Hope you guys went shopping for those sales. This reminds me of those game reward shows where you had 10 minutes to grab whatever you could in the store before time expired. I had some tax return money on the sidelines. Was waiting for things to drop even more after the China news yesterday. Regretting that. Missed out. Where do we go from here?
That is a good description above... I got some shares added before today. I was thinking of adding some again today, but did not get to it before the reversal.
Man, after the last few days and then today, it could be anyone's guess. One might think with the 90 day pause it would ease some of the pressure. But then you think of China....I can't see them being rational either about getting slapped.
Amen TireSmoke. Or as a great investor once said...“I would say, go into the casino, which is what Wall Street is today. Bet on the entire stock market and then get out of the casino and never show yourself there again.”
“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT,” he wrote on his social media platform Truth Social at 9:37 a.m. Less than four hours later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on nearly all his tariffs. Hello, SEC? Anyone home?
I saw a comment on Youtube posted 1 month ago and thought it had merit but did not post it. I had to go back just to show it now: "@bccoregon 1 month ago (edited) 1. Short everything 2. Announce tariffs 3. Close out short positions 4. Buy the dip 5. Call off the tariffs 6. Sell the spike 7. Repeat Is there any reason to believe Trump's entire inner circle isn't doing this?" Prophetic is an understatement. The corruption carried out with such impunity is just so in your face now.
Just to make sure we're remaining accurate, I believe it's a 90 day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, but the 10% tariffs across the board are still on (plus 125% on China). So basically it's the near what we all expected on 4/2 Liberation Day, but more on China. I believe the rumor going into tariff day was 10% tariffs on most of the world.
Yes, I believe you are right on that info. So much information and frequent adjustments, it's hard to keep up.
One of our favorite reports shows inflation creeped down a bit. Of course, the real barometer will be down the road a bit. With the tariff stuff going on for the foreseeable future it will be interesting. We just don't know....what we don't know. United States Inflation Rate 2.39% As of the end of March 2025
Earnings once again come into play soon. Beginning with some of the big banks Friday. Then it ramps up over the following weeks with a lot of the other notable companies.
It appears our reprieve was short lived. Back to reality. Although, this whirlwind we have been on the past week or so has us all wondering what is next or even maybe what isn't.
There are some interesting stories out there about how companies are trying to navigate this environment. Apple airlifts 600 tons of iPhones from India 'to beat' Trump tariffs, sources say NEW DELHI, April 10 (Reuters) - Tech giant Apple chartered cargo flights to ferry 600 tons of iPhones, or as many as 1.5 million, to the United States from India, after it stepped up production there in an effort to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs, sources told Reuters. The details of the push provide an insight into the U.S. smartphone company's private strategy to navigate around the Trump tariffs and build up inventory of its popular iPhones in the United States, one of its biggest markets. Analysts have warned that U.S. prices of iPhones could surge, given Apple's high reliance on imports from China, the main manufacturing hub of the devices, which is subject to Trump's highest tariff rate of 125%. That figure is far in excess of the tariff of 26% on imports from India, but which is now on hold after Trump called a 90-day pause this week that excludes China. Apple "wanted to beat the tariff," said one of the sources familiar with the planning. The company lobbied Indian airport authorities to cut to six hours the time needed to clear customs at the Chennai airport in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, down from 30 hours, the source added. The so-called "green corridor" arrangement at the airport in the Indian manufacturing hub emulated a model Apple uses at some airports in China, the source said. About six cargo jets with a capacity of 100 tons each have flown out since March, one of them this week just as new tariffs kicked in, the source and an Indian government official said. The packaged weight of an iPhone 14 and its charging cable come to about 350 grams (12.35 oz), Reuters measurements show, implying the total cargo of 600 tons comprised about 1.5 million iPhones, after accounting for some packaging weight. Apple and India's aviation ministry did not respond to a request for comment. All the sources sought anonymity as the strategy and discussions were private. Apple sells more than 220 million iPhones a year worldwide, with Counterpoint Research estimating a fifth of total iPhone imports to the United States now come from India, and the rest from China. Trump consistently increased U.S. tariffs on China, to stand at 125% by Wednesday, from 54% earlier. At the 54% tariff rate, the $1,599 cost of the top-end iPhone 16 Pro Max in the United States would have surged to $2,300, calculations based on projections by Rosenblatt Securities show. In India, Apple stepped up air shipments to meet its goal of a 20% increase in usual production at iPhone plants, attained by adding workers, and temporarily extending operations at the biggest Foxconn India factory to Sundays, the source added. Two other direct sources confirmed the Foxconn plant in Chennai now runs on Sundays, which is typically a holiday. The plant turned out 20 million iPhones last year, including the latest iPhone 15 and 16 models. As Apple diversifies its manufacturing beyond China, it has positioned India for a critical role. Foxconn and Tata, its two main suppliers there, have three factories in all, with two more being built. Apple spent about eight months to plan and set up the expedited customs clearance in Chennai, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government asked officials to support Apple, one senior Indian official said. Foxconn shipments from India to the United States surged in value to $770 million in January and $643 million in February, compared to the range of $110 million to $331 million in the prior four months, commercially available customs data shows. More than 85% of the January and February air shipments of Foxconn were offloaded in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. Foxconn did not respond to Reuters' queries.
Trump tariffs will lead to abandoned freight at ports as cash-strapped businesses reject orders Businesses both large and small tell CNBC that the latest round of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, targeting countries all over the world and taking the trade levies up to the highest rates in a century, could result in freight being abandoned at ports as cash-strapped owners and CEOs reject incoming goods that could financially wipe them out. Rick Muskat, president of the family-owned shoe retailer Deer Stags, which imports around two million shoes a year — with about 98% of their men’s and boy’s shoes made in China and sold in Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney, and on Amazon — is among the business owners preparing to take on exponentially increased import duties, but says the financial pain and split of the pain between his firm and retailers will be difficult. His once $50 pair of men’s shoes and $35 little boys’ shoes have already gone up $80 to $65, respectively, after recent trade war moves by the U.S., with Deer Stags set to pay more than a 104% new tariff on Chinese goods being stacked atop previous tariffs. Prior to the tariff increases in 2025, his company was paying a 6% duty on their shoes. “Then the tariffs were raised by 10% two times, bringing my tariffs up to 26%. Then last week Trump put on an additional 34% and now the 50% levied today. All of these tariffs bring my tariff total to 110% on my non-leather shoes. My leather shoes now have a tariff of 120%. How do you budget that?” Muskat said. He estimates that the cost of freight orders subject to the new tariffs will rise from $60,000 to between $600,000 and $1 million. “The cash flow burden is the immediate problem,” he said. “We don’t have the capital to grapple with this. There is only one pile of money and I will pay for this, but that means I’m not paying for something else. We are going to pay the duty because we have no choice.” Muskat said he won’t reject the containers at the port which would force the supplier to take the freight back, but he has told one factory to pause shipping for a week or two, to see how things unfold. Conversations with retailers are ongoing. Other U.S. importers are expected to abandon goods at ports, which can then either go back to the manufacturer or it can be auctioned or destroyed in the U.S. On Wednesday, Trump added another change to the fluid situation, saying some countries other than China would receive a 90-day pause in the implementation of tariffs, but new tariffs on China would rise to 125%. According to one estimate, more than half of the $2 billion in daily import tariffs to be charged by the U.S. are to be on Chinese goods and the tariffs on those goods will reach over $1 billion per day. “The major trend we see is shippers looking to not accept their freight,” said Joseph Esteves, CEO of Maine Pointe, a global supply chain consultant. “A lot of these companies are levered financially. They don’t have the working capital requirements and they don’t have the cash. So they simply cannot just take on this and hope to see what happens. They don’t have the liquidity to do that,” he said. Balance sheets and cash levels were more sensitive to major changes in costs, as consumer demand slowed, “before all this nonsense,” he said. “Every CEO we’re talking to seems to just be waiting. They’re just not accepting at this moment.” Right now, many companies are telling their manufacturing facilities to delay shipment and not have freight loaded onto a vessel. If the goods arrive to port and they can’t pay the import tariffs, the goods sit at port and the company is billed with costly detention charges. Bruce Kaminstein, an angel Investor with New York Angels and founder and former CEO of cleaning products company Casabella, knows the challenges of manufacturing in China. Kaminstein was able to navigate the tariffs in the first trade war with China but he warns start-up companies do not have the coffers of big companies to withstand the capital crunch. “Products will be left in containers because retailers won’t take them,” said Kaminstein. For now, any freight on the water will not face the new tariffs. In updated guidance on the China tariffs released by U.S. Customs on Tuesday, an “on the water clause” explained the cargo coming into the ports today or in the coming weeks will not be subject to the tariffs, which won’t be tacked on to any goods arriving until May 27. But Kaminstein says it takes years for manufacturing supply chains to be established. “The average size houseware company, for example, is $20 million. They don’t have the capital to open up a factory. ... There are no companies, no factories out there that make products for other brands,” he said. “That’s the real point here. If you have a great idea, where do you go to make the product? There are no factories here in the United States making products for other brands.” Mary Rollman, KPMG US organizational strategist & partnership executive, said companies have more sophisticated and better analytics to value the cost of moving a supply chain today, but added it does take years to find and qualify a supplier. “Companies need to evaluate the cost of restoring a supply chain,” Rollman said. “They will review the hard data on fixed costs, looking at the labor pool to see if there are enough workers to fill the demand. They also need to see if it is still cost-effective to keep manufacturing outside of the U.S. or move to other countries with fewer tariffs because it is still cheaper than coming back.” The other option, she said, is staying in the country where manufacturing takes place currently and banking on a new administration in four years which might rescind the tariffs. “We use components from all over,” Kaminstein said. “Very rarely are products just made in one place. We’re used to a global supply chain. At Casabella, we brought products in from all over the world, and we made products in the United States.” The Small Business Administration told CNBC in an email that Trump’s trade plan will ultimately support U.S. business owners. In an email, an SBA spokesman wrote, “The SBA fully supports President Trump’s efforts to restore fair trade, which will bring back American jobs and revitalize American industry, empowering entrepreneurs with the level playing field to compete and win. Combined with SBA’s new manufacturing initiative, including our effort to cut $100 billion in red tape, this administration will unleash historic opportunity for small businesses and workers alike.” Deer Stags’ “razor-thin margins” prohibited it from frontloading products, and consumers may ultimately have to pay. Muskat says difficult price talks with retailers are underway. “We had one conversation with a retailer who agreed to split the increase but they did not think they could go up in price. Most of the retail community is still trying to figure out what to do,” he said. “It is so fluid. How do you plan? Hope is not a strategy, but most people are hoping Trump and Xi will talk. Both are talking tough but this will be damaging to both countries.” “Tariffs on goods that consumers buy every day like clothes or that cannot be grown here like coffee or bananas just tripled or more,” said Josh Teitelbaum, senior counsel of Akin. “We should expect that will ripple through the economy.” “It’s important to remember the new tariffs will be paid for by U.S. importers,” said Jon Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. “While retailers will mitigate as best they can, they unfortunately won’t be able to absorb all of the increased costs. With some tariff rates near 50% and others more than 100%, many retailers will be forced to raise prices. We encourage the administration to quickly negotiate agreements with countries that we are engaged with trade.”
yessir. it will be very interesting to see how this earnings season fares given all of the crazy market moves and news that we have seen over the course of the last several weeks. here is a quick visual courtesy of earnings whispers. as you noted, the big banks start reporting by as soon as tomorrow AM: and here are the rest of the other notables coming up over the next couple of weeks ahead:
They're extremely creative but not quite creative enough to build our consumerism in places that don't despise us with intent to hurt us. Apparently, their resourcefulness only goes so far. I know it's all about the cheapest place but they weren't smart enough to calculate events like this, terrorism, war, etc. when they were calculating "cheapest".
Nice articles about tariffs. Presented with a singular PoV but still valid. This bitch is specifically about corporate ignorance. The corporate argument is, "We found this guy in the jungle of Somalia who will work for $0.19 per hour!" At most, they will include shipping and logistics when they present their offshoring argument. Logistics can be a real bitch. I appreciate the opportunity to vent... there is a guy at the Port of Vancouver who charges $250 to walk a bill of lading across the floor from the port office to customs. Don't want to pay it? You can always fly there and walk it across yourself. Of course, it's not a publicly accessible area so you need to obtain permission and pay for a supervised escort. Imagine the guy who walks a stack of paper from one office to another on the same floor of the same building and gets paid $10K for doing so. Too bad we can't have that done for $0.19 per hour.... lol! The original argument is, "We sell this item for $100. It costs us $50 to produce in the US. We can have it produced in Asia and shipped to us for $30. That increases our profit from $50 to 70 for a margin increase of 40%. Quality will wane but we have done the research and can be absolutely certain that we don't give a shit. That meeting ends with high-fives all around and adjournment to a massage parlor for further contemplation and dehydration. While this process isn't 100% wrong, it is fraught with flaws. What happens when Panama has a drought year and the canal doesn't operate at capacity? What happens when there is political unrest anywhere in the supply chain? What happens when currency fluctuates? We've seen that removing two container ships from fleet service, if they are Panamax or larger, causes a noticeable impact in global shipping. Any time you make a system more complex, it *will* become less reliable and less secure.
