The Long Term Investor

I like this little article.

Bullish or Bearish, Long-Term Forecasting Is a Folly
What will stocks do in the next several years? You can’t know now.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...h-or-bearish-longterm-forecasting-is-a-folly#

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 is clocking round numbers and record highs, corporate earnings are growing, and there is ample talk of a pro-business White House adding tailwinds for years—buy! So say some. But every action has an equal and opposite reaction, so of course there is also a loud chorus saying valuations are too high and returns for the next several years will be weak. Who is right? In our view, none of them. We are bullish for now, but long-term forecasts are a fool’s errand. Beware.

Whether bullish or bearish, none of the factors people cite can help you predict where stocks will go over the next 5, 10 or more years. Stocks, like all assets, move on supply and demand. Forecasting stocks in the long run therefore requires knowing how stock supply will evolve, which is impossible. A multitude of factors affects business creation, not to mention the decisions to go public, conduct stock-based mergers, buy back shares and accept buyouts or otherwise go private. It depends not just on regulations and the political backdrop, but also the economic environment (which is a lot less influenced by politics than either major US party claims), the principals’ appetite for risk taking, market sentiment and so much more.

Demand, too, is difficult to pin down beyond the next 30 months or so. And none of the factors people cite now have a repeat, predictable effect on it. Tax cuts and other supposedly pro-business policies? Nice in theory, but not uniformly bullish. If hopes get too high and the changes are smaller than expected, disappointment may reign. If changes pass narrowly, it could simply extend uncertainty, courtesy of the prospect that a future Congress could just change things back. Ping, pong, flip, flop, stocks don’t like such uncertainty.

Similarly, with valuations—whether traditional price-to-earnings ratios or the cyclically adjusted version (price versus 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings)—it seems logical to presume high means “pricey” and “sure to drop or disappoint.” But market history is rife with examples of seemingly pricey stocks and indexes getting even more expensive as investors become ever-more willing to pay more for future profits. We also have myriad examples of stocks getting less “expensive” even as share prices keep rising, thanks to growing earnings. We also have the inverse, where cheap stocks keep getting cheaper. It is a hodge podge and yields only one logical conclusion: Valuations aren’t a timing tool. Not in the short run. Not in the longer term.

Even knowing which of these camps is right about the next several years wouldn’t help you now. Stocks are cyclical. There are bull markets and bear markets (deep, long declines of -20% or worse, typically with fundamental causes). One forecast making the rounds Monday morning envisioned the S&P 500 price index hitting 10,000 by yearend 2030 (it hit 6,000 today, making this a forecast for a 66.7% price return in the next 5 or 6 years). Sounds nice! But it is entirely possible the index could get there with a nasty bear market striking at some point within the window. Or, if the weak-returns crowd is right, it could very well be because a bear market struck at the exact wrong/right time to make 10-year returns look meh. In both cases, we would have good years and bad years. None of the rhetoric or tools in headlines now tell you when the good and bad years will strike.

Don’t get us wrong. Long-term returns matter. They are why we all invest! But the long endeavor of investing is all about navigating the ups and downs along the way. In a decade with lean cumulative returns, that means maximizing the likelihood of participating in the bull markets along the way and not letting the bad times dissuade you from trying to reap the good. And in a decade with strong cumulative returns, investing is all about … maximizing the likelihood of participating in the bull markets along the way and not letting the bad times dissuade you from trying to reap the good. Same thing! Bull markets and bear markets.

Ultimately, what matters most for investors is the cumulative return over their entire time horizon and whether it is sufficient to meet their goals. For most folks, that means their entire life expectancy—plus more if the assets are also meant for a spouse, heirs or charitable bequest. Returns over a short window within this long stretch are largely arbitrary. Take any investor’s portfolio over 20, 30 years or more, and you can probably cherry-pick a 10-year run with subpar cumulative returns and a great six-year window. They may even overlap, if you have brutal two-year bear markets sandwiching a stellar six-year bull market.

We get that sequencing matters to folks taking cash flows and to those with short time horizons, so we won’t write this all off as trivia. But in the grand scheme of things, the impossibility of forecasting far-future returns means it comes quite close."

MY COMMENT

Anyone that has been investing for ten years or more knows the above is true. We all have expectations and thoughts about where the markets are going. BUT.....how often do our predictions come true?

There is no way to anticipate what the markets are going to do and why. there are just way too many factors that come into play......and....most of those factors are impossible to know in advance.

So.....that is why I simply stay invested all the time. ALSO....due to the FACT that the SP500 will be positive any one year at least 70% of the time.

i do trust and invest according to the academic research and what it shows about various investor behaviors and.......PROBABILITY.

 

Well we got the CPI and PPI out of the way this week as well as some jobs data. GOOD. I dont want this sort of stuff to engulf and detract from the NVDA earnings next week. We have seen way too many great earnings this time around made irrelevant by events and news items and guidance. It is a total WASTE of good earnings when this happens.

US wholesale inflation picks up slightly in sign that some price pressures remain elevated

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wholesale-inflation-picks-slightly-134034716.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale prices in the United States rose last month, remaining low but suggesting that the American economy has yet to completely vanquish inflationary pressure.

Thursday's report from the Labor Department showed that its producer price index — which tracks inflation before it hits consumers — rose 0.2% from September to October, up from a 0.1% gain the month before. Compared with a year earlier, wholesale prices were up 2.4%, accelerating from a year-over-year gain of 1.9% in September.

A 0.3% increase in services prices drove the October increase. Wholesale goods prices edged up 0.1% after falling the previous two months. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to bounce around from month to month, so-called core wholesale prices rose 0.3 from September and 3.1% from a year earlier. The readings were about what economists had expected.

Since peaking in mid-2022, inflation has fallen more or less steadily. But average prices are still nearly 20% higher than they were three years ago — a persistent source of public exasperation that led to Donald Trump's defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris in last week's presidential election and the return of Senate control to Republicans.

The October report on producer prices comes a day after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.6% last month from a year earlier, a sign that inflation at the consumer level might be leveling off after having slowed in September to its slowest pace since 2021. Most economists, though, say they think inflation will eventually resume its slowdown.

Inflation has been moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% year-over-year target, and the central bank’s inflation fighters have been satisfied enough with the improvement to cut their benchmark interest rate twice since September — a reversal in policy after they raised rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023.

Trump’s election victory has raised doubts about the future path of inflation and whether the Fed will continue to cut rates. In September, the Fed all but declared victory over inflation and slashed its benchmark interest rate by an unusually steep half-percentage point, its first rate cut since March 2020, when the pandemic was hammering the economy. Last week, the central bank announced a second rate cut, a more typical quarter-point reduction.

Though Trump has vowed to force prices down, in part by encouraging oil and gas drilling, some of his other campaign vows — to impose massive taxes on imports and to deport millions of immigrants working illegally in the United States — are seen as inflationary by mainstream economists. Still, Wall Street traders see an 82% likelihood of a third rate cut when the Fed next meets in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The producer price index released Thursday can offer an early look at where consumer inflation might be headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably healthcare and financial services, flow into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.

Stephen Brown at Capital Economics wrote in a commentary that higher wholesale airfares, investment fees and healthcare prices in October would push core PCE prices higher than the Fed would like to see. But he said the increase wouldn’t be enough “to justify a pause (in rate cuts) by the Fed at its next meeting in December.″

Inflation began surging in 2021 as the economy accelerated with surprising speed out of the pandemic recession, causing severe shortages of goods and labor. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to a 23-year high. The resulting much higher borrowing costs were expected to tip the United States into recession. It didn’t happen. The economy kept growing, and employers kept hiring. And, for the most part, inflation has kept slowing."

MY COMMENT

AND.......here is the other economic news today....not that this sort of short term data matters.

US weekly jobless claims fall; unemployment rolls shrink

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-133847631.html

MY COMMENT

Monthly data is bad enough....but weekly data.....what a joke. AND....we have seen that this employment data is probably the WORST of any government economic data.....totally worthless and inaccurate.

 

Of course it would not be a market day without some mention of NVDA.

Nvidia stock has 25% upside as it approaches an iPhone moment with its Blackwell chip, analyst says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-25-upside-approaches-034458011.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia has rocketed to all-time highs, but investors should hold on a while longer as the company's next-generation Blackwell GPU will be a watershed moment, a note from Melius Research this week said.

Ben Reitzes, a managing director at Melius, bumped his Nvidia price target to $185, representing potential upside of 26% from current levels.

Reitzes believes Nvidia is approaching its Apple iPhone moment, and that selling now would be akin to selling Apple stock after it released the first generation iPhone.

"It's similar to the feeling around product cycles with Apple's iPhone some 15 years ago, just on a different scale. So, while it sounds strange, giving up on Nvidia here after its hit — Hopper — is like giving up on Apple at iPhone 1 or 2," Reitzes said, referring to the current generation Hopper chip.

Nvidia stock has been a tear ever since OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022. Since then, Nvidia has soared nearly 800% to become the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of over $3.5 trillion.

Nvidia's Hopper and upcoming Blackwell GPU chips represent the foundation of artificial intelligence advancements, which are powering everything from AI chatbots like ChatGPT to text-to-video and self-driving cars.

"Big clouds, sovereigns and large enterprises are still more likely to invest more in this 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity," Reitzes said.

And Nvidia's enviable position means big profits are in store for its investors, according to the note.

"We are not only excited about Blackwell driving upside to the street in 2025 — and Rubin in 2026 — but we are also increasingly optimistic that gross margins can snap back firmly into the mid-70s by mid-FY26," Reitzes said.

Nvidia could earn more than $5 per share in profits by 2027, which "looks conservative now," according to the note. Reitzes increased his revenue and profit estimates for 2025 through 2027 for Nvidia, citing higher gross margins and continued investments from cloud hyperscalers.

And at those profit levels, Nvidia stock looks attractive from a valuation standpoint.

"Even with a decelerating growth rate on huge numbers, Nvidia's CY2025 PEG ratio stands at about 0.8x on our estimates. This ratio is 33% less than Broadcom's and the lowest in the Mag 7 by a wide margin," Reitzes said.

Nvidia stock is up 197% year-to-date and trading about 2% below its record high of $149.77 per share."

MY COMMENT

LOL....I am NOT an analyst.....although I play one on this thread........sometimes.

My.....magic eight-ball........view of NVDA over the next 2-3 years........+250%. AND....with that "guess" I am holding back and being conservative.

 

Speaking of NVDA......looking at my two accounts I have some hefty gains in the stock.

Oldest shares show a gain of over +1000% in one of my two primary accounts. In this particular account due to adding shares over many years the gain for all shares is +354%.

In my other primary account......the total long term gain that I have in NVDA is +537%. The earliest shares in this account are at.....+1100%.

Where are you at TireSmoke with your oldest shares? Probably way above my gains above.

 

Right now I have a small gain to start the day. Mostly due to NVDA being up at the moment. i have four stocks UP and five stocks DOWN.

 

just playing with some data in an OLD IRA account.

My sibling has an old IRA account that I have never messed with. Up till August 12, 2024.....it was siting 100% in the SP500 Index.

I have been managing her BIG brokerage account for a long time....but have ignored the IRA in the past. On August 12 of this year I decided that the IRA account was too big to just let it all sit in the SP500. It had gotten to the point of having multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars in the account........over $200,000....but...below $400,000.

So on August 12, 2024.....I sold out a big chunk of the SP500 Index and put ALL the funds into my typical nine stocks.....all in all at once.

Fast forward three months. NOW....48% of the account is in my typical nine stocks.......52% of the account is in the SP500.

Over that three months here is how each position has done:

GOOGL +6.03%
AMZN +26.40%
AAPL +4.98%
CMG +9.07%
COST +8.26%
HD +16.55%
MSFT +4.82%
NVDA +40.00%
PLTR +97.00%

In this particular account and also in my kids account and their spouses account.....CMG and PLTR are full size positions.

In my brokerage accounts they are STILL SMALL positions. Primarily due to not having any money to boost them up....I dont want to sell anything else to add to CMG and PLTR. BUT...eventually I will get a chance to add to them when I have some new money for the accounts.

The total stock portion of the IRA account above has a gain of +27% since august 12, 2024. All in all a very satisfactory move in this account. Although three months is still......THE SHORT TERM. So nothing to write home about....yet.

I suspect that my sibling has at least a 20 year life expectancy....over that time is when the real GAINS will come.

I am posting this as yet another example of "MY" investing process......and thinking.

 

BUMMER.....the markets have now...."weenied out". Yes that is an investing term of art.

I assume this is why:

Fed does not need to 'be in a hurry' to lower rates: Powell

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...-a-hurry-to-lower-rates-powell-200004723.html

 

TSLA is now down by $46.52 from the high this week.

Tesla stock falls 4% as Trump trade fades, EV tax credits come under threat

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...-tax-credits-come-under-threat-170918953.html

 

Personally I would like to see them restore the ability of EVERYONE....regardless of taking the standard deduction or the amount......to deduct property taxes on their primary home....on their taxes.....in place of the credit for buying an EV which goes to the most well-to-do segment of society.

Exclusive-Trump's transition team aims to kill Biden EV tax credit

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-trumps-transition-team-aims-172748188.html

 

Thank you POWELL for tanking the markets. Another small loss for me today. BUT....I did manage to beat the SP500 by 0.40%. Money in the bank.

Moving on to Friday and next week NVDA day on Wednesday. I am sure NVDA will put up very nice numbers.....but....am not counting on the stock to be UP as a result.

 

I like this little article.

Is US Inflation Normal? You Decide.
October’s inflation rate looks rather typical to us.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/is-us-inflation-normal-you-decide

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up in October, inching from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% as rents, used car and car insurance prices offset continued goods deflation. Robbed of an upcoming election through which to interpret the data, headlines turned to another familiar trope, arguing inflation clearly isn’t yet back to normal and the Fed must tread lightly with rate cuts. Yet if you compare this report to CPI’s very long history, inflation looks stunningly normal—probably a big reason markets have long since moved on. It is high time, in our view, pundits’ narratives did the same.

The thesis inflation remains abnormally jumpy seemingly rests on two factors. One, the inflation rate rose year over year. And two, the Fed’s target rate is 2.0% y/y. But the inflation rate has wiggled around through CPI’s entire history, which stretches way back to 1913 (making 1914 the starting point for year-over-year data). As Exhibit 1 shows, while the biggest peaks and valleys loom large in memory, the inflation rate is all over the place even during more benign stretches. And neither the wiggles up nor the wiggles down are inherently predictive of big shifts.

Exhibit 1: A Very Long Look at US Inflation


Source: St. Louis Fed, as of 11/13/2024. Year-over-year percent change in CPI (not seasonally adjusted), January 1914 – November 2024.

As for the Fed’s target, using that as a signpost for “normal” seems suspect. One, it is arbitrary. Two, it has been official since only 2012. Three, the target is for the inflation rate to average 2.0% over time, which could frankly mean anything—and a 2.6% rate could easily be part of a long-term average of 2.0%. And four, the targeted rate is based on an entirely different inflation measure: the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The CPI basket comes from a household survey. The PCE basket comes from a business survey. They weight goods and services differently. CPI narrows to urban consumers’ purchases. PCE incorporates all goods bought by or on behalf of all consumers, even rural ones, including purchasers such as Medicare and employer-provided insurance. These may seem technical and academic, but they underscore that CPI and PCE are two different things, so using the Fed’s target for one as a judgment of the other is just weird.

Anyway, “normal” is an opinion, and you are welcome to choose the parameters you would like. We think statistics help. You could use the average inflation rate, if you like, as a guide. The simple arithmetic mean—which you might know as the plain old “average” —of all CPI inflation rates since 1914 is 3.3%.[ii] Or, you could use the geometric mean, which is the annualized inflation rate—the average rate at which prices compounded over time. That happens to be a tad lower, 3.2%.[iii] In both cases, October’s rate is below-average.

But we don’t think this is such a great way to do it, because averages are made up of extremes. Just as the S&P 500’s average annualized return of around 10% isn’t its normal annual return, the average inflation rate isn’t the typical inflation rate. You could get closer to typical by looking at the mode (the most frequent occurrence), which is 3.0%, but in a dataset so varied that tends to be meaningless, too.[iv]

Thankfully, there is also the median, which is the point where there are an equal number of results above and below. We like this better than average because it isn’t as skewed by outlying results. The median CPI inflation rate is 2.7%. That is nearly bang-on October’s inflation rate, which would make October’s rate statistically pretty … normal?

There is a larger fallacy at work, too: the notion that the Fed can fine-tune the inflation rate with small interest rate tweaks. Theoretically, Fed rates influence the speed with which money flows through the economy at a lag, with lending being the main force driving that flow. Fed rates aim primarily to affect banks’ funding costs. Raising or lowering those would—theoretically—reduce or widen the gap between costs and loan rates (revenues), which translates to shrinking or raising profits on new loans. Bigger profits generally make banks more willing to take risks and lend to a wider swath of borrowers.

The theory here is all grand, and it is why the yield curve has such a strong history as a leading economic indicator. But it works less well when banks’ funding costs are divorced from Fed rates, which they have been for years thanks to a massive savings glut. With so much liquidity sloshing around, banks don’t need to pay more to attract deposits. So their costs stayed low while loan rates rose with long rates, and on a nominal basis, US lending didn’t contract during Fed rate hikes. In our view, this makes it tough to find real-world evidence that rate hikes did much to tame inflation. We see a better argument that the economy (and supply) simply grew enough to absorb all the excess money created during COVID.

Or, to view this differently, consider the items elevating CPI. “Rent of primary shelter” is well known to lag new leases, which have moderated a great deal. Owner’s equivalent rent—the amount a homeowner would pay to rent their own home—has a lot to do with mortgage rates, which tie to long rates, which often defy Fed moves. Used car prices are up because car prices in general have been a pain in the neck for years, tied mostly to supply issues and regulatory quirks that discourage companies from selling economical models on our shores. This drove demand for “cheaper” used cars. The latter also affects car insurance prices, which reflect higher maintenance and vehicle replacement costs.

The Fed can’t do anything about this with short-term interest rates. Keeping rates higher for longer won’t suddenly inspire some car companies to stop subsidizing loss-making electric vehicles with higher-priced “luxury” internal combustion models. Nor will they suddenly bring cheaper compact or midsized pickup trucks back to the American market (friends overseas, we are jealous of your compact truck selection). The economy is just too diverse, complex and dynamic for the Fed to be able to pull an interest-rate lever to control prices.

Anyway, we think this all points to why, while headlines continue making CPI wiggles a thing, markets have long since let them fade into the scenery. Stocks know, even if investors don’t consciously think about it, that a 2.6% (or whatever) inflation rate has minimal bearing on how earnings and revenues shape up relative to expectations over the next 3 – 30 months. We have nearly 110 years’ worth of inflation history to prove it. It isn’t an extreme rate. It is the kind of normal rate modelers use to inform long-term straight-line projections.

Inflation was a big deal to sentiment, and therefore stocks, when it was at an extreme two years ago. We get that the scars are still a bit fresh, and we don’t dismiss that. Nor do we dismiss the painful fact that while the inflation rate has cooled, price levels remain high. We feel it when we buy groceries, just like you. But stocks are cool-headed and cold-hearted. They moved on. Headlines touting otherwise are fighting the last war."

MY COMMENT

YES.......inflation right now is totally normal......in spit of what all the opinion writers, economists and other MORONS try to tell you.

 

I have seen plenty of fear-mongering about the consumer lately.......IGNORE it all.

October retail sales top estimates, September spending revised sharply higher

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/octo...pending-revised-sharply-higher-133733716.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer.

Retail sales rose 0.4% in October. Economists had expected a 0.3% spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in September were revised up to a 0.8% increase from a prior reading that showed a 0.4% increase in the month, according to Census Bureau data. Auto sales drove a majority of the gains in October's reading with sales in the sector rising 1.6%.

October sales, excluding auto and gas, rose just 0.1%, below consensus estimates for a 0.3% increase. The control group in Tuesday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product reading for the quarter, decreased by 0.1% in October, below estimates for 0.3% increase.

But both categories saw large revisions for September sales, though. Revisions showed sales in both groups increased 1.2% in September, up from a previous reading of 0.7% growth.

"The underlying weakness in October’s retail sales was accompanied by an upward revision to September’s gain, suggesting that consumption growth is still going strong," Capital Economics North America economist Bradley Saunders wrote in a note to clients Friday morning.

Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote that Friday's retail sales data show "that consumers maintained upbeat spending momentum" at the start of the fourth quarter. This projects for another "solid" quarter of US economic growth to end 2024, Bostjancic wrote.

The report comes as investors continue to closely monitor the health of the US economy as the Federal Reserve's dials back its restrictive interest rate policy. To date, economic data has largely been better-than-expected, a welcome sign for investors as markets shift to accept the Fed may not slash interest as quickly as initially hoped.

In prepared remarks on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."

Powell added, "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

Friday's data also wraps a busy week of economic news.

Earlier this week, two reports showed price increases made little progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation during the month of October. The releases have raised debate over how much the FeD will cut interest rates in 2025, and have started to stir discussion about whether the central bank will cut rates again at all in 2024.

As of Friday morning, markets were pricing in a nearly 55% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on Dec. 18, down from a 72% chance seen on Thursday, per the CME FedWatch Tool."

MY COMMENT

Those September revisions are....MASSIVE. How in the world can this data be off by close to 100%.

What a HUGE joke on people that read and rely on this garbage. Kind of gives me a little view of the competence of our government and the economic class that puts out this CRAP.

 

The markets today are being SCREWED by the Powell comments yesterday........whatever.

BUT.....I prefer to focus on this little item:

Elon Musk’s xAI raising up to $6 billion to purchase 100,000 Nvidia chips for Memphis data center

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/15/elo...000-nvidia-chips-for-memphis-data-center.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI is raising up to $6 billion at a $50 billion valuation, according to CNBC’s David Faber.

Sources told Faber that the funding, which should close early next week, is a combination of $5 billion expected from sovereign funds in the Middle East and $1 billion from other investors, some of whom may want to re-up their investments.

The money will be used to acquire 100,000 Nvidia chips, per sources familiar with the situation. Tesla’s Full Self Driving is expected to rely on the new Memphis supercomputer.

Musk’s AI startup, which he announced in July 2023, seeks to “understand the true nature of the universe,” according to its website. Last November, X.AI released a chatbot called Grok, which the company said was modeled after “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.” The chatbot debuted with two months of training and had real-time knowledge of the internet, the company claimed at the time.

With Grok, X.AI aims to directly compete with companies including ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which Musk helped start before a conflict with co-founder Sam Altman led him to depart the project in 2018. It will also be vying with Google’s Bard technology and Anthropic’s Claude chatbot.

Now that Donald Trump is President-elect, Elon Musk is beginning to actively work with the new administration on its approach to AI and tech more broadly, as part of Trump’s inner circle in recent weeks.

Trump plans to repeal President Biden’s executive order on AI, according to his campaign platform, stating that it “hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology” and that “in its place, Republicans support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing.”"

MY COMMENT

BOOM.......this will be a nice transfer of $6BILLION to NVDA. PLUS.....just a drop in the bucket for NVDA.

 

HERE is the other impact of the POWELL comments.

10-year Treasury yield jumps on week as Powell says Fed not in a hurry to keep cutting rates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/15/us-...tors-digest-powells-comments-await-data-.html

MY COMMENT

This guy is not that much of a MORON....he knew exactly how the markets would react to his comments.

 

That is it for me today.....way too much short term IDIOCY in the markets today. Not actually the markets.....but....Powell, the FED, the distorted economic data, and the financial professionals now discounting the December rate cut to around 58%.

BROTHER.......I have better things to do with my time today

 

Yep Smokie.....if I had not sold this stock to get money for more NVDA..... I would have sold it well before it got to this point.

I wonder how many people that now own it are having problems letting go and simply selling it.

This stock is a good example of why it is often the best thing to do when a stock is tanking.....to SELL ALL and just take the loss. Riding a stock like this down with hopes that it will come back later is crazy....but...happens often since investors can not bring themselves to take a loss.

I would much rather take a loss on a stock like this....and....make a lateral move into something else.

 

A LOSS for me today. At least HD and PLTR were GREEN. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 1.08%.

I have to head out to a rehearsal so no time to do the week end numbers at the moment.

 

The week that was:

DOW year to date +15.19%
DOW five days (-1.39%)

SP500 year to date +23.78%
SP500 five days (-2.30%)

NASDAQ 100 year to date +23.34%
NASDAQ 100 five days (-3.65%)

NASDAQ year to date +26.51%
NASDAQ five days (-3.49%)

RUSSELL year to date +14.46%
RUSSELL five days (-4.47%)

My week looked about like the averages above.....a nice loss. I appear to be in good company. At the close of the week today my entire portfolio was at +64.68% year to date. Last week at the Friday close my entire portfolio was at +69.00%.