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The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun New Member

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    Please don’t ruin a great thread by injecting only politics. Much can be said good and bad regarding our current President. There are very valid reasons why he is in office, some don’t respect those reasons and are unable to maintain a civil discussion.

    I think your decision to invest in what ARKK does is good. Personally myself, I am looking to make ARKK my next investment. Up what 140% ytd? Well managed ETF, they bought low again on Tesla right after the split. Love what Cathie Woods and co. is doing!
     
  2. Jwalker

    Jwalker Member

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    I think it’s time to go back to the markets. I wanted to lay out my current portfolio for anyone who cares (unlikely). I’m holding about 70% of my securities through my 401k in:
    1. SSSYX - 50%
    2. RGAGX - 50%
    I stopped putting any contributions in to the vanguard bond etf.

    The remainder of my investments are in 2 Roth IRA’s equally divided between me and my wife. Our holdings are:
    1. AAPL (I got in about the time a few of you did a short term play)
    2. ATVI (I got in about $83 so I’ve mostly been down since I bought, but I believe them to be a good long-term company)
    3. COST (love this company)
    4. AT&T (only bought a share each because I had just enough to buy something left over with the cash I contributed)
    5. SPY
    6. SDY

    I know I am not diversified enough in my individual stock picks. Just a little challenging to diversify when Amazon costs $3000 a share. I suppose I could liquidate and put it all in SPY.

    Maybe I am naive, but is it possible the the election has largely been priced in at this point? I feel cautiously optimistic about the short term.
     
  3. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    My apologies for engaging with others on politics in this board. I got carried away. I understand and fully accept any consequences that may occur as a result of me doing so.
    My sincerest apologies to anyone that found my words to be offensive. I respect anyone and everyone for ALL their political views.
    Onwards and upwards
    Let’s make some money next week!!
     
    WXYZ, StockJock-e and Jwalker like this.
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

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    Its ok, its an election season and this is pretty normal. But the natural progression of political discussions never ends with one side saying "you have raised wonderful points and I am now reconsidering my thoughts on this matter!" :)

    Its best to just try avoid them so we can stick to the topic on hand!
     
    bigbear0083 and zukodany like this.
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Politics are impactful on the markets. I put a some time into various scenarios for market trajectories for multiple election results.

    I even put together a scenario of african americans in paris, in the event kanye wins.

    Value:. "this market outcome seems likely as a result of this political scenario."

    No value:. "my candidate can beat up your candidate."

    We are investors. We are supposed to be objective and pure in our motivation to build wealth from the market and economic conditions. We should be able to detach what we want from what is happening and capitalize on macro factors when possible.

    My scenarios, it turns out, are likely to be complete bunk. The market is driving like a 17 year old armenian on his way to a street crap game.

    Soon, the discussion will to turn to inflation and how to preserve buying power.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......the emotions and current disruption of the country we are seeing has a way of SEEPING into everything.

    So........JWalker.......you have some GREAT funds there. A SP500 Index.......that gives you exposure to ALL the big tech and HOT names including Amazon. Growth Fund Of America.........I would consider this fund if it was not a load fund......it has a GREAT record. I DO think you would be well off to consider Amazon and MSFT and NVDA if you are looking for other stock to invest in. BUT......I have noticed a very strong tendency.......way too strong in my opinion......for younger people to be WAY over invested.......in my opinion......in TECH.

    I am NOT a fan of diversification as it is usually practiced today by investors.......but.....I do believe in some BALANCING of a portfolio so all the eggs are not in one industry basket. That is one reason that I say.....it is ALL about the portfolio as a whole and not just the individual stocks. My GOAL is to make money in ALL sorts of markets. That is why I EMPHASIZE big consumer names in ALL areas including tech.

    Next week it is all about earnings......again. I am amazed how many banks there are. We continue next week with........I am guessing........over 100 small to medium banks reporting.

    BUT........the big dogs next week are:

    IBM
    PG
    NFLX
    PM
    TSLA
    KO
    INTC
    ABT
    CMG

    AND.......many others. There will be MUCH ammunition to drive the markets next week and DROWN OUT the politics. UNFORTUNATELY........I expect that the markets and professionals will NIT PICK the earnings as has been the norm for the past 2-4 years........and.......in spite of generally GREAT earnings they will often move the reporting company's stock lower based on some obscure forward looking statement.
     
    Jwalker and TomB16 like this.
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    For what little value my opinion holds, I don't favor diversification, either. Buy what you know. Buy what you believe in. To add diversification, buy an index.

    Buying something you don't know for the purpose of diversification is gambling.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I find it interesting how similar wxyz and I feel about so many topics, even when we approach them from different philosophies. The underlying idea of buying a good company and holding it long term seems to be the principle core we both share.

    I'm the first to point out, the cash position changes I make based on the wbi are not core and not essential to my investing strategy. One day, when I am less engaged in our portfolio, I will just let it all ride through thick and thin, exactly as wxyz does. When that day comes, I don't expect our performance to decline.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have invested through:

    LBJ.......NIXON......FORD.......CARTER........REGAN........BUSH.........CLINTON.........BUSH........OBAMA.........AND NOW........TRUMP. I also am old enough to remember very well the short KENNEDY administration.

    It was possible to do well......better than most people......by investing for the long term through ALL of these times. My personal view as an investor.....the best investing environment was during those administrations that cut regulations and taxes and got government off the backs of business and people. I will let you GUESS which two of the above did that.

    I try to be a HUNTER/GATHERER type of investor. I take what I am given and run with it. OPPORTUNISM is the name of the game........even....... as a long term investor. BUT......there is a fine line between opportunism and speculation. No matter what I am finding as an investment opportunity under the conditions of the moment.......I ALWAYS maintain a CORE PORTFOLIO that is LONG TERM stocks and funds.

    For example in the early 1980's I was able to lock in some HUGE interest rates........OVER 11%.......on 30 year treasuries. As rates went down.......the value of those bonds skyrocketed. It got the the point over just 4 or 5 years that the VAST majority of my potential 30 year gain......if held to maturity......was already realized. SO.....I sold them all and put that money into the core stock account.

    EMOTION......POLITICS.......HUMAN BEHAVIOR.....are ALL KILLERS for any investor......especially those trying to be long term investors. I am LUCKY.......my basic personality is very CLINICAL and.........some might say.......... very CYNICAL. I prefer the term REALIST. A good investor NEVER allows their emotions and personal "feelings" to interfere with making good decisions. EASY TO SAY.......but.........the number of people that can see the world in this way is extremely small.
     
    #2329 WXYZ, Oct 18, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
    Jwalker likes this.
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......TomB16.....and we are probably very different when it comes to politics. BUT......the basics of what makes a good investor has NOTHING to do with politics.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I hang out in several large social groups. Each group is homogenous, with regard to political philosophy. Wild how that works.

    My boating friends, for example, are all trump voting, shoot liberal, science is bullshit, type people. All of us go way back, some of us 30 years. This group thinks I'm left of Karl Marx and they regularly call me a commie. These are among our closest friends.

    Another group I spend time with are pretty far left, to the last one. They think I'm to the right of Attila the Hun. A couple of them are pretty stand-offish, perhaps due to their perception of my political leanings. We spend a lot of time with this group and have some life long friends here, as well.

    Based on this, I think I'm doing it somewhat correctly. :D
     
    B Russ and rg7803 like this.
  12. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    I.am on the Left Coast. Progressive Liberals all call me Conservative. There are pockets of Republicans. Even "Log Cabin Republicans" . They all think I am a Liberal. The Libertarians mostly define themselves, and every Libertarian differs. Over the years I found that in relation to investments, a lot of people do invest with their heart. Just as an example: a person could chose to invest in "green", there could be good "green" investments. Brookfield has a renewable energy company. It's well managed. It's not all about throwing money into a music label or free concerts to raise funds for Tibet.
     
  13. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    I am sorry for egging you guys on, and stirring the pot.

    Now on to something more pleasant. I want to IPO this pastor. Imagine how much we could make with this guy.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL........that was a real crappy day to open the week. HOPEFULLY.......we will get some momentum from some of the other big earnings names that report this week. OR.......we will just languish.......drifting down this week and next to the election.

    In any event........I was ALL red today.....except......for my one lone green holding....SNOW. I am surprisingly positive in SNOW with a small gain.

    The earnings news of the day was IBM reporting.....but.....nothing exciting there as MOST of what they reported was in line with expectations. Their recent trend of revenue declines continued for the third quarter in a row:

    IBM reports third straight quarter of revenue declines

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/19/ibm-earnings-q3-2020.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • IBM posted a third consecutive quarter of declining revenue.
    • The company is spinning out part of its Global Technology Services division into a new company.
    Shares of IBM fell slightly in extended trading on Monday after the company released third-quarter earnings that were in line with what analysts had expected.

    Here’s how the company did:

    • Earnings: $2.58 per share, adjusted, vs. $2.58 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $17.56 billion, vs. $17.54 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    Revenue declined 2.5%, falling for the third consecutive quarter on an annualized basis, according to a statement. The pattern of declining revenue playing out under new CEO Arvind Krishna was often present during the tenure of his predecessor, Ginni Rometty. The coronavirus pandemic has challenged IBM, among other companies, in part because of exposure to industries such as retail and transportation that the pandemic interrupted.

    Krishna announced a major change on Oct. 8, saying that the managed infrastructure services portion of IBM’s Global Technology Services unit would become a standalone public company. At that time IBM issued preliminary results, saying it expected $2.58 in adjusted earnings per share on $17.6 billion in revenue. During a conference call with analysts on the day of the announcement Krishna called said IBM expects to reach “sustainable mid-single digit revenue growth over the medium term.”

    In the third quarter the Global Technology Services segment, IBM’s largest, contributed $6.46 billion in revenue. That’s down 4% year over year and higher than the FactSet consensus estimate of $6.25 billion.

    Cloud and Cognitive Software, which includes Red Hat, delivered $5.55 billion in revenue, which is up 7% and above the $5.48 billion FactSet consensus.

    Revenue from Global Business Services totaled $3.97 billion, down 5% and more than the $3.90 billion consensus. Systems revenue was $1.26 billion, down 15% and below the $1.55 billion consensus.

    The company’s free cash flow was $1.10 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $2.26 billion and the lowest since the first quarter of 2001, according to FactSet.

    IBM pulled its full-year guidance in April. The company did not issue new guidance in Monday’s earnings statement.

    In the third quarter IBM announced the acquisition of WDG Automation, a Brazilian software company.

    Not withstanding Monday’s after-hours move, IBM shares are down 6% since the start of 2020. The S&P 500 index is up about 6% over the same period.

    Executives will discuss the results with analysts on a conference call starting at 5 p.m. Eastern time.

    MY COMMENT

    I have ABSOLUTELY no interest in this company. Old management......new management.....no difference, STILL a struggling company......especially......in light of the success of the tech sector giants in general. In my opinion a company with no clear leadership or direction. AND.....to top it off.......no one cares about them any more.

    "IBM expects to reach “sustainable mid-single digit revenue growth over the medium term.”

    I dont see much reason to buy a big tech company that is HOPING to reach mid single digit growth over the medium term.
     
  15. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Yup. Today was all red for me as well. The only one that stood tall was my recent ZM acquisition. But I’ll take a slow opening week over a dive at the weeks end any day!
     
  16. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Nokia got up on the right side of the bed this morning. Screenshot_2020-10-19-17-00-26_kindlephoto-83829385.png
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I mentioned SNOW above. Right now I am siting on a short term gain of 7.3%.

    Not really RELEVANT to......anything. I dont normally buy IPO companies. I prefer to wait till they have proven themselves and are dominant......or.......well down the road to dominance. It will be a number of years before I have any idea if this is a good buy or not. Very speculative for a long term investor such as myself.

    AND.......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    MY PG.....reported third quarter earnings. Not too bad......I will take them:

    Procter & Gamble beats estimates as sales jump 9%, raises forecast amid strong demand

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/procter-gamble-pg-earnings-q1-2021.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Procter & Gamble said it fiscal first-quarter sales rose 9% as the pandemic fueled higher demand for its household products.
    • P&G also raised its sales outlook for fiscal 2021 and now expects overall sales growth of 3% to 4%.
    • The company also raised its outlook for its core earnings per share growth.
    Procter & Gamble reported on Tuesday that fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 9%, fueled by demand for its cleaning and laundry products during the coronavirus pandemic.

    On the heels of the strong quarter, P&G raised its sales outlook and expectations for core earnings growth for fiscal 2021.

    Shares of the company rose nearly 2% in premarket trading.

    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: $1.63 vs. $1.42 expected
    • Revenue: $19.32 billion vs. $18.38 billion expected
    The company reported net income of $4.28 billion, or $1.63 per share, up from $3.59 billion, or $1.36 per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting earnings of $1.42 per share.

    Net sales rose 9% to $19.32 billion, topping expectations of $18.38 billion. Organic revenue, which strips out the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign currency, also climbed 9% in the quarter. Higher demand in North America, P&G’s largest market, helped drive sales growth.

    All of P&G’s five business segments reported organic sales growth. CFO and COO Jon Moeller said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the U.S. saw growth of 16% and China reported growth of 12%. He told reporters on a press call that the company has not seen U.S. consumers opting for cheaper brands, despite the impasse in another stimulus package from the federal government.

    Fabric and home care, which includes Tide and Comet cleaning products, saw the highest jump, with organic sales rising 14% in the quarter.

    The home care segment saw organic sales soar 30%, fueled by demand for home cleaning products, like Mr. Clean.

    Health care, which includes Crest toothpaste, Vicks, Pepto-Bismol and Oral-B, also reported double-digit organic sales growth. More consumers bought its digestive and wellness products.

    Its beauty segment saw organic sales growth of 7%. The launch of Safeguard hand soap and hand sanitizer and new products from Olay lifted North American sales for skin and personal care.

    Organic sales for its grooming business rose 6% in the quarter, but its shaving business, which includes Gillette and Venus brands, reported flat organic sales. P&G said women’s razors and blades rose by single digits, but men aren’t shaving as much during the pandemic.

    The company’s baby, health and family care segment reported organic sales growth of 4%. The category includes Pampers diapers, Bounty paper towels and Charmin toilet paper.

    As consumers spend more time watching television and checking social media, P&G is putting more money into advertising. Higher demand for cleaning products also pushed the company to spend more on advertising to put its brands front and center.

    This is not the time to step back,” Moeller said.

    P&G now expects sales growth of 3% to 4% during fiscal 2021, up from its prior forecast of 1% to 3%. Organic revenue is now forecast to rise by 4% to 5%, higher than its previous expectations of 2% to 4%.

    While the early retirement of debt will reduce its net income by 5 to 20 cents a share this fiscal year, core earnings per share will be higher than previously expected. The company is forecasting growth of 5% to 8%, up from its prior forecast of 3% to 7%. After-tax foreign exchange impacts and freight costs are expected to hit earnings by a combined $375 million.

    P&G expects to buy back more stock as well during the fiscal year. The company previously said it would spend $6 billion to $8 billion on buying back shares but now plans on spending $7 billion to $9 billion.

    MY COMMENT

    GREAT earnings for this OLD SCHOOL company. I like the balance that this company gives my portfolio. I am NOT a fan of the stock buybacks.........a total waste of money, company resources, and NOT a positive for shareholders. As a shareholder.......if you want to give me value reinvest the money in assets or products.........or........give it to me. A buy back that benefits executives and other company programs is WORTHLESS to me. Increase the value of my stock with REAL investments in the company or a dividend increase........not.......fad stock buybacks that add NO REAL VALUE.
     
  19. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yes, sir @WXYZ. i, too, hold P&G, but in an index fund, not individually. hey, that was quite a politcal goatfuck you were hosting over here last weekend.
     
  20. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    It looked like so much fun, there should be a thread just for that in Cocktail Lounge.
    -------------------------------//
    Moderator edit: How about no.
     
    #2340 姑爺仔, Oct 20, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 20, 2020

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