The Long Term Investor

More "clarity" on April 2nd and tariffs is clearly helping the markets today. REALITY will soon replace the fear-mongering and drama-mongering that has been rampant during this little "correction". In the end we will see that the reality of the tariffs will be NOTHING like the media has been pushing.

In fact.....we are seeing HUGE deals announced by many companies to move or increase manufacturing here in the USA. But....short term the fear and drama pushers dont care about reality or truth. Neither do the political spin doctors and PR mavens.

IGNORE IT ALL.....the simple and effective way to invest is to make all the short term BALONEY irrelevant and IGNORE IT ALL for the long term.

Trump tariffs live updates: Trump reportedly narrows scope of 'liberation day' reciprocal tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...eration-day-reciprocal-tariffs-191201619.html

In reality....all the speculative and panic driving.....opinion based media.....has NO CLUE what is going to happen on April 2. I dont think the government consults with many of them.

This little "correction"....does....show the power of the 24/7.....click happy..... media to drive short term sentiment and concern.

 

I bought my one share of NVDA and one share of PLTR at the open today for the month of April. I decided that I would buy one share of each stock at the start of each month when paying my bills. I jumped the gun.....I normally pay bills for the next month.... on the 28th of the current month.

I decided to buy the shares today.....since I believe we reached a bottom on Friday......yes.....OMG.... GASP......market timing.

I plan to continue to buy one share of each stock at bill paying time each month this year and perhaps into next year. I dont have any big chunk of money to buy anything right now.....so I will do this little trade each month to at least put some minimal money into the markets......especially at these cheap prices.

 

I just looked and I have made money on BOTH the shares above.....so far. YEA.

More importantly every one of my nine stocks is UP early today.

BUT PLEASE.....I am not saying that the volatility or even the "correction" is over. I "fee" like it is but a "feeling" is not a call to market action. I like to play a little game with myself making market calls when I "feel" them. BUT....as a fully invested, all the time, investor it is just for fun.

I have ZERO doubt that we will see more significant down days in the markets and the extreme volatility will continue. In other words....normal market action.....for the modern markets.

 

I am NOT posting anything so far today....because....I dont see anything worth posting. There is NOTHING out there in the financial media today that is substantive, fundamental, economic, or a good lesson in simple long term investing. SO.....at the moment....I stand MUTE.

 

NICE.....the rally continues and so far is building a little bit as the day matures.

 

By the way...those 32 shares of PLTR that I bought in my siblings account on March 21 at the open are now up over......+12%. pretty good for basically....ONE DAY.

Of course later when those shares are negative......I will not say anything......LOL. Typical investor behavior....talk about your wins and gains......and say nothing when you are down.

BUT.....on here it is my commitment to post EVERYTHING.....the....GOOD, the BAD, and the UGLY.

 

I dont care about the politics......anything that increases jobs and investment in the USA is a good thing. I happen to own a Hyundai Hybrid Santa Fe. We have about 42,000 miles on it now and average about 38-40 miles per gallon. So far....it has been an exceptional vehicle with a very luxurious and comfortable interior for the price. It has cut my gas purchases SIGNIFICANTLY.

Hyundai to Invest $20 Billion in US Manufacturing, Reports Say

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyundai-invest-20-billion-us-151358400.html

"Key Takeaways

• South Korean automaker Hyundai reportedly is set to announce a $20 billion manufacturing investment in the U.S. today.
  
• Various reports said the plan will be spelled out by executives in a White House ceremony Monday afternoon with President Trump and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry.
  
• As part of the investment, Hyundai is expected to spend $5 billion on building a steel plant in Louisiana."
  

 

OK.....I am standing by my call last Thursday.....that the correction will end last Friday, March 21, 2025 at the market close.

So far so good with the markets up BIG TIME today.

Here is what happened today for anyone....living under a rock.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq soar on hopes Trump may dial back next tariff wave

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...may-dial-back-next-tariff-wave-200101412.html

 

As for me it was a BIG GAIN today. Every stock up for me. AND....a big beat on the SP500 today by 0.95%.

No doubt I am still in the red.....probably by about (-5%)......but I will take it. Every journey begins with a single step.

Make that a.....continuation....of the investing journey that I started on over 55 years ago.

 

From what I am seeing it looks like the market...at least for CRAZY TECH....bottomed on March 10.

On March 10, 2025 PLTR hit a low of $76.38. It is now at $96.75. A gain of 26.37%.

On March 10, 2025 NVDA hit a low of $106.98. It is now at $121.41. A gain of 13.49%.

BOOM.

 

Just to spit in the face of the market uncertainty......WE DESERVE A BIG FAT POSITIVE WEEK. SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

Looking at the DOW, the SP500 and the NASDAQ it appears that the bottom of this little correction occurred on March 13. For many of my stocks the bottom occurred on March 10. We are now two weeks past that bottom.

SO....I would say that....March 10 to March 13.... is going to "probably" be the hindsight bottom as we move ahead from here.

 

So far a slight red day for me. Actually a MIXED day with four stocks up and five down. BUT....it looks like there is good potential for the markets to move further to the positive as the day progresses. None of the losses that I am seeing look very significant.

 

I actually consider this a very good indication that we have hit bottom and are going to move strongly UP. This is a massively LAGGING indicator......and....pretty worthless when it comes to actual business fundamentals. This basically is a reflection of what the media has been pushing lately.

Americans' expectations for the economy hit their lowest level in 12 years

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amer...their-lowest-level-in-12-years-143308857.html

"The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years. The expectations index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80 — which typically signals recession ahead — for the second straight month."

I believe this is VERY TRUE:

"But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and economists question whether readings in the "soft" survey data like the consumer confidence index will translate to a deterioration in the "hard" economic data like real consumer spending.

"The relationship between survey data and actual economic activity hasn't been very tight," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on March 19. "There have been plenty of times where people are saying very downbeat things about the economy and then going out and buying a new car. But we don't know that that will be the case here. We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data.""

MY COMMENT

Personally I see....at this moment....ZERO risk of a recession.

 

SOFT STUFF....like the above survey would normally not even be news. BUT.....in the current FEAR and DOOM MONGERING environment it is a lead headline today.

GARBAGE.

 

AND....actually other than all the focus on the irrelevant and massively corrupt and massively unreliable "consumer survey data".....I see NOTHING going on today. Certainly nothing that changes anything to the negative.

The markets will continue to be on....tariff watch and wait......till April 2nd........the end of the world if you believe the media.

 

A STRONG close in the last hour.....and especially the last 30 minutes today. A very good indicator for the amrkets going forward when combined with the big rally yesterday. I was down most of the day but ended in the GREEN.

I had a small but nice gain today in my stocks. I also beat the SP500 by.....0.04%.

Moving on to......HUMP DAY.

 

Yeah....now today the excuse is that China "might" tighten up regulation or restrict NVDA chips.....over environmental concerns. Yeah right.

This story is ridiculous on so many levels. Number one NVDA does not need China in the slightest. They can sell every chip they make without China.

Second....many of their chips are not even legal to sell to China and should be. There is no way we should be helping China with their AI.

Third.....why would NVDA want to put their chips into China when the communist government is simply going to rip them off for tech and manufacturing secrets.

Forth......Yeah right.....China is suddenly concerned about the environment......they are not only the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.....but the worlds most brutal environmental polluter.

This story and excuse to suck some money out of NVDA today is simply a short term.....traders....vehicle. A perfect tool for the big AI TRADING PLATFORMS.

 

Speaking of "TOOLS".....yes the financial media is at it again today. There is NOTHING going on today. So.....everyone reverts to fear-mongering the same old stories........the tariffs and the Consumer Survey.

It is hard to imagine story lines that are more meaningless beyond a few days or perhaps a week or two.

I have scanned all my usual sites and investing content.....and....there is NOTHING to talk about or post today.

SO.....I will NOT post anything.....at this moment. I refuse to join in and create clicks for BS content providers.

YES......we had 3-4 days in a row with good positive results in the markets.......but.....the default for the markets right now is VOLATILITY.......so nothing shocking about the markets today. Typical recent short term action.