The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I wish I could tell you Strathmore.

    BUT....I quit keeping data on gains back in about 2002 to 2005 time span. I have never kept much data......I see it as worthless and backward looking....just busy-work. My focus is always forward.

    The only data I have is what is reflected in this thread.....I still keep no data. I have tried at times to go back and use the account performance tools in Schwab.....to see my past returns.......but for some reason....the furthest it will go back is 2016.

    All I can tell you from memory is that up to that time.....2002 to 2005.....and up to the start of this thread..... I was significantly above the SP500 over my lifetime. Keep in mind that I had some EPIC stocks back in the 1990 to 2000 era which substantially boosted my lifetime gains.......SBUX, NKE, COST, MSFT, and HD.

    As to 2011 or 2015.....I have no......specific....memory. I am sure I was nicely positive since the last down years I can remember before that time was 2008/2009. AND.....I sold out my entire portfolio in about May of 2008 and did not comeback into the markets till about March? of 2009 when I felt that the risk of further losses was limited to about another 10%. So I missed most of the 2008/2009 losses in the markets and my timing getting back into the markets.......was very nice going forward.

    As I have said before on here......I sold out in May of 2008 because for the first time in my life I felt there was a SIGNIFICANT......"possibility"....perhaps 25% or higher....of a world wide economic and banking collapse. By March? of 2009.....I felt the losses in the markets had been so large that the forward losses could not exceed another 10%. I was willing to take that "potential" 10% hit to get back in the markets.

    In hindsight my timing getting out and back in was excellent. BUT.....it really had nothing to do with market timing.....It was simply a situation of leaving the markets and trying to preserve assets during a time when a world wide banking and economic collapse would have been CATASTROPHIC.

    I assume that I had nice gains in both the years you ask about. I also see that the SP500 was slightly positive in total return in both those years. At that time my BIG CAP portfolio on the stock side was not as TECH heavy as it is now. I still owned a lot of the old time BIG CAP consumer giants like PG, etc, etc.
     
    #22281 WXYZ, Dec 2, 2024
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2024
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of record keeping and data. In my daily life I dont keep any paper or records. I keep the most current account statement for all brokerage and Schwab accounts. When the new one comes I shred the old one.

    I dont keep any other bills, statements, bank records, or anything else. I look at them when the come....verify them.... and shred them immediately. I just dont see any value in having files and files of paper statements and data. Keeping that paper to me is just....bUSY-WORK....and has no value.

    I guess the ONLY thing I have in terms of historic paper.....is my tax returns. I have them going back over most of my post-college work life. I did shred some of the very early tax returns from that time span.......and I am sorry I did.......simply because it is interesting to go back and look at what they show about earnings back than and how far we came over our lives.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above.....I also remember the time span after 2008/2009 was often called the LOST DECADE. I remember that well and thinking....WTF are they talking about.....it is not lost for me, I am way up. Of course...... I did not ride the markets down in that 2008/2009 collapse......and I got back in at very cheap prices.

    I wish I could tell you more.

    That is one reason that I started this thread......so it would be a day by day record of the journey of a long term investor with real numbers in real time.

    At this point there is more than SIX YEARS of my data, trades, and performance in this thread. AND....the thread covers some really extreme events.....like the pandemic.....the nasty 2002 BEAR MARKET.....a couple of presidential elections.....etc, etc, etc.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do see from using the "performance tools" on Schwab that from 1-1-2017 to today.....EIGHT YEARS......I have a "cumulative return" of.....+400.23%. I have an "annualized return of......+28.35%. That is the maximum time span it will show me.

    NOTE.....the figures above are highly ABNORMAL and UNREALISTIC for any investor.......me included. I dont expect to see these sorts of gains going forward. I REMAIN fully committed to my two investment goals....in spite of the above..

    1. Achieve a long term average return of 10% or more.

    2. Try to (passively, no trading) beat the SP500 each year.
     
    #22284 WXYZ, Dec 2, 2024
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2024
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here we are about 1.5 hours into the markets today.....and....I have not mentioned them at all. it was a good green open but now the DOW is red. The SP500 is just over flat. The NASDAQ still has a nice gain....but is showing some weakness depending on what you own.

    Here is one little story today.

    Super Micro says independent review found no evidence of fraud, will hire new CFO

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-hire-cfo-says-143815868.html
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the markets.

    Nasdaq pops as Dow, S&P 500 hold near records to kick off final month of banner 2024

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...off-final-month-of-banner-2024-130323759.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The Nasdaq touched an intraday record high on Monday as investors look ahead to a week of labor market data that could influence the scope of interest rate cuts.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged up roughly 0.2%, coming off a record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.3% from its recent all-time closing high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped 0.9%.


    The S&P 500 and Dow are entering December on a high note, having ended November with their best monthly gains in a year. The rally got a boost last month thanks to optimism around President-elect Donald Trump's victory. Year to date, the benchmark S&P is up over 25%, while the Dow has gained nearly 20%.

    In individual stocks, shares in Jeep maker Stellantis (STLA) sank after CEO Carlos Tavares suddenly resigned. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) stock gained after the company said its CEO, Pat Gelsinger, had retired from the struggling chipmaker.

    Investors are starting to count down to the November jobs report on Friday, a key input for the Federal Reserve's policy making, as well as to job openings and private payrolls readings.

    A surprise monthly jobs print could reset the expectations for rate cuts that have supported stocks' stellar performance this year. That said, bets on a slower path of Fed easing haven't made a significant dent in the recent appetite for stocks.

    Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) climbed as investors assessed Trump's latest tariff threat. The incoming president warned BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) not to create a rival to the US currency, saying on Saturday that they will face 100% tariffs if they move away from it.

    Trump has already put markets on alert with promises to hit Canada, Mexico, and China with big new tariffs. Wall Street is concerned about the likely impact on inflation as well as the prospect of a trade war with the US's biggest trading partners."

    MY COMMENT

    An absolutely NORMAL market day and week. No real news going on. I note that the Holiday shopping season is firming up to be a historic amount of money....pushing toward a TRILLION DOLLARS.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO......I am not going to talk about the......"pardon". It is not a "real life" event of any significance to me.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just finished my news and article reading to start the day. Really NOTHING going on. AND....that is a good thing. I guess the markets will just have to make their own way today however they wish....with no outside BS to drive them up or down.

    My preferred course....as a long term investor.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Like everything in investing....this stuff seems so obvious and simple. Critical information for any financial plan.

    Think you know your 401(k)? Here are 5 game-changing facts for a better retirement
    Vested balances, the surprising impact of small contributions and the power of deciding between a Roth 401(k) and traditional 401(k) are important to know


    https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/t...-here-5-game-changing-facts-better-retirement

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "You've most likely been setting aside a slice of each paycheck to feed into your 401(k) — but how much do you understand about this crucial piece of your financial future?

    Your 401(k) isn't just a retirement account; it's a c
    ornerstone of long-term security, a tool for growing your nest egg and an opportunity to take full control of your golden years. Yet, beneath the surface of this key utensil in your financial toolbelt lies a world of opportunities, rules and strategies that could significantly impact your future.

    Here are five essential tidbits of information to help you take control of your 401(k) and build your retirement savings with confidence.

    1. Vested Balances

    Companies often have vesting schedules, which means the money you think you have earned from their contributions isn't actually yours to claim until you meet a certain tenure of service.

    You might be surprised to learn that the entire balance displayed in your 401(k) account might not be yours to claim — at least, not yet.

    Many employers have vesting schedules, which determine how long you'll need to stay with the company to fully claim their contributions. These schedules mean the difference between walking away with a partial or full employer match. For example, if your company's contributions are fully vested at three years of service, leaving for another job without meeting that threshold could mean you're only entitled to a portion — or even none — of their contributions.

    Let's say your 401(k) account shows a balance of $30,000, with $20,000 coming from your personal contributions and $10,000 from your employer's match. If you're only 50% vested due to your tenure, you'd only walk away with $25,000 — your $20,000 contribution and 50% of your employer's match.

    Knowing your vesting schedule can help you make informed decisions about staying with your employer or moving on to other opportunities.

    2. Roth 401(k) vs. Traditional 401(k)

    401ks can come in two types — Roth and traditional. Picking which one best suits your needs is critical to maximizing your retirement potential.

    Not all 401(k) plans are created equal, and choosing between a Roth 401(k) and a traditional 401(k) can significantly impact your financial future. Understanding the difference is key to maximizing your retirement savings and making tax-smart decisions.

    With a Roth 401(k), you contribute after-tax dollars, meaning taxes on money put into the account are paid upfront. The reward? When you withdraw funds during retirement, they're completely tax-free. It's an excellent option if you want to get your tax concerns out of the way and get a better feel of how much money you might be working with once you put away your timecard.

    Roth 401(k)s have downsides as well, however. You might feel the financial pinch immediately after changing your 401(k) selection and finding that your paycheck is smaller than before. Roth contributions also don't provide an immediate reduction in your taxable income, meaning you could miss out on a valuable tax break right now.

    A more popular traditional 401(k) option, on the other hand, might offer an immediate tax break, but at the expense of paying upon withdrawal. Deciding between the two depends on your current tax situation and your expectations for retirement.

    3. Small Amounts are Powerful Amounts

    Setting aside just 1% of your income for retirement can have a massive impact down the road.

    It's easy to feel like small contributions to your 401(k) won't make much of a difference, but the truth is, even seemingly minor adjustments can have a profound impact over time.

    "Employees often don't realize how much impact investing just 1% or more or starting one year sooner can have on retirement earnings by the time you reach retirement," Michael Shamrell, vice president of Thought Leadership for Fidelity Workplace, told Fox News Digital.

    This is the magic of compounding interest — the phenomenon where your savings generate earnings and those earnings, in turn, generate even more earnings. Increasing your contributions by just 1% of your salary can compound to potentially add thousands to your nest egg with time, landing you in a better position for retirement instead of keeping that 1% of your paycheck to enjoy right now.

    Starting early has a similarly profound impact. Though it's never too late to decide to secure your financial future, planning for retirement beginning at age 25 would grant you significant leverage over someone whose retirement investments began a decade later.

    The takeaway? Time is your most valuable asset. Starting early, contributing consistently and understanding the big impacts of small changes are all keys to securing your future.

    4. Employer Matches: Don't Miss Out on Free Money

    Taking advantage of your employer's 401k match is an easy way to get "free money" for retirement.

    Free money sounds wonderful, doesn't it?

    Your 401(k) isn't just a vehicle for your savings — it also gives your employer the opportunity to invest in your future. You probably know that most employers offer a matching contribution, which is essentially free money for your retirement. What is a "match," exactly? This occurs when employers contribute to your 401k based on how much you choose to contribute.

    For example, your employer might match 100% of your contributions up to 3% of your salary or 50% of your contributions up to 6%, meaning you would need to contribute 6% of your income to 401(k) to achieve that maximum benefit from your employer. Many workers fail to maximize this benefit's potential by simply not contributing enough to trigger that full match.

    "If your employer matches any portion of your retirement contributions, consider maxing out by contributing up to at least the match amount," Shamrell advised.

    "This is considered part of your compensation package and is, in essence, free money. Many people don't realize this, which is why 1 in 4 workers miss out on their full match."

    5. You can save more than you think video

    Many people assume they're limited to the annual 401(k) contribution cap, which comes in at $23,000 or $30,500 with catch-up contributions if you're 50 or older this year, but you can actually save more than that.

    "You can actually contribute more than the annual 401(k) limit with after-tax contributions," Shamrell said.

    Though Roth IRAs (or independent retirement accounts) have income caps, 401(k) plans are different when it comes to Roth contributions, according to Fidelity.

    "Once you see that you will max out your contributions, you may want to consider making after-tax contributions if your plan allows. These are a third type of contribution to your workplace savings plan, in addition to pre-tax and Roth," an article from the company reads.

    These contributions can be made at the same time as your other contributions. But Fidelity advises making sure that your contributions aren't so high they "prevent you from fully making pre-tax and Roth contributions first.""

    MY COMMENT

    It is CRITICAL to max out enough into your 401K to capture your entire match. Yes you can consider this...."free money".....but it is not. This is what your company is paying to you for NOT providing you with a pension.

    Your 401K is the first....most critical....part of your financial and investing future. For many people this is their one investment in the stock markets.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As we approach the new year......I INVITE.....any new investors or anyone that is reading here that is not an investor..... yet.....to JOIN US. Join the world of long term....lifetime..... stock and fund investors. Begin the process to take care of your and your families future.

    Yes it all seems intimidating and scary at first. All the jargon and numbers are scary and confusing. BUT....it really is simple and obvious....if you get away from the market timing, Technical Analysis, and trading mentality.

    it is basically saving money in an account.....which you invest in something like a SP500 Index Fund to start out.

    There are a lot of posters here that are WILLING AND ABLE to help you get started. There is also much content here to help you get started. EVERY....one of us on this board at one time was a brand new investor....just like you.

    TAKE THAT FIRST STEP......JOIN US AS AN INVESTOR.

    New, or young, or inexperienced investors,....are highly valued in this thread. Feel free to join us and post something about yourself and where you are as a new investor.

    DO IT FOR YOURSELF and for the FUTURE OF YOUR CHILDREN AND FAMILY.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just checked my account for the first time. I have a nice gain so far today. I have five stocks in the green and four in the red. My red stocks are.....PLTR (junior position), CMG (junior position, HD, and COST.

    I guess I should not have been bragging about PLTR earlier today.....LOL.
     
  13. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Great posts above W! Always get that company match! Also there is a lot of benefit's to Roth's early in a person's career where they most likely make the least amount (lowest tax bracket) and have the longest to compound. As to all the new investors, young and old. Investing is like planting a tree, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today.

    This year has been an interesting year on 'junior positions'. With a month to go here is my take on the W list.
    1) PLTR - So far it's a home run. I look forward to seeing where this one runs to. It's a leader in it's field, and a hard entry point. I think, like NVDA the moat is only going to get larger.
    2) CMG - I think this one got some unfair treatment. With the media bashing and change in leadership over, I would track this into probably Q3 next year and see how it fairs
    3)SMCI - Probably should have some sort of class action against it. All investors have to go off are the numbers, if those all all made up, a crime has been committed.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....poor CMG had some social media issues for much of the early days that I held it. it has now mostly worked its way back to even or a bit more on some shares....depending on what account I am looking at.

    I like the company very much and have no plans to sell. In fact if I had some money going into my account I would add to it. in some of the accounts that I manage like my kids and sister....it is more of a normal size position. it is important to me to have some NON-TECH positions in my few stocks.

    I STILL have good hope for it over the next 1-2 years as I continue to watch it. As I have said a few times on here....not just recently.....if I had the funds the #1 stock on my buy list is....WMT.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just looked at my various accounts. the cumulative total of all the accounts combined has just achieved a new milestone total today.

    The POWER of long term investing.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes....to me the number one goal of any investor should be to max out their 401K to get the fullest match possible. After that....if it was me.....I would save any additional money in a TAXABLE brokerage account.

    It is a great advantage and tool in life to have a nice FAT brokerage account available that is NOT retirement money.

    My sister has an old ROTH IRA account with about $300,000. Other than that..... ALL the accounts that I manage are TAXABLE brokerage accounts. Even those of my one kid and her husband. They have great government pensions that are vested. So my total focus is building up their non-retirement brokerage accounts. I have been putting much of my focus on those two accounts for them and have now worked the two of them up to about $710,000......a new high....as of today. Not too bad for early 40's......41 to 43 years old.

    The seed funds for the two accounts have come from various sources. First.....each one puts $500 a month into the SP500 Index. Second...... they have owned four houses over their life and each time they have sold and moved up they have been able to save a....."good chunk" (investing term of art).....of the sales proceeds and put it in the brokerage accounts. Third....their annual expenses are below their income and they save up money and make it available to me to invest in their two accounts....perhaps another $5000 to $15,000 per year.

    ALL....the accounts above including the ROTH are invested the same as my other accounts.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am sitting at the oil change place. Regarding the above.

    TireSmoke. I consider it good if 1 of 3, or, 1 of 5 new stocks makes the cut and becomes a long term investment. So far I am happy with 2 of the three you mentioned above.

    My sister mentioned above has 2 accounts with I manage. The Roth and a taxable brokerage account. The largest accounts that I manage are my two accounts and her taxable account.

    I am still managing 6 family accounts and the family trust account.

    The good thing is I am now only doing 2 family tax returns. At one time I was doing 6.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I know I have a gain today. But I can not look till I get home.
     
  19. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

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    Thanks for your input.
    That was a great timing. Was 2008 the only time when you sold out your whole accounts?
    If I remember well you sold part of your portfolio during Covid crash.
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes 2008/2009 was the only time in my life I have......"successfully"....sold out my entire account.

    I thought I could do the same thing when the pandemic hit......I cant remember if I sold it all or just the stocks. I figured I could avoid a 25% to 35% drop....and than jump back in.....and leverage a huge profit.

    BUT......within a short time, I think 1-2 weeks.....perhaps longer.... (I cant remember and am too lazy to go back in the thread and look)......the FED and/or GOVERNMENT took decisive action........and kicked off a HUGE RALLY......so I rushed to get everything back in and invested. I think it took me about 1-2 weeks to get it all reinvested.

    If I had simply held on through that big rally......my thesis DID come true over the following months as the market tanked.....but at that point I was not willing to try to be a market timer....having FAILED MISERABLY initially. The RALLY that sucked me back into the markets was just a SUCKER RALLY.

    The COVID attempt was pure and simple "market timing".....based on what I thought was....."probability" . My thesis was actually right.....but I got suckered into jumping back into the market way too quickly.

    I than rode out the big market drop that COVID actually caused over many months.

    The 2008/2009 selling of my entire account......was "asset protection".....in the face of a possible world wide banking/economic collapse and a resulting world wide depression of EPIC PROPORTIONS.

    If there had been an ACTUAL world wide economic/banking collapse in 2008/2009.....I am not sure what I did would have made any difference.....it would have been FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON....but I had to try.

    The two times above....are the ONLY times I have sold out my entire portfolio....or even part of my portfolio.....over the past 55 years.

    So my record is.....50/50.

    I guess the above is part of the lessons of this thread......especially my FAILED market timing experiment at the start of COVID.
     
    #22300 WXYZ, Dec 2, 2024
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2024
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