The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I also like this breakdown of the recent COST earnings.

    Costco Wholesale sees 8% net sales increase in Q3 FY25

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-wholesale-sees-8-net-123356292.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Costco Wholesale has disclosed a net sales increase of 8% to $61.96bn for the third quarter (Q3) of fiscal 2025, up from $57.39bn in the same period of the previous year.

    Comparable sales metrics showed a rise of 5.7% with an adjusted increase of 8% when excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange. E-commerce comparable sales experienced significant growth at 14.8%.

    Gross margin for Costco stood at 11.25% - an improvement of 41 basis points compared to the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 and a rise of 29 basis points after adjusting for gasoline price impacts.

    Net income for the quarter was reported at $1.9bn or $4.28 per diluted share - a growth of 13.2% compared to $1.68bn or $3.78 per diluted share reported in the same quarter of the previous year.

    The company explained in its most recent earnings call that this performance came despite facing challenges including a last-in, first-out (LIFO) accounting charge of $130m within the quarter. Operating income was also adversely affected due to an accrual adjustment of $40m. This adjustment was necessary to account for the accrued increase in employee vacation days that were part of the employee agreement established in March 2025.

    Q3 membership income exhibited a growth rate of 10.4% and when excluding foreign exchange impacts, it increased by 11.4%. The company maintained a high worldwide membership renewal rate at 90.2% and reported a total paid membership growth of 6.8%.

    Total cardholders now number 142.8 million with a growth rate of 6.6%. Executive memberships have reached 37.6 million and executive members account for 73.1% of total sales.

    For the first 36 weeks of the fiscal year, net sales rose 8.2% to $185.48bn from $171.44bn the previous year.

    Over the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2025, net income totalled $5.49bn or $12.34 per diluted share, an increase from $5.01bn or $11.27 per diluted share during the previous equivalent period.

    Costco president and CEO Ron Vachris said in the earnings call: “We're remaining agile as a situation with tariffs evolves, while also supporting the commitments we've made with our long-term suppliers. As an example of this, during the third quarter, we rerouted many goods sourced from countries with large tariff exposure to our non-US markets. In the US, we pulled forward some items that we had planned for the summer and sourced additional locally produced goods to reduce tariff impacts and ensure that we were in stock. Actions such as these are allowing us to continue to provide great values for our members, while also delivering value to our shareholders.”

    Costco operates a global network of 905 warehouse locations. There are currently 624 warehouses across the US and Puerto Rico, along with international locations.

    Costco continues to expand its digital footprint with e-commerce platforms active in Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Taiwan and the US.

    In early 2025, Costco Teamsters voted in favour of a strike action in response to what they consider to be unfair contract terms, despite the company reporting record profit levels."

    MY COMMENT

    The breakdown above shows the result of a company operating at a very high level with GREAT management.

    I LOVE the membership growth of 10-11%. That is huge money in the bank.

    NOW.....PLEASE.....do a 4 for one or a five for one split.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This trade "stuff" is TOTAL NOISE. Nothing but an excuse.......and....fear-mongering. It will be totally forgotten soon.....2-6 months from now.

    But it continues to drive the day to day markets. Unfortunately this sort of "stuff" has now taken over the short term markets. Who cares.....traders? Market speculators? AI trading systems?

    This is all soap opera....all performance art. WHATEVER.

    Dow falls 300 points as global trade tensions rise to start the new month

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    Besides this old story-line.....NOTHING....is going on today.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I start today with two stocks GREEN....COST and NVDA. My two largest positions.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In my area the real estate market is just siting in a stalemate. Sellers are not lowering prices and buyers are not buying. Now that school is out and we are in moving season we should see some movement in the markets as families relocate.

    We have about 90 active listings in my area....a bit below normal....but much better than last year. I went through all of them yesterday and the HIGH end of the market is DEAD.....virtually nothing pending. The lower to mid range of the market $580,000 to $900,000 is showing a bit more movement. The high end of the market in my little area of about 4000 homes tops out at about $10MILLION.

    In my immediate neighborhood we have two homes on the market for $2MILLION and one for $1.4MILLION. They have all been on the market now for at least 4 months.

    Mortgage rates spend another week stuck near 7%
    Rates followed Treasury yields modestly higher this week, averaging 6.89% on a 30-year loan.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-spend-another-week-stuck-near-7-160255570.html

    SORRY....potential buyers....these mortgage rates between about 5.5% to 7%......are totally NORMAL. You are NEVER going to see rates in the 2% to 4% range again....probably in your entire lifetime. Just deal with and suck it up.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I get so tired of seeing these sorts of stories and headlines. Every time....the CEO or other executive is simply following a pre-determeined plan to sell shares over a pre-announced time span. It is NOT news and does not signal anything of concern.

    This is simply needless fear-mongering and a grab for quick clicks.

    Jensen Huang Plans to Unload $800 Million in Nvidia Shares. Should You Sell Too?

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/02/jensen-huang-plans-to-unload-800-million-in-nvidia/
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am hoping for some good news this week....in terms of ART.

    I have five paintings being considered for a museum exhibition next spring. I was told that about the first week of June would be when the decision of what to include in the exhibition would be announced. I would be happy if I can get one or two pieces in.....although....it is possible that I will end up with none.

    I also have a couple of smaller paintings that will be in a different exhibition next April.

    I try to work my art into as many exhibitions as possible. I like to build up the provenance and reputation of what I own. I also like to make art available for the public to see.

    The only down side is that when we have art in an exhibition we have to go for months with a blank wall.

    Prices on the sort of art that we collect......Western Art and Impressionistic American Art in a particular category......is RED HOT right now in the market and at auction. I am not a speculator in art....but....it is a good thing to see that our entire collection could be sold for a nice profit. Of course we have no plans to sell anything.....and i suspect that some day our kids will keep ownership of the best items.

    I do continue to upgrade, upgrade, and upgrade our collection. Earlier this year I traded four paintings to a dealer for two paintings. the end result was a definite increase in the quality of what we own.

    We start each year with a line item in our budget for "Art". Our art budget is now exhausted for 2025.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As usual....the data continues to come it significantly on the side of FED cuts. As usual....the FED will do nothing.

    US construction spending falls in April on weakness in single-family housing projects

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-falls-april-143830147.html

    "U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in April, weighed down by a decline in outlays on single-family housing projects amid higher borrowing costs and a rising supply of unsold homes."

    Of course....as usual:

    "But spending on public construction projects increased 0.4%. State and local government spending rose 0.3%, while outlays on federal government projects shot up 2.7%."
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of the FED......and rate cuts.

    US manufacturing remains subdued in May; delivery times lengthening


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-remains-subdued-may-140741196.html

    "U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May and suppliers took longer to deliver inputs amid tariffs, potentially signaling looming shortages of some goods.

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI edged down to a six-month low of 48.5 last month from 48.7 in April. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy."


    MY COMMENT

    We are nowhere near a recession....but the majority of economic data continues to come in soft. BUT.....I anticipate only a single FED rate cut this year and would say it is just as likely that they will do ZERO.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW.....the BIG HAPPENING of the day so far.....I have now added a third stock that is in the GREEN....AAPL. Pretty sad when that is the big event of the day for me.

    BUT....being a greedy investor....I will take it. Plenty of market day left.

    There was LOTS of opening NOISE for us to get past at the open today. NONE of it significant....but on a slow market day it was enough to push the averages red. I dont see any real energy in the markets today....it is another dull, drifting, slow, boring day. In other words....NORMAL.

    As a long term investor you have to sit through a lot of days like today to get those big explosive gains that come out of nowhere.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of longer term gains.....something very simple....bu not mentioned enough on here.

    It is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to reinvest ALL capital gains and dividends. I choose to ALWAYS do so. Reinvesting is another HUGE driver of portfolio gains over the long term in addition to the explosive days.

    This.....reinvesting....is the GUTS of compounding. I have all the portfolios that I manage on automatic pilot when it comes to reinvesting. I want to get that money invested and working at the earliest possible moment.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BORING......so....I will move on for a while and let the inherent UPWARD BIAS of the markets have some time to take hold today.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEA.....I now have five stocks GREEN.....MSFT and AMZN have now joined AAPL, COST, and NVDA. At least for a few minutes.

    STILL.....BORING.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Now that we have cut through all the NOISE and BS of this morning...it has turned out to be a good market day. I am making some good money so far today....if....we can avoid the late day FADE over the last hour.

    I have now improved to six stocks GREEN and three RED. My RED are PLTR.....just slightly....and HD and GOOGL. I have good hope that PLTR will turn green by the close.

    Looking good for a Monday.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Like to bet on sports.....well....here comes your partner.....government....for their cut. Of course they will not help when you lose money......and....they get their cut whether you win or lose.

    Sports betting stocks slide after Illinois lawmakers approve tax hike

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/02/spo...fter-illinois-lawmakers-approve-tax-hike.html

    "Key Points
    • Shares of online sports betting platforms struggled Monday.
    • Illinois lawmakers passed a budget that included what one analyst described as a surprise tax increase on wagers."
    MY COMMENT

    They are NEVER happy they are a bottomless pit for your money. AND even than they always spend more than they actually have.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I start the week with money in my pocket.....well....my account.

    I had a good gain today. By the close PLTR DID in fact get into the green. That left me with only two RED stocks.....HD and GOOGL.

    I also beat the SP500 today by 0.45%.
     
    #24619 WXYZ, Jun 2, 2025 at 4:14 PM
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025 at 4:21 PM
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Amazingly the ONE share of PLTR that I bought at the open on 5-29-25.....after two market days.....is up by 5.34%.

    I should have mortgaged everything I own and bought 50 THOUSAND shares on last Thursday and sold them all just before the close today. I would have made about......I could have made over $330,000.

    WAIT.....you mean that would not have been a good idea? WTF

    The POWER of hindsight thinking and logic....after.....I know there was a $6.69 gain in two days.

    Kind of like betting on heads just because the last flip was tails. WAIT....you mean that does not work either. WTF.
     
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