Well this is nice of them....as if they really have any ability to predict a recession....much less as a percentage probability. Goldman Sachs trims US recession probability to 30% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-trims-us-recession-134821147.html They cut their prediction from 35% to 30%. Seems very specific. This is not really relevant at all....I just find it interesting how all these predictions come into play every day in the media. I wonder why we dont see a headline saying......GOLDMAN SAYS US PROBABILITY of NO RECESSION IS 70%. It is interesting to me that the financial media prefers to put up a headline based on......"POSSIBILITY"......ie: 30%....versus the.... "PROBABILITY".... inherent in this prediction of.....70%. I also find it interesting that the headline uses the word...."PROBABILITY"....in discussing something that is certainly NOT a probability at 30%. Can you tell it is a boring and mild/slow day in the markets? I am entertaining my self with little minor comments and posts. LOL.
Ok enough of this foolishness. I will sit for a while and see if anything happens in the markets. BORING.
Yes, the financial media and media in general seem to operate with their own specific narratives and it is simply a headline driven frenzy from day to day. Although, I give them some credit for knowing their "customers." Most people seem to want and need this type of stuff anymore. We have been almost programmed to accept that it is "normal." We seem to think that whatever occurs in a single day or short period of time sets the pace for the foreseeable future. People hang on and react to every detail, only for it to be replaced tomorrow or next week with something else. We yearn for answers today about things that are unknowable and act as if once we have read what we want to believe that somehow it is all known and predictable. Then we wake up tomorrow only to chase some other topic tossed out there. What is really going to matter to those beginning and continuing their investing journey is consistency. Consistency in your savings rate, your contribution rates to the plan, maintaining solid employment, managing your debt wisely, and using those things to fuel your long term plan. Those things will matter more than anything the market does today or tomorrow. Let alone even next week or month. Whether it is a PPI or CPI report, a jobs report, a sentiment survey, FED update, tariff headline, some pundit crowing about any topic, or the movement of your favorite stock going up, down, or sideways in a short time. While those things have their own interesting moments, they are really irrelevant in the time we are considering them. They are short bursts of information with little known meaning in the long term. Sure, some of those things could have some meaning further down the road I suppose, but that is not how most people use or even view the information. I think we can suffer from too much information. You can take any day or week and see the vast amount of this information. Who remembers three weeks ago? What value has this information provided to your long term plan? The consistency I spoke of above versus the short term information is really going to be the difference maker. Not the headlines, not the silly new report every week or month, and not the movement of a stock measured in short time periods. I say be careful taking in too much of it.
I now have a small gain that is moving toward being a medium term gain today. I have four stocks GREEN and five RED. Importantly for me NVDA is one of the green stocks for me right now. AMAZINGLY.....FOUR HOURS IN....ZERO articles on the CNBC.com....site on PPI. Not that I care since the data is in line with what I expected......and.....I dont put much weight on the inflation BS since I believe the FED target rate is IDIOTIC and unsupported by any fact. I am jumping around....but not much going on today at all of any import.......especially beyond a day. I find this interesting: US household wealth dropped in first quarter as tariff concerns hit stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-household-wealth-dropped-first-161416181.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "(Reuters) -U.S. household wealth fell at the end of the first quarter, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday, dragged down by a stock market rout that has since reversed course. The net worth of households and non-profit groups had declined to $169.3 trillion as of March 31, the Fed said in its quarterly U.S. financial accounts report, down from $170.9 trillion as of the end of last year. It was the first decline in household net worth since the third quarter of 2023. A slide in real estate values during the first quarter added to the equities-driven decline. The S&P 1500 Composite index, which encompasses the vast majority of the U.S. stock market, shed about $2.5 trillion in value in the first three months of 2025 as investors worried that President Donald Trump's tariffs could drive up inflation, send the economy into recession, or do both simultaneously. The drop in wealth may prove short-lived - the S&P 1500 is currently up about $1.2 trillion on a year-to-date basis and is essentially unchanged since Trump took office for a second time on January 20." MY COMMENT What a BIZARRE story and headline. First it shows that FALSE theories and opinions.....like the impending recession and Tariffs causing a huge jump in inflation....do have the power to drive the medium term markets. It does not matter that it is all simply OPINION NOISE......and more importantly....simply WRONG. The lesson.....IGNORE IT ALL and be a long term thinker. Second what I really find interesting is the SCARY headline......when the premise of the article.....a drop in household wealth is NOT TRUE. Yes it might have dropped......THREE MONTHS AGO, as of March 31....but that is the past....actually the distant past with what has gone on since than. REALITY is the final little sentence of the article: "The drop in wealth may prove short-lived - the S&P 1500 is currently up about $1.2 trillion on a year-to-date basis and is essentially unchanged since Trump took office for a second time on January 20." AND......ACTUALLY the SP500 is NOT....."essentially unchanged"....it is UP by 2.87% YTD. A DUMB mistake in the writing.....although cherry picking the start date of January 20....shows the inherent BIAS of the writer. It is also pretty much on track with what is anticipated for the second half of the year to be at least.....in my opinion...in the 8-12% range.....before adding the gain from dividends. Investors that were smart and long term and IGNORED IT ALL....are positive for the YTD. A very strange......irrelevant, stupid, and out of date.....current article that is the LEAD item....top of the page, right hand side....on the site it appears on. I could see this as news or an item of interest on about April 1 or 2.....but 2-3 months later......GIVE ME A BREAK. No wonder people that are not experienced or dont understand the power of long term investing have a hard time. WHATEVER......LOL.....LOL.
I am consistently raking up the medium size gains lately....another one today. i like the BIG gains...but these medium gains have a way of adding up if you can string enough of them together. I only had three stocks in the RED today....WMT, PLTR, and GOOGL. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.34%.
I will miss the markets tomorrow till after the close since I will be on my way to Dallas. Even after the close I will not be able to check my results since I will not have my "token" with me. I should be able to look at the results of my stocks and estimate if I have a gain or a loss. EVERYONE......DO WELL TOMORROW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
Here are the three reasons why tariffs have yet to drive inflation higher https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/12/her...riffs-have-yet-to-drive-inflation-higher.html LOVE this little article....for what I does not say. I will give you a forth reason....and probably the correct one that you would never consider. YOU are simply......WRONG AS USUAL.
To continue the above: China grants rare earth export permits after US trade talks, offers relief but uncertainty persists https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-grants-rare-earth-export-204102464.html I see something like........"but uncertainty persists"....tacked onto just about every little bit of positive news these days. Probable China trade deal.......but uncertainty persists. CPI comes in better than expected.......but uncertainty persists. PPI comes in better than expected......but uncertainty persists. Unemployment weekly data supports rate cuts......but uncertainty persists. Better than expected earnings.....but uncertainty persists. NVDA hits it out of the park with earnings......but uncertainty persists. What a waste of positive market moving news.....as the negative nancy's.......continue to harangue, disrespect and obscure every little bit of positive news with their negativity and negative spin. According to "AI".....here is the term negative Nancy....seems about right to me. "A "negative Nancy" is a derogatory term for a person who is excessively and disagreeably pessimistic.It describes someone who tends to focus on the negative aspects of situations and often expresses pessimism or discouragement. Key characteristics of a "negative Nancy": Overly pessimistic:They tend to see the worst in every situation. Often focuses on the negative:They tend to emphasize the downsides rather than the positives. May blame others:They may redirect blame or responsibility for negative outcomes. Critical:They frequently express negative opinions about people, places, and things. Discouraging:They tend to dampen the spirits of others with their negativity. "
The march toward a new ALL TIME HIGH for the SP500 continues. Today it closed at.......6045. The record high is.....6147. Only 1.7% to go. At the same time I have stocks like.....MSFT, PLTR, and NVDA,........ALL within just a few dollars of ALL TIME HIGHS. We are sitting pretty at mid year. EVERYTHING is all lined up for an EPIC last half of 2025. Although from what I see today.....I imagine that Israel......potentially soon.....taking out the Iranian nuclear program would rank as a pretty big short term BLACK SWAN. The THRILL of being a long term investor and being fully invested all the time.
From what I am hearing right now on the news.....I guess....... I called it above at about 4:40PM today. It appears that Israel IS going to take out the Iranian Nuclear program starting tonight and strikes are in fact in the process....right now. The impact on the markets will perhaps last a few days to a week. BUT.....if there are unanticipated complications.......the impact could be longer on the markets and the world. As with any BLACK SWAN EVENT....we will just have to wait and see. BE SAFE EVERYONE.......and.......LOGIC and RATIONAL THOUGHT is the name of the game with your investments in any kind of a...potential..... world event.
Oil prices and futures in the stock markets are showing the impact of what is going on in the Middle EAST in Iran. I would not consider the drop in the stock futures particularly significant at this moment.....we have seen similar drops many times this year.
I have time for a post or two before I head out to Dallas today. 3 Mistakes to Avoid When Investing for Retirement https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-mistakes-avoid-investing-retirement-28b678e8?st=ybzPP5 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Investors can be their own worst enemies when it comes to saving for retirement, but understanding common missteps can help you avoid making them. Studies show individual investors tend to underperform both the broad market and the individual funds they own. The average equity investor earned just 16.5% in 2024, compared with 25% for the S&P 500 index, according to a report this spring by Dalbar, an independent audit firm. Investment research firm Morningstar found last year that investors lost out on around 15% of their funds’ returns over the 10 years ended Dec. 31, 2023. This year’s volatility could drag the market down, and investors along with it. The stock market has recouped the nearly 20% losses that followed President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in early April, but it’s hardly out of the woods. If job growth slows, depressing consumer spending, shares could turn downward again. Here are some common investors missteps to watch out for. Doing Too Much From 2005 through 2024, seven of the S&P 500’s 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The steep market recovery this May also underscores how pulling your money out of the market after it drops will cause you to miss the recovery that follows. Morningstar found that individual investors fared the worst with sector funds—those that focus on a particular industry like utilities, consumer staples, or healthcare. The average dollar invested in the most volatile sector equity funds lagged the buy-and-hold return by more than seven percentage points per year. Rather than reactively buying sector funds, a better approach is to find an asset allocation you’re comfortable with and stay the course. “Less transacting appears to have conferred higher dollar-weighted returns than otherwise,” Morningstar said. Losing Sight of the Big Picture American workers hold an average of about 12 jobs between ages 18 to 56, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s a lot of 401(k) plans, and it’s easy to lose track. The federal government has established a lost-and-found database where you can search for 401(k) plans linked to your Social Security number. It’s often best to consolidate old 401(k) accounts by rolling them over into an individual retirement account. Not only will this streamline your paperwork, but it will also help you optimize your investments across accounts. If your current 401(k) is in a target-date fund —a professionally managed account whose asset mix gets more conservative as you approach your target retirement year—your IRA could complement that by allowing you to add assets like international stocks that might not be a big part of the target-date allocation. Forgetting About Fees Retirement plans aren’t free, but a U.S. Government Accountability Office report from 2021 found that 41% of 401(k) participants don’t know they pay any fees in their plan. The biggest component of retirement account fees are funds’ investment fees, which is generally expressed as a percentage and is deducted automatically from your assets, eating into returns. While you’re stuck with whatever plan your employer offers, you can still choose the lowest-cost options within it. Actively managed funds tend to have higher fees than passively managed funds, and studies find that few active managers consistently beat their benchmarks. Once you leave your job, your workplace might impose a former-employee fee if you decide to leave your 401(k) where it is. What’s more, if you leave a job with less than $7,000 in your 401(k), your employer is allowed after a certain time frame to force you out and into an IRA of their choosing that might have high fees." MY COMMENT YES...it is so SIMPLE. About all it takes to be a good nvestor is following the PROBABILITIES.....invest for the long term, avoid market timing, stay fully invested for the long term, invest in the BIG PICTURE, the BEST stocks and the BEST Index ETF's. BUT.....what is simple is made complex by your human BRAIN. Your brain will trick you....it will play on your emotions and your fears. Your brain will convince you to try investment strategies that are complex and do not work. Your brain will constantly try to convince you that doing things the SIMPLE way is dumb. Even after 55+ years of investing there are times that my brain tries to trick me....I can feel it....but I IGNORE it. I have developed an immunity to it.....I simply do the same things that I have done for life. I simply invest for the long term by being fully invested all the time in the most ICONIC BIG CAP GROWTH stocks and in the SP500 Index. I reinvest ALL capital gains and dividends. I invest for the LONG TERM.
I guess maybe I should look at the news more often....I didn't see this until late last night...LOL. I don't know....this seems more probable that it was going to occur than out out the blue yonder. The US was moving embassy staff out of the region for the past couple of weeks and Israel was already talking about doing their own thing with regard to Iran. Apparently they got tired of waiting on "deals." I wasn't overly surprised when I seen it had occurred. Of course, there is a decent chance we will get pulled into it. Nobody will be surprised if they strike any a number of our military in the region. Certainly not downplaying the event, it is a significant event.
To continue the above....here is a real question for consideration. What If Stocks Don’t Go Up in the Long Run? https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/06/what-if-stocks-dont-go-up-in-the-long-run/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A reader asks: 100 Years is a heartbeat in terms of the scale of human history. What are the odds that capital might become so bountiful and technological innovation so fast that stocks fall and stay underwater forever? I never hear mainstream (keep buying) advisors even entertain this possibility. This question was in response to one of the many market studies I’ve done over the years. I get variations of this question all the time — what if stocks for the long run isn’t meant to last? There’s plenty to cover here but first a history lesson. The entire idea of stocks for the long run is still relatively new. Investors certainly didn’t feel that way in the 1930s and 1940s after witnessing the stock market fall 85% during the Great Depression. Can you blame them? Plus, very few investors knew what the long-term returns in stocks even were before the 1960s. No one had the data. That is, until a VP at Merrill Lynch named Louis Engel stepped up to the plate. Engel was tasked with figuring out the long-term returns for the stock market so he could give Merrill’s brokers some ammo when talking to clients and prospects. No one really had the data in one place so Engel went to the Chicago School of Business who said they would perform the historical study if Merrill would fund the research. A group of professors were able to put together a dataset of NYSE-listed stocks from 1926-1959. The process took nearly four years to complete, which created what is now known as the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). They now had a long-term historical record of U.S. stock market returns, which were much better than most investors assumed. Despite that gargantuan crash in the depression, the U.S. stock market was up more than 2,700% in total from 1926-1959. That’s 10.3% per year. Just for fun I decided to look at the annual returns in the aftermath of that study: Pretty close. We have about 100 years of good stock market data, but we’ve only known about it for 65 years. I completely agree that this is a drop in the bucket in terms of our history as a species. Everyone would feel much more confident about historical market data and relationships if we were working with 1,000 or 10,000 years of data. However, even if we had a much longer history to study, the future would always have the same exact level of uncertainty. There is always the chance of a paradigm shift no one sees coming. Historical data is not perfect but what other choice do you have? The old saying, “I would rather be approximately right than precisely wrong,” seems to fit here. I’ve had plenty of people ask me about a Japan-like situation where stocks go nowhere for decades but this question sounds more like a Star Trek situation. I’m not a Trekkie but my general understanding of the series is that technology solved many big problems through abundance — poverty, disease, work, the environment, etc. — which allowed them to explore new galaxies and civilizations. Anything is possible, although I find it hard to believe that the biggest corporations in the world would sign up for technologies that essentially put them out of business. I understand why certain investors worry about the stock market breaking. It’s a scary possibility, but I don’t think it makes sense to waste your time worrying about it. Whatever the reason is, if the stock market doesn’t go up over the long haul you’re going to have much bigger problems than your portfolio. Your investments won’t matter. Also, let’s say you are trying to hedge against this doomsday scenario. What’s your plan? Bury your money in your backyard? Hoard bullets and gold bars? My baseline assumption is that human beings will strive to earn more money and better their station in life. Corporations will innovate and look for ways to increase profits. The economy will grow. Bad things will happen but the long run will see progress. Maybe these baseline assumptions will prove to be wrong in a dystopian future but I don’t see how you could possibly prepare for that situation short of building a bunker under your house. What’s the point of investing if you don’t think the future will be better than the past and present? The only way to ensure you will fail as an investor is to avoid investing in the first place." MY COMMENT I have been a long term fully invested person for my entire life. For most of that time I was NOT in step with how the majority of people invested or thought about investing. I have done lots of investing posting on message boards since about the mid 1990's. Through much of that time I was totally DERIDED for being a long term investor. I was harangued as a stupid "buy and hold" investor year after year. At the same time I was winning, and winning, and winning. NOW....for the first time in my life.....I am actually in the investing mainstream. Over the last 10-15 years investing for the long term has been recognized. I was lucky to have my mom as an example when I started investing. She inherited a stock portfolio of ICONIC BIG CAP companies from her parents in the early 1960's. She sat and held most of those stocks for the rest of her life. That portfolio was the early basis for my understanding of what works in the markets. Going forward....IF or WHEN....we destroy the long term markets.....well as said above: "Whatever the reason is, if the stock market doesn’t go up over the long haul you’re going to have much bigger problems than your portfolio. Your investments won’t matter. Also, let’s say you are trying to hedge against this doomsday scenario. What’s your plan? Bury your money in your backyard? Hoard bullets and gold bars?" I prefer to expect and count on what is said above: "My baseline assumption is that human beings will strive to earn more money and better their station in life. Corporations will innovate and look for ways to increase profits. The economy will grow. Bad things will happen but the long run will see progress."
OK.....I am out of here.....have a good day everyone. I would not spend a lot of time worrying about the Middle East. It appears to be a very minor....just a day or two....little BLACK MOSQUITO. I expect little to no impact on the markets.
