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The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes Emmett.......that is why I stay away from politics in this sort of forum. Passion is a good thing......but.......politics is a KILLER for any sort of board that is not oriented toward politics. I appreciate all the posters that were posting and hope they ALL continue to post on here.
     
  2. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    PSX_20201020_131829.jpg
    As my girlfriend tells her friends, I only ride a Harley so that I have an excuse to wear leather pants. I actually wear leather pants because my in-laws get freaked over me wearing leather pants.

    So on the leather pants forum(s), I would not post anything political unless a politician introduces legislation in regards to harvesting wild horses for commercial purposes. Or a law banning the import of chemicals used for tanning leather. Maybe a local elected official declares an entire neighborhood to be a leather cultural zone.

    So I can understand people who believe that politics could sway industry and markets. I get that they think it's related to their investments. I don't want to be an investor in $SWBI if there's going to be a nationwide ban on guns. I don't want to own $SHMP when some animal rights loving politician wages war against the inhumane treatment of shrimp in a closed loop system. The rumor I am starting is that GSA fleet vehicles will all be Prius hybrids leased from Hertz, when President AOC takes office.
     
  3. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    hey, @姑爺仔 , your writing style is very similar to @A55. have you two ever been in the same room at the same time?
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You may be onto something there Emmett.

    TODAY......was a reverse of yesterday. Yesterday I was ALL red except for one stock. Today.....I was ALL green except for one stock. ALSO....got a beat of the SP500 today by .19%.

    TOMORROW.......is a toss-up. Netflix missed their earnings........and........paid the price in after hours trading. On the other hand SNAP kicked ass. SNAP was up 22% after hours. We also appear close to a stimulus deal. SO......who knows where we will start out and end up in the markets tomorrow. At the moment....futures......are strong. Although futures are meaningless......at least to me.
     
  5. roadtonowhere08

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    If the avatar was a Samoan woman instead of Guan Yu, I think he would be outed and an IP trace would be in order :hmm:
     
  6. roadtonowhere08

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    Yup. Got carried away. Broke my own damn rule :duh:
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SNOW.......is UP $17 or 6.4% at the moment. I saw earlier that it was up $15. At that time I looked for some news item to explain the jump in price. I could not find anything that was not old news. I will take it........but........am still curious why the sudden jump in price. Anyone know?
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TODAY.....was one of those days when having a nice.......INTENTIONALLY.......balanced portfolio paid off. The SP500 was down by .22%.......but.......I had a gain and beat the SP500 by .50%.

    I STILL dont know what happened to SNOW today. By the close it was UP by $18.84 per share or 7.48%. My total gain in SNOW as a result is now +17.6%. I am very surprised that this new IPO stock is this far into the positive for me. I have no doubt this is a temporary situation.........and........over the next few years I will bounce back and forth between having a gain and having a loss. It would be a very........RARE.........company to just go straight up after an IPO.
     
  9. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    don't know what happened with snow. my best guess is supply and demand. you need to take the profits now. you got plenty of dough to cover you down the road.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEAH.......I am starting to think I should be a trader. BUT........if I did that, it would......no doubt.....not end well just like the vast majority of traders.

    NO......I cant sell that stock.......it is my ONE long term speculative holding.

    BESIDES........I am trying to become the "STAR" in one of those media stories that you see with the headline......."Guess what the 100 shares that WXYZ bought in Snow is worth now"..........."$2.4Mil dollars". Gives me the same thrill.......and odds.......as playing mega-millions.......without the hassle of buying weekly tickets. AND.....probably will cost less in the long run than the lottery tickets. AND......there is a good probability that the end result will be the same. AND......by "the same".......I am confirming......yes confirming.....that I have NEVER won a lottery. Just getting one number right is a MAJOR VICTORY for me on a lottery ticket.
     
  11. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Ha! My portfolio acted the same way today. My long term portfolio was up and short term suffered. It’s ok I already got used to it.
    I sold my duds as WXYZ recommended and just left a few shares with DIS cus deep inside I still believe in their ip portfolio but otherwise I’m happy with a 40+% increase year to date.
    I don’t think I’ll ever do good as a trader just because I clearly see now how even positions I held for one year performed better than I ever thought they would (PYPL NIKE EBAY TSLA AMZN fall in that category) and my recently acquired TWLO position is still up 20+% even though it’s been plunging for the past two days.
    So it’s all about selling the bad apples and keeping and juicing the strong positions in the process
     
  12. D&D Finance

    D&D Finance New Member

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    Just buy good stocks like Apple and Tesla. Watch this!
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ".......I clearly see now how even positions I held for one year performed better than I ever thought they would (PYPL NIKE EBAY TSLA AMZN fall in that category) and my recently acquired TWLO position is still up 20+% even though it’s been plunging for the past two days.
    So it’s all about selling the bad apples and keeping and juicing the strong positions in the process."

    You are so right.....Zukodany. A BIG return killer for many investors is the inability to sell the dogs. I ALSO......strongly....believe that another important factor is to keep a portfolio down to 10-15 PRIME holdings.

    BUT.......I am sure you are aware......so I will say it for others that may not be as experienced......there WILL DEFINITELY be time periods that are BEAR MARKETS. Those time periods will severely test you as a long term investor. They WILL make you severely doubt yourself and what you are doing. BUT.......I and most of the research have found that trying to time the markets is a losing game. You will always be better off to just hold through those time periods......sometimes a year or two.....with losses on paper, compared to selling and locking REAL losses. There is no way for anyone to anticipate the EXPLOSIVE gains that come when a bear market suddenly ends.
     
    zukodany and TomB16 like this.
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Following 10 stocks is difficult to me and 15 is more than I have ever been able to follow. I mean, properly follow. That includes in depth research of both the company and the market, listening to earning calls, etc.

    My limit used to be higher, when I devoted more time to our portfolio. Even if I could follow more, I would probably be happier following about 6 companies. 4 or 5 of those companies would be core.

    I read the StockTwits feed for NKLA and legions of people are still talking about products and technologies that have been off the table for months. What's more, they are adamant about their position and furiously flame anyone who points out the products have been dropped. These people don't even follow basic news on Nikola. No wonder it's so easy to con people, as Trevor Milton has done.

    This is why, over time, I will build our index position and reduce the number of companies we own.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TESLA......reported earnings today.........and.....basically gave the SP500 the finger. Lets see how long they can hold out on including this company in their index. They are going to destroy their product and make it irrelevant if they are not careful.

    Tesla blows away estimates as deliveries ramp up, targeting 500K by year's end amid coronavirus

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-q3-earnings-2020-model-3-model-y-200910573.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Tesla (TSLA) reported third-quarter sales and profit that topped expectations, as the company doubled down on its guidance to achieve a record 500,000 vehicle deliveries in 2020 in the face of a global economy still weighed by the COVID-19 outbreak.

    Shares soared by over 4% in after-hours trading, adding to a stock run-up of more than 400% for the year to date through Wednesday’s close.

    Here were the main results from Tesla’s earnings report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

    • Q3 Revenue: $8.77 billion vs. $8.26 billion expected
    • Q3 Adjusted earnings per share: 76 cents vs. 55 cents expected
    Ahead of its third-quarter earnings results, Tesla reported earlier this month that it had handed over a record 139,300 vehicles during the three months to September, for an increase of more than 40% over last year. Investors had been homing in to see whether the company still planned to hit a half-million deliveries for the full year.

    Still, in order to meet that goal, the company would need to deliver more than 180,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter in an economy still stricken by the virus. On Wednesday, Tesla reiterated ithat it has the capacity installed to produce and deliver 500,000 vehicles this year.

    “While achieving this goal has become more difficult, delivering half a million vehicles in 2020 remains our target,” the company said. “Achieving this target depends primarily on quarter over quarter increases in Model Y and Shanghai production, as well as further improvements in logistics and delivery efficiency at higher volume levels.”

    The more affordable Model 3, and newer Model Y, comprised the bulk of the deliveries and all of the growth during the third quarter, while higher-priced Model S and X deliveries declined by more than 12% over last year.

    Tesla, however, has been steadily slashing prices especially on its higher-end models in a move that may serve to stoke demand. Last week, it cut the starting price of the Model S twice to $69,420.

    The car maker has also been ramping up production and deliveries out of its Shanghai Gigafactory, which has given the company a valuable hub in the world’s largest market for electric vehicles. And auto sales overall in China have rebounded strongly off the lows of its coronavirus lockdown, with sales climbing nearly 13% for a sixth straight monthly gain in September.

    Tesla doesn’t break out vehicle deliveries by region, but analyst Dan Ives of WedBush pointed to Model 3 demand out of China as a “linchpin to the global Tesla demand picture,” according to a note this week. Tesla said Wednesday that its Model 3 production capacity had increased to 250,000 units per year, from the 150,000 annual run-rate it targeted initially after the factory first came online in December last year.

    The California-based company also broke ground at its second overseas factory in Berlin earlier this year. There, construction “continues to progress rapidly,” the company said in its earnings report, and production is expected to start in 2021.

    Tesla’s third-quarter results also come just weeks following the company’s inaugural “Battery Day” in late September. There, CEO Elon Musk laid out a path for the company to begin manufacturing its own “tabless” batteries to improve the cars’ range and power, and eventually help the company launch a $25,000 vehicle."

    AND

    Tesla reports fifth consecutive quarter of profits

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2020.html

    Key Points
    • Tesla just reported third-quarter results including net income (GAAP) of $331 million on revenue of $8.77 billion.
    • Elon Musk’s electric car maker previously reported deliveries of 139,300 vehicles for the period ending September 30, 2020.

    Elon Musk’s electric car and renewable energy company, Tesla, reported third-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday. The stock rose about 3% after hours as the company beat expectations on EPS and revenue, and reported its fifth consecutive quarter of profit.

    Here is how Tesla performed versus analyst expectations:

    • Earnings per share (adjusted): 76 cents vs 57 cents, per Refinitiv
    • Revenue: $8.77 billion vs $8.36 billion, per Refinitiv
    • Net income (GAAP): $331 million vs $394 million, per Refinitiv
    The company already reported that it delivered 139,300 vehicles during the quarter, a new record for Tesla.

    Automotive revenue comprised $7.6 billion, about 91% of the total for the quarter. Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, rose from 18.7% to 23.7% sequentially. Tesla raked in $397 million in regulatory credits during the quarter nearly doubling the amount it made from these “green” credits year-over-year.


    Tesla beats on top and bottom line in Q3
    Operating expenses jumped 33% from last quarter to $1.25 billion, as Tesla embarked on building new factories in Austin, Texas and Brandenburg, Germany, among other things.

    Musk talked about production timelines for those factories in the company’s earnings call. “I should make a point that for Berlin and Austin, we do expect to start delivering cars from those factories next year but because of the exponential nature of the spool up of manufacturing plants especially one with new technology, we’ll start off very slow at first and then become very large.”

    He cautioned investors that it could take 12 to 24 months even to hit full capacity at these new factories after they begin operations. Tesla previously planned to start production at the Berlin factory in July 2021.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    When asked about the Cybertruck, Musk said he expects some deliveries of the truck -- which resembles a large metal trapezoid -- to begin by the end of 2021 “if things go well.”

    The Cybertruck was unveiled November 21, 2019. Musk has boasted that Tesla received hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for the vehicle shortly after its debut.

    At Tesla’s 2020 annual shareholder meeting and battery day presentation in September, Musk said that vehicle deliveries in 2020 would be up 30% to 40% from last year, implying a range from 477,750 to 514,500 deliveries total.

    CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said on Wednesday’s call that Tesla now aims for 500,000 deliveries in 2020, reiterating the company’s earlier guidance.

    Kirkhorn acknowledged that Tesla’s third-quarter results were helped by better-than-expected regulatory credit sales. “The regulatory credits business was stronger than our expectations and we are tracking to more than double this year compared to last,” he said.

    He also said that in 2021 and 2022, Tesla plans to spend far more than it previously forecast — $2.5 billion especially on new factories and expansion.

    Tesla has raised more than $7 billion in the past 9 months. It completed a five-for-one stock split during the quarter. When a company splits its stock, its total value doesn’t change, but it helps get smaller investors to buy shares. Tesla also completed the sale of $5 billion of its common stock in September through an at-the-market offering.

    Payback on upcoming capital expenditures may take longer than what Tesla achieved on its newest factory investment in Shanghai, the CFO noted.

    MY COMMENT

    Great for US shareholders. NOW.......five quarters of profit......a gut punch to the SP500. It is just a matter of time till shareholders enjoy the kick to the stock price that inclusion in the SP500 will bring. On a personal note......I just heard that a family member recently purchased a Tesla.
     
    B Russ and JaysonW like this.
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE.....is some STUFF that I saw last night about TESLA and the SP500. If they are not included soon........6-12 months.......I believe it will be a definite negative to the reputation of the SP500.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-sp500-non-inclusion-awkward-analyst/

    "It should be noted that even the S&P 500 has competition. And unfortunately for the index, it has been lagging behind one of its key competitors, the Russell 1000. The Russell 1000, which includes Tesla, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past three years. This became even more evident this year, as the Russell 1000 is up 9.1% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7.8%. Tesla, which is up 426% year-to-date and 739% over the past year, has contributed to the Russell 1000’s performance.

    “Over the past three years, the Russell 1000 (+45.6%) has outpaced the S&P 500 (+44.6%). Notably, S&P uses a committee for index changes, introducing some subjectivity. On the other hand, R1000 changes involve little subjectivity: every June 30th Russell family rebalances its indices based on market cap,” the Wells Fargo analyst wrote.

    In a way, Tesla’s non-inclusion into the S&P 500 has reached a point where it is already a bit odd, as the company is currently ranked as the world’s most valuable automaker. At its current market cap, Tesla would stand as the ninth-largest member of the S&P 500, just behind Walmart and ahead of Johnson & Johnson. Speculations are abounding about why the S&P has largely snubbed the EV maker, with critics arguing that it is due to Tesla’s profits being tied to its sale of regulatory credits. The S&P, for its part, has told Barron’s that it considers many factors when deciding which companies would be included in the index."

    MY COMMENT

    I DO agree with the above. I also think the SP500 is AFRAID of this stock and the outsize impact it could have on the index.

    As to income from the sale of regulatory credits.......I dont care where income comes from......income is income. If a company is smart enough to rake in income from such items....well.....that is part of their business model. This sort of income may not be long term and may not always be available....but this is allowing the company to build out their business and at some point the credit income will not be material to Tesla.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I no longer own KO......COKE......but I still somewhat follow the company since I owned this stock as a core holding for many decades. It is nice to see them report good earnings:

    Coca-Cola earnings top estimates, despite 9% decline in revenue

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/coca-cola-ko-earnings-q3-2020.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Coca-Cola topped Wall Street’s estimates for its third-quarter earnings, but the pandemic is weighing on sales of its drinks.
    • Organic sales fell 6% during the quarter, but the company said demand is improving.
    • Coke is in the middle of slimming its portfolio and plans to cut about 50% of its brands to focus on more popular products or those with more growth potential.

    Coca-Cola on Thursday reported that its third-quarter revenue fell 9% as the coronavirus pandemic weighed on demand for fountain soft drinks, Powerade and Dasani.

    But the company topped earnings estimates, sending shares up nearly 2% in morning trading.

    Here’s what the company reported for the quarter ended Sept. 25 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: 55 cents, adjusted, vs. 46 cents expected
    • Revenue: $8.65 billion vs. $8.36 billion expected
    Coke reported third-quarter net income of $1.74 billion, or 40 cents per share, down from $2.59 billion, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier.

    Excluding asset impairments, severance costs related to its restructuring plan and other items, the beverage giant earned 55 cents per share, topping the 46 cents per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.


    [​IMG]
    Net salesdropped9% to $8.65 billion, beating expectations of $8.36 billion. Organic sales fell 6%, and unit case volume, which helps measure demand without the impact of pricing or foreign currency, declined 4%.

    All four of Coke’s drink categories reported declines in unit case volume. Sparkling soft drinks was the least affected, with its volume falling only 1%. Demand for Coke Zero Sugar and trademark Coke drinks lifted the category, although overall it was hurt by the decline in the North American fountain business.

    Juice, dairy and plant-based drinks saw volumes shrink by 6%, hurt by pressure in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Unit case volume of water, enhanced water and sports drinks fell by 11%. Tea and coffee was the hardest hit, with demand dropping 15%, primarily due to the company’s Costa cafes. CEO James Quincey said that Costa cafe traffic is unlikely to recover in the near term.

    The company noted quarter-over-quarter improvements in demand. While the pandemic continues to limit drink purchases at movie theaters, restaurants and office buildings, Coke said at-home demand is still elevated. Away-from-home volume fell by the mid-teens this quarter, an improvement from its nadir of 50%, helped by higher sales at fast-food restaurants and convenience stores.

    Rival PepsiCo reported 3% organic sales growth for its North American beverage unit in its third quarter. Quincey said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that Coke’s away-from-home business is larger than Pepsi’s.

    “We have been winning share in at-home channels, and that’s going to set us up for emerging stronger and being in a stronger position, even though mechanically in the short term, we lose share,” he said.

    Quincey said that the company is prepared for “setbacks” from more restrictive pandemic measures. Some localities in Europe, for example, have entered lockdowns again. He also said that the company had always anticipated that winter in the Northern Hemisphere would be its toughest season.

    As it navigates the crisis, Coke is undergoing a transformation. It is slimming its portfolio, cutting drinks like Tab that haven’t sold well and don’t have much opportunity for growth. The company recorded a $160 million impairment charge this quarter tied to its Odwalla brand, which is also being discontinued. At the end of the process, it plans to slash the number of master brands by 50% to about 200.

    “The pandemic helped us realize we could be bolder in our efforts,” Quincey said.

    Coke did not provide an updated outlook for the remainder of 2020, citing the uncertainty of the impact of the pandemic. The company pulled its forecast in March.
     
  18. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    but, do you agree with regulatory credits in general? this is the government shoving EVs down our throat whether we want them or not, isn't it?
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO.....I do not agree with government giving any credit for a vehicle and many other things. They are certainly pushing the EV vehicles and other so called "green" stuff. No.....I dont like it.........but.........that is a totally separate issue from making money in the markets. I am TOTALLY AMORAL when it comes to investing. I do not support illegality.....but morality and personal feelings have NOTHING to do with investing......for me as a businessman.

    AGAIN.......WTF is going on with SNOW. They were UP about $24 when I looked a while ago. That is 8.7% in one day. They had a similar gain a few days ago. So now.......not that it is big money with my......ONLY......100 shares......I am up by 27.8%.

    I am fascinated by this since I cant find any news at all to explain this JUMP UP in price.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just logged in to my Schwab account to look up news, research, reports, analyst reports and ratings, etc, for SNOW to see what is going on with the big jump in price this week. Again.....nothing to explain the gain. Perhaps the stock has been discovered by the Robinhood day traders and options traders. OR......I think more likely.......the general professionals and other investors realized that the usual drop in price you see with a typical IPO stock was NOT happening and the company was showing strength as a stock. So all those waiting for a dip to buy......gave up and bought this week.
     

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