The Long Term Investor

To continue some of the above.....the markets are now so focused on opinion and short term BS.....that even a great inflation and economic report does NOTHING.

 

WHATEVER.....another day of good economic and investing news.....IGNORED in the markets. SO....I will just go away and wait for the markets to either wake up and make some progress today.....or.......do nothing. Either way we will close out yet another week at the end of the day today.

 

I am surprised to see my old friend and money maker.....Phillip Morris....in the list above. There must be some real smoking and vaping going on around he world.

 

Thank goodness for PLTR and COST today. They are making me some good money...even though I have more stocks down than up at the moment.

Of course.....NVDA is now pushing toward a loss of $3 today.....at this rate we will.....soon.... wash out ALL positive impact of the GREAT earnings beat one day ago.

A perfect example of what I was talking about earlier in the day.

 

Short term idiocy.

NVDA close the day after earnings.......$139.19.
NVDA at this moment today....$135.80.
NVDA close pre-earnings on May 28, 2025.....$134.81.

Did earnings happen? Did I dream it all?

The philosophical question....if GREAT earnings happen and now one cares....did they actually happen?

 

Seeing the markets ignore good news today and thinking back about the markets of the past 5-10 years and the ESCALATING OBSESSION with the short term story lines....true or not....it all shows the INSANITY of the short term. It is also a pretty good commentary of where we are now in culture and society.

Besides focusing on the LONG TERM....versus the short term......I am also all about.....THE BIG PICTURE.

We are NOW so focused on the tiny picture and micro-pieces of earnings, results, the economy, etc, etc, etc.......that we cant see what is right in front of our faces. What counts in business and investing is.....THE BIG PICTURE......THE WHOLE.....versus all the tiny little pieces.

At least that is how it used to be.

The TOTALITY of my investing thesis and view is the......LONG TERM BIG PICTURE....for the companies that I own and business in general.

That is why I am fully invested all the time for the long term.

It is very easy for investors to get OBSESSED with the TINY slices of information and data. A LOSING strategy.

People get so caught up in every little detail....especially the negative.....they turn the positive into a negative though MICRO focused thinking.....they have ZERO ability to see or appreciate the long term or the whole picture. This leads to a market timing and a trading mentality. it leads to long term investing FAILURE.

I let the MANAGEMENT of the companies that I invest in deal with all the day to day "stuff" and the constant media slicing and dicing of information and data. That is why I want my companies to have GREAT MANAGEMENT.

I dont care about how a business gets to success or the micro-details of what and how they are doing.....I want to see the BIG PICTURE RESULTS.

The difference between BIG PICTURE thinking and SMALL thinking....is a huge factor in investing success. ALL the stocks that I own are constantly trashed and derided day after day....there is always someone out there telling us why things are not looking good for them....or why some little bit of news is negative...etc, etc, etc.. YET....they defy it all and succeed......HUGELY.....over time. Of course at the same time....they are the GREATEST and most successful companies in the world.

it is the blind men trying to describe an elephant. It is the science telling us that it is impossible for a bumble bee to fly (a myth). it is the constant negativity. It is the constant obsession with the performance art and soap opera....which is the day to day markets and especially the day to day financial media.

it is ALSO the inability.....apparently.....of modern humans to be divisive.....ignore the herd.....be willing to act and trust what you know to be true in spite of all the NOISE.

 

As to the above....we are NOW seeing NVDA stock ....LOWER....than the close before earnings. Thanks....slice and dice.....thinkers and profit takers.

NVDA now $133.33

NVDA the day prior to earnings $134.81

 

SO....NVDA ended up today at less than a dollar above it's pre-earnings price. BUMMER....what a waste.

AND...I ended slightly in the RED today. PLTR and COST were BIG for me on the green side. I got beat by the SP500 by....0.15% today.

Moving on.

 

The week that was.

DOW year to date (-0.29%)
DOW five days +1.79%

SP500 year to date +0.74%
SP500 five days +2.24%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +1.74%
NASDAQ 100 five days +2.58%

NASDAQ year to date (-o.87%)
NASDAQ five days +2.64%

RUSSELL year to date (-7.41%)
RUSSELL five days +2.59%

I ended the week with my entire account at year to date.....+2.16%. Last week my entire account was at.....(-0.05%). A good week.

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

 

I like this little article.

Why This Stock Market Makes So Many of Us Want to Scream
In these volatile times, it’s no wonder some investors are on the sidelines—and feeling stuck there. Here’s how to overcome your fear.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...-many-of-us-want-to-scream-fffd75d4?st=oeLZJs

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)



"Most investors have felt FOMO, fear of missing out. Nowadays, many are feeling the opposite.

In April, turmoil over President Trump’s tariffs drove U.S. stocks down 12% in four days. Some investors bailed out, worried Trump’s policies would overturn decades of agreements that helped global trade thrive.

Others had gotten out even earlier, either in advance of the second Trump presidency or because they thought back-to-back double-digit annual gains, like those U.S. stocks earned in 2023 and 2024, weren’t sustainable.

Now, markets have erased April’s losses after Trump backtracked on several tariffs and a court decision Wednesday cast doubt over his trade-war plan. That has many people wondering if they should be more fully invested.

Their paralyzing dilemma: They aren’t sure when or how to do that.

“I don’t have FOMO,” says Michael McCowin, an investor in Madison, Wis. “I have FOGI: fear of getting in.”

In his individual retirement account, where he does most of his investing, McCowin got out of stocks by early last year, as the S&P 500’s return of 26.3% in 2023 was followed by nearly an 11% gain in just the first quarter of 2024.

Feeling FOGI can make you feel like an old fogey even if you’re nowhere near McCowin’s age of 86. McCowin is a former chief investment officer at Wisconsin’s pension board, which manages the retirement assets of public employees in the state.

So he isn’t a naive or impulsive investor. But, he says, his FOGI is a strong “gut feel.”

What, specifically, is McCowin afraid of? “Getting in too early,” he says, before the market hits bottom.

“I probably went too far by going all to cash,” he adds. “I do believe we’re on the cusp of what could be a very significant downturn, and if that happens I’ll be prepared for it. And if it doesn’t, I’m collecting 4% to 4.5% [on cash] and that’s more than enough for me.”

McCowin emphasizes that he would never advise his grandchildren to do what he did, as they have decades of wage-earning ahead of them to help cushion market crashes. And I don’t think his moves are advisable for most people. But his FOGI does remind us that investors often forget to ask: What am I afraid of?

A shift like McCowin’s is “not about mitigating risk, it’s about mitigating regret,” says Meir Statman, a finance professor at Santa Clara University who studies the psychology of investing.

“The fear of getting back in is the fear of feeling really stupid,” says Statman. If the market goes up before you get back in, “you’ll have to buy stocks back at a higher price and say, ‘God, why did I ever sell?’” If it goes down after you get back in, you’ll kick yourself over that, too.

Let’s put the market’s recent moves in longer-term perspective.

Since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 has lost between 5% and 10% 63 times, and it has dropped between 10% and 20% 25 times, according to Sam Stovall of CFRA, an investment-research firm. It’s gone down at least 20% 14 times; three of those were epic losses of 40% or more.

In the worst declines of at least 40%, the downdrafts lasted an average of 23 months, and stocks took an average of 58 months—just under five years—to gain back their losses in full. (These figures don’t include the reinvestment of dividends, which would have shortened the recovery times.)


One advantage of April’s turbulence is that it’s so fresh in your mind, it’s hard to kid yourself about what you believed a few weeks ago.

Hindsight bias, the human tendency to believe that our past predictions were much more accurate than they turned out to be, fools investors all the time.

This time, though, you can probably admit it: Those first few days, as Trump slapped huge tariffs on the rest of the world and markets reeled, you leaped to the conclusion that the global economy had been irreversibly disrupted. Like most investors, you probably underestimated how resilient and adaptable people, companies, markets and governments are.

The other advantage of the market’s April stumble was that it happened so fast. In four epic weeks, stocks plunged, then bounced back. For all the S&P 500’s heaving around, it’s up 1% in 2025.

So you can’t feel the fear of getting in if you never had time to get out.

That’s a blessing, because market timing is much harder than it seems. As John Montgomery, founder of Bridgeway Capital Management in Houston, points out, getting out of stocks before a crash is only a fraction of what you need to do as a successful market timer.

You have to be right about your economic forecast, when it will begin to take hold and when it will end. You also have to be correct about when and how the stock market, interest rates and other variables will respond.

“You have at least four opportunities to get it wrong,” says Montgomery, and “if you’re off by only a couple of months, that can destroy any chances of making money.”

If, like McCowin, you did get out, then the best way to overcome your FOGI is by taking baby steps. Set up an automatic investment plan to transfer a fixed amount of money from your bank or other cash holdings into a stock fund or brokerage account. Spread these transfers out in equal monthly increments over at least a year.

That should reduce your fears of buying back all your stocks at a higher price than you sold them for, or of buying too much right before a crash. What’s more, you reduce the risk of being tempted to think you know exactly when to get back in."

MY COMMENT

The person given as an example above is a good example of not trusting the probabilities and the markets. of course he is 86 years old...so that is a big factor. BUT...he has now locked in a big capital gains tax....assuming he had a gain.

The most simple and smart choice for "ME"....invest for the long term and stay fully invested all the time. I can stand to sit out the once in a while...bear market. And...I might bitch about the day to day NOISE....but....I can stand to sit through all the short term BS.

 

I also like this little article....perfect for GEN-Z.

Opinion: Hey, Gen Z: Retiring rich is easier than you think
Start early, finish first

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...h-is-easier-than-you-think-f6d08b55?st=9ZDDJn

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"What do young people actually learn in schools these days? Maoist dogma? Finger painting? Anything at all?

This question comes up yet again following the news that just 19% of Generation Z — fewer than 1 in 5 — understands the magic of mathematical compounding and how it can affect their finances.

This nugget comes from a new survey of just over 2,500 Gen Z individuals at least 18 years old and with at least $10,000 in investible assets. It was conducted by the Harris Poll on behalf of the Nationwide Retirement Institute.

I am probably just being an old curmudgeon and unfair to schools. But I was probably no older than 10 when a teacher taught us about compounding using the famous fable about the man who invented chess. I assumed everyone had learned it.

In case you never heard it, the fable — or apocryphal story — is set in ancient India, where chess began. Supposedly the king was so delighted with the invention he promised the inventor anything he wanted. Cunningly, the inventor replied that he simply wanted rice: One grain on the first square, two on the second, four on the third, doubling the amount each square until all 64 were filled. The king was baffled and thought this request was trivial — until he discovered what happened when you compound numbers. By the time he was halfway through the chess board he had to supply over two billion grains of rice, and by the final rows the numbers are incomprehensible. (By square 64, the figure is 9,223,372,036,854,780,000.)

The story was a good way of drumming into the heads of children the power of compounding. It’s something everyone should understand at a basic, visceral level.

If you’re young — even if you’re middle-aged, actually — compounding is why saving for your retirement is, to be honest, a piece of cake. It’s only for those of us who are older that it becomes trickier, with risks of bear markets and lost decades.

In a nutshell: If you’re young, throw some money into the stock market and just leave it there. Don’t check it or look at it. Don’t buy anything other than stocks, and use low-cost index funds. To maximize your diversification, consider a mixture of an equal-weighted U.S. fund (such as the iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ET)
and one or two international stock funds (such as the Vanguard FTSE Europe ET or the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ET.)

Ignore those who tell you to have all or nearly all your money in U.S. stocks, such as in just the S&P 500
or the Nasdaq Composite.
If I were in my 20s today, I’d do this with leverage, to maximize my long-term exposure to stocks even when I didn’t have much money.

The reason for doing this is that you will not need the money for many decades — if you are Gen Z, for 40 or 50 years — and over such long periods of time this strategy has never, ever failed.

There is some debate about what long-term return we should all expect from stocks. The number professionals look at is the so-called real return, meaning the return after deducting inflation. (If your investments go up 20% in a year, but consumer prices have also gone up 20%, you have gone nowhere in “real” terms.) Optimists say we should expect an average “real” return over the long term of 7% a year. Skeptics think the number may be closer to 5% or even 4%. Some people think it’s even lower.

Nobody knows for sure, but there’s one thing we do know: So long as the number is positive, you — like the inventor of chess — want to make this work for you for as long as possible.

Invest $10,000 today and even if you only end up earning an average of 4% a year, plus inflation, in 40 years’ time you’ll have about $50,000. Earn 7% and you’ll have $150,000. Over 50 years those numbers grow to $70,000 and $290,000. Compound this money for 64 years and you’ll have somewhere between $120,000 and $760,000. Remember, this is in today’s money — in other words, after accounting for inflation.

If I could write a letter to my 20-something self, I’d tell young me to buy stocks with almost every nickel I have.

Actually, I’d go further. If I were in my 20s today, I’d use leverage. I’d use index call options to increase my stock-market exposure. These are much easier to buy today than they were when I was young. With long-term, deep-in-the-money index options, I could double my exposure to the market pretty cheaply. (You can buy options through any regular brokerage account, but the technicalities are a topic for another day.)

Many advisers will tell you this is highly risky. They’re right, totally. Doubling your exposure means you will make or lose twice as much. If you do this and the market goes down 50% or more and stays down, you will lose your stake. But if I was in my 20s I’d be taking on this risk to minimize another: The danger that I’d have too little invested in stocks during my 20s.

The problem with investing in stocks is that to make that compounding work for us, we need to invest early and young, but we typically have bupkis and debt at that age. Not until we are in our 40s or even 50s do we have a lot of savings. By then, the power of compounding is dramatically lowered. And by then, we are also much less able to ride out a long bear market because we are nearer retirement, meaning we probably need to keep plenty of money in cash or bonds. That means our returns are even lower.

There is no “risk-free” life strategy. It’s just a question of balancing risks. The way I figure it, if I was in my 20s and used options to maximize my market returns, even if I got initially wiped out by a long and devastating bear market, I wouldn’t have lost much at all. It would mean that in three or five years’ time, when my options expired worthless, the market would be down, shares would be much cheaper and I’d be able to buy more at lower prices. And I figure I’d have more money to invest at 30 than I did at 35, and more at 35 than at 30.

Whether you want to do this is up to you. I can only tell you what I’d do if I was in my 20s with my own money. You pays your money and you makes your choice.

But either way, if you are in Gen Z, the power of compounding should be your best friend — if not forever, then at least for the next 50 years."

MY COMMENT

FIRST.....I do NOT agree with the above in terms of using leverage or the recommended funds. If it was me I would use a simple SP500 ETF as a GEN-Z beginning investor. Investing in such a fund should give you your first million. BUT....that is what "I" would do...."YOU" have to decide what you want to do for yourself.

 

When my son was a JR in High School I went in and talked to his "money management class" about investing. I used the exact example above to illustrate the POWER and growth that comes with COMPOUNDING. I used a chess board and a penny on the first square.

 

Lets hope so....this is way past due. If or when it happens it will generate great PR and BUZZ for the stock and company. It will reward long time shareholders. It will make the shares more affordable and attractive. NO....i dont care about fractional shares.....people dont want to ivnest hundreds of dollars and see less than one share in their account...it is a drag on the stock. AND.....I dont buy the old stuff that a stock split is a neutral event.....with an ICONIC company....I have never seen a stock split that did not make money for the share holders....either leading up to the split and/or after the split.

Costco Stock Has a Big Price Tag. Some Investors Are Eyeing a Rare Split

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-stock-big-price-tag-090000964.html

 

By the way COST stock is near an all time high. It is currently at $1040. The all time high of $1078 was achieved in February of 2025.