The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I DO NOT buy the VALUE versus GROWTH dichotomy being pushed by the media and the big banks right now. FIRST.....there is no reason BOTH types of investments cant thrive in the same time period. SECOND.....the big growth stocks have been the market and economic leaders for many many years now. This leadership is going to continue for a long time as TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION continues. We are just at the begining of this event.

    For those interested in this type of discussion here is a taste of what is being said:

    Coronavirus vaccine will topple Big Tech's stock market domination: Goldman Sachs

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/

    (BOLD is my opinion Or what I consider important content)

    "A coronavirus vaccine will restore economic growth and break up the stock market's yearlong love affair with Big Tech, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group.

    A safe and effective vaccine would put the population on a fast track to herd immunity, and help restore much of the global output that was lost as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The strategists expect the 6% growth in global GDP next year, something they say is not yet reflected in market pricing.

    Global equity markets are on track for decent gains this year, but we do not think markets have yet priced in a robust cyclical recovery,” wrote a Goldman Sachs team led by Zach Pandl, co-head of global foreign exchange, rates and emerging markets strategy.

    The benchmark S&P 500 has advanced 11% in 2020, but the gains have been narrow in scope. Mega-cap tech stocks Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Tesla have gained approximately 40% this year while other stocks in the index are lower. Together, the stocks, excluding Tesla, make up about 20% of the index.

    The rotation from growth to cyclical stocks has already gotten underway as that collection of mega-cap tech stocks has seen their market capitalizations fall 9.7% from their Sept. 2 peak to $7.64 trillion.

    News of a potential COVID-19 vaccine was the catalyst needed from a headline standpoint to get the rotation going, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research.

    He argues the rotation from cyclical-growth to defensive-value stocks “has more legs.” A further pullback to the pre-COVID-19 peak in those mega-cap tech names would result in a 22% drop from current levels, shaving off another $1.7 trillion of market value.

    All of that money going into value stocks would boost the S&P 500 Value index by almost 10%.

    “This is a trade, not a trend, and has a few more weeks, maybe months, left in it,” Rosenberg wrote.

    Growth stocks are those which have strong earnings growth and are expected to outperform the average company in their industry. Value stocks are those that are trading cheaply compared to their fundamentals.

    MY COMMENT

    I dont buy this "stuff". BUT....who knows. Right or wrong I dont expect it will matter in the slightest to the average investor.
     
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  2. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Thank You, served with pride. Army Strong!
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting to see where we end up at the close today. The negative market open does not "feel" very confident to me at the moment.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.......BIGMAIX. I should also mention......to ALL of those CURRENTLY serving......you are NOT veterans yet......you are active duty military......but you are OBVIOUSLY also TRUE AMERICAN PATRIOTS.......the defenders of our freedoms and rights.
     
    #2484 WXYZ, Nov 12, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2020
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  5. BigPear

    BigPear Member

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    New energy vehicle and holographic AR markets are huge, needs in future are very certain, we should keep long-term investment primarily.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the comment......BigPear. I will say.....as usual.....anyone is welcome to post anything they want on this thread to do with ANY kind of investing, economic content, trading, etc etc, etc.

    I was in the RED today....but not too badly. In fact the loss today was better than I expected. AND.....as an added bonus.....I beat the SP500 by .48%.

    End of the week tomorrow. Lets end the week with a BANG.......a really BIG BANG. No....I am not predicting anything......
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WANT to BELIEVE in the power of long term investing......and.....the power of compounding......but......you have those doubts how something so simple can actually work? WELL......here is the proof. What we see in IRA and 401K accounts is that power. These accounts plug away year after year as people slowly move toward retirement. The VAST MAJORITY of people are NOT trading these accounts. They simply put the money away each month or each year.....usually in a mutual fund or an Index of some kind and lit it ride.

    The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires reach record high amid pandemic

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/401k-ira-millionaires-reach-high-180944257.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The number of retirement investors with at least $1 million saved in their Fidelity Investment accounts hit a record high in the third quarter, even as the pandemic’s second wave approached and the economic outlook remained uncertain.

    The number of so-called 401(k) millionaires increased 17% to 262,000 from 224,000 in the second quarter, according to an analysis of more than 30 million retirement accounts at Fidelity provided exclusively to Yahoo Money. The number of IRA millionaires also increased by 15% to 234,000 from 204,000 in the second quarter, marking a 15% jump.

    The previous records for both were in the fourth quarter of 2019, when there were 233,000 401(k) millionaires and 208,000 IRA millionaires.

    There are a few things at play here, including basic market growth,” said Emily Franco, financial advisor at Fort Pitt Capital Group. “When comparing the third quarter 2019 to the third quarter 2020, we’ve seen the [stock market] indexes reaching close to all-time highs, despite the bumpy ride we had this spring and summer.”

    The increases occurred during July, August and September when more than 14 million Americans filed for jobless claims, according to data by the Federal Bank of Saint Louis. At the same time, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index increased about 8.1%.

    Retirement accounts overall got a boost
    For all retirement investors, their average account balances also increased. IRA balances rose 6% to $117,700 from the second quarter’s $115,000. This was a 7% uptick from a year ago at $110,200.

    401(k) balances had a slightly smaller increase. The average balance rose by 5% to $109,600 in the third quarter, up from $104,400 in the second quarter and up 4% from a year ago.

    [​IMG]
    The number of so-called 401(k) millionaires increased 17% to 262,000 from 224,000 in the second quarter, according to an analysis of more than 30 million retirement accounts at Fidelity Investments provided exclusively to Yahoo Money.
    About 9 in 10 investors also left their contribution rate to their retirement accounts unchanged, despute the unprecedented environment.

    “It’s encouraging to see average account balances increase slightly over the quarter and many individuals continuing to save in the face of the challenges posed by the pandemic, especially as many organizations, as well as their workers, are struggling in the current business environment,” said Kevin Barry, president of workplace investing at Fidelity Investments.

    Many boomers over-allocated in stocks
    The study also found that 38% of baby boomers were over-invested in stocks based on their age. But that kept them in position to reap the gains from near-market highs. About 1 in 12 of boomers were 100% invested in stocks.

    About a third of boomers did shift some of their savings into more conservative investments during the pandemic, the study found.

    Those who are on the higher-income end of the spectrum were more likely to invest a generous sum in stocks, Franco said.

    “While of course, this is a much easier goal to attain when you are a high-income individual, that does not mean it is unattainable for someone with a more modest income,” Franco said. “By maxing out your annual retirement contributions and staying invested even during market downturns, you increase your chances of having enough retirement assets left over to provide for both your own retirement and to pass on to future generations.”

    MY COMMENT

    ANYONE can achieve this. It only takes a few simple steps.....start young.....max out the contributions and matches.....invest in stocks and funds......for the long term. The key.....capturing "basic market growth" and let those returns compound. The same thing works.......just as well in non-retirement accounts. The GOVERNMENT loves this......turning low taxed long term capital gains accumulated over a lifetime......into.....higher taxed regular income. BUT.....with the elimination of pensions for non-government workers....this sort of retirement saving is critical.
     
    #2487 WXYZ, Nov 13, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2020
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TODAY.....has the "feel" of a low volume day. ALSO.....the "feel" of a day with no real confidence or commitment by the markets. The general direction is STILL UP.....so stocks are doing their duty and following that path.....but I dont see a lot of real belief on the part of investors, in general.

    WHY? We are STILL dealing with election FATIGUE and HANGOVER. In addition the doom&gloom is being pushed daily. This is......of course......normal, since it pushes clicks much more than positivity.

    ANOTHER observation......there are EXTREMELY FEW articles in any of the financial media about actual investing. In the past on a typical day I would find so many articles that I could not post them all. I would pick and choose what to post. NOW.....on a typical day.....there is nothing of value to post. I HOPE this is not going to be the norm going forward.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I AGREE with this little article. In fact.....we are already seeing a takeover of the new ADMIN by people from the various tech companies and tech company lobbyists. As an owner of most of the BIG names in the tech industry.....I EXPECT to do very well. The BIG CAP tech names are.....in my opinion....REQUIRED core holdings for any long term investor.

    Number of ‘tech giants’ will double in five years: LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numb...ars-linked-in-ceo-reid-hoffman-150056643.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "President-elect Joe Biden has signaled that his administration will take an aggressive posture toward big tech, which will likely include the pursuit of an ongoing antitrust lawsuit against Google (GOOG, GOOGL) as well as an effort to repeal liability protections for social media platforms like Facebook (FB).

    But observers wonder whether Biden will ultimately push to break up the tech giants altogether.

    In a new interview, LinkedIn co-founder and top Democratic donor Reid Hoffman cautioned against the breakup of major tech companies, arguing that their size strengthens the U.S. economy as big competitors ascend in China and elsewhere.

    Hoffman predicted that heightened competition in the tech sector will soon double the number of U.S. tech giants, even in the absence of strong intervention from the federal government.

    “The classic notion of an antitrust or a break up — I think those are generally speaking going to be actually in fact counter to American health and prosperity,” says Hoffman, a top tech investor in Silicon Valley at venture firm Greylock Partners.

    “We have maybe five tech giants today,” he adds. “Five years from now, we're going to have 10 tech giants.”

    In Washington D.C., scrutiny of the the four largest tech companies — Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Facebook, and Google — has escalated, including last month the release of a scathing House antitrust report and the opening of a Justice Department antitrust lawsuit against Google that alleges the company illegally ensured its dominance in search and search advertising.

    The push to address top tech firms has spared other major companies in the sector, like Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT). (Hoffman sits on the board of directors at Microsoft.)

    Meanwhile, a string of strong earnings reports from the tech giants in recent weeks showed thriving business amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced many Americans into their homes and induced further reliance on services like e-commerce and streaming entertainment. The tech giants have also propelled gains in the stock market.


    While “stay at home” tech stocks like Amazon and Facebook fell after news of promising initial data for a COVID-19 vaccine on Monday, they regained some of their losses later in the week.

    Hoffman predicted that the increasingly competitive sector will beget even more success stories, empowering small companies to join the ranks of the biggest firms.

    Competition between those tech giants is what creates lots of space for startups to either get their initial base, or to grow into being the 11th [tech giant], or to be bought by one of them,” he says.

    “That's part of the reason why I think — actually, in fact — the antitrust isn't the right thing,” he adds. “But figuring out how to contribute the right way to the health of our society and global society is the right thing.”

    He said he supports some regulation of tech companies, such as an effort to contain the spread of misinformation online. But he wants to ensure that the firms can continue to innovate.

    “You want to shape them,” he says. “What are the tools and sets we can do to build regulation to the outcomes we want? But don’t try to enshrine the past; allow adaptation into the future.”

    Hoffman spoke to Serwer in an episode of “Influencers with Andy Serwer,” a weekly interview series with leaders in business, politics, and entertainment.

    Setting aside Chinese firms, Hoffman cited U.S. companies like Airbnb and Salesforce (CRM) as among those that can grow into multi-faceted tech giants that compete across multiple product categories.

    Airbnb, a company in which Hoffman currently invests, is expected to go public by year’s end.

    “There's a range of these companies that can become a multi-part technology platform,” he says. “Then with China, you're going to see a ton more.”"

    MY COMMENT

    I agree in general with this article. We are just at the start of a TECH REVOLUTION. We need to NOT get caught up in OLD FASHIONED notions of antitrust that do not fit the modern business world. I REALLY have no feeling that the new admin will be anti-tech in the slightest. The number of people from the big tech companies that are ALREADY joining the new admin is proof that this industry.......in general......is going to be the number one POWER in guiding policy and regulation by the federal government over the next four years. There is a lot of posturing going on...but the REAL STORY is evident when you look at the numerous people being hired from the big tech companies into political positions. As an investor in these companies.....no problem.....I will take anything I am given.
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Put it like this. The current administration DESPISE big tech and they have gotten to astronomical highs. Now imagine the tech sector run by their favorite party....
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A very good point.....Zukodany.

    HERE is some of the case for a "value" rotation. Personally I believe even if VALUE STOCKS do make a come back.....the BIG CAP and TECH sides of the markets will still continue to be dominant market sectors and will still kick ass going forward for a good length of time.

    Finally Time for Value Stocks to Shine?

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1010720/finally-time-for-value-stocks-to-shine

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "With the U.S. elections behind us, the economic recovery on solid footing, and new positive data from Pfizer regarding the efficacy and safety of its vaccine, the stock market has rallied off its recent lows at the end of October.

    However, the market performance over the past few weeks has shifted from favoring the high-growth, large-cap stocks that propelled the markets higher earlier this year to small- and mid-cap value stocks.

    [​IMG]

    Value stocks have consistently lagged behind growth stocks over the past five years and especially during the pandemic, with growth stocks overperforming value stocks by more than 44%. However, that trend appears to have changed course over the past few weeks. The market rotation thus far in the fourth quarter is indicative of investors seeing a path toward economic normalization in 2021.

    During the second and third quarter, investors flocked to stocks of firms that would benefit from the changes that the novel coronavirus introduced to society. Thus far this quarter, stocks of those companies that had been harmed the most by the pandemic, and will rebound strongly as activity normalizes, have surged higher. Industries such as energy, financial services, and industrials have risen the most thus far in the quarter, while highfliers like the technology sector have lagged since the end of the third quarter.

    Economy to Normalize in 2021
    While the pandemic continues to pressure sectors that are adversely affected by social distancing practices, the U.S. economy has bounced off its lows.

    In the third quarter, U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annualized 33% rate, and we expect fourth-quarter GDP to expand at a 4.3% annualized rate. Based on our expectation that a vaccine will be approved and distributed over the first half of 2021, we expect economic activity to rebound by another 4.7% in 2021 and unemployment to fall to 4.9% by the end of next year. In fact, we expect that the nominal level of GDP will return to prepandemic levels by the end of the third quarter.

    As the vaccine is broadly distributed over the first half of 2021, in our economic outlook we incorporate our expectation that the consumer services sectors that have been hard-hit will recover meaningfully and normalize in the second half of the year.

    A Welcome Vaccine Update
    On Monday, Pfizer (PFE) and partner BioNTech (BNTX) reported favorable phase 3 data on vaccine BNT162b2, with an efficacy rate of over 90% and no major safety issues observed at an interim analysis. As such, we have increased the vaccine’s probability of approval to 90% from 60% in our model.

    With the vaccine’s efficacy over 90% and no major safety issues observed, we believe the regulatory agencies are likely to authorize it for emergency use in late 2020, followed by full approval in 2021 pending supportive final data.

    As the vaccine becomes broadly available over the first half of 2021, we expect that many of the industries that have been adversely affected by the pandemic will quickly rebound as pent-up demand drives utilization higher.

    Detailing Morningstar’s Equity Valuation
    From a broad market perspective, we see the market as slightly overvalued. According to the Morningstar Market Fair Value, stocks are generally about 4% overvalued. This metric measures the ratio of the price/fair value for the median stock over time.

    A ratio above 1.00 indicates that the stock’s price is higher than Morningstar’s estimate of its fair value. The further the price/fair value ratio rises above 1.00, the more the median stock is overvalued. A ratio below 1.00 indicates that the stock’s price is lower than our estimate of its fair value.

    [​IMG]

    While the overall market is slightly overvalued, we note that the valuation is skewed higher by a number of mega-cap stocks (companies with market caps of more than $200 billion) that we consider significantly overvalued. For example, there are a dozen companies which we rate as 1- or 2-stars in the mega-cap cohort. The Morningstar Rating for funds is based on a 5-point scale in which 5-star stocks are the most undervalued and 1-star stocks are the most overvalued.

    [​IMG]

    If you were to remove these stocks from the calculation, our market valuation metric would drop by 4%. Based on its outsize $2 trillion market cap, the broad market valuation would drop by 1.5% by just removing Apple (AAPL).

    In addition to the mega-cap stocks skewing valuation higher, we have also found that the dispersion of our fair value estimates as compared with market prices is wider now than last year. In fact, the standard deviation of the price/fair value metric has doubled from a year ago. The result is that we are seeing both a greater number of stocks that are significantly overvalued and greater number of stocks that are significantly undervalued.

    Based on our fundamental, bottom-up approach to valuing the broad stock market, we highlight our view that small- and mid-cap stocks in the value Morningstar Categories offered the most opportunities to investors in our fourth-quarter outlook. Across those stocks that we rate 4- or 5-stars, we still see a significant amount of undervaluation within these categories.

    [​IMG]

    Across our sector coverage, we continue to see the highest percentage of our 4- and 5-star stocks in the energy, consumer cyclical, and real estate sectors.

    [​IMG]

    The combination of reduced political risk and the expectation for a safe and effective vaccine to be rolled out in the first half of 2021 will hasten economic normalization next year. In this scenario, we expect small- and mid-cap stocks in the value category will outperform as their earnings rebound.

    Investors who want exposure to the small-cap stock category, but don’t want the risk of picking individual stocks, can utilize Morningstar’s fund research and tools to identify the appropriate funds for their portfolios."

    MY COMMENT

    One of the better examples of analysis that I have seen lately dealing with the value side of the markets in general. PROBABLY some truth in this article going forward. BUT......my investing interest and focus will continue to be the BIG CAP.....dominant.....stocks as usual.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE.....when I looked at my account about 1.5 hours to close it was green but sort of muddling along.....so-so. When I just looked after the close I see that there was a final hour SURGE that increased my GREEN by more than double for the day. A very nice finish to the day and the week. I did get beat by the SP500 by .76%.....but with the surprise increased gain at the close.....I am very satisfied.

    AND......a very nice week for the general averages and I presume ALL reasonable investors:

    SP500 year to date +10.97%
    DOW year to date +3.30%

    SP500 for the week +2.16%
    DOW for the week +4.08%

    We are on track for a POTENTIAL SP500 rally to end the year......and......I see an actual "probability" that we will end the year at +16-20%........OR HIGHER.......total return for the SP500. DOW is more problematic.....but......I see a "probability" for DOW +10-15%......or higher......total return for the year.

    SHOCKING......I know....that anyone would predict the above for 2020 with all that we have gone through. Anyone that looks back on a long term chart of the averages that includes 2020 will have NO IDEA of the events and issues that we struggled with. It will just look like a really good year for investors.

    ALSO......all the DOOM&GLOOM.......and......FEAR &PANIC.......bummer that the negative predictions are NOT HAPPENING. Just shows that you can NEVER anticipate what will happen.....and......the VALUE of being a long term, fully invested, all the time, investor. IMAGINE all the people siting on cash and waiting for that BIG MARKET correction to come back into the markets. By being FEARFUL....or....by trying to time the markets....they have missed out on a historic....ROCKET RALLY.
     
  13. Chris Eastman

    Chris Eastman Member

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    New to the forum. I read a bunch of this thread, and it is awesome. So lucky to have found you guys.

    Here’s my question — I’m one who bought the dip secured a healthy gain, and then jumped out. Since then the market has run up and I’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next dip.

    I’m so happy, for our country, for this world that Pfizer and other companies have progressed so quickly in finding a vaccine to COVID.

    Anyway, back to the point — how does one work their way back in? Dollar cost average over 6-12 months? Go in safely with an index?

    I need some ideas. And thank you!
     
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  14. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    That is exactly my plan for growing my wealth and investing. I would also like to have a commercial and residential rental in my portfolio at some point. I started at 23 so hopefully I can see this type of growth over the next 30-40 years.
     
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  15. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    Well if I had to guess what this forum will say. “All in all at once”. There is data to support not waiting and to go in right away. However, I think you should do what makes you comfortable and maybe dollar cost averaging is a good approach. But I don’t want to give specific advice without knowing your situation.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HELLO....Chris. Welcome and feel free to post any time on any investing, economic, money topic......or.....whatever.

    I dont know how long you have been sitting out.....hopefully not for many months. If so....depending on the size of your account....that could be some REAL money that has been lost in potential gains. BUT....the past is the past....as an investor....you just move on. AND.......you still have your money that has been sitting.

    HERE is how I see this issue.....FOR MYSELF......I cant tell you or anyone else what or how to invest. I am a long term, fully invested all the time, type of investor. My PORTFOLIO MODEL and reasoning is posted every so often in this thread. I am probably more aggressively invested than most people and have 45+ years of experience. So that is part of where I am coming from. I invest according to what I see as "PROBABILITY". On an issue like how to enter the markets I follow "PROBABILITY". I know from the vast majority of academic research that investing.....ALL IN ALL AT ONCE.....will beat trying to time the markets and dollar cost averaging. SO.....if I was siting today and wondering how to get back in.....I would simply invest the funds......ALL IN ALL AT ONCE....Monday. If you google........"does dollar cost averaging beat all in all at once investing"....you should see many many articles. If you looked at the actual.....statistically sound.....academic research....the answer is clear.

    FOR EXAMPLE:

    https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/three-things-know-about-dollar-cost-averaging
    "A 2012 study by Vanguard found that historically investing your money in a lump sum vs. dollar-cost averaging produced better results 66 percent of the time. The longer the time frame, the greater the chance that investing all at once beat dollar-cost averaging, the study found.

    “We conclude that if an investor expects such trends to continue, is satisfied with his or her target asset allocation, and is comfortable with the risk/return characteristics of each strategy, the prudent action is investing the lump sum immediately to gain exposure to the markets as soon as possible,” the Vanguard study authors wrote.


    NOW......many people just can not bring themselves to invest this decisively....even though the data backs it up. If I was one of those people I would dollar cost average my way back in. Personally.....I would NOT want to be out of the markets over the next months. BUT others......have to do what is right for them.

    There have been various times that I have bought stocks in this thread ALWAYS in accordance with the all in all at once approach. I do NOT regret a single one and ALL have done very nicely.........probably much better than others reading this thread thought those investments would have done.

    NOW as to what to invest in as you re-enter the market.....stocks?......and index fund?......that is a different question. Again.....if it was me....I would simply put the funds where I wanted them to be for the long term. BUT.....if I was not sure what I wanted to do with the money......I would at least put the funds in a SP500 Index Fund so I would have market exposure and would capture the gains going forward. Later as I decided how to invest those funds for the long term I would adjust the investment mix."

    Since I am NOT a short term trader......I ONLY invest long term money in stocks and funds. I DO NOT gamble short term money in stocks and funds.

    SO......the above is what......."I"......would do. The question is what "you" should do. For that you need to look at your risk tolerance, your investing experience, what type of money you are talking about, short, medium or long term, etc, etc.

    THERE IS NO WRONG ANSWER.....do what is right and comfortable for "you". AFTER you decide....come back on here and let us know what you did and why.

    ANYONE ELSE READING THIS.......how would you get back in if this was....."YOU".
     
    #2496 WXYZ, Nov 13, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2020
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    JWALKER......23 years old......wow. You have a GREAT OPPORTUNITY. TIME is the greatest advantage any investor can have. TIME is what DRIVES and POWERS compounding. It is all about the rule of 72's and DOUBLING your money......which is a function of time and rate of return.

    HERE is another....."PROBABILITY":

    "For the 92 years ended December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 Index posted positive calendar year returns 74% of the time and negative calendar year returns 26% of the time, with an average calendar year return of 21% over the positive years and -14% over the negative years. Think long term, diversification, and balance."

    SO......over a lifetime of investing you can.....PROBABLY....expect to be positive in the SP500 about 74% of the time year to year. I will take those odds......all day long, every day.
     
    #2497 WXYZ, Nov 13, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2020
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  18. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I am still sticking to my plan:

    I buy before New Year's regardless of what happens. In other words, if by mid December nothing seems imminent, I go all in. If it does hit the fan before then, I get discounts. Either way, I will be fully invested before people get wasted at midnight.

    1. Amazon 20%
    2. Nvidia 20%
    3. Tesla 15%
    4. Apple 10%
    5. Microsoft 10%
    6. Teladoc 5%
    7. Snowflake 5%
    8. Top 5 of ARKK 15%
     
    Syynik, Jwalker and WXYZ like this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds reasonable and rational.....ROAD.

    I am speculating.....but, sounds like you invest your funds once per year in mid to late December. I assume that is when you know what you have to put away in your investment account from the old year or for the new year. Or.....that is when you get a 401K match. Or that is when you fund your IRA or ROTH. Or....all the above.

    Sounds like you have plan and a strategy that you follow based on your needs and wishes and that is a GOOD THING. EVERYONE on this site is thinking about their needs, finances, money, future, and investments and that makes everyone on this site exceptional compared to a BIG CHUNK of the population that just FLOATS through life.

    HERE is an OLD example that most of us have seen before......but.....it is allways good to revisit GOOD SOUND THINKING. AND....for those that are young....this shows the power of long term thinking and long term investing and STARTING YOUNG.

    https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/how-teens-can-become-millionaires

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Adulting is sort of a mixed bag, isn’t it? On one hand, you can finally do what you want (make your own decisions, stay out as late as you want, and even rent a car on your own). On the other hand, you can start looking forward to the things that aren’t so fun: paying for the boring stuff like insurance, emergency root canals, and even those expensive light bulbs.

    With that in mind, we have one question for you: Are you ready to be financially responsible? If you answered yes, congrats—you’re ahead of the game! But if you answered no, don’t worry—there’s still plenty of time to set yourself up for a future of success. And we’re here to point you in the right direction.

    A Millionaire’s Best Friend: Compound Interest
    Millionaire. Sounds like a far-off dream, right? Actually, it’s more realistic than you might think. With hard work and intentional planning, you can become an everyday millionaire. One way to do that is by using a little money magic called compound interest.

    “You want your money to hang out with these two best friends: time and compound interest.” — Chris Hogan

    Here’s a little secret: Compound interest is a millionaire’s best friend. It’s free money. Seriously. But don’t take our word for it—let us introduce you to our friends Jack and Blake.

    When Jack turned 21, he decided to start investing $200 a month every year for nine years. At age 30, he decided to stop investing altogether. But his friend Blake started a little later, investing $200 a month every month starting at age 30, all the way until the ripe old age of 67.


    So at age 67, who do you think had more money in their account? Let’s do the math.


    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    At the end of nine years, Jack invested $21,600 and ended up with more than $2.5 million. Let’s say that again—$2.5 million! That’s the power of compound interest, friends.

    And Jack’s friend Blake invested a whopping $91,200 over the course of 37 years. At age 67, he had built up $1.4 million, but he never caught up with Jack.

    So how did Jack do it? He didn’t invest nearly as much as Blake did but ended up with over $1 million more. That’s the power of compound interest! It turns more than $20,000 invested in nine short years into almost $2.5 million over 37 years!

    You Can Be an Everyday Millionaire
    When you think of the word millionaire, you probably think of an older gentleman (or woman) sporting a fancy suit—pocket square included. Or you might think of people like Jay-Z and Beyoncé with their cool clothes and private jet.

    No matter what you see, it’s probably safe to assume that more millionaires are older rather than younger. But don’t assume that just because you’re young that you can’t start working toward that goal. In fact, the National Study of Millionaires found that “if members of younger generations are diligent over time, they can become net-worth millionaires in their own right.”

    Millionaires view investing as the primary tool for building wealth and securing financial independence. In fact, 80% of net-worth millionaires in the study said that investing in their employer-sponsored retirement plan was the main way they reached millionaire status. Meanwhile, 74% mentioned investing outside the company plan, and 73% mentioned the habit of saving money regularly.1

    What can you do? Start early. Start now. And if you’re not in your twenties—that’s okay. It’s never too late to start—even right now. "

    HERE IS ANOTHER SIMILAR EXAMPLE:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/suze-orman-why-you-should-start-investing-in-your-20s.html

    "the example of a 25-year-old who invests $100 a month in a Roth IRA for 40 years and earns a 12% average annual return. When that person retires at age 65, their investment will be worth just over $1 million.

    But not everyone starts putting money away in their 20s. “You think, ‘I don’t have to invest, I’m young,’” Orman says.

    If you start investing $100 per month at age 35, though, you’d only have around $300,000 by the time you reach age 65. “Those 10 years just cost you $700,000,” Orman points out."
     
  20. Chris Eastman

    Chris Eastman Member

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    This is a whole lot of exposure to mega cap tech stocks with a whole lot of potential at 6, 7, and 8. What makes you comfortable as an investor to drop 75% of your holdings on five stocks (Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft are definitely in my personal top ten, prob even top 5).

    I just don’t understand how someone gets to that level of conviction, not holding at least an S&P500 index. Obviously my risk tolerance is lower.
     

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