The Long Term Investor

At times I wonder what in the world big companies are really getting for the millions and millions......often tens of millions a year...... they pay their top management. I dont particularly care about Macy's.....but.....where was the management on this issue? Where were the accounting controls? How could this even happen with all the sophisticated.......nearly AI.....computer accounting systems with supposed checks and balances that big companies use? Where was the accounting chain of command?

It would actually be nice to see some top management....FIRED....when this sort of thing happens. I miss the good old days of the buck stopping at the top. I miss the good old days of management accountability. AND....I really miss the good old days of management competence.

Macy's delays Q3 earnings report, says employee hid up to $154 million in expenses

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macy...-up-to-154-million-in-expenses-130345010.html

 

WELL.....that did not take long.

Gold Tumbles After Report Says Israel and Hezbollah Reach Deal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-steady-surging-last-week-001632918.html

"Israel is potentially days away from a cease-fire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Israeli ambassador to the US said. Prices extended losses after Axios reported that Israel and Lebanon have accepted the terms of a ceasefire agreement. The parties haven’t yet announced an agreement, it said."

MY COMMENT

Considering how modern media works and reports.....I will believe this when it is final. But if true...it will be a good starting point to the continuation of the...... "Abraham Accords"......process in the Middle East.

From a stock market and business perspective....a very good thing if true.

 

The market today.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump after Trump picks Scott Bessent for Treasury

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...cks-scott-bessent-for-treasury-143035924.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

• 
  "US stocks climbed on Monday amid high hopes for President-elect Donald Trump's choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary. Investors also looked ahead to a Federal Reserve-favored inflation print.
  
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the advance, up about 250 points, or roughly 0.6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up almost 0.7%.
  
  Stocks are kicking off a holiday-shortened week with more of the upbeat mood that lifted the gauges to weekly wins. Markets will shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and close early on Friday. The Dow closed last week at a record high, gaining almost 2% on the week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were both up over 1.5% as they crept closer to the initial levels seen after the election.
  
  Trump tapped Bessent, viewed as the "investor favorite" pick for Treasury, late Friday evening after a surprisingly drawn-out process that saw candidates' stocks seem to rise and fall by the day. Bessent's nomination has seemed to at least temporarily calm nerves over the president-elect's inflationary agenda, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) dipping back to 4.36%.
  
  On the inflationary front, the Fed will get its preferred look at the picture heading into Trump's term with Wednesday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Economists expect a tick up in "core" PCE, which is closely watched by the central bank.
  
  Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) was in search of a milestone $100,000-per-coin level amid a near-50% surge over the past month. It was hovering around the $98,000 mark early Monday.
  
  
  • Oil drops 2% on report of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
  • 
    Oil dropped as much as 2% on a report that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah may have been reached.
    
    West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) sank 2% to hover below $70 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, traded below $74 per barrel.
    
    Axios reported on Monday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to terms of a ceasefire, according to a senior US official.
    
    Earlier, the Israeli ambassador to Washington said in a radio interview on Monday that deal points still need to be finalized but an agreement "can happen within days.”
• Nvidia slides as AI chip darling extends losses
• 
  Nvidia (NVDA) shares dropped as much as 3% in early trading as the AI chip heavyweight failed to participate in the rest of the market gains.
  
  Nvidia shares extended their decline from Friday's session, despite the company beating on quarterly results announced last week.
  
  The AI chipmaker has been a leader in the overall markets this year, accounting for roughly 20% of the S&P 500's performance."

MY COMMENT

Oil down......progress happening in the Middle East......the markets nicely UP. What more could you ask for?

 

I think the action since earnings in NVDA is a very nice little lesson for investors regarding the danger of short term trading. In fact short term trading in any stock in anticipation of earnings is simply....random gambling. With the current trend we have been seeing for years now of earnings BEATS being ignored and punished......trade earnings at your own risk.

In fact....trade any short term news or events at your own risk.

We are now in a totally random and reality disconnected short term market.

On a vaguely related note.....very vaguely......I do think the DOW is moving toward relevance. They have been slowly updating and modernizing the index lately and it now contains many of the modern big cap tech stocks. If they continue this process we might actually see the DOW become the Index to own. GASP.......BIG GASP.

But there is still work to do on the Index. I would DUMP......IBM, BA, NKE, HON, CSCO,....from the Index and replace them with a better mix of relevant companies. I would also adjust the number of banks, financial companies and drug companies in the current Index......there is no reason for these areas to be as overweight as they are.

But.......at least in my view.....the make-up of the Index is improving....if they keep moving forward....it might actually become relevant again.

 

To continue my random thoughts today....since there is really nothing going on in the financial news today.

I am an owner of CMG. I like this company. Most of my shares in my various accounts have now slowly worked their way into the green.

Over the last day or two I have seen a number of new CMG commercials on TV. In my view....great work. One shows a BIG brisket bowl.....with a close up of the meat being sliced and cut up...... the other shows chicken grilling and being sliced and put together into a BIG bowl.

The photographic quality of these commercials is superb. The food and bowls look amazing. I have no doubt that this advertising campaign....obliviously in response to the recent-past social media campaign against CMG portion sizes.....will drive good sales increases and customer count.

Well done.....CMG.

Although I will mention that I have still.....never.....eaten in a Chipotle restaurant.

 

WOW......PLTR continues to be....on fire. The stock is now up by about 1.40% today.

Unfortunately for me....my PLTR holding is still pretty small. If I had some money I would add more shares. I did manage to get the PLTR holding up to a regular portfolio weighting in a number of the accounts that I manage for family......and they are benefiting greatly from the rally of the past 1-6 months.

Here is how it has been doing....short term.

Five days +9.30%
One month +45.41%
Six months +209.88%
YTD +293.43%
One year +241.88%

And the long term.....five years......+609.02%.

BUt....this is still a very young company in a very volatile business.....AI. Time will tell who the winners and losers are in AI......but....PLTR is definately in the running......so far.

 

At the same time.....NVDA.

Five days (-2.48%)
One month (-2.68%)

Of course there are HUGE gains over YTD, one year, three years, and five years.

Interestingly if you look at a long term chart of NVDA......the majority of the gains started about....January 1, 2023. Before that time the stock ranged from about $5 to about $32.....over many years.

 

Looking at my account....I have a medium LOSS today. It is actually better than I expected with....MSFT, COST, and NVDA....all down for me today at this moment.

My other stocks are trying hard to fight back....but......are not able to withstand the red wave today in my largest holdings. At least my other stocks are doing their job and moderating my loss.

That is how a portfolio is supposed to work.

 

I agree TireSmoke......the stock is in a period of consolidation. This was happening before the most recent earnings report.

At the same time earnings and fundamentals are PILING up along with future orders and business strength. At some point the dam will break and the stock will jump forward. That is how stocks and markets operate......the short term is very erratic and never simply a smooth line up to the right.

I think that all the attention and day to day focus on the company is probably a negative.....for the stock. It is constantly under a HUGE microscope. Add in all the rumor-mongering and fear-mongering of the modern opinion media.....and....the short term becomes very difficult and volatile.