As to the markets today.....I will quote Forrest Gump......"And that's all I have to say about that". I am not going to waste any more time thinking about....talking about....or reading about.....the markets today. I will note for the historical record....that right now I have eight stocks down....and....one up (NVDA).
I will say that the stock that I think it a great deal right now is......drum roll please....COST. They have been putting up GREAT earnings that have been ignored. They have GREAT management. They have been IRRATIONALLY PUNISHED over the past month being down by (-5.28%). In my view there is absolutely no rational reason for this. I suspect that much of the drop over the past month is the company being punished for weakness in other retail stocks and companies. I see this as DUMB market behavior....since this company is very different than other retail companies. AND....at some point when management wakes up and does the right thing for shareholders.....there will be a stock split. I am predicting 5 for 1......or better. Once it is announced we will see a big run up in the stock which is fully justified by recent earnings STRONG BEATS.......which were ignored. AND....for the long term....this is a great stock to hold. It is dull and boring....but...routinely keeps up with or beats the big tech stocks over the long term. My second largest holding....due to massive appreciation over the long term.
LOL....I just saw a graphic of the DOW. The ONLY green stock in the entire DOW......NVDA. NVDA news today: Nvidia closes $700 million Run:ai acquisition after regulatory hurdles https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...f-8jlcqOmp62GxLKMaFT2rEshtmpjFuQTBOCiLZsmL3Lp
As a COST shareholder I do take issue with this and voted accordingly https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...r-retailers-drop-controversial-diversity-push
I am anticipating that inflation will be gutted in 2025. The government cuts in regulation, a few tax cuts, and especially the boom that we are going to see start in the Oil and Energy business here in the USA will greatly help to cut inflation. This will pick up steam in 2025 and peak in 2026. AND....as a result I would say that the odds of a surprise in interest rate cuts...will strongly trend toward...... good potential.....for more cuts than are anticipated right now. YES.....more positive news for stock and fund investors.....which should be particularly noticeable......in the second half of 2025 and the entire year of 2026.
There can only be one......day left in the year. AND....I ended today with a medium loss. I had a single stock in the green.....NVDA. At least it totally dominates my portfolio....so a good one to be UP on a day like this. I did manage to BEAT the SP500 by 0.47% today. On a thin....profit taking day like this....I will take it and be satisfied.
Well we did it....we are now one day from the end of 2024. The big gains of the year are basically intact. It is nice to end on a record: Assets in U.S. exchange-traded funds topped $10 trillion. Here are trends for investors to watch, experts say https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/30/as-...-for-first-time-here-are-trends-to-watch.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Assets in U.S. exchange-traded funds have topped $10 trillion for the first time in November, according to the latest data from Cerulli Associates. As 2024 comes to a close, here are some ETF trends that dominated the year, based on the latest data. Assets in U.S. exchange-traded funds in November topped $10 trillion for the first time, according to the latest data from Cerulli Associates. ETFs — funds that invest in stocks, bonds or other assets and trade on national stock exchanges — reached $156 billion in flows for November, surpassing previous monthly flow records. The activity is “on par with elevated activity typically seen toward the end of the year,” Cerulli reported. Research from Morningstar pointed to a “Trump bump” that helped U.S. funds — including both ETFs and mutual funds — take in $115 billion in November, the highest total since April 2021. As 2024 comes to a close, these are a few of the ETF trends that dominated the year, based on the latest data. S&P 500 among 2024 fund winners Year to date, the S&P 500 index is up almost 24%, as of Monday. The S&P 500 rally, buoyed by the Magnificent Seven stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla — helped account for about half of the index’s gains for the year, according to data and analytics company VettaFi. Four of the top 10 ETFs for 2024 by flows track the S&P 500 index, according to Cerulli. The Vanguard 500 Index Fund ranks No. 1 for 2024 year-to-date inflows, according to Cerulli, followed by iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust, Invesco QQQ Trust, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF and Vanguard Growth Index Fund. Malcolm Ethridge, a certified financial planner and founder and managing partner at Capital Area Planning Group, said he often uses S&P 500 ETFs in client portfolios because they allow for access to company names that would be in any large-cap growth strategy for significantly reduced costs. While an actively managed fund may charge 50 or 75 basis points, a passive S&P 500 ETF may only charge 10 basis points, he said. The S&P 500 index, which has had a record run, may be poised to continue to do well as the index rebalances to reflect current market leaders. “I think this is a case where SPY [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ] probably outperforms the majority of fund managers in 2025,” Ethridge said. S&P 500 could get close to 7,000 in the first half of next year, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Alternative ETFs see record growth Meanwhile, alternative ETFs in November crossed $400 billion in net assets for the first time, according to Cerulli. Moreover, the year-over-year asset growth rate for alternative ETFs — at 93% — was highest among all asset classes. Most of the total alternative ETF market share — 80%, or around $325 billion — comprises digital assets, trading-leveraged equity and derivative income ETFs, according to Cerulli. Financial advisors reported having just a 3.6% allocation to alternatives in 2024, though that is expected to increase, according to Cerulli. Within existing alternatives allocations, 14.4% is done through the use of ETFs, the firm found. Crypto ETFs are ‘here to stay’ In January, bitcoin ETFs began trading on U.S. exchanges. Now, spot bitcoin ETFs hold more digital currency than bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, VettaFi noted. Despite a “more lackluster” rollout for spot ethereum ETFs this year, crypto ETFs are “here to stay,” according to VettaFi. The top five new ETFs by assets in 2024 are all bitcoin ETFs, according to Cerulli, based on data through November. They include iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF at No. 1, followed by Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF, ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF" MY COMMENT I guess some of the above is relevant to the question asked by Blake on the prior page. (See below).
Personally I have ZERO idea where Bitcoin is headed. It is a young guys game. I do happen to own about 1/70 of one Bitcoin. I wish I still had my single Bitcoin.....which I sold for about $12,000 way back when....a big profit. I cant remember what I wanted the money for....probably art.
Ok this is it....the final market day of 2024. We will all soon be locking in the gains of 2024 and closing the books on the year. We will all start at ZERO next time the markets are open after today. Day by day, month by month, year by year......eventually it becomes the LONG TERM. The short term seems so relevant when we are caught up in it. All the drama, turmoil, excitement, fear, celebration, panic, etc, etc, etc. In the end none of it means anything. It is not even a visible dot on a long term chart. In the end all that matters is long term....compounding, fundamentals, and probability. It helps to have a way to measure your investing results. For me that is the SP500. This year I will be kicking it's ass. Over the long term I am also......contrary to what is normal....significantly beating the average over my lifetime. Every year I start out with the same investing goals: 1. Achieve a lifetime average total return of 10%. 2. Beat the SP500 each year. Number one is a critical goal. I need to achieve this goal. It is required. if I am not hitting this goal than I am under-performing the SP500 over the long term. In that case I should simply be investing in the SP500. Number two is "aspirational". A nice goal to hit in any one year but not necessary or realistic. As a long term investor I....do nothing....to try to hit these goals in a typical year. I sit and hold my portfolio of stocks and funds and let time do the rest. I try to avoid all active trading, market timing, and chasing returns.
Over the next week or two there will be thousands of articles going back and reviewing year 2024. I will ignore them all. I just lived and invested the year...I dont need to review it. There will also be thousands of articles about what to expect and what to do in 2025. I will also ignore them all. No writer has any clue what is going to happen over the next week or two...much less an entire year.
HERE are the markets today. Stocks rise on final day of 2024, S&P 500 heads for second year in a row with 20% gain https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were slightly higher Tuesday, as investors look to wrap up another booming year that hoisted the S&P 500 to its second consecutive annual gain exceeding 20%, spurred by enthusiasm for rate cuts, economic strength and artificial intelligence. The broad market index traded 0.3% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 141 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 has surged 24% in 2024, building on a gain of 24.2% from last year. The two-year gain of around 54% is the best since the nearly 66% rally in 1997 and 1998. Meanwhile, the Dow has added 13% in 2024, while the Nasdaq has outperformed with a 30% advance. The enthusiasm surrounding AI and its potential productivity boost powered significant gains for the major averages throughout the year, pushing “Magnificent Seven” stocks such AI chip darling Nvidia and iPhone giant Apple to new highs. The megacap technology gains helped lift the major averages to record levels. Developments in Washington, D.C., helped fuel the rally in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point since September, bolstering confidence that the U.S. economy can sustain its recent growth. Stocks also rallied sharply following President-elect Donald Trump’s win in November, as traders cheered the prospect of lower taxes and a looser regulatory approach under a Republican administration. Bank stocks in particular were one group that surged after the election, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs now up about 42% and 49%, respectively, year to date. Shares of Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a close ally of Trump, are now up 67% year to date. Meanwhile, bitcoin has performed even better than the stock market, up 124% for the year and topping $100,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq and S&P have surged 7.5% and 2.8%, respectively, this quarter and are both on pace for a fifth consecutive positive quarter for the first time since 2021. The Dow is up a mere 0.9% over the same period for its fourth positive quarter in five. Despite the strong year-to-date performance, Wall Street is entering the final day of the year on sour note. December has been a weak stretch for equities as investors take profits in some of 2024′s biggest winners and fears mount over rising rates into year-end. The Dow is down 4.8%. The S&P is down 1.7%, while the Nasdaq is up 1.7%. “It sort of makes sense, if you think about it,” Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “You go into the end of the year with market up a lot, you’re coming in with a new administration — so the uncertainty is going to be there. You can’t fault investors for ringing the register a little bit here.” The loss in momentum has also dashed investor hopes for a Santa Claus rally, which occurs when the market rises during each of the five final trading days of a calendar year and the first two trading days of January. Instead, the S&P 500 has dropped at least 1% during each of the past two trading days. The Dow finished Monday’s choppy trading session with a loss exceeding 418 points, or 0.97%. The S&P plunged 1.07%, while the Nasdaq shed 1.19%. The market is closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day. Palantir could go ‘much higher from here,’ Dan Ives says Investors shouldn’t be worried about Palantir Technologies’ current valuation levels, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives. As it stands, the stock has a forward price-to-sales ratio of around 50, per data from FactSet. It has also soared around 346% year to date. But Ives thinks the stock could have even more room to run. “It’s not about in the next year in terms of what this thing is trading at,” the analyst told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday. “I view it as: Can Palantir be the next Oracle, the next Salesforce? If that’s true – and I believe that’s true – then this is a name that goes much higher from here.” “That’s why you’ve got to focus on [artificial intelligence platform] as they prove out these sort of enterprise use cases and can this be something that expands to ultimately 30% [or] 40% of its overall revenue. I think that’s the key,” he continued. “This is a stock that has potential to be three digits and higher.” Advancing stocks point to solid market breadth Tuesday Market breadth appeared solid in early trading Tuesday, a welcome change for investors after narrow leadership over the past few weeks. Shortly before 10 am, advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange outpaced declining stocks by a ratio of more than three-to-one, according to FactSet. On the Nasdaq, the advantage was nearly two-to-one. Meanwhile, just five of the 30 stocks in the Dow were negative. S&P 500 has had 57 record closes this year Wall Street might not close 2024 exactly at record highs, but there have been plenty of milestones throughout the year. Through Monday’s close, there have been 57 record closes for the S&P in 2024, 47 for the Dow and 38 for the Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq, which has the most exposure to the AI trade of the three averages, is now up 86% over the past two years. That’s its best two-year stretch since 2019 and 2020." MY COMMENT HAPPY NEW YEAR....from the markets. OMG....I just heard the Varney business show playing......."Fhe Final Countdown".
I have only two stocks in the green right now....CMG and HD. The rest are all red. It is a mild and basically flat day today. No final day of the year fireworks. I will post my year end results as soon as possible after the close today. I will include the individual results for my two funds.....SP500 Index fund and fidelity Contra fund......and for my entire portfolio. At some point I will also get around to putting up the data for each stock that I own.
I guess it will be a regular closing time for the markets today. I thought I saw somewhere that the markets would close early for New Years Eve.....but I guess not. We will just have to SLOG our way through the deep mud all the way till the normal close. It is a RED and disappointing end to the year today. BUT....you cant win them all. You only have to win more than you lose. Year 2024 is going to go out with a WHIMPER. WHATEVER.
The.....KRAMPUS CRASH....continues in the year end markets. "An Ancient Tradition Associated with the Alpine region, the Krampus tradition ranges from southern Germany into parts of Austria, northern Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Krampus plays bad cop to Saint Nicolas’ good cop, and bad children are threatened with whipping with birch sticks from Krampus, or even being thrown into his basket and carried away, whereas good children are rewarded by Saint Nicholas with toys and candy." https://www.travelchannel.com/inter...the-scariest-christmas-tradition-in-the-world AND: "Krampus will carry a bundle of birch branches with which he occasionally swats children.[12] The birch branches are replaced with a whip in some representations. On Christmas Eve, Krampus travels with a sack or a basket strapped to his back; this is to cart off evil children for drowning, eating, or transport to Hell. Some of the older versions make mention of naughty children being put in the bag and taken away." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krampus MY COMMENT NO....it is not a "crash".....but I like the sound of that word paired with "Krampus". I think I have created a new name for a year end dip in the markets......the dreaded....."KRAMPUS CRASH". Unwary investors are whipped with Birch branches and those that have been especially bad.....day traders, market timers, gamblers, speculators, etc, etc.......are carted off by Krampus to his lair where they are made to real all......ELEVEN HUNDRED AND THIRTY ONE....pages of this thread.
TODAY....is my last loss of 2024. I was in the red today with only a single stock UP.....CMG. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.99% today. BAH HUMBUG.
BUT......regardless of the above.....I will CELEBRATE 2024. My gain for my ENTIRE PORTFOLIO as of the close today....the end of the 2024 market year is......+65.31%. An amazing accomplishment for the markets in 2024. That figure is now locked into the historical record that is this thread. As of the close today I am now at........0.00%.....for the current market year.....2025.
Here is how I am starting out for.......2025: The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir (Junior position) Chipotle Mexican Grill (Junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE.....MAY ALL YOUR DREAMS COME TRUE IN THE NEW YEAR. We are all in this together.....on this thread. We are FAMILY. Posters and lurkers. For next year I invite EVERYONE that reads this thread to post something on here. Tell us about yourself and your investing.
The big averages for 2024 DOW +12.80% SP500 +24.01% NASDAQ 100 +26.99% NASDAQ +30.78% RUSSELL +10.82% MY YEAR END DATA: Fidelity Contra fund +35.97% (corrected with data from Fidelity) SP500 Index fund +24.01% Entire Portfolio +65.31%
