This is a very cool and interesting story. Happy 400th birthday to the world’s oldest bond https://www.ft.com/content/5122706e-39ca-4bbc-95cc-373188a9b1c9 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Four hundred years ago — on New Year’s Day in 1624 — drifting ice on the river Lek in the Netherlands smashed up a dike outside Utrecht. This was a pretty big problem in a country that is roughly one-third below sea level. Soon, the region was flooded, with even Amsterdam threatened by the water. The locals eventually managed to staunch the flood, but they still needed to do a full, durable rebuild — which would be extremely expensive. Fortunately, the Dutch were brilliant, sophisticated financial pioneers, and had developed the era’s most vibrant bond market. The local water authority — called Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams — swiftly sold over 50 bonds that raised about 23,000 Carolus guilders to finance the repairs. Of these bonds the only surviving one is a 1,200 guilder bond sold on December 10, 1624, to a wealthy woman in Amsterdam called Elsken Jorisdochter. In return for her money, the water board promised Jorisdochter, her descendants or anyone who owned the bearer bond 2.5 per cent interest in perpetuity. Remarkably, this bond is still alive and pays €13.61 of interest a year. Yesterday, the current owner — the New York Stock Exchange — collected £299.42 of owed interest for the bond’s 400th birthday, which FT Alphaville was able to attend. Keen readers will remember that FTAV wrote about the handful of surviving Dutch perpetuals last year. So why are we banging on about this again? Well, partly because this bond is a physical, living reminder of how fixed-income markets built the modern world, which bears repeating. Bonds have won wars and broken countries. They have funded hospitals, slave-worked tobacco farms and sugar plantations. They’re now bankrolling the data centres and chips that power artificial intelligence, as well as more obvious boondoggles, like Manchester United. As a result, it’s highly likely that over half of all global debt is in the form of bonds rather than loans (comprehensive and accurate global data on this is patchy). This is a big deal, as MainFT laid out in a magazine piece last year. To take but one example, America’s biggest lender is no longer a bank; it’s BlackRock. Here are a few big banks and asset managers ranked by the size of their lending in the form of bonds or loans. But mostly we keep going on about it because this is so obviously amazing. The 1624 bond is a financial wonder of the world. If you don’t like a four-century-old Dutch goatskin perpetual that still pays interest then I’m afraid we can’t be friends. With that in mind, here are some more details about the genesis of the world’s oldest living bond, and Tuesday’s 400th birthday celebration — we even got pretty little cakes decorated with the original coat of arms of the issuer. The first thing to understand is that water authorities like the Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams were hardcore. After all, in Europe’s flood-ridden lowlands — the Netherlands was sometimes called the bog of Europe — they were a matter of life and death. Not just to you, your family and your community, but the neighbouring village or town as well. In 1323 the count of Holland sent his army to burn down a town as punishment for it not having done necessary repairs to its dykes, according to William Goetzmann and Geert Rouwenhorst’s The Origins of Value. Until the 19th century, the water authorities enjoyed legal rights to punish local slackers, including branding, flogging, banishment and execution. The Rijnland water board even had its own gallows and a whipping post next to one of its dikes, which sends a pretty powerful signal. And they took paying their debts just as seriously. The Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams no longer exists, but its modern descendant is the Hoogheemraadschap De Stichtse Rijnlanden, which is based just outside Utrecht. The original bond was signed on December 10, 1624 in a building that is now part of Utrecht University, which hosted the event in the very same building yesterday. Most of the bonds the Lekdijk Bovendams issued were eventually bought back — they could be redeemed at any time at the discretion of the water authority — while others have been lost over the years. But De Stichtse Rijnlanden still services seven of these Methuselah bonds, of which the 1624 one is the oldest. And here is what the text of the bond itself says, translated from old Dutch. Dense, but a lot less wordy than most bond prospectuses today. "I, Didirck Mode, Canon of the Church of St Mary within Utrecht present Treasurer of the Leckendijck Bovendams declare herewith, in that function and following the decision of the Gentlemen Dike Governor and Board of the said Leckendijck dated the 9th December 1624 and the subsequent deed of authorisation of the executive committee of their Mightinesses the Estates of the province of Utrecht dated the 9th of December aforesaid, to owe and have sold to and for the benefit of Elsken Jorisdochter, her inheritors or anyone possessing claim the sum of one thousand two hundred Carolus guilders which I declare to have received in full from the said Elsken Jorisdochter for the purpose of building a new quay, two willow shore guards and a straight new dike stretch for the damaged Lek dike beyond Tiel which (God willing) because of the very high water and strong ice drift on New Year’s Day 1624 broke. [I also declare] to have awarded and given 75 Carolus guilders of twenty stivers apiece per year as heritable annuity, to be paid one half of the annuity aforesaid on the 9 th of June 1625 and the other half the 9th of December following and so on every six months until repayment with all payments entirely free of all taxes, impositions or burdens of whatever name or title none excepted. On such conditions that I or my successors [unreadable] of the aforesaid Leckendijck may, at any time when it pleases us, extinguish, repay, and buy back the said annuity in full at once and not in parts or fractions with the sum of one thousand two hundred Carolus guilders aforesaid and not a penny less and the stiver valued as those minted before this date on condition of paying the interests then due and unpaid and on condition that I and my successors in the aforesaid function accept the contents of this and will register and pass a deed of obligation pertaining to it before the Court of Utrecht or elsewhere if so desired at my cost or that of my successors at once on demand. And in order that it may be clear forever that everything written here has been effected by the decision and authorisation mentioned above, and in order that parties may be better assured, that decision and approval will be written on the back of this and signed without reserve. Towards that end have I, aforesaid Didirck Mode, in the function and by authorization as above, signed this document with my own hand and affixed my seal thereunder on the 10th December 1624." The 1624 bond ended up in NYSE’s possession thanks to a Dutch-American banker called Albert Andriesse, a senior partner in Pierson & Co. and board member of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Andriesse acquired the perpetual at an auction as a historical curio, and on a 1938 visit to New York donated it to the NYSE as a sign of friendship, given how 1624 was the year the city was founded as New Amsterdam. Two years later, Andriesse and his family fled the Netherlands to escape the Nazis, and settled in New York in 1941. There he became an American citizen before passing away in 1965. Even at the time his gift was novel enough to get a brief notice in the New York Times, with the following clip courtesy of his granddaughter, who was at yesterday’s interest payment ceremony. Just take a moment to think about what this bond has survived. The borders of the country now called the Netherlands have changed enormously over the years. There have been multiple revolutions, several pandemics, four different currencies and countless wars. Napoleon subsumed the country entirely at one point. And through it all, it has kept paying interest — albeit with some big gaps here and there (the last time the NYSE collected interest was in 2004). The repairs that it financed are also still there, even though they are somewhat obscured by encroaching nature. NYSE archivists Peter Asch and David D’Onofrio received the interest on behalf of the Big Board, but promptly donated it to a local dike museum we later visited. We couldn’t resist trying to find out the effective yield of the bond though. It was obviously gifted to NYSE, but Asch revealed that a few years ago it was for insurance purposes valued at $35,000. So that means a tidy 4.1 basis points a year. KER-CHING."" MY COMMENT SIMPLY....amazing. Now that is .......long term....investing.
I ended up with a medium LOSS today.....four stocks UP and five DOWN. Plus a loss to the SP500 by 0.37%. Moving on to the COST earnings.
HERE are the COST earnings. Costco beats quarterly sales estimates on steady holiday demand https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-beats-quarterly-sales-estimates-212038154.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) -Costco Wholesale marginally beat Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue on Thursday, as more Americans turned to the membership-only retail chain to shop for everything from food to home furnishings for the holiday season. Shares of the company were up 1.4% in extended trading. The retailer, which sells products in larger packs and has bulk offers on items such as bread and eggs for as low as $3, has seen picky consumers turn to its stores to shop for their holiday needs, including home furnishings and jewelry. The holiday shopping season is shorter in 2024 than previous years, with only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The season saw retailers across the United States roll out discounts and promotions as early as October to beat competition and attract finicky customers. Costco ran pre-Black Friday sales in November, trying to dodge a hit to first-quarter sales growth from the late Thanksgiving weekend this year by offering an LG UltraGear Gaming Monitor for $179, $70 lower than its original price, and JBL headphones for a 30% discount, at $69.99. The company's quarterly revenue rose to $62.15 billion, from $57.80 billion a year earlier. Analysts on average were expecting $62.08 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG." AND Costco beats on earnings as membership fee hike boosts revenue https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/costco-cost-earnings-q1-2025-earnings.html "Key Points Costco topped Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates. The warehouse club was helped by an increase in its annual membership fee. Costco on Thursday beat Wall Street’s quarterly earnings and sales estimates, as it got a boost in part from higher membership fees. Here’s how the warehouse club did for the fiscal first quarter compared to what Wall Street expected, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG: Earnings per share: $4.04 vs. $3.79 expected Revenue: $62.15 billion vs. $62.08 billion expected In the three-month period that ended Nov. 24, Costco’s net income rose to $1.80 billion, or 4.04 per share, from $1.59 billion, or $3.58 per share in the year-ago period. Revenue increased from $57.80 billion in the year-ago period. Costco has benefitted from its reputation for selling bulk items at better value, as U.S. households feel the cumulative effect of higher food and housing prices. The membership-based club also hiked its annual membership fee for the first time in about seven years. The quarterly results are the first Costco has reported since that fee increase took effect in September. Costco’s membership fee revenue came in at $1.17 billion, compared to the $1.16 billion Wall Street had expected. As of Thursday’s close, share of Costco are up nearly 50% so far this year, surpassing the 27% gains of the S&P 500 during the same time period. Shares closed at $988.39 on Thursday." MY COMMENT A good BEAT......every category above is a BEAT......so.....let the punishment begin. AH.....hello....stock split, please. Come on....us loyal members and shareholders deserve a split.
I find this AMAZING......AMAZINGLY BAD. Here is the headline: "COSTCO EKES OUT EARNINGS BEAT AMID UNCERTAIN CONSUMER ENVIRONMENT" Here is the fact: "Here's what Costco reported for its fiscal first quarter, which ended Dec. 4, 2024, compared to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Revenue: $62.15 billion versus $61.98 billion Adjusted earnings per share: $4.04 versus $3.81 Total company comparable sales growth, excluding fuel: 7.2% versus 6.26% US same-store sales growth: 7.2% versus 6.14% Canada same-store sales growth: 6.7 % versus 5.68% Other international sales growth: 7.1% versus 7.08% E-commerce growth: 13.2% versus 14.1% Membership fee revenue: $1.17 billion versus $1.17 billion" MY COMMENT WTF....WTF. A clear......SUBSTANTIAL BEAT......in every category. How is this financial journalism? No need to answer that question.
Don”t torture yourself with these media infused earnings reports. They just add too much bias in many of them and quite often the same report will have a totally different take. Many companies maintain an investor relations site where you can view and download the report without all the extra fluff and opinions. I get more out of those than the media version and I don”t have to sort through all that extra noise.
Yeah I agree.....I often look at investor relations sites. BUT....I cant resist pointing out the CRAZY MEDIA STUFF on here......it is a good lesson for investors and others regarding whether you can TRUST the media. What is a shame is the probable fact that many people believe this......BS.....and their investing suffers as a result. I have no expectations for the regular media....but....I still expect better from the financial media.....since peoples money and lives are depending on them being accurate.
Now....on the topic of the media and COSTCO....here is what I consider a good well done article on the recent earnings. Costco membership growth 'robust,' even amid fee increase: What to know about earnings release https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-membership-growth-robust-even-003142900.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco got off to a good start this holiday shopping season as the retailer racked up increased sales ahead of Black Friday and the official start of consumers' seasonal buying. The members-only warehouse company also got a boost in revenue from higher membership fees, which it began charging in September – its first hike in membership fees in seven years. Costco reported net sales of $61 billion, up 7.5% for the first quarter of the company's 2025 fiscal year, compared to $56.7 billion a year ago, the company said Thursday. The three-month period ended Nov. 24, a week before Black Friday. "Seasonal sell-through appears to be very strong," said Gary Millerchip, Costco's chief financial officer and executive vice president, during a call with investment analysts Thursday. "People are very basic buying this year, but good trends." Revenue from membership fees rose 7.6%, accounting for $1.17 billion, up from $1.08 billion a year ago, the company said. The price of an annual Costco membership rose from $60 to $65 for United States and Canada Gold Star memberships and executive memberships increased from $120 to $130, with the maximum annual 2% reward associated with the executive membership increasing from $1,000 to $1,250. Costco reported revenue of $62.15 billion, up 7.5%, from a year ago. That's higher than the $61.9 billion estimated from Wall Street analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Membership fees brought in $4.8 billion in the previous fiscal year, which ended Sept. 1, 2024, and $1.5 billion for the previous three months, the company reported in September. The company said it now had 77.4 million paid memberships, an increase of 7.6%. Nearly half (47%) were executive memberships. More shoppers came to Costco Costco, which sells products in bulk packages and has discounts on food including eggs for as low as $3, continued to see sales growth as consumers still remain concerned about prices. With a shortened holiday shopping season, Costco joined other retailers in running pre-Black Friday sales in early November. Store traffic rose 5.1% during the period, while comparable tickets (individual customer sales totals) were up 0.1%, the company said. "As consumers across income levels continue to prioritize value, Costco is benefiting from robust membership growth and is generating additional revenue from the recent membership fee increase," said Sky Canaves, principal analyst for retail and ecommerce at eMarketer, told USA TODAY. "Among the major US retailers we track, Costco is one of the few that can boast of meaningful above-average ecommerce growth in 2024," Canaves said. "It's starting from a small base and still has a long runway to expand its online business with additional revenue opportunities coming from the marketplace and retail media network." Costco exec: Sale of gold bars, precious metals drives traffic Costco reported a 13% increase in ecommerce sales during the quarter, with top ecommerce sales categories including gift cards, hardware, home furnishing, health and beauty aids, sporting goods, and gold and jewelry. The company has had success selling gold bars, silver coins and, most recently, platinum bars. Costco members can go to the website to purchase gold bars (currently priced at $2,749.99), platinum bars ($1,049.99), and silver coins ($649.99). Having precious metals has driven "significant traffic" to the company's website, and "it's driving our ability to grow our digital business overall," Millerchip said. In the previous quarter, Costco saw sales increase, but not as high as Wall Street had expected, suggesting consumers were spending with trepidation. The company's shares, which are up 51% so far this year, rose nearly 1% in extended trading." MY COMMENT Well done....factual.....and informative........with much good information that might be of value to someone that wants a light snapshot of this company and how they are doing.
An...."ok"...open today. But...lets see how we are doing once the opening trades settle in and the true direction of the day takes over. so far it has not been much of a week for investors. It is nice to see COST up well over $1000 per share today.
I recognize much of what is in this little article. It definately applies to investors....as they gain experience and their account values balloon. Stop Moving Your Own Goalposts https://newsletter.scottdclary.com/...25&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "I watched my friend Mark break down in his Tesla last week. He's a founder who just crossed $10M in revenue, but he was sitting there telling me he feels like a complete failure. His company grew 300% this year. His team expanded from 5 to 50 people. He just bought his dream house. And yet, he's convinced he's falling behind. "I should be at $20M by now," he says, staring at his phone where some LinkedIn guru is bragging about their $100M exit. "Everyone else seems to be moving so much faster." That's when it hit me: Mark isn't failing at all. He's falling for one of the most dangerous traps in personal growth – the invisible progress paradox. Think about it: Three years ago, Mark was ecstatic about his first $10K month. Now he beats himself up over $800K months. Two years ago, he celebrated hiring his first employee. Now managing 50 people feels like "not scaling fast enough." Last year, a feature in a local business journal made his year. Now national press mentions barely register. His progress didn't disappear. His standards just kept pace with his growth, like a shadow that stretches ahead no matter how far you walk. Mark isn't alone. This pattern shows up everywhere once you start looking for it. The programmer who doesn't see how far they've come because they're too busy stressing about what they haven't learned yet. The writer who can't appreciate their published book because they're focused on the bestseller list they haven't hit. The athlete who forgets they once struggled to run a mile because now they're angry about not qualifying for the Boston Marathon. In the next few minutes, I'm going to break down: Why your brain is wired to erase your progress How high achievers accidentally build their own psychological prisons The counter-intuitive way to maintain ambition without losing perspective A simple system for making your progress visible again But first, you need to understand something crucial… the same drive that got you where you are might be blinding you to how far you've come. The Hidden Cost of Rising Standards Here's what nobody tells you about personal growth. Success can be a form of self-gaslighting. Every time you level up, your brain does something fascinating – it rewrites your definition of "normal." What used to be a summit becomes your new base camp. And while this psychological adaptation helped our ancestors survive, it's creating a crisis of confidence in today's achievement-oriented world. Let me show you how this works: Remember your first presentation at work? Your hands were shaking, your voice cracked, and getting through it felt like climbing Everest. Fast forward to today – you probably knock out presentations without a second thought. That's not just practice. That's your baseline shifting. The problem? Your brain is terrible at remembering old baselines. It's like trying to remember what it felt like not to know how to read. You can intellectually understand that there was a time before you had that skill, but you can't actually access that feeling of not knowing. This creates a dangerous illusion. Think about it like this. When you're climbing a mountain, each step up changes your view of what's below. The higher you go, the smaller everything beneath you looks. But unlike mountain climbing, in personal growth, you can't easily look down and see how far you've come. Your brain keeps updating the map while erasing your tracks. The Math of Invisible Progress This idea is important… but it messes with people’s heads when they first hear it. The better you get at something, the worse you might feel about your abilities. This isn't just imposter syndrome. It's mathematics. Here's why: When you're a beginner, you can see 90% of your field. You know what you know and you have a decent grasp of what you don't know. As you advance, you start seeing 95% of your field. But that extra 5% reveals complexities you never knew existed. By the time you're an expert, you might see 99% of your field – and all of its intricate challenges, nuanced problems, and endless possibilities for improvement. The tragic irony? The more mastery you gain, the more aware you become of what you haven't mastered yet. This creates what I call the Expertise Paradox: Beginners: "This seems manageable" Intermediates: "This is harder than I thought" Experts: "I know enough to know how much I don't know" And that's just the start of the problem. Because while your standards are rising, something else is happening: You're forgetting to measure what matters. The Metrics Trap Last week, I was talking to a creator who has 100,000 subscribers. Know what they were upset about? Their last video "only" got 20,000 views in 24 hours. Three years ago, they would have been popping champagne for 1,000 views. But they weren't measuring growth anymore. They were measuring gap – the distance between where they are and where they think they should be. This is the metrics trap: When you start measuring yourself against your ideals instead of your progress. It's like being angry at yourself for only running a half marathon because you haven't done a full one yet. Meanwhile, you've forgotten that last year you couldn't run a mile. But here's where it gets really interesting... The Biological Roots of Never Enough Your brain has a feature that's becoming a bug. Scientists call it "hedonic adaptation" – your mind's remarkable ability to adjust to new circumstances. It's the same mechanism that helps you adapt to a new city, recover from loss, or get used to success. But in the context of achievement, it's like having a psychological credit card with no limit. Every accomplishment you charge to it gets normalized faster than you can say, "what's next?" Let me show you how deep this goes: A study of Olympic medalists found something fascinating: Bronze medalists were often happier than Silver medalists. Why? Bronze winners were thrilled to be on the podium at all. Silver medalists could only think about not getting gold. Same podium. Different baseline. Different happiness. This isn't just about sports. I see it in business every day: The founder who hit $1M in revenue but can't celebrate because they're fixated on getting to $10M. The investor who doubled their portfolio but feels behind because they missed out on a unicorn. The writer who landed a book deal but is already stressed about the bestseller list. Your Ancient Operating System Here's what's actually happening in your brain. Our prehistoric ancestors needed two things to survive: The ability to adapt quickly to new situations The drive to always want more (food, safety, resources) This was brilliant programming for survival. The problem? We're running paleolithic software on modern hardware. Every time you achieve something, your brain... Quickly normalizes the achievement (adaptation) Immediately starts wanting more (drive) Erases the emotional memory of the struggle (efficiency) It's like your mind is a ruthless editor, constantly deleting your origin story while adding new chapters of pressure. The Success Amnesia Effect But wait, it gets even more interesting. Research shows that as people become more successful, they actually misremember how hard things were at the beginning. This "success amnesia" creates a double blindness: You can't see your progress because your standards keep rising. You can't remember your starting point because success has rewritten your memories. I saw this perfectly illustrated last month when I interviewed a tech CEO for my podcast. She was telling me about her "overnight success" – until I pulled up our interview from five years ago where she detailed her near-bankruptcy, divorce, and three pivots that preceded her breakthrough. She had literally forgotten the struggle. Her new baseline had erased it. The Dangerous Double-Edge So you're probably thinking: "Okay, I miss some progress markers. So what?" It’s a bigger issue than you think. Progress blindness isn't just uncomfortable – it can be downright dangerous. It creates a special kind of successful person who's simultaneously crushing it and crumbling inside. The Successful But Miserable Paradox I was at dinner with three founders last week. Combined net worth? North of $100 million. Know what they talked about for two hours? How they're falling behind. How they should be further along. How everyone else seems to be moving faster. This isn't just imposter syndrome. It's a form of high-functioning anxiety that's becoming an epidemic among high achievers. The Benefits and Battles of Rising Standards Look, having high standards isn't inherently bad. It's probably what got you where you are. Your rising bar has been like a personal trainer for your success – always pushing you to do one more rep, lift a little heavier, go a little further. But here's the problem. when your standards rise faster than your ability to recognize progress, you create something I call "The Achievement Treadmill": You hit a goal. Instead of celebrating, you immediately set a higher one. You discount the achievement because "it should have been bigger." You miss the learning opportunities from your success. You carry forward the stress but not the confidence. The Hidden Costs Nobody Talks About This constant raising of the bar without acknowledgment of progress creates four devastating effects: The Burnout Spiral You push harder because you don't feel you're doing enough. Your body and mind never get the recovery they need. You mistake exhaustion for laziness and push even harder. The Relationship Tax You're harder on your team because "we should be further along." Personal relationships suffer because you're never "there" yet. You stop celebrating others' wins because they seem small. The Learning Block You miss crucial lessons because you're too focused on what's next. You don't document what worked because it "wasn't good enough." You repeat mistakes because you're not pausing to reflect. The Confidence Gap External success grows while internal confidence shrinks. You trust yourself less because you're "always behind." Decision-making suffers because you've lost your internal compass. The Progress Recognition Framework Let me share something that changed everything for one of my good friends (a very obvious victim of this phenomenon) – a simple system that makes invisible progress visible again. I call it "The Progress Mirror," and it's designed to do one thing: Show you what your brain is trying to hide. This is how it works. The Three Time Horizons First, instead of focusing on where you want to be (which your brain already does too much), you're going to systematically look at three time periods: 1. The 12-Month Mirror Pull up your calendar from exactly one year ago. Look at what scared you then. Review the problems that kept you up at night. Check your bank statements and metrics. 2. The 90-Day Snapshot List your daily challenges from last quarter. Review projects you were struggling with. Look at the decisions that stressed you out. Check your common emotional states. 3. The 30-Day Reality Check Document your current capabilities. List your active problems and challenges. Write down your present skills and comfort zones. Note your typical daily activities. The power isn't in any single review – it's in the contrast between them. Creating Your Progress Inventory Once you’ve reviewed your time horizons, the next step is to build what I call a "Progress Inventory." Dedicate 15 minutes every Sunday night to reflect and fill out these three sections: Victories Section What's easier now than it was last month? What do you do automatically that used to require thought? What problems have disappeared? What new capabilities have you gained? Growth Section What are you attempting now that you wouldn't have dared before? Where have your standards risen? What new problems have you earned the right to have? What relationships have deepened or expanded? Learning Section What mistakes are you no longer making? What new insights have you gained? What patterns are you starting to recognize? What tools have you mastered? These two powerful tools – the Progress Mirror and the Progress Inventory – work together to solve the central problem we've been discussing: your brain's tendency to hide your growth behind rising standards. The Progress Mirror forces you to zoom out and see the bigger picture through three critical time horizons. It’s like stepping back from a painting to view the full canvas of your growth. Meanwhile, the weekly Progress Inventory zooms in, capturing the subtle shifts and small victories that compound into major transformations. Used together, these tools create something I call "progress consciousness" – the ability to stay ambitious while remaining aware of how far you’ve come. The Balance Point: Ambitious But Aware These tools aren’t just about recognizing progress. It's about finding that sweet spot between hunger and satisfaction – the razor's edge where you can be simultaneously ambitious and appreciative. The better you get at recognizing progress, the faster you actually progress. Why? Because confidence compounds. When you can see your growth clearly, you: Take bigger risks. Recover faster from setbacks. Make better decisions. Build stronger teams. Move with more conviction. It's like compound interest for your capabilities. Your Move Look, we’ve covered a lot of ground here. But knowledge without action is just entertainment. So here’s what I want you to do right now. Not tomorrow. Not when you “have time.” Right now: Pull up your calendar from exactly one year ago today. Look at what was consuming your thoughts, what was keeping you up at night, what felt impossibly hard. Write down three things that terrified you then but that you handle without blinking today. That gap? That space between past terror and present normalcy? That’s not just progress. That’s evidence of a version of you that kept pushing, kept growing, and kept showing up – even when the progress was invisible. Your future self is already there, looking back at this moment. They can see the mountain peaks that today feel like insurmountable cliffs. They know exactly how far you’re about to climb. Maybe it’s time you saw it too. Because here’s the truth: You’re not behind. You’re not stuck. You’re not falling short. You’re just blind to your own evolution." MY COMMENT Good reading for any investor. We are often IMMUNE to the progress we have made and are making. We focus on the one stock we sold and what we could have made.....not the progress we have made. We focus on the negativity of the markets. We fail to see our achievements because we we are making progress every day. Someone like me......might ignore the +70% YTD gain......and instead.......get focused on a bad week or two in the markets.....or.....the expectation of another 5% or 10% on top of the current YTD gains.. It is ALL your brain playing tricks on you. Read the above and think about your investing progress and how you think about it. A very telling exercise.
I repeat....read and study the article above. There is MUCH truth in what is described and how our BRAIN tricks us. After all there is really nothing going on today....anyway.
HERE are the markets today. S&P 500 rises Friday, but is still on track for a losing week https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 rose Friday, boosted by gains in tech, but the benchmark was still on track for its first weekly decline in four weeks. The broad market index was up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 71 points, or about 0.2%. Broadcom hit $1 trillion in market cap, rallying more than 21% after posting fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings that beat estimates and reporting that artificial intelligence revenue soared 220% for the year. Micron and Nvidia followed Broadcom higher in morning trading. The moves come on the heels of a losing session on Wall Street. The 30-stock Dow dropped 234 points, or about 0.5%, falling for a sixth consecutive day and marking its longest losing streak since April. The Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 0.7% and broke below the 20,000 mark as technology stocks such as Nvidia slumped, while the S&P 500 edged down about 0.5%. For the week, the Dow is heading for a 1.4% decline, while the S&P 500 is on pace for slide of 0.3%. The latter is on pace to end a three-week winning streak. The Nasdaq has outperformed, on track for a 0.8% advance for the period." MY COMMENT Probably a losing week this week. BUT....no matter. That is the norm for investing. The negativity of the short term.....covers up and obscures...the positivity of the longer term.
This week and today are perfect examples of the IDIOCY of the short term markets. It is difficult....but IGNORE it all. I certainly am. After all....next week is FED rate cut week. Something to look forward to. Although like most positive events.....it will be spun into a negative story line all week. Welcome to the modern world.
BASICALLY....it has been a great year for investors. CELEBRATE......CELEBRATE.....CELEBRATE. We are seeing some year end consolidation and profit taking in some of the greatest names.....but....that does not change the EPIC gains that we have had this year. It is natural and normal for people to feel a bit of skittishness after making big money and want to take a little off the table. I think we are also seeing many people......that are market professionals.....starting to tune out early for the holidays this year. We are definately due for a little bit of pause in the markets.....and in fact....we deserve and need a little pause.. We have navigated a HUGE year this year with the election, the FED, and the markets. RELAX and ENJOY the Holiday season......we all deserve it.
I ended with a loss today....of course....it was prtty obvious by about 10:30 where we were headed. I also lost out to the SP500 by 1.03% today. We are now basically in correction range with NVDA....1 day (-2.40%)....5 days (-5.77%).....1 month (-9.49%). What you would call getting punished for great earnings.......or....no good deed goes unpunished. At some point the buyers are going to step up with the nice discount we are now seeing.
The week that was.....thank goodness....I was not a fan. DOW year to date +16.21% DOW five days (-1.81%) SP500 year to date +27.58% SP500 five days (-0.52%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +31.78% NASDAQ 100 five days +0.94% NASDAQ year to date +34.95% NASDAQ five days +0.52% RUSSELL year to date +16.60% RUSSELL five days (-2.97%) A losing week for me....but....still up big year to date....for my entire portfolio +69.25% YTD. Last week my entire portfolio was at.....+71.80%. BUMMER
OK....we are done with another week. We now move on to the FINAL.....11....market days in the year. We will soon be doing the....final countdown....of the last ten market days of 2024. It has been a great year....but....I am ready to start over at "0"....and see what happens.
As stated above, another week in the books. 2024 is in fact drawing to a quick close. I have also noticed the "next year predictions" have been surfacing as usual lately. All of the big firms, pundits, forecasters, economists, etc...all placing their "bets" for 2025. It is always interesting how often they miss the mark and in some cases horribly bad. Of course, these targets are revised regularly to save face. It wasn't that long ago they were predicting a recession and forward dismal returns. 2022 paved the way....No way 2023 would be successful. Yet, the SP 500 returned about +27%. Once again we could not possibly continue this for 2024 with all that was sure to happen. Well, it is just shy of +30%. Still a little bit left to go so we will see. The above is a short time span for investing, but I offer it only to say....It can be hard to know. An investor could have been in a broad passive index fund and gained around 57% doing absolutely nothing. No worries, no decisions, no attention to the media and pundits....just simply locking in and going about your life. We humans (most of us) simply have an inability to be satisfied it seems. If we make "x" % we always want 20% more. We will often search for anything that will confirm our own bias. We want to know all about tomorrow and the next month and what and where we will be by the end of 2025. We get consumed with all of that information to the point we can no longer enjoy the present. We worry and compare ourselves to others while ignoring the fact that our financial lives and goals are very different. I have no idea what 2025 has in store for us. Yes, it can be fun to guess, but don't allow your guess or anyone else's to be the driver of you plan. The end of the year is always a good time to sort of evaluate your long term plan. A good self check and evaluation. This does not include what everyone else is doing or saying.
YES.....YES....Smokie. Our brains make us never satisfied. It was the same when I was in business.....I would just do the same simple thing over and over for long term business success. I would see others in business.....always chasing after the next big thing. Constantly changing everything. It is the same with investing.....if what you are doing is working and achieving your REALISTIC goals.....just keep doing the same thing year after year. There is no need to make it complex....it is really very simple. There is no need to.....covet......what anyone else is making or achieving. It is NOT a zero sum game....everyone can succeed......even if doing investing your own way. Everyone is different and you have to do what works for you. BUT.....one thing is a CONSTANT.......the POWER of LONG TERM INVESTING. So....yes....as always...I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
