Why this bull market feels 'weird': Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-this-bull-market-feels-weird-morning-brief-100024664.html MY COMMENT HERE is the basis discussed in this article: ".....it hardly feels like a landing. There's too much going on, from Big Tech earnings and crazy weather effects on data to an impending election." I will tell you what this statement means to me. It means that the MEDIA is out of control and driving the unrest and nervousness with their CONSTANT 24/7 fear-mongering and mental disruption. Every single day is some NEGATIVE story line in the financial world. The constant ATTACK on investors sanity just goes on, and on, and on,....every single day. it never ends. So......DUH.....of course people, including investors, dont know what to think.
Here is the GOOD NEWS story of the day. Alphabet stock surges as earnings crush estimates on strong cloud growth https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alph...timates-on-strong-cloud-growth-213627222.html
If there is any logic in the short term....which I doubt....NVDA will be in the GREEN by the close today. Not that I am making a trading call.
This is ALL very good news for investors and the future of the FED rate cutting campaign. I STILL say we are looking at 2 more cuts this year and perhaps......at least....SIX more next year. If this economic news continues to come in good......like these reports...... and the ELECTION ends in a way that investors and the economy will like.....we could be in for an even BETTER year than this year....for investors next year. There is POTENTIAL for a once in a lifetime BULL MARKET RALLY over the next EIGHTEEN months.....on top of the GREAT bull market rally we have already seen to date. There is good potential that we will see a once in a lifetime INVESTOR general market. it could be a....REALLY FUN....life changing time for long term investors....over the next couple of years. Emphasis on......"COULD". U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the third quarter, less than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/us-gdp-q3-2024.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2. Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth. The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target. The U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown. Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday that is adjusted for inflation and seasonality. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.1%. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. Wednesday’s reading is the first of three the department will issue. The report confirms that the U.S. expansion has continued despite elevated interest rates and long-standing worries that the burst of fiscal and monetary stimulus that carried the economy through the Covid crisis wouldn’t be enough to sustain growth. However, resilient consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity, has helped keep the economy moving, as has a relentless wave of government spending that pushed the budget deficit to more than $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024. Personal consumption expenditures, the proxy for consumer activity, increased 3.7% for the quarter, the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023, contributing nearly 2.5 percentage points to the total. Another major factor the department cited for growth was federal government spending, which exploded higher by 9.7%, pushed by a 14.9% surge in defense outlays. Fiscal spending at the federal level contributed 0.6 percentage point to the GDP growth rate. However, an 11.2% jump in imports, which subtract from GDP, held back the growth number and offset an 8.9% gain in exports. Markets showed little reaction to the data, as stock market futures pointed to a mixed opening. Treasury yields also were mixed. Earlier in the morning, payrolls processing firm ADP reported that private job growth surged by 233,000 in October, well above expectations. “You’ve got the perfect combination of strong growth and slowing inflation. What more could you want?” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “But a lot of people want to have lived a less inflationary period that is still hurting them. That’s why they think the economy is still rotten.” The GDP release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target, though far from its peak in mid-2022. Markets widely expect the Fed to cut another quarter percentage point off its benchmark short-term borrowing rate when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting on Nov. 7. There was good news on the inflation front: The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 1.5% for the quarter, below the central bank’s 2% target and sharply down from the 2.5% increase in Q2. However, excluding food and energy, core PCE was still up 2.2%. Fed officials generally consider core inflation as a better measure of longer-term trends. Consumers have been using savings and credit to help fuel their purchases. The personal savings rate decelerated in the third quarter to 4.8%, down from a 5.2% level that had been revised up sharply. Along with the expectations for more Fed easing, the economic news shares a backdrop with the contentious U.S. presidential race, which most polls show in a dead heat between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. While Harris has boasted of the ongoing strength in economic activity — GDP has now grown for 10 consecutive quarters — Trump has countered by citing inflation that peaked more than two years ago at its highest level since the early 1980s. The pace of price increases has slowed considerably since then, though the PCE index has risen nearly 17% while Harris has served as vice president." MY COMMENT The above GDP miss and the PCE data is showing that we are in a GOLDEN SWEET SPOT right now for investors. GDP was a miss BUT is still doing very nicely. PCE is right in line to fully justify a nice round of RATE CUTS by the FED. I also have high hopes....that the GARBAGE of the election will soon end well...... and....we will all be feeling the JOY of a great investing environment for the next 2-4 years.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN EVERYONE. We have our candy all ready for tomorrow. We are doing FULL SIZE boxes of candy and candy bars. This year the candy cost us about $140. We will get about 80 kids at our house. We dont mind the cost since it is just once a year.......plus.....we like to make things fun for the neighborhood kids any chance we get. You only get one childhood.....and....it is soon over.
NVDA is STILL working its way back toward ZERO today. It is now -$1.14......or....(-0.81%) for the day. I am still......"feeling"....a green close for NVDA today. Kind of like what I have been......"FEELING".....about the election for the past month....as I continue to IGNORE all the articles, headlines, polls, and news coverage of the election. I have already voted....so my part in the process is over. All I will say at this point is......YOU....will get what you vote for.....and....therefore....DESERVE. "YOU".....being the country as a whole. (NO......I will not say who I voted for or why) I will not argue politics on this board.....or any board for that matter. It is simply a BIG WASTE OF TIME.
So much for my...."feeling"....on NVDA. Looks like a GREEN close today is off the table......as the big averages are going RED. Good thing I am a....long term investor.
A WASTED market day today. I think the SMCI situation created a lot of NOISE. In any event I had a loss today with only three stocks in the GREEN......GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN. I also lost out to the SP500 today by 0.31%.
HERE is the MSFT earnings BEAT. Microsoft beats on top and bottom lines, driven by better-than-expected cloud growth https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/microsoft-msft-q1-earnings-report-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated. Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates. Microsoft has revised its segment reporting practices, resulting in a considerably bigger productivity and business practices unit. Guidance will come on a conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Microsoft on Wednesday reported an earnings and revenue beat for the fiscal first quarter, as the company’s Azure cloud infrastructure business grew faster than predicted. Here’s how the company performed, compared with what Wall Street was expecting based on a survey of analysts by LSEG: Earnings per share: $3.30 vs. $3.10 expected Revenue: $65.59 billion vs. $64.51 billion expected Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% year over year in the quarter, which ended Sept. 30, according to a statement. Net income, at $24.67 billion, was up from $22.29 billion in the year-ago quarter. In August, Microsoft said it would revise the reporting of business segments to reflect its management approach. Mobility and security services, along with some Windows revenue, are now part of the productivity and business processes unit, which includes Office software. Revenue from productivity and business processes reached $28.32 billion in the quarter. The number is up 12% and higher than the $27.90 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. It’s 38% higher than the $20.45 billion midpoint of the forecast that management gave in July, because the actual total accounts for the changes. Investors received a clearer picture of cloud computing consumption at Microsoft, because for the first time, the Azure and other cloud services revenue growth metric excludes mobility and security and Power BI data analytics sales. Azure growth for the quarter came in at 33%, with 12 points coming from artificial intelligence services. CNBC’s consensus for Azure growth was 32.8%, while StreetAccount’s was 29.4%. The full intelligent cloud segment including Azure, Windows Server and enterprise services generated $24.09 billion in revenue. That’s up 20% and slightly more than the $24.04 StreetAccount consensus. On Tuesday, Google reported 35% annual growth in its rival cloud business to $11.35 billion. Amazon, which leads the cloud infrastructure market, is scheduled to report results Thursday. Microsoft has shrunken the size of its segment called “more personal computing” through the reporting changes. In the fiscal first quarter it contributed $13.18 billion in revenue. That’s up about 17% and above the $12.56 billion StreetAccount consensus. The company saw 2% growth in sales of devices and sales of Windows operating system licenses to device makers. Industry researcher Gartner estimated that quarterly PC shipments declined 1.3%. During the quarter, Microsoft worked to help customers recover after a flawed update to CrowdStrike security software brought down Windows PCs globally. Microsoft said it would collaborate with BlackRock on an artificial intelligence infrastructure investment fund, with a goal of $30 billion in initial capital. Microsoft’s AI investments continue to be a major focus for investors, as the company builds out its infrastructure and ramps up chip spending to handle heftier workloads. Microsoft is the main investor in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which was valued at $157 billion in a financing round earlier this month. As of Sept. 30, Microsoft had racked up more than $108 billion in finance leases that had not started, which UBS analysts have said might include third-party cloud spending to meet AI demand. At the same time, Microsoft has been spending more cash on property and equipment. In the fiscal first quarter it grew 50% year over year to $14.92 billion. The consensus among analysts polled by Capital IQ was $14.58 billion. As of Wednesday’s close, Microsoft was up about 15% for the year, while the Nasdaq gained around 24% during the same period. Executives will discuss the results and issue guidance on a conference call with analysts starting at 5:30 p.m. ET." MY COMMENT BOOM......another big cap tech BEAT. Looks like the AI is already showing up in earnings and is doing well for these companies.
AND......BOOM....for Meta. A great earnings BEAT for them. BUT.....with the amount of Capital Spending they plan to do over the next year.....the stock is down in the after-hours market. I like that Capital Spending plan....probably some pretty good news for NVDA.
ALL three of the BIG CAP TECH companies that have now reported had BIG BEATS......MSFT, META, and GOOGL. We will get earnings tomorrow from AAPL and AMZN. So far the markets this week are not reflecting any of these good earnings......in general.
YES......it is looking like yet another....EARNINGS BEAT.....that does not matter. This obsessive focus on ......guidance....is ridiculous. Microsoft stock slips more than 3% in extended trading on disappointing revenue guidance https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/microsoft-msft-q1-earnings-report-2025.html
Today is the......SUPREME IDIOCY.....of the short term. BUT......the impact is real and destructive to the markets and business. We have MSFT, META, NVDA, and other ICONIC DOMINANT companies down significantly today.........supposedly over....."guidance". The spin is that these companies are going to have to spend too much money on AI. In spite of .....the same guidance fear-mongering and CRAP......for the past 10-12 quarters......sure as the sun will come up in the morning.......10-12 of the past quarters for these companies have been earnings BEATS. YES.....BEATS. The guidance just about NEVER comes true. Wait and see.......next time around as usual....they will still....BEAT the expectations. This is simply SQUANDERING good earnings. it is simply ignoring the TRUTH of what the company is doing and what they just put up in real numbers. It is ignoring reality. I have yet to see anything like this happen when these companies guide that they are going to spend billions and billions on stock buy-back schemes......which actually DO NOTHING to build and grow the company for the future. Yet CAPITAL SPENDING which is necessary and will drive future company growth.....is skewered. This is EXACTLY where these companies SHOULD BE spending their HUGE pots of extra money....growing the company. AND...this spending will DRIVE future earnings. PUT SIMPLY......the sort of spending being SKEWERED today is literally......THE FUTURE OF THE COMPANY. Investors and shareholders should be CHEERING. The media and others that push this story-line and this CRAP are making earnings irrelevant. They are making FUNDAMENTALS irrelevant. They are creating a disconnect between great earnings and fundamentals and stock prices. This is and should be MONEY IN THE BANK for shareholders......but is it? It probably used to be....but now....it is simply making the markets IRRATIONAL. WELCOME to the......IDIOCRACY. Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink as Meta, Microsoft revive Big Tech's AI spending worries https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-big-techs-ai-spending-worries-133028993.html
HERE.....is the LITANY of NEGATIVITY......as a result of the earnings BEATS......just put up by the greatest businesses in the world. S&P 500 Wipes Out October Gains as Big Tech Hit: Markets Wrap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-equities-fall-us-bond-223754132.html This is just so DISGUSTINGLY STUPID.....I am out of here today......at least for the moment. A total waste of time to look at the markets right now.
I'M BAAAAAAAACK.......briefly. Just to deflate some of the fear-mongering. Key Fed inflation gauge shows price increases match expectations in September https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-...atch-expectations-in-september-123234483.html
MORONS........."we want to see AI results and payoff".......at the same time......"dont spend too much money on building out AI and future profits". Apple to report Q4 earnings as Wall Street looks for signs of Apple Intelligence payoff https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...s-of-apple-intelligence-payoff-122815239.html
AND.....one last comment on the IDIOCY of the markets today....before I take off the rest of the day NOT watching the markets. Here.....today..... we have the.....(INSANE)..... FEAR-MONGERING that the largest companies in the world are going to spend MASSIVE buckets of money on an AI build out. AND....what do we also see at the same time......A HUGE drop in NVDA. The one company that will get the vast majority of that money that is going to be spent. If any stock should be up today on these AI-BUILD-OUT fears.....it is NVDA.
There you go trying to apply rational though to the current stock market... Whenever I see this day to day idiocracy I always think back on this quote: “In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine.Yet, in the long-run, it is a weighing machine”. A little pullback for those with cash on hand to buy some up at a little discount.
I guess the market wanted to be spooky for Halloween. I think it will probably be flat or maybe even drop a little going into elections and hopefully get a little election pop and maybe even a little run up for the Nov 14th earnings call for NVDA. Wishful thinking. I do plan on selling some stocks towards the end of the year to cover taxes for AMD sales made early in the year.
AMZN earnings.....the stock will probably fall by about 700% tomorrow since it is a GOOD BEAT. Amazon stock pops after Q3 earnings beat https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-pops-after-q3-earnings-beat-150027690.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Amazon (AMZN) stock popped as much as 5% after the company reported stronger revenue and earnings per share for the third quarter than Wall Street expected. The company also said it expects revenue in a range of $181.5 billion to $188.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Analysts had forecasted $186.36 billion in revenue for the quarter. Meanwhile, Amazon said Operating income is expected to be between $16.0 billion and $20.0 billion during the fourth quarter. Wall street had projected $17.49 billion. Here’s how Amazon performed on significant metrics in the third quarter compared to Wall Street estimates: Revenue: $158.9 billion vs. $157.29 billion expected ($143.08 billion in Q3 2023) Adjusted earnings per share: $1.43 vs. $1.16 expected ($0.94 in Q3 2023) Amazon Web Services revenue: $27.45 billion vs. $27.49 billion expected ($23.06 billion in Q3 2023) Amazon's earnings follow a volatile few trading sessions for big tech companies amid other earnings reports. A muscular performance from Alphabet on Tuesday provided another challenging backdrop for Amazon. Google exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines and posted impressive gains in its cloud and advertising segments, business lines that compete with Amazon. Meanwhile, Microsoft and Meta (META) had a tougher going. The stocks of both tech giants fell during trading Thursday as investors were spooked by an increase in AI spending, despite both companies beating expectations after the bell on Wednesday. Meta notably said the company expects significant capital expenditures growth in 2025. Amazon stock is the third-best performer when it comes to "Magnificent Seven" percentage gains, adding nearly 30% so far this year — behind only Meta's (META) and Nvidia's (NVDA) enormous strides. MY COMMENT A nice BEAT. Add this one to the pile of GREAT BEATS that the tech companies have provided so far this time around. SHOCKINGLY I cant remember any other time when companies were PUNISHED for investing in their business. BUT.......whatever.
