The above is the news of the day.....so far. BUT....it is really not big news. The BIG NEWS will come at the close when the BIG CAP TECH earnings will take CENTER STAGE.
Here is the other economic news today. Although I dont consider this "economic data" or "news" at all. It is simply a meaningless survey. ESPECIALLY for long term investors. US consumer confidence rebounds in October https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-rebounds-october-143114481.html
Here is another take on the jobs data. US job openings fell in September to a 3 1/2-year low https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-openings-fell-september-141627888.html
NOTHING the market does today really matters much. It is all about EARNINGS, EARNINGS, EARNINGS......after the bell.
I have not looked at my actual account but I know I started the day in the RED......NOW....I am pretty sure I am in the GREEN with most, if not all, of the big cap tech stocks now green. We have FLIPPED the open today.....but.....it is still ONLY a mildly confident market today. The price moves are just not very big. We are probably in for a MILD but see-saw day in the markets.......flipping around from slightly up to slightly down and vice versa. We will see how much of the current GREEN CONFIDENCE is real as we near the close. Will there be a late day FADE as we get close to the after the bell earnings? Could be. BUT....it will really not matter....what will count will the the actual earnings......and.....guidance.
BOTTOM LINE.....this is simply a DO-NOTHING week for long term investors. The GOOD earnings that I expect will provide a pay-off for longer term investors going forward REGARDLESS of the short term....media driven.....take on the earnings that we will see this week. SO....we all have a very busy week ahead of us......doing NOTHING.
Kind of a mixed market in my nine stocks today.......but I still have a good gain so far. OTHERWISE......today.....I see NOTHING.
I ended with a medium gain today......green is green. four stocks in the RED....PLTR, CMG, COST, and HD. I also beat the SP500 by 0.25%.
HERE are the GOOGL earnings today. Alphabet beats on top and bottom lines, boosted by cloud revenue https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/alphabet-to-report-q3-earnings-after-the-bell.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Alphabet reported stronger than expected earnings results. The company reported blow-out cloud revenue at $11.35 billion, up nearly 35% from the $8.41 billion a year ago. Alphabet said its AI products helped boost the company’s cloud revenue. Google parent Alphabet reported third-quarter earnings that beat on top and bottom lines with strong revenue growth from the company’s cloud unit. The company’s shares rose 4% in after-hours trading. Here are the results: Earnings per share: $2.12 vs $1.85 expected by LSEG Revenue: $88.27 billion vs$86.30 billion expected by LSEG Here are other numbers Wall Street was watching: YouTube advertising revenue: $8.92 billion vs. $8.89 billion, according to StreetAccount Google Cloud revenue: $11.35 billionvs.$10.88 billion, according to StreetAccount Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $13.72 billion vs. $13.53 billion, according to StreetAccount Alphabet’s revenue grew 15% year over year, which is stronger than the same quarter last year. The company reported blow-out cloud revenue at $11.35 billion, up nearly 35% from the $8.41 billion a year ago. The company attributed its strong cloud results to their AI offerings, which includes subscriptions for enterprise customers. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai opened his call with investors saying the company’s “full-stack” of AI products are now operating at scale and being used by Google’s billions of users, “creating a virtuous cycle.” The search company’s strong quarter kicks off a big week of earnings for tech’s mega-cap companies. Meta and Microsoft report on Wednesday followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The company reported advertising revenue of $65.85 billion. That was up from $59.65 billion a year ago, showing that Google’s advertising business continues to grow, though at a slower pace than in the second quarter. YouTube ad revenue just beat analysts’ expectations, showing better growth than last quarter. The Google-owned company faces increased pressure from other advertiser options such as Netflix, TikTok and Amazon. Net income increased to $26.3 billion, or $2.12 per share, compared to $19.7 billion, or $1.55 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Other Bets, which includes the company’s life sciences unit Verily and self-driving car unit Waymo, reported revenue of $388 million in the third quarter. That’s up from $297 million a year ago. Last week, Waymo closed a $5.6 billion funding round to expand its robotaxi service in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix andto more cities. Google Lens, the company’s image recognition product that uses mobile cameras and photos, is now used for over 20 billion visual searches per month, Pichai said. It’s one of the fastest growing search products and is used often for shopping, he added. Alphabet’s third quarter was filled with shake-ups externally and internally, including at its most senior ranks and its most important business. Earlier this month, the company replaced Prabhakar Raghavan, the company’s search and ads boss since 2018, with Nick Fox, a longtime executive known for his role in Google’s Assistant unit. Additionally, the team working on the Gemini app, which includes the company’s artificial intelligence direct-to-consumer products, will join Google DeepMind under head Demis Hassabis. The company on Tuesday announced that it is evaluating how this reorganization will affect its segment operating results." MY COMMENT GOOGL earnings.....BOOM.....a BIG BEAT all the way around. Plus....a BIG win for AI.....with the massive gain in Cloud Revenue.
Reporting tomorrow we have MSFT.....followed by.....AMZN and AAPL on Thursday. We also have META on Wednesday which I DO NOT own and have no plans to own.
HERE is my CMG earnings. Chipotle shares fall as same-store sales growth disappoints https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q3-2024-earnings.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Chipotle Mexican Grill on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results, as earnings beat expectations but revenue fell short. The burrito chain’s same-store sales rose 6%, just shy of StreetAccount estimates of 6.3%. For the full year, Chipotle reiterated its outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage. Chipotle Mexican Grill on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results despite another quarter of higher traffic to its restaurants. Shares of the company fell 7% in extended trading. Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG: Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 25 cents expected Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.82 billion expected Chipotle reported third-quarter net income of $378.4 million, or 28 cents per share, up from $313.2 million, or 23 cents per share, a year earlier. The company’s food and beverage costs increased during the quarter, in part due to Chipotle’s decision to reemphasize generous portions after social media-fueled backlash over the size of its burrito bowls this summer. Excluding items, the company earned 27 cents per share. Net sales climbed 13% to $2.79 billion. Same-store sales rose 6%, just shy of StreetAccount estimates of 6.3%. Traffic to restaurants increased 3.3% in the quarter, continuing the chain’s streak of bucking an overall slump in foot traffic across the industry. While many consumers have opted to eat out less, Chipotle has benefited from having a wealthier customer base that is willing to pay more for its burritos and bowls. During the third quarter, Chipotle brought back its popular smoked brisket for a limited time. It is currently the most-expensive protein, topping even the chain’s steak and beef barbacoa options. Digital sales accounted for 34% of the chain’s quarterly food and beverage revenue. The company opened 86 new locations during the quarter, 73 of which included a “Chipotlane” dedicated to online order pickup. For the full year, Chipotle reiterated its outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage. The company also anticipates it will open between 285 and 315 new restaurants this year. Looking to 2025, Chipotle plans to open between 315 and 345 new locations. More than 80% of those restaurants will include a Chipotlane. The earnings report marks the company’s first since CEO Brian Niccol departed to lead Starbucks’ turnaround. Chipotle’s board has tapped Chief Operating Officer Scott Boatwright as the company’s interim chief executive." MY COMMENT Mixed earnings....slightly. I still LIKE this company a lot. They are still the STAR of their niche and industry. Looks like they are still going to meet their annual goals for sales growth and opening new stores. I will continue to hold this stock for the long term....although it is a small....."training wheels" position.
Here are the AMD earnings that TireSmoke talked about earlier. AMD shares fall as forecast fails to impress despite strong AI growth https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/amd-earnings-report-q3-2024.html I would call this a definite BEAT......but some areas are just a "push" on expectations. I also like that their data center business saw good gains. A good omen for NVDA. As to AMD....outlook is killing the stock after-hours. Another good omen for NVDA since they are DOMINATING AMD.
Of course heading into the BIG TECH earnings today.....the NASDAQ hit a new all time record close. RIDING THE WAVE.
AMD has always given pretty conservative guidance. I think Lisa goes with the under promise and over deliver mantra, which is a thing of the past for current wall street. It's almost like blowout results for the previous quarter are expected as normal and the projections for the next quarter are all that matter. It's a frustrating stock to own and my investing stress level has gone down greatly since I sold my majority holding. I look back at the 5 shares I own now and just laugh, almost like a old friend that try's really hard and does all the right things and random bad shit keeps happening to them.
It was a .....DUMB AS A POST......open today. The STUPIDITY of the SHORT TERM. Much of the RED was driven by the AMD earnings. The other earnings reports that came out yesterday and were......good to glowing......were ignored by the media in their headlines of the day. I have been siting since the open expecting to see the markets ignore it all and.....GO GREEN......and now....it has happened. The BIG ONE today is the AMD earnings and how it is being extrapolated to other chip and smaller tech/AI stocks. Even NVDA was suffering as a result to the BALONEY being pushed from the AMD report. ACTUALLY......the AMD report was EXTREMELY POSITIVE for NVDA. Any issues AMD is having are because of.......NVDA....NOT......general market or industry conditions. Any issues AMD is having is due to having to compete with NVDA which is eating their lunch every day. AND....actually.....I did not think the AMD report was that negative.....it was about what I expected from a company trying to compete with such a dominant company as NVDA.
I like this little article. Inside October’s Spooky Reader Mailbag You have questions. We have answers. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...mentary/inside-octobers-spooky-reader-mailbag (BOLD is my opinion ORR what I consider important content) "Halloween is nearly here, so in lieu of spooky puns, how about we open the mailbag and see what candy … err questions are on you fine folks’ minds? Are bear markets hard to predict? We would say they are impossible to predict, if we are using the strict definition. That is, there is no strict criteria one can use to say, with confidence, that there is a high likelihood a bear market will start at a specific, future point. We can look around and assess whether the conditions that would typically accompany a market peak are in place, but we also know that euphoria can run for a while. The dot-com world was super sloppy for most of 1999, for example, but stocks kept romping until March 2000. Now, what we do think is possible is identifying a bear market early enough in its lifespan to do something about it. This is not technically a prediction of a bear market. It is the observation that a bear market is quite likely already underway, at a time when there is a high likelihood that there is considerably more downside ahead than behind. This is when we think there can be a rational case to reduce equity exposure. If you are three months into a downturn, the market is down by about -6% and you have well-founded reasons to expect it to continue falling for a protracted period and breach -20%, then it can be beneficial to reduce stock exposure. If you are down -19% and see it probably crossing -20%, then it probably isn’t unless you have a very, very, very good reason to think it might get to -40% or whatever. These numbers aren’t airtight guidelines, mind you, they are illustrations. In our view, one of the biggest risks a long-term growth-seeking investor can take is being out of stocks. If you are on the sidelines and miss bull market returns, it can be a major setback to reaching your goals. Hence, it is important not to get fooled out of stocks by a correction (sharp, sentiment-fueled drop of -10% to -20%). Similarly, you don’t want to jump out of stocks late in a bear market and miss the rebound. So we find it helpful to assess downturns with some general filters. Bear markets tend to average out to a monthly decline of about -2%. This does not mean they lose -2% month in, month out. It means the total cumulative decline, averaged out on a monthly basis, would translate to about -2%. We also know that the biggest declines tend to come late in a bear market, in their panicky last stage, and not at the beginning. So if you get a sharp downturn out of the gate, chances are it is a correction or, if it is a bear market, there may well be a better exit point. Either way, what would most raise our eyebrows would be a slow rolling decline. When assessing whether a bear market is underway, we do a lot of work to identify whether the market is about to get walloped by some massive negative no one is paying attention to or whether there is too much excess and too-high expectations, which a bear market would need to squeeze out. It is a bit art, a bit science, and a whole lot of qualitative and quantitative analysis. And for you, the good news is that MarketMinder is here to keep you updated on this analysis. We won’t always be right, but we will show how we arrived at our opinions. How long are bull markets? It varies. Using S&P 500 data from Global Financial Data, Inc. and FactSet, the median bull market length since 1932—excluding the current one—is 4.5 years. But the actual lengths within that run the gamut from 1.8 years (March 2020 – January 2022) to 10.9 (March 2009 – February 2020). Age alone tells you nothing. An “old” bull market can have a lot of life left in it, while a “young” bull market could be near its end. So this bull market having just passed its second birthday is fun trivia but also pretty meaningless. The same holds for bear markets. They run from a little over a month (February to March 2020) to as long as three years in the post-WWII era. Any updated thoughts on the talk of the world moving away from the US dollar? Our opinion hasn’t changed, but we have another fresh piece of evidence that this is all talk and not actually a thing. At last week’s BRICS summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent a lot of time calling for the countries to start their own cross-border payment system to take the dollar out of the equation. Russia being locked out of Swift and Euroclear due to sanctions, he has pretty high incentives to push this. The other countries (Brazil, India, China, South Africa and everyone else who showed up) were like, no, that is your problem, we actually want to keep using these systems and stay in good standing with the West. We mean, those weren’t the exact words, but that is our loose translation of the diplomatic jargon and the general sense that Putin’s proposal landed with a thud and crickets. Countries like complaining about the dollar … almost as much as they like using it." MY COMMENT I rarely worry about if we are seeing a bull or bear market. I just take it and go with the flow for the long term. Why? Because it is just about impossible to know when either one starts......and......it is definately impossible to call the end of either. Market timing sounds great but in reality is is just about impossible to pull off.....especially.....knowing when it is time to get back into the markets after a NASTY BEAR MARKET has driven you out of the markets. I want to capture.....ALL....the very early gains and explosive market moves up that are unanticipated and seems to always come out of nowhere. The ONLY way to do this is to be in the markets all the time.
HERE is a little bit of market history. RIP John ‘Mac’ McQuown, the OG quant The father of passive investing has passed away https://www.ft.com/content/652a3456-eb50-4802-a72d-57a0f47c8665?shareType=nongift
AND......a little bit of current cultural and social commentary. Vinyl thrives at United Record Pressing as the nation’s oldest record maker plays a familiar tune https://apnews.com/article/nashvill...ersary-vinyl-df5cf4cc8f74b3575adcd403a65d88cd Cracker Barrel's Grandma Sweatshirts Are the Newest Gen Z Trend The company says sales are up 700%! https://www.countryliving.com/life/...arrels-embroidered-sweatshirts-viral-tik-tok/
POOR SMCI........this is a HUGE business KILLER. Is this company screwed? I dont know......but it is definately going to take a HUGE hit. Perhaps it will end up as a very attractive take-over target as the shares tank. There must be value there in the company tech and manufacturing facilities. Super Micro Computer stock tanks after accounting firm resigns https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supe...-after-accounting-firm-resigns-135641306.html HERE is the crux of this article: "Super Micro Computer stock (SMCI) cratered Wednesday morning, falling over 30% after a filing revealed accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY) has resigned from its relationship with the tech company. In the resignation letter, EY said: “We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”" MY COMMENT Currently down by 31% today. Current price.....$34. AVOID this company at all costs. I no longer own it having.....LUCKILY.....sold all shares some time ago to raise more money for NVDA shares. If I still owned the stock what would I do? I would immediately SELL all shares. Move on and never look back. We are STILL WAITING....for their Annual Report which was due to be released in August......and is .......STILL.....being held back from release. BRUTAL STUFF.......when this comes to light in a significant company.
