I had a BIg gain today....I got back all that I lost on Friday and a little bit more. I had a single RED stock today....AMZN. I also beat the SP500 by.......0.95%....on a big gain day.
Of course as I.......RAVE....over PLTR. With their RISK....there is always a chance that in the end we will all end up like this.....speaking of Steve Martin above.
I like this little article. One key reason a slowing economy isn't shaking stock market bulls https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Last week, fears over the US economy slowing more than initially thought took center focus as the major indexes experienced the worst single-day drop of the summer. That was the headline takeaway from the busiest week of data releases slated for the summer of 2025. But underneath the surface, there are still plenty of reasons to feel confident in the path higher for the S&P 500 (^GSPC), according to Wall Street strategists — a confidence that seemed to roar back on Monday as the S&P 500 jumped 1.5%. Besides the dour jobs report, investors also learned that the S&P 500 is pacing for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.3%, well above the 5% expected entering the reporting period, per FactSet data. On top of that, we heard Big Tech giants say they're set to spend another $364 billion in AI investments during 2026, and third quarter earnings estimates for the S&P 500 weren't slashed during the first month of the quarter for the first time in over a year. In other words, while the US economic growth story is taking hits, the fundamental driver of the AI-driven bull market is absolutely cooking. That made Mike Wilson and the equity strategy team at Morgan Stanley declare "we’re buyers of pullbacks," and that the team is bullish over the next 12 months. "While there's risk in the near-term, we are gaining confidence in our 12-month bullish view fueled by better earnings/cash flow growth," Wilson wrote. "The drivers include positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the [One Big Beautiful Bill], easy growth comparisons, and pent up demand for many sectors in the market." BlackRock's Investment Institute, led by Jean Boivin, wrote in a weekly market commentary note that there is a clear "tug-of-war" between the economic drag of tariffs and US corporate resilience driven by AI. They, too, are taking their signal from the latter. "Questions remain about who will pay for tariffs," Boivin's team wrote. "Early signs indicate a mix of consumers and companies. We think US corporate strength could cushion the blow and stay overweight the AI theme and U.S. stocks." In a research note summing up earnings reports seen from more than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies this quarter, Bank of America Securities head of US equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian wrote that the "AI arms race is alive and well." To Subramanian, the focus on AI growth continuing to inflect higher isn't all about tech stocks either. It could be a tailwind for a broadening of the stock market rally and support US economic growth. "Increased power usage from AI and the physical build out of data centers should also lead to more demand for electrification, construction, utilities, commodities, etc, ultimately creating more jobs."" MY COMMENT Of course I agree with the above. The BULL MARKET is alive and well. Everything is lined up as perfectly as possible for the next six months.....for business and the markets. It is as positive of a environment for stocks and investors as I have seen in a long time.
An interesting little article.....a window into social media....."some" young people and how they think.....human stupidity......and perhaps even the future of the country or the world. I find it interesting that nearly ALL the people featured in the article are.....WOMEN. Of course this is a very small sample and may just reflect the focus and/or bias of the writer of the article. Capitalism Isn't Why You're Unhappy Some young adults blame "capitalism" for just about everything. But it's only a convenient scapegoat. https://reason.com/2025/08/04/capitalism-isnt-why-youre-unhappy/
The early markets today.....NOTHING....significant going on in terms of news. LOTS of big momentum with EARNINGS being the key. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures nudge higher as Wall Street eyes earnings, trade tensions https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...t-eyes-earnings-trade-tensions-230420217.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stock futures pushed up on Tuesday as Wall Street regained its balance after a tumultuous week and braced for the next wave of corporate earnings. Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered around the flatline. Those on the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) rose 0.2%, and those tied to the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were up 0.3%. Palantir (PLTR) stock rose in premarket trading after the company's earnings report beat expectations and revealed its revenue had topped $1 billion in a quarter for the first time. On Monday, stocks sharply rebounded after tanking on Friday in the aftermath of a number of market-shaking events, including a weak jobs report, fresh tariffs, new signs of rising prices, and President Trump's firing of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, Trump continued to amp up pressure on trade Monday, threatening to hike tariffs on India. Wall Street is now focused on the continuation of earnings season. On Tuesday, AMD (AMD) and Rivian (RIVN) are set to report their results. McDonald's (MCD) and Disney (DIS) earnings land Wednesday. However, another trade blow looms later in the week, with Trump's latest iteration of global tariffs set to take effect. MY COMMENT Nothing big going on today other than EARNINGS. How refreshing to have a market that might actually focus on what is important......for once. Although I dont discount the ability of the short term to go off the rails and focus on meaningless short term...."stuff".
I have been waiting to see how PLTR opens today after earnings. Right now it is at......$173.15......+$12.49......or......+7.77%. BUMMER.....for those that I have seen over the past week or two....pushing the line that earnings would be a DUD and the stock would plummet. Looks like at some point today....in the short time the markets have been open....it hit a new 52 week high of.....$176.33. right now ass I edit this post it is at $174.89. YEA.....now lets see if this can hold for a WHOLE DAY.
I can tell I am having a good day today....although I do have a number of stocks in the RED.....MSFT, NVDA, and COST. As to.....NVDA....I am expecting this particular stock to go into the green shortly.....for the day. Not that the markets care one bit about my....expectations.
Why would they not be obsessed.....they are basically screwing their shareholders out of dividends. AND....the shareholders are dumb enough to think this is a good thing. AND....I would bet that if they gave this money to shareholders in the form of dividends.....the VAST MAJORITY of it would be reinvested in company stock.....in other words basically a positive for the stock......but one that actually benefits the shareholder. Corporate America remains obsessed with stock buybacks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-america-remains-obsessed-with-stock-buybacks-130608383.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tariffs and economic uncertainty haven't slowed corporate America's obsession with stock buybacks. The practice — which reduces a company's shares outstanding and helps boost earnings per share — hit a record-setting $165.63 billion in July, 88% higher than the previous peak in July 2007, according to new data from Birinyi Associates. Year-to-date buybacks now stand at $926.1 billion, $108 billion ahead of the previous year-to-date record set in 2022. "Corporate America continues to be one of the largest buyers of U.S. stocks and from their actions continues to have confidence in their business, despite unsettling tariff headlines," the Birinyi team wrote. The top three sectors of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) for buyback activity this year include Financials (XLF), Technology (XLK), and Communication Services (XLC). These three sectors have repurchased $689 billion of their stocks in 2025. Utilities (XLU) has been the most cautious repurchaser with $55 billion. July saw several large buyback announcements as markets climbed to records, Birinyi noted. JPMorgan (JPM) took pole position by announcing a $50 billion buyback as regulators have relaxed capital requirements for big banks. Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) announced $40 billion and $20 billion buybacks, respectively. Meanwhile, third quarter standouts include Meta (META) ($10.6 billion), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) ($13.6 billion), and Microsoft (MSFT) ($4.5 billion). Corporate America's love for share buybacks appears to be coming at the expense of handing out richer dividend checks to shareholders. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said in fresh research that S&P 500 dividend yields are now within just 20 basis points of their all-time low, last reached during the tech bubble in 2000. But Reid noted companies may be putting shareholder capital at risk by buying back stock with markets at all-time highs and economic uncertainty elevated. "Buybacks tend to occur more at market tops than bottoms, meaning companies often buy high, not low," Reid said. Shareholders enjoying the rapid pace of buybacks should keep a few things in mind as well, Reid explained. One, buybacks are much more discretionary and can vanish overnight in a downturn. Two, buybacks inflate EPS without necessarily improving true profitability. Three, buybacks may reduce investment in the business, especially if used to help meet executive compensation targets or earnings guidance. "I do care about dividends, and I like to see dividends on the stocks in our portfolios," Crossmark chief market strategist Victoria Fernandez told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "And so I think investors should be paying attention to this. It helps provide a little bit of a buffer to the volatility that you see in the marketplace." Join top investors and newsmakers at Yahoo Finance Invest on November 12–13 in NYC as they discuss the agenda for success in 2026. Register to attend today." MY COMMENT Somehow the financial media and large companies have FOOLED investors into giving up dividends.....and additional shares if they are reinvested.....for this buy-back BS. Most of this money is not really doing anything to benefit shareholders since it often goes to.....EXECUTIVES and company insiders. it is very RARE to see any of this....."extra money".....going to actually buy capital assets that would actually benefit the shareholders and business.
WELL....in general the markets are now MIXED....with the DOW and the SP500 in the RED. We are seeing much of the positivity of the open....dissipate. I am melting....I am melting.
A SMALL gain for me today. On the backs of PLTR, HD, and AMZN....but mostly PLTR. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by....0.54% today.
Today had so much promise at the open. But it just faded away....based on minor economic data and tariff drama. Stuff that no one really cares about....but the market used it as an excuse. We move on from here.
AMD Earnings After Hours. This should give a little insight into what the chip producers are encountering.
After earnings yesterday PLTR now trades at.....110X forward Free Cash Flow. The internet tells me that forward PE is now.....276. In addition they hold over SIX BILLION in cash and ZERO debt. Palantir Q2 Earnings: I'm Dumbfounded, But 110x FCF Is Still Cheap https://seekingalpha.com/article/4808625-palantir-earnings-still-cheap "Summary Palantir remains a buy due to its strong fundamentals and an adjusted PEG ratio of 3.1x, making it cheaper than many believe. Revenue growth is accelerating, with Q2 up 48% year-over-year and U.S. commercial revenue surging 93%, supporting a bullish outlook for 2026. Despite a rich valuation at 110x forward free cash flow, Palantir's path to $3.5 billion FCF and 35%+ growth justifies upside potential. Key risks include valuation compression if growth slows and U.S. market saturation, but execution could lead to significant long-term gains. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Learn More » Investment Thesis Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is still a buy. I can't imagine I'd make this contention on the back of these results. I'm dumbfounded. What's more, I'm saying this objectively, as someone who has, numerous times over the years, bought and sold Palantir, and today has no skin in the game. In a sentence, this is my bull case: Palantir is on a PEG ratio (adjusted with FCF) of 3.1x. What does this mean in practice? It means that this business is cheaper than many believe it is. Now, read on to understand my thinking behind my buy rating. Rapid Recap Last time I went long Palantir, I nailed a 25% return in 4 months. But even better than that, consider the dates over which I held PLTR. Into and out of Liberation Day! To make that return in that period was impressive. At least that's what I believe. And it truly aided my performance, as Deep Value Returns subscribers can attest to. Deep Value Returns Meanwhile, you can read my free thoughts on SA's site here. Palantir's Near-Term Prospects Palantir is by now a household name amongst investors. A supercharged software platform that helps companies and governments use AI to solve real-world problems. The general idea of its offering is that it takes messy data from all over the place, organizes it in a smart way, and then deploys AI around it to help people make better, faster decisions. I know that for investors, it now appears that AI is the buzzword that gets a lot of companies a premium valuation. But for Palantir, they are delivering fundamentals that back their rhetoric. Whether it’s stopping, managing a hospital, or coordinating the U.S. military, Palantir’s value is in turning raw data into real, actionable insight—fast. Indeed, take this quote from the earnings call: AIP isn't just software our customers use, it's software, our customers are building their software on. Software companies are re-platforming away from the highly unopinionated services and building blocks of the hyperscaler stack onto AIP with its highly opinionated building blocks that get you to value 10x faster. Simply put, their customers don’t just use the software; they actually build their own tools on top of it. And that's the bull case, in a nutshell. And now, let's discuss its fundamentals. Revenue Growth Rates Imply More Than 35% Y/Y for 2026 PLTR revenue growth rates Palantir’s growth engine is firing on all cylinders right now. In Q2, revenue was up 48% year-over-year, and U.S. commercial revenue alone surged 93%. Even more impressive is the momentum going forward—management just raised full-year guidance again, now expecting 45% growth in 2025! And the way things are accelerating, 2026 could be the year Palantir settles into a strong, sustained rhythm of 35%+ annual growth. With customer demand compounding and contract values hitting new highs, it's possible that in 2026 revenues will come in a full 10% higher than analysts' current estimates. Given that framework, let's now discuss its valuation. PLTR Stock Valuation – 110x Next Year's Free Cash Flow As an Inflection investor, I'm drawn to companies with strong balance sheets. I find that backing companies with at least 5% of their market caps made up of cash often provide the bull case with an added margin of safety. On this front, Palantir holds a massive war chest of approximately $6 billion in cash and marketable securities and no debt. Admittedly, this only amounts to a paltry 2% of its market cap being made up of cash, which means that I'm having to compromise slightly on my Inflection setup. However, it's not a deal-breaker. And what's more, this strong balance sheet provides Palantir with substantial maneuverability, particularly given that Palantir is a free cash flow machine. Indeed, objectively, I don't think that anyone is debating that Palantir makes a ton of money. But there are debates over how much free cash flow is realistic in the near term. And that's where opinions get rapidly divided. Here's my thinking. Right now, the business is delivering a 57% free cash flow margin. This means that it's possible that in 2026, Palantir could get its free cash flow margin to 60%. As a result, it's entirely possible that Palantir could deliver $3.5 billion of free cash flow in 2026. And yet, even if Palantir doesn't quite reach this free cash flow figure in 2026, there's no doubt a path for Palantir to get there very soon in early 2027. So, it's just a question of when. But the path is there, no doubt. Here's my math. Assuming that in 2026 Palantir grows its revenues by 35% y/y and delivers 60% free cash flow margins. This would mean that its revenue would get to around $5.7 billion, and with 60% free cash flow margins, its free cash flow would reach very roughly $3.5 billion. This means that Palantir is being priced at 110x forward free cash flow. Now, before readers start getting too hot-headed and calling this overpriced, consider this. On an adjusted PEG ratio, the business is priced at roughly 3.1x, where I typically find that anything below 3x to be worthwhile considering. Here's how I calculate the adjusted PEG ratio. I use FCF rather than earnings, which you may see on different websites. So, if you take the 110x FCF multiple and divide it by my estimated 35% CAGR for 2026, you get 3.1x. So, we are just on the cusp of a valuation that I would typically consider highly investable. Risk Factors to Consider The risk here is the most obvious aspect. Right now, everything is going right for Palantir. This business is a business that, for many fans, can do no wrong. And as such, for now, I believe that this valuation is entirely justified. But what happens when, at some point, for some reason, Palantir has a bad quarter? The business could very rapidly go from being priced at 110x forward free cash flow to around 80x forward free cash flow, get a 30% haircut on its valuation, and the stock would still be viewed by many as incredibly expensive. Furthermore, at 80x forward free cash flow, there would still be many investors who would struggle to call Palantir a bargain. So, valuation is undoubtedly a risk. The other consideration is that while their U.S. business is booming, international growth has been slower. As such, this begs the question: does it get to a point where their U.S. business reaches saturation? Because if this is just a pure play on the U.S., could we see its revenue growth rates decelerate in 2026, as a lot of its future growth was pulled into 2025? The Bottom Line At the end of the day, I see Palantir as a high-quality business with a long runway for growth. The fundamentals are there: accelerating revenue, massive U.S. commercial momentum, and world-class free cash flow generation. Yes, the valuation is rich at 110x forward free cash flow, and that alone will keep some investors on the sidelines. But when I look at the potential for 35%+ revenue growth in 2026, with a path to $3.5 billion in free cash flow and an adjusted PEG ratio around 3.1x, I believe there’s still upside here. That said, I’m realistic. This isn’t a slam dunk if growth slows or the market turns risk-off. But if Palantir executes as I think it can, then even with today’s premium multiple, I see this as a stock that’s got plenty of room to run." MY COMMENT What else is new....although as earnings BEATS rack up for PLTR.......it looks better and better.
Non-poitical commentary on the markets is getting harder and harder to find. Some sites that I read used to be just about ALL market and investing content......NOW.....it is just about ALL infected with politics. Unfortunately that is just how things are in the modern MEDIA world. I am NOT going to put up this article because it has too much political discussion....although that discussion is pretty mild......I still dont like it. SO.....I am going to say I agree with the headline and I agree with the portions that I quote......and....I am totally in line with the content on eliminating INCOMPETENCE.....which has been RAMPANT regardless of who was in office. Is The BLS Corrupt, Or Just Hopelessly Incompetent? https://issuesinsights.com/2025/08/05/is-the-bls-corrupt-or-just-hopelessly-incompetent/ ".......Even for government work, the BLS has been breathtakingly bad at its job, something we’ve been reporting on this space for years. Back in 2023, we noted that the BLS had been vastly overcounting jobs created since Joe Biden took office by as much as 77,000 a month. In the first five months of 2024, the BLS had exaggerated monthly job growth by a cumulative total of 250,000, we noted in July of that year. Between January 2023 and October 2024, the BLS’s monthly estimate of jobs created was off by a total of 684,000, we pointed out last November. And these figures don’t count the “benchmark” revisions issued by the BLS, in which they go back and reset all the data for a year. In its latest revision, it cut the number of jobs created from April 2023 through October 2024 by 598,000........" AND....as to 2025. ".....A review of its reports this year shows that its initial job estimates from January through June were off by a total of 693,000 jobs. It cut its estimate of jobs created in May by 109,000 and those created in June by a whopping 258,000......" AND. ".....This isn’t just a problem of optics. These wildly inaccurate employment numbers can have ripple effects throughout the economy, particularly if the Fed is using them to guide interest rate decisions......" AND. "......There is something seriously wrong with the way the BLS produces its job estimates. As our friends and Unleash Prosperity put it, “The BLS’s jobs estimates are increasingly unreliable snapshots of what is going on in the real economy. The monthly revisions shoot up and mostly way down from the initial headline numbers more than ever.”......" MY COMMENT BOTTOM LINE......there is Absolutely NO reason to support and retain a leader of a critical agency that can not do it's job properly. FIX THE PROBLEM.
The above is....fortunately now...... OLD NEWS....the media has moved on to other topics as usual. Today the markets appear to have moved on from the jitters of yesterday....at least at the open. We are GREEN across the board in the big averages. We SQUANDERED what should have been a big day yesterday....as a follow up to PLTR earnings..... with focus on minor economic data and tariffs...in the media. NO ONE CARES......BUT.....the media does have the power to drive the short term markets UP or DOWN....more often DOWN. Of course the media.....even the financial media.....has no interest in the long term or big picture.
THIS....is what the markets should care about......in a perfect world. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq inch higher as earnings take center stage https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-as-earnings-take-center-stage-233644959.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks pushed higher on Wednesday amid another batch of corporate earnings and as President Trump's new deadline loomed to impose tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered near the flatline, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged up 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was up around 0.3% Earnings season continued apace on Wednesday, with Disney's (DIS) third-quarter results taking the spotlight. Disney beat Wall Street estimates on strong parks and streaming showings. Separately, it announced a deal to buy media assets from the NFL, further entangling itself with the league. Meanwhile, AMD (AMD) stock tumbled after its mixed showing on Tuesday, somewhat dragging on shares of its rival and market leader Nvidia (NVDA). McDonald's (MCD) stock rose after the company reversed its US sales slump. And Uber (UBER) announced a revenue beat along with a $20 billion stock buyback. Airbnb (ABNB), DoorDash (DASH) and Lyft (LYFT) are among the names to report after the market closes." MY COMMENT The historic earnings continue....even if they are often IGNORED.
A nice little APPLE announcement today. Apple to pledge $100 billion for US manufacturing https://www.reuters.com/business/re...cturing-white-house-official-says-2025-08-06/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) will announce a domestic manufacturing pledge of $100 billion on Wednesday that will focus on bringing more manufacturing to the United States, a White House official said. The pledge would be a new financial commitment, the official said on the customary condition of anonymity. It comes as President Donald Trump pursues an aggressive tariff and trade agenda aimed at moving some manufacturing back into the United States. Apple said in February it would spend $500 billion in U.S. investments in the next four years that will include a giant factory in Texas for artificial intelligence servers while adding about 20,000 research and development jobs across the country."....... MY COMMENT I have edited this down to what counts....at least to me.
I have a nice BIG gain going so far today....with a single RED stock...MSFT. Now if only the market can hang on and ENDURE the media today till the close.
Ok...I just got back and see that....I got the BIG GAIN in my account today....that I expected to get yesterday. All my stocks were GREEN except for MAST. AND....I beat the SP500 today by.....0.82%. I have to look....but I am sure I am probably at a new all time high today. Can we PLEASE move forward with a GREAT BIG WEEK.....and ignore the short term media BS?
