The above line from the article explains it all. A loser and whiner. Translation: "I can't beat passive investing....and investors have seen through the charade." Investors have wised up considerably over the years to such things as fees, they have been able to see the underperformance with their own eyes. It is really that simple. No matter how often they want to squeal and complain about it they have been getting beat soundly for years now.
I say this as a CLINICAL observer of the markets and the economy.....the government that is set to lose power in a week is trying to intentionally screw things up.....especially the economy....as much as possible in their final days. I dont care about politics....but the actions that I have seen happening over the past 2-4 weeks are CLEARLY aimed at trying to screw up the economy and other issues as much as possible during their last weeks in power. I also believe that much of the recent negative financial media coverage of the last few weeks is also being driven by political operatives. Example.....all the very fear-mongering stories I have seen lately about the coming.....OMG....tariffs. Of course most of them totally distort reality......and....distort that much of this talk is simply a negotiating ploy.. It is a BIG SHAME...but that is where we are now in the USA.
The obvious stories driving the markets today......DUH. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq soar as inflation cools, bank earnings shine https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...tion-cools-bank-earnings-shine-135206962.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks rallied on Wednesday as high hopes for bank earnings paid off and a crucial consumer inflation update showed prices increased less than expected in December. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped more than 1.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose more than 1.5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) soared 2.2%. Stocks took a leg higher after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target in December. Prices climbed 0.2% month-on-month on a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, an easing from November's 0.3% gain. Over last year, core CPI rose 3.2%. Until the latest print, annual core CPI had been stuck at a 3.3% gain for the four months. December was the first time since July that the metric reflected a deceleration in price growth. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) dropped over 14 basis points to trade around 4.64% after the cooler-than-expected reading. It had been up at its highest level in more than a year, serving as a headwind for stocks. The interest rate sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) soared in reaction, rising 2.3%. Traders still see just a 3% chance that the Fed lowers rates in January, per the CME FedWatch Tool. They remain split on whether a cut will come in the back half of this year, with odds of easing in June now seen as more likely than not. Spirits also got a boost from Wall Street bank earnings reports, which brought surging profits thanks to a dealmaking revival and investment banking strength. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) delivered on optimistic analyst expectations with a second straight year of record profit, while Goldman Sachs (GS) profit beat estimates. BlackRock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BNY (BK) also booked bumper quarters. MY COMMENT GEE.....who would have ever imagined any of the above. WELL.....anyone that has their eye on REALITY.
OK......I will take what gains I am given today....as a fully invested all the time investor it is not like I have any choice. LETS ENJOY A RARE DAY......rare at least based on what we have had to ENDURE lately.
I just checked in on the markets and my account.......a big 6 figure gain in the two primary accounts. About time......but I am probably about flat for the YTD. ALL of my stocks were up when I looked at about 2:30.
A perfect day for me today....ALL....stocks closed strongly in the GREEN. Plus a good beat on a big day on the SP500 by....0.92%. Today brought me up just to over flat for YTD. NOW.......LETS KEEP IT GOING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
This should be a big story today....but....I am not really seeing much on it. TSMC net profit hits record high as fourth-quarter results top expectations on robust AI chip demand https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/16/tsm...ts-expectations-on-strong-ai-chip-demand.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. December-quarter revenue and profit topped analyst estimates as the company benefits from the AI boom. TSMC’s revenue in the December quarter rose 38.8% from a year earlier to NT$868.46 billion, while net income rose 57.0% to a record NT$374.68 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s fourth-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations, as demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications continued to surge. Here are TSMC’s fourth-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates: Net revenue: 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.36 billion), vs. NT$850.08 billion expected Net income: NT$374.68 billion, vs. NT$366.61 billion expected TSMC profit rose 57% from a year earlier to a record high, while revenue jumped 38.8%. The firm had forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion. As the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer TSMC produces advanced processors for clients such as Nvidia and Apple and has benefited from the megatrend in favor of AI. TSMC’s high-performance computing division, which encompasses artificial intelligence and 5G applications, drove sales in the fourth quarter, contributing 53% of revenue. That HPC revenue was up 19% from the previous quarter. “The surging demand for AI chips has exceeded expectations in Q4,” Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC, adding that revenue was also bolstered by demand for the advanced chips in Apple’s latest iPhone 16 model. The Taiwan-based company first released its December revenue last week, bringing its annual total to NT$ 2.9 trillion — a record-breaking year in sales since the company went public in 1994. “We observed robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2024,” Wendell Huang, chief financial officer and vice president at TSMC, said in an earnings call on Thursday, adding that revenue from AI accelerator products accounted for “close to a mid-teens percentage” of total revenue in 2024. “Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 as a strong surge in AI-related demand continues as a key enabler of AI applications,” Huang added. However, TSMC may face some headwinds in 2025 from U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor shipments to China and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy of President-elect Donald Trump. TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said the company will not attend Trump’s inauguration as its philosophy is to keep a low profile, Reuters reported. Trump, who will assume office next week, has threatened to impose broad tariffs on imports and has previously accused Taiwan of “stealing” the U.S. chip business. . Still, Counterpoint’s Wang forecasts 2025 to be another strong year for TSMC, with significant revenue growth fueled by strong and expanding demand for AI applications, both in diversity and volume. Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC gained 81% in 2024 and were trading 3.75% higher on Thursday. Stocks of European semiconductor companies trading on the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange rose Thursday, with ASML up 3.5%, ASM International gaining 3.75% and Besi rising 5.1%." MY COMMENT A CLEAR earnings BEAT. this should be good news for the chip a nd tech stocks today......but....."should" is a strange thing in the world of the stock markets.
More good news for investors and the FED. December retail sales grow less than expected, November sales revised higher https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dece...-november-sales-revised-higher-133316679.html AND US weekly jobless claims increase; labor market conditions still healthy https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-134116383.html MY COMMENT The above along with the PPI and CPI data this week are ALL very good indicators for the economy and especially the FED. the strong majority of all econ0omic data over the past six months or more has been POSITIVE for investors, the economy and the FED. Although you would never know it from the daily headlines.
How true. A Volatile Response to Solid December Jobs Remember short-term volatility can arise for any (or no) reason. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/a-volatile-response-to-solid-december-jobs (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The first jobs report of 2025 was a banger after nonfarm payrolls blew away expectations. And of course, in response to the strong numbers, the S&P 500 … fell? Yep, US stocks slid -1.5% on Friday before a modest rise Monday. The alleged culprit: Strong hiring will slow or stop future Fed rate cuts, robbing the economy of needed monetary support. But cool down. We have already seen Fed rate cuts aren’t critical for markets or the economy—and nothing about this report foretells the Fed’s 2025 moves. December’s report was solid. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% from November’s 4.2%, but the headline grabber was nonfarm payrolls rising by 256,000—trouncing expectations for 153,000.[ii] Hiring in the health care, government and social assistance sectors led the way while manufacturing dipped by -13,000 (its fourth decline in the past five months).[iii] Overall, payrolls rose by 2.2 million in 2024 (averaging 186,000 per month), behind 2023’s 3.0 million but ahead of 2019’s 2.0 million gain.[iv] Even the less-reported U6 unemployment rate—which includes people working part-time for economic reasons and discouraged workers who haven’t sought a job in four weeks—fell to 7.5% from 7.7% a month earlier, the lowest since June.[v] Instead of celebrating resilience, though, pundits immediately began fretting over the implications. Most landed on the notionstronger-than-expected data will push the Fed to delay rate cuts, removing a key source of economic support. This stems from the misperceived notion the economy requires rate cuts and lower borrowing costs to support growth. We think this conventional wisdom is off base. One, monetary policy doesn’t have a predetermined economic effect—for good or ill. The Fed began hiking rates in March 2022 and kept raising them (including some “jumbo” 75 basis point [bp] hikes from June – November 2022), with the final one occurring at July 2023’s meeting. Yet after a -1.0% annualized Q1 2022 contraction (which stemmed from falling exports and government spending and investment, not weak consumer spending or business investment), GDP expanded from Q2 2022 – Q3 2024.[vi] Moreover, the swiftest growth (4.4% annualized) occurred in Q3 2023—when rates were at their highest (5.25% – 5.50%).[vii] From a market perspective, US stocks were already in a new bear market when the Fed’s rate hike cycle started in March 2022.[viii] That shallow, sentiment-driven decline gave way to a new bull market in October 2022—waaaaay before the Fed’s final, July 2023 hike. On the flipside, rate cuts since the summer haven’t triggered booming markets. See Europe, where the ECB began cutting rates on June 12 last year. For the rest of 2024, eurozone stocks were down -6.4%, well behind global stocks’ 6.1% return.[ix] Two, while pundits’ speculating about what the Fed will do next is a well-worn tradition, monetary policy is unpredictable. No one knows how central bankers will interpret the economic data, political backdrop and other variables and act.[x] Look no further than 2024 to see evidence of this. As we observed last May, fed-funds futures traders in January placed a 0% probability of no change to the fed-funds target range (which at the time was 5.25% – 5.50%) by the April 30 – May 1 FOMC meetings. Most projected the range would fall to 4.75% – 5.00% by that time. But when the April-May meeting came and went, rates were unchanged. Fast forward to September 19’s meeting. A month before the FOMC’s gathering, traders projected a 76% probability of a 25-bp cut. [xi] Heck, a week before the meeting, the probability of a 25-bp cut was at 86%.[xii] What happened? The Fed cut rates by 50 bps. Not that any of this mattered much to stocks, in our view. The S&P 500 rose 21.1% from the start of 2024 to September’s rate cut, and following the cut, US stocks returned 3.3% through the end of the year.[xiii] Friday’s reaction strikes us as normal short-term volatility—not anything to act on. You needn’t go back far to find a US jobs report at the center of a volatile stretch. Global stocks fell sharply in early August last year, due in part to July’s US jobs numbers supposedly warning the Fed was moving too slowly with rate cuts (a Bank of Japan rate hike also contributed to the bounciness). That summertime swoon didn’t prevent global stocks from delivering 20%+ returns last year. While jobs numbers often get eyeballs, they don’t reveal anything new to markets. They are late-lagging economic indicators that confirm business decisions companies made months ago—evidence of past growth, not where things are headed. As uncomfortable as market bounciness may feel, the optimal investing decision is to not react, in our view—take a breath and remember enduring short-term volatility is the price for stocks’ long-term gains. Standing there and doing nothing is usually more beneficial than reacting to stocks’ daily swings." MY COMMENT Like a lot of market volatility....the recent skittish market action....is NOT based on anything fundamental. It is simply based on opinion makers delivering negativity and fear-mongering based on factors that are not predictable for stocks. In other words NOISE. AND....in fact....much of the data that is spun as negative is far from negative for the markets.
Earnings so far to start the season are BRILLIANT. The big banks are putting up big BEAT numbers. A harbinger for what is to come over the next 6-8 weeks. Financials Get Q4 Earnings Off to a Good Start https://www.investing.com/analysis/financials-get-q4-earnings-off-to-a-good-start-200656283 "Q4 earnings kicked off with five of the biggest companies within the financial sector. JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Blackrock (NYSE:BLK), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) all reported results this morning. All five beat earnings estimates, with Goldman and JPM providing the biggest upside surprise." MY COMMENT GEE.....who would have imagined this. Well......only most of the people that contribute to and read this thread. The media and others including many of the "professionals"......not so much.
And on the same topic. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley cement a Wall Street revival https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank...y-cement-a-wall-street-revival-120303436.html "Fourth-quarter 2024 profits at Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) more than doubled, cementing a Wall Street revival that has dealmakers optimistic about the coming Trump era in 2025. Strong investment banking and trading results also helped push profits higher at other big banks in the fourth quarter, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC)." MY COMMENT Business in on fire.....even if the markets are not. BUT fear not......sooner or later the markets will catch up and when it happens it will be EXPLOSIVE as usual. The markets operate in SPURTS.....followed by periods of consolidation of the gains.
Kind of a summary to some of the above.....the business climate, consumer behavior, and company results. US Retail Sales Broadly Advance, Capping a Solid Holiday Season https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-broadly-advance-134801210.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- US retail sales broadly advanced in December, indicating strong consumer demand to wrap up the holiday season. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.4% after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in November, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales climbed 0.3%. The retail data showed so-called control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — increased 0.7% in December, the most in three months. The measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations. Ten of the report’s 13 categories posted increases, including gains at furniture and sporting goods stores. Auto sales advanced 0.7% after robust gains in the prior two months, bolstered by President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to end tax credits for electric vehicles, as well as lower interest rates and greater manufacturer incentives. Receipts at gasoline service stations increased, reflecting higher prices at the pump. Thursday’s figures point to a consumer that held up well in the holiday season, supported by wages rising faster than prices. While underlying inflation eased last month, Americans are still contending with a high cost of living, and some retailers are considering raising prices in anticipation of higher tariffs on imported goods after Trump takes office next week. That may distort the retail sales data going forward — because they’re not adjusted for inflation, an advance could merely reflect higher prices rather than greater sales activity. Separate data Thursday showed initial jobless claims rose by more than forecast last week, but the four-week moving average — which smooths choppiness in the data from week to week — dropped to the lowest since April, indicating low levels of dismissals. From December 2023, retail sales advanced 3.8%, moderating from the prior three years but still defying expectations for a dramatic slowdown under the weight of high prices and borrowing costs. Consumer and business sentiment has been rising since the election but inflation expectations have climbed as well, so it remains to be seen if higher confidence translates into higher spending. Speaking after data Wednesday showed the core consumer price index stepped down in December, several Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that price pressures will continue to cool. Policymakers will likely hold interest rates steady at their meeting later this month, but the CPI figures opened the possibility of resuming rate cuts in March — much sooner than previously thought. Strong Growth Control-group sales increased 5.4% at an annualized pace in the latest three months, boding well for fourth-quarter GDP coming off a robust third quarter. A number of consumer companies released earnings and provided mixed updated guidance Monday ahead of an industry conference taking place this week in Orlando, Florida. Macy’s Inc. issued a downbeat outlook for sales in the current quarter, while other retailers including Lululemon, Shake Shack, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. and Urban Outfitters reported positive sales results. The retail sales figures aren’t adjusted for inflation and largely reflect purchases of goods, which comprise a relatively narrow share of overall consumer outlays. Personal consumption expenditures data due Jan. 31 will provide more details on inflation-adjusted spending on goods and services in December. Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, declined 0.3%, the biggest drop since the start of last year." MY COMMENT This is what I call the REAL survey of Consumer confidence.....are people spending money. I dont care what someone tells a survey taker....what counts is their real world behavior and for the economy the consumer is definately ALIVE and WELL. The economic data and everything that is happening right now with the new government taking over has us well on the path to a......GOLDY-LOCKS economy and investing environment. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. The one little cloud....the poor restaurant business. it is suffering greatly. I have no doubt that table and customer count is down in most restaurants. I see it in the economic data and I see it every day when we go out to lunch. Prices are simply way too high. A perfect example of the concept of DEMAND DESTRUCTION. "What Is Demand Destruction? In economics, demand destruction refers to a permanent or sustained decline in the demand for a certain good in response to persistent high prices or limited supply. Because of persistent high prices, consumers may decide that it is not worth purchasing as much of that good, or seek out alternatives as substitutes." https://www.investopedia.com/demand-destruction-5222107
And of course....the markets are now ALL red. I am sure I am in the green to start the day.....due to NVDA and PLTR being UP. I currently have four stocks UP and five down.
When I look at all my normal sites and content I am struck by the fact that there is little new content today. The headlines and articles are basically the same as yesterday. So.....nothing new going on. We have everything in place today and for the foreseeable future for a good market.....now....we just have to see if it will actually happen. Of course we know that the short term markets are NOT rational........and....can not be predicted. I guess I will go do something else for now and let the markets settle in a bit as they try to find direction for today.
I just looked at my account for the first time today. My result so far......0.00%. I have five stocks up.....PLTR, CMG, HD, NVDA, and MSFT. the best of the bunch right now is PLTR up over 2%. I have four stocks down.....AMZN, COST, GOOGL, and AAPL. the worst of the bunch is AAPL down over 2%. So far a very directionless day.
I look at a lot of art and other auctions. AND....recently over the past 2-4 years I have seen a significant rise in the amount of fakes and fraud. BUYER BEWARE. Just because something is in an auction does not mean it is real. In many....especially small and local auctions...I often see paintings attributed to an artist that are obvious fakes. I also see "prints" listed as "paintings" in a very deceptive way. Even more moderate priced paintings.....$1000 to $5000.....are not immune to fraud. It is just rampant. So, if you are new to art collecting or any other kind of collecting......please......find good national dealers or galleries with the reputation and expertise to deal with......until you become an expert yourself. A good dealer or gallery will stand behind the authenticity of what they sell. They will also get the cream of the crop of whatever it is that you are collecting. Of course like everything....to find the great dealer or gallery you have to do your RESEARCH. Insurers balk at $19.7M claim on fake Basquiat paintings seized by FBI https://www.investopedia.com/demand-destruction-5222107
I like this little article. It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times (to be an investor) https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2...-it-was-the-worst-of-times-to-be-an-investor/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "There has never been a better time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. There has also never been a worse time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. Although it may seem heretical, there is a strong case to be made that the evolution of the investment industry – in particular the wonderful technological advancements – has actually made life more difficult. Why? Because so little thought is given to the behavioural consequences of the profound changes we have witnessed. Indeed much of the technological progress we have seen threatens to turn investors into gamblers. There are two elements that are central to short-term investor decision making – emotional stimulus and friction. Emotional stimulus simply means that how we feel impacts and often overwhelms the choices we make. What the psychologist Paul Slovic might call the ‘affect heuristic’. This could be fear, greed, anxiety, excitement, envy or a multitude of other things. The problem for investors is that we are engulfed by a constant barrage of financial market babble that inevitably provokes an emotional response. We can see how our portfolio performs minute by minute, we hear about the incredible successes of other investors on social media, we get bombarded with news about every market fluctuation. All of these things make us feel something, which often compels us to take action. This might be harmless enough if it were it not coupled with another development – the removal of friction from our investment decision making. Friction simply means how hard something is to do, and it is more powerful than we think. As Robert I. Sutton and Huggy Rao argue in their new book: ‘The Friction Project‘, we can get ourselves into big trouble by making the wrong things easy and the right things hard. The issue for investors is that technological developments have made many things easy – checking portfolios and trading – but without careful consideration of the negative behavioural implications. Investors have ended up in a situation where we are overwhelmed by emotional stimulus and have no friction to stop ourselves reacting to it. It is as if the industry has said – ‘humans are prone to costly behavioural mistakes, so let’s make them as easy as possible to make’. Of course, it is hard for any investment provider to say to their clients – ‘we are going to make things harder for you because we don’t trust you to make sensible choices’, but at the very least stronger behavioural interventions and better guidance is a necessity. In the UK, online gambling firms are subject to a range of requirements related to client behaviour in order to obtain a license. Tools such as deposit limits and time outs are required features. These act as behavioural checks and balances, imperfect certainly but at least acknowledging some of the unfortunate realities of human behaviour. It is easy to say that investing and gambling are two different things, but they are not so distinct from eachother. Indeed, the exact same decision may be a gamble for one person and an investment for another. Two people might buy the same amount of Apple shares, one for a long-term share of profits and the other because they think the company will beat earnings forecasts later that day. One decision feels like an investment and the other a gamble. The difference between the two can sometimes just be intent and opportunity. The present environment for investors – defined by noise, emotional stimulus and an absence of friction – will almost certainly drag many of us away from investing and towards gambling, where our actions will be increasingly short-term and speculative with poor odds of success. This is in the interests of some in the industry but certainly not most investors. This frictionless backdrop also makes how firms communicate more critical than ever. Flooding investors with incessant market comment might be okay if there is friction present. If it is hard to trade, then maybe what is said doesn’t really matter as it is all quickly forgotten. This doesn’t apply anymore. Anything that is communicated to investors might be acted upon. Nothing should be considered benign. We should always ask – how might what we are saying make an investor feel and what might they do about it? I understand the theory about why today is such a fantastic time to be an investor and much of it is valid. I fear, however, that human nature might mean there has never been a worse or more dangerous time to be an investor. It is probably time we took behavior seriously." MY COMMENT I agree completely. this is a big issue for any investor today. it is also a HUGE issue for the markets and our market structure. The markets will be disconnected from business and economic reality. it will basically signal the end of the small retail investor and the end of the market system as we now know it. it will also signal the end of any connection between business results and investors. If I had to bet on it.....I would guess...that eventually this will actually happen. Hopefully....beyond my lifetime.
The markets slowly went negative today.....and than in the last 45 minutes of the day powered much more to the negative. The negative attitude that is infecting the markets continues in force. This is in spite of good economic news today for investors and the FED. In spite of.......great earnings out today. AND in spite of...even some of the FED people speaking today about another rate cut sooner than expected (March). We are simply caught up in a market rip tide that we are not breaking free from any time soon. I was in the RED today.....of course. I had three stocks UP today.....CMG, PLTR, and HD. I also got beat by the SP500 by 1.11%. I have basically lost all my gains YTD and am now back to FLAT for the YTD.
I dont underestimate the ability of the markets to ignore great earnings and favorable economic news....we are seeing it pretty much every day so far in 2025. AND....this is happening when things are.....ALL GOOD. I would hate to see the markets if things turned BAD.....in business or economics. We are all set up....mentally and psychologically......for a really fast and really nasty DROP in the markets. All that is needed is some event to set the whole thing off. BUT.....I will, of course, continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
