The Long Term Investor

THIS GUY.......is my personal HERO:

Crypto CEO shows workers who disagree with ‘apolitical’ mission the door
Five percent of workers have opted to take an exit package made available

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/crypto-ceo-apolitical-mission

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"The CEO of San Francisco-based digital currency exchange Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, put his foot down this week, offering workers who do not agree with his view on how the company should engage with the political sphere a way out.

In a blog post on Thursday, Armstrong shared a memo he sent to employees that said 5% of the company’s workforce decided to take an “exit package,” which was offered to those who did not agree with the company’s apolitical mission.

Five percent is about 60 workers, and Armstrong said he was pleased that the numbers did not disproportionately reflect an exodus from underrepresented groups.

“There are a handful of other conversations still ongoing, so the final number will likely be a bit higher,’ Armstrong wrote.

Armstrong previously announced the company would not engage in broad political activism while simultaneously acknowledging that cryptocurrencies are inherently political to a certain extent.

“Growing revenue and profit is the only way we will be able to grow our team to build all the things that are needed to accomplish the mission,” Armstrong said. “And we need an environment that is welcoming to everyone to attract and retain team members.”

Armstrong said engaging in social activism – as many companies do in Silicon Valley – has the potential to destroy value at “most companies” by both acting as a distraction and creating internal division.

The company’s mission, he said, is to create “an open financial system for the world.”"

MY COMMENT

I am waiting for the first shareholder lawsuits against some company for destruction of the company business by mixing politics with business. FANTASY.......I know. A political litmus test is POISON to business and industry. Unfortunately that is where we are quickly headed.

It is hard enough to make money and motivate employees without bringing politics and personal opinion front and center in the workplace. Bringing this stuff into the workplace is.......yes......POISON.

 

OK.......a very good week for the general markets.........and........for the type of stocks that I hold. When I was looking at my account today I realized that I had not looked at the account total for a while. I was SURPRISED to see it pushing a new high.
AND..........the good news.........the markets have a good amount of room to run up before pushing through all time highs:

Economic Outlook: We Don't Think the Market's Too Optimistic
We forecast a strong long-run U.S. recovery.

https://www.morningstar.com/article...look-we-dont-think-the-markets-too-optimistic

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The Morningstar US market index has staged a complete recovery from COVID-19 and now is up 3% year to date even as the pandemic remains at large. While many investors are wondering if the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance, we think the rebound has been broadly warranted, as we forecast a strong long-run recovery in the U.S. economy. We expect U.S. GDP to drop 5.1% in 2020 but surge back in 2021 and experience further catch-up growth in following years. By 2024, we think U.S. GDP will recover to just 1% below our prepandemic expectation.


U.S. GDP will fall sharply in 2020, but we expect rapid catch-up. - source: Morningstar

While U.S. equities have recovered in aggregate, we've seen very large disparities in share price performance across sectors and companies. Therefore, equity markets are implying a major reshaping of the U.S. economy compared with how it looked before the pandemic. Likewise, many have argued that the coronavirus will dramatically accelerate ongoing shifts in the economy (such as the one toward e-commerce from brick-and-mortar retail), or that it will create new trends entirely.

We've looked at several historical episodes in order to best understand the world after COVID-19. Our goal is to understand, in general, what happens when the economy is perturbed by an extreme but temporary external shock. Pandemics are one type of this class of events, but so are wars, political upheaval, and related disruptions. Our analysis shows that U.K. rationing in World War II didn't depress long-run consumption of rationed goods via a change in habits. Instead, demand for rationed goods generally mounted a full recovery. While U.S. female labor for participation surged during WWII, this had little impact on the long-run trend. At the very least, these episodes suggest we should think carefully before proclaiming that any aspect of pandemic life will become a "new normal."


WWII rationing had little long-term impact on U.K. food demand. - source: Morningstar


WWII jump in female labor participation didn't have major long-run effect. - source: Morningstar

About 45% of U.S. workers were working from home at the 2020 pandemic peak. We project that 13% of U.S. workers will be working from home full-time by 2025. This is a solid uptick from prepandemic levels, but it implies that most workers are going to return to the office. Working from home isn't for everyone. It requires the right occupation, permission from the employer, and ultimately choice of the worker. Only 13% of the U.S. workforce will clear all three of these hurdles. The market is overrating work-from-home adoption, contributing to our view that energy and real estate stocks are undervalued.

"

MY COMMENT

So.......back to today and my accounts. The SP500 was +.88 today I was able to beat it by .57. Looking at my account performance recently......I am BEATING the SP500 by about 4% over the past three months........ looking at the entire account......and........all stock and mutual funds in the account. I thought I was beating the SP500 pretty well recently over the past 4 or 5 or 6 months........but........had not looked till today at the actual performance figures. ALTHOUGH........this is NOT hard to do over the short term..........the difficulty comes in beating the SP500 over the long term.

I am glad to see that Morningstar anticipates good things going forward over the next 1-3 years. There is GREAT POTENTIAL for the next 1-3 years to be a rare GOLDEN ERA for investors. Once we get past this little election hurdle..........perhaps 3-6 months........we may have a rare BULL MARKET ahead of us for a significant time forward.

 

YES.......a great week in the markets this week. The SP500 gained +3.84%. That is an amazing gain for one week. The DOW followed suit with a gain for the week of +3.27%. ALSO......an amazing percent gain for only one week.

BOTH the DOW and SP500 are now positive year to date..........with........the Dow at +.17% and the SP500 at +7.63%

I dont think the DOW will hit plus ten percent this year......but........the SP500 should have a very legitimate shot at a positive total return of 10-15% this year.

Seems like the Robinhood guys went kind of dead after AAPL and TSLA split and we hit that 4 week rough spot. It feels like they are starting to become more active again the last week or two. I did read......as I expected.........that the vast majority of their trades are to the long side versus the short side.

 

Yes, Zukodany......that might work. Or you might lose a bunch of money and end up having to get reinvested in the middle of a booming market. BUT.....any long term investor knows there is no way to anticipate events and markets short term. The bottom line is there is NO generic answer. It is ALL personal.

One thing is sure........if someone is WAY over-invested for their risk tolerance........or........their ability to lose money over the short term......it might be a good time adjust your portfolio. I imagine that most people are pretty reasonably invested right now for their own personality and needs, after going through the past six months. BUT.......there might be some people that have gotten a little carried away with risk.

 

I hate to say it but.......DUHHHHHHH. There are BIG ISSUES with using a brokerage app that does not have any phone or other support. There is ABSOLUTELY no reason for anyone to put up with this.....ALL the big brokers can provide all the same trading at ZERO fees........AND........with better account security and customer support of may types and levels.

Robinhood Users Say Accounts Were Looted, No One to Call

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-users-had-accounts-looted-172938956.html

"It took Soraya Bagheri a day to learn that 450 shares of Moderna Inc. had been liquidated in her Robinhood account and that $10,000 in withdrawals were pending. But after alerting the online brokerage to what she believed was a theft in progress, she received a frustrating email.

The firm wrote it would investigate and respond within “a few weeks.” Now her money is gone.

Bagheri is among five Robinhood customers who recounted similar experiences to Bloomberg News, saying they’ve been left in limbo in recent weeks after someone sold their investments and withdrew funds. Because the wildly popular app has no emergency phone number, some said they tried in vain to intervene, only to watch helplessly as their money vanished."

etc, etc, etc, article continues.

MY COMMENT

If I was a Robinhood guy......I would say it is time for me to grow up and open a REAL brokerage account at Schwab, or any of the other FREE TRADE brokerages that ALSO offer full services for customers. I have nothing against Robinhood......but......there are many situations where is is nice to have access to full customer service at NO extra cost or fees.

 

This week......here comes earnings. It begins. This week we will have just about ALL the banks reporting. The BIG ones Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank America and many many more. ALSO......JNJ and HON and Schwab.

I have seen NOTHING to make me think that earnings will be bad. In fact EVERYTHING I am seeing is predicting GREAT EARNINGS. I suspect that earnings will be FAR BETTER than most people were predicting 3-6 months ago for the third quarter.

ANOTHER.......big step forward in this HUGE V shaped recovery.

We have three weeks to add gains before the.........(GASP)........election. A lot can happen over that time in terms of news. I have now.......moved on........from thinking about the election. It FINALLY wore me out.........so........I have moved on. NOTHING I can do in any event. I will vote this week and that is all I can do......my part will be done. Whatever happens......happens. I will just live with it and deal with it at that time. I DO NOT anticipate any trades or changes in my portfolio......REGARDLESS........of what happens. For me.........in terms of investing.......... it will just be a time period to sit through and move on. POTENTIALLY a HUGE story.........and.......HUGE impact for the country and the future REALITY for our children.......but.......that is a different story.

 

You dont have to LIKE how we end up in a few weeks.........but:

Keep Your Emotions In Check. Market-Boosting Certainty Is Coming


https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...rket-boosting_certainty_is_coming_580394.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Straight ahead of us, just weeks, this young bull market gets a boost from almost entirely unexpected quarters: America’s election. Sound crazy? Before having me committed, let me explain.

This year’s election spews angst aplenty. Even last year, alignments were steeling themselves for a chaotic campaign. Subsequent 2020 developments only magnified this. I won’t belabor you with them as they’ve been painfully shoved in your face all year long.

Acknowledging that, my advice: Go against the grain. Ignore angst. Be calm. When the dust settles—possibly election night or sometime not too long thereafter—we get a winner and increased clarity. Uncertainty will bullishly fall. Markets love falling uncertainty, always. You want to own stocks before then.

See it this way: Trump’s 2016 win shocked many, if not most, investors. We hadn’t seen the full Trump effect yet. Most people couldn’t fathom his winning when Hillary Clinton had a seven point mid-October polling lead (perRealClearPolitics’ poll averages). Most failed to see any path to Trump’s victory. Betting markets had the odds of Ms. Clinton winning uniformly over 85% on election eve. The idea that traditional Democrat states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were in play was radical. People presumed those states would vote as they had in the preceding five presidential elections—blue. They missed how red these states’ legislatures had become as I wrote about that summer. If they voted accordingly in the national races, Trump had a clear edge. That happened. Will it again? I don’t know. Maybe. Same basic structure!

As I write, on October 11th, Biden has a slightly largerReal Clear Politicsaverage (9.8 percent) polling lead. Will many be shocked if he wins? Certainly not. Still, there isn’t evidence pollsters have gotten better at identifying likely Trump voters now than in 2016. First, in battleground states, Trump is actually ahead of where he was against Ms. Clinton this same time pre-2016 election by a half a point. Second, recall that it is less how many votes nationally than where the votes are. Third, it is possible, as widely bandied, there is some sort of secret underground Trump voter cohort who won’t admit Trump support to pollsters.

Finally, in today’s hugely polarized world, do you think oodles of voters have changed allegiances? Changing allegiances means admitting you were wrong before--and in many things, and particularly political and ideological realms, that seems impossible for most to do! We keep envisioning new events as if they will sway some big pool of up-for-grabs voters. That universe is probably just a few percent. You and all your family and friends probably decided whom you support long ago. The winner is probably he whose party best gets its base to actually vote. On that I don’t have a clue.

So where is the shock factor? Many say, “a contested election” or one where we don’t know the winner, a la 2000. But in 2000, the unclear result tied to Florida’s infamous hanging chadswas a surprise.This time? Media trumpeted this for months. Many Wall Street firms forecast a “Red Mirage” of Trump leading election night but losing as mail-in ballots are tallied. Many seemingly fear Trump rejecting results if he loses--and then refuses to leave office—a fantasy. Republican leaders already rejected this. America isn’t Belarus. But the chatter helps stocks pre-price any unclear result election night.

Contested or no, we get a winner--sooner if Biden seemingly leads in electoral votes on election night, maybe a little later if Trump does. Maybe we get recounts and legal challenges with some short-term market volatility. Regardless, we will have a winner in mid-December at the latest. As clarity emerges, the uncertainty and angst stoking today’s headlines decrease. Falling uncertainty; happy stocks.

Come January 20, either Biden or Trump is sworn in—a newly elected Democrat or a re-elected Republican. Maybe it is he whom you favor…or hate. Trump fans are sure a Biden win is a socialistic disaster. Biden fans are adamant Trump’s re-election is disastrous for democracy—and markets. For investing, you must block out these feelings.

There are 94 years of precise and accurate US market data. Those 94 years show a repeat pattern of stocks reacting to political biases—counterintuitively. Individual investors, leaning roughly two-thirds to the ideological right and one third to the left, routinely fear Democrats are anti-business and “bad for stocks.” Republicans, they presume, are good. These biases get pre-priced--baked into stock prices in advance. In election years when we re-elect a Republican president the S&P 500 hopefully averages 10.6%. And, when we newly elect a Democrat? Fearfully, negative 2.8%.

But in the inaugural year, that flips as presidents can’t ever do and never have done nearly as much as they had promised. America’s system of shared power between executive, legislative and judicial branches enforces moderation. So do looming midterm elections—in which the presidents’ party almost always loses clout.

Because of that moderation, re-elected Republicans’ inaugural years disappoint investors. Stocks then average a tepid 2.7%. But they're relieved when a newly elected Democrat has to moderate because they don’t do as much as previously feared. Their inaugural years average a whopping 21.8%! The two periods together average happy either way.

Keep your emotions in check as this election draws near. The certainty coming your way soon should relieve markets."

MY COMMENT

YES......keep emotion about the election totally in check when it comes to investing. There is NOTHING you can do anyway.

STRONG open today........at least for the first 3 minutes. TOO BAD the market day is longer than 3 minutes.

 

Was looking at my account today........ADMIRING the early gains. I will be GNASHING MY TEETH at the end of the day if the early momentum collapses. I noticed some very nice short term gains......now that we are booming:

NVDA - I purchased this company on August 21, 2020. I NOW have a very nice 15% gain in 7 weeks.

SNOW - I purchased this company on September 22, 2020. I NOW have a very nice 8.6% gain in 3 weeks.

As a long term investor.......much of my investing time is siting around and doing NOTHING. I like to treat myself when we hit good market gains by ENJOYING the short term results.......mentally. Of course........when we are down or in a correction......I ignore the results. PURE human behavior in action.

The companies above........NVDA, I continue to see as a long term hold. This company is SET UP to be a very DOMINANT player in their markets for a long time.

SNOW........well......this company is a TOTALLY speculative long term project. I will DEFINITELY limit my holding to the original 100 shares. Like ALL new IPO stocks there is absolutely NO guarantee of anything.

 

I LOVE this sort of market day. Starts out strong........than........powers on through the day. Election......what election? Supreme court........who cares. SUDDENLY.......it seems like it is all about earnings.......and.......they are expected to be very strong. This could be a KILLER WEEK.......the bank earnings probably bottomed out two to four months ago so they are expected to be very nice this week.

LOTS of green today........and.......a STRONG beat of the SP500 by .96%.

With a little LUCK we all might be looking at new account highs by the end of the week.

 

YES......PITIFUL and PATHETIC.......but......that is what our politicians, government and media have become.

 

Starting out the day today with a........small but.......acceptable gain in the accounts +.32% versus the SP500 currently being at (-.30%).

(typed this morning just after the open, but not posted till now)

 

WELL.......ahem........any sort of investing talk is welcome here. God knows........much of what I post here is short term stuff.......since......I would not have much to post otherwise, being a long term investor.

If "I was you" Zukodany........I would sell the rotten eggs immediately. NO waiting for a bump up, no screwing around.......I would sell ALL TODAY immediately. I HATE unproductive money........and.........I would see it as a lateral move of stock market money into a more productive investment.

As to the short term stuff........"IF I was you" and that was truly short term investments and I made my goal I would sell them all. No need to get greedy. Just as I did with my APPLE trade. I would than take the funds from the rotten eggs and the short term profit and put that money to work in long term stock or fund investments.

You know me......all in all at once.......so.....I would not even wait to see if there was a market drop around the election. I would reinvest the funds TODAY. I imagine most people.......not like me.......would keep the funds in cash and hope for an opportunity post election.