moot point for retirement investors, like those who save in a 401(k) plan or individual retirement account, experts said. Retirement accounts are already tax-preferred, with contributions growing tax-free — meaning ETFs and mutual funds are on a level playing field relative to taxes, experts said. The tax advantage “really helps the non-IRA account more than anything,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, a certified financial planner based in Orlando, Florida, and a founding member of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo. “You’ll have tax efficiency that a standard mutual fund is not going to be able to achieve, hands down,” he said. The ‘primary use case’ for ETFs Mutual funds are generally less tax-efficient than ETFs because of capital gains taxes generated inside the fund. Taxpayers who sell investments for a capital gain (i.e., a profit) are likely familiar with the concept of paying tax on those earnings. The same concept applies within a mutual fund: Mutual fund managers generate capital gains when they sell holdings within the fund. Managers distribute those capital gains to investors each year; they divide them equally among all shareholders, who pay taxes at their respective income tax rate. However, ETF managers are generally able to avoid capital gains taxes due to their unique structure. The upshot is that asset classes that generate large capital gains relative to their total return are “a primary use case for ETFs,” Armour told CNBC. (This discussion only applies to buying and selling within the fund. An investor who sells their ETF for a profit may still owe capital gains tax.) Why U.S. stocks ‘almost always’ benefit from ETFs U.S. stock mutual funds have tended to generate the most capital gains relative to other asset classes, experts said. Over five years, from 2019 to 2023, about 70% of U.S. stock mutual funds kicked off capital gains, said Armour, who cited Morningstar data. That was true of less than 10% of U.S. stock ETFs, he said. Capital gains aren’t bad; they’re investment profits. But ETF managers often avoid taxes on those profits whereas mutual funds don’t, due to differences in how they can trade. “It’s almost always an advantage to have your stock portfolio in an ETF over a mutual fund” in a nonretirement account, Armour said. U.S. “growth” stocks — a stock subcategory — saw more than 95% of their total return come from capital gains in the five years through September 2024, according to Morningstar. That makes them “the greatest beneficiary of ETFs’ tax efficiency,” Armour said. Large-cap and small-cap “core” stocks also “benefit considerably,” with about 85% to 90% of their returns coming from capital gains, Armour said. About 25% to 30% of value stocks’ returns come from dividends — which are taxed differently than capital gains within an ETF — making them the “least beneficial” U.S. stocks in an ETF, Armour said. “They still benefit substantially, though,” he said. ETF and mutual fund dividends are taxed similarly. ETF dividends are taxed according to how long the investor has owned the fund. Actively managed stock funds are also generally better candidates for an ETF structure, Fitzgerald said. Active managers tend to distribute more capital gains than those who passively track a stock index, because active managers buy and sell positions frequently to try to beat the market, he said. However, there are instances in which passively managed funds can trade often, too, such as with so-called strategic beta funds, Armour said. Bonds have a smaller advantage ETFs are generally unable to “wash away” tax liabilities related to currency hedging, futures or options, Armour said. Additionally, tax laws of various nations may reduce the tax benefit for international stock ETFs, like those investing in Brazil, India, South Korea or Taiwan, for example, he said. Bond ETFs also have a smaller advantage over mutual funds, Armour said. That’s because an ample amount of bond funds’ returns generally comes from income (i.e., bond payments), not capital gains, he said. Fitzgerald says he favors holding bonds in mutual funds rather than ETFs. However, his reasoning isn’t related to taxes. During periods of high volatility in the stock market — when an unexpected event triggers a lot of fear selling and a stock market dip, for example — Fitzgerald often sells bonds to buy stocks at a discount for clients. However, during such periods, he’s noticed the price of a bond ETF tends to disconnect more (relative to a mutual fund) from the net asset value of its underlying holdings. The bond ETF often sells at more of a discount relative to a similar bond mutual fund, he said. Selling the bond position for less money somewhat dilutes the benefit of the overall strategy, he said." MY COMMENT A no brainier decision if you have a choice between a regular fund and an ETF for the same investment.
No mention of tracking error or market maker overhead. IMO, almost NO ONE understands how ETFs work. Anyone I've ever spoken to in the financial industry has literally told me the market maker operates in altruistic fashion wanting no compensation at all for the creating or destruction of ETF shares, nor do they want any compensation for the giant pile of money they necessarily need to have laying around to perform this task. It was quite a bit of work to learn how ETFs work, perhaps due to the fundamental lack of understanding by anyone, but it was eye opening. Now, I'm not saying mutual funds are without flaw....
One of the stories of the day....today.....and going forward. The housing market is STAGNANT right now. US existing home sales fall to 14-year low in September https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140141575.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, likely as prospective buyers held out for lower mortgage rates, with house prices remaining elevated. Home sales fell 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would be unchanged at a rate of 3.86 million units. Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, decreased 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September. Home resales have struggled to rebound after being depressed by a surge in mortgage rates in the spring. Mortgage rates initially dropped after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last month, but they have risen over the past three weeks as solid economic data, including retail sales and annual revisions to national accounts, forced traders to abandon expectations for another 50-basis-point rate cut next month. Potential homebuyers are remaining on the sidelines anticipating even lower borrowing costs. The NAR speculated that the upcoming Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election could be making prospective homeowners hesitant to commit themselves. There is, however, no hard evidence that the election is influencing buying decisions. "There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist. "Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election." Housing inventory increased 1.5% to 1.39 million units last month, the highest since October 2020. Supply surged 23.0% from one year ago. Despite the improving supply, the median existing home price increased 3.0% from a year earlier to $404,500 in September. Home prices rose in all four regions. At September's sales pace, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, the highest since May 2020 and up from 3.4 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. Properties typically stayed on the market for 28 days in September compared to 21 days a year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 26% of sales versus 27% a year ago. That share remains below the 40% that economists and realtors say is needed for a robust housing market. All-cash sales made up 30% of transactions, up from 29% a year ago. Distressed sales, including foreclosures, represented only 2% of transactions, virtually unchanged from last year." MY COMMENT More supply.....but.....we are in a big standoff between sellers and buyers. I believe we are at the start of a BIG STAGNANT market for homes. It is going to last at least till the early spring.......and....perhaps longer. Sooner or later you would expect to see sellers lowering prices.....but not yet.
This is the other big story of the day. This company is in real trouble. A perfect example of disconnected, bean-counter, arrogant, just plain DUMB, management....just concerned about themselves. Every decision they made over the past ten years had the result of dismantling the CULTURE and HISTORY of this ICONIC company. This is a perfect example of management destroying a company by changing the CULTURE of the company. A BIG LESSON that company culture is a HUGE factor in business success. NKE is another perfect example. Boeing reports $6B quarterly loss with big union vote looming https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boei...ss-with-big-union-vote-looming-120543797.html
I must say I agree. Of course I own the stock as the largest single holding in my portfolio....by far. Nvidia stock is still undervalued, BofA analyst argues https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-is-still-undervalued-bofa-analyst-argues-131225845.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It’s no secret that computer gaming chipmaker turned artificial intelligence wunderkind Nvidia (NVDA) has had a fantastic year, but the party may have just begun for investors. “The revenue monetization opportunity is so much greater [than investors appreciate],” Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya told Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (video above; listen below). “They really are a system integrator at this point,” Arya added. “They’re selling complete racks with all the computing, the networking, the optical resources, the memory, everything thrown in.” The top semiconductor analyst just made a few waves in the market with his latest call on Nvidia. He lifted his earnings per share estimates for 2024 and 2025, citing likely strong demand for its new Blackwell chip. Demand for Nvidia's prior AI chip — Hopper — remains hot, Arya said. Given this, Nvidia's stock is still cheap trading on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 37 times, per Arya. With the company poised to haul in a whopping $200 billion in free cash flow the next two years, Arya said the stock looks cheap on a price-to-cash flow basis too. Arya sees at least 40% more upside in Nvidia's stock. Shares are already up 190% year to date and hovering near records amid an 18% surge in October. Rival AMD's stock (AMD) is only up 5% on the year, as the performance specs on the company's AI chip released a few weeks ago disappointed investors. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) continues to slog through one of the worst periods in its existence, dominated by layoffs and inferior products. Shares have plunged 55% this year. Key drivers for Arya's bullish Nvidia call (alongside less bullish views on Intel) include coming next-generation AI chips — Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra. Those offerings will begin hitting the market in Q3 2025 based on Arya's analysis. “Everyone is in a race,” Arya said about the country's AI infrastructure buildout. Arya envisions a scenario where OpenAI and companies like Meta (META) drive the market with open structures and cloud companies act as go-betweens. That only drives more need for Nvidia's best in class chips. It's a demand backdrop that is real and lasting, C3.ai (AI) CEO Tom Siebel said on Opening Bid. "As it relates to AI writ large, I mean, this is a secular change," Siebel said. "This is not ephemeral. It's a genuine big deal."" MY COMMENT As I have said before...I have NEVER seen a company put up the kind of numbers....kind of product demand......and amazing focused management...that this company has. It is like MSFT in the 1990 to 2000 GLORY DAYS...but way better management. I STILL view this stock as a once in a lifetime company.
