The Long Term Investor

As usual the inflation picture is a mixed situation.

Some Perspective on Falling (Yes, Falling) Prices
Prices for many goods are falling—but why doesn’t it feel like relief at the register?

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ome-perspective-on-falling-yes-falling-prices

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Don’t look now, but some of your favorite household goods and eats are cheaper entering the holiday season. Prices for bacon, televisions and outerwear are all down from October 2023. Yet while selected prices may be down year over year, many of these categories remain well above prepandemic levels. This largely reflects what many consumers see every day … a confirmation inflation was painful … and today’s price levels still seemingly sting. However, we think there is important investing perspective unlocked by taking a little closer look at prices’ movements and levels.

Inflation has dominated headlines over the past several years—understandably. Households paid higher prices for a litany of everyday items, from gasoline to eggs. While economists note inflation is easing, consumer prices overall remain elevated. What gives?

As we wrote last year, the distinction is semantic. Literally. Inflation is a rate of change. We have had disinflation since US CPI peaked in June 2022, which is a technical term for a slower rate of rising prices. Prices across the economy are still rising—just not as quickly as they were in 2021 and 2022. Not even close! The level bakes in all the cumulative inflation.

But the inflation rate is also a composite of price movements in hundreds of goods and services. At any time, some individual prices will rise and some fall, at varying rates, often due to supply and demand trends. So it isn’t a surprise prices for many high-profile items have fallen over the past 12 months … especially as overall inflation cools toward normal.

CNBC runs a monthly deflation breakdown (with a nifty graphic), and October’s notables include gasoline (-12.4% y/y), telephone hardware, (-9.6%), and, yes, turkey (-3.9%). The major driver behind these falling prices: the US economy’s return to normal after pandemic-driven disruptions skewed economic activity, from roiling supply chains to altering typical spending patterns.

That said, while some prices may be down from a year or two ago, the large majority remain above their prepandemic levels. Exhibits 1 and 2 highlight some high-profile goods prices that soared during pandemic times—and haven’t returned to prior levels.

Exhibit 1: While Some Prices Are Falling Over the Past Couple Years…


Source: FactSet, as of 11/18/2024. CPI – All, CPI – Gasoline (All Types), CPI – Eggs, CPI – Used Cars and Trucks, CPI – Beef and Veal, indexed to 100 on 12/31/2021, December 2021 – October 2024.

Exhibit 2: … They Remain Well Above Prepandemic Levels


Source: FactSet, as of 11/18/2024. CPI – All, CPI – Gasoline (All Types), CPI – Eggs, CPI – Used Cars and Trucks, CPI – Beef and Veal, indexed to 100 on 12/31/2018, December 2018 – October 2024.

This isn’t to say no category will return to 2019 price levels ever again. Heck, the BLS’s data show some categories, like men’s and women’s formal wear, are already below those points. As that example illustrates, sector-specific supply and demand dynamics play a big role. Beyond that work-from-home-influenced trend, take oil and metal prices. They tend to be less connected to the macroeconomic backdrop and more influenced by commodity “supercycles”—so prices may vacillate much more sharply depending on whether there is a supply glut and/or gangbusters demand.

But a few examples of falling prices notwithstanding, overall, prepandemic prices aren’t coming back—no matter which party or politician is in office. Many seem to harbor hope the incoming Trump administration will “fix” the high prices. We caution against that thinking, and our reasoning has nothing to do with political preferences—as always, MarketMinder is nonpartisan and prefers no political party over another.

Getting overall prices back to prepandemic levels would take deep deflation—specifically, a cumulative -16.9% price decline to return to December 2020’s price levels (which preceded the 2021 – 2022 price surge).[ii] Sound good? Prices’ falling economywide is often a side effect of major economic issues (e.g., a big recession and a huge credit crunch). A nearly -17% deflation would be massive—arguably witnessed only in the early 1920s and 1929 – 1933 contractions. 2008’s global financial crisis saw some deflation, but nothing remotely close to this degree.

Today, the drivers behind the recent bout of inflation have eased. Remember, inflation is a monetary phenomenon—the case of too much money chasing too few goods and services. The supply shock that knocked goods and services has mostly passed at this point. After money supply spiked in 2020 when central bankers pumped in new money to buoy demand, the US has worked a lot of that excess out. The upshot: Inflation, like other economic measures, is returning to normal.

The way Western economies have historically overcome inflation? Wage growth. It takes time, but rising wages eventually restore households’ purchasing power. This is underway today, albeit at a lag. Now, this doesn’t mean everyone’s financial situation is improving at the same rate, especially since individual living costs and income streams vary. But overall, inflation’s bite isn’t as severe as it was a couple years ago—a reality investors benefit from recognizing."

MY COMMENT

YES....we have seen a lot of wage growth and that is helping consumers to deal with the higher prices. I also agree that for the most part the higher prices that we have now are not going to come down significantly. They are now the new baseline.

Consumers will continue to suffer with the high prices on many items.....but...over time they will adapt to this NEW NORMAL.

 

We had a good open today with excitement as NVDA hit a new all time intro-day high. But it soon faded. Now the markets are fighting back and trying to reestablish the GREEN of the open.

A mixed market day today.

Basically in the end....the NVDA earnings have not impacted the markets at all. As Smokie said above....the earnings are MONEY IN THE BANK for long term investors. The markets were disrespectful about the NVDA forward guidance.

I am not....with what they are projecting NVDA will remain the most DOMINANT company in the world for a long time. Any other company putting up the sort of growth that they are currently doing and will do in the future would be lionized.

How JADED we have all become....at least some of us. I am seeing a good amount of commentary lately that NVDA is a BUY at the current price and I happen to agree. In fact I see it as a....STRONG BUY.

 

Of course my view above is based on being an actual....long term investor. NOT a trader or speculator or pirate.

 

Here is the markets today as we move toward the end of the week. NOTHING is going on and the markets are drifting along with little real short term direction. LONG term however....the market bias is strongly positive.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq wobble post-Nvidia earnings, bitcoin jumps to record high

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...s-bitcoin-jumps-to-record-high-143024294.html

 

Here is the economic data today. it seems like this stuff is being released....now.....nearly every day. What a bunch of busy work. I dont see much relevance for investors in any of this distorted and corrupt information.....but here it is if you want to take a look.

Sales of previously occupied homes rose in October, the first annual gain in the U.S. in more than three years

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sales-previously-occupied-homes-rose-150148544.html

obless claims fall to 7-month low, show labor market 'trending sideways at a healthy level'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobl...ng-sideways-at-a-healthy-level-143631415.html

 

If I was to focus on a single little bit of the NVDA earnings and guidance....this is what I would hang my hat on.

Nvidia says it will sell more of its next-generation Blackwell chips than previously anticipated

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvi...ckwell-chips-than-previously-anticipated.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Nvidia on Wednesday emphasized that the rollout of its next generation Blackwell chip is on track.
• The company also signaled that Blackwell sales over the next few quarters will be limited by how many chips and systems Nvidia can make, not how much it can sell.
• “Blackwell production is in full steam,” Huang said. “We will deliver this quarter more Blackwells than we had previously estimated.”

After a quarter where Nvidia’s sales nearly doubled, investors and analysts are wondering how long the chipmaker can keep this kind of growth going now that it has a $140 billion annual revenue run rate.

Those hopes fall on Blackwell, which is Nvidia’s name for a family of server products based around its next-generation AI chip.

CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress gave investors several new data points on how Blackwell’s launch is shaping up on a call with analysts on Wednesday. The duo emphasized that the rollout is on track, and they signaled that Blackwell sales over the next few quarters will be limited by how many chips and systems Nvidia can make, not how much it can sell.

“Blackwell production is in full steam,” Huang said. “We will deliver this quarter more Blackwells than we had previously estimated.”

The company’s positive comments on Blackwell are one reason why the stock is only down 1%, despite the company missing elevated expectations from bullish investors who anticipated Nvidia would significantly exceed its own forecasts.

Huang and Kress’s comments also addressed fears about shipment delays that were spurred by reports that said Nvidia was making ongoing engineering changes to its systems to address problems.

Some of Nvidia’s most important end-customers have already received some Blackwell chips, the company confirmed on Wednesday. Microsoft, Oracle and OpenAI have posted pictures of Blackwell-based server racks on their social media accounts, and on Wednesday, the company said 13,000 Blackwell chips have already been shipped to customers.

“There’s still a lot of a lot of engineering that happens at this point,” Huang said. “But as you see from all of the systems that are being stood up, Blackwell is in great shape.”

Those sample chips aren’t the bulk of the shipments that the company is expecting to make. They’re early versions intended to allow customers to start testing and get their systems and software ready for the volume shipments, which will start in Nvidia’s current quarter.

“We will we’ll ship more Blackwells next quarter than this [quarter], and we’ll ship more Blackwells the quarter after that than than our first quarter,” Huang said.

In July, Nvidia said it expected “several billion dollars” of Blackwell revenue in its current quarter, and on Wednesday, the company said it expects the amount of Blackwell sales for this quarter to be higher than its original forecast. Huang also said that Microsoft will soon start to preview its Blackwell-based systems to cloud customers.

A limiting factor to producing more Blackwell systems is the amount of components that Nvidia’s suppliers can provide, Huang said. Additionally, it takes time to ramp up the velocity of a manufacturing process that has gone from zero shipments to billions of dollars of shipments in a few months.

“It is the case that demand exceeds our supply, and that’s expected as we’re in the beginnings of this generative AI revolution,” Huang said.

He also named some of Nvidia’s “great partners,” including TSMC, Amphenol, Vertiv, SK Hynix and Micron.

“Almost every company in the world seems to be involved in our supply chain,” Huang said.

Nvidia said that Blackwell’s gross margins will be lower in the coming months than the 73.5% it reported in the third quarter, but the company said that margin will increase as the product matures. Huang pointed out that Blackwell comes as just the chip itself or in configurations that include an entire rack and other components.

Nvidia’s overall message on Wednesday was that its new Blackwell chip is in short supply because companies like OpenAI need the fastest GPUs available as quickly as possible to develop next-generation AI models. As Blackwell rolls out, Nvidia’s current AI chips, which it calls Hopper, will be relegated to serving AI models, not creating new ones. Nvidia said that Blackwell sales will eventually exceed those of Hopper.

“You see now that at the tail end of the last generation of foundation models, we’re at at about 100,000 Hoppers,” Huang said. “The next generation starts at 100,000 Blackwells.”"

MY COMMENT

Good enough for me. In fact this projection of the future with Blackwell will drive the stock to more and more new all time highs over the coming years.

I will ENJOY the ride.

 

I dont invest based on analyst moves....but it seems that many of the BIG company analysts are ramping up their price expectations for NVDA. I would tend to put more belief in what these people are doing and projecting for the stock...... than what the market is doing to the stock today.

Goldman Sachs analyst leads Nvidia price target overhauls after earnings
Nvidia's near-term outlook may have disappointed markets, but analysts are taking a different view.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...-nvidia-price-target-overhauls-after-earnings

MY COMMENT

The day to day short term markets are dumb as a post. NVDA....in the RED for the past five days.....in the RED for the past month.

 

That pretty much covers what is going on today which is.....not much.

 

I doubt I am making any money so far today. I know that all the big cap tech stocks that I own are RED at this moment. I am being somewhat carried today by....PLTR, COST, HD, and CMG.....mostly my non-tech stocks.

I would still like to have a couple more non-tech holdings. I dont have money to add anything at this moment. If I did have additional money I would probably add to my PLTR and CMG....junior positions. If I than had even more money to play with for the long term......I would consider adding WMT.

I have been thinking about WMT for a long time now....but just have not had the money to add it.

Another addition I would consider is simply adding more money to my SP500 Index fund.....if I had the money.

If I was looking for an old fashioned dividend paying GIANT....my choice would probably be PG.

 

I am calling today a....moral victory.

At least NVDA ended in the GREEN. It along with COST, HD, and CMG brought my nine stocks positive for the day. BUT...I lagged the eSP500 by 0.39% today.

Moving on and forward.....as usual....not like I have any choice anyway.

 

Yep....RG.

I consider PG an old time, dividend paying, big cap stock. It is an old fashioned CONGLOMERATE.

If someone is looking to be in an individual stock that is......"probably"..... fairly SAFE and pays a good dividend and might provide a bit of safety in a down market....I put PG in that category.

 

Looks like we will just have to make money on NVDA in the days and months ahead. A waste of a very good earnings report.

Lets see if there is a reaction and a BUMP tomorrow.

 

I just realized that the SP500 has now BLOWN THROUGH my start of the year prediction. Way back at the start of the year......I made my prediction of SP500 at 5800 by year end. We are now at.......5948.

That is a gain of +25.43%.....so far this year. AND....I dont think this is total return....it does not include the addition of dividends and compounding that happens over the year as a result.

What an EPIC year for investors.

 

Believe it or not....there are still many people that are just now taking notice of NVDA and considering buying some shares.

Nvidia's market value is up 195% over 11 months. Is it still a good time to invest?

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/invest-in-nvidia-004052401.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia (NVDA) stock opened the year at about $50 per share (on a split-adjusted basis). As of late November 2024, the AI hardware giant stock's price had eclipsed $145 — that growth equates to a year-to-date market value increase of almost 195%.

When one of the world's largest companies nearly triples in value over 11 months, investors take notice. You might naturally wonder if Nvidia will keep growing and, if so, whether you can benefit.

To help you decide if you should invest in Nvidia, let's review key factors from the company's last earnings release and the questions you should consider before placing a buy order.


Nvidia's third-quarter highlights

Nvidia reported $35.1 billion in revenue and $0.81 in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) in the third quarter. Revenue had increased by 94% from the prior-year quarter, and EPS rose 103% year over year.

Notably, Nvidia generated nearly 88% of its revenue from its data center reporting segment, which includes the company's AI computing solutions. Data center revenues grew 112% year over year, outpacing the company's other three segments. Nvidia's gaming revenues grew 15%, professional visualization revenues were up 17%, and automotive and robotics revenues increased 72%.

Nvidia’s outlook

Nvidia first reported triple-digit data center revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Now that the company has lapped those gains, comparisons will be more challenging going forward. Even so, Nvidia's leadership team expects more growth.

The company's fourth quarter revenue guidance is $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. This compares to revenue of $22.1 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The non-GAAP gross margin expectation for the upcoming quarter is 73.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Nvidia has held its non-GAAP gross margin over 70% throughout this recent growth phase, since the second quarter of fiscal 2024.

Nvidia’s Blackwell launch

Nvidia plans to ship its most powerful graphics processing units, or GPUs, to date later this year. The launch is one for investors to watch. According to Nvidia, the next-generation Blackwell chips will deliver more computing power with lower energy consumption than the company's industry-leading H100 chip.

Nvidia recently reported positive test results for the Blackwell platform. Against MLPerf Training 4.1 industry benchmarks, Blackwell delivered up to 2.2 times more performance per GPU. MLPerf benchmarks are developed by a consortium of AI leaders from multiple disciplines to evaluate workloads for machine-learning workflows.

If Blackwell chips live up to expectations, it could spark another wave of strong AI hardware demand.

Questions to ask before investing in Nvidia

Nvidia has business momentum, but that does not solely justify a decision to invest. An ownership position in the chip designer only makes sense when it aligns with your risk tolerance, investing goals, and interests. Before you buy, test this alignment using the eight questions below.

No. 1: Can I handle large fluctuations in Nvidia's price?

Nvidia lost 50% of its value in 2022. The company also fell nearly 83% in 2002 after the dot-com bubble burst.

The stock recovered from both declines eventually, but Nvidia remains a high-volatility position. The potential for large value changes, up or down, should influence how much Nvidia stock, if any, you want to own.

No. 2: Is my portfolio diversified so I’m not wholly dependent on Nvidia?

Diversifying your holdings beyond Nvidia provides some protection from future volatility. Consider setting a cap on your relative Nvidia exposure based on your risk tolerance. A conservative approach, for example, would be limiting the value of your Nvidia stock to 1% of your portfolio. At this allocation, Nvidia could fall dramatically, and your net worth would remain largely intact.

No. 3: What are my income requirements?

Nvidia pays a dividend, but it is not a good dividend stock. The dividend yield of 0.03% compares poorly to yields on cash savings accounts and many other S&P 500 stocks. For comparison, the average cash deposit rate in the U.S. is 0.43% and the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 1.24% as of Nov. 19.

If income is your primary investing goal, there are better options than Nvidia.

No. 4: Is Nvidia’s current price acceptable given its sales and earnings?

Nvidia's stock price is high relative to its historic sales and earnings. Investors buying Nvidia today largely believe the company's future earnings will justify the current price tag.

This is a common rationale for growth stocks, but it comes with risk. Stocks that trade at high prices relative to earnings can be volatile. The stock price moves higher on investor optimism but may fall quickly if earnings fail to meet future expectations.

If you prefer a safer approach, you could wait until Nvidia's price dips before you buy. As long as the decline is related to investor sentiment or a temporary circumstance, it should not affect the company's long-term potential.

No. 5: Do I understand and agree with the value proposition of AI?

The optimistic outlook for Nvidia relies on continued AI infrastructure spending. Multiple researchers and analysts believe the AI technology buildout still has years of growth ahead. However, research and advisory firm Forrester notes that "only 20% of businesses reported earnings benefits from AI in 2024," despite billions spent on AI infrastructure in 2023.

AI implementations must deliver returns, or the trajectory of spending on data center infrastructure will change. A spending decline could challenge Nvidia's efforts to meet investor expectations.

No. 6: Do I know about U.S. regulations on semiconductor exports?

The Department of Commerce has proposed new rules limiting the export of high-powered semiconductors and related technologies. The rules are intended to prevent foreign adversaries from developing technology that could threaten national security.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is enforcing its existing export restrictions. In November 2024, the Department of Commerce ordered Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), a major supplier to Nvidia, to stop shipping high-powered chips to Chinese customers.

Existing and new semiconductor export restrictions limit Nvidia's opportunity in China, which is a sizable market. Statista estimates the Chinese chip sales totaled $185 billion in 2023.

If you intend to invest in Nvidia, plan on following these regulatory developments and evaluating their ongoing impact on the business.

No. 7: Do I understand who Nvidia’s competition is?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a Nvidia competitor, is also targeting the AI chip market. In recent years, AMD CEO Lisa Su has raised the company's R&D budget dramatically and made a string of acquisitions to broaden AMD's AI resources and expertise.

AMD does not have a meaningful market share in AI chips today, but the company says its newest chip, the MI325X, is more powerful than Nvidia's H200. As a prospective Nvidia investor, you might consider analyzing a competitor like AMD to understand its capabilities and how they could affect Nvidia's prospects.

Nvidia also faces competition from the major cloud computing providers: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN). These tech giants, currently among Nvidia's largest customers, are developing their own AI chips to avoid being overly dependent on Nvidia.

No. 8: What factors would prompt me to sell Nvidia?

It is always smart to define your sell parameters before buying any stock, especially the volatile ones. Sell triggers can be positive developments that push the stock price higher and create profit-taking opportunities. Or, triggers can be negative circumstances that permanently dampen the company's outlook.

Having documented sell triggers can discourage you from making an emotionally driven decision to liquidate. With Nvidia's history of price declines and recoveries, a rash decision to sell could leave you watching from the sidelines as the stock returns to growth.

Only you can decide if the risks associated with Nvidia stock are worth the rewards. Learn the business, know your risk tolerance, and choose a position size that makes sense. Remember that you can always add to your Nvidia holdings once you become comfortable with its behavior."

MY COMMENT

Buying a stock like NVDA is a very personal choice. Many people that post on here own the stock.....BUT....BIG BUT....that does not mean YOU or anyone else should also own it.

It is a very volatile and in my view aggressive stock for many people to own. Although you could say that the risk of owning the company is not as high now as when it was a much smaller company.

If YOU are considering adding shares of this stock....think hard about your situation and your RISK TOLERANCE. Keep in mind that if YOU own the SP500 Index or any of the other big averages you are already a NVDA shareholder. This might be sufficient for you.

 

As a fully invested all the time investor......premabull?.....I like this little article.

Why We Aren’t Permabulls

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-we-arent-permabulls/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"“Oh, those Carson guys are just permabulls.” Institutional CIO who has been dead wrong for years

Are we permabulls? We get this question sometimes and it is a great question. (A permabull is someone who remains bullish on markets no matter what is happening.)

On the surface we know that stocks usually go up, so maybe we should always lean bullishly? When it comes to my investments and retirement accounts, I do take this approach. I don’t care what the headlines are, I’m still going to put money into my 401k every two weeks. Then we look at a chart like this and it makes you think it might pay to have a glass half full approach to life.



It is no secret that the Carson Investment Research team took the road less travelled two years ago and went on record that a new bull market was starting and there wouldn’t be a recession. This call was absolutely hated by so many. I’ll never understand why, but most were hoping for a recession and bear market and for us to be one of the very few places to go against the herd of institutional investors (who all think the same) wasn’t well received.

We were mocked on social media, laughed at in public forums for saying 2023 was going to be a good year, shunned from going on TV for being ‘reckless’, and more. Here’s the thing. Yes, in bull markets with the current backdrop we are bulls. When we start to see signs of technical deterioration, stress in the credit markets, and signs the economy is indeed breaking down, we will change our tune. We’ve been overweight equities since December 2022 and we remain there today.

So no, we aren’t permabulls. But we are completely dedicated to helping clients reach their financial goals, even if that means going against what’s fashionable. And we definitely were not running around for two years telling people to be overweight bonds relative to stocks like so many of the big institutional shops have been.

Why do we remain bullish here and now? For starters, this bull market is actually quite young, at just over two years old. As you can see here, the average bull market lasts more than five years, suggesting this bull market might indeed last a lot longer than the bearish CIO would think.



Did you hear we had an election recently? Yeah, you probably heard, but what you might not have heard was that years one and two of a president who was re-elected tend to do quite well and better than under a new president. In fact, the four years under President Biden played out quite well to script. Year one does well, then year two (the midterm year) is weak, followed by a strong final two years. No, we don’t say you should invest simply on the presidential cycle, but we sure wouldn’t ignore it either.



What drives long-term stock gains? It is earnings and when you have an economy that continues to surprise to the upside, you tend to have solid earnings. For more of our thoughts on why the economy continues to look pretty good, be sure to read what Sonu Varghese, VP Global Macro Strategist, wrote in The Economic Outlook Looks Pretty Good – Part 1 and Part 2.

Turning to forward 12-month S&P 500 earnings we once again see new highs, all the way up to $268, up from $225 in early 2023. There is no holy grail when it comes to investing, but when we saw earnings estimates making hew highs, we took it as a big reason to be overweight equities and still do.



It doesn’t stop there though, as profit margins continue to trend higher and are at their highest levels this cycle. Profit margins expanding and earnings hitting all-time highs are great dual tailwinds for higher stock prices.



The S&P 500 is looking at potential back-to-back years with a gain of over 20% for the first time since the late 1990s, so we need to be aware it’ll likely be tough to see that impressive feat for a third year in a row. Then again, here’s a tweet I did on consecutive 20% years. If investors have 99 problems, up 20% two years in a row shouldn’t be one of them.



We continue to think low double-digit returns next year is possible (so better than your average year), but one thing to be aware of is the third year of a new bull market tends to be a catch-your-breath year. This makes sense, as years one and two of a new bull market are very strong, so some consolidation would be perfectly normal. The good news is once a bull market gets to year four, the returns once again are very strong.



When I started at Carson back in July 2022, I wanted to be part of one of the most honest and trustworthy research shops out there. We won’t always be right, but we sure won’t always be wrong is how I like to say it. The calls that our team has made the past few years have been about as good as anyone else out there. We are honored to help so many of our Partners grow and to shed some light on what it really happening, without following the crowd and saying the same thing as everyone else.

No we aren’t ‘just permabulls’ around here and trust me, we will change our tune when the data tells us to. Where am I a true permabull? I’m a permabull in believing that if you treat people the right way, work hard, stay humble, and surround yourself with good people that good things will happen."

MY COMMENT

I go into EVERY year with good expectations. Why not......the strong majority of all years are positive for the markets.

Right now we are in the early to middle stages of a bull market with BIG potential to last for years considering the advances that are happening in big tech and business. We are finally done with all the disruptions and distortions of the pandemic. We are now going to be under a new government that will focus on cutting regulations, boosting energy production, lower taxes, and being business friendly.

I dont have a crystal ball.....although I do have a magic eight ball......and it is telling me that next year, 2025, will be ANOTHER very good year for investors. I think it is eminently rational to see the SP500 next year ending the year with a gain of 12% to 16%. That is my view of where we are headed.