The Long Term Investor

A related story that ALSO reflects the stupidity of the current passive-aggressive FED to even consider a rate cut.

US manufacturing output barely rises in May

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-barely-rises-140716093.html

 

I dont see much of anything that is a negative to the markets today. It is basically the same day as yesterday when we had good gains. I believe there is very good potential for a nice day today....once we get past the opening skittishness...profit taking....and market consolidation and acceptance of all time highs.

 

I am starting the day today with EVERY stock in the RED. I have nowhere to go from here but UP.

In the above statement I am discounting the potential for the losses to snowball. The short term is CRAZY.

 

I have now improved to five stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. I have not looked at my account yet so I have no idea of how I am doing in terms of.....MONEY.

Here are my red stocks......AAPL, MSFT, PLTR, and HD. I am still hoping for good things today in the markets.

NOTHING is really going on although the media is HAMMERING away at the Iran conflict today and doing some fear-mongering of the USA getting involved. I dont particularly care one way or another.

If Iran wants to be a religious based state and continue....I have no problem with that....it is their business....as long as they can stop being terrorist state. On the other hand....it would be nice to see the Persian people control their own fate....with a clean start......and I believe......a good shot at being a BIG economic and cultural and social power in a new Middle East.

 

A worthless Tuesday for no particular reason. i ended with ALL stocks in the RED. BUT....I did happen to beat the SP500 today by....0.12%.

LETS DO BETTER TOMORROW.

 

HERE is some obscure information that I am sure the FED is aware of. Another bit of data that is yet another indicator that Tariffs are NOT going to trigger inflation......and....there is no reason to delay much longer on rate cuts.

U.S. Import Prices Remain Unchanged In May; Export Prices Decrease 0.09%.

06/17/2025

U.S. import prices recorded no change in May following a 0.1-percent advance in April. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.9 percent in May, after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. Over the past year, import prices rose 0.2 percent and export prices increased 1.7 percent.

https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

YES....Thursday is Juneteenth. A fairly new Federal Holiday. Although it has been known here in Texas for a long time.

"Early Juneteenth celebrations date back to 1866, at first involving church-centered community gatherings in Texas. They spread across the South among newly freed African-Americans and their descendants and became more commercialized in the 1920s and 1930s, often centering on a food festival. Participants in the Great Migration brought these celebrations to the rest of the country. During the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s, these celebrations were eclipsed by the nonviolent determination to achieve civil rights, but grew in popularity again in the 1970s with a focus on African-American freedom and African-American arts. Beginning with Texas by proclamation in 1938, and by legislation in 1979, every U.S. state and the District of Columbia has formally recognized the holiday in some way."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juneteenth

 

GOOD NEWS....for seniors. The upcoming Social Security cost of living raise is now projected at.....2.5%....for payments in 2026. We are about to enter the measuring months.....July, August, and September.

New analysis projects Social Security's COLA for 2026 will be higher than previous estimates
Concern grows over the government's ability to accurately measure inflation affecting retirees

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...itys-cola-2026-higher-than-previous-estimates

 

WHO CARES.....the days of Wall Street having any power over the retail investor are long over. They are constantly WRONG on many if not most issues. They always panic and sell every event. They are traders and speculators and market manipulators.

WALL STREET HATES THIS RALLY
STOCKS ARE BACK NEAR RECORD HIGHS. WALL STREET ISN'T EXACTLY BUYING IT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) (I used the headline of the site hosting the article)

"Stocks came under pressure Tuesday but continue to hover near record highs, staging a ferocious comeback since their April lows.

But despite the rally, investor sentiment remains cautious as markets contend with a wave of uncertainty ranging from Trump’s tariff rollout and its inflationary ripple effects to the Fed’s murky rate-cutting path and, most recently, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Even as consumer sentiment has begun to rebound from its early-year lows, investor positioning tells a different story.

Data from market research firms SentimenTrader, Ned Davis Research, and Vanda, cited by Charles Schwab, show that equity exposure remains below historical averages, with mutual funds, hedge funds, and retail traders slowly rebuilding their risk positions.

That caution was echoed in Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey released Tuesday, which showed a sharp drop in risk appetite with a net 28% of investors taking a more-cautious-than-normal level of risk in their portfolios.


(Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey)
The survey also revealed that equity allocations remain well below average, currently sitting one standard deviation below their long-term norm.

However, that caution, some strategists argue, may be more of a tailwind than a headwind for stocks.

"Sentiment can still be negative even with stocks back at all-time highs," Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance.

Gordon described the recent rally as "definitely still hated," but a dynamic that's not unusual following sharp, unexpected sell-offs.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, wrote in a recent client note that investors may be overlooking a stronger investment backdrop compared to early 2025, with more clarity on trade and tax policy and a potentially more dovish Fed.

"We’re so close to all-time highs, and yet investors are mostly negative still," he said. "This remains one of the most-hated rallies."

Strategists across Wall Street have also grown more bullish on stocks in recent weeks.

No fewer than 11 Wall Street firms lowered their S&P 500 targets amid the market sell-off in April, but at least eight of those have since raised their bets on where the index ends 2025.

The median S&P 500 target now sits at 6,100, signaling further upside potential.

While investors are participating in the rebound, Schwab's Gordon said the gains have been concentrated in sectors outside of Big Tech, which has led the bull market over the past two years. He called out strength in commercial services like logistics and airlines, while more economically sensitive sectors like freight and goods production continue to lag.

According to Gordon, that points to a more selective rally and could be a contrarian signal that stocks still have room to run.

"The pain trade," he added, "is probably still supportive for the equity market to go a little bit higher.""

MY COMMENT

When the term "investor" is used above I suspect they mean....Wall Street Professionals.......since that is what the headline says. I really dont know why they are called "professionals". They cant even beat the SP500......an UNMANAGED Index.

 

Well at least we had a GREEN open which is hanging in there so far.

I see lots of big headlines today that......OMG.....we are waiting to hear from the FED. As usual.....does anyone in the world have any doubt that the FED is going to do NOTHING? NO......I dont think the real markets....the retail investors care one whit what the FED has to say today.

 

This is a "TRADING" article......but....there might be some lessons here for long term "INVESTORS".

As for me I just about NEVER use the word "trading" or "trader". I am NOT a "trader".

Lately the word "trading" has crept into all the broker sites and all talk about investing. I think their use of that word is INTENTIONAL. They make a lot of money from people trading. the difference between a "TRADER" and an "INVESTOR is night and day....HUGE. It is a total mind-set.

Master this mindset and you’ll thrive in the markets

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/master-this-mindset-and-youll-thrive-in-the-markets

 

To continue the above.

Worried about — well, everything? These 5 steps can ease your mind in volatile markets.
These evidence-based strategies can help build resilience and a sense of control


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...r-mind-in-volatile-markets-9c815dd4?st=5ydvP5

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"If you’re feeling more irritable, having trouble sleeping, or constantly checking the news about the Middle East, interest rates, layoffs or the housing market, you’re not alone. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty is taking a toll on Americans — not just on their wallets, but on their well-being.

Financial stress is a leading cause of mental-health issues in the U.S., and it affects people across all income levels. In fact, according to recent surveys, almost 70% of Americans report that money is a significant source of stress — and that number spikes even higher during periods of economic instability.

But there’s something else economic uncertainty does that’s less talked about: It erodes our sense of control. And when people feel powerless, they’re more vulnerable to emotional burnout and impulsive decisions.

A recent study found that people with less than $5,000 in savings had more than twice the risk of anxiety and depression symptoms compared to those with $100,000 or more in assets. It’s not just about income — it’s about the psychological safety net that financial stability can provide.

The good news? You don’t have to wait for the next market rebound to start feeling better. There are evidence-based strategies that can help you build psychological resilience and regain a sense of agency — even in the face of economic turbulence.

Regaining a sense of control — even in small ways — can significantly reduce anxiety.

1. Focus on your “circle of control”: When the world feels uncertain, it’s easy to spiral into “what if” scenarios. While we can’t predict market fluctuations or policy shifts, we can focus on daily habits that restore a sense of stability.

Start by listing what’s in your control: your spending choices, how much news you consume, your routines and how you respond to stress. Next, do something small in each of these areas that brings about some positive change. Studies show that regaining a sense of control — even in small ways — can significantly reduce anxiety.

2. Use financial stress as a cue for self-care, not self-blame: Many people feel shame around financial struggles, especially in a culture that ties worth to wealth.

But economic downturns are systemic issues, not personal failings. When you notice stress signals such as tension headaches, irritability or ruminative thinking, use them as cues to pause, breathe and engage in coping strategies that help you feel grounded and more connected with the present moment — whether that’s reaching out to a friend, engaging in a meaningful hobby or activity, doing a five-minute mindfulness practice or taking a walk outdoors.

3. Talk to someone you trust about what you’re going through: Financial anxiety is often suffered in silence, which only amplifies the emotional burden. If you’re in a relationship, schedule regular “money check-ins” with your spouse or partner that are collaborative rather than reactive. If you’re a parent, consider how your own financial anxiety might trickle down to your kids — even without you stating your worries explicitly. To help alleviate anxiety for everyone in the family, start teaching your children financial-literacy skills early.

4. Prevention and proactivity are essential: You don’t need to hit a breaking point to benefit from mental-health support. Psychotherapists can help you process the emotional impact of financial stress and teach coping tools tailored to your personality and needs. For those unable to afford therapy right now, community clinics and online sliding-scale services can help bridge the gap.

And remember, economic fluctuations are part of the landscape — but your response is where the growth happens. That makes uncertainty a psychological challenge, not just a financial one, which provides limitless growth opportunities. What values do you want to lead with during this period? What lessons are you learning about your own resilience, adaptability and priorities?

5. Identify your strengths: When people reflect on past financial hardships, they often point to the unexpected strengths they discovered.

One way to identify your strengths is to keep a resilience journal, where you document moments — big or small — when you handled something better than expected, showed persistence or made a difficult decision aligned with your values. This not only builds self-awareness but also rewires your brain to recognize competence and growth.

When you can name your inner resources, you’re more likely to use them — and to trust that you’ll get through the next challenge, too."

MY COMMENT

Being a long term investor is a constant Psychological battle against your brain and your emotions and your body chemistry. It is important for any investor to develop the coping skills that allow YOU to be in the markets and participate in the gains.

One possible way to cope......read this thread for assurance. If need be....come on here and ask some questions and see what others think. THIS IS NOT A PLACE FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE.....but....it is a place for support if needed. As usual....figure out what works for you and do it over and over and over.......this applies to coping and mentally surviving the markets and turmoil.

 

To continue the above.

Manage the Noise

https://ritholtz.com/2025/06/manage-the-noise/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"One of the risks of being prolific and public is the built-in assumption that readers are familiar with your body of work. We all occasionally engage in shorthand based on prior beliefs, ideas, and philosophy.

This turns out to be an error.

Anything one writes is across a continuum of prior discussions; the risk in any standalone piece is that it gets taken out of the context of the philosophy from which it comes.

To wit, “Tune out the noise.”

I was genuinely surprised by the pushback this piece received, particularly from a behavioral perspective, e.g., “nobody can just tune everything out.” My mistake was assuming that the advice I was giving would be interpreted via my broader writings, encouraging people to contextualize the noise appropriately. Not unreasonable, given this is throughout How Not to Invest” (see ten related chapters here) and all over “The Big Picture.”

But alas, it was indeed misconstrued, and that is always on the author. I underestimated the impact of my headline; perhaps it primed readers towards the extreme message and away from contextualization (not my intent).

Regardless, I want to clarify the idea of Tuning Out Managing the Noise. Let’s walk through five concepts needed to better frame this:

1. Information hygiene
2. Already in price?
3. Time Horizon
4. What is within your control?
5. Behavior

A few words on each concept:

1. Your information hygiene should be better than merely adequate: You should have a well-developed filter for screening out not just the most obvious nonsense, but much of the noisy, ephemeral silliness that is neither informative nor useful. Pay particular attention to emotionally resonant sources of opinion, speculation, and pontification. The social media stuff I grabbed (below) is classic algo-driven garbage.1

Beware the Non-experts (aka salespeople) who freely share their lack of expertise with the investing public.

2. Understand what is – and is not – already in prices: If it’s on TV, in the WSJ/NYT, on the radio, analyst opinions, on blogs, and/or Substacks, you can bet that this information is already reflected in stock prices. Markets may not be perfectly efficient, but they are kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-efficient. If everybody else who has even a passing interest in the topic has seen the headline, heard the CEO, or read the 10Q, you can safely assume it’s already in the price.

Genuine surprises and new information, however, are not.

3. Activities around your portfolios should be in sync with your time horizon: It always seems surprising to have to say this, but: If you are saving for some future event 10 or 20 years off, what happens on any random Tuesday is irrelevant to your portfolio. Events like the 1987 crash, the September 11th terrorist attacks, the Flash crash, liberation day, and even the pandemic were quickly eclipsed by the broader economic and market trends.

For long-term investors, the most important thing is not to interfere with your portfolio’s ability to compound over time.

4. Recognize what is within your control: Most of the noisy information flow coming from your TV, radio, web browser, and social media is ephemeral, emotional issues that are wholly outside of your control. These include the war between Hamas and Israel which has since escalated to a hot conflict between Israel and Iran, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the “No Kings” protests, the (amusing) crash in reputation, clients and staff of law firms which failed to understand their role in the broader legal system, the tariff trade, etc.
You have no insight into any of these issues, nor should you.

I’ve shown Batnick’s chart repeatedly but, “There’s always a reason to sell.” (see also the 2024 edition) The question is whether your limbic system will succumb to that temptation or not.

5. Manage your own behavior: How do you respond to this flow of information, the emotional triggers that could set you off, the variety of inputs that make it feel like “this time is different”? This is what determines your success or failure — as an investor, or simply as a person trying to make sense of a confusing world.

But to paraphrase Bill Bernstein, “Fail to manage your limbic system, and you will die poor.”

These five elements are what I consider canon for managing around the noise. You can architect your media diet, who and what you pay attention to, frame the news flow appropriately, and simply make better decisions.

Like so much else involved in investing, it is simple, but hard…"

MY COMMENT

Managing your money and investments is about 90% learning to manage your emotions, fear, and triggers. It is about learning to manage your....BRAIN.

YES.....so simple....but....so hard to actually do.

 

STILL GREEN....in the big averages......and....they have actually improved since the open.

The ticker tells me that I have only two stocks in the RED right now.....COST and GOOGL.

 

I have no idea where we will close today but......SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

I just got back from the studio. I STILL got an ok smaller gain today. I also beat the SP500 by 0.31%.

 

Unfortunately I dont see any sign of improved intelligence at the FED today....probably even more MORONIC than usual. They are still hanging onto the dream of higher inflation......but at the same time looking for lower GDP.

WHATEVER.

We are stuck with these IDIOTS for less than a year anyway. It will be good to see the current FED go away...but....for now....we simply have to grind through their refusal to consider any rate cuts. it is not like we expected more...anyway. So...who cares.

 

Trustees: Social Security, Medicare Will Run Out of Money in 8 Years

https://www.newsmax.com/us/social-security-medicare-funding/2025/06/18/id/1215490/

It has been a while since I have seen one of these articles. CLASSIC fear-mongering. No-one cares.....GIVE UP.

NO....social Security and Medicare are NOT going to stop paying.

And.....DUH.....our geniuses in the government STOLE all the money. They never invested all the billions of dollars they collected over the past 20-30 years to build up a reserve to pay for the Baby Boomers. They just spent all the reserve money as it came in each year and replaced it with special Treasuries that pay NO interest.

Imagine if they had actually invested all that money rather than spending it. If they had simply put it into an SP500 Index it would have massively supported our economy as the money flowed through the banking and business system. They would have averaged at least 10% per year and the money would have MASSIVELY compounded. I have not run the numbers.....but if they had done this....I suspect we would have a surplus over what is going to be needed.

These sorts of fear-mongering headlines and articles are simply a........BIG GOVERNMENT LIE. We did not and are not running out of funds......it was STOLEN from the American people by both parties in our government.

SO.....screw them.

 

The markets are closed today.....so.....here is a little article that touches on investor psychology and behavior.

Why Do Some Assets Become More Attractive As they Become More Expensive?

https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2...ore-attractive-as-they-become-more-expensive/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Other things equal, a higher valuation for an asset should make it less attractive. Returns are being pulled from the future to the present. So why does the reverse often seem to be true? Why do investors often behave as if their return expectations are increasing alongside valuations? *

It is easy to characterise this phenomenon as simply characteristic performance chasing behaviour. Many investors don’t really care about the valuation of an asset; they are focused on recent returns – either attempting to capture momentum or crudely extrapolating the past into the future. Yet while these types of investors are not valuation-driven, changes in valuation are exerting a significant influence on their decisions.

Changes in the valuation of an asset can create self-reinforcing valuation loops – where a rising (falling) valuation directly leads to an increase (decrease) in investor confidence. It looks something like this:



A rising valuation boosts performance, stories are created to justify the strength of performance and this in turn increases investor appetite for the asset thereby increasing the valuation. And so it can continue.

Let’s take the example of US equities over the past decade. A substantial portion of its outperformance has been due to this market becoming more expensive (alongside good fundamental growth). This rise in valuation inevitably played a role in the emergence and persistence of the ‘US exceptionalism’ argument. As the market became more expensive it became more exceptional.

Ultimately, investors care more about performance and less about what is causing it.

But there must be a limit to these valuation loops, surely the value of an asset can’t keep going in one direction? While there usually is a limit, the strength of it depends on how much of a valuation anchor an asset class possesses.

A valuation anchor is simply some fundamental features of an asset that exert a form of gravitational pull on how cheap or expensive it can become. There are three key factors that dictate how much of a valuation anchor might be apparent:

– Does it have cash flows or any other fundamental means of valuation?

– Are cash flows contractual / constrained?

– Is there a maturity point or is it perpetual?

For example, a ‘AA’ rated corporate bond with two years to maturity has a very strong valuation anchor. Its cash flows are contractual, and it will mature in twenty-four months. There is only so far its valuation is likely to move in that period.

Conversely, an asset like gold has no anchor and is perfect for sustained valuation loops. It doesn’t have cash flows and is a perpetual instrument. Its price is its value, and its value is perceived to increase the more it rises. Does gold become more attractive if it falls 50%? Probably not for the vast majority of investors.

I think there are three broad groupings that frame an asset’s susceptibility to self-reinforcing valuation loops:

Strong valuation anchor: Most fixed income securities qualify for this group as they have contractual returns and a fixed maturity. Although when discussing quasi-perpetual assets like a ten-year US treasury the anchor is far weaker.

Weak valuation anchor: Equities reside here. Although they do have cash flows and a ‘fair value’ can be estimated, they are perpetual and have no (hard) limits on the theoretical future cash flows that can be generated. There is not much to prevent fantastical stories being used to justify either very high or low valuations. There are, however, certain extremes where valuations start to bite – US equities might trade at 30x earnings and the rest of the world at 15x, but it is hard to imagine the US reaching 100x.

Many commodities would probably fit into this category also, not because of cash flows but because of competitive market dynamics.

No valuation anchor: Gold and crypto are the obvious examples and what I would call belief assets.** They are perpetual with no cash flow and no reasonable means of valuation. It is not that stories are used to justify a rising price / valuation, it is that the price is the story. This creates the potential for prolonged trends where a rising price serves to increase the validity of the asset, and it does so without any obvious anchor to a valuation level. This can be extremely attractive, but it is critical to remember that this exact phenomenon can also operate in reverse."

MY COMMENT

As a stock investor I would call this.....MOMENTUM. There is a whole category of investor built around momentum. Traders and investors. I would consider myself.....somewhat.....of a momentum investor. Although for me the company also....usually.... has to be a BIG CAP GROWTH company.

Of course with MOMENTUM the age old......is it the chicken or the egg.....applies.