I have been watching the NASDAQ weaken on the ticker. Now having checked my account I see that three of my stocks have now gone RED. BUMMER.....someone do something.
The PPI report today. Producer prices report points to softer Fed inflation measure than feared https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/13/ppi-january-2025-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The producer price index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3%. Stock market futures moved slightly higher following the release while Treasury yields fell. Wall Street strategists cited details of the report that suggested a slightly more benign inflation picture. A gauge of wholesale prices rose more than expected in January, though some details of the report indicated that pipeline inflation pressures are easing. The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services, increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI was up 0.3%, in line with the forecast. Stock market futures moved higher following the release while Treasury yields were sharply lower, despite the higher-than-expected headline number. Wall Street strategists cited details of the report that suggested a slightly more benign inflation picture. In particular, some costs related to health care showed easing — physician care, for instance, fell 0.5%. Also, domestic airfares declined by 0.3% and brokerage services prices were off 2.2%. Over the past year, the all-items PPI increased 3.5%, well ahead of the central bank’s objective. Futures pricing indicates the market now does not expect the Fed to lower its benchmark interest rate again until October. While the producer and consumer price index releases are widely cited inflation gauges, they are not the principal ones the Fed uses. Rather, the central bank focuses on the personal consumption expenditures prices index, which the Commerce Department will release later in February. The PPI and CPI releases do feed into that measure. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday noted the Fed’s greater focus on the PCE measure, while telling the House Financial Services Committee that “we’re not quite there yet” on inflation though he cited “great progress” made so far. Putting the data together, the core PCE measure likely will show a 0.22% increase, down from 0.45% in December, according to Citigroup estimates. That would push the annual inflation rate down to 2.5%, the firm said. The PPI release comes the day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3% and well out of reach of the Fed’s 2% long-run goal. Together, the reports are pushing back expectations for a rate cut until the second half of the year, though inflation data can be volatile and the outlook could change depending on what subsequent months show. “Wholesale price growth came in slightly higher than expected for January, and the read for December was adjusted upward,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance site NerdWallet. “In other words, inflation at the producer level remains high, and one concern is that this inflation could ultimately be passed along to consumers.” Revisions to the December numbers also complicated the inflation picture, with the gain now put at 0.5%, compared with the 0.2% increase previously reported. In January, producer prices for services increased 0.3% while goods rose 0.6%. Services prices were led by a 5.7% jump in the traveler accommodation services category, which the BLS said accounted for more than one-third of the gain. On the goods side, a 10.4% surge in diesel fuel costs was a significant factor. The PPI data also reflected the massive jump in egg prices as farmers destroy millions of chickens to prevent the spread of avian flu. Eggs for fresh use exploded 44% higher on the month and were up 186.4% from a year ago. In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial filings for unemployment claims changed little for the week ended Feb. 8. Claims totaled 213,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior period and close to the 215,000 estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, fell to 1.85 million, down 36,000." MY COMMENT That is a pretty big REVISION for December.....from 0.2% increase to 0.5% increase. I dont care about the revision in terms of inflation. I care about this revision in terms of dishonesty in government and corrupt, distorted, inaccurate data being released. In the modern computer age there is NO EXCUSE for incorrect data to this degree.
One hour to go and I am....sitting pretty. Nine of ten stocks in the green. My single RED stock....PLTR....and it is close enough that it might even turn green by the close. A nice BIG gain today if I can hang onto it for the last hour. PLUS....Now that we are beyond the economic and FED BS....we have a good PROBABILITY for a good close to the week tomorrow.
You're right that if both people have a 401k then the numbers will look alot better but I highly doubt that they are anywhere near double. There have to be plenty of instances where one person in the relationship makes/saves substantially less. Also with social security added in you can live pretty comfortable in a decent area for pretty cheap if your house and cars are paid for. Most people don't realize how much you have to pay to go to work! What I find interesting is that if a couple already has $200k in their 401k, they could stop adding and still have over a million if they have it in the S&P500 and it continues it's average return. I don't believe that generation is as financially doomed as everyone makes them out to be, I do think they are much more vocal with their woes. I bet if they asked their parents what they paid for their house back in the day at what interest rate and what their salary was that if they put it in an inflation calculator they would be comparable to what they would have to pay today. The one thing I see people getting screwed on currently education. College costs are completely out of control. I started a 529 for my son to front load it and take advantage of time in the market. Taking care of the next generation is worth some small personal sacrifice.
Thank you PLTR for making me look good....the stock is now GREEN (see post above). The BULL MARKET is alive and well.....and should be the market BIAS for at least another 1.5 to 2.5 years minimum. As to PLTR and the near future....the next 1-3 years. As most know they get much of their business from the US government as the go-to AI supplier for the them. Now we are seeing stories like the government retirement services doing their work by pen and paper in an old mine shaft. This is good news for PLTR...there is MASSIVE amounts of work in the USA government than will benefit from AI and the use of computers......and....much of that work will involve PLTR.
As to PLTR....YES.....close to yet another all time high at....$117.81. NO GUTS NO GLORY.......has certainly worked out well with this company.
A BIG FAT day for me today. Ten stocks up today...all of them. Even PLTR decided to join the fun in the last hour of the day. Plus....I also beat the SP500 by.....0.80% today. This sort of day has got to carry over to tomorrow to close out the week....right? Well perhaps. At least the market BIAS continues to be very much to the positive.
Not a bad open....a little random....but, whatever. PLTR....currently at a new all time high. When will the fun end? Stocks are little changed as Wall Street takes a pause after a strong week https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were little changed on Friday in a pause from a strong performance this week, as investors weighed the latest on the global trade and inflation fronts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 15 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Compositegained 0.1% each. The major averages are on pace to end the week higher. The S&P 500 and the Dow are on pace for respective gains of 1.5% and 0.9%. The Nasdaq is 2.2% higher this week. On Thursday, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on laying out a plan to impose levies on goods from countries with duties on U.S. products. The lack of immediate tariffs boosted sentiment, which saw equity markets move higher as investors also piled into technology stocks. Traders were also seemingly relieved after January’s producer price index, as well as the consumer price index report released earlier this week, that appeared to suggest a softer reading for the personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE price index, which is due later this month, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. While markets managed to end the previous trading session higher Siebert chief investment officer Mark Malek believes that this relief and positive momentum over a pause in reciprocal tariffs may be short-lived. “The market will have pressure on Friday — there was not enough clear stimulus for the market to trade this way … nothing that would justify this late-day move. I listened very carefully to the president speaking, and there was nothing in there that stood out to me as great for the market,” he said. “Friday is going to be one of those days where people are going to try to figure out what this all means.” MY COMMENT I dont care to obsessively over-analyze the markets. Or think I can micro-manage investing. Just give me the big picture that is mostly earnings and fundamentals.
This is good news for inflation and the FED. Retail sales slumped 0.9% in January, down much more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/14/ret...in-january-down-much-more-than-expected-.html "Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month, in which prices rose 0.5%."
As to the above......this is why the FED's inflation target of 2% is CRAZY. Historic normal annual inflation would be 3-4%. At 2% there is ZERO leeway for the economy......any slight slip and we are borderline deflation or growth stopping.
Things never change. Stock pickers are on a record run with investors. Don’t be fooled, says index fund guru https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/14/why...t-ever-outperform-market-index-long-term.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Active ETFs have seen record inflows, but what’s a good business for Wall Street still can’t deliver long-term outperformance to investors, according to Charley Ellis, who helped pioneer market indexing. The vast majority of flows still go to index funds due to the lower fees on portfolios like ETFs that appeal to average investors, but it’s become a bloated industry also, with too many niche and “unhealthy” ideas, he told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on “ETF Edge.” Stock picking looks easy, but the numbers prove it isn’t. S&P Global reports that after one year, 73% of active managers underperform their benchmarks. After five years, 95.5% of active managers miss the mark. After 15 years, nobody outperforms. That is not going to change, according to Charles Ellis, a veteran investment industry figure and believer in the power of indexing. In fact, the growth of passive funds has led some in the industry to worry it will kill the active management business, a charge Ellis says doesn’t hold true, but it will remain true that active managers struggle to find an edge in the market. “The number of people that get hired into active management keeps rising and we’re way overloaded with talent in that area and we’ll stay there as long as it is great fun, with high pay and you can also make a small fortune,” Ellis said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. ETF industry expert Dave Nadig agreed that active managers aren’t going away. “We just had the best year for active management inflows that we’d ever had,” he said on “ETF Edge.” Active ETFs continued their hot streak bringing in investor money in January. Still, good times for active fund flows can’t compare to the index fund and ETF flows behemoth. “It isn’t that anybody thinks active management shouldn’t exist, but the vast majority of flows are coming from fairly unsophisticated individual investors going into big indexes and big target data funds,” Nadig added. Ellis, who first made his mark in finance by founding the consulting group Greenwich Associates, and was later a board member at low-cost index fund giant The Vanguard Group, is worried about the ETF space as it grows. “What you have to be really positive about is the increase of ETFs that are available and a steady reduction in the fees that are being charged,” he told CNBC’s Bob Pisani. But Ellis, whose new book is called “Rethinking Investing – A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing” said success has bred some new investor dangers. “You must worry about the ETFs that are being produced much more for the salesperson than the buyer and how they’re too specialized and too narrow,” he said. Ellis is especially concerned about leveraged ETFs “so that you get explosive upside but also explosive downside.” Ellis believes investors have to look for ETFs “that are best for you, and what you want to accomplish.” Nadig made the point that technology has become the great equalizer in the markets: everyone has it, meaning getting an edge on other traders who often have the same or similar technology, is difficult. “Active management is possible, you’ll just never find it in advance,” he said. “The ironic reason that active managers underperform is that they’re all so good at what they’re trying to do, they cancel each other out,” Ellis said. Because of the computing power and quantitative models that are now so accessible to stock pickers, “it’s like playing poker with all the cards face up,” he added." MY COMMENT Yes....we have seen an explosion of NICHE ETF's. AND....many of them are high risk or even simply gambling products. So just because something says it is a passive ETF....does not mean it is the same as a simple SP500 Index or other broad based Index. For my money if I want an ETF.....I simply want a broad based Index ETF like the SP500. Those are the type that the active traders can not beat.
This is a potential interesting deal. TSMC Considers Running Intel’s US Factories After Trump Team Request https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-considers-running-intel-us-190303431.html
WOW...I had a nice, solid, mid-size gain today from only three sticks....PLTR, NVDA, and AAPL. My other seven stocks were all red. But the three did their job and made me some really good money today. I also beat the SP500 today by...0.93%.
Here is the week that was. DOW year to date +5.08% DOW five days +0.34% SP500 year to date +4.19% SP500 five days +1.13% NASDAQ 100 year to date +5.47% NASDAQ 100 five days +2.08% NASDAQ year to date +3.87% NASDAQ five days +1.82% RUSSELL year to date +2.16% RUSSELL five days (-0.41%) As for me a BANNER WEEK.....I got a good move up in my year to date for my entire portfolio. It is now at....+5.59%. Last week at the Friday close my entire portfolio was at, year to date.......+2.30%. I hope I can keep this up for a while and build up some cushion for whenever the next drop hits.
Well when it rains it pours. I got a message today from another group that wants to get together and audition/rehearse. This will give me two active projects. Hopefully one of them will stick. I will string both of them along for as long as I can. And if both turn into playing shows....... I will try to do both for as long as possible. That will give me time to see which has the best potential for survival and which one I like the most. I have played with two different groups at times in the past.....so it is not a new thing for me.
Well....we are approaching the big day....with NVDA earnings about 1.5 weeks away. I am expecting a good report but nothing earth shattering. After all this report is for the last quarter of 2024.....October, November, December. During that time the company was ramping up production of Blackwell......but....was not yet in the middle of massive shipping of this product. I agree with many articles that I have seen that it will be the second quarter of 2025 and beyond where we will see the impact of Blackwell on NVDA earnings. So...dont do anything too crazy........like bet your entire net worth on this one stock before earnings.
The latest on the current earnings reporting: EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_021425.pdf We are NOW about 3/4 done with earnings and they have been STELLAR.
A few little excerpts from a newsletter I receive from time to time. Some thoughts to keep us grounded. "When it comes to investing, the words "future" and "uncertainty" are synonymous. In good times we ignore uncertainty. In volatile times we fixate on it." "According to the latest data from research firm Cerulli Associates, 70% of new advisors drop out in the first five years, with most of these leaving within three years. Although 93% of new advisors believe training on financial planning topics is important to their success, only 55% said their firms provide sufficient training. So, from sea to shining sea we have newly minted financial advisors who have been taught how to sell financial products but who know little about stock market history, asset allocation strategies, or financial planning who are providing investment advice to retiring baby boomers." "I’ve heard predictions about the imminent end of America my whole adult life. They've all been wrong, which doesn't seem to dissuade today's Chicken Littles. It amazes me how newsletters and social media bloggers, who proclaim nothing but doom and gloom, manage to maintain an audience and subscription income despite having always been wrong." "We tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the extent of coverage in the media. Psychologists refer to this as availability bias, and it’s a big problem in investing. When making important or complex decisions, we don’t consider all alternatives. Instead, we tend to focus our attention on those that come to mind first. Even though we all want to buy low and sell high, we are less inclined to invest in stocks after reading large font headlines during a market decline. Active investors can’t resist stocks with recent exceptional performance, and nothing generates media hype more than a price chart that looks like the left side of the Eiffel Tower. Unfortunately, this is usually a precursor to the right side of the chart looking like the right side of the Eiffel Tower. What we pay attention to tends to drive the decisions we make, and investors are continually exposed to meaningless noise masquerading as meaningful information." "Financial journalism’s daily mission is to explain why the stock market went up or down. But the global economy is too complex to be broken down into sound bites or 500-word articles. If the market rose today, a piece of good news will be noted. If it fell, some bad news will be noted. No proof will be provided for the supposed cause/effect relationship. The financial media won't admit that the market often rises and falls for no apparent reason because if they did, their audience would tune out and their advertisers would get antsy."
