The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Even though the media, traders and others continue to ignore and disrespect the EPIC NVDA earnings.....here is where we are with the company and its impact.

    NVIDIA’s Super-Sized Importance

    https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/nvidias-super-sized-importance.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Semiconductors, artificial intelligence, NVIDIA (NVDA) — it’s no secret these items have been a focal point for investors for quite a while now. But despite NVDA initially joining the S&P 500 in November 2001, the chipmaker only recently became a proverbial “household name.” In fact, it’s nearly impossible to imagine today’s market without NVDA, or the broader semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) theme for that matter. With the chipmaking giant set to report earnings after today’s close, we examine the astonishing importance of NVDA.

    Capital markets have only temporarily turned their focus away from the AI theme in 2024 despite the start of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle, a U.S. presidential election, and continued resilience in economic data. This unwavering focus on AI resulted in the meteoric rise of NVDA, propelling the stock to become one of the largest companies in the S&P 500, currently in a dead heat for the top spot with fellow Magnificent Seven member Apple (AAPL). Using the Bloomberg 500 (B500) Index, made up of the largest U.S. companies as a proxy for the S&P 500, NVDA commands a 6.9% weight in the index. This is over 4.4% more than the fifth largest company, Meta (META), and just over 5.5% more than the 10th largest company, JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

    NVDA Weight in Bloomberg 500 Index Over Time
    [​IMG]
    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 11/20/24
    Disclosures: All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any companies referenced are being presented as a proxy, not as a recommendation. and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. The Bloomberg 500 index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

    Super-sized Importance

    As a result of a hearty index weighting and continued outperformance, NVDA has contributed over 23.5% to the B500’s +24% year-to-date return. For reference, NVDA’s contribution to year-to-date gains is more than the next five strongest stocks combined – Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA). From a different perspective, on average, NVDA moves the largest amount of money for a single stock in the world each day (in U.S. dollars), dwarfing every other name in both U.S. and international markets. Furthermore, the company’s earnings report has essentially reached the same level of importance as a major macroeconomic data release. Based on the forward implied volatility of the S&P 500, NVDA’s earnings report is priced as the largest event for markets from mid-November to mid-December, with a higher forward implied volatility percentage than both the November payrolls report on December 6, and the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on December 8. This implies the potential for a notable price swing in either direction on Thursday following NVDA’s Wednesday evening report, as has been the case with many prior reports.

    S&P 500 Forward Implied Volatility
    [​IMG]
    Source: LPL Research, Citi Global Markets, Bloomberg 11/13/24
    Disclosures: All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change.

    Index Concentration and Dominance Not Limited to the U.S.

    While NVDA’s concentration is noteworthy, this phenomenon is not unheard of. Fellow chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) makes up over 33% of the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index, also known as the TAIEX, and is responsible for over 76% of the index’s year-to-date gains. Meanwhile, in Denmark, pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (maker of diabetes/weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy) makes up nearly all of the healthcare sector for the Danish index and over 71% of the entire index.

    Conclusion

    In a nearly exponential rise, NVDA has become a household name for all types of investors and market watchers. Capital markets are focused on this afternoon’s earnings report and guidance, sniffing for insights into the future of AI spending and the AI theme, in addition to the company itself. While NVDA has consistently topped earnings estimates, and the long-term trend for the chipmaking behemoth has been up and to the right, subsequent one-day price action has been mixed while investors parse results, and semiconductor names face increasing scrutiny in today’s market. The post-earnings one-week absolute move for NVDA over the past ten years has been slightly below 11%."

    MY COMMENT

    I like what I have BOLDED above. It shows how RARE, SPECIAL, and DOMINANT this one company has become.

    This little article was pre-earnings but the information that I noted above is true regardless of the recent earnings....which incidentally....were massive.

    Of course over the past month.....and since earnings....the stock is in the RED.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont know why I am even posting this little bit of content about the markets today......NOTHING is going on of any substance or importance. At this point the markets are irrationally disconnected from the reality of what is going on in the big cap tech world and is walking around with its nose up in the air...refusing to see or acknowledge the reality of the AI boom.

    Dow, S&P 500 rise with weekly wins in play

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-rise-with-weekly-wins-in-play-144946360.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks rose on Friday as investors surveyed President-elect Donald Trump's efforts to build his team and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) bid to reach a key milestone.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 250 points or 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) flipped between positive and negative territory, after the major gauges closed Thursday in the green.

    Markets are regrouping after Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings fell short of definitively settling the question of whether AI would keep boosting stocks. Some of the "Magnificent Seven" tech megacap stocks were under pressure in early trading, also dogged by the potential breakup of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).

    The major gauges are still on track to close the week with wins of over 1%, despite getting it off to a lackluster start as the post-election rally stalled.

    Wall Street is still waiting to learn who Trump will tap for his Treasury secretary — an announcement that could sway markets, given its importance to the economy. The president-elect tapped former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to be the US attorney general after his prior pick, Matt Gaetz, withdrew his name from consideration on Thursday.

    Meanwhile, surging bitcoin continued to move near the landmark $100,000 level, buoyed by growing confidence that the Trump administration will support pro-crypto policies. The leading token broke above $99,500 early on Friday before retreating amid hopes for looser regulatory oversight after SEC Chair Gary Gensler said he will step down soon. Smaller cryptocurrencies also got a boost."

    MY COMMENT

    Another business as usual day in the markets today. As has been typical for many, many quarters now...earnings dont matter much in the short term. We have just completed yet another very strong earnings reporting period.

    As I have said before.....the markets are now JADED and dont give earnings any respect.....especially day to day. It takes away a lot of the excitement.....but investors simply have to be satisfied with capturing the benefits of great earnings over the long term. The short term post-earnings action is usually just a disappointment......even with good to great earnings.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will find out at the close today.....but....this is probably going to end up as a good week.

    BUT.....it does not feel that way after the past couple of days. Of course....that is just my brain playing tricks on me.

    SO.......there I am....that tiny little figure way out on the horizan........riding along in front of the huge TSUNAMI on my little investing surf board. RIDING THE WAVE....RIDING THE WAVE.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am way early but here is my prediction for the SP500 at year end.....2025.

    SIXTY EIGHT HUNDRED......6800.

    Primarily based on the continuation of the tech and AI revolution (earnings).....plus the improved business environment that government should deliver.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Since NOTHING is going on today in the "Seinfeld" markets......"markets about nothing"......I will post a couple of research sites that I use often. I have put these on here in the past but....they are worth repeating.

    First a go-to site for any sort of calculator you might need.

    "Make your money work for you.
    The best original finance and investment tools and research"

    https://dqydj.com/

    From investing, to net worth, to income, to health, to personal finance, to real estate, to economics.....this is the place to find some sort of calculator.

    HERE is a summary of some of the content on this site:

    https://dqydj.com/calculators/

    AND

    For FUNDAMENTAL stock research.....this is my go-to site.

    "Macrotrends - The Premier Research Platform for Long Term Investors
    • Stock screener with over 50 performance and fundamental criteria.
    • 50+ years of historical stock price and dividend data.
    • 10 years of quarterly stock fundamental data.
    • 100+ years of inflation-adjusted data for major market indices.
    • 100+ years of precious metals data.
    • 45 years of commodity, interest rate and exchange rate data.
    • 100+ years of economic data."

    https://www.macrotrends.net/

    MY COMMENT

    NO....I dont pay anything to use these sites.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I currently have every stock UP today....except for.....NVDA and GOOGL.

    With GOOGL.....we are seeing the impact of our CURRENT government attacking and trying to destroy one of our largest and greatest companies. I have one question.....WHY?

    With NVDA....we are seeing the SGT Schultz investing community....."I see nothing, I see nothing".....attacking and selling off the most successful company....IN THE WORLD.....following MASSIVE earnings. Again.....I have one question....WHY?

    Considering the STUPIDITY of the short term.....I really dont expect much to happen today any different than what we are seeing right now.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Impossible for me to be green today with NVDA down as it was. So....RED for me.......and....a loss to the SP500 today by 1.51%.

    I did manage a nice gain for the week......see post below.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The week that was.

    DOW year to date +17.45%
    DOW five days +1.99%

    SP500 year to date +25.86%
    SP500 five days +1.62%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +25.63%
    NASDAQ 100 five days +1.56%

    NASDAQ year to date +28.70%
    NASDAQ five days +1.53%

    RUSSELL year to date +19.58%
    RUSSELL five days +4.36%

    As for my ENTIRE account this week I ended at a year to date gain of......+66.07%. Last week at this same time I was at a year to date for my entire portfolio of......+64.68%.

    ONWARD AND UPWARD.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WE NOW HAVE FIVE WEEKS AND TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE 2024 MARKET YEAR.

    The year end countdown begins. That means only......27.....market days left in 2024 before we lock in the returns for good in the historical record.

    I am very happy with how I am sitting right now at +66.07%.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Historic earnings are ignored and disrespected. The stock is in the RED over the past few days and much of the past month. Etc, etc, etc. Yet at the same time just about EVERY news item you see is pointing to massive demand for many years for the products from this company. What a silly disconnect.

    The Next AI Battle: Who Can Get the Most Nvidia Chips in One Place

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-ai-battle-most-nvidia-103000537.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Tech titans have a new way to measure who is winning in the race for AI supremacy: who can put the most Nvidia chips in one place.

    Companies that run big data centers have been vying for the past two years to buy up the artificial-intelligence processors that are Nvidia’s specialty. Now some of the most ambitious players are escalating those efforts by building so-called super clusters of computer servers that cost billions of dollars and contain unprecedented numbers of Nvidia’s most advanced chips.

    Elon Musk’s xAI built a supercomputer it calls Colossus—with 100,000 of Nvidia’s Hopper AI chips—in Memphis in a matter of months. Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said last month that his company was already training its most advanced AI models with a conglomeration of chips he called “bigger than anything I’ve seen reported for what others are doing.”

    A year ago, clusters of tens of thousands of chips were seen as very large. OpenAI used around 10,000 of Nvidia’s chips to train the version of ChatGPT it launched in late 2022, UBS analysts estimate.

    Such a push toward larger super clusters could help Nvidia sustain a growth trajectory that has seen it rise from about $7 billion of quarterly revenue two years ago to more than $35 billion today. That jump has helped make it the world’s most-valuable publicly listed company, with a market capitalization of more than $3.5 trillion.

    Installing many chips in one place, linked together by superfast networking cables, has so far produced larger AI models at faster rates. But there are questions about whether ever-bigger super clusters will continue to translate into smarter chatbots and more convincing image-generation tools.

    The continuation of the AI boom for Nvidia also depends in great measure on how the largest clusters of chips pan out. The trend promises not only a wave of buying for its chips but also fosters demand for Nvidia’s networking equipment, which is fast becoming a significant business and brings in billions of dollars of sales each year.

    Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang said in a call with analysts following its earnings Wednesday that there was still plenty of room for so-called AI foundation models to improve with larger-scale computing setups. He predicted continued investment as the company transitions to its next-generation AI chips, called Blackwell, which are several times as powerful as its current chips.

    Huang said that while the biggest clusters for training for giant AI models now top out at around 100,000 of Nvidia’s current chips, “the next generation starts at around 100,000 Blackwells. And so that gives you a sense of where the industry is moving.

    The stakes are high for companies such as xAI and Meta, which are racing against each other for computing-power bragging rights but are also gambling that having more of Nvidia’s chips, called GPUs, will translate into commensurately better AI models.

    There is no evidence that this will scale to a million chips and a $100 billion system, but there is the observation that they have scaled extremely well all the way from just dozens of chips to 100,000,” said Dylan Patel, the chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, a research firm.

    In addition to xAI and Meta, OpenAI and Microsoft have been working to build up significant new computing facilities for AI. Google is building massive data centers to house chips that drive its AI strategy.

    Huang marveled on a podcast last month at the speed with which Musk had built his Colossus cluster and affirmed that more, larger ones were on the way. He pointed to efforts to train models distributed across multiple data centers.

    “Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt,” Huang said. “That is a certainty now. And the question is how do we architect it from a data center perspective.”


    Unprecedented super clusters are already getting airplay. Musk posted last month on his social-media platform X that his 100,000-chip Colossus super cluster was “soon to become” a 200,000-chip cluster in a single building. He also posted in June that the next step would probably be a 300,000-chip cluster of Nvidia’s newest chips next summer.

    The rise of super clusters comes as their operators prepare for the Blackwell chips, which are set to start shipping out in the next couple of months. They are estimated to cost around $30,000 each, meaning a cluster of 100,000 would cost $3 billion, not counting the price of the power-generation infrastructure and IT equipment around the chips.

    Those dollar figures make building up super clusters with ever more chips something of a gamble, industry insiders say, given that it isn’t clear that they will improve AI models to a degree that justifies their cost.

    New engineering challenges also often arise with larger clusters. Meta researchers said in a July paper that a cluster of more than 16,000 of Nvidia’s GPUs suffered from unexpected failures of chips and other components routinely as the company trained an advanced version of its Llama model over 54 days.

    Keeping Nvidia’s chips cool is a major challenge as clusters of power-hungry chips become packed more closely together, industry executives say, part of the reason there is a shift toward liquid cooling where refrigerant is piped directly to chips to keep them from overheating.

    And the sheer size of the super clusters requires a stepped-up level of management of those chips when they fail. Mark Adams, chief executive of Penguin Solutions, a company that helps set up and operate computing infrastructure, said elevated complexity in running large clusters of chips inevitably throws up problems.

    “When you look at everything that can go wrong, you could be utilizing half of what your capital expenditure was because of all these things that can break down,” he said."

    MY COMMENT

    In my lifetime I have NEVER seen a company dominate a business area like this......not even MSFT in the old days. Nearly every item you see reported is very positive for more and more sales for NVDA. It is RARE to see anything negative all.

    YES....the above projection is yet another HUGE plus for NVDA going forward.

    I find it amazing that at the same time the traders, the markets....just seem to often ignore what is right in front of their face.

    Is it because everyone that wants this stock already owns it? Is it so overexposed that now no one cares? Is it just a short term trading vehicle at this point? Has the company gotten so big that now it just eclipses the markets? is it because this company shot to the top so quickly that people still dont believe it?

    I dont know. How and why the markets are often treating this company and stock is a mystery to me.
     
    #22192 WXYZ, Nov 23, 2024 at 8:40 AM
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2024 at 9:23 AM
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been staying busy with enough music "stuff" to keep me satisfied. At age 75...I have nothing left to prove and and am content to do......some.....rehearsals and shows as well as studio projects. I have two projects that I need to produce.....live material....but am letting it age for now. I will probably get around to it some time over the next 1-2 years.

    I have an afternoon show scheduled for December 8 that will be a good one. I will be playing with various people that I have played with in the past and it will probably lead to more shows down the road.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It will be a.....traditional....short week for the markets next week.

    Everything will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. The markets will close early the Friday after thanksgiving.....at 1:00 ET.

    No doubt many people will take the whole week off.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the week to come.

    Fed's preferred inflation gauge highlights holiday-shortened trading week: What to know this week

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...ng-week-what-to-know-this-week-122846140.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks drifted higher leading into the shortened trading week that includes the Thanksgiving holiday.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 2% for the week while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added over 1.5%.

    In the week ahead, a fresh reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, will highlight the economic calendar. Updates on third quarter economic growth and housing activity are also on the schedule.

    In corporate news, quarterly results from Zoom (ZM), Dell (DELL), Best Buy (BBY), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Macy's (M) are likely to catch investor attention.

    Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday's trading session will end early at 1 p.m. ET.

    Price check

    Recent sticky inflation readings have raised questions about whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December and how much the central bank will lower rates over the next year.

    Earlier this month, the "core" Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices increased 3.3% in October for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the "core" Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed prices increased by 3.1% in October, up from 2.8% the month prior and above economist expectations for a 3% increase.

    On Wednesday, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that the Fed’s progress toward 2% inflation has “stalled” and the central bank should proceed "cautiously" when lowering interest rates.

    "We have seen considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023, but progress seems to have stalled in recent months," Bowman said in a speech at the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches.

    Economists expect more signs of that stalling in Wednesday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release. Economists expect annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.8% in October, up from the 2.7% seen in September. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.3%, unchanged from September.

    Bank of America Securities US economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a research note that a print in line with expectations will "certainly lead Fed participants to reassess their inflation and policy outlook."

    "That said," he added, "we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in December, but the risk appears to be tilting towards a shallower cutting cycle given resilient activity and stubborn inflation."

    On Friday, markets were pricing in a 44% chance the Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates at its December meeting, up from a 29% chance seen a month prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Bitcoin and 'animal spirits'

    While a holiday-shortened trading week will limit stock action, one of Wall Street's hottest trades since election night is likely to keep surging. Bitcoin has shot up nearly 50% since Donald Trump won the election as crypto enthusiasts have cheered a changed regulatory outlook.

    On Thursday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler announced he will be stepping down on Jan. 20, and bitcoin quickly rose to nearly $100,000 per coin for the first time ever. FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer Ben Emons told Yahoo Finance the rise of bitcoin is another sign of the risk-on mood in markets present since Trump won the election.

    "We may not be so much in an environment like 2021 when it was frothy," Emons said. "This is more about we're going to potentially really go into a different environment next year with the economy, with faster growth, and more liquidity. [So] then, yes, bitcoin should be trading at higher levels. So breaking $100,000 [per coin] is quite likely here.""

    S&P 500 targets

    Wall Street research firms are beginning to issue 2025 outlooks for the equity market. Largely, these reports have been bullish. Research teams tracked by Yahoo Finance have projected the benchmark index will finish as low as 6,400 next year or as high as 7,000.

    But as DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out, many of the current targets fall in line with the traditional average annual return of the S&P 500 over the last century. And that roughly 11% annual return rarely ever comes over a one-year period.

    "While the mean long run return is a comforting anchor for expectations, much less discussed is that the range around that average is very wide," Colas wrote. He pointed out that the standard deviation from the 11.7% average annual return is 19.6 percentage points meaning any return from a 7.8% decline to a 31.2% increase could be considered "entirely consistent with historical norms."

    This brings Colas to the true takeaway from Wall Street's recent bullish calls. It's more about the direction of the market than the actual projection strategists slap on the S&P 500. And Colas largely agrees with the upside many have been pointing to for 2025.

    "The most important issue for anyone invested in the US equity market is the stability of the US economy in 2025,
    " Colas wrote.

    He cited the US labor market's solid footing, lower interest rates, and an incoming administration that's expected to bring tax cuts and deregulation as reasons the economy will remain resilient in 2025.

    "We remain positive and believe the S&P 500 can rally more than its long-term average over the coming year," Colas wrote. "The setup going into 2025 more closely resembles exceptionally strong years rather than weak ones. We therefore expect the S&P 500 to gain around 15 percent in 2025, ending the year at 6,840 based on [Thursday's] close.""

    MY COMMENT

    I am placing my 2025 SP500 prediction at 6800 or 6900. For the next couple of years we will be in a time period with maximum....."probability"....of a very good economy and business environment.

    As to inflation......2.7% or 2.8%......actually on the low end of the NORMAL range.

    BUT...Thanksgiving and Black Friday week will cause a lot of distraction to the markets......so I dont expect much in the way of fireworks. This week will be the.....GATEWAY....to year end for the markets. Slightly over 6 weeks left in the market year. Once it is all over and the results are recorded in the......historical record......we ALL start over at ZERO.

    That is how I think.......the new year is a total new start. The old year is the.....past.....and no longer relevant.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    i have noticed lately that most commentary I see about Millennials is positive. They are no longer the...."woe is me", "I am worse off than my parents", "I cant find a job" etc, etc,....generation. They have evolved into having good jobs, making good money, owning a house, having a family and kids, etc, etc, etc. Just like every generation does over time as they get older.

    Now everything I see about GEN-Z.....is totally......"woe is me". They have taken over as the poor little generation that is not going to be the same as those that came before them. BUT....in the end......they will end up just like all those that went before them......even though many employers hate them.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is what made me think of the above.

    Millennials say they plan to spend big this holiday season — ‘I see a lot of optimism,’ expert says

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/24/millennials-will-spend-big-this-holiday-season-transunion-finds.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Americans tend to overspend during the holiday shopping season, and this year will be no different, according to forecasts.
    • Millennials, many of whom are now parents of school-age children, are leading the charge, a new survey says.
    • However, leaning on credit cards or buy now, pay later plans to purchase gifts will come at a high cost if those balances aren’t paid off quickly.

    Parents tend to splurge on their children during the holidays.

    This year, 63% of millennials, many of whom now have school-age children of their own, said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday shopping as they did last year — the highest share of any generation, according to a quarterly report by TransUnion.

    Millennials are also more likely to say their income went up over the last few months and that they expect their earnings potential to increase again in the year ahead. TransUnion polled 3,000 adults in October.

    “I see a lot of optimism going into the holiday season,” said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president and head of global research and consulting.

    For many in this group, recent wage gains have outpaced rising prices and, although the broader unemployment rate has ticked higher, “we are still seeing a steady employment situation,” Wise said. “When people have jobs, that confidence is going to translate into spending.”

    “It’s clear that millennials will play the largest role this holiday shopping season with the greatest expected spend,” Wise said.

    Holiday spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is forecast to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

    Even as credit card debt tops $1.17 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

    Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers surveyed in September said they still had not paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet, which polled more than 1,700 adults.

    Holiday spending may lead to holiday debt

    While most shoppers — 74% — use credit cards to buy holiday gifts, 28% will dip into savings to make their purchases, and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services, NerdWallet found. Survey respondents could choose multiple payment methods.

    Buy now, pay later is one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is expected to become more popular in the weeks ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts buy now, pay later spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day record of $993 million.

    However, managing multiple buy now, pay later loans with different payment dates may make it more likely for consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than with credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

    Sometimes, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0% interest, according to Marshall Lux, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

    “If used properly, it’s great,” Lux said.

    “But a lot of people are going to spread out purchases over a longer period of time and then you get into high interest and a cycle of debt,” he said.

    The more buy now, pay later accounts consumers have open at once, the more prone they become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

    If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges."

    MY COMMENT

    Looking for an EPIC holiday shopping season. Yes the kids.....the Millennials.....grew up. Now the early Millennials are entering their peak earnings years......40 to 55.

    My kids are in that early group.....in their early 40's. They have great jobs, own nice homes, make a really good income and have a big amount of retirement and investment savings. They are living the American dream.

    The most important factor......FAMILY SUPPORT. I consider this the primary function of FAMILY.....support and nurture and educate the next generation. No....it does not take a village.......but....it does take a family.

    My daughter recently visited her High School best friend. Her friend has done very well with only a High School degree in the banking business. She struggled while younger but is now doing well and has a nice family.

    When my daughter was in High School we lived in rural Texas in an area where a lot of kids never went on to college and had working class parents....that were not very active in their kids futures.

    My daughter told us that her friend....even though now 40 years old....mentioned "me"....when they met. She was very thankful that I was the only adult in her life that took an interest in her future and direction after High School. I had forgotten all about this. I tried to mentor her and help her decide what to do after graduation. I also helped her with college applications and paperwork even though she ended up not going.

    To me it was nothing....just normal stuff that you do as an adult with younger people. But to her even 20+ years later is was something she still remembers as significant in her life.

    So......DO SOME GOOD.....it does not take much to make an impact on a younger person's life.
     
    #22199 WXYZ, Nov 24, 2024 at 4:35 PM
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2024 at 4:44 PM

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