I TOTALLY agree with this little article as an.....INVESTOR.....the parts that I have BOLDED. I NEVER invest according to what government is going to do...is doing...or has done. It is a waste of time and it is a HUGE danger to any investor to get caught up in government action or inaction as a driving force in how and why you invest. Investment by its very nature is......PRIVATE BUSINESS....based. Total focus as an investor should be on the PRIVATE businesses that you own that their FUNDAMENTAL business results. One Big Beautiful Country It's Mistaken to Think of the U.S. In Terms of Its Government https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p...e&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As Washington consumes itself with the One Big Beautiful Bill and as the Second Season of the Trump Show launches a fragrance line of perfumes and cologne, it’s an opportune time on the eve of the 249th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence to remember that the United States, like most countries, is far more than the sum total of its government. That should be an obvious statement, and yet year by year, the federal government consumes more of our limited public bandwidth to the point that it has become the dominant news story on any given day. The ability of Trump himself to manipulate and dominate the media landscape is part of his genius, yet it is creating an even more distorted optic. In fact, it’s getting to the point where we are discussing the United States almost entirely in terms of what emanates from Washington. That is a profound mistake. We are far more than what the federal government does or doesn’t do. That’s certainly true economically. In 2024, government spending in the United States was about $6.75 trillion, which is a bit less than 25 percent of the country’s GDP. Almost half of that is health spending (Medicare and Medicaid primarily) and Social Security payments, which means that much of the budget is simply transfer payments for the safety net. Another $1 trillion is interest on the debt, and nearly another $1 trillion is spent on defense. Another $1 trillion or so is veteran benefits, retirement plans for federal employees, and an array of income security programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP (which used to be called food stamps). That leaves less than $1 trillion of non-defense discretionary spending, and for the most part, it is that $1 trillion that becomes the focus of all debates, pro and con. It is that $1 trillion that includes USAID, the Department of Education, NASA, the National Institutes of Health, the State Department, the Parks Department, transportation, and the EPA. It is that $1 trillion that everyone fights over, and that is less than 3 percent of the U.S. economy. For sure, that $1 trillion is a lot of money, and cutting that spending affects a lot of institutions and people. But not nearly as much as you would think given the intense focus. Yes, you could fill up every news site and podcast for weeks and weeks with stories of people adversely affected by how that spending is allocated, but that’s because in a country of 330 million people and that many programs funded, the absolute number of those impacted is huge. Relatively, however, it isn’t nearly as big. I wrote a few weeks ago about how the R&D budgets of the five top tech companies are about 3x greater than the entire research funding that the federal government provided in 2024. On just about every meaningful metric, the same pattern exists, and even more so. The amount of money spent on education locally is vastly more than whatever the federal government spends, as is private money for private schools. The amount spent on land conservation privately and at the state and local level (often in the form of tax abatements) is also immense relative to public efforts. Private universities spend nearly $300 billion a year. Public universities (most of which receive no more than 10% of their budget from the states) spend close to $500 billion. In every area of life, non-governmental spending dwarfs governmental. The point of these stats is to highlight that the vast bulk of how we live our lives is not funneled through Washington D.C. And yet, we have created a collective narrative that the fate of everything runs through the beltway. Government — federal, state and local — has one unequivocal monopoly: it alone has the legal right to use violence and force against citizens. That makes government everywhere loom large in people’s lives because it has the tools to coerce. We hope that those tools are used sparingly and in the service of an agreed-on public good. Often, however, those tools are abused and misused. And with July 4th in the United States, we should remember that one animating force of the rebellion, and then the subsequent founding of the Republic in 1789, was the fear and awareness that with the monopoly on the legitimate use of force, people and institutions of power will tend to abuse that power unless checked. There was also, of course, a strong inclination to limit the scope of government that animated the founding of the United States. Yet, starting in the mid-19th century, especially with the Civil War, the scope of the federal and state governments began to expand. The expansion of government took off during the New Deal and then World War II. The subsequent creation of the national security state apparatus, and the Great Society programs of the 1960s, further accelerated it. The result is that we have far more government than most generations of Americans wanted or fully intended, and we have a far more expansive array of presidential powers as well. Even with that, however, much of American life remains only marginally touched by the federal government. Paying taxes and receiving Social Security checks and medical benefits are by far the most common and regular interactions any of us have with Washington and its agencies. Much of our lives is both untouched by and unaffected by government, even in an age of draconian immigration enforcement and the attempt of the White House to exact retribution on public and private institutions it finds objectionable. A more balanced daily discussion would, of course, expand beyond what Congress, the presidency, and the courts decide and debate. To a degree, I suppose, news about celebrities and gossipy lurid trials à la Sean Combs are broadening the aperture, but that can be like substituting one set of hollow calories for another rather than creating a more balanced diet. A more balanced daily discussion would look intently at AI, at medical discoveries, at innovative urban programs to address pressing needs, at non-profits and what they are accomplishing (and non-profits spend close to $4 trillion annually, which is 4x the discretionary budget of the federal government), at local governments and what they are doing well, or not doing well. And with this July 4th, it is worth recognizing that in most respects, the United States has carved out a remarkable space of individual freedoms and liberties over the last 249 years, compared to most societies on the planet. The United States remains an open society, even as the limits of that are tested and contested. Even with its monopoly on the use of force, the government is constrained by the rule of law to a degree that most societies for much of history would have found astonishing and enviable. In many of my pieces this year, I have been trying to remind us how dark the American past has been, because recognizing our past ugliness makes the present more a part of a problematic continuum than a dramatic break. As we celebrate July 4th, it’s equally vital to recognize the best of us." MY COMMENT I "like" this little article from the stand point that too often as investors and people we let the daily media OBSESSION with government control and drive our lives. It is all consuming and totally dominating in the media. The FED....all the economic data releases.....the political drama.....etc, etc, etc. In spite of it all..... over the longer term it is NOT that important to investors.
As many know on here.....If I have a lump sum of money available to ivnest.....I simply go all in all at once. I dont care if we are at a market high or not. I dont try to wait for some mythical entry point or time the market. When I have it.....I invest it...all at once, right away. I do this because the academic research tell me that the.....PROBABILITY....is that this will maximize my returns going forward especially over the medium to long term......and.....will beat those that dollar cost in, market time and/or wait for a good entry point. Investing a Lump Sum at All-Time Highs https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/investing-a-lump-sum-at-all-time-highs-2/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A reader asks: I recently sold my condo for $400k and want to invest the money in the stock market. However, it appears the market is at an all time high. Should I invest elsewhere or wait for a market correction? Excellent question. Let’s start with the math first and then work our way to the psychological ramifications. Here are some charts from Exhibit A on the history of all-time highs: The good news is that new all-time highs are perfectly normal. On average they happen 20 times a year since 1990. The bad news is that there can be dry spells as those new highs tend to cluster. Here’s another way of looking at this: Obviously, the all-time highs cluster around bull markets while the droughts are caused by bear markets and lost decades. Let’s do some more good news since I like to be positive: Not only are new all-time highs perfectly normal, your returns are actually better when you invest at those levels than putting your money to work on all other days over 1, 3 and 5 year windows. If you’re looking at this strictly from a cost-benefit perspective, you don’t need to be scared off by new highs in the stock market. They happen more often than you think. Long-term investors need to become accustomed to buying and holding at new heights. People have been trying to call THE top of this bull market since the bottom in 2009. The thing is one of these all-time highs will be THE peak that occurs before a nasty market crash. There will be a painful bear market and we won’t see new highs for a few years.1 This is the hard part when thinking through a lump sum investment like this. The math tells you the stock market is up three out of every four years, on average, and investing at all-time highs offers slightly above average results. Those are pretty good odds. But the psychology tells you losses bring far more pain than the pleasure you receive from gains. This is why many people are more comfortable dollar cost averaging into the market, even if it’s a sub-optimal approach from a spreadsheet perspective. Regret minimization is key when working through these decisions. Some people would regret missing out on further gains if they dollar cost averaged into stocks and the market keeps moving higher. Most people would feel more regret if they put that lump sum to work and the market immediately rolled over. You shouldn’t always allow behavioral psychology to guide your actions but you have to weigh the pros and cons of both the math and human nature when making big investment decisions like this. You also don’t have to put all of this money into stocks. You could create a more balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash and other investments if that makes it easier to be fully invested sooner. An all-or-nothing approach tends to invite more opportunities for regret." MY COMMENT MOST people probably have a very hard time investing with the PROBABILITIES when it comes to investing a lump sum immediately....even at a market high. I have ZERO PROBLEM....I have done it many times and it is my long term TOTAL habit to do so. I TRUST the research and probability data. This is a perfect test of ability to ignore emotions and go with the logic. BUT.....if you struggle with this or simply cant do it....dont beat yourself up....you are probably in the majority. Just do what you can stand to do and get that money working in the markets in a way that you can mentally endure.
YES...I am ignoring the markets today because the short term action that we are seeing is simply STUPID to me as a long term investor. There is NOTHING actually happening today....it is all short term nonsense and some profit taking. Of course it is AMPLIFIED and MULTIPLIED by the AI TRADING PLATFORMS taking advantage to trade the news content and headlines. I do like this little story. Citi lifts Nvidia's price target on booming sovereign AI demand https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi...on-booming-sovereign-ai-demand-133311040.html "The firm raised its price target on the chipmaker to $190 per share, implying a roughly 15% upside from Nvidia's current trading levels. Citi analysts said they see Nvidia capturing a larger piece of an expanding total addressable market (TAM) for data center infrastructure. The upgrade comes as Nvidia continues its charge toward a $4 trillion market cap, with shares up 12% in the past month." MY COMMENT Of course...I own NVDA....so DUH.
We are CERTAINLY seeing this here in the Austin region. Although I would not call it a buyers market. Housing Supply Has Bounced Back In Some Markets https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-supply-bounced-back-markets-142919438.html
And as to the above. Mortgage rates drop for fifth straight week The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.67%. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-drop-for-fifth-straight-week-160544782.html
I have ONE stock up right now.....PLTR. BUT....my loss today....so far...is holding at a medium level....actually less that I expected. It is a waste of time for me to watch the markets today......move on....nothing to see here. Just short term churning over current event news opinion and content.
WXYZ My current portfolio has: NVDA PLTR COST GOOG MSFT AMZN BAC SOFI KO VOO Top 3 are currently heavily weighted. I just recently dumped HD.
I like that KO....Broteau. An old school holding. I like the concept of holding some old school big cap DIVIDEND stocks along with the big tech modern names.....for balance and a bit of safety. I have held KO and PG and many others over the years. I dont hold any right now....except for WMT. I do like PG. I try to achieve the same things with a good percentage.....well below 50% now with the growth in my stocks....in the SP500 Index. Looks like you have a great portfolio.
I am now less red than earlier. I still only have one stock up....PLTR. I would now call my loss a "small" loss. There is NOT much selling enthusiasm today......although there is enough to drive the big averages into the red. A MILD and IRRELEVANT day in the markets......so far.
I find this an interesting concept.....BUT.....I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT THIS PRODUCT BY TALKING ABOUT IT. Wall Street Builds S&P 500 ‘No Dividend’ Fund in New Tax Dodge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s latest tax dodge doesn’t hide in the Cayman Islands or rely on complex derivatives. It’s engineered to turn a publicly traded fund into a tax-minimizing machine that hums quietly on autopilot. While dividends have long been a defining feature of stock investing — a sign of corporate discipline and investor reward — Roundhill Investments plans to launch the S&P 500 No Dividend Target exchange-traded fund on July 10 with the ticker XDIV. Its ambition is simple but strategic: track the performance of the famous benchmark while dodging its payouts. The fund will sell holdings just before their dividend dates — steering income away from ETF shareholders and, in the process, away from their tax bills. As stock benchmarks have climbed in recent years and tax bills have grown alongside them, asset managers are building products that give investors more control over when — and whether — they owe taxes. These rely on sophisticated mechanisms to reduce taxable events, essentially transforming the fund structure into a programmable tax-sensitive tool. These strategies are executed through US-regulated ETFs that trade on public exchanges, offering investors easy access and the kind of fiscal flexibility once reserved for private wealth clients. It’s “for people who are tax-aware — intended for people who want to have S&P 500 exposure without the downside of distributions,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer at Roundhill. “There hasn’t been a product in the market to meet the needs of investors for this.” While most ETFs already sidestep capital gains by using a mechanism known as in-kind redemptions, XDIV’s strategy takes aim at a different category of tax exposure: ordinary income. The fund, which will charge a 0.0849% fee at the start, will invest in other S&P 500 ETFs, such as Vanguard’s VOO, but will exit positions just before ex-dividend dates. It will then rotate from one such index fund into another that isn’t about to pay a distribution. That could appeal to clients who don’t reinvest payouts consistently — which can be a drag on performance — or high earners seeking to limit taxable income in brokerage accounts. “There are certain investors who don’t want taxable income — there’s institutional investors who only want the total return for an investment,” Mazza said. “Then, there’s tax-aware mom-and-pop investors who are focused on long-term compounding, but they don’t want to receive current income because that means their total income — even if it’s modest compared to what they may be making from their compensation — is still going to be taxable.” Skipping the dividend isn’t an own goal. When a company pays out cash to shareholders, its stock typically falls by the same amount, so by selling just before that moment, the ETF gives up the payout but also sidesteps the price dip. In other words, the value of the trade should net out, the thinking goes. What changes is how — and when — investors owe taxes. XDIV joins a growing wave of tax-optimized offerings. Others, like the Burney US Factor Rotation ETF, convert entire portfolios into the wrapper without triggering a taxable event. Cambria’s Tax Aware ETF, meanwhile, seeded its portfolio with appreciated stocks, allowing investors to swap exposures without formally realizing gains. And more products that hew to this idea could come to market soon. A firm named LionShares LLC in mid-June filed for an ETF that would invest in other ETFs tracking the large-cap US equity market, but would at the same time look to “minimize” distributions, according to its paperwork. Earlier, F/m Investments, a Washington DC-based asset manager with a growing ETF lineup, filed for a number of new bond products that would swap between different holdings in order to dodge dividend payouts, something that industry veteran Dave Nadig dubbed “clever.” “The ability of ETFs to sidestep capital gains isn’t just a technical quirk anymore — it’s a core selling point, and issuers are leaning into this edge,” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence." MY COMMENT For some people probably an option. I have NOT researched any of these products.....this is my first awareness of them. I prefer a regular ETF that makes distributions since I want to get the compounding that comes from reinvesting capital gains and dividends.....BUT....that is just me.
With a bit less than an hour to go I have IMPROVED to three stocks green....PLTR, COST, and WMT. STILL.....a small loss day for me.
I closed out the day with three stocks GREEN.....COST, PLTR, and WMT. Good enough to earn me a small loss and a good beat on the SP500 by.....0.48%. I am happy to have those three up today and the SP500 beat.....onward and upward.
Here is the relatively worthless day today. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq retreat as Trump reignites trade tensions with flurry of letters, August deadline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I Nothing much of a day.
God help us....here is the FED's meeting schedule for the rest of the year. June 17-18 June 17-18* July 29-30 September 16-17* October 28-29 December 9-10* MY COMMENT Not that they have any relevance or real power anymore. The dates with an asterisk are those for which the meeting is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.
