OK....I will have a bit more time next week. BUT...I will totally miss the market day on Tuesday. I will be leaving for San Antonio for a private event about 6:45AM and will not be back till early evening. I also have a bit of overnight travel coming up in June and July......mostly to the Dallas area...that will wipe out a few random market days. WHATEVER....my portfolio and the markets do not care.
It continues: White House announces U.S.-China trade deal, offers few details https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/11/us-china-trade-tariffs-talks.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Key Points Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend were “productive.” He said he would give more details in a complete briefing on Monday morning. Bessent added that President Donald Trump is “fully informed” about the discussions. The White House on Sunday announced a “trade deal” with China without providing specifics, after Trump administration officials spent the weekend negotiating with their Chinese counterparts. While details of the deal are still unclear, any de-escalation in the ongoing trade war could bring much-needed relief to a global economy that has been roiled since President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the trade talks that took place in Geneva over the weekend were “productive.” He said the talks yielded “a great deal” of productivity and that he would give more details in a complete briefing on Monday morning. Bessent also said that he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer both spoke to President Donald Trump on Saturday evening and “he is fully informed” about the discussions. Greer said during remarks on Sunday that the officials reached some form of a “deal,” but did not provide any specifics. He hailed the discussions as “very constructive.” “It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought,” Greer said. “We’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us work toward resolving that national emergency,” he added. The high-stakes negotiations in Switzerland this weekend come amid widespread economic uncertainty stemming from the U.S.-China trade war. The two nations have been engaged in a tariff tit-for-tat in the weeks since Trump announced 145% tariffs on Beijing. In response, China raised its levies on U.S. goods to 125%. The standoff has roiled the financial markets and sparked concerns of fewer goods and rising prices for consumers. Trump praised the first day of discussions, writing that the U.S. officials had a “very good meeting today with China” in a Saturday Truth Social post. “Many things discussed, much agreed to,” Trump wrote. “A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.” Bessent said that he and Greer met with the vice premier of China, in addition to two vice ministers, who the treasury secretary called “integrally involved” in discussions." MY COMMENT This looks very promising. Although I am sure the media will be all over it....with there usual SKEPTICAL and NEGATIVE language. NOW....if this happens....the trade deals are going to start to flow like water. So much for all the NEGATIVITY about inflation, stagflation, recession, etc, etc. In reality much of this trade "stuff" is going to be settled before much of the tariffs even happen. It is called....NEGOTIATION. As an extremely experienced negotiator....I could see where this stuff was all headed from day one. CLASSIC tactics and strategy. AND......in the end.......the result is going to be very good for the USA and our business community. Although....I have yet to see China EVER live up to any treaty, trade deal, or anything else they commit to do or not do.
BUT....I would not be surprised if the markets will find some way to crap all over this tomorrow.....I am curious to see the futures tonight. AND....even if all this trade stuff quickly falls in line.....the media will simply quickly transition over to the next 3-4 new fear-mongering topics and all the ink and opinion that was wasted on trade will simply be quickly forgotten. NEVER MIND.
Sooner or later the truth comes out. In this case....it comes out later......and....as usual will be ignored. How much inventory did companies actually build ahead of tariffs? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-...ctually-build-ahead-of-tariffs-140916931.html MY COMMENT Short answer....not much: "Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha analyzed the data to estimate how much extra inventory companies have accumulated. It’s not much."
AND....lest we forget. EARNINGS were HUGE this time around with 90% in the can. Although...NVDA remains to be seen. Critical Data • 90% of S&P 500 companies have now reported results, 78% reported a positive EPS surprise.....62% reported a positive revenue surprise. • For Q1 2025, year-over-year earnings growth rate (S&P 500) is 13.4%. 13.4% represents the second-straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. • As of March 31, year-over-year earnings growth rate for for Q1 2024 was 7.1%. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_050925.pdf
Besides announcements the big news this week......CPI and PPI. "The week ahead will bring a fresh update on inflation, with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Retail sales will offer a read on the health of the American consumer. And investors will also be on the lookout for advancing trade deals, following a limited, bilateral pact with the UK." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...-focus-what-to-watch-this-week-141426449.html
As you probably would expect, I agree with some of the comment and some not so much...LOL. From what I can see these are no where near actual "deals", but a beginning point of working through a long laundry list. That is good because we have to start somewhere. Everything has to have a beginning. If it ends up being an actual deal it will be a long road to settle. However, if it offers some clarity and calms the tensions, puts us in a better position....I'm all for it. I can't agree on it being a good example of negotiation. If this is "classic" strategy....I would love to be up against that. Especially, since they were continually telegraphing their moves out in the open. I have been in more than a few "negotiating" settings myself, and the ones coordinated in the fashion these have....well, we just sat back and let them tell us most of their moves without having to do a thing early on. Especially when the other side loves to talk and put on a show. We had their plan and a lower starting point before we ever got in the room. Now, all that said....who cares right? As long as we eventually end up in a decent spot and things work out to our favor....I am all for getting it done and moving on.
Futures are very strong.....looking good. But as I always say.....futures dont mean much. I am sure we will see a good, if not great, open. But how the day progresses will.....as usual....be up in the air till it is over. We will get CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. So.....it will be a week where stocks will be subject to much speculation, opinion, distortion, rumor, innuendo, and other market impacting media commentary.....all week.....on a number of topics. As usual the approach for any long term investor will be to simply.....IGNORE IT ALL.
