We are ALL RED today.....and I expect this weakness to continue for a little while....perhaps even a few weeks. As usual....it seems to happen way more than you would expect based on "chance".......we are seeing a very negative AI and TECH story-line right at the time of NVDA earnings. What a waste.....but typical of the short term. Nasdaq falls for a second day as tech struggles again https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks dipped on Wednesday, pressured by a broad decline in tech for the second day in a row. Investors also monitored a mixed batch of retail earnings and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes release. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 1.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 47 points, or 0.1%. Investors continued to take profits from several heavyweight technology and semiconductor names, fanning concerns about their high valuations and the strength of the AI trade longer term. Nvidia declined about 3%, while Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom each lost more than 3.5%. Shares of Palantir declined about 5.5%, and Intel dropped more than 6%. Mega-cap tech companies Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta also declined. On the earnings front, Target shares dropped more than 8% — making the stock the S&P 500′s worst performer — after the retailer reported another decline in sales and announced a new CEO who will step into the role on Feb. 1. Lowe’s, meanwhile, edged higher after the home improvement retailer’s earnings beat expectations. Investors are awaiting July meeting minutes from the Fed due at 2 p.m. ET. At the time, policymakers once more held steady on interest rates, but Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, marking the first time two voting Fed officials have done so since 1993. That comes ahead of remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, which investors will monitor for insights into the path of interest rates. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 85% likelihood of the central bank cutting interest rates at its next policy gathering in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. “Stock market valuations are full right now leaving little wiggle room for disappointment. The stock market is currently discounting a bright future ahead, and that assessment is largely justified thanks to earnings, which have been much stronger than originally expected and increasing clarity on trade and tax policy,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth. “Investors have high hopes that Jerome Powell will use Jackson Hole to set the stage for a September rate cut, given the recent weakness in the labor market data.” The major U.S. indexes are in the red for the week so far. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq pulled back on Tuesday as tech losses piled up." MY COMMENT Typical nasty short term BS happening right now. BUT....considering the year we have had it is not unexpected. We are past due for a little bump in the road or a micro-correction.
It has been an EPIC earnings season so far....here is the last data I can find with a quick, down and dirty, search. Important Data Ninty percent of companies have now reported and we are seeing that, 81% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive EPS surprise and 81% reported a positive revenue surprise. • Growth: The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.8%. If this holds it will mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. • Guidance: For Q3 2025, 38 S&P 500 companies issued negative EPS guidance......40 S&P 500 have issued positive EPS guidance. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_080825.pdf MY COMMENT It has been a reporting season of HISTORIC earnings. BUT.....you will rarely see much about it in the media. In the not too distant past having a POSITIVE RATE of EIGHTY ONE percent....on Revenue and EPS..... would be all over the media......and the talk to Wall Street. Now......never mind.
Do you see a COMMON THEME in the above? Media, Media, Media.....is the one constant. AND....not in a good way. The media and quality of reporting is now way below the old National Enquirer.......with photos of presidents on the cover meeting with aliens. The day to day media is in the GARBAGE CAN with their totally opinion and sensationalism based stories that are nothing but click-bait. Journalism......no longer exists. Just another part of the modern world that we have to navigate and ENDURE as long term investors. The bad news.......this media BS.....is only going to get worse over time...it never gets better. ENDURE, ENDURE, ENDURE.
One last little story that is representative of where we are in the Media right now and where their focus is (clicks). Costco's Pepsi-to-Coke switch goes viral as members sound off Soda switch began rolling out across Costco warehouses in early July https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/costcos-pepsi-to-coke-switch-goes-viral-members-sound-off YES.....this is a major headline story on Fox-Business today....top of the page.
I admire people who can think a new CEO is going to turn a company around. We see these optimists all the time. Historically, the number of companies that have been saved is low and the number of companies that have been turned around to prosper is essentially zero. And yet, people continue to chant, "I feel lucky! This time, it's going to work!" Boeing/Kodak/Intel are not going to turn around, despite my desperate wishes they would. There are a few outliers: Apple - Jobs bought Apple for 17 dollars and some pocket lint in 97. Gil Amelio was clearly incapable of operating a lemonade stand. Ford - Alan Mulally surely saved Ford from bankruptcy in 06 and navigated the GFC better than any previous executive could have. Marvel Entertainment - Ike Perlmutter got Marvel for free by offering to merge his company with Marvel and steer it out of chapter 11. This isn't quite the same as other stories in that he had an entire successful organization to help him fix the failed one. Still, it's a rags to riches corporate recovery story that was used as the story line for the Dr. Strange franchise of movies.
