The Long Term Investor

WELL....If or when the time comes that I decide to step back it will not just be....lights out......I hope. LOL. At that point I will just become a once in a while regular poster and will not be compelled to post every day about short term events.

The primary reason that I post about short term events now is:

1. To create a record in this thread of what I as a long term investor think about those events and how they DO NOT impact my investing strategy.

2. To show what a long term investor has to ENDURE....getting to the long term.

3 To provide context....for all the long term investing content in this thread and for my returns each year.

4. To try to provide emotional and mental support for others that may be struggling with short term events......impacting their long term investing plans and emotional health.

I think it is important for this thread to have short term context......for future readers that might be interested in following "my" long term investing journey through all the events that happen along the way......as those events try to derail me. Covering all the day to day NOISE.......and hopefully.....at the same time achieving a good return in spite of it all.....will, I hope..... have the potential to inspire others to IGNORE IT ALL and still achieve for their family. I am trying to show that it is possible....actually PROBABLE....to get good long term returns as a fully invested all the time investor....in spite of all the day to day fear mongering and drama.

 

Speaking of the short term....here is what we will face this week as we sit and do......NOTHING.

Buffett's Berkshire departure, Fed decision, and another rush of earnings: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buff...arnings-what-to-know-this-week-113811136.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The week ahead will be all about the weekend that was.

On Saturday, longtime Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) CEO Warren Buffett said he plans to recommend to the company's board that Greg Abel take over at the end of the year. Abel was named Buffett's successor back in 2021.

The announcement came at the end of another annual meeting that saw Buffett warn on Trump's expansive tariff plans and talk down this year's market volatility, among other things.

As for where this leaves Buffett and Berkshire, Buffett said he has no plans to sell Berkshire stock as a result of the change and won't be far away, if needed.

"I would still hang around, and could conceivably be useful in a few cases, but the final word would be what Greg said, in operations, in capital deployment, whatever it might be," Buffett said.

On Friday, Berkshire Hathaway stock closed at a record high. Shares have gained over 17% this year against a 3% drop for the S&P 500.

How investors react to this weekend's news will not only shape the market discussion in the week ahead, but given Berkshire is the 7th-largest company in the S&P 500 and sports a market cap north of $1.1 trillion, how the stock trades could influence the broader market, too.

A streak on the line

Stocks wrapped up last week on a high note, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) marking its longest winning streak since November 2004 as the index erased all of its post-"Liberation Day" losses, bolstered by a solid April jobs report and fresh optimism around US-China trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also rose 3% on the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 3.4%.


This market rally and investor optimism will be tested by the Federal Reserve.

The central bank will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday, and while no changes are expected how Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlines the Fed's thinking in the face of a shifting outlook will be the week's key economic event.

The weekly update on jobless claims on Thursday and activity checks from the manufacturing sector on Monday will also feature on the calendar.

Earnings season remains busy, with results from Ford (F), Palantir (PLTR), Disney (DIS), and AMD (AMD) among the most notable set for release.

So far this earnings season, analysts have lowered second quarter EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies by 2.4% — a larger-than-usual reduction as companies weigh concerns over tariffs and a potential economic slowdown, according to FactSet.


Powell pressure

The Fed will announce its next interest rate decision on Wednesday as policymakers evaluate the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies, which are yet to fully show up in the data.

Amid mixed economic signals, including soft survey data from those gauging consumer confidence, the central bank has maintained a cautious tone, with solid hiring and spending trends offering a more optimistic read on the outlook.

On Friday, the April jobs report showed 177,000 jobs were added last month as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, supporting expectations the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.

It’s still unclear what future actions policymakers will take as they continue to balance both sides of their dual mandate: maintaining stable prices and achieving maximum, sustained employment.

As Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger noted last week, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a difficult position. GDP data released Wednesday indicated growth contracted while inflation rose in the first quarter — an economic scenario that may ultimately require the central bank to prioritize one or the other of its two mandates, full employment and price stability.

"For the Fed, we believe today’s [jobs] number should remove any doubt that they are on hold next week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "We continue to look for a restart of the easing cycle in September."

Following April's jobs data, the probability investors were placing on a June rate cut dropped sharply. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders on Friday put just a 37% chance on policymakers cutting rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next month, down from 55% the day prior.

One person not thrilled with that shift? President Trump. He renewed his pressure on the Fed Friday morning, writing on Truth Social: “NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”

Sell in May, go away?

As May trading begins, Wall Street strategists are reexamining the longstanding "sell in May and go away" adage, with many arguing the current policy-driven market doesn't align with traditional seasonal trends.

Economic uncertainty, fragile market conditions, and key geopolitical factors like US-China trade talks are just a few of the reasons strategists don't recommend stepping aside simply because of the calendar.

"We're in a different market this year," Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, told Yahoo Finance last week. "Historically, if we go back over the past ten years, sell in May hasn't actually worked too well."

According to data compiled by LPL Financial, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has historically posted its weakest average returns between May and October — just 1.8% since 1950 — compared to the stronger November-to-April period.

While summer returns have been positive 65% of the time, their relative underperformance has reinforced the "sell in May" trend.

"Seasonality data can provide important insights into the potential market climate, but it doesn't represent the current weather," Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

"And when it comes to markets, tariff uncertainty and monetary policy right now have the power to make it rain or part clouds into sunshine.""

MY COMMENT

A big action packed week....but beyond the short term not really much to see here. The FED doing nothing is a given. For me it is all about.....PLTR earnings on Monday.

 

LOL.....now retail is using tariff fear mongering.....as a marketing strategy.

‘Dumpster fire’: Retailers urge shoppers to buy now before tariffs raise prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/04/ret...to-buy-before-trump-tariffs-raise-prices.html

 

Direct from one of the MASTERS of investing.

Warren Buffett: 'The long-term trend is up'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-the-long-term-trend-is-up-164600108.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"OMAHA, Neb. — Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, remains bullish on the long run. At the same time, he acknowledges that people will continue to be distracted by short-term market moves, which will continue to be unpredictable.

"The long-term trend is up," Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting on Saturday.

"Nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month," he added. "But they spend all their time talking about it, because it's easy to talk about. But it has no value."

Buffett was responding to a shareholder’s question about Berkshire’s massive cash pile, which grew to $347 billion in Q1. He reiterated what he said in his annual letter, which was that his preference is not to be sitting in so much cash. But he made clear that holding cash was smarter than making brash acquisitions.

"We would rather have conditions that have developed where we would have like $50 billion or something like that," he said. "But that just isn’t the way the business works."

Buffett explained if he acquired businesses or accumulated stock solely for the sake of getting that cash pile down to $50 billion, "That would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner."

For now, Buffett believes it’s better to keep dry powder for when Berkshire could be "bombarded with offerings" that offer better risk-reward opportunities than what he’s seeing today.

"We have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times," he said.

Of course, this strategy is not for everyone. Buffett and Berkshire are in the business of acquiring companies and picking stocks. In fact, Buffett has historically recommended most people to invest in passively managed S&P 500 index funds.

"We don’t think it’s improper for people who are passive investors to just make a few simple investments and sit for their life in them," he said. "But we’ve made the decision to be in this business. So we think we can do a little better than that."

Buffett downplays recent market volatility, warns of a ‘hair curler’ event

A shareholder asked Buffett specifically about the market swings we experienced in the past month.

"What has happened in the last 30, 45 days, 100 days … it’s really nothing," he said. "This is not a huge move. … This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort."

Indeed, you can get smoked in the short-term. It’s one of the truths about the stock market.

"If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy," Buffett said. "The world is not going to adapt to you. You’re going to have to adapt to the world."

Buffett cautioned that just because he doesn’t think the recent market swings were notable doesn’t mean we won’t get a more violent downturn some time in the future. He said "certainly in the next 20 years" we will get a "hair curler" event.

"The world makes big, big, big mistakes, and surprises happen in dramatic ways," he said. "The more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That’s part of the stock market. That’s what makes it a good place to focus your efforts if you have the proper temperament for it — and a terrible place to get involved if you get frightened by markets that decline and get excited when stock markets go up. I don’t mean to sound particularly critical. People have emotions. But you have to check them at the door when you invest."

Zooming out

Buffett covered a lot during his five-hour long Q&A. His comments on protectionist trade policy and pessimism toward the U.S. economy were particularly interesting. A lot of media outlets are covering it. I may write about it later.

But the big news out of this year’s event was Buffett’s announcement that he intends to step down as CEO as he makes way for vice chairman Greg Abel to succeed him.

"I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year-end," Buffett said.

Buffett’s time at the helm of Berkshire may be coming to an end. But his timeless investing lessons will surely endure.

Review of the macro crosscurrents

There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:

The stock market rallied last week, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.9% to close at 5,686.67. It’s now down 7.4% from its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15 and up 59% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03. For more on how the market moves, read: One of the most misunderstood moments in stock market cycles ⏱️

The labor market continues to add jobs.

According to the BLS’s Employment Situation report released Friday, U.S. employers added 177,000 jobs in April. The report reflected the 52nd straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/A...tiRo0pFPKeSmfD1A?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: BLS via FRED)

Total payroll employment is at a record 159.5 million jobs, up 7.2 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — stood at 4.2% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since November 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.

Wage growth ticks lower.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month in April, down from the 0.3% pace in March. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 3.8%.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/P...uPCXSZ0PIsXKybBo?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: BLS via FRED)

Job openings fall.

According to the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, employers had 7.19 million job openings in March, down from 7.48 million in February.

During the period, there were 7.08 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.01 job openings per unemployed person. This continues to be one of the more obvious signs of excess demand for labor. However, this metric has returned to prepandemic levels.

Layoffs remain depressed, hiring remains firm.

Employers laid off 1.56 million people in March. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric remains below prepandemic levels.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0...LQWcq6Dgmbcyc2HQ?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: BLS via FRED)

Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.4 million people.

That said, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has been trending lower, which could be a sign of trouble to come in the labor market.

People are quitting less.

In March, 3.3 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While the rate is above recent lows, it continues to trend below prepandemic levels.

A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.

Job switchers still get better pay.

According to ADP, which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in April for people who changed jobs was up 6.9% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.5%.


(Source: ADP)

Key labor costs metric ticks up.

The employment cost index in the Q1 was up 0.9% from the prior quarter.

Unemployment claims tick higher.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 241,000 during the week ending April 26, up from 223,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.

Consumer vibes deteriorate.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in April. From the firm’s Stephanie Guichard: "The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.

Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations."

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/B...Y3Izynpo0sonI2QA?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: The Conference Board)

"Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months rose in February."

Consumers feel worse about the labor market.

From The Conference Board’s April Consumer Confidence survey: "Consumers’ views of the labor market weakened in April. 31.7% of consumers said jobs were ‘plentiful,’ down from 33.6% in March. 16.6% of consumers said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ up from 16.1%."

Many economists monitor the spread between these two percentages (a.k.a., the labor market differential), and it’s been reflecting a cooling labor market.

Inflation cools.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in March was up 2.2% from a year ago. The core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — was up 2.6% during the month, down from February’s 3.0% rate. While it’s above the Fed’s 2% target, it remains near its lowest level since March 2021.

On a month over month basis, the core PCE price index was up 0.03%. If you annualized the rolling three-month and six-month figures, the core PCE price index was up 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/f...B6-DbHeHlL05Uu-Q?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: Greg Daco)

Consumer spending ticks up.

According to BEA data, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.7% month over month in March to a record annual rate of $20.65 trillion.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/M...HCrHseW0cO1xRKvw?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: BEA via FRED)

Adjusted for inflation, real personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.7%

Card spending data is holding up.

From JPMorgan: "As of 22 Apr 2025, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 1.0% below the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 22 Apr 2025, our estimate of the US Census April control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.50%."


(Source: JPMorgan)

From BofA: "Total card spending per HH was down 1.9% y/y in the week ending Apr 26, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Easter Sunday (historically lower spending Sunday) timing mismatch (4/20/25 vs 3/31/24) likely drove the y/y rate decline. Meanwhile, total card spending per HH was up 0.9% on a 52-week basis in the six days after Easter Sunday."


(Source: BofA)

April spending is likely being boosted by consumers pulling forward purchases in an attempt to front-run tariffs.

Gas prices tick higher.

From AAA: "The national average for a gallon of regular saw few changes over the past week, going up slightly to $3.18. Even though this is the time of year when we typically see seasonal increases and rising demand, the price of crude oil has been plunging.

A couple of factors are at play: economic concerns and the decision by OPEC+ (the group of oil-producing countries) to increase output and add more oil to the market, despite tepid demand. The lower the price of oil, the less drivers pay at the pump. The national average is almost 50 cents less than it was this time last year."

Imports surge.

Here’s Bloomberg on March Census data: "The US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in March to a record as companies continued importing goods to get ahead of tariffs, indicating a large hit to the economy in the first quarter. … In the March merchandise trade report, imports rose 5% to $342.7 billion, led by a record surge in consumer goods, while inbound shipments of motor vehicles and capital goods also increased. Exports increased 1.2%."

Mortgage rates tick lower.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.76% from 6.81% last week. From Freddie Mac: "Mortgage rates again declined this week. In recent weeks, rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have fallen even lower than the first quarter average of 6.83%."
There are 147.8 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.1 million are owner-occupied and about 34.1 million of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows.

All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.

Home prices rise.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index, home prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in February. From S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Nicholas Godec: "Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience. Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth."

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/B...VqJYXWi8iv6PizXw?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: S&P Dow Jones)

Construction spending ticks lower.

Construction spending increased 0.7% to an annual rate of $2.196 trillion in March.

Manufacturing surveys weren’t great.

From S&P Global’s April U.S. Manufacturing PMI: "Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs. Factory output fell for a second successive month as tariffs were widely blamed on a slump in export orders and curbed spending among customers more broadly amid rising uncertainty. Although the survey saw some producers report evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of customer demand away from imports, any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales."

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/L...XiWHHNBdq8bqn7bA?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: S&P Global)

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also deteriorated, signaling contraction in the industry.

Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.

Texas area managers are worried about the future.

From the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: "Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020. The company outlook index also retreated to a postpandemic low of -28.3. The outlook uncertainty index pushed up 11 points to 47.1."
Comments from survey respondents were riddled with references to "uncertainty" related to the Trump administration’s tariff policy.

They included:

• "There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty."
  
  
• "President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon."
  
  
• "The current economic environment is confusing. President Trump keeps things in turmoil, and we do not know what he will do next."
  
  
• "Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans."
  
  
• "Tariffs are causing uncertainty and a reduction in demand for our products. We buy all raw materials domestically but are still experiencing adverse business climate due to reduction in demand."
  
  
• "Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. There was a better way to do this."

GDP declined in Q1.

The BEA estimated that real GDP contracted at a 0.3% rate in Q1. This is down from the +2.4% growth rate in Q4 2024.

However, this was driven by a spike in imports. Negative net exports cut a record 4.83 percentage points from the GDP growth rate.

Because the way GDP is calculated includes a lot of quirks, economists will often point to "real final sales to private domestic purchasers" to get a better sense of the underlying health of the economy. This metric excludes net exports, inventory adjustments, and government spending. That metric grew at a respectable 3.0% rate in Q1, up modestly from the 2.9% rate in Q4.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/y...E2BuHPWtroCHgGeQ?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: Nick Timiraos via TKer)

Business investment activity ticks higher.

Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a.k.a. core capex or business investment — rose 0.1% to $75.05 billion in March.

[img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0...MWEIOmzB8S0CiqsX?key=0IkexuQtN6fXjXFLdEeGUtED" alt="(Source: Census via FRED)

Core capex orders are a leading indicator, meaning they foretell economic activity down the road. The growth rate had leveled off a bit, but they’ve perked up in recent months. However, economists caution that this may reflect a pull forward in sales ahead of new tariffs.

Key recession indicators point to growth.

Here’s a great chart from economist Justin Wolfers tracking the trajectory of key measures of economic activity.

From Wolfers: "My guess: There remains a *substantial chance* that the NBER will at some point declare there's a 2025 recession. But given that other reliable data suggest the economy was still humming along through most of Q1, it's unlikely that recession began in Jan or Feb."

Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking positive.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth rising at a 1.1% rate in Q2.

Offices remain relatively empty.

From Kastle Systems: "Peak day office occupancy was 63% on Tuesday last week, down six tenths of a point from the previous week. Washington, D.C. experienced the biggest single-day drop, falling more than eight points on Wednesday as local government offices were closed to observe Emancipation Day. New York’s high was 62.9% on Tuesday, down nearly six points from the previous week. The average low was on Friday at 35.2%, down 1.1 points from the previous week."

Putting it all together

The tariffs announced by President Trump as they stand threaten to upend global trade — with significant implications for the U.S. economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. Until we get some more clarity, here’s where things stand:

Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.

Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains positive, supported by healthy consumer and business balance sheets. Job creation, while cooling, also remains positive, and the

Federal Reserve — having resolved the inflation crisis — has shifted its focus toward supporting the labor market.

But growth is cooling: While the economy remains healthy, growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less "coiled" these days as major tailwinds like excess job openings have faded. It has become harder to argue that growth is destiny.

Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period given that the hard economic data has decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continue to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.

Stocks are not the economy: Analysts expect the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy, thanks largely due to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have adjusted their cost structures aggressively. This has come with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.

Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, this does not mean we should get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about — such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, cyber attacks, etc. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.

Investing is never a smooth ride: There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect to experience as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.

Think long term: For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t be able to overcome over time. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak long-term investors can expect to continue."

MY COMMENT

Way too much above to discuss or review. The comments from BUFFET are classic and TRUTH. the review in the second half of the article is a good starting point for anyone that wants to dig down into the economy.

AND....as said above if you look at all the economic data above.....the stock markets are NOT the economy and the economy is NOT the stock markets. As an investor I pay attention to the big economic picture.....but...the key for me is FUNDAMENTALS of the companies and the markets.

 

I have another CRAZY week this week.....so I will not be on the markets many of the days. Today I have to leave about 10:30 for an event that will take up most of the afternoon.

I did put up some good posts over the weekend....so that will have to do for today. NOTHING new going on anyway. PLTR reports today after the bell.

 

Waiting for the markets to fully wake up and have their coffee today to see where we are really heading. It will take another hour or so. At the open.....the short term profit takers were controlling the big averages.

 

As the markets slowly improve from the open....I start the day with three of nine stocks in the green....WMT, GOOGL, and MSFT.

 

I like this little article:

CHARLES PAYNE: What every American needs to do when the stock market is sinking
Investors aged 18 to 81 are fortunate to live in this era. Here's what I want you to know right now

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...y-american-needs-do-when-stock-market-sinking

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Investing in the market is a lifelong endeavor -- the sooner you start, the better off you will be.

Looking at the last hundred years, it seems like an easy decision. Since the late 1970s, anyone would take all the gains in the S&P 500 against the occasional loss. Investors aged 18 to 81 are fortunate to live in this era.

Investors today are already carving out:

A different approach

A different confidence

Instead of reacting emotionally and indefinitely postponing investment plans due to market volatility, the fresh bear market provides the perfect timing to get in.

I am imploring everyone to be ready to confront a situation head-on and to be opportunistic.

This is more than buying the dip. Long-term investors should be building positions right now and everyone should be a long-term investor.

It is advisable to trade with a portion of your portfolio while maintaining core positions that could significantly impact your financial situation. Great news! Positions are available, both new and familiar, at discounted prices.

I aim for you to thrive in periodic corrections and bear markets, not merely survive them.

This is more than buying the dip. Long-term investors should be building positions right now and everyone should be a long-term investor.

An old saying suggests success comes from time invested in the market rather than timing the market. This is true, especially if you are a passive investor. But there is a much bigger return for those genuinely prepared to seize the moment.

U.S. household wealth in the stock market now makes up 170% of disposable income. The top 10% of American households own 87% of all stocks. Ironically, the top 10% percent is hoping the current turmoil will make you give up and sell your portfolio now. In the future, the experts will run the money while you vote in the interest of corporations over Main Street.

Regular folks have realized that the stock market is how you can get rich. The American way of life revolves around the financialization of the economy and the stock market. We stopped investing in factors and in people, and instead, money makes money.

There have been 35 recessions in the United States since 1854. During this time, we fueled a boom that lifted the country past the U.K. The Second Industrial Revolution created major cities and disposable income and triggered the American Century.

Looking at recent years, what stands out?

Fewer and shorter recessions. The system is designed to bounce back quickly. And along with the rebound in the economy comes the rebound in the stock market.

The fix is in.

So, when the stock market is tumbling, and Wall Street and the financial media go into overdrive, urging people to sell, you must consider two other alternatives.

1. Stay in the market and keep on passively investing.
2. Stay in the market and buy the dip.

I know you are smart enough, but there is a difference between knowledge and smarts; the key is tangible experience.

I always crack up at memes of old folks having a blast doing all kinds of crazy things without a care in the world because they bought their $5 million house for 12 raspberries in 1947.

Baby boomers are still buying more homes than millennials and Gen Z has completely given up.

I get the bitter sarcasm because today's young adults believe they will never have the chance to buy the American Dream. I understand that, and I share your frustration.

If possible, I am sure you would like to travel to the past and buy a house. H.G. Wells published "The Time Machine" in 1895, a profound book with a deep message. Several films have been adapted from the book, notably the 1960s version starring Rod Taylor. What I like about the story is the ability to go back in time and into the future.

What if you could do that in real life and join the boomers, scooping up all those houses for fruit? You can use a time machine to build wealth in the stock market.

When you look at a long-term market chart, the pullbacks look frightening. But from now on, you should treat them like going back in time and buying great stocks at prices that will profoundly change your life."

MY COMMENT

It is amazing how often I now see content lauding long term investing. Back in the 1990's when I first started posting about being a long term investor.....and for much of my life.....long term investors were derided as "buy and hold fools".

Of course those of us that knew better......are now sitting pretty. YOU can too....take the first step to financial security for you and your family.....JOIN US.

 

We are STILL all red....but....I like how the averages are improving and moving toward the green. Will they actually get there today.....who knows.

OK people.....have a good day......and as usual.....MAKE ME SOME MONEY.

 

I was in the REd today....but all in all not too bad. I had four stocks GREEN....COST, GOOGL, MSFT, and WMT. I also got in a.......HUGE, GINORMOUS, MONSTER, BEAT....on the SP500 today by.....0.01%.

 

HERE is the PLTR earnings.....of course it is down after hours....after all it was a beat and raised guidance.

Palantir shares fall as company reports in-line earnings, lifts full-year guidance

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Palantir beat estimates for first-quarter revenue and boosted its full-year guidance as companies adopt its AI software.
• “We are delivering the operating system for the modern enterprise in the era of AI,” CEO Alex Karp wrote in an earnings release Monday.
• Palantir shares have defied 2025′s broad downtrend in technology stocks, with shares up more than 60% year to date.

Palantir boosted its revenue guidance Monday and reported earnings that met expectations as the artificial intelligence software company saw its shares fall about 9% after the bell.

Here’s how the company did compared with LSEG consensus estimates:

• Earnings per share: 13 cents adjusted vs. 13 cents expected
• Revenue: $884 million vs. $863 million expected

“We are delivering the operating system for the modern enterprise in the era of AI,” CEO Alex Karp wrote in an earnings release Monday, adding that the company is in the “middle of a tectonic shift in the adoption” of its software.

The defense technology company said that its commercial revenues grew 71% from a year ago to $255 million, while its government segment sales jumped 45% to $373 million. The company is forecasting that U.S. commercial revenues will top $1.178 billion this year.

Karp attributed Palantir’s government sector growth to greater U.S. defense sector adoption of its tools. He said that demand for large language models and the software supporting it has “turned into a stampede” and “ravenous whirlwind of adoption.”

Palantir’s revenues grew 39% from $634.3 million in the year-ago period. Net income rose to about $214 million, or 8 cents per share, from roughly $105.5 million, or 4 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. U.S revenues jumped 55% to $628 million, Palantir said.

The company, which provides AI software and technology solutions for governments and corporations, also hiked its full-year revenue outlook to between $3.89 billion and $3.90 billion. During its last earnings report, Palantir projected that full-year revenues would range between $3.74 billion and $3.76 billion. The company expects revenues to range between $934 million and $938 million in the current quarter.

“We believe our results are indicative of a revolution sweeping across our business and industry,” Karp wrote in a letter to shareholders, calling the company’s rise “unparalleled.” He also quoted President Richard Nixon and the New Testament.

Palantir shares have defied 2025′s broad downtrend in technology stocks. The stock is up 64% this year, benefitting from its key defense contracts and President Donald Trump’s effort to cut federal spending with the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency. Palantir is also the best performer in the S&P 500.

The company also boosted its adjusted free cash flow outlook for the year to between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion. Adjusted income for operations is expected to range between $1.711 billion and $1.723 billion.

Palantir said it closed 139 deals totaling at least $1 million during the period, 51 of which topped at least $5 million. Palantir said 31 deals exceeded $10 million."

MY COMMENT

UNBELIEVABLE that the stock is down on this great earnings BEAT and boost in guidance. Revenue grew 71% for commercial and 45% for government, etc, etc, etc.

WHATEVER......I love it.

 

HERE is another take.......of course I believe the WALL STREET professionals have it in for this stock....it is constantly disrespected.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-investors-just-got-spectacular-022542376.html

 

I will totally miss the first half of the market day tomorrow.