The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    And to continue.....on this topic.

    To Stocks, Black Friday Is Just Another Day
    Economic growth and Consumer Discretionary earnings depend on more than one day.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/to-stocks-black-friday-is-just-another-day

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "At last, the day is upon us! The day when turkey-filled Americans awake at 3 AM and bust down doors to secure allegedly huuuuuuge deals on their holiday shopping and burn off the prior day’s pie. Yes, it is nearly Black Friday, that supposedly make-or-break day not just for retailers’ bottom lines, but for total consumer spending. Forecasts are giddy that this year’s haul could top $75 billion. As always, we suggest not getting hung up on this, for good or ill. Whether the final tally misses or beats forecasts, it really doesn’t say anything about stocks’ economic drivers.

    For one, while that $75 billion is an eye-catching number, it encompasses the entire weekend—Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Whatever the Heck They Call That Sunday and Cyber Monday. It is also a product of recent years’ inflation, baking in the accumulated price increases on Malibu Furby or whatever the hot toy is. Nominal totals are always pretty meaningless, especially just after a period of wild inflation.

    Then, too, the discounting landscape has changed a lot in recent years. Promotions are no longer limited to the Thanksgiving weekend. Based on the anecdotal evidence from our in-boxes, many retailers offered Black Friday-like “friends and family” discounts from late October. Echoing the UK’s importation of Black Friday, the US seems to have imported Singles’ Day from China, blessing shoppers with a boatload of promotional deals on November 11. (We guess you could also argue Amazon’s October Prime Day event is cut from this cloth.) Then came the “Early Black Friday” deals, which are now in full swing. The madness, fun, whatever you want to call it, will probably run through next week … and all the way through New Year’s.

    For shoppers, it can all get a bit mind-boggling. Do you go for those friends-and-family deals in October? Hold out in hopes the discount is a bit bigger around Thanksgiving? Should one spring for that 25% off on Singles Day or hold out for 30% on Cyber Monday? And what if discounts get even bigger as Santa’s Sleigh gets ready to fly? Do you wait for the best deal possible or strike early, when inventory is at its peak? These calculations might sound trivial, but in our experience, they lead to holiday shopping getting scattered throughout the autumn and early winter. The entirety of Q4 retail sales is a better reflection of holiday demand than November alone.

    Even then, the results aren’t terribly meaningful. Legend has it Black Friday is so-called because it is the day on which retailers’ bottom line turns from red ink to profitable black. Perhaps that is so, if we are talking about a small boutique keeping its books and managing its inventory in a very particular way. But that isn’t really how it works in this modern corporate world, where metrics like year-over-year same-store sales growth get most attention. And year-over-year earnings growth, which is the measure investors tend to look at most. Consumer Discretionary stocks haven’t been reporting negative earnings per share all year. Profits have grown at a jaunty clip.

    Holiday spending isn’t make-or-break for the US economy, either. Rather, it is the sort of spike that gets scrubbed via seasonal adjustments so that data watchers can get a cleaner look at the trend. For us, this raises some academic curiosities, like, how will seasonal adjustment factors deal with the increasing rise of Black Friday Season? Will that cause some skew that statisticians will have to discern how to scrub? And what of our friends across the pond, how are their national statistics agencies adapting to Black Friday’s increasing popularity in Britain?

    But our fun is markets’ meh, whatever, we are too busy looking at the totality of the next 3 – 30 months and all relevant drivers. Stocks deal efficiently with the entire economic landscape as they weigh how reality is likely to shape up relative to expectations over the next year or two. They look not to one season, but to the whole range and the whole spectrum of things affecting activity within that range. Holiday demand is just one datapoint of many.

    So enjoy your discounts and your shopping, if you choose to participate. Deals are fun, even if the Black Friday variety tends to be a little … made-up. For every flat 30% off offer, there is a “doorbuster” with an artificially inflated “original price.” Retailers know how the human brain works and are good at capitalizing. But that is part of the game. So, do your homework, enjoy, and watch out for online scams! But don’t presume any of it is hugely important for the economy or stocks."

    MY COMMENT

    I agree. what will count is the entire Holiday shopping season over the next 4-6 weeks. And even than.......it will just be a minor data point over the next year for investors.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This year is the PERFECT example of the IDIOCY of the "experts".......and the fallacy that they have any more ability to predict the markets or the economy than anyone else. This is why most investors are simply better off ignoring it all.......the SHORT TERM NOISE...... and investing for the long term.

    The vintage year for US stock markets that few people expected

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vintage-us-stock-markets-few-080905507.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Bloomberg) — A year ago, equity investors and strategists braced for a potential turbulent 2024, worrying about the risk of a hard landing for the US economy and interest rates cuts that could come too late to prevent it.

    Fast forward to now: 2024 is set to enter Wall Street’s hall of fame of bull years.


    [​IMG]

    Heading into the year, few anticipated that the S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index’s annual gain would be among the best in history. Not many expected another blistering rally fueled by a handful of tech titans and a market sentiment so bullish that one risk event after another got cleared without a scratch.

    In late 2023, a slowdown was the central scenario for a lot of economists and inflation was still a major concern, blurring the path for monetary policy and the outlook for corporate profits. But interest rates have come down, growth is still robust and earnings are rising, pushing the market higher and volatility has remained subdued despite a flurry of risk events.

    The yearly performance of the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) and the S&P 500 is closer than it was historically, with both benchmarks up more than 20%. Artificial intelligence poster child Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) tripled once again in 2024, and all things technology followed in its wake.

    Following an already great 2023, not a lot of market participants would have thought that this year could see a repeat. “There has been an extraordinary equity run – particularly in the US,” said William Davies, global chief investment officer at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “Economic growth in the US has been solid and inflation has steadily decreased.”

    Market swings were benign with only one big valley of tears: a summer correction that culminated in a small selloff around early August. The drop lasted for just less than a month and failed to cross the threshold of 10%, typically seen as a correction.

    And while geopolitics were a constant threat, not an escalating conflict in the Middle East, nor the ongoing war in Ukraine or the US presidential election provided for any deep-rooted fears. China unleashed a wave of stimulus, and though it isn’t out of the woods yet, it was enough to keep the narrative of a healthy global economy alive.

    [​IMG]

    And even Europe did well. Most of the region’s country benchmarks are in the green this year despite a shaky economic outlook and collapsing governments in France and Germany. Gains in the US were so strong, however, that the Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) is set for one of its worst years versus the S&P 500. French equities are also a rare developed-market underperformer in 2024 due to political turmoil.

    As the new year looms, the mood this time is tilted toward the upside with nobody on Wall Street expecting a major correction, though there’s a hint of skepticism if stocks will be able to pull of three great years in a row.

    “Earnings growth forecasts for 2025 in the US remain optimistic, at around 15%. This continued resilience is to some extent a little surprising, because the global economy is not without risks as we move into 2025,” Davies said."

    MY COMMENT

    GOSH....what a surprise......the economic morons were WRONG once again. The "little people".....the retail investors.....were right once again as they held through it all and enjoyed a massive good year.

    It is such a shame that we allow these people.....the experts and elites.....to govern us and control our economic discourse.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OMG....buy, buy, buy.....sell, sell, sell.....only a few hours left in the market day today.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Next week we start the final market month of the year......21.....market days.

    What a year it has been.

    Investors are one short month away from locking in record returns. It was just two years ago.....2022....that we were experiencing a very nasty BEAR MARKET. The SP500 was down by (-19.44%) and many investors like myself did worse.

    Of course in classic long term fashion......the SP500 was up by +24.23% in 2023 and is now up by +27.11 YTD this year.

    In one month.....the returns of 2024 will be recorded in the historical record......and we will all move forward with the same "0%" YTD start to the year. As always......it will be a new market and a new beginning for investors. As usual, I will start out with HIGH expectations for the new year. I will NOT re-balance my portfolio. I will let the winners run.

    I will continue my life long investment journey with the same little investing habits:

    1. Invest in BIG CAP, ICONIC, DOMINANT, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, WORLD WIDE ICONIC PRODUCT, companies.

    2. Hold for the long term.

    3. Avoid market timing and trading.

    4. Let winners run.

    5. Maintain a stock side of my portfolio of about 10-15 socks.

    6..Use market probabilities as shown by the academic research by......buying all in all at once when I am ready to buy something.....avoiding market timing and entry points.....and trusting the LONG TERM power of compounding.
     
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  8. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    From the article above. The pundits/experts/forecasters were "surprised." It always seems there is more negativity and gloomy type outlooks. I guess it draws more attention.

    I have always had more optimism with long term investing. Not to the point of being careless either. You have to have some faith, confidence, and belief in what you are doing. Then structure your plan to fit your time, goals, and situation.

    It's a long road. There is no point in getting worked up over most of it. Yes, there will be times that will test your endurance, your nerves, and ability to stay with it. Each investor has to learn about themselves. The market will teach you one way or the other at some point. You have to find and know that balance that allows you to stay with it.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ONLY....two hours left today. I am hanging in there so far with a good day.....compliments of NVDA.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Something that any investor should understand.

    This Thanksgiving, Be Thankful for Free Markets
    The Pilgrims learned this lesson the hard way. Fast forward 400 years, and many Americans have forgotten.

    https://reason.com/2024/11/28/this-thanksgiving-be-thankful-for-free-markets/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    (ID 200077001 © Chernetskaya | Dreamstime.com)

    "As we gather this Thanksgiving, it's easy to take abundance for granted.

    Leftovers are practically guaranteed.

    It wasn't always this way.

    For most of history, there were no Thanksgiving feasts. Hunger, if not starvation, was the norm.

    Today, supermarkets are stocked with exotic foods from all over the world. Most of it is more affordable than ever. Even after President Joe Biden's 8 percent inflation, Americans spend less than 12 percent of our income on food, half of what they spent 100 years ago.

    Why?

    Because free markets happened. Capitalism happened.

    When there is rule of law and private property, and people feel secure that no thief or government will take their property, farmers find new ways to grow more on less land. Greedy entrepreneurs lower costs and deliver goods faster. Consumers have better options.

    Yet today many Americans trash capitalism, demanding government "fixes" to make sure everyone gets equal amounts of this and that.


    But it's in countries with the most government intervention where there are empty store shelves and hungrier people.

    In socialist Venezuela, affordable food is hard to find.

    In Cuba, government was going to make everything plentiful. But people suffered so much that, to prevent starvation, the Castros broke from communist principles and rented out state-owned land to private capitalists.

    Millions still go hungry around the world. The cause is rarely drought or "income inequality" or colonialism, but government control. Corruption, tariffs, political self-dealing, and short-sighted regulations block food from reaching those who need it most.

    This week, we celebrate the Pilgrims, who learned this lesson the hard way.

    When they first landed in America, they tried communal living. The harvest was shared equally. That seemed fair.

    But it failed miserably. A few Pilgrims worked hard, but others didn't, claiming "weakness and inability," as William Bradford, the governor of the colony, put it.

    They nearly starved.

    Desperate, Bradford tried another approach. "Every family," he wrote, "was assigned a parcel of land."

    Private property! Capitalism! Suddenly, more pilgrims worked hard.


    Of course they did. Now they got to keep what they made.

    Bradford wrote, "It made all hands very industrious."

    He spelled out the lesson: "The failure of this experiment of communal service, which was tried for several years, and by good and honest men proves the emptiness of the theory…taking away of private property, and the possession of it in community…would make a state happy and flourishing."

    Fast forward 400 years, and many Americans have forgotten what Bradford learned.

    I see why socialism is popular. The idea of one big, harmonious collective feels good.

    But it brings disaster.

    Family dinners already have plenty of disagreements—children fight; adults bicker. Imagine what that would be like among millions of strangers.

    Collectivist systems encourage dependency, stifle initiative, and waste resources.

    The same communal conceit that nearly starved the Pilgrims destroyed lives in the Soviet Union and led to mass starvation in China.


    When everyone is forced into the same plan, most people will take as much as they can and produce as little as they can get away with.

    Economists call it the "tragedy of the commons" referring to a common plot of land, controlled by, say, sheep owners. Each has an incentive to breed more sheep, which then eat the common's grass until all of it is gone, and everyone goes hungry.

    Only when the commons is divided into private property does each owner agree to limit his herd's grazing so there will be enough for his sheep to eat tomorrow.

    These same principles apply to many aspects of our lives: We thrive when individuals have a deed to their property and are confident that they can keep what they create. Then they create more.

    That's what the Pilgrims learned: Incentives matter. Capitalist ownership is what creates American abundance.

    Every Thanksgiving, I'm thankful for free markets and private property.

    They are the ingredients of prosperity."

    MY COMMENT

    AMEN. Seems so simple....yet.....we are so quick to throw it all away. What a shame.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ok....the short day is......done....stick a fork in it.

    I had a good day with seven of nine stocks UP today. GOOGL and CMG were my two that were DOWN. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.73%.

    MOVING ON UP.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ok the....short.....week that was.

    DOW year to date +19.08%
    DOW five days +2.37%

    SP500 year to date +27.19%
    SP500 five days +1.48%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +26.62%
    NASDAQ 100 five days +1.06%

    NASDAQ year to date +30.15%
    NASDAQ five days +1.33%

    RUSSELL year to date +21.04%
    RUSSELL five days +2.95%

    Today at the close my entire portfolio is at.....+66.84% YTD. Last week it was......+66.07%.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    If anyone had told me at the start of the year that I would be sitting at +67%.....going into the last 4 weeks of the year....I would have told them that was NUTS.

    But....here I am......and....probably some on here are above that gain....perhaps even a significant bit above.

    What an EPIC year. It just goes to show.....you never know what the markets will give you.....in any particular year. This is why I am fully invested all the time. Since the annual markets are impossible to predict....I want to be fully invested all the time to capture these gains.
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I might have to adjust.....UP....my SP500 prediction for year end 2025 that I just made a few days ago. I am predicting SP500 at 6800 to 6900 at year end 2025.

    BUT:

    Dow jumps nearly 200 points to record in short session, S&P 500 posts best month of 2024

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose to new heights on Friday amid a shortened trading day that capped a strong month for equities.

    The S&P 500 added 0.56% to 6,032.38, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.83% to 19,218.17.The Dow climbed 188.59 points, or 0.42%, to end at 44,910.65. Both the Dow and S&P 500 notched new intraday and closing highs.

    Some of the upward momentum came from chip stocks, which popped after Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration was considering additional barriers on the sale of semiconductor equipment to China that weren’t as strong as previously expected. Lam Research rallied more than 3%, while Nvidia jumped more than 2%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)
    added 1.3%.

    A fairly broad advance propelled the S&P 500 into uncharted territory. About three out of every five S&P 500 members finished the session in the green.

    Those moves came as traders looked to the end of a winning week and month. November trading largely centered on the postelection rally seen on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.

    The Dow added 1.4% this week, bringing its gain for November to 7.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each advanced 1.1% on the week, ending 2024′s penultimate month higher by more than 5% and 6%, respectively. With those gains, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their best months of 2024.

    The small cap-focused Russell 2000
    outperformed in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts. The Russell 2000 surged 10.8% this month, helped by a gain of 1.2% this week.

    “The prevailing takeaway from November, to me, is that what was true before the election has remained true after the election,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management. “As we head into December, it’s really hard to fade this bull market here, with all the things going right, the election in the rearview and a seasonal tailwind that still has some room to run.”

    Stocks have also been lifted late this year by expectations that interest rates remain on a downward course, which raises the present value of future earnings and should boost the economy. Fed funds futures are now pricing in around a 66% likelihood that the central bank will lower rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next month, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool.

    The stock market was dark Thursday and closed at 1 p.m. ET on Friday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Friday trading volume on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq was less than two-thirds the past 30 days’ daily average.

    No market corrections yet in 2024

    There hasn’t been a stock market correction, or a pullback of 10% or more, in the S&P 500
    this year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.


    Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a correction once every 346 days, almost once a year, the research firm said. The market has been stronger in recent years, however, as half the yearly periods since 2000 haven’t had such a pullback.

    The S&P 500 is up more than 26% in 2024, on track for its best year since 2021.'

    MY COMMENT

    No correction this year........YES. But some individual stocks have gone into correction mode at time over the year. The BULL MARKET that started way back in about June of 2022......at the height of the BEAR MARKET....is alive and well.

    On June 17, 2022 the SP500 started back up from a low for the year. It gained steam and than retested the lows on October 14, 2022. After that is was steadily UP.....for the rest of the year. It had a very slight pause in October.......and than....powered up for the rest of the year.

    During this time span....of course.....we were hearing a constant chorus of negativity. It was all a big trap......the markets were going to tank......we were doomed. Most people lacked the ability to see REALITY.

    The nice thing is for long term investors......none of this mattered. In the end....they were going to win regardless.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    No doubt a burning question.....for a few....very few on here.

    How do stocks usually perform during the holiday season?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-usually-perform-during-holiday-120500987.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "With the year-end holiday season upon us, many investors are taking a break from their screens to travel and catch up with family and friends.

    For other investors, particularly professional ones like fund managers, the year-end holidays are an important period of portfolio management that may be characterized by disposing of certain stocks to minimize capital gains taxes or make last-minute additions.

    Historical stock market performance: Thanksgiving through New Year’s

    Here’s a look at how the stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, has performed during the holiday period — from market close the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to the last trading day of the year for the last 20 years (2004 – 2023).

    [​IMG]
    There have been more gains (15) than losses (5) during the Thanksgiving-New Year's holiday period, from 2004-2023.
    Google Finance via Google Sheets

    How does the stock market usually perform between Thanksgiving Day and New Year’s?

    During the last 20 years, the market typically eked out small gains or losses in the holiday period from Thanksgiving to the New Year. There have been more holiday-season gains (15) than there have been losses (5) for the S&P 500 over the 20-year period. The biggest increase during the holiday period was 8.3% in 2011. The largest decrease was 5.4% in 2018.

    There have also been a few instances when the market performed better during the holiday period than it did during the entire year. In 2007, the S&P's gain during the Thanksgiving and New Year holiday period was just slightly better than its annual increase. In 2008, just at the tail end of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, the S&P rose 1.8% during the holidays, compared to a 38.5% overall decline for the year. In 2018 and 2022, the loss was smaller than for either year. In 2011, the market gained 8.3% during the holiday period, versus being unchanged for the entire year.

    On the flip side, for the holiday periods in 2005, 2014, and 2015, the market underperformed the entire year.

    For the most part, however, the market’s overall annual performance has been better than its performance between Thanksgiving and New Year’s.

    Does tax-loss harvesting drive stock prices down at year-end?

    Many investors engage in tax-loss harvesting toward the end of the year. This is the practice of selling some losing stocks to increase one’s capital losses for the year so that they can help offset any capital gains when measured for tax purposes.

    Judging by the market's year-end performance during the last 20 years, however, the impact of tax-loss harvesting doesn't seem enough to drive the market down as a whole."

    MY COMMENT

    Looks like the past 20 years show a slight bias to the positive in the final weeks of the year.....but....not very significant gains.

    In the old days in December the typical topic was......."Window Dressing"......as fund managers and other financial managers would sell non-performing stocks and funds and "dress up" their portfolio with the big names from the year.

    With the strong positive bias of the BULL MARKET.....we should have a "probability" of a gain this year to year end.

    it will be nice if we can add 1-4% to the big gains that most people are sitting on right now.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I mention this stock often....of course there is a reason.....It dominates my entire portfolio.

    Nvidia's Growing Faster Than You Think. This Table Proves It.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-growing-faster-think-table-131500288.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Like clockwork, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) delivered another round of explosive growth in its third-quarter earnings report, but investors seemed to be missing the most impressive part of the performance. The company didn't mention it in the earnings call or press release, consigning it instead to the "CFO Commentary" section of its earnings report.

    By now, most investors know that the data center segment is driving Nvidia's growth. While Nvidia's business spans everything from gaming to autonomous vehicles to visualization tools like the Omniverse, its success in the data center business, driven by the explosive growth of AI, has stolen the narrative and now makes up the vast majority of Nvidia's revenue.

    While overall revenue in the fiscal 2025 third quarter jumped 94% from a year ago to $35.1 billion, growth in the data center segment was even stronger, climbing 112% from a year ago to $30.8 billion.

    However, Nvidia breaks down its data center revenue into two categories. It brings in revenue from "networking" and "compute." Compute refers to the components that run applications on a server, such as processors and memory chips. Networking includes components like switches and routers that provides the connectivity and the security needed for the applications to run.

    AI training and inference is driven by the compute components so it makes sense that compute makes up the bulk of that revenue. Data center networking revenue in the third quarter grew just 20% year over year to $3.1 billion, while data center compute revenue was up 132% to $27.6 billion.

    The data center compute figure looks like the best reflection of the underlying growth in Nvidia's business, even with the discrepancy between demand and supply as the company said several times on the earnings call that the business is supply constrained and it expects those constraints to continue for the next several quarters, especially on the Blackwell platform.

    Data center compute revenue also grew 22% sequentially, above 17% overall sequential growth for the whole company. and 17% sequential growth in the data center. The chart below shows the performance in data center compute revenue over the last several quarters.

    The data center compute platform is at the core of Nvidia's AI offering. It accelerates the most compute-intensive workloads, and it includes a wide range of products such as APIs, software development kits (SDKs), its DGX Cloud, which is an AI training-as-a-service platform, and GPUs, DPUs, and AI enterprise software. All of that makes it very difficult to compete with Nvidia and helps explain why the data center business is growing so fast.

    Revenue growth is heating up

    The other telling data point is that while Nvidia's year-over-year revenue growth in the data center compute segment continued to decelerate, sequential revenue growth, which is arguably a better barometer of growth, accelerated from 17% to 22%, lifting a similar acceleration in overall revenue from 15% to 17%.

    Sequential growth of 22% would translate to a 122% year-over-year growth rate if the business grew at that pace over four quarters. Given the launch of the new Blackwell platform and management's commentary about demand outstripping supply for the next several quarters, the company could maintain a growth rate similar to that over the next year.

    What's next for Nvidia

    Nvidia stock fell slightly on the earnings report. Investors seemed to think guidance was underwhelming as the company called for year-over-year revenue growth to slow to 70% in the fourth quarter, with the top line reaching $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%.

    However, Nvidia has a long history of topping its guidance, and it looks like a good bet to do so again in the fourth quarter, given the scorching growth from the data center compute business and locked-in demand for its Blackwell platform.

    Don't be surprised to see Nvidia top that forecast again three months from now. The business is on fire. It continues to deliver stellar results, and there's little in the way to slow it down."

    MY COMMENT

    The above is extremely positive for NVDA and the future. As it is.....the recent earnings with "nearly" 100% gain in revenue from a year prior.......would have been considered historic for any other company.

    For NVDA....it was ignored and disrespected....kicking off stock losses and a little correction. WTF.....WTF.

    As to the future.....it is very bright....if the markets can bring themselves to recognize what is right in front of their faces. Although AMAZING earnings are worth nothing if the markets simply REFUSE to see them. It is like the old saying........."if a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it....did it make a sound?".
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  19. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

    Joined:
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    Hi W,
    I'm curious how did your portfolio perform during dismal years of 2011 and 2015 comparing to the S&P 500?
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
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    TODAY......PLTR up again....so far. The stock is on an epic run lately. I put my kid and their spouse into PLTR as a full position in their accounts on July 11. Since that time they have a gain of 137%......in under 5 months.

    I also have my sister's account in a FULL position in PLTR. I have not looked at her account today so I dont now the date or gain.....but it is BIG. I will edit this post later today when I look at her account.
     

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