The Long Term Investor

I had a very TINY loss today. I had five stocks in the green....WMT, HD, AAPL, COST, and GOOGL. I lost out to the SP500 today by .045%.

 

We tried to re-test the lows in the SP500 today. During the day it looked like there was a significant chance to close at a new low for the year. BUT....we bounced big time and ended the day with the SP500 at 5611. the low for the year remains March 10 at 5521.

I did not look at the markets all day until about ten minutes ago....very surprised to see the very good come-back from the open.

I like it when the SP500 is able to bounce back from breaking through a prior low....a very good sign. I believe today was likely the most volatile day of the week. That assumes that what is announced on April 2 and the Rose Garden address to explain it all....... is satisfactory. Good or bad it will be a very NEWS driven day with stocks just being carried along.

 

In spite of all the TEMPEST swirling around the markets......the SP500 is only down by (-4.6%). This is NOT a significant drop.

We are in a time period of BIG NOISE but not much substance to back it up. It is all....media, media, media.

Now depending on what you own it is likely you are donw more than the SP500. Fro example the MAG SEVEN are down by (-16%). With more risk comes more loss.....as usual. BUT is this even remotely justified? I dont think so....there are thee most successful companies in the world.....the most dominant companies in the world. In a RATIONAL and LOGICAL market....these companies would be considered safe havens in a correction or bear market....they ALL operate with a HUGE moat.

Wall Street closes out bruising quarter as outlook remains murky

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ing-quarter-outlook-remains-murky-2025-03-31/

 

I actually consider this a good thing.

Consumer spending during Q1 shrinks for first time since pandemic

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-spending-during-q1-shrinks-155606998.html

"Consumer spending during the first quarter probably shrank for the first time since the pandemic as prices rose and household confidence slumped, according to the Conference Board.
After gaining 4% during Q4, inflation-adjusted consumption during Q1 likely declined at a quarter-over-quarter annual rate of 0.2%, the Conference Board said."

MY COMMENT

First....this is only an estimate NOT hard data. Second.....if this is true it will help to DRIVE prices down. If companies see weakness in demand for their products there will be pressure to lower prices for consumers. This will be good news for consumers.

Third.....lowering prices in the general economy will lessen inflation......not that it is abnormally high......and will encourage the FED to do some rate cuts.

 

As usual lately....we open in the red. AND....as we have often seen.....that is not an indicator of anything. It will take a few hours to get much of a feel for where the markets really are.

BUT.....I see that the Ten Year Treasury yield is down at 4.187%. A very positive general sign for the markets.

So as we sit here right now the......VAST MAJORITY....of the economic news and economic data is positive for the markets....in my view. Yet it is ALL IGNORED in favor of focusing on the media story-line of the moment.......fear-mongering tariffs.

So....I will simply do the same thing.....IGNORE IT ALL.

I am NOT going to waste the skin on my fingers typing posts about all the BS that is driving the markets right now.....it is not productive or meaningful. It just feeds the media beast obsession for clicks.

 

AND....of course.....the good news of all that is going on now.....the greatest most successful companies in the world are ON SALE. I am talking about the top 25 to 50 companies in the SP500......or......the SP500 itself.

 

I am sure for some people....this is a really big story.

Hooters files for bankruptcy

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/31/business/hooters-restaurant-bankruptcy/index.html

 

The markets are captive to media speculation right now. We will hopefully get some CLARITY tomorrow. BUT....as usual....what often seems clear.....will be subject to rampant media nit-picking.

As for today......just another day in paradise.

 

As usual lately....there is NOTHING fundamental or significant going on in business. The vast majority of economic data is very positive for the FED. We are in a classic....sentiment driven correction.....instigated by rampant media opinion and speculation.

As I scan all the various sources that I look at each day.....as usual....I SEE NOTHING.



I refuse to waste time with any of it. So....I will sit MUTE for now.....and do nothing but watch the CIRCUS.

 

As usual I consider this....GOOD NEWS. It will not hurt at all to cut some of the fat out of the economy. LEAN and MEAN will mean better....... and more productive business. In addition the FED should love this sort of data.

US job openings decline in February amid rising economic uncertainty

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-openings-decline-february-141640619.html

Although this data is so unreliable to be just about totally worthless. Of course....the January data was revised upward.

 

For me so far today is is the usual MIXED day that I often see recently. Five stocks down and four stocks up. I am beating the SP500 but am still in the red.

 

I just calculated my year to date results. We are now done with one quarter of the year and I sit at......YTD.....(-10.4%). Considering the MASSIVE gains of the past two years........not very significant.....and.....considering that I own ALL the stocks that have taken a BIG HIT over the past three months.....not bad.

The market time machine.......has transported me back about six to eight months into the past in terms of my account value right now.

WOW.....BIG WOW. Yes.....still riding the wave as usual. I continue to be FULLY invested.....no market timing or trading for me.

 

I see that the NASDAQ is now in the green....the markets are trying to come back. Obviously we are now seeing buyers step in and snapping up bargains.

I think right now would be about the perfect time to buy into the BIG CAP side of the market especially the top ten stocks in the SP500. These stocks have been beaten down by a media mob with baseball bats. It is IMPOSSIBLE to call a market bottom......but so far....the March 10 low in the SP500 is holding.....although it is under constant attack every day. It appears to me that the markets.......especially the big cap side of the markets......is bouncing along the bottom right now.

As a long term investor that does NOT do market timing.....I have no problem buying into a down market....especially if it appears that the risk of drops in the market is another 10% or less. If I can buy GREAT names on sale....within 10% of a market bottom....I will take those odds all day long.

I am NOT saying we are going to go down another 10%....but I see that as the worst case scenario....I dont see it actually happening.

Unfortunately.....I have no free money that is stock market money right now to invest. At least I am automatically reinvesting all dividends and capital gains as they come into my account. Not huge money....but it does add up, and this is what creates compounding over the long term.

 

AND....as I was typing the above....the SP500 has now gone GREEN. WHOOPS.....in the time it took to type that first sentence it is now RED.....barely. AND.....now back to GREEN and making a strong move up.

WHATEVER....it is progress in general from the open to now. We are in a CHURNING market. TYPICAL....short term.....action.

AND......we are only 1.5 hours into the market day.

There is only so much of this "stuff" that I can take......so:

 

WELL....WELL....I am now sitting on a nice medium gain about half way through the day. Only two stocks down right now.....both by a slight amount....HD and PLTR.

It will be interesting to see if the short term traders position themselves near the close today for the.....BIG (not really)....April 2 news tomorrow.

I continue to LIKE how the SP500 is not surrendering to taking out.....the prior market low achieved on March 10, 2025.....especially just before April 2. We are hanging in there....just a little below 2%....from that prior low.

Although dont get me wrong.....I dont see anything CRITICAL even if we do eclipse that prior low some time over the next 2-4 weeks. Just more NORMAL market action when you are thinking short term.

 

We continue to BUILD from the early lows on Monday morning. It is nice to see more tacked onto the SP500...to pull us a bit more away from the market low of March 10, 2025.

The close today makes me think that some people got advance notice of what is going to be announced tomorrow......and/or....now that we are actually up to April 2nd....the BS is going away and we are seeing the ACTUAL markets.

Anyway....I had a very nice GAIN today with only a single stock in the RED.....HD. I also beat the SP500 today ........0.77%.

NICE.

 

OK....I may as well JINX us for Wednesday. I am in the GREEN so far this week. HUMP DAY tomorrow....also....TARIFF day.

BRING IT ON.....NO GUTS NO GLORY.

 

Looking good in the markets right now. GREEN across the board in the big averages. I have been busy all day with minor "house issues....getting all systems up to perfect shape.

I will probably check in near the close and post a few things.

 

For anyone that wonders if I died......NO.....I will be out of touch from April 3 to April 14. I might get a chance to post a little bit....but doubtful.

I will simply let the markets and my portfolio....take care of me and themselves.