I have mentioned in the past that I am a officer in a family oil and gas corporation. We own about 1000 acres of mineral rights in the Permian Basin in the South Eastern corner of New Mexico. The corporation also holds about 400 acres of actual land. The company was started by my mom and her four siblings way back in the mid 1960's when their mother died. My sister and I still own our original 20% of the company and the assets. Myself and the other family Board members recently decided to sell off ALL the mineral rights and land and close down the corporation. With kids and grandchildren it will be a nightmare for future generations to manage and deal with....as shares get more and more diluted. We are approaching the end of our first deal to sell off the mineral rights. Our plan is to sell off all the mineral rights first and than sell off the land. The first little mineral rights holding that is pending a sale right now is about 11 acres. We have an offer of $13,500 per acre for the mineral rights that will hopefully close in about two weeks.....about $150,000. We have a LAND-MAN that is representing us and helping to Shepard the deal along. Unfortunately this first little sale is probably our best parcel. The other approximately 1000 acres of mineral rights will probably sell in the $250 to $500 per acre range. I would consider it a good result if the sale of all the land and mineral rights ends up generating about $600,000 to $800,000. That means that after taxes and legal and CPA fees my sister and I might actually...realistically..... clear about $100,000 as owners of 1/5 of the corporation. It will probably take us about a year to wrap everything up. This company has never been much of an income producer. In an average year recently we are lucky to have income of $1000 to $2000 from a few active leases. I am actually amazed that the assets might be worth as much as it appears. Any money that comes in from this little family asset will go into the stock markets.
Speaking of Board Meetings.....I have a noon board meeting today for another organization that I am part of. So I have to leave for now and get ready. It looks like I am getting hammered today with NVDA and PLTR both down. BUMMER....but just the way it is day to day in a very shallow market week.....with ALL focus on government "stuff"......with the tax bill the big news item of the day and probably the week.
It was a TECH selloff today.....at least in my little portfolio. I ended the day with a good size....but not abnormal...loss. I also got beat by the SP500 today by.....1.37%. My GREEN stocks were.....HD, AAPL, AMZN, and WMT. A sleepy, slow market day....combined with tech selling from the beginning. Probably profit taking from many of the tech names that are at or near all time highs.
AND.....the BBB has passed the senate. I will happily take the tax rates when the bill is signed. I would also like to see the Senate version of the SENIOR SAVERS....extra standard deduction for Seniors over age 65.....stick. That would give my wife and I another $6000 each. In a typical year we wold be pushing $45,000 in standard deduction on our taxes. We might actually see our taxes come down by $2000 or so. It would be nice to see our income tax reduced to about $6000.....total. As it is in a normal year....without some big capital gain...our adjusted gross income is about $100,000....thanks to our income annuities and how they are structured for taxes. Our actual income....outside of taxes is about......$200,000....per year.
I missed most of the markets today. Apparently, I missed nothing with the general index being about flat. Looks like some tech got a bit of selling. As mentioned, probably pocketing some gains or moving it to something else. Might have wanted some vacation money….lol. I haven’t paid much attention to the BBB (bill). I figure anything over a thousand pages is a lobbyist dream as usual. Seems it has been overshadowed a bit by the Elon/President nasty little public feud. Not too surprising, but man that has went off the rails. I figure the TSLA shareholders would like for things to just get back to business and out of politics.
The economic data today.....BUMMER for the morons at the FED......and....the economists. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday. It’s a potential sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. This week, the government’s nonfarm payrolls report will be out on Thursday with economists expecting a healthy 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Some economists could revise down their jobs reports estimates following ADP’s data. Weekly jobless claims data is also due Thursday, with economists penciling in 240,000. This string of labor stats comes during a shortened trading week, with the market closing early on Thursday and remaining dark on Friday in honor of the July Fourth holiday. Service roles hit hardest The bulk of job losses came in service roles tied to professional and business services and health and education, according to ADP. Professional/business services notched a decline of 56,000, while health/education saw a net loss of 52,000. Financial activity roles also contributed to this month’s decline with a drop of 14,000 on balance. But the contraction was capped by payroll expansions in goods-producing roles across industries such as manufacturing and mining. All together, goods-producing positions grew by 32,000 in the month, while payrolls for service roles overall fell by 66,000. The Midwest and Western U.S. saw the strongest contractions in June, declining by 24,000 and 20,000, respectively. Meanwhile, the Northeast shed 3,000 roles. The Southern U.S. was the sole region tracked by the ADP to see payrolls expand on net in the month, recording an increase of 13,000 positions. The smallest firms tended to see more job losses this month than their larger counterparts. In fact, businesses with more than 500 employees saw the biggest payroll growth in the month with an increase of 30,000, per ADP. By comparison, businesses with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 29,000 lost roles on net. Annual income growth decreased modestly from May for both job stayers and hoppers. The rate of pay increase for those staying in their jobs ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5%, while those getting new roles slid to 6.8% from 7%. The S&P 500 is up more than 4% for the year, posting a stunning comeback in the second quarter after worries about President Donald Trump’s tariff fights nearly sent the benchmark into a bear market." MY COMMENT Along with flat inflation this is yet another indicator for the FED to cut rates. BUT....they sit MUTE playing little passive-aggressive games. Not that I believe or trust this number....or even care. As an investor I NEVER do anything based on economic data.
I like this little article. About That ‘Worst Start on Record’ for the Greenback In context, the dollar’s drop is benign. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-that-worst-start-on-record-for-the-greenback (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "You know investor sentiment is in a weird place when global stocks rise 9.5% in the year’s first half, yet most headlines fixate on the dollar marching off to its “worst start on record.” But alas, that is where we are. Q2’s complete trip from Liberation Day panic to new highs seems lost in the shuffle, supplanted by greenback handwringing. Now, we are of the view that dollar swings are generally overegged. Neither a strong nor weak dollar is inherently good or bad for trade, economic growth or stocks. Currency moves can create winners and losers, but companies hedge for them, and they are only one factor. But also, in proper context, the dollar’s move isn’t so significant. You see, currencies trade in pairs, always, which means that in the developed world, they aren’t one-direction. They generally trend up and down over time, waffling like those sine wave charts you might remember from Intro to Trig. All else equal, money flows to the highest-yielding asset, so currencies will generally track interest rate expectations. That is it. They don’t cause or predict economic trends. They just reflect expectations for future payouts. And currency strength and weakness has absolutely zippo to do with the US dollar’s status as world reserve currency, which also happens to be near-meaningless for US economic and stock market prospects. But because currencies ebb and flow, there will be stretches where moves look big. And because people seem to be hardwired to fear currency moves, those moves will cause angst. Here, folks are worried the dollar is too weak. In Europe, central banks are getting so nervous about currency strength that the Swiss National Bank took rates to zero last week. The answer to all of this is to view moves in context. So this is what we do for you in Exhibits 1 – 4. They show, in order, the dollar relative to the pound, yen, euro and a broad trade-weighted currency basket. The euro chart starts at that currency’s birth. The others start in early 1973, when the modern post-Bretton Woods system took effect. You will see that relative to the pound, the dollar is still rather strong, trading above its long-term average. Relative to the yen and euro, it is just about bang-on average. And relative to the global basket, it is very strong—still at levels everyone thought were too high throughout 2023 and 2024. Nor is the drop relative to this basket historically large. It may indeed be the worst first half-year, but there were larger six-month drops in 1995, late 2009 and late 2020. All were fine times for stocks. If the dollar’s last high-water mark didn’t happen to occur at yearend, no one would be talking about the “weakest start” on record. We doubt anyone would shriek over the 11th largest six-month drop in history. It isn’t exactly headline-inducing. Exhibit 1: The Dollar in Context, Sterling Edition Source: FactSet, as of 7/1/2025. Month-end spot rate, 3/31/1973 – 6/30/2025. Exhibit 2: The Dollar in Context, Yen Edition Source: FactSet, as of 7/1/2025. Month-end spot rate, 3/31/1973 – 6/30/2025. Exhibit 3: The Dollar in Context, Euro Edition Source: FactSet, as of 7/1/2025. Month-end spot rate, 3/31/1973 – 6/30/2025. Exhibit 4: The Dollar in Context, Omnibus Edition Source: FactSet, as of 7/1/2025. Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad), monthly, 3/31/1973 – 6/30/2025. So no, the dollar isn’t crashing or historically weak. It is behaving like a normal currency, with normal wobbles, at levels coinciding with fine economic growth and market returns. The fear is a sign of sentiment, not of dark things to come." MY COMMENT The dollar is another "thing" that I do not care much about as a long term investor. BUT....at times I do see the media focusing on this "stuff". So here you go.
If you are into the dollar talk.....here you go. USD – Back to trading on the usual drivers • Most of the USD weakness since early May was likely driven by cyclical rather than structural forces • Structural forces may be hard to reverse quickly • Cyclical and position-driven moves can be reversed more rapidly if data trends shift https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/07/2730_englander.pdf
Get used to this.....it is going to snowball with the adoption and growth of AI. Although in general corporations have been cutting jobs for at least the past 10-15 years. It is a good thing for investors....it is called PRODUCTIVITY. Microsoft to cut about 4% of jobs amid hefty AI bets https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micr...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD "Microsoft said on Wednesday it planned to reduce organizational layers with fewer managers and streamline its products, procedures and roles." MY COMMENT This has been happening for years but AI will kick it into high gear. We are seeing this sort of elimination of layers of management across all sorts of companies here in the USA.
HERE is the ACTUAL important news today.....I suspect we will see many deals happening this month. Trump says he has struck a trade deal with Vietnam https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...as-struck-trade-deal-with-vietnam-2025-07-02/ July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he has struck a trade deal with Vietnam and would announce details later. MY COMMENT This is the totality of the article. More detail to come.
Oh yes.....there are markets happening. The DOW is taking a break for a few hours or perhaps more after a nice gain yesterday. the SP500 and NASDAQ are doing much better and are in the GREEN. For me so far today looks like a reversal of the losses that I had yesterday......I will take it.
The market today. S&P 500 rises after Trump announces Vietnam trade deal; gains limited by weak jobs data https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal. However, investor optimism was limited due to a new report showing private payrolls surprisingly decreased in June, raising concern over the state of the U.S. economy. The benchmark index gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around the flatline. The S&P 500 saw a boost after the president posted about the deal between the two countries on Truth Social, though he provided no additional information on the agreement. Earlier Wednesday, stocks came under some pressure after the latest report by ADP showed that the private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month. That marks the first monthly decline in ADP’s payrolls report since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected payrolls to grow by 100,000. “We, frankly, have been seeing a weakening of the labor market for months and months now, and I always wondered if it would take a negative payrolls print to get the [Federal Reserve] to pay a little bit more attention to the labor market as opposed to the inflation picture,” Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, told CNBC. “This is, on that front, what will hopefully catch some attention.” The report comes with the stock market near record highs despite concerns that lingering trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries could slow U.S. and global economic growth. To be sure, the ADP report has a lackluster record predicting the government’s monthly jobs report, which is due out Thursday. Economists expect growth of 110,000 jobs for June. Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, with the Dow surging 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower after a broad decline in tech shares. The Dow got a boost as investors rotated into materials and health care stocks. Traders also kept an eye on Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday. The measure returns to the House, where there are still hold-outs among GOP lawmakers. “We expect to see more volatility in fixed income, even once they get the bill passed, whatever that looks like,” said Jose Rasco, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management Americas CIO on “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “That’s going to bleed over into the equity markets.” Still, this turbulence is likely to be short-lived, he said. “Once these things get resolved and once the [Federal Reserve] gets back in gear, there’s a lot of upside here,” Rasco said." MY COMMENT EVERYTHING continues to line up NICELY for investors. We will soon see the end of what is left of the Tariff DRAMA and FEAR-MONGERING. NONE of the anticipated impact actually happened. I see JULY as the month that many tariff deals will happen or in some way be resolved to make this "stuff" irrelevant. That is how the markets tend to be......FEAR....is typical and rarely justified. it is just part of the environment that investors have to be able to deal with.
I dont see any articles yet....but....what I am hearing about the Vietnam trade deal sounds very favorable to the USA and our business community.
I believe the July CPI and PPI will be a HUGE factor in the FED and rate cuts. If the MILD inflation continues I see some potential for a rate cut before September. At this point I am in the camp of the first cut happening in September.....but the potential for an earlier cut is building. The CPI and PPI data will release on July 15 & 16. I also see this release as having very good potential to kick off a BIG summer rally in conjunction with the start of earnings.
BUMMER for an old school company....but...not much of a surprise with the shift in consumer preference that has been happening over the past ten years. You can thank the suburban moms. Del Monte, the 139-year-old canned fruits and vegetables company, seeks bankruptcy protection https://finance.yahoo.com/news/del-monte-139-old-canned-145454666.html
Here is a bit more detail. Trump announces a US trade deal with Vietnam https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/02/business/trade-deal-vietnam-trump (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "CNN — President Donald Trump said Wednesday he has made a trade deal with Vietnam. “I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. In a subsequent post he said, “The Terms are that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping.” The 90-day pause on Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” expires on July 9, and the administration has been working with more than a dozen key trading partners on frameworks of trade agreements ahead of the deadline. The deal with Vietnam, would mark the third such agreement Trump has arranged with another country over the last three months. It was not immediately clear if the agreement had been finalized. Tariff rates on Vietnamese goods shipped to the US were set to rise to a minimum of 46% if the rates Trump announced in April held. Tariffs on Vietnam were among the highest he announced. Vietnam is a major trading partner with the US and was the sixth-top source of goods the US imported last year, shipping $137 billion worth of goods. That’s more than double the value of goods exported to the US five years prior, according to US Commerce Department data. This is a developing story and will be updated." MY COMMENT I am hearing......but there is no documentation yet..... that USA goods going to Vietnam will be tariff free and with much greater access. BUT......nothing in print that I can find yet.....so.....who knows.
HERE is the ....."government".... post on the deal. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. It will be a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries. The Terms are that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping. In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff. It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
I dont mean to emphasize trade and tariffs in the posts above....but....I know there is a lot of interest tin this topic. Personally......I dont care much.....I know in the end in general after all the deals are in place......the terms of trade will be BETTER for the USA than when this process started.....all around the world.
Time to sit and allow the markets to catch up with the news today. As a long term investor I am interested in the day to day news....but....dont want to be obsessive. So.....I WILL JUST SHUT UP.....and try to.....MAKE SOME MONEY.....today by doing nothing.
I was randomly reading on the internet and ran intro this. I like it with the 4th of July approaching. The Sacrifices Made By The Declaration Signers… https://michaelwsmith.com/the-sacrifices-made-by-the-declaration-signers/ "Happy July 4 to everyone here in America. Just a reminder of the price that was paid for our freedom. I honestly just did not know the great sacrifices that these men paid… Makes me love this country even more. ======================================= What happened to the signers of the Declaration of Independence? This is the Price They Paid Have you ever wondered what happened to the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence? Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. Two lost their sons in the revolutionary army, another had two sons captured. Nine of the 56 fought and died from wounds or hardships of the revolutionary war. They signed and they pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor. What kind of men were they? Twenty-four were lawyers and jurists. Eleven were merchants, nine were farmers and large plantation owners, men of means, well educated. But they signed the Declaration of Independence knowing full well that the penalty would be death if they were captured. Carter Braxton of Virginia, a wealthy planter and trader, saw his ships swept from the seas by the British Navy. He sold his home and properties to pay his debts, and died in rags. Thomas McKeam was so hounded by the British that he was forced to move his family almost constantly. He served in the Congress without pay, and his family was kept in hiding. His possessions were taken from him, and poverty was his reward. Vandals or soldiers or both, looted the properties of Ellery, Clymer, Hall, Walton, Gwinnett, Heyward, Ruttledge, and Middleton. At the battle of Yorktown, Thomas Nelson Jr., noted that the British General Cornwallis had taken over the Nelson home for his headquarters. The owner quietly urged General George Washington to open fire. The home was destroyed, and Nelson died bankrupt. Francis Lewis had his home and properties destroyed. The enemy jailed his wife, and she died within a few months. John Hart was driven from his wife’s bedside as she was dying. Their 13 children fled for their lives. His fields and his gristmill were laid to waste. For more than a year he lived in forests and caves, returning home to find his wife dead and his children vanished. A few weeks later he died from exhaustion and a broken heart. Norris and Livingston suffered similar fates. Such were the stories and sacrifices of the American Revolution. These were not wild eyed, rabble-rousing ruffians. They were soft-spoken men of means and education. They had security, but they valued liberty more. Standing tall, straight, and unwavering, they pledged: “For the support of this declaration, with firm reliance on the protection of the divine providence, we mutually pledge to each other, our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.”" MY COMMENT HAPPY FORTH OF JULY......in advance.
