The Long Term Investor

Nice post.....RG. I like that PLTR is not afraid to show some love for the USA and for freedom and democracy. It is one of the primary reasons I like this company and how they do business. In addition it is a smart business model to do massive business with the US GOVERNMENT........(just ask the big DEFENSE COMPANIES)......in addition to their....private business. The government business gives them a good dependable, steady, income base to build on.....while growing the private side of their company.

HERE is what AI told me:

"In The Lord of the Rings, palantíri are indestructible crystal balls that allow users to communicate and see events in other parts of Arda.The word comes from the Quenya words palan, meaning "far", and tir, meaning "watch over".
Here are some facts about palantíri:

• Origin
  The Elves of Valinor created the palantíri in the First Age.

• Uses

• Palantíri could be used for communication, to see events in the past or present, and to gain knowledge.Some palantíri could also be used to peer into the minds of others.

• Power
  The power of a palantír depended on the user's strength of will and mind.Inexperienced users might see blurry or haphazard visuals.

• Number
  There were originally many palantíri, but only a few remained in use by the time of The Lord of the Rings.

• Distribution
  Elendil took seven palantíri with him to Middle-earth after the Downfall of Númenor.He kept three for himself in Arnor and gave four to his sons in Gondor.

• Loss
  The palantíri were lost or misplaced over time, falling into rivers or disappearing when cities were sacked.

Some characters in The Lord of the Rings who used palantíri include Sauron, Saruman, Denethor, Aragorn, and Pippin."

 

Here is way more than most want to know.....pretty hardcore Lord Of The Rings stuff:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palantír

 

Poor Boeing. TOTAL FAILURE by disconnected, egotistic, self-absorbed and out of touch management. I was reading this little article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/05/boeing-one-year-since-doorplug-blowout.html

"Boeing has not posted an annual profit since 2018"

 

Of course missing from my recent talk about NVDA and PLTR is......you guessed it.....EARNINGS. The primary factor that will determine how both these companies do in 2025 is going to be earnings. They both....but especially PLTR....need to keep up the good BEATS...in order to continue the short term gains......and.....longer term momentum.

We might get a bit of a clue next week at the CES Tech conference. NVDA CEO....Jensen Huang will give the keynote speech and there will be questions from analysts on Tuesday.

AND....keep in mind that it will be a short week with the markets closed on January 9 for Jimmy Carter.

Here is some general EARNINGS info for forth quarter earnings that will start later this month.


Key Information

• Earnings Prediction: It is estimated, for the forth quarter that earnings growth for the S&P 500 will be 11.9% If this actually happens it would be the highest growth since Q4 2021 (3 years).

• Guidance: For Q4 2024, 71 companies in the SP500.....negative EPS guidance.......35 S&P 500
companies........positive guidance.

• Forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.4........above the 5-year average.

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_010325.pdf

 

Since we are a COMMUNITY. I ask everyone reading, posting, or lurking here to invite your friends, family and others to join us. The more people we have the better.

AND...if you are inclined.....make your first post on here in 2025. ALL levels of experience and ability are invited to post.

We are now up to 6.2......years.....of content in this thread. Much of that content reflects my personal investing journey as it has happened in real time over those years.

SO...with that amount of time.....6.2 years.....this thread is NOW a long term investing record and history. A guideline and example to others that will hopefully MOTIVATE people to......take charge......of their financial lives.

I dont know how many years we will ultimately get on here during the life of this thread......but.....every additional year will turn this thread into more and more of an example of the POWER of LONG TERM INVESTING.

It is my intent to show the.....good, the bad, and the ugly.....of the short term and how it all works out over the longer term.

And......it is my hope that....even when I am no longer posting on here, others will continue the thread......and/or.....it will continue to be read as a Long Term Investing.....example and resource. In my view MUCH of the content here is......TIMELESS....and never going to be out of style. At least for me it is simply.......timeless and always relevant TRUTH....since I have been SUCCESSFULLY investing in the long term style reflected in this thread for over 55 years.

(ONE NOTE: NOTHING on this thread is intended to be investing advice to others. It is all about..."ME, ME, ME". "YOU"....have to find your own investing path....and....what works for "YOU"..... based on your own personal circumstances and what is right for your own personal situation in life.)

YES.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

NOW......as a "welcome" to anyone new I am going to RE-POST my initial posts on this thread. They are just as relevant now as 6.2 years ago:

OCTOBER 2, 2018

"I am new to this board. I am NOT new to internet stock posting, however, having previously posted for over 25 years on another site under the same thread title. Over the years that forum degenerated into just politics, social discussion and general gossip and chat. As a result I made the decision to eliminate my LONG TERM INVESTING thread (the highest viewed investing thread on the board) and begin the search for a new INVESTING discussion home.

I will post more over the next few weeks on my background and investing history. Needless to say, I am a LONG TERM INVESTOR and have been for 50+ years. I have invested through the bear market of the 1970's, the stagflation time of the early 1980's, the Regan boom, held through the "flash crash", through the dot-com era and crash. I have invested up to and through the CMO and derivative mess of 2008 to 2009 and continuously up to the present.

My approach is LONG TERM investing in a concentrated portfolio of, usually, 10-15 individual stocks and three mutual funds. I DO NOT believe in or use Market Timing, Technical Analysis, or Trading. My approach is basic Fundamental Analysis combined with my experience, education, and investing intuition. I focus on the BIG CAP side of the markets and hold my stocks and funds for years until they no longer fit my criteria for anticipated growth.

I have two SEPARATE investing goals:

1. Beat the SP500 annually.

2. Achieve a LONG TERM total return of at least 10%.

I have achieved both goals over the LONG TERM. BUT.....due to my financial situation, I never get greedy. I am content to simply double my money over 7.2 years (rule of 72's). In spite of my age my stock market money is and will continue to be LONG TERM for the remainder of my life since I am not dependent on that money.

I currently manage a number of family accounts as well as a family trust. All of the accounts are set up the same way and in the same investments. Basically on a very MICRO, MICRO level I run a "family office", doing the investing, taxes, estate planing, legal, and other work for extended family.

Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed:

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Boeing
Chevron
Costco
Home Depot
Honeywell
Johnson & Johnson
Nike
Nvidia
3M

MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund
Dodge & Cox Stock Fund"

OCTOBER 2, 2018

"To continue my "little" introduction to this forum:

As a LONG TERM, fully invested, all the time, investor I do not trade, I hold for the LONG TERM. I do NOT sell unless a holding starts to under-perform my expectations and lose long term growth potential. In an average year I will usually make ZERO trades.

My portfolio (see above) was started many many years ago with half the funds put into the stock side of the portfolio and half the funds put in the mutual fund side of the portfolio. Over the years I allow the investments to run as they wish and I DO NOT re-balance. Currently the stock side is about 60% of the portfolio and the funds about 40%. My personal belief is.....much of the "stuff" you see in the media now about re-balancing and diversification, at least how practiced by the majority of investors, is simply busy work and killing returns for the majority of investors. I believe people using the current thinking are re-balancing and diversifying themselves to death in their investing and killing their returns. The emphasis and doubling up of holdings in the fund and stock side is INTENTIONAL.

Over the years I have held many of the BIG name stocks, stocks like EXXON, GE, Colgate, P&G, General Mills, MSFT, Cisco, etc, etc, etc since my focus investing is......BIG CAP, ICONIC BRAND, WORLD WIDE, AMERICAN, GREAT MANAGEMENT, MARKET DOMINANT, companies. I do NOT do International investing....ever, or developing country investing. I consider my BIG CAP, AMERICAN, companies that dominate around the world with their products and business model to by my International exposure. I NEVER invest in auto companies, drug companies, banks, airlines, insurance, or financial companies.

I am NOT afraid to take a chance once in a while with a BIG single stock investment IF....and only IF...I see a probability (yes probability, not possibility) of a once in a lifetime company. For example, I invested ALL of my liquid cash assets in MSFT in 1990 and held through 2002. Another example of a once in a lifetime company that I have invested in is AMZN. I am EXTREMELY clinical in my investing and decisions about investing. I see "the markets" and "indexes" for what they are....individual businesses. As an "old time" investor, financial reports are my main source of information and I definately know how to read a balance sheet, Income statement, cash flow statement, etc, etc.

Anyway.....to be continued:"

OCTOBER 2 2018

My first contact with and message from the first poster on here.....TomB16.

OCTOBER 2, 2018

"THANK YOU TomB16.

Is everyone else here a trader? Or what? In any event I welcome ANYONE to post on this thread regardless of their investing style. One of my mantras is......if it works for you do it.....ignore everyone else. My style works for me and has for a long time. But, if you are a Technical Investor, or Trader, or Market Timer and it works for you, than do it. All investing is personal. What works for me may not work for you. That is why this thread is NOT intended as investment advice. First, this is the internet, there is no way for anyone to verify what I am saying. Same for all others on this board. In addition, it is impossible to give advice to total strangers. So take what you want from this thread, but it is NOT intended as specific investment advice to others since I do not know you or your situation in the slightest.

Now, to continue this lengthy introduction:

I intend to post actual results once in a while as I go along. I also intend to post any trades or changes in my portfolio (above) as they are made. This serves as a historical investing record for me and will serve as somewhat of a verification of what I am saying and posting for others.

Outside of investing my relevant background is......I am a college graduate, grad school in business and law school grad (although I am not licensed and do NOT practice law). I am approximately 70 years old. I founded, owned, and ran a small business in my earlier life. I sold my business and retired at age 49 and have not worked in day job since. Over the past 20 years I have primarily lived off my investing and personal assets. My retirement at age 49 was made possible by my investing during my business years.

I started stock investing as a child in the late 1950's and a teen in the 1960's. My investing education started with my mother who had a portfolio of individual stocks and a few funds during that time span. It was extremely RARE for anyone in those years to own stocks or funds. It was the era of round lot trades and having to go down to to brokers office to watch the ticker if you wanted to get info on a day to day basis. It was the era of the Wall Street journal and later for me the Investors Business Daily newspaper which was more comprehensive than the WSJ. There were no 401K, no IRA. The changes in investing over that time span have been massive.

One constant over that time that has remained the same is human psychology and the ability of humans to screw things up by making them way more complex than they really need to be. Actually for the VAST MAJORITY of people today about all that is needed in terms of investing is to simply put ALL investing funds and retirement money in a simple SP500 INDEX FUND and let if ride LONG TERM. Research tells us that the great majority of professional money managers will rarely beat the SP500 on a consistent basis. Forget all the charts, quant data, Technical voodoo, etc, etc, etc. Just look at your results and if you are not beating the SP500 at least half the time (hardly anyone is if they are honest) than why beat your head against the wall. Just put it in a SP500 Index fund and forget about it, enjoy life.

So.........

I will post results once in a while.
I will post any moves or trades.
I will post relevant articles and information, with discussion.
I will do my usual stream of consciousness "stuff".
I might make a few predictions once in a while for fun.

Much of the "stuff" that I might post is going to be short term oriented. Market events, historic happenings, recent data, short term results, political events that impact investing. But, all this "stuff" in combination impacts LONG TERM INVESTING. It also impacts the ability of people to stay in the markets and get the benefit of long term compounding.

As for right now.....the markets are BOOMING. I believe we are in for a historic year end rally in stocks. I would not be surprised to see a gain of 8-10% minimum between now and the end of the year. For those that lived through the Regan tax cuts and boom years, which extended all the way to the dot com collapse, this is deja-vu all over again. For those too young to remember that time span, hopefully you will learn something about economics, taxes, business, and investing over the next few years."

 

MY COMMENT

Interesting in the above that now....6.2 years later.....the stocks NO LONGER include:

BOEING
NIKE
3M
HONEYWELL
JOHNSON & JOHNSON
CHEVRON

Funds no longer include:

DODGE & COX STOCK FUND.

AND....I dont have any memory of owning NVDA back than.....it must not have been for very long. I owned CHEVRON off and on a few times over many decades....it always disapointed me. Same with Boeing.

 

Amazing how often we are on the same page Smokie. Thanks for being here.

 

Good question Strathmore.

We actually started at birth. We did that by being very open talking about money and investing in front of the kids. Of course you have to be sensitive to keeping it positive and appropriate when kids are listening. When we made positive money plans or were talking about buying something....a house or a car or art or an investment...as long as it was appropriate we discussed it in front of the kids. We did not necessarily discuss it....with them....but in front of them and with them listening. It is amazing what they will simply....absorb.

As to actually talking with kids about investing I would think somewhere between about ages 10-12 would be about right.....to casually talk about your investing and your results. It depends on the kid.

Of course we gave our kids an allowance from about age 7 or 8, through the end of college. In my view it is good for kids to have their own money to manage and spend.

AND....the above will result in questions from kids as they are very curious. As long as it was positive....we have NEVER hidden money talk from the kids. To this day.....we are totally open with them about our investments, finances, and assets.

How do others do it?

 

A nice little article. As usual it all seems so simple....but how many people are actually able to pull it off?

5 New Year’s money resolutions if you want to be a millionaire
Shopping less and investing more could make that millionaire lifestyle become an easier target

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/five-new-years-money-resolutions-becoming-millionaire

The article contains discussion on these topics:

1. Go to the grocery store ... less

2. Invest like a millionaire — starting with $100

3. Pay off your debts

4. Audit your recurring subscriptions

5. Your point programs are losing pace to inflation

It’s not a resolution, it’s a game plan

 

I like this little article.

10 Charts Showing the US Consumer Is in Excellent Shape

https://www.apolloacademy.com/10-charts-showing-the-us-consumer-is-in-excellent-shape/

Here is a summary of the charts that are included:

"The US consumer is in incredible shape.

Specifically:

– The incoming weekly data shows continued strength in consumer spending, and outlook surveys show continued strength ahead (Charts 1 to 3).

– Credit card debt as a share of disposable income is below pre-pandemic levels (Chart 4).

– The effective interest rate on mortgage debt outstanding is only 4% (Chart 5).

– Households are reporting that it is easier to get access to credit, and banks are more willing to lend to consumers (Charts 6 and 7).

– HELOC balances are rising, and savings are rising for most households across the income distribution (Charts 8 and 9).

– Debt to disposable income is declining, and US households are in much better shape than households in Canada and Australia (Chart 10).

The bottom line is that incomes are high, stock prices are high, home prices are high, debt levels are low, interest rate sensitivity is low, and banks are more willing to lend to households."

 

Talking about...."excellent shape".......the markets today are BOOMING. Since the start of the new year we have been in a BIG RALLY.

Not much happening this week....a bit of economic news and the tech conference. We are seeing the BULL MARKET exert itself after the completion of the year end profit taking and re-balancing. It is also nice to see the financial media simply.....MUTE....at the moment. I think they were all wound up to hype and fear monger a bad start to the new year.....and....they did not get their chance.

What we are strongly seeing right now is the POSITIVE BIAS of the bull market being unleashed for a few days......along with.....the impact of the election results.

it has been a while since I looked earlier today....but at that time I had a BIG GAIN with only two stock in the red....PLTR and CMG. SO far we are once again POWERING into the day.

 

HERE is the market today....as we start out the short.....four day....market week.

Dow rises more than 200 points, Nvidia leads chip stocks higher

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks jumped on Monday, recovering from last week’s losses as chipmakers jumped.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 218 points higher, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 climbed nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4%.

Chip stocks led the session’s gains after Foxconn announced record fourth-quarter revenue. Nvidia rose more than 3.1%, putting the chipmaker on track for a record close. Broadcom gained 2.9%, while Micron Technology advanced 9%.

Also aiding market sentiment on Monday is a Washington Post report saying President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plan would be narrower than anticipated. According to the report, the levies would only cover critical imports. Trump called for “universal” tariffs as high as 10%-20% during his campaign.

Ford and General Motors
shares gained 2% on optimism a more restrained tariff policy from Trump wouldn’t spark a global trade war.

Investors are entering another shortened trading week – which will wrap the next of the first five January trading days – on a wobbly note and with lingering concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter.

The December jobs report is due out Friday and will be one of the last key pieces of data before the Fed meeting at the end of this month. Investors are also watching the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Tuesday and December ADP Employment Survey Wednesday.

The major averages are coming off a losing week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 0.5% each. The Dow shed 0.6% last week.

Nvidia on track for a record close

Nvidia popped more than 4% on Monday, boosted by a broader move higher in the semiconductor space following a strong quarterly report from Foxconn. The move put the AI darling on track for its first-ever close above $150 per share, surpassing a previous record close of $148.88 set in early November."

MY COMMENT

A nice rally today. I am seeing ZERO negative media coverage today. It just shows what is possible if we did not have to ENDURE the daily 24/7 media environment every single day.

It reminds me of the old days. It was so refreshing as an investor to have NOTHING in the media on a daily basis regarding the markets if you did not get the Wall Street Journal.

 

WE ARE BEING SHOWN THE MONEY TODAY......BOOM, BASH, BAM.

We are making hay while the sun is shining....today. Actually.....a very true statement if you know anything about hay.

 

I see that NVDA has now hit a new.....ALL TIME HIGH.

 

Not much to say about the markets today. They are on fire....especially the NASDAQ.

I am just being swept along.......riding the wave. As a long term fully invested investor.....there is nothing for me to do. It is sit and enjoy the ride time. Today and the past few market days are a perfect example of how EXPLOSIVE gains happen.

As icing on the cake.....or perhaps as part of the ingredients in the cake......today.....there is little to nothing in the financial media. Certainly NOTHING negative. It is so nice not to have the HECTORING from the media. Lets hope they continue on vacation all week and give us a break from the negativity.

The markets dont need my help today.....so I dont have much more to say at this moment other than.....ENJOY THE RIDE.

 

STILL....doing very nicely today. STILL....down in PLTR and CMG.

Poor PLTR is down by nearly 6% today. Apparently it is due to a single analyst tanking the stock with a price target of.....$60.

WHATEVER.....especially considering that this is coming from one of the big banks.....Morgan Stanley....which ended coverage of the stock in November. Now they have an analyst that has assumed coverage of the stock.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...-palantir-stock-price-target-after-2024-surge

MY COMMENT

In general is it simply RIDICULOUS that a new analyst assuming coverage of this stock.....has the market power to tank the stock by nearly 6% today.

This is coming from Morgan Stanley who is.....(ALLEGEDLY in my view)...... playing games with this stock or having some issue with their internal analysis of this stock?

"Sanjit Singh assumed lead coverage of Palantir (PLTR) and slapped an underweight rating and $60 price target on the company. The firm previously had an underweight rating until November, when it removed its rating for the company to re-evaluate the company."

I dont mind them taking a negative view....but....I do think it is strange that they dropped all coverage of the stock in November.......when they had a negative view.......did a re-evaluation....and now about 1.5 months later basically have put out the SAME negative view and tanked the stock for a day or two.

First it strikes me as strange that they dropped coverage of the 57th largest company in the SP500. Second it strikes me as strange that they sat for 1.5 months supposedly/allegedly doing a re-evaluation. That seems like a long time to me in the modern world of instant information.

Sounds like more of an....(ALLEGED)..... internal issue at Morgan Stanley than anything else to me? But.......I have no idea why or how Morgan Stanley does anything.

My view on this is simply.....off the cuff SPECULATION and "ALLEGEDLY"...... based personal opinion....NOT....intended as FACT.