The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Agree TireSmoke.

    I am not going to let government or a bunch of politicians....control my life. I dont care who they are or what party. I am ALWAYS going to do what is right for me and my family. I am always going to vote for the best situation for my money and life. Regardless of who it is.

    This is why I am fully invested all the time....regardless of who is in power or what government is doing.
     
    #22001 WXYZ, Nov 7, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2024
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  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I have never understood how people (some) believe that their success or failure in life hinges on any political person. In most cases, it is the person standing in front of the mirror. Oh sure, we have had (hopefully) some people in our lives that have contributed and set a good moral compass/influence, but the work, the goals, the motivation, the drive to be successful is our own responsibility.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ok another BIG DAY for my stocks today. EVERY stock in the GREEN. Plus.....seven of nine had a gain between +1.25% and +2.85%. Only two below that range and they did just fine too....CMG +0.90% and PLTR +0.63%.

    I also BEAT the SP500 by 1.30% today. Yes....it is getting boring...another all time high.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Agree completely Smokie.

    I made my own life and breaks......but....I knew I had my family behind me. No one helped me be successful in business. In investing.......my mom was a mentor in my early, young days. But outside of family....no one helped make me the investor that I am.

    YES......in spite of everything you see and hear....it is all about PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY and taking charge of your life. If you are waiting for something or someone to come and push you....you are going to be waiting a long time.

    BUT.....for anyone that is at the starting point in their life and ready to get into investing and get their financial life in order......EVERYONE.....on this thread is ready and willing to help you.....and mentor you. That is one BIG REASON for this thread......to hopefully motivate and encourage others to become investors and understand how to deal with money.

    SO......anyone out there that is ready to start the investing journey.....feel free to post on here with your questions.

    WE HAVE ALL BEEN THERE......AS NEW INVESTORS WITH LITTLE TO NO KNOWLEDGE. In fact...most of us that are older.....it was much more difficult to learn how to invest since there was NO INTERNET.

    SO PLEASE....take control of your life and your money....start your journey as an investor TODAY. JOIN US.
     
    #22005 WXYZ, Nov 7, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2024
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looking forward to another GREAT market day tomorrow. TGIF.....TGIF.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OK....the election is over.....now time to move on.

    Our View of America’s Election and Markets
    The results are in. What now for stocks?

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/our-view-of-americas-election-and-markets

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Note: MarketMinder is non-partisan. We prefer no party nor any candidate and assess events for their economic and market impact only. Stocks are party-blind, rendering partisan bias a major investing pitfall.

    The results are in! Mostly. With a few states still counting, Donald Trump has passed 270 electoral votes, confirming him as America’s 47th president and the new Grover Cleveland. Congressional counting continues, but with the GOP picking up three seats thus far, he will have at least a small Senate majority. The House could go either way, but it probably remains Republican with a similarly thin margin to the present, leaving little room for major legislation to pass—as has been the case over the last two years. Stay tuned as this crystalizes for our assessment of how politics likely affects markets next year. For now, we think the chief factor for markets is this: Uncertainty is already falling, a tailwind we expect to propel stocks through yearend.

    This phenomenon, regular and consistent surrounding presidential elections, has nothing to do with the winner’s personality or party. It is a simple effect of voters’ standard election processing. Markets are party-blind, with no preference for Democrats, Republicans or any candidate. They care about policies, not personalities, and whether legislative risk is higher than expected. Falling uncertainty on this front has aided bull markets under both parties, while sweeping new legislation has contributed to bear markets under both. But investors aren’t neutral, which tees up certain sentiment patterns.

    Something like 40% of the country leans Democratic and 40% Republican. Both sides fear the economic and market consequences if the other side’s candidate wins, believing their agenda will be a net negative. We saw this in spades this time around, with Republican-leaning investors fearing Vice President Kamala Harris’s tax agenda and Democratic-leaning investors nervous over Trump’s tariffs and the prospect of higher deficits. So when it became clear overnight Trump would win, it was immediate falling uncertainty for the 40% of Americans preferring him. The clear result and apparent popular vote victory likely delivered this sooner than many anticipated, perhaps adding to relief.

    But worry extends for many of the 40% preferring Vice President Kamala Harris. For them, uncertainty should fade as House and Senate results solidify and Trump selects his cabinet. As the new administration and Congress shape up, it should become clear he won’t be able to accomplish as much as his supporters hope and others fear. The reality that the president can accomplish very little on his own should sink in gradually, and perhaps subconsciously, helping lift sentiment and stocks as 2024 winds down.

    As we write, stocks are jumping. A nice daily return is always enjoyable, but we wouldn’t read into this. The initial reaction could very well be ahead of itself, as post-election returns tend to moderate. Since 1925, when the election doesn’t occur during a pre-existing bear market, the S&P 500’s average price return between the election and yearend is 3.6%. Averages blend extremes and aren’t predictive, so 3.6% is neither a target nor a ceiling, but keeping measured expectations is wise, always.

    The same wisdom applies to sector and country trends. Short-term reactions don’t foretell what will persist over the coming months and year. Consider 2016: Many thought Trump’s combination of America-first rhetoric and tariffs would favor US stocks over non-US. Yet eurozone and non-US stocks outperformed US stocks from his election through 2017’s close.[ii] We aren’t saying a repeat is coming—just that it is an error to extrapolate from rhetoric to market reality.

    Congressional results are another opportunity for falling uncertainty. The Senate will change hands. Not by much, but we don’t know the final margin yet. So far, Republicans picked up Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. With very little split-ticket voting, there is a good chance they take Nevada and Pennsylvania, though Arizona is likely to remain Democratic. A 54 – 46 Republican majority is a realistic possibility (presuming the independents in Maine and Vermont continue caucusing with the Democrats). This would be bigger than the Democrats had under Biden and slightly increased from Trump’s majority in 2017, but it isn’t a huge margin, and the degree of intraparty gridlock isn’t yet clear.

    Meanwhile, the House isn’t swinging hard either direction. Republicans are closer to a majority for now, but neither side has net gains as we write. Given the close margins in the still-undecided seats, recounts and runoffs are virtually assured. The chamber could go either way, but the majority will probably be narrow. If we get slim Republican edges in both chambers, it wouldn’t technically constitute gridlock. But narrow majorities are the next closest thing to it, as internal dissent can kill major bills. Regardless, as clarity gradually arrives, it should contribute to markets’ continued relief.

    Given the Congressional question marks, all the talk of what a Trump presidency and Trump policies mean for markets is premature. His campaign chatter sets expectations, with big hopes on one side and fears on the other. There are fears of sweeping tariffs and hopes for tax cuts. But most of this hinges on Congress, which is an unknown while the House remains undecided. We can’t know now which provisions of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will get extended, whether tax rates will fall further, and whether the higher state and local tax (SALT) deduction will return. We do know, however, that tax changes have no preset market impact.

    As for tariffs, it is premature to presume Trump’s proposed blanket 10% levy on all imports will become reality. While trade law grants the president authority to enact some tariffs unilaterally on national security and other similar grounds, the provision is narrow. It is difficult to see justification for tariffs on Germany or Australia under national security or currency manipulation grounds, for example. Presuming courts would block an attempt to apply targeted tariffs to tens of thousands of individual goods, a new, blanket tariff would likely require Congress, rendering it uncertain. Regardless, these are two areas where investors will likely welcome clarity as it gradually arrives.

    While stocks greeted Trump’s win warmly, bond markets seemed less pleased. 10-year US Treasury yields surged, underscoring the common view that a Trump presidency will come with higher debt and inflation. Here, too, we wouldn’t read much into it. Bond markets, while less volatile than stocks overall, aren’t immune to sentiment swings. As the dust settles, we think pre-existing trends likely continue.

    Since the Fed cut rates in September, long rates have risen, to little notice. Not necessarily because of politics, but likely because of the common view that rate cuts are stimulus and, all else equal, bring faster growth and more inflation. If markets view Trump’s win as positive for the economy, these trends probably continue—good for stocks, but not consistent with falling long rates. That said, it is likely a mistake to get carried away and extrapolate this into much higher long rates.

    Again, where stocks go in 2025 will depend on a host of factors, including the degree of gridlock—not to mention traditional economic and sentiment drivers. Bonds, too, will depend on more than politics. The multitude of factors affecting returns aren’t yet in focus, so stay tuned for our thoughts on next year. But it is premature to weigh that today.

    In the meantime, we see stocks rising through yearend at least as Congress and the cabinet take shape and uncertainty keeps falling. Volatility is always possible, for any or no reason, but overall, we think most drivers point positively now."

    MY COMMENT

    Obviously history show us that lower taxes, less regulation and less bureaucratic interference in business and the economy is a winning formula for investors.

    It will be the BROAD STROKES.....the big picture.....that drives stocks going forward. Stocks and business are not going to be all caught up in the micro political details of Washington DC.

    The PRIMARY drivers of business and stocks will be the....general business environment....going forward. If that environment is a positive tailwind for business, stocks will boom. If it is a punishing and hostile environment for business stocks will struggle....but...probably continue up since that is the strong current market BIAS in the bull market.

    I strongly DOUBT that we will be seeing a hostile environment for business going forward.....for a while.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    While I had my head down reading and scanning the business news of the day.....the big averages have turned GREEN. Not by much....but it is a start.

    The election is over. We have out November rate cut in the bag now. Stocks and the markets seem HAPPY with where things are right now. It is likely that tax rates will NOT go up....especially the critically important Capital Gains Tax.

    Looking good for the markets.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is a little premature since the week is not over yet. We have an entire day to go......but:

    S&P 500 eyes 6,000 mark as Wall Street eyes best week in a year

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...treet-eyes-best-week-in-a-year-143118922.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks hovered near record highs on Friday, with the Nasdaq lagging as post-election euphoria ebbed and China's latest stimulus plan fell flat.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped roughly 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.3%.

    Stocks drifted higher to end to a stellar week of gains driven by optimism that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost the economy. But the initial "Trump trade" rush appears to be fizzling out as Wall Street questions whether Trump will be able to push through his ambitions policies. The dollar (DX=F) and Treasury yields, for instance, have given up many of their post-election gains.

    Disappointment over China's new fiscal stimulus also dampened market spirits, putting pressure on oil prices, the yuan and local stocks. The $1.4 trillion plan to refinance local government debt left investors unconvinced of its potential to spur a faltering economy.

    Even so, Wall Street major gauges are still on track for strong weekly wins after racking up more records on Thursday as the Federal Reserve delivered the expected interest-rate cut. The S&P 500 is closing in on crossing the 6,000 level for the first time.

    On the corporate front, Sony (SONY) shares popped in premarket trading after the PlayStation maker posted a 73% jump in quarterly profit.

    Meanwhile Paramount Global (PARA) reported third quarter earnings on Friday that showed further improvement in its streaming business it gets ready to combine with Skydance Media.
    • Major averages drift higher, Nvidia officially part of the Dow

    • US stocks flirted around their record highs on Friday as Nvidia (NVDA) following the latest rate cut announced by Federal Reserve.

      Market euphoria following a Trump White House victory seemed to drift as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was little changed. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.3%

      On Thursday the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut, a move widely anticipated by the markets.

      On Friday AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) replaced semiconductor giant Intel (INTC) as one of the Dow's 30 components.


      The new addition should give the blue-chip index an added boost. Intel shares are down roughly 45% year-to-date while Nvidia is up more than 200%.

      Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) also replaced Dow Inc. (DOW) as one of the components of the major average."
    MY COMMENT

    BOOM....bring it on....SP500 6000.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Even though Monday is Veterans day.....the stock markets will be open.

    For me next week will be earnings from my company....HD. HD will report before the open on Tuesday. After that I will be waiting for two earnings reports NVDA and COST.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOTHING going on today. Everyone is in the process of disconnecting from all the election turmoil and drama. I knew this data came out today....but for the most part I dont see anything in the media....they seem to be ignoring it.

    Consumer Sentiment Rose 3.5% in Early November

    https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/consumer-sentiment-rose-35-in-early-november

    MY COMMENT

    Hopefully good news for the Holiday shopping season. The retail data will be one of the major economic events to end the year.

    BUT this info as an investing indicator.....WORTHLESS.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have not looked at my account but I know from the TICKER that I have five stocks up and four down right now. Probably about flat right now.

    I would be happy with a flat close today....with the big gains this week.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A very good week for me in spite of a small loss today. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.51% today.

    MOVING ON....with big gains this week (see below).
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The week that was:

    DOW year to date +16.64%
    DOW five days +4.72%

    SP500 year to date +26.41%
    SP500 five days +4.72%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +27.71%
    NASDAQ 100 five days +5.62%

    NASDAQ year to date +30.62%
    NASDAQ five days +5.85%

    RUSSELL year to date +19.16%
    RUSSELL five days +8.70%

    As for "ME".....I ended the week with my year to date gain for my entire portfolio at.....+69.00%. Last week I was at.....+58.99% year to date for my entire portfolio. NICE.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.
     
  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    What a week in the markets. We notched up another nice one again.
    Thinking back on all of the speculations, predictions, and all of those things that were so certain to happen. There have been a ton of distractions, but most of us just watched the show and stayed on course.
    No, it will not sway the pundits and experts from continuing to guess and spill their advice to many investors going forward. Of course, we know this and it will continue for the remainder of our investing time.
    As I usually say as we draw closer to the end of the year. It is always a good idea to think about your plan and evaluate it. Think about the present and even look at your longer goals. It will help you in the long run to manage your portfolio with a clear mind.
     
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  17. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Member

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    So what are we thinking about Tesla now? This is a crazy rise.

    My Tesla stock sale turned out to be horrendous timing lol. The first time I EVER sell anything and I see a 35% + increase in the following 2.5 months. I guess you have to laugh.
     
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  18. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    It's mental, absolute hype.
    I expect the stock price to go down at the same pace as it went up.
     
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  19. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I think the board is kind of divided on owning TSLA. I think most of us find the company interesting and Elon Musk is most certainly a once in a lifetime innovator. I just feel the stock is two dependent on the actions of 1 person. All that stock needs is one tweet and it's moving. While this probably gets ironed out over the long haul I just don't like the instability. Also if the company is doing great and Elon has everyones panties in the bunch the stock gets punished.

    I would treat the sale like any other. You made a decision with the data you had on hand. Own it. Move on. There is plenty of money to be made elseware. NVDA ER is on the 14th. PLTR is ripping. Heck, the good old S&P500 isn't doing half bad!
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin booming. Markets booming. A good way to honor our VETERANS.
     

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