We are ALL RED today.....and I expect this weakness to continue for a little while....perhaps even a few weeks. As usual....it seems to happen way more than you would expect based on "chance".......we are seeing a very negative AI and TECH story-line right at the time of NVDA earnings. What a waste.....but typical of the short term. Nasdaq falls for a second day as tech struggles again https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks dipped on Wednesday, pressured by a broad decline in tech for the second day in a row. Investors also monitored a mixed batch of retail earnings and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes release. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 1.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 47 points, or 0.1%. Investors continued to take profits from several heavyweight technology and semiconductor names, fanning concerns about their high valuations and the strength of the AI trade longer term. Nvidia declined about 3%, while Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom each lost more than 3.5%. Shares of Palantir declined about 5.5%, and Intel dropped more than 6%. Mega-cap tech companies Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta also declined. On the earnings front, Target shares dropped more than 8% — making the stock the S&P 500′s worst performer — after the retailer reported another decline in sales and announced a new CEO who will step into the role on Feb. 1. Lowe’s, meanwhile, edged higher after the home improvement retailer’s earnings beat expectations. Investors are awaiting July meeting minutes from the Fed due at 2 p.m. ET. At the time, policymakers once more held steady on interest rates, but Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, marking the first time two voting Fed officials have done so since 1993. That comes ahead of remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, which investors will monitor for insights into the path of interest rates. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 85% likelihood of the central bank cutting interest rates at its next policy gathering in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. “Stock market valuations are full right now leaving little wiggle room for disappointment. The stock market is currently discounting a bright future ahead, and that assessment is largely justified thanks to earnings, which have been much stronger than originally expected and increasing clarity on trade and tax policy,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth. “Investors have high hopes that Jerome Powell will use Jackson Hole to set the stage for a September rate cut, given the recent weakness in the labor market data.” The major U.S. indexes are in the red for the week so far. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq pulled back on Tuesday as tech losses piled up." MY COMMENT Typical nasty short term BS happening right now. BUT....considering the year we have had it is not unexpected. We are past due for a little bump in the road or a micro-correction.
It has been an EPIC earnings season so far....here is the last data I can find with a quick, down and dirty, search. Important Data Ninty percent of companies have now reported and we are seeing that, 81% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive EPS surprise and 81% reported a positive revenue surprise. • Growth: The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.8%. If this holds it will mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. • Guidance: For Q3 2025, 38 S&P 500 companies issued negative EPS guidance......40 S&P 500 have issued positive EPS guidance. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_080825.pdf MY COMMENT It has been a reporting season of HISTORIC earnings. BUT.....you will rarely see much about it in the media. In the not too distant past having a POSITIVE RATE of EIGHTY ONE percent....on Revenue and EPS..... would be all over the media......and the talk to Wall Street. Now......never mind.
Do you see a COMMON THEME in the above? Media, Media, Media.....is the one constant. AND....not in a good way. The media and quality of reporting is now way below the old National Enquirer.......with photos of presidents on the cover meeting with aliens. The day to day media is in the GARBAGE CAN with their totally opinion and sensationalism based stories that are nothing but click-bait. Journalism......no longer exists. Just another part of the modern world that we have to navigate and ENDURE as long term investors. The bad news.......this media BS.....is only going to get worse over time...it never gets better. ENDURE, ENDURE, ENDURE.
One last little story that is representative of where we are in the Media right now and where their focus is (clicks). Costco's Pepsi-to-Coke switch goes viral as members sound off Soda switch began rolling out across Costco warehouses in early July https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/costcos-pepsi-to-coke-switch-goes-viral-members-sound-off YES.....this is a major headline story on Fox-Business today....top of the page.
I admire people who can think a new CEO is going to turn a company around. We see these optimists all the time. Historically, the number of companies that have been saved is low and the number of companies that have been turned around to prosper is essentially zero. And yet, people continue to chant, "I feel lucky! This time, it's going to work!" Boeing/Kodak/Intel are not going to turn around, despite my desperate wishes they would. There are a few outliers: Apple - Jobs bought Apple for 17 dollars and some pocket lint in 97. Gil Amelio was clearly incapable of operating a lemonade stand. Ford - Alan Mulally surely saved Ford from bankruptcy in 06 and navigated the GFC better than any previous executive could have. Marvel Entertainment - Ike Perlmutter got Marvel for free by offering to merge his company with Marvel and steer it out of chapter 11. This isn't quite the same as other stories in that he had an entire successful organization to help him fix the failed one. Still, it's a rags to riches corporate recovery story that was used as the story line for the Dr. Strange franchise of movies.
I missed the whole afternoon. I want in to the studio about 11:00 and just got home. I see that I did not miss a thing important. Perhaps there was a bit of a bounce back from the morning....but still negative averages to end the day. It was a small/medium loss for me today. I ended up way better than where I was sitting this morning when I left. I got beat by the SP500 today by.....0.31%. Looks like today was....stop the bleeding day....hopefully.
Here is the story of the past week......first....take aggressive SHORT positions and attack PLTR, NVDA, and some other big tech stocks. Than release a report.....on PLTR......and.....the future of the AI boom.....with nothing new......as media chum. Than have all your friends and other morons in the media jump on the report as....."news". Of course time the above for maximum impact in the last weeks of August when half of Wall Street in on vacation and the markets are very shallow. The shallow market emphasizes the short positions. Palantir’s Miserable Week Mints Billions for Struggling Shorts https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pala...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I AND.....BINGO....watch those short positions pay off. And....you have the tech side of the markets especially PLTR nad NVDA....under Short Attack. "(Bloomberg) — Palantir Technologies Inc.’s six-session stock-market losing streak has wiped out $73 billion in market value, handing a rare win to short sellers who are getting pounded after betting against this year’s Wall Street juggernaut. Since hitting a record on Aug. 12, shares of the data analysis and software firm are down more than 17%. It’s their longest losing streak since April 2024, putting the stock on track for its worst week since the tariff tantrum in early April of this year. The drop has given short sellers more than $1.6 billion in profits, according to data from S3 Partners LLC. But that barely dents the $4.5 billion in paper losses traders have put up betting against Palantir this year, S3 data shows. While the stock is the worst performer in the S&P 500 Index over the past six sessions, it remains the benchmark’s biggest gainer for 2025 after soaring 106%. That climb has pushed Palantir shares to a nosebleed valuation. Yet, contrarian traders have largely bailed on their bets against the stock over the past year because the momentum appears to be unceasing. Short interest as a percentage of Palantir’s float, a measure of how many shares are available to borrow and bet against, has fallen to about 2.5% from nearly 5% a year ago. This suggests that short sellers covered their positions as the stock rose, according to Matthew Unterman, managing director of S3 Partners LLC. “They either wanted to avoid being run over by a monster momentum trade or were forced out after the freight train hit,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. The recent decline in Palantir’s stock price is part of a wider drop in mega-cap technology companies that’s weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes, as investors take some profits off the table and rotate into less expensive parts of the market. “The selloff that we’re seeing in Palantir, it’s long overdue and it’s not because the short sellers have taken over,” Vikram Rai, portfolio manager and macro trader at Fny Capital Management LP. “When you have the likes of Google, Meta and Microsoft declining, then obviously the high-beta stocks, which are hopelessly overvalued, will decline more.” Long-oriented investors have driven most of the upside in Palantir shares this year, as opposed to a short squeeze, where traders betting against a stock rush to buy it and get out of their trades before it goes any higher. That said, signs are emerging that short sellers are gradually starting to ramp up bets against Palantir as the stock shows some weakness. Since the beginning of June, short interest has increased by about 10 million shares, according to S3 data. The Denver-based company has roughly 2.3 billion shares outstanding. And even if the stock snaps its losing streak sometime soon, Wall Street pros say contrarian trading in Palantir could keep ticking higher along with the share price. “If Palantir rallies even a bit, you will see the short seller is coming” back, Rai said, adding that he’d be cautions about stepping into a short position. “The stock has shown its hand, for lack of a better term, that there is a downward trend.”" MY COMMENT This short attack is against the entire big cap tech sector. The "professionals" think they are over-valued. I think in general the big cap tech companies are at just the start of a technological revolution that will change the world. NO WAY.....I am not selling anything. In fact.......in one of the accounts that I manage for family.......I added NVDA, MSFT, and AMZN shares about 10:00 this morning.
I note that after today PLTR.......has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 193 .......a definite move toward sanity for PLTR.....but still high.
Same old media BS driving the markets today. The FED and the short attack on tech stocks. WMt did not help much either. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq retreat after jobless data, Walmart earnings miss https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow led US stocks lower on Thursday, with Walmart (WMT) earnings in focus before the start of the Federal Reserve's closely watched gathering at Jackson Hole. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 0.6%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved down more than 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped about 0.4%, as the exodus from tech stocks eased Walmart (WMT) capped the week's earnings from retail giants, raising its full-year forecast for sales and profit after its second quarter results showed its low-price push was drawing in shoppers. But its quarterly profit fell short of high expectations, and its shares slipped. Meanwhile, a continued slide in Big Tech stocks is still a worry, even after the Nasdaq on Wednesday showed signs of a reprieve, coming firmly off session lows as buyers jumped in. Short sellers have reaped over $5 billion from bets against techs as AI fears rippled through markets. Dimmed rate-cut hopes are also weighing on minds after minutes from the Fed's July meeting signaled that sticky inflation rather than a faltering labor market is the main concern for policymakers. There was broad support for holding rates steady, despite a growing divide at the Fed. Amid that rate debate, jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 15 rose to 235,000, versus expectations for 225,000. Continuing claims jumped to 1.97 million, a notch above the 1.96 million anticipated by economists. The Fed kicks off its Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers from around the world later on Thursday, with the countdown on to Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech on Friday. The gathering is taking place as President Trump puts public pressure on the Fed, most recently calling for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign. Cook has said she won't be "bullied to step down"." MY COMMENT I am doubtful that we will see a rate cut in September. In fact it would not surprise me to see ZERO rate cuts this year. The FED is simply flying blind and has no clue what they or the economy are doing. This is how you send a good economy into a car wreck. We will continue to be in a semi-weak market for the rest of August. It is a very shallow market that is easy to manipulate right now for traders.
Powell will talk on Friday.....it will be good to get past this BALONEY that is impacting the general markets. YES....the FED are MORONS and it is completely ridiculous how much power they have to impact stocks and funds. BUT....the media circus loves them for click-bait content.....and we are stuck with them.
Here is another group of morons that simply need to STFU and go away. Economic impact of US tariffs will be key for US rating, says S&P analyst https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-impact-us-tariffs-key-131342925.html
NOT that I trust or believe GOLDMAN in the slightest. These big banks are TOTALLY consumed with their own self-interest......and that means short term trading. Goldman Traders Say It’s Time to Buy the Dip in Momentum Stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-traders-time-buy-dip-093000028.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) — Sharp losses in high-flying momentum stocks may present a dip-buying opportunity if history is any guide, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk. The traders cited rebounds after similar prior losses in Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket, coupled with the current technical setup. When the long-short momentum basket dropped 10% or more over a five-day span in the past, it proceeded to rise in the following week 80% of the time, the traders wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. The median return was 4.5% in the next week and more than 11% in the next month. Goldman SachsSource: Goldman Sachs The sudden unwind in the momentum strategy, which focuses on buying recent winners and selling short those that are lagging behind, first came amid a rally in the basket’s stocks meant to be shorted. But its declines this week were powered more by losses in the long leg of the basket “as themes such as AI feel the pain of this rotation,” Goldman’s traders wrote. The basket fell 13% from Aug. 6 through Aug. 19 after trading near an all-time high. The traders also parsed through technical charts for clues on what could stop the selloff in the momentum trade. The momentum basket is trading near an oversold territory and is approaching the bottom of its so-called regression channel, which is basically the lower boundary of an existing trend. The basket also fell below its 200-day moving average, the level that could serve as a major support. “It could be a good entry point into the historically rewarded factor, unless tech earnings next week drive a prolonged AI selloff,” Goldman’s traders wrote. Nvidia Corp., the biggest member in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes, is scheduled to release its quarterly results on Aug. 27. Some of the stock market’s biggest losers in the past three days include Palantir Technologies Inc., which fell 12%, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Super Micro Computer Inc., which lost 6% or more. Nvidia fell just 2.8% during that time, but its heavy weighting in benchmark indexes made it a drag on the market. Those stocks “were among the year’s most crowded trades, built on optimism toward AI and speculative momentum, making them vulnerable to swift reversals,” Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, wrote in a note. The selloff in the momentum factor, which includes high-flying AI stocks on the long side of the basket, comes amid a variety of concerns in the market including soaring valuations, stretched positioning and increasing competition from China. The Nasdaq 100 Index is trading at 27 times expected 12-month profits, almost a third above its long-term average. Meanwhile, China’s warnings to tech firms to avoid one of Nvidia’s chips and a drop in cloud-computing company CoreWeave Inc.’s shares after its earnings report were among other recent headwinds to momentum stocks. Another source of concern for tech investors cropped up this week as a Massachusetts Institute of Technology report found that most generative AI initiatives implemented to drive revenue growth are falling flat and only 5% of generative AI pilots are delivering profit. Still, this isn’t the only stumble for Goldman’s High-Beta Momentum basket this year: This is its fourth retreat of more than 10% in 2025. “The recent decline in momentum is indicative of how the factor has been trading all year. It’s been a frustrating and choppy trade through all of 2025,” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Christopher Cain. “While the recent decline could be a tactical opportunity, we also point out that that high momentum stocks are showing some of the most expensive valuations compared to low momentum in history.”" MY COMMENT What a bunch of meaningless BS......totally gobbledy-gook.....in how these people talk and think. NO......I am never going to do anything based on what I see out of one of the big bank......(legal)....market manipulators.
At least there is some good news if you are looking to buy a house. Mortgage rates drop to 2025 low The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.58% this week, the lowest level since October 2024. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-drop-to-2025-low-160119603.html The above is a perfectly NORMAL long term 30 year mortgage rate. right in line with historic norms. Anyone that is waiting for rates to dip down to the 4% range or below is going to be waiting a long, long, time.....decades if not more. Those extreme LOW rates are far below normal over the past 50-60 years. They are gone.....for whatever reason you missed out.....deal with it....move on.
Markets are RED across the board.....as expected. At least I am seeing NOTHING about PLTR or the failure of AI today.....as the short attackers driven articles in the media seem to have disappeared.
I am actually starting the day with a majority of my nine stocks in the green.....HD, GOOGL, MSFT, PLTR, and NVDA are all green to start the day.....a welcome change.....even if it fades over the rest of the day. The gains above are slight....so where we go from here today is a BIG unknown.....as is typical for the short term.
Speaking of home buyers and the housing markets. July home sales rise as prices approach inflection point https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/21/july-home-sales-rise-as-prices-approach-inflection-point.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Sales of previously owned homes rose 2% in July, according to the National Association of realtors. There were 1.55 million homes for sale at the end of July, an increase of 15.7% from the same month last year. Inventory is now at the highest level since May 2020 — and it’s clearly taking the pressure off prices. Sales of previously owned homes rose 2% in July compared with June to 4.01 million units, on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of realtors. Housing analysts had been expecting a slight decline. Sales were 0.8% higher than July 2024. These sales are counted by closings, so contacts likely signed in May and June, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was in decline. That rate exceeded 7% briefly in May and then ended June at 6.67%, according to Mortgage News Daily. There were 1.55 million homes for sale at the end of July, an increase of 15.7% from the same month last year. At the current sales pace, that represents a 4.6-month supply. A 6-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller. Inventory is now at the highest level since May 2020 but still well below pre-Covid years. More inventory is clearly taking the pressure off prices. The median price of an existing home sold in July was $422,400, an increase of 0.2% from the same month a year earlier and a record high price for the month of July. Prices have been higher annually for the last 25 months, but the market may now be at an inflection point. “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.” Yun noted that condominium sales increased in the South, where prices have been falling for the past year. Activity continues to be strongest on the higher end of the market. Sales of homes priced over $1 million rose 7.1% year over year, while sales priced between $100,000 and $250,000 dropped 0.1%. Sales of homes priced below $100,000 dropped 8%. It is now taking longer for homes to sell. The average home in July sold in 28 days, up from 24 days the year before. First-time buyers also fell off slightly, representing 28% of sales, down from 30% in June and 29% in July 2024. Investors made up 20% of all transactions, up from 13% in July 2024. This could be due to the increase in supply. With mortgage rates still relatively high, the share of all-cash buyers increased to 31% of transactions from 27% the year before. “This is unusually high,” said Yun, noting stock market wealth or housing wealth could be contributing factors." MY COMMENT Some new trends in the housing markets over the past years. First the all cash buyer is now a dominant factor in the markets. In the old days.....the 1950's through about 2000.....all cash buyers were much more rare. Now they are over 30% of buyers. Another big trend......investors and institutional buyers buying up single family homes.
The markets are making a move at.....GREEN....right now. They are not there yet...... but are close. I have ZERO doubt that the medium to long term market direction is STILL STRONGLY to the upside. The BULL MARKET is fully alive and well. I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
It appears that the markets are now moving on from the SEINFELD drop of the past few days......a market move based on..... NOTHING. At some point in the near future we MIGHT see a market based on.....GASP.....reality. Probably next week...... when NVDA reports. Although as usual, l I NEVER underestimate the ability of the media and the markets to totally discount good earnings news.....especially with NVDA.
A SMALL loss for me today even though I had ONLY one stock in the green....GOOGL. the rest....very mild losses for the most part. I also lost out to the SP500 today by....0.11%. I am so glad that I have been tied up elsewhere the past few days including today.....watching the markets this week is simply a big WASTE of time. Glad to get the week over tomorrow and move on.
