The Long Term Investor

I just noticed that the .....the CELEBRITY CEO's........wanna-be........world dictators.....(in my opinion)....are doing their annual meeting in DAVOS. A massive collection of social climbers, hangers-on, Idiots, Morons, minor celebrities, etc, etc.....and all their massive numbers of Minions and entourage.

Of course many in the financial media are usually right there with them.....to be able to bask in their glow and rub elbows. What a bunch of......FOOLS.

These people are......ABSOLUTELY.....out of touch with the little people.....and....us regular retail investors.

Davos 2025 Live updates: CEOs issue stark warnings on Europe’s future and the new Trump era, as WEF gathers steam

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/wef-live-blog-whats-going-on-in-davos-on-tuesday-jan-21-2025.html

 

In reality....the markets are on their own today....NOTHING.....going on. The media will probably be distracted all week.....so....the markets will just float along.

I will take it....fine with me.

 

To talk for a moment about.....actual....business on a day when no one else is:

JPMorgan Strategists See US Profits Outshining Europe This Season

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategists-see-us-profits-092654520.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- Profit growth at US firms is likely to beat that of their European peers by a wide margin this earnings season, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists predict.

It’s a case of the bar being set much lower for S&P 500 companies, according to strategist Mislav Matejka. Analysts reduced their projections “meaningfully” for the US benchmark going into the season, despite the economy showing resilient growth, he said.

Meanwhile, expectations in Europe for cyclical and defensive shares were set at a “more punchy” level, and could be tougher for firms to meet, the strategist said.

“This puts Europe more at risk, especially when comparing the pace of activity momentum,” Matejka wrote in a note.

It’s more bad news for European stocks, after one of the worst years for the region’s equities relative to the US.

The Stoxx 600 Index underperformed the S&P 500 by over 17 percentage points in local currency terms last year, its second-worst relative showing since the benchmark was created in 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Robust US economic growth and soaring appetite for a clutch of tech heavyweights drove the divergence.

With Donald Trump set to be sworn in on Monday as the 47th US president, investors are struggling to predict what his America-first policies and proposals for sweeping global tariffs will mean for stocks in 2025.

Matejka — whose deeply bearish view on European stocks last year nonetheless didn’t pan out — said the median US analyst estimate calls for 3% growth in fourth-quarter earnings versus a year earlier. In Europe, the median forecast signals a 5% and 9% increase for cyclicals and defensives, respectively, he said.

Profit Snapshot

Early results have brought some high-profile beats and misses in both regions.

Shares of big US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. all gained following better-than-expected reports, while drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. tumbled after an underwhelming revenue forecast.

Earnings growth is currently at a better-than-expected level of 7.7%, with companies accounting for almost one-tenth of the S&P’s market cap having so far reported, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Europe has seen disappointments from the likes of BP Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc. At the same time, Swiss luxury giant Richemont SA hit a record high after reporting stellar quarterly sales.

JPMorgan’s Matejka said a “challenging” outlook for stocks exposed to China’s uneven recovery will keep European earnings lagging the US throughout 2025.

His counterpart at Citigroup Inc., Scott Chronert, also expects a “larger than average” profit beat from S&P 500 firms for the fourth quarter."

MY COMMENT

No need for me to invest outside the USA. ALL my stocks do massive business around the entire world.....so....by owning the greatest American companies I am a big.....International investor.

Yes....earnings are coming in very nicely......and....being generally IGNORED by the media.

As to this......."It’s a case of the bar being set much lower for S&P 500 companies"....not really.

It is actually a case of the analysts and economists and other so call experts being TOTALLY WRONG once again. These MORONS did not set the expectations low on purpose......those predictions were their REAL expectations. BUT.....as usual they will not get their PERVERSE wish for earnings failure.....they will be WRONG....again..... as usual.

 

Here is where we are on earnings.....the first of many earnings updates that will appear in this thread.

EARNINGS INSIGHT

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_011725.pdf

KEY DATA

• Earnings to date: With 9% of S&P 500 companies reporting............79%.......have reported a positive EPS surprise and 67%......reported a positive revenue surprise.......BOOM.

• Growth: Year over year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 istands at 12.5%. If this continues it will be the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.....BOOM.

• Revisions: As of December 31, earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 was estimated at 11.9%. We are currently seeing three sectors reporting higher earnings based on positive EPS surprise.......BOOM..

MY COMMENT

Looks like we are going to see yet another HISTORIC round of earnings for thee fourth quarter.

I have noticed that for the past year or so the financial media is no longer doing much earnings fear-mongering. They got tired of being totally embarrassed. So now they just....generally......ignore and minimize any coverage of positive earnings.

 

A random......but important..... example of the above:

3M Stock Surges on Better-Than-Expected Results

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-stock-surges-better-expected-160245726.html

 

We got a light little dusting of snow here in Central Texas last night. We have about an inch out in the yard. The roads are just fine and we will be out and about for lunch and other business as usual today.

The kids will enjoy a day off from school.......and....might be able to build some mini-snowmen.

People from the Northern West and North East.....would laugh at how everything closes around here when there is a little dusting of snow.

I will probably go out and do some playing tonight.....if the club that I am thinking of is open.

What I do hate.....is....the ICE STORMS that we get once in a while.

 

Meanwhile back in the markets......still looking good.....with the DOW, SP500, and NASDAQ in the GREEN.

AND as an added bonus the Ten Year Yield has dropped back into the 4.5% range.

The DOW is....kicking some ass....today and this year so far. Up by +3.63% year to date.

And....I just heard in the background on Varney that GOOGL is at an......ALL TIME HIGH.

ONWARD AND UPWARD.......TO INFINITY AND BEYOND.

 

LOL....I understand very well Husker.

It is the same here. Any time there is a cold front going to drop down into our area...... or...... any prediction of even minimal snow......the weather media around here go BALLISTIC. It is always going to be.....SNOW-MAGEDDON. The end of the world as we know it.

They have been fear-mongering the Texas grid for the last few days leading up to this little event.

We just got back from lunch and driving around......the roads are bare, dry, and deserted. When we ate lunch.....it was us and about 10 cops in the restaurant.

We will be back to relatively normal temperatures......50% to 68%.....about tomorrow afternoon.

At least we will all be.....survivors of the great blizzard of 2025.......even if we do end up with PTSD.....and end up having to take on an emotional support animal. I am thinking that a turtle would be good for us......since we already have three dogs and four horses.

 

Yes...it was a nice little market today. Mild but steady most of the day. I had a solid medium gain with only....CMG, MSFT, and AAPL....down today. I also beat the SP500 by 0.29%. A nice NO-DRAMA day for the markets with everyone being focused on politics. It allowed the markets to linger and take a spa-day. Nice gains...but nothing too crazy.

I can understand why AAPL was down today with recent Chinese cell phone market data and with a number of well known analyst downgrades......in the past few days.

I dont see anything big to explain why MSFT is down today. They are becoming the whipping boy of the big tech world. It used to be GOOGL a year or two ago. But who cares....they are a great iconic company with their current management. They have gone from crap management.....Steve Balmer.......and the lost years......to now, the past decade or more of very good management.

As to CMG......I still hold and like the stock. They continue to have a license to mint money. They are my unexciting holding.......nothing spectacular......till suddenly five or ten years later you look at the past returns and realize it was a great company to own. That is where I am with CMG....committed for the long term. Great management at this company also. It is my BORING stock. My result with this one depends on which portfolio you are looking at. Some have a nice gain and others a slight loss. Still a......MINI-HOLDING.

CMG is now my only MINI-HOLDING. PLTR was in that category,.......but now....... I have enough in the stock to move it up to a legit holding...for the long term. Amazing company.....the more I live with the stock and read about it....the more I am impressed with this company. The key to it all is amazing founder ownership and management. A great management team. It is still a......YOUNG and RISKY....company so I will not bet the farm. But as a basic, lower end holding in my portfolio.......with amazing potential to become a HUGE and ICONIC company....I am very happy with this stock.