The Long Term Investor

I see news items that we have just INKED deals worth $600BILLION with the Saudi's and $1.2Trillion with Qatar.

HERE is what I am excited about.

Nvidia stock extends gains as Saudi Arabia set to spend billions on AI chips, US moves to rescind Biden's chip curbs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...s-to-rescind-bidens-chip-curbs-132859592.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia (NVDA) stock jumped 3.7% midday Wednesday, extending its gain from the prior day, when shares rose nearly 6% and the AI chipmaker’s market cap surpassed $3 trillion for the first time since February.

The gains come as US chipmakers, including Nvidia, announced billions of dollars' worth of deals with Saudi Arabia during an investment forum attended by President Trump on Tuesday.

Nvidia said it will supply several hundred thousand of its AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s AI venture Humain over the next five years, beginning with the sale of one of its latest Grace Blackwell AI supercomputers using 18,000 of its advanced GB300 chips. Humain is a new AI venture owned by Saudi Arabia’s $925 billion Public Investment Fund and chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It was launched just a day ahead of Trump’s visit to the country.

Bank of America (BAC) analysts estimated the total value of the deal at $7 billion and raised its price target on Nvidia stock to $160 from $150 in a note to investors Wednesday morning.

Also bolstering Nvidia shares, a report from Bloomberg on Tuesday indicated the Trump administration may cut a deal to allow the United Arab Emirates to purchase "more than a million" of Nvidia's AI chips.

Fellow US chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) also unveiled deals to supply chips to Humain for its ambitious AI data center plans over the coming years. AMD’s deal was valued at $10 billion.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said the news is a good sign of demand for AI hardware.

“For investors worried about AI capex sustainability, we now have another deep pocketed customer willing and capable to spend large amounts of money on a clearly strategic push as Saudi Arabia attempts to position itself as a regional and global AI hub,” he wrote in a note to investors early Wednesday.

“While we shall see how much of the announced programs actually come to pass, Tuesday’s actions have the potential to act as support against fears of a capex peak.”

Investors have scrutinized whether US Big Tech companies can sustain unprecedented levels of spending on AI infrastructure while companies are still figuring out how to fully monetize their AI products.

Separately, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), a server maker that uses Nvidia’s AI chips and server designs, announced a $20 billion deal with Saudi Arabian data center company DataVolt. That stock, which closely tracks with Nvidia’s moves, rose 16% on Tuesday and more than 18% midday Wednesday.

The news came as Saudi Arabia and President Trump touted a $600 billion deal for the kingdom and companies based there to purchase US technology, weapons, and infrastructure. But so far, the investments unveiled Tuesday total much less than $600 billion.

Nvidia stock’s jump on Wednesday helped inch shares closer toward positive territory for 2025 after a rocky several months. Shares were down 3% year to date at Tuesday’s close.

The AI chipmaker’s Saudi Arabia deal helped brighten Wall Street’s outlook for the company's sales abroad just after Trump banned exports of its chips for China. However, his administration looked to ease Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia’s exports to the rest of the world (including the Middle East).

The Department of Commerce on Tuesday announced that it had initiated the rescission of Biden’s so-called AI diffusion rule, which was meant to halt the smuggling of US AI chips, namely Nvidia’s, to China.

The department also said that “using Huawei Ascend chips anywhere in the world violates US export controls.” Huawei’s latest Ascend chips are reportedly competitive with Nvidia’s prior-generation Hopper chips.

Bernstein’s Rasgon said, “Huawei chips are not made in the US nor exported from there, and (purportedly at least) are manufactured without using US technology (so it is not clear how customers using them would be in violation of US export restrictions).”

“Nevertheless, such an interpretation of the rules would clearly make it more difficult for Huawei to sell Ascend chips to customers outside of China, as well as seemingly open up Chinese users of the parts to more of the US’s regulatory hammers,” he added. “This is probably a positive for NVDA and other US AI names, though it remains to be seen how China might respond.”"

MY COMMENT

Now if only the ridiculous financial media could stop BAD MOUTHING NVDA at every turn and fear-mongering everything the company does. Probably the greatest company of the past 20 years.....and....they have to fight the media NOISE every day.

 

COST stock seems to be range bound in the neighborhood of about $1000 over the past months. THEY NEED TO SPLIT THE STOCK. The company is....BOOMING....but the stock is having problems going beyond a little over $1000 in spite of all the good news.

GREAT management at COST...but...they need to wake up on this one issue.

 

Even though the SP500 kind of PETERED OUT today at the close....the NASDAQ and my account gave me a BIG gain again today. I had four stocks in the RED....HD, COST, AMZN, and AAPL.....but still closed at a high for the day today.

I also BEAT the SP500 today by 1.77%.

NOW.....we move on to PPI day tomorrow at about 8:30AM.

 

I believe that PLTR hit a new ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH today. Much very positive coverage.

Palantir stock makes history as analysts revamp price target

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-makes-history-analysts-160300419.html

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is Attractive, Based on the “Rule of 40,” Prominent Investor Says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-attractive-134858033.html

Is Palantir Technologies (PLTR) the Best High Volume Stock to Buy Now?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-pltr-best-high-123541955.html

MY COMMENT

As a shareholder I love it.....but....there is the PE issue.....which is a big issue. Time will tell if the company is able to grow earnings into the PE and if they can add a massive amount of new business to justify the positive coverage.

It is STILL a highly risky stock.....and....NOT FOR EVERYONE....but....I love the momentum and believe that ALL the recent publicity and extreme positivity and bravery of the CEO and management will lead to a HUGE gain of new customers and business. it is refreshing how the management at this company acts and works with confidence and passion.....and seems to be able to back it up.

 

Before jumping on the PLTR bandwagon....you might want to look at the PE portion of this evaluation.

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC-A (PLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis

https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/PLTR/fundamental-analysis

NOT a stock for those that can not stand RISK.

 

Poor Boeing.....they still totally SUCK. although the stock is well off the 52 week low of $128.88. Regardless of the stock price......their performance as a business is TERRIBLE.....their management is TERRIBLE.

I doubt that I will EVER consider buying this stock again.

 

The poor "experts"......and so called financial Journalists.....usually WRONG.

US wholesale prices dropped 0.5% last month despite President Trump's tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wholesale-prices-dropped-0-124312090.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale prices dropped unexpectedly in April for the first time in more than a year despite President Donald Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports.

The producer price index — which tracks inflation before it hits consumers — fell 0.5% last month from March, the first drop since October 2023 and the biggest in five years. Compared to a year earlier, producer prices rose 2.4% last month, decelerating from a 3.4% year-over-year gain in March, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core wholesale prices dipped 0.4% from March and rose 3.1% from a year earlier.

Economists had forecast that producer prices rose modestly in April.

Services prices fell 0.7%, the biggest drop in government records going back to 2009, on shrinking profit margins at wholesalers and retailers. Wholesale food prices fell 1%, and egg prices plunged 39%, though they are still up nearly 45% from a year ago because of bird flu.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose just 2.3% last month from April 2024 — smallest year-over-year gain in more than four years.

Economists have predicted that Trump’s tariffs would drive up prices, and many expect the impact to show up in June or July.

Still, Trump’s tariffs are ever-changing, so it’s hard to forecast their economic impact. On Monday, for instance, Trump unexpectedly agreed to a massive de-escalation of his trade war with China — third-biggest source of U.S. imports — by scaling back his taxes on Chinese products to 30% from 145%; China slashed its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%.

"Tariffs have yet to make much of a mark on pricing, though it’s likely just a matter of time,'' Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary."

MY COMMENT

I always love to see the experts wrong again. I notice that there is little reporting of this data since no one is able to fear-monger it for clicks.

BUT....they never give up....thus....the coverage story-line....."well, just wait a month or two". NO....it will not happen, in fact much of the tariff stuff will be done in a month or two. In any event the markets have adapted to and moved on from tariffs.

This data shows a BIG drop. Sorry...economists and FED.

 

Other data that is good for future FED cuts....or at least should be if the FED is paying attention.

US retail sales barely rose last month after consumers splurged in March to front-run tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-barely-rose-124243365.html

US weekly jobless claims unchanged amid stable labor market

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unchanged-124741953.html

MY COMMENT

The FED needs to shut up and do their job before it is too late. MOST of the economic data is just fine to start to do some rate cuts over the next 2-4 months. the data is very clear......and....holding rates where they are right now is an anchor on the economy.

It would also help if the FED would cut the......"cute"...."coy"....routine and give the markets and the economy good guidance where they are headed. they now have plenty of data to do so.

 

I have been ignoring it to talk a bit of economics....but back to the real world.....here is the WMT earnings today.

Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Walmart beat first-quarter earnings estimates but fell just short of sales expectations.
• Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said consumers could start to see higher prices as soon as later this month.
• The company said its e-commerce business was profitable for the first time during the quarter.

Walmart on Thursday fell just short of quarterly sales estimates, as even the world’s largest retailer said it would feel the pinch of higher tariffs.

Even so, the Arkansas-based discounter beat quarterly earnings expectations and stuck by its full-year forecast, which calls for sales to grow 3% to 4% and adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share for the fiscal year. That cautious profit outlook had disappointed Wall Street in February. Wall Street was also underwhelmed by the results Thursday, as shares fell more than 4% in morning trading.


Walmart also marked a milestone: It posted its first profitable quarterfor its e-commerce business both in the U.S. and globally. The business has benefited from the growth of higher-margin moneymakers, including online advertising and Walmart’s third-party marketplace.

In an interview with CNBC, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said tariffs are “still too high” – even with the recently announced agreement to lower duties on imports from China to 30% for 90 days.

“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb,” he said. “It’s more than any supplier can absorb. And so I’m concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices. You’ll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June.”

Walmart said it expects net sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5% for the fiscal second quarter, but declined to provide guidance for earnings per share or operating income growth because of fluctuating U.S. tariff policy.

Here is what the big-box retailer reported for the three-month period that ended May 2 compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: 61 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected
• Revenue: $165.61 billion vs. $165.84 billion expected

In the fiscal first quarter, Walmart’s net income fell to $4.49 billion, or 56 cents per share, compared with $5.10 billion, or 63 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Revenue rose about 2.5%from $161.51 billion in the year-ago period,but had a 1% headwind from lapping leap day in the year-ago period. Yet it marked Walmart’s first quarterly revenue miss since February 2020.

Comparable sales – an industry metric also known as same-store sales – jumped 4.5% for Walmart U.S. and 6.7% for Sam’s Club, excluding fuel.

E-commerce sales increased 21% in the U.S., marking the 12th straight quarter of double-digit gains. Global e-commerce sales jumped 22% year over year.

Walmart is often seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. consumer because of its thousands of stores and large customer base that cuts across age, income and region. Rainey told CNBC that Walmart has not seen a noticeable shift in consumer behavior from previous quarters.

“They’re discerning. They’re mindful. They’re maybe a little concerned about possible looming price increases, but their behaviors largely have not changed. They’re still looking for value,” he said.

Sales in the quarter were “a little choppy,” Rainey said. He said results in February fell below the company’s expectations, March results came in closer to what Walmart expected and then April “was a lot stronger.” So far, he said May “feels a lot more like April” with sales patterns.

Average ticket, or the amount that a customer spent, rose 2.8% year over year. Customer transactions increased 1.6% compared with the year-ago period in the U.S. Yet despite the growth of purchases across Walmart’s store and website, that marked the fourth straight quarter of deceleration for the metric.

Trade remains a major wild card for the company — and the retail industry — as companies debate how much inventory to order and place bets about where tariff levels will ultimately land. About a third of what Walmart sells in the U.S. comes from other parts of the world, with China, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam and India representing its largest markets for imports, Rainey said on the company’s earnings call Thursday.

CEO Doug McMillon said on the company’s earnings call that tariffs on China, in particular, create the greatest cost pressure. He said imports from the country account for high volume in categories such as toys and electronics.

He said Walmart is focused on keeping food prices low, but said tariffs on countries like Costa Rica, Peru and Colombia have put pressure on the prices of bananas, avocados, coffee and roses. In some cases, he said, it’s keeping prices where they are — even if that means absorbing higher costs — such as keeping the price consistent for flowers at Sam’s Club on Mother’s Day.

In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Rainey said the company is working with vendors to try to keep prices down. But, he added “this is a little bit unprecedented in terms of the speed and magnitude in which the price increases are coming.”

Still, he said, Walmart plans to “play offense” by keeping its price gaps below competitors. He said the company will absorb some of the higher prices from tariffs and expects suppliers will, too.

He said Walmart has not canceled any orders, but has reduced the size of some purchases. For example, he said, it is buying less of items that it anticipates may sell less because of a higher tariff-related price.

Walmart’s quarterly report kicks off a wave of sales updates from major retailers. Target , Home Depot and Lowe’s
are all scheduled to report quarterly earnings next week, as investors and economists gauge the strength of the U.S. consumer and the impact of higher tariffs on the retail industry.

Unlike some of its peers, Walmart has advantages that have helped it better weather an uncertain economy and woo a more selective U.S. consumer. As the nation’s largest grocer, it sells food and necessities that drive steadier store and website traffic. And as a well-known value player, it can use lower prices to attract even middle- and upper-income customers who want to pay less. Already, Walmart has attracted wealthier shoppers with faster deliveries, store remodels and a wider assortment of brands.

Plus, the discounter has grown profits faster than sales by looking beyond retail to newer business, including advertising and its subscription-based membership program Walmart+. Sales for its U.S. advertising business, Walmart Connect, increased 31% year over year in the first quarter, excluding the Vizio smart TV business that it acquired last year.

As of Wednesday’s close, Walmart shares are up about 7% so far this year. That outpaces the roughly flat performance of the S&P 500 during the same time period. Shares of Walmart closed at $96.83 on Wednesday, bringing the company’s market value to about $775 billion."

MY COMMENT

I would call this an "adequate" beat or a minor beat. Treading water till next quarter.

 

As an "OLD" person this is of interest to me. I will save you time reading....the article estimates.....2.4%. Sounds about right.

What Will the Social Security COLA Raise Be for 2026?
Get ready for the rate increase to Social Security benefits, which will start in January 2026.

https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/social-security-cola-raise

 

I dont buy the RED open today. I believe we have a good shot at a GREEN or MIXED close as the markets mature into the day. Earnings continue to be good. WMT had a good report...even if a bit mild. ALL the economic data is good especially the PPI.

BUT.....we have had such a HUGE run up this week....the markets might just decide to take the day off today....of at least sleep in.

 

HERE is the current FED......in my mind I see them as borderline......OUT OF TOUCH. I will put it that way rather than get into other reasons for their INTENTIONAL refusal to say or do anything positive.

Fed's Powell says US may be entering period of more frequent and persistent 'supply shocks'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...t-and-persistent-supply-shocks-124005846.html

MY COMMENT

Just a bunch of typical FED blather....although worse than ever. They just REFUSE to acknowledge good economic news in terms of inflation. Unfortunately I think they are now....borderline DELUSIONAL. I think POWELL is just going to stall and sit through his remaining months of his term.....and do as little as possible.

Too bad for the USA. We deserve better....but probably will not get it.

Remember....this is the same FED that just sat through MASSIVE stimulus of the economy into the face of inflation over the past few years....without a single comment.......and......numerous rate cuts.

 

Tired and boring markets today. I start the day in the RED with only three of nine stocks UP. COST, HD, and MSFT.

WELL......you have to start somewhere. AND....being a rose colored glasses perma-bull.......a long term investor....at least one third of my stocks are green.