I just noticed that the .....the CELEBRITY CEO's........wanna-be........world dictators.....(in my opinion)....are doing their annual meeting in DAVOS. A massive collection of social climbers, hangers-on, Idiots, Morons, minor celebrities, etc, etc.....and all their massive numbers of Minions and entourage. Of course many in the financial media are usually right there with them.....to be able to bask in their glow and rub elbows. What a bunch of......FOOLS. These people are......ABSOLUTELY.....out of touch with the little people.....and....us regular retail investors. Davos 2025 Live updates: CEOs issue stark warnings on Europe’s future and the new Trump era, as WEF gathers steam https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/wef-live-blog-whats-going-on-in-davos-on-tuesday-jan-21-2025.html
In reality....the markets are on their own today....NOTHING.....going on. The media will probably be distracted all week.....so....the markets will just float along. I will take it....fine with me.
To talk for a moment about.....actual....business on a day when no one else is: JPMorgan Strategists See US Profits Outshining Europe This Season https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategists-see-us-profits-092654520.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Profit growth at US firms is likely to beat that of their European peers by a wide margin this earnings season, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists predict. It’s a case of the bar being set much lower for S&P 500 companies, according to strategist Mislav Matejka. Analysts reduced their projections “meaningfully” for the US benchmark going into the season, despite the economy showing resilient growth, he said. Meanwhile, expectations in Europe for cyclical and defensive shares were set at a “more punchy” level, and could be tougher for firms to meet, the strategist said. “This puts Europe more at risk, especially when comparing the pace of activity momentum,” Matejka wrote in a note. It’s more bad news for European stocks, after one of the worst years for the region’s equities relative to the US. The Stoxx 600 Index underperformed the S&P 500 by over 17 percentage points in local currency terms last year, its second-worst relative showing since the benchmark was created in 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Robust US economic growth and soaring appetite for a clutch of tech heavyweights drove the divergence. With Donald Trump set to be sworn in on Monday as the 47th US president, investors are struggling to predict what his America-first policies and proposals for sweeping global tariffs will mean for stocks in 2025. Matejka — whose deeply bearish view on European stocks last year nonetheless didn’t pan out — said the median US analyst estimate calls for 3% growth in fourth-quarter earnings versus a year earlier. In Europe, the median forecast signals a 5% and 9% increase for cyclicals and defensives, respectively, he said. Profit Snapshot Early results have brought some high-profile beats and misses in both regions. Shares of big US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. all gained following better-than-expected reports, while drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. tumbled after an underwhelming revenue forecast. Earnings growth is currently at a better-than-expected level of 7.7%, with companies accounting for almost one-tenth of the S&P’s market cap having so far reported, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Europe has seen disappointments from the likes of BP Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc. At the same time, Swiss luxury giant Richemont SA hit a record high after reporting stellar quarterly sales. JPMorgan’s Matejka said a “challenging” outlook for stocks exposed to China’s uneven recovery will keep European earnings lagging the US throughout 2025. His counterpart at Citigroup Inc., Scott Chronert, also expects a “larger than average” profit beat from S&P 500 firms for the fourth quarter." MY COMMENT No need for me to invest outside the USA. ALL my stocks do massive business around the entire world.....so....by owning the greatest American companies I am a big.....International investor. Yes....earnings are coming in very nicely......and....being generally IGNORED by the media. As to this......."It’s a case of the bar being set much lower for S&P 500 companies"....not really. It is actually a case of the analysts and economists and other so call experts being TOTALLY WRONG once again. These MORONS did not set the expectations low on purpose......those predictions were their REAL expectations. BUT.....as usual they will not get their PERVERSE wish for earnings failure.....they will be WRONG....again..... as usual.
Here is where we are on earnings.....the first of many earnings updates that will appear in this thread. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_011725.pdf KEY DATA • Earnings to date: With 9% of S&P 500 companies reporting............79%.......have reported a positive EPS surprise and 67%......reported a positive revenue surprise.......BOOM. • Growth: Year over year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 istands at 12.5%. If this continues it will be the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.....BOOM. • Revisions: As of December 31, earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 was estimated at 11.9%. We are currently seeing three sectors reporting higher earnings based on positive EPS surprise.......BOOM.. MY COMMENT Looks like we are going to see yet another HISTORIC round of earnings for thee fourth quarter. I have noticed that for the past year or so the financial media is no longer doing much earnings fear-mongering. They got tired of being totally embarrassed. So now they just....generally......ignore and minimize any coverage of positive earnings.
A random......but important..... example of the above: 3M Stock Surges on Better-Than-Expected Results https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-stock-surges-better-expected-160245726.html
We got a light little dusting of snow here in Central Texas last night. We have about an inch out in the yard. The roads are just fine and we will be out and about for lunch and other business as usual today. The kids will enjoy a day off from school.......and....might be able to build some mini-snowmen. People from the Northern West and North East.....would laugh at how everything closes around here when there is a little dusting of snow. I will probably go out and do some playing tonight.....if the club that I am thinking of is open. What I do hate.....is....the ICE STORMS that we get once in a while.
Meanwhile back in the markets......still looking good.....with the DOW, SP500, and NASDAQ in the GREEN. AND as an added bonus the Ten Year Yield has dropped back into the 4.5% range. The DOW is....kicking some ass....today and this year so far. Up by +3.63% year to date. And....I just heard in the background on Varney that GOOGL is at an......ALL TIME HIGH. ONWARD AND UPWARD.......TO INFINITY AND BEYOND.
We are expecting an inch or 2 of snow here in Charleston this evening. The media here is in their doom and gloom hysterics and worrying my wife about our travel plans on Thursday morning. If we do happen to get that inch or 2, we will make the necessary adjustments to our plans and worst case.... WE SHALL REBUILD!
LOL....I understand very well Husker. It is the same here. Any time there is a cold front going to drop down into our area...... or...... any prediction of even minimal snow......the weather media around here go BALLISTIC. It is always going to be.....SNOW-MAGEDDON. The end of the world as we know it. They have been fear-mongering the Texas grid for the last few days leading up to this little event. We just got back from lunch and driving around......the roads are bare, dry, and deserted. When we ate lunch.....it was us and about 10 cops in the restaurant. We will be back to relatively normal temperatures......50% to 68%.....about tomorrow afternoon. At least we will all be.....survivors of the great blizzard of 2025.......even if we do end up with PTSD.....and end up having to take on an emotional support animal. I am thinking that a turtle would be good for us......since we already have three dogs and four horses.
I think the choice of a turtle mirrors your investment strategy and is a rather fine choice. Slow and steady!
Emotional support Sloth... Get caught up on some sleep and keep me out of trouble! Nice little market day for us. Hopefully we can keep this going to quickly erase that little beginning of the year hiccup. @WXYZ have you seen the Netflix documentary 'Hired Gun'. Its pretty informative and interesting about hired bandmates for many big name acts going on tour.
Yes...it was a nice little market today. Mild but steady most of the day. I had a solid medium gain with only....CMG, MSFT, and AAPL....down today. I also beat the SP500 by 0.29%. A nice NO-DRAMA day for the markets with everyone being focused on politics. It allowed the markets to linger and take a spa-day. Nice gains...but nothing too crazy. I can understand why AAPL was down today with recent Chinese cell phone market data and with a number of well known analyst downgrades......in the past few days. I dont see anything big to explain why MSFT is down today. They are becoming the whipping boy of the big tech world. It used to be GOOGL a year or two ago. But who cares....they are a great iconic company with their current management. They have gone from crap management.....Steve Balmer.......and the lost years......to now, the past decade or more of very good management. As to CMG......I still hold and like the stock. They continue to have a license to mint money. They are my unexciting holding.......nothing spectacular......till suddenly five or ten years later you look at the past returns and realize it was a great company to own. That is where I am with CMG....committed for the long term. Great management at this company also. It is my BORING stock. My result with this one depends on which portfolio you are looking at. Some have a nice gain and others a slight loss. Still a......MINI-HOLDING. CMG is now my only MINI-HOLDING. PLTR was in that category,.......but now....... I have enough in the stock to move it up to a legit holding...for the long term. Amazing company.....the more I live with the stock and read about it....the more I am impressed with this company. The key to it all is amazing founder ownership and management. A great management team. It is still a......YOUNG and RISKY....company so I will not bet the farm. But as a basic, lower end holding in my portfolio.......with amazing potential to become a HUGE and ICONIC company....I am very happy with this stock.
I like this little article. I also like the opening content about Silicon Valley bank....remember all that fear-mongering? A Coda on Regional Banks’ ‘Unrealized Losses’ About those Treasury bond portfolios … https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/a-coda-on-regional-banks-unrealized-losses (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Editors’ Note: This article mentions a few individual stocks in the course of discussing a broader theme we wish to illustrate. Please note that MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. Remember March 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank failed and many feared its problems would spread, wiping out America’s regional banks? The panic faded so quickly—and so much has happened since then—that it feels far longer than 22 months ago. But it got an interesting capstone last week, courtesy of a Wall Street Journal writeup of some banks’ earnings results and forecasts. We think it highlights the benefits of the accounting rule tweak that helped end 2007 – 2009’s global financial crisis. Back in early 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was in deep trouble. Not because its loan portfolio was suddenly imploding, but because it had a lot of US Treasury bonds on its books and the vast majority of its deposits were industry-concentrated and uninsured. So as long-term rates rose and bond prices fell, these big depositors got antsy about the bank’s health and liquidity. In need of capital, the bank released plans to sell Treasurys at a loss, which ratcheted up concerns about liquidity, leading to more deposit flight and, ultimately, driving the bank into receivership. Eventually, First Citizens bought its ashes and continued operating the business, but for a time it was unclear whether or when large depositors would get their money back. As another regional bank—New York’s Signature Bank—failed the same weekend, investors and depositors alike grew concerned about a run on regional banks (or, in industry terms, contagion). Analysts worked overtime trying to suss out which banks were at risk of failure, with many pointing to unrealized losses on US Treasury bond portfolios as a metric. But broad meltdown didn’t happen. Giant Swiss bank Credit Suisse failed—a victim of its own, unrelated and very long-running problems—and West Coast lender First Republic collapsed, echoing Silicon Valley Bank’s demise. But these institutions were the exception, not the rule, and life went on for the vast majority of regional banks. Interestingly, US Treasury bonds haven’t exactly had a stonking huge rally since then. This isn’t a case of a temporarily distressed portfolio holding rebounding. Rather, banks were sufficiently diversified and liquid to ride out the storm. Which brings us to the Journal’s reporting Thursday: “Banks reporting fourth-quarter 2024 earnings are expecting a bump to their core banking income from those [US Treasury bond] portfolios. As older, lower-yielding bonds mature, they can be reinvested at today’s far higher yields on both bonds and cash. That can be a boost to net interest income, which is a measure of how much banks earn in yield on cash, securities and loans versus what they pay out on deposits and other funding.”[i] Yes, banks just let their Treasury holdings do what they are designed to do: pay interest until maturity, at which point Uncle Sam repays them and the bank buys new bonds at the going rate. The temporary market-value declines in 2023? Paper “losses.” But because the banks didn’t sell, those losses were just theoretical. Once upon a time, those theoretical losses would have had a nasty effect on banks’ earnings. The 2007 – 2009 global financial crisis was largely a byproduct of an accounting rule, FAS 157, that required banks to mark all assets on their balance sheet at “fair” or market value. This is easy for a liquid security with easily determined pricing, like a stock or a Treasury bond. It is harder for illiquid, complex mortgage-backed securities that rarely trade. So when some financial institutions got in trouble and had to dump these complex securities at fire-sale prices to raise cash in a hurry, every bank that owned something similar had to write that asset’s value down according to that sale price. These mark-to-market “losses” rippled through the Financials sector, creating a vicious cycle of writedowns, fire-sales and failures. The frustrating thing for all involved—and keen observers—was that in the vast majority of cases, banks never intended to sell these assets. The intermittent price movement was meaningless to their long-term plans, which entailed holding to maturity and collecting interest along the way. We have seen, over the years, that this strategy would have worked fine—the Fed, which ended up with Bear Stearns’ supposedly toxic assets, made a lot of money on them. But accounting rules at the time distorted the picture, translating about $200 billion worth of loan losses into nearly $2 trillion of exaggerated, unnecessary writedowns.[ii] A big reason Silicon Valley Bank’s troubles didn’t have the same effect is that, following the crisis and the obligatory enquiries, regulators clarified the rule. Instead of forcing banks to mark all assets to market, it let banks designate assets they don’t intend to sell as “hold to maturity” assets; those they intend to trade, “available for sale.” The latter are, sensibly, marked to market. The former, sensibly, aren’t. Unrealized losses are still disclosed on them—in footnotes. But they are valued at cost on balance sheets. Rate swings don’t affect them. The upshot: Silicon Valley Bank’s labeling change was what sealed its fate—it reclassified Treasurys as available for sale, crystalizing losses and sparking the bank run. But other banks didn’t have to, and the amended rules enabled them to tough it out. At the time, we saw some grousing, just as we did during and after 2007 – 2009.[iii] There has always been a school of thought arguing the mark-to-market value is more accurate than cost, so it is the correct price. But markets are volatile, and we think it is telling that no one really makes this argument when asset prices are above face value. No one thinks mass write-ups would be a great idea! They would see this as artificially inflating capital. And we think they would be right. If a bank doesn’t plan to sell a bond at its higher trading value, but rather just hold on and collect interest until it is repaid in full, then the bank isn’t reaping a gain and shouldn’t report one. Similarly, if the bank doesn’t plan to sell a bond when its trading value is lower and can ride out the temporary declines, then the bank isn’t really taking a loss and therefore needn’t take an exaggerated, pointless paper loss. Mark-to-market is an accurate valuation only if the bank plans to sell. If not, then market value is likely to be meaningless, as this news demonstrates." MY COMMENT AMEN. Lets make sure accounting and other rules make sense in REALITY.
If you are a...."CHART PERSON".....here you go. Way more charts here than I have seen in one place in a long, long time. EXHAUSTING. US Inflation Outlook: Fed's disinflation story holds (for now) https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/01/2617_deutsche.pdf
I am off to a BIG start today. I looked earlier and I had a very nice gain in my stocks to start out the day. Like yesterday I had three stocks down......but mostly different names.....HD, COST, and CMG. The media is still all caught up in the government change over.......thank goodness. We might get a whole week of freedom from media focus on the markets. HALLELUJAH. It is so refreshing when the markets are allowed to simply do their thing without all the micro-analysis.
This is a very good indicator of a normalizing economy......and....moderating inflation. P&G Stopped Hiking Prices and Sales Still Grew Last Quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-stopped-hiking-prices-144230120.html "The results suggest that the era of endless price hikes may be waning. Companies that make consumer package goods have for years counted on price increases to help fuel revenue growth. In P&G’s fiscal year that ended last June, prices were 4% higher compared to the year earlier, when they jumped 9%." As a consumer giant PG is a good indicator for the economy. I like the content in this article and what it is telling us about the medium term future. AND....a very good earnings BEAT for PG. Procter & Gamble Stock Jumps on Sales and Earnings Beat https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7669337a-4f82-3e04-8c55-6224773160dd/procter-gamble-stock-jumps.html
Lots of good earnings news out there today. Earnings season is off to a very good start. AND....for once I think the strong markets we are seeing today are a reflection of the earnings. SHOW ME THE MONEY....
HERE is the markets so far today. Stocks rise on strong earnings, tech gains as S&P 500 nears all-time high https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 nearing an all-time high again, as technology shares such as Oracle and Nvidia rallied on artificial intelligence optimism, while Netflix and Procter & Gamble gained after strong quarterly results. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5%, within half of a percentage point of its intraday record. It also briefly traded above its record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite popped 1.1%, underscoring the outperformance of tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67 points, or 0.2%, boosted by Procter & Gamble’s gain of more than 3% on the back of strong earnings. Netflix shares soared 12% after the company surpassed 300 million paid memberships. It’s fourth-quarter earnings and revenue also topped analyst expectations. The streamer’s results got a boost from hit series “Squid Game” and live sporting events such as the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson boxing match. Oracle shares jumped 5% and Nvidia climbed about 3% as investors continued to pile into the AI trade following an announcement from the new White House. President Donald Trump announced a joint venture dubbed “Stargate” on Tuesday, with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank to invest ″$500 billion, at least” in AI infrastructure within the United States. Oracle rose 7% on Tuesday on the news. “Netflix’s strong earnings, coupled with the largest increase in paid memberships and announced price increases, are propelling the stock price significantly higher today. At the same time, the announcement of a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment through Stargate is boosting tech stocks higher,” said Leslie Thompson, chief investment officer at Spectrum Wealth Management. “Animal spirits seem to be in play as the first 100 days of the new administration commence.” Stocks were higher even after President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s considering a 10% tariff on China beginning as soon as Feb. 1. That comes after he mulled levies on Canada and Mexico earlier in the week. Though tariffs have been considered an overhang on markets, stocks have rallied this year on optimism about the new business-friendly administration following a December pullback. The S&P 500 was down 2.5% in December, but is already up 3% in 2025. “Investors are applauding the recent round of market-friendly executive orders from the new Trump administration, particularly when it comes to deregulation and energy,” said John Creekmur, chief investment officer at Creekmur Wealth Advisors. But, “there is also the fear of tariffs lurking in the background.” MY COMMENT After a dismal last week of 2024 and a poor start to 2025....we are starting to BOOM right now. This year might end up being a very FUN year for investors. For a short time at least.....it is nice to bask in the glow of some positivity and a bright future. If we can keep this going for a while....we have good potential for a nice EXPLOSIVE market move up. We ENDURED the last 3-4 weeks of...negative BS.....and now we are seeing what a little bit of positivity can do for the markets.
A perfect day today to just sit back and do NOTHING. Enjoy BASKING in the warm glow of a market boom. On a day like this you reward yourself by celebrating your success as an investor. This is your reward for having to ENDURE all the rest of the "stuff" that we have to hold through as long term investors. Go ahead....look at your account and visualize your great future. ALSO.....take into account how well we are doing in spite of all the MASSIVE NEGATIVITY and FEAR-MONGERING we have to constantly endure. Yes.....the gains DO make up for all the pain that we have to endure.
