The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like LORI is picking up a very nice one day GAIN on her shares of PLTR that she purchased last night.

    Nice for you....LORI. Now you have to STEEL yourself for the long term.
     
  2. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    I'm in $PFE
    I feel they are inline financial 2025

    Put in bottom with this news few weeks ago

    +4.12%
    Pfizer's (PFE) stock moved higher in Tuesday's pre-market trading after the pharmaceutical giant issued an upbeat full-year outlook for 2025. The company projected annual sales between $61 billion and $64 billion, with earnings per share estimates at $2.80 to $3 — both metrics coming in line with Wall Street projections.

    With financials fair value is 50ish dollars so way undervalued at 20s

    I also think bird flu mandatory shots coming 2025.

    Thoughts?
     
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  3. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    PLTR fair value like 20 to 70 bucks
     
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  4. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    Toyota TM fair value way down also
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are POWERING toward the close in a few hours. With the current momentum It is looking good....but I never underestimate the potential for a.....late day fade.

    It appears that we are now seeing a more normal market the last couple of days....no doubt because....we are past the year end profit taking and portfolio adjusting.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A GREAT day for me and a good day for the markets today. I had a nice big gain. I also beat the SP500 by 1.40%.

    That is how you start the new year......BOOM.
     
    #22666 WXYZ, Jan 3, 2025 at 4:07 PM
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2025 at 4:12 PM
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Results YTD for 2025.....all figures are for January 1 to the close on January 3.

    DOW year to date +0.17%

    SP500 year to date +0.66%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +0.89%

    NASDAQ year to date +1.11%

    RUSSELL year to date +1.17%

    NOTE: this week there is only two days in the above. Next week I will be back to posting YTD and FIVE DAYS for each of the above.

    NOW....my results for the first three days of 2025.....two market days.....+2.77% (corrected) for my entire account. I have nothing to compare this to since there is NO prior week in 2025.

    NICE.....it may not hold long....but it is nice to start the new year in the GREEN.......BAM.
     
    #22667 WXYZ, Jan 3, 2025 at 4:12 PM
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2025 at 12:06 AM
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In the above I dont care how the markets did for the week. I have already accounted for my 2024 results and those are in the past. My ONLY focus is 2025.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    The American Worker Is Becoming More Productive
    U.S. workers are getting more done. That’s great for the economy—though not always great for workers.

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/worker-productivity-america-growing-36f4c90c?st=CJ8Rjz

    MY COMMENT

    We are just in the early days of AI...but the impact is sweeping the business world.

    For example....my kid is a Senior Director at an Insurance company. He is responsible for four terms that produce the underwriting results and proposals that lead to 80% of the company business......over $2.5BILLION dollars.

    His department finished putting AI into place about 3 months ago. It was a major project that took about 4-6 months. AI is now crunching all the numbers and data for the Underwriting and proposals/quotes and reviewing all the contract and proposal language. It did not replace any employees.....yet. But it is streamlining their jobs by not having to waste time dealing with all the....busy work....of number crunching and contract boilerplate.
     
    #22669 WXYZ, Jan 3, 2025 at 4:21 PM
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2025 at 5:25 PM
  10. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I agree after a killer year the last week was just people taking a couple bucks off the table and moving money around. So far we are off to a good start for the new year. Now we have a new year and I'm certain most people don't want that money sitting on the side lines!
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was doing a little year end review of my nine stocks. Here is the one year and five year TOTAL RETURNS on each stock.. PLTR is one year only since they have not been around for five years.

    PLTR........+381.54%.......no five year.

    NVDA.......+200.17%.......+2164.37%.

    AMZN.......+49.49%..........+133.88%.

    GOOGL....+38.80%...........+168.23%.

    MSFT.........+14.16%..........+159.44%.

    COST.........+40.91%...........+236.42%.

    HD..............+12.77%...........+73.57%.

    AAPL..........+31.06%...........+214.31%.

    CMG...........+32.92%..........+247.97%.

    For comparison the SP500:

    SP500..........+26.31%..........+83.70%.

    What is interesting is COST. I was talking about it in a post directed to LORI earlier. Look at those returns.....over one year it beats....GOOGL, MSFT, ......over five years it beats....AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL. As I said earlier this is a GREAT company and a GREAT stock. Many people dont realize the returns that this stock achieves....usually year in and year out. It has been a long term holding for me....and has grown to be my second largest holding.....NVDA is my first. COST over five years is doing TECH COMPANY type returns without much of the risk.

    ALL in all....a very STERLING portfolio over the past five years. Of course I have NOT held PLTR, CMG, or NVDA for the entire five years.

    (This data came from my Schwab Acct)
     
    #22671 WXYZ, Jan 3, 2025 at 5:14 PM
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2025 at 5:27 PM
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree TireSmoke. And.....what is really nice is the between.....$7TRILLION and $18TRILLION sitting on the sidelines. If or when some of that money decides to move into the markets it could create a HUGE RALLY. BUT...will it happen?

    https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/how-much-cash-is-really-on-the-sidelines/

    AND....."while cash has grown, households have shifted even more aggressively into equities, underscoring their appetite for risk. As a result, cash allocations are below long-term average levels while stock allocations are at all-time highs...."

    https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/how-much-cash-is-really-on-the-sidelines/
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. It has been a strange and long Christmas and year end season in the markets. Nice to move on into the new year. THE ADVENTURE BEGINS.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    There are certain types of stock that I avoid......banks, financial/insurance companies, health companies, drug companies, auto companies, oil companies.

    My reasoning is simple......I have owned them all at various times over the past 55+ years and they have never produced for me. They are all....boom and bust....businesses. They are all extremely cyclical. Up and down, up and down.

    I like stocks that have long term staying power and the ability to produce year in and year out. Much of my lifetime of investing has been focused on the HUGE CONSUMER COMPANIES. Companies that dominate every day life across a broad segment of people and society.....world wide.

    i consider the big tech stocks as CONSUMER COMPANIES......GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT. These companies are dominant in society and business and cut across all segments of the economy....all over the world. These are the guts of the modern business world. Their products are broadly used by massive numbers of consumers daily. Same with.....COST, HD.

    CMG is a little bit of an outlier for me as a restaurant.....but....I believe they have captured the under 40 age group and are therefore the best of the fast food or semi-fast food industry. NVDA....nothing to say here other than they are simply.......MASSIVELY DOMINANT.

    PLTR.....is a flyer. Thanks to Zukodany, I began to follow this stock. They are very young but in my view have a good shot at joining the big tech monster companies. Time will tell.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the new year.......we never really had a correction in 2024......at least of any significance. Corrections are part of the normal market process and usually happen once or twice in a normal year.

    SO.....it is likely we will see a traditional correction at least once in 2025. It will be a drop of 10% to 20% in the markets and it will last for 1-3 months.

    Corrections happen all the time during bull markets. When one happens this year it is not a signal that the bull markets is over. It will be a time when stocks get ahead of themselves or some outside event triggers a market drop. It will be a period of market consolidation. It will be a period of some fear and panic as weaker investors start to doubt the markets. It will be a time when the financial media will fear-monger the hell out of the short term......and the negative NOISE will ramp up

    As usual........with corrections and bear markets.....for long term investors it will be a buying opportunity. How long it will last and when it will end will be totally opaque. BUT one thing is clear.....it will end.......and.....when it does end investors that simply sat through it and did nothing will be......GREATLY REWARDED.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    To continue with PLTR.

    This very young company.......as of January 2025......has a market cap of $181.99 billion, making it the 75th most valuable company in the world. In the SP500 is occupies the 58th spot based on market cap. The company went public in September of 2020......ONLY....4.3 years ago.

    A pretty amazing record and achievement for such a new and young company. As with any successful company that seems to come out of nowhere.....they appear to have GREAT MANAGEMENT that is extremely focused on growing the business.

    I just went through all their financials using my usual site. I like what I see in the growth and progress of the company over the past 4.3 years.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/

    Time will tell if they can continue to grow and boom......since in spite of their current success and media attention....they are a very new and young company......that at this point has a short history of profit (a couple of years).

    I would call this company a RISKY and AGGRESSIVE holding. Owning it requires RATIONALITY and REASON. It is NOT a....bet the farm stock. Due to the.....very..... young age of the company.
     
    #22676 WXYZ, Jan 4, 2025 at 9:02 AM
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2025 at 11:09 AM
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Well, I am a bit late to the end of the year party, but Happy 2025 to all of our posters here. I was tied up with busy work commitments towards the end of the year and then took off for a nice get away trip to close out 2024.

    As I suspected, some very good returns posted for 2024. Congrats to those who stuck with it and made it through. I always enjoy seeing and reading other long termers success and thoughts. It is all about the long journey and each investors individual goals. Thank you all for being here and sharing some of that.

    Of course, this year was a really easy year....at least in my view. As was pointed out upthread, no market correction to speak of. Nothing major to contend with for most of the previous year. Yes, there were all sorts of predictions, boogeyman theories, FED, a bazillion economic reports that were harped about, and all of the pundits warning and bracing for whatever. Absolutely nothing, but smooth sailing and a BUMPER crop of returns in our portfolio's.

    2024 for me ended with a +26%. A very nice return for my plan and thankful for it.

    2025 plan.... No major changes on the horizon. I will keep making contributions and add some extra when I can. I don't foresee adding any individual companies, but I might consider it if the right price came along with it. At this point in my life and career, I enjoy having a somewhat lazy and boring plan. There is no need to add any additional risks to obtain my goals. I am content and comfortably cruising toward retirement a bit down the road.
     
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  18. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    W what's your thoughts on $NOTE 20 percent gain a day. More room to run? If I held I would be up 20 percent in day.

    $LYFT should keep going up if Amazon buys it.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have no clue...I dont follow or know anything about either one. If anyone else does please chime in.
     
  20. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Do you know where their name cames from....Palantir?

    First time I heard about them was in a article, in a local paper in 2020. Now I see that article was an original article from NY Times...
    That article gives some interesting views, namemly current and previous-Palantir client portfolio in USA/Europe: Home Depot, Hershey, Coca-Cola American Express (old clients); CIA, Crédit Suisse, US Army, Ferrari Scuderia, Merck KGaA, Airbus etc (actual clients).

    Some intersting data:
    -Alex Karp, their CEO calls for a higher ambition. ‘We built our company to help the West’
    -Palantir says it doesn't do business in countries it considers adversaries of the US and its allies, namely China and Russia
    -they were born from a group of PayPal engineers (after PayPal beeing aquired by Ebay); it occurred to them that PayPal's anti-fraud algorithms could perhaps help the US government fight terrorismafter;

    Anyway I am not going to put all data in article, it is a long one! The idea was to explain their name.... :)....the company's name, Palantir Technologies, is inspired by the crystal stones [indestructible and allowing you to see events, past or future] in J.R.R. Tolkien's ‘The Lord of the Rings’!
     

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