CPI....makes liars or at least FOOLS out of all the fear-mongers and speculative opinion writers, saying that we would see a jump in inflation based on the tariff "stuff". WRONG AGAIN.....as usual......NEVER MIND. Now lets see what PPI is going to tell us....on thursday. CNBC Daily Open: Tame inflation in April banishes stagflation threat for now https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/14/cnb...pril-banishes-stagflation-threat-for-now.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Inflation in the U.S. rose lower than expected in April. After rising on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is in the green for 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump said he will lift sanctions on Syria. Microsoft will be laying off 3% of its employees. Coinbase shares jump on the company’s impending inclusion in the S&P. UBS Wealth downgrades its rating on U.S. stocks. The U.S. Federal Reserve at its May 7 meeting warned that America is facing an increased risk of stagflation — a scenario in which the economy slows or contracts while inflation shoots up — because of hefty tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump from April 2. Inflation data released Tuesday, however, showed that prices haven’t grown hotter yet. In fact, the annual reading came in lower than expected, and the core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also less than forecast for the month. Admittedly, the data only captures a month after Trump tariffs were introduced. The rush of imports in the beginning of the year — which was a big part of why U.S. gross domestic product fell in the first quarter — could have dampened price increases. Businesses might have also been swallowing the taxes. But with the pause of “reciprocal” tariffs, a trade deal with the U.K. and an agreement with China to temporarily slash three-digit duties — all of which will suppress price hikes and keep the American consumer, the bedrock of the U.S. economy, happy — the threat of stagflation seems to be diminished for now. in April, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Annual inflation was lower than the expected 2.4%. Core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The S&P 500 is positive for the year. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.72%, putting it around 0.1% in the green for 2025. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.61%, lifted by Nvidia’s 5.6% jump on news that the company is sending 18,000 advanced chips to Saudi Arabia. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.64% after a nearly 18% drop in shares of UnitedHealth pressured the benchmark. The pan-European Stoxx 600 ticked up 0.12%. Trump lifts sanctions on Syria U.S. President Donald Trump is in Saudi Arabia for the first diplomatic trip of his second term. At the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh on Tuesday, Trump announced he will remove all sanctions on Syria. The country has been designated by the U.S. as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1979. Trump also announced at the same event that Saudi Arabia will be investing $600 billion in the U.S. in a series of deals........." ETC, ETC, ETC. MY COMMENT It was ALL a big fat bunch of unsubstantiated.....BS.
AND Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/cpi-inflation-april-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021. The core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago. While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer. Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday. The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago. Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing flat to slightly lower and Treasury yields mixed. “Good news on inflation, and we need it given inflation shocks from tariffs are on their way,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Non-tariffed goods are still in the pipeline, and perhaps some importers have absorbed their tariff costs for now.” Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS. After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline. Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%. Health insurance increased 0.4% while motor vehicle insurance was up 0.6%. Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago. With the increase in CPI, real average hourly earnings were flat for the month and up 1.4% from a year ago. While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer. In his much-awaited “liberation day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations. Economists figure that even with the easing of the 145% reciprocal tariffs against China, inflation numbers could perk up again in the summer months, though the degree to which that will happen is an open question. Trump left in place the across-the-board tariffs. “Overall, there was no sign of the tariff impact in the April CPI. Although we expect higher tariffs will likely exert upward pressures on core CPI, starting in May, weakening of consumer demand and an inventory drawdown might mitigate the inflationary pressure,” Nomura economist Aichi Amemiya said in a note. Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year. Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years. The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though the CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which is seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation." MY COMMENT Dont worry fear-mongers.....you still have some hope that the PPI will come in a bit higher. What a big JOKE. AND.....SHELTER is the big reason for much of the current inflation....and...that is a very LAGGING indicator. It takes months for shelter data to show what is REALLY....CURRENT....economic normal. A page or two ago I posted an article that also shows that the BIG JUMP IN INVENTORY story line was also......BS. Unfortunately we are subjected to this BS "stuff" every day and most people simply believe it.
YES.....another BIG WIN for me today.....a very nice gain in spite of WMT, MSFT, HD, and COST being in the RED. The rest of my stocks.....especially....PLTR and NVDA were up BIG today. Plus I got in a HUGE beat on the SP500 today by.....1.90%. I am now in the GREEN....YTD....for my entire account at......+0.031%. Not much....but green is green. I will take it but I need to add to it to build up some cushion.
YES....I would say there is more of a danger now that the FED will wait too long as they sit mute.....with their little passive aggressive, semi-political, posture......and....refusal to think about rate cuts. With "shelter" being the big driver of inflation in the new lower inflation figures...there is a real chance that the economy is not near as strong as the FED thinks. Shelter.....being a longer term situation for most people.....is very much a LAGGING indicator that takes many months to accurately be reflected in the data and the current economy.
I like this little article Record Main Street and Wall Street divide: Individual investors been buying stocks for 21 weeks straight https://investorsobserver.com/news/...ors-been-buying-stocks-for-21-weeks-straight/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Despite a rough start to Trump’s first 100 days back in office, individual investors are throwing caution to the wind and buying the dip at a record pace, even as Wall Street steps back. According to Bank of America (BofA) data, individual investors have now been net buyers for 21 weeks straight, the longest streak on record. That’s more than twice as long as the previous record set in 2021–2022. Over the last four weeks alone, Bank of America’s private clients bought $2 billion worth of stocks, a new high. Meanwhile, hedge funds sold a record $1.5 billion. Institutional clients pulled $2.7 billion, the second-largest outflow ever recorded. “This is a much larger divergence between retail and institutional investors than during the 2022 bear market,”“This is a much larger divergence between retail and institutional investors than during the 2022 bear market,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote. “The Main Street and Wall Street divide is massive.” The BofA data shows a growing number of retail investors are buying the dip, picking up stocks during sell-offs in hopes of lowering their average cost. InvestorsObserver first reported the trend on April 8, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement sparked a market slide that drew comparisons to the early pandemic crash. That strategy may already be paying off. Stocks bounce back after tariff-driven selloff Markets took a beating in early April. The Nasdaq briefly fell into bear market territory, and the S&P 500 was down more than 15% for the year. At the worst point, markets had lost a combined $5 trillion in just two days. But after Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs and hinted at more trade deals, stocks started to recover. The Nasdaq has since cut its year-to-date loss to 6.5%. The S&P 500 is down less than 4%. Trump’s trade agreement with the United Kingdom helped lift the mood. “You better go out and buy stock now,” he told reporters from the White House. Some analysts questioned how meaningful the deal really is but say it was enough to shift sentiment in the markets. “A trade agreement — even if it’s just in principle — is what the markets were looking to see,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management." MY COMMENT In the race or battle between the little retail investors and the "professionals" I know who is going to win. The same investors that win time after time by doing what this little article reflects.....the retail investors buying dips. They.....we.....are racking up the gains right now. We are reaping the rewards for siting and doing nothing during the little correction. As to the hedge funds.....and.....institutional clients.....BUMMER.......It sucks to be you.
Yep, it feels good to do nothing in times like these while everyone else runs around with their hair on fire.
The current situation and stance in the markets is a perfect example of why it is very important for long term investors to be fully invested all the time. No matter what is happening in the markets.....no matter the DRUM BEAT OF DOOM.....no matter how bad things look....no mater what the "experts" say....investors NEVER know when BIG RALLIES are going to happen. BIG stock gains come out of nowhere. It is critical in order to get the big COMPOUNDING to be in the markets on the days when the big jumps happen. The current four week rally is a perfect example....the markets were in a NASTY two month correction......and....the tariff drama was icing on the top of the pre-existing correction to drive the markets lower....lower...lower......for a very short time. Those that gave in to the RELENTLESS DOOM and sold out of the markets or changed their long term focus....are now paying the price. if you sold..not only are you now going to pay capital gains taxes....assuming you have a gain....but....you have now missed one of the greatest market rallies in the past ten years. YES....it takes GUTS and NERVE to sit and watch the markets go down.....and....endure the HUGE DRUMBEAT of dour commentary every day......that is amplified by political opportunists. BUT....that is just what you have to do as a long term investor. Of all the regular posters on here I dont think anyone sold out........"we"....are a BRAVE group. CONGRATULATIONS to us all. We ALL have different backgrounds, politics, biases, financial situations, etc, etc,.....but we have one thing in common...we are ALL good long term investors.
Looks like the tax bill is moving nicely. Regardless of politics it WILL have a positive impact on the markets moving forward. Events, data, legislation, etc, etc....are all coming together to create a very positive future for market momentum. Tax Plan Gains Momentum in House as It Heads to Floor Vote https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tax-plan-gains-momentum-115926065.html (I edited the headline a little bit)
POOF.....easy come easy go. JUST LIKE THAT WALL STREETS RECESSION CALLS ARE VANISHING https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...t-scaling-back-recession-calls-100054918.html
PLTR.....on a killer roll as a company and as a stock. MASSIVE MOMENTUM in spite of wonky numbers on the PE side of things. This company is very different from anything I have seen in a long time. When Zukodany first started talking about it I looked at it and had some concern about their reliance on government for a huge portion of their business and their skimpy private business. NOW....I see their ties to government and massive government contracts as a BIG plus. The government business gives the company a nice base......and security.... to their earnings. AND....they continue to quickly and frantically grow their private non-government business. The best of both worlds.....they are a big defense and government contractor....but...they are booming in their private business side...the best of both worlds for a company. Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Is “Mission Critical” for U.S. Defense, Well-Known Investor Says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-mission-144842976.html
Yes....the markets are open but I am ignoring them so far. it is a mildly positive market right now with ALL the big averages in the green. NASDAQ is the best of the bunch so far. BUT.....we need to get past the PPI data tomorrow. if those numbers are good...it should seal the deal on a KILLER week for stocks and funds.....and of course for the investors that own them. I see us getting good PPI data tomorrow and entering a time period of an escalating BIG SHORT SQUEEZE.....BUMMER for the professionals. They will be forced to ivnest back in the markets....after selling out a big chunk of money just a few weeks ago.
I am NOT a TECHNICAL ANALYSIS guy. But if you are....here you go. Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term https://finance.yahoo.com/research/...gZv6P8Om9PEtpNzAP8GP1RtfpwF47Pk32QgRMy5Run093
HERE is the market so far today. S&P 500 rises as Wall Street builds on strong rebound from April low https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were higher Wednesday as Wall Street looked to extend a strong start to the week that pushed the benchmark S&P 500 into the green for the year. The S&P 500 inched up 0.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 89 points, or 0.2%. Technology stocks continued to lead the rebound on Wednesday. Shares of Nvidia advanced more than 2%, following news that it would send Saudi Arabia 18,000 of its top artificial intelligence chips. Peer chip stock AMD also rose more than 7% on the back of a $6 billion buyback. Week to date, the S&P 500 and Dow are up more than 4% and 2%, respectively. The Nasdaq has soared more than 6%. This week’s pop also put the S&P 500 in positive territory for the year. At one point, the S&P 500 was more than 20% below its record high set in February. Since hitting that April 7 intraday low, the benchmark is up more than 21%. Risk appetite grew this week after the U.S. and China temporarily slashed tariffs on a wide array of goods. The U.S. reduced tariffs on China to 30% earlier this week, while China lowered its own levies to 10% on U.S. imports. Both nations had threatened in April to impose tariffs above 100% on the other. “While this progress has led to a likely peak in investor fear and policy uncertainty, there are still a lot of unknowns over where tariff rates will ultimately land,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. “However, for now, investors have embraced the de-escalatory backdrop, especially the tariff reprieve deal reached with China over the weekend.” The tentative agreement between the world’s biggest economies has led investors to hope it will eventually yield a more concrete trade agreement. China and the U.S. have not yet agreed to specific terms for a deal, however, and Trump said this week that a final agreement wouldn’t happen quickly. Still, the 90-day pause in the steepest threatened tariffs news has calmed nerves for investors that were worried that rising trade disputes tensions might push the U.S. and global economies into a recession in 2025. “It’s a big risk-on sentiment at the moment. … While the structural issues between [the U.S. and China] remain unresolved, I think the signal is quite clear that neither side wants to push trade tensions further,” said Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro." MY COMMENT We are seeing the impact of all those....pent up pressures....that I talk about recently.....in the markets right now. AND....we are only at the beginning of that pressure being released in the markets. Personally..... I am very bullish right now for the rest of the year. Of course....there will be bumps along the way.....but I like where and how we are sitting right now.....as I look out over the next 6-12 market months.
KILLER news. Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/nvidia-blackwell-ai-chips-saudi-arabia.html "Key Points Nvidia will sell more than 18,000 of its latest artificial intelligence chips to Saudi company Humain, CEO Jensen Huang announced Tuesday. The announcement was made as part of a White House-led trip to the region that includes President Donald Trump and other top CEOs. Nvidia said its first deployment will use its GB300 Blackwell chips, which are among Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips."
To continue the above few posts.....we have a BIG delegation of our BIG TECH company leaders over in the Middle East right now....yes...."BIG" is the operative word.. We have just racked up (signed) ONE TRILLION in deals with Middle Eastern countries AND.....our tech company leaders are probably making some massive, BIG deals of their own. It is AMAZING to see how those countries in the MIDDLE EAST are embracing AI and tech and racing to be WORLD leaders in AI tech and investment.
I am showing a good start to the day.....1.5 hours in. Six of my nine stocks are GREEN....including my dominant holdings in NVDA and PLTR. Right now my three RED stocks are.....AAPL, AMZN and COST. SHOW ME THE MONEY.
So right TireSmoke. I also like the other part of your post on the last page about using some of your investment gains to fund major purchases in your life. Being a long term investor is a good thing....but....there will be times in your life that the smart decision will be to use some of that money to further your financial and personal well being....a new house....a new car....your kids education....etc, etc. it is ALL about BALANCE and knowing when to use some of those funds to be debt free or advance your personal and family life. One of my kids and their spouse....both.... bought new cars in 2024. Both of their cars were over ten years old and FAILING quickly. I encouraged them both to sell some of their stock account in order to pay cash for two new cars. At times you simply have to treat yourself and use some of that hard earned money. AND.....they are now within easy range of....their accounts being back to all time highs....not quite yet but I can see it in the near future....they are close. SO.....did they get two...."FREE"....cars. Well no....but sometimes it does seem that way....when you get lucky and use some of your money for a good reason and than are back to your prior all time high within a short time.
Speaking of my kids account above. I have been giving their two accounts a lot of focus over the past year or two. AND....the results of what their acccounts have done is impressive. EXCLUDING contributions....my kids two accounts together are at an annual gain of +16.61% per year since December 31, 2016. December of 2016 is the earliest performance date that Schwab will give me for performance data....I did not pick that date. Year to date one account is +7.73% the other is at +4.07%. For ONE year one account is at +44.05% the other is at +25.97%. For comparison......from December 31, 2016.....the two accounts....together.... with an annual gain of +16.61% are BEATING the SP500 by about 2% per year for that....8.5 year time span. Any time I can BEAT the SP500 long term I will take it and CELEBRATE. As usual.....ALL....the accounts that I manage are invested the same as my PORTFOLIO MODEL....same stocks same funds. I currently have or manage SIX accounts for myself and family. ALL accounts are FULLY invested all the time....for the long term...in the same holdings. I put my money and my families money where my mouth is. We will all live or die by the same sword.
